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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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KeijiKG said:
Nothing about that was "quick". It took a whole-arse sentence to even get to your first question and there was a chain of questions.

We need to kill the statement "quick question", it's the biggest social lie of our time.
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Quick question:
How?
 
LiC said:
Here's the quote: "You know, I said this on the Bombcast, that does line up with what I've heard, pretty much all year. That there would be some sort of announcement this-- second half, into summer, basically, is what I've heard all year. It's hard to know for sure what's accurate there, but I'll just say again, I've heard that all year."

Not entirely clear what "this -- second half, into summer, basically" means. Is the Bombcast referring to the thing from a few months back where he said it might get announced this year (also said he thought there was a 15% chance of it launching this year)? Or something more recent?

Anyway, exact timing aside, he seems to think Nintendo will talk about it before the end of the year And if his info is correct, it should be noted that that cannot just mean acknowledging it exists in a press release, because nobody outside of senior management would have that information. Information on announcement timing could only leak out if there was an actual reveal planned (whether that's an October Switch reveal type thing, or a more full one).
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12 hours later and 4 pages unread still so this has probably been said already but...I hear "enda summer"
 
Quoted by: LiC
1
Pokemaniac said:
I don't think the idea of an announcement this year is especially compatible with a late 2024 release. Any announcement in that timeframe would be more suggestive of a late 2023 or early 2024 release, depending on exactly when it happens.
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Yeah, an announcement in the next month or so for a console not releasing until H2 2024 would be weird, so it feels like someone is wrong here. Switch showed that a short announcement to release cycle works, and I'd be very surprised if they announce the new hardware more than around 6 months before it launches.

Magic-Man said:
A summer announcement makes absolutely no sense. Grubb might just have a bad source. They're not announcing it before Super Mario Bros Wonder comes out.
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How many people do you think would hold off on buying Super Mario Bros Wonder because new hardware is coming out? I'd wager approximately zero. I could see the argument for graphical showcase games like Zelda or Metroid or whatever, but a 2D Mario isn't exactly the kind of thing people refuse to play if its not running on the latest and greatest hardware. Besides, Sony had their major PS4 blow-out event around a week before The Last of Us released, and then had their major PS5 blow-out around a week before The Last of Us Part 2 released. Both games sold extremely well, and there's no indication that next gen hardware announcements had any negative effect on their sales.
 
Hermii said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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Without a drop of optimisation or dedicated decompression hardware, it's playable on SD card. That's proof positive that such a game would have no issue on NG Switch, even off the SD Card.
 
Thraktor said:
Yeah, an announcement in the next month or so for a console not releasing until H2 2024 would be weird, so it feels like someone is wrong here. Switch showed that a short announcement to release cycle works, and I'd be very surprised if they announce the new hardware more than around 6 months before it launches.



How many people do you think would hold off on buying Super Mario Bros Wonder because new hardware is coming out? I'd wager approximately zero. I could see the argument for graphical showcase games like Zelda or Metroid or whatever, but a 2D Mario isn't exactly the kind of thing people refuse to play if its not running on the latest and greatest hardware. Besides, Sony had their major PS4 blow-out event around a week before The Last of Us released, and then had their major PS5 blow-out around a week before The Last of Us Part 2 released. Both games sold extremely well, and there's no indication that next gen hardware announcements had any negative effect on their sales.
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2023 is back on the menu, boys(et al.)!
 
Concernt said:
2023 is back on the menu, boys(et al.)!
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Well, with multiple outlets (including Eurogamer, who have a history of being very reliable on these things) claiming a 2024 launch, I'm more inclined to believe that Grubb's wrong. Or it's a Q1 2024 launch and they're just giving it a longer run-in than they did with Switch for some reason. Eurogamer explicitly said H2 2024, though.
 
Maybe Grubb is right and Nintendo intended to unveil the successor during the Summer, but the company changed plans and Grubb is acting on old intel.

Maybe VGC and Eurogamer are right, but are acting on fake intel from Nintendo, like Apple does to weed out leakers.

We don’t know.

What we do know is that the Switch’s five month unveil-event-release formula worked, and if anything, we could expect the very same thing happening. If a Summer 2023 unveil was meant to happen, then it was slated for the Holidays snd it was gonna use Gamescom and TGS as hands-on events for gamers. If it’s a March 2024 release, it could use the same Switch timeline. If it’s H2 2024, it could do a Summer timeline.

I honestly don’t know what to expect. What could help is to try and discern between leak and speculation
 
Well, there's still this supposed Totilo report about the Devkit stuff coming, but with japanese thirds in focus. And iirc Nate is dropping his video sometime today, so it's not like there's nothing coming up in regards to talking points.
 
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has any company ever revealed a new system at gamescom? It kinda feels like wishcasting because someone misses the big E3 reveals
 
Thraktor said:
Yeah, an announcement in the next month or so for a console not releasing until H2 2024 would be weird, so it feels like someone is wrong here. Switch showed that a short announcement to release cycle works, and I'd be very surprised if they announce the new hardware more than around 6 months before it launches.
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Before we go on I feel we should make sure everyone is on the same page with terminology. There were three stages to the Switch's pre-release lifecycle from my observations:
  • Announcement - Nintendo gave us the Switch's codename, NX, in 2015 - notably early because the Wii U was a massive bomba. This stage is just officially acknowledging the console's existence and nothing more.
  • Reveal - the famous Oct 2016 video with the rooftop party and the big Jan 2017 blowout. We're given official branding, the form factor and features of the console, games, and price at this stage.
  • Release - the Switch came out Mar 2017. This stage is the console being properly for sale.
imo, everything about the Switch's pre-release, not just the far in advance Announcement but also the brief Reveal-to-Release period, was unnatural due to the company's dire position and shouldn't be expected to repeat. It's also tempting to believe the whole thing about an early NSW2 Announcement killing Holiday sales - especially if it's over a year from Release - because the theory makes sense, but ultimately it's not supported by recent history. The PS5 had its Announcement ~1.5 years before release and PS4 sales remained strong to the point where Sony felt the need to temporarily restart supply chains post-Release while the PS5 dealt with shortages. Hell, we literally just had EA announce that their huge gen 9 AAA Star Wars game is going to be retroactively cross-gen. People may point to the 3DS -> NSW transition as a counterpoint, but the NSW had no BC while the NSW2 definitely will. Lastly, if NSW2 launches exclusively with LCDs, I can see Nintendo feeling comfortable enough with an Announcement a year ahead of time, since they can just tell people who want a premium experience to get a SwOLED during the cross-gen period.

TL;DR - for a variety of reasons, I think a brief window between an info blowout and release is improbable, and the idea that they would go from officially acknowledging the NSW2's existence to release within a few months (as floated around here before) is so ludicrous I would eat a hat if it happened
 
Paxie said:
TL;DR - for a variety of reasons, I think a brief window between an info blowout and release is improbable, and the idea that they would go from officially acknowledging the NSW2's existence to release within a few months (as floated around here before) is so ludicrous I would eat a hat if it happened
Click to expand...

First a pants-eating-bet, now a hat-eating bet.

Fami eating good today?

;] ^^
 
Paxie said:
TL;DR - for a variety of reasons, I think a brief window between an info blowout and release is improbable, and the idea that they would go from officially acknowledging the NSW2's existence to release within a few months (as floated around here before) is so ludicrous I would eat a hat if it happened
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I co-sign the eating of hats. Worst case scenario, I can, like, bake a brownie in the shape of a hat, right? Or eat a hat shaped chicken nugget?
 
casualreader said:
Exactly, my memory is probably not serving me right, but a quick question for those who remember:
We are at a point now where the console is out in more people's hands, and it does not seem that far off that we ll get info on the features, which we got last time in July 2016, with a reveal that followed a few months after.
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Tricky question to answer with just public data. The earliest production date on a "final" devkit is (I believe) July of 2016. By November of 2016, Nintendo was making devkits in batches of thousands. Worth noting that Nintendo was really trying for an October 2016 release, and had to delay for software, not hardware, related reasons.


maidhhc said:
Has there been any discussion of LK-99 here yet? Imagine what it could mean for handheld gaming 10-15 years down the line.
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I'm very excited for the lurking group of material physicists Nintendo fans to finally start contributing to this thread ;) For me, I'll wait till someone actually confirms SC.
 
oldpuck said:
Tricky question to answer with just public data. The earliest production date on a "final" devkit is (I believe) July of 2016. By November of 2016, Nintendo was making devkits in batches of thousands. Worth noting that Nintendo was really trying for an October 2016 release, and had to delay for software, not hardware, related reasons.



I'm very excited for the lurking group of material physicists Nintendo fans to finally start contributing to this thread ;) For me, I'll wait till someone actually confirms SC.
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EU before LK-99:

All portable devices must have a replaceable battery by 2027.

EU after LK-99:

You know what? We're good, forget what we were saying before.

;D
 
If anything happens at all, I'm expecting to be a bare minimum "confirming its existence" type of announcement. It's basically being done via leaks/reports right now, so a "it's real, please stay tuned" statement around Gamescom time seems feasible to me.
 
Thraktor said:
Well, with multiple outlets (including Eurogamer, who have a history of being very reliable on these things) claiming a 2024 launch, I'm more inclined to believe that Grubb's wrong. Or it's a Q1 2024 launch and they're just giving it a longer run-in than they did with Switch for some reason. Eurogamer explicitly said H2 2024, though.
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Eurogamer, famously never incorrect.

My current thoughts though would probably be an early 2024 launch, before the end of the fiscal year, with an announcement really soon. It wouldn't be that unusual for the windup to be a LITTLE longer than last gen.

Especially since they more or less announced Switch the moment it went into production to reduce leaks, and they've announced they would like to have a LOT of stock ready for the next gen at launch. So they would NEED to announce it earlier to have enough stock ready.
 
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Paxie said:
Before we go on I feel we should make sure everyone is on the same page with terminology. There were three stages to the Switch's pre-release lifecycle from my observations:
  • Announcement - Nintendo gave us the Switch's codename, NX, in 2015 - notably early because the Wii U was a massive bomba. This stage is just officially acknowledging the console's existence and nothing more.
  • Reveal - the famous Oct 2016 video with the rooftop party and the big Jan 2017 blowout. We're given official branding, the form factor and features of the console, games, and price at this stage.
  • Release - the Switch came out Mar 2017. This stage is the console being properly for sale.
imo, everything about the Switch's pre-release, not just the far in advance Announcement but also the brief Reveal-to-Release period, was unnatural due to the company's dire position and shouldn't be expected to repeat. It's also tempting to believe the whole thing about an early NSW2 Announcement killing Holiday sales - especially if it's over a year from Release - because the theory makes sense, but ultimately it's not supported by recent history. The PS5 had its Announcement ~1.5 years before release and PS4 sales remained strong to the point where Sony felt the need to temporarily restart supply chains post-Release while the PS5 dealt with shortages. Hell, we literally just had EA announce that their huge gen 9 AAA Star Wars game is going to be retroactively cross-gen. People may point to the 3DS -> NSW transition as a counterpoint, but the NSW had no BC while the NSW2 definitely will. Lastly, if NSW2 launches exclusively with LCDs, I can see Nintendo feeling comfortable enough with an Announcement a year ahead of time, since they can just tell people who want a premium experience to get a SwOLED during the cross-gen period.

TL;DR - for a variety of reasons, I think a brief window between an info blowout and release is improbable, and the idea that they would go from officially acknowledging the NSW2's existence to release within a few months (as floated around here before) is so ludicrous I would eat a hat if it happened
Click to expand...

Okay, I'll put it this way, I would be surprised if Nintendo talk about Switch NG in any way more than 6 months before launch.

A lot of people seem convinced that Nintendo absolutely has to have a pre-reveal announcement that "we're making a new console called X" a long time before they actually reveal it, but I've heard no compelling arguments as to why. The only logic seems to be that they've done it before, which doesn't hold up at all.

Off the top of my head, here are the reasons I can think of that Nintendo would want a reasonable amount of time between initial announcement and launch:
  1. Show the console and convey the key selling points of it.
  2. Go into more detail on the hardware and confirm things like pricing.
  3. Provide time for media to have hands-on sessions with the hardware and report on it.
  4. Announce a line-up of games for the system.
  5. Go into detail on each of those games with trailers and playthrough videos.
  6. Provide time for the media to get hands on with each of those games and do previews on them.
  7. Start directly marketing the new hardware and games.
For Switch, the long pre-reveal announcement period did none of these things. The first point was covered by a short video four and a half months before release. Nintendo then said nothing for three months, and ran through all of points 2 to 7 within a month and a half before launch. Had there not been the long gap in the middle (presumably to avoid harming holiday sales of existing hardware), they could have achieved the same thing within 2 or 3 months.

Of course there were a couple of special cases for the Switch, most notably that Breath of the Wild had been announced several years previously for the Wii U (before Nintendo had even started real development on the Switch), which is why I'm inclined to believe they'll give more time for software announcements than they did with the Switch. At the same time, their time from announcing to releasing games is currently averaging under 6 months, so Nintendo are hardly acting like a company who feel the need for a lot of time to promote their games.
 
Paxie said:
It's also tempting to believe the whole thing about an early NSW2 Announcement killing Holiday sales - especially if it's over a year from Release - because the theory makes sense, but ultimately it's not supported by recent history. The PS5 had its Announcement ~1.5 years before release and PS4 sales remained strong to the point where Sony felt the need to temporarily restart supply chains post-Release while the PS5 dealt with shortages.
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Continued sales of a legacy product is different from a "lame duck" period. The last two quarters of calendar 2018 for PS4 were 3.9m and 8.1m. The same two quarters the next year were 2.8m and 6.0m. DS's last two quarters of calendar 2009 were 5.73m and 11.65m. The next year with 3DS on the horizon, 3.54m and 9.01m. How much we can attribute to natural slowdown with age and how much to knowledge of the next thing, we can only guess.
 
NintendoMariah said:
https://mynintendonews.com/2023/08/...-announce-next-system-at-gamescom-this-month/

I’m getting a bit too excited now
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NintendoMariah said:
The offical source

www.startmenu.co.uk

Report: Nintendo Could Confirm New Hardware As Soon The End Of August — startmenu

It seems like confirmation of the Switch follow-up could be coming sooner, rather than later.
www.startmenu.co.uk www.startmenu.co.uk
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slowpoke.jpg

Hosermess said:
12 hours later and 4 pages unread still so this has probably been said already but...I hear "enda summer"
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Ah, that could be. Though it doesn't really change the meaning, given that he seems to think August is possible.
 
Dark Cloud said:
Good to see Nate understands you don’t launch with Mario Kart (they’ve never done that and won’t now). 3D Mario in the holidays and Mario Kart by March 2025.
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Their launch Mario Kart is a 4K patch for Deluxe, same for 3 being their launch Splatoon, etc.

I'd bet my pension.
 
There is no reason for this console to be announced in 2023. It isn't coming out until H2 2024. There is 0 value in talking about it now. I would expect that they will say something about working on new hardware in Feb 2024 in there Q3 fiscal report. Nothing is going to be discussed this year.
 
Concernt said:
Their launch Mario Kart is a 4K patch for Deluxe, same for 3 being their launch Splatoon, etc.

I'd bet my pension.
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So one eating-pants bet, two eating-hat bets, and now one pension bet.

Fami, we gotta have a serious talk about gambling.
 
Hermii said:
Disagree. MK is an evergreen that will sell well the entire generation. Should be launched as early as possible, as 8 Deluxe proved.
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You don’t need it for the holidays. 3D Mario and Pokémon are huge games too. They will carry holiday 2024. You need the next big thing for early 2025 and that’s where Mario Kart comes in. I mean we’re only talking about possibly 4-5 months after launch lol.
 
Hermii said:
Disagree. MK is an evergreen that will sell well the entire generation. Should be launched as early as possible, as 8 Deluxe proved.
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That's... not really disagreeing. 8 Deluxe is a perfect example of being early but not exactly a launch game. A late 2024 hardware release and early 2025 Mario Kart wouldn't be much different.
 
how much battery life can we expect for the Switch sucessor? is gonna be like Switch V1 or Switch V2/OLED in term of battey life?(i hoping for the latter, given that the console will problaby have ports of PS5, Xbox Series S/X in the future and will have upcalled 4K trough DSLL)
 
Pacobob said:
I think switch 2 will be more powerful than the current switch, it's essential
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proxy-image
 
Thraktor said:
Okay, I'll put it this way, I would be surprised if Nintendo talk about Switch NG in any way more than 6 months before launch.

A lot of people seem convinced that Nintendo absolutely has to have a pre-reveal announcement that "we're making a new console called X" a long time before they actually reveal it, but I've heard no compelling arguments as to why. The only logic seems to be that they've done it before, which doesn't hold up at all.

Off the top of my head, here are the reasons I can think of that Nintendo would want a reasonable amount of time between initial announcement and launch:
  1. Show the console and convey the key selling points of it.
  2. Go into more detail on the hardware and confirm things like pricing.
  3. Provide time for media to have hands-on sessions with the hardware and report on it.
  4. Announce a line-up of games for the system.
  5. Go into detail on each of those games with trailers and playthrough videos.
  6. Provide time for the media to get hands on with each of those games and do previews on them.
  7. Start directly marketing the new hardware and games.
For Switch, the long pre-reveal announcement period did none of these things. The first point was covered by a short video four and a half months before release. Nintendo then said nothing for three months, and ran through all of points 2 to 7 within a month and a half before launch. Had there not been the long gap in the middle (presumably to avoid harming holiday sales of existing hardware), they could have achieved the same thing within 2 or 3 months.

Of course there were a couple of special cases for the Switch, most notably that Breath of the Wild had been announced several years previously for the Wii U (before Nintendo had even started real development on the Switch), which is why I'm inclined to believe they'll give more time for software announcements than they did with the Switch. At the same time, their time from announcing to releasing games is currently averaging under 6 months, so Nintendo are hardly acting like a company who feel the need for a lot of time to promote their games.
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I can see them mushing the official acknowledgment and initial reveal together and have it 6-8 months before launch. Going through points 2-7 in not even 2 months sounds seriously chaotic and I personally doubt they would want to repeat that needlessly. Also, my personal interpretation of having a decent lead time for the acknowledgment is so that investors don't feel out of the loop and Nintendo can get ahead of leaks without putting in the time to make a big promotional video. FWIW I see the maximum lead time for Announcement as 8-12 months.
 
0
Magic-Man said:
A summer announcement makes absolutely no sense. Grubb might just have a bad source. They're not announcing it before Super Mario Bros Wonder comes out.
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Nintendo publishes a dozen games every year.
By that logic, they would never announce new hardware because there's always some good games releasing in the next 6 months.

Thraktor said:
Well, with multiple outlets (including Eurogamer, who have a history of being very reliable on these things) claiming a 2024 launch, I'm more inclined to believe that Grubb's wrong. Or it's a Q1 2024 launch and they're just giving it a longer run-in than they did with Switch for some reason. Eurogamer explicitly said H2 2024, though.
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Eurogamers got the info from western third-parties.
IMO, It's possible Nintendo told those to target a later release window.
There could be a few reasons for that:
  • Reserve the launch window for first-parties and partners to have high attach rates
  • Stagger releases so hardware demand do not far out weight supply
  • Give time to properly scale NG carts manufacturing, otherwise there wouldn't be enough
  • etc ...
 
NintenDuvo said:
I personally would be a very contempt with a "The next generation of Nintendo Switch is coming in 2024" as the only info we receive from Nintendo themselves until early next year
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Nintendo: Nintendo Switch future will be know in 2024 or the next-generation hardware or something is in development,
 
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