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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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fwd-bwd said:
Here’s my compiled list of Switch NG release window offered by notable publications and individuals. Let me know if I missed any noteworthy sources.

[Publications]
VGC: “second half of 2024”
Nikkei Shimbun column (not report): “the industry” expecting “second half of 2024”
Nikkei Asia: “next spring at the earliest”
TechInsights: “March or April next year”
MoneyDJ: “Q1 next year” (Foxconn’s FY starts in January)

[Individuals]
Nate: “informed speculation” being “late 2024” (not sure if the recent bird songs changed his mind)
NWeedle: “before summer”
Pokemon leaker: “early 2024”
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Excluding a summer launch, the most plausible solution, IMO, seems to be a launch between September (the end) and November.

With official announcement and presentation before the summer months.

edit: If September's is indeed the last Switch Direct, I imagine that early in 2024 we could already have the first 'hybrid' Direct with a separate presentation.
 
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casualreader said:
Not necessarily a question for you (eg more backward than forward looking), but do we remember when production started for switch 1? If it started around the same time, then even if they want more stock a release in H1 seems plausible.
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So I don't know if the production start is full scale production or beginning of ramp up, if we are talking full scale for both. Switch was at full scale production in October 2016 and this would suggest Switch 2 is at full scale production in either November or December... Ramp up only takes about a month, but the real question that we discussed a few weeks ago, is if stockpiling the system at all makes sense? Wouldn't it make more sense/cost less money to produce up to 50k a day at full scale? that is 1.5M units a month, which with a May release would be over 6M units at launch regardless of logistics.

This production timing, the Pokemon DLC 4chan leak, and the timing the chip was finalized, suggests to me that we are looking at a first half release for the system, the evidence against it? People predicting what Nintendo might do... I will say that a September launch is possible with these production numbers if they want to produce a lot of Switch 1 units next year and just don't have the production to produce 40k+ units a day, but that seems silly when they are targeting just 15M units this year and releasing Switch 2 sometime next year, they have to figure a lower production number needed for Switch.
 
Bonejack said:
Well assuming Z0m3le's infos are legit, this certainly sounds (to me) that it's rather H1 2024 than H2.

Though, H1 could mean up to June.
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I think I am remaining open to July, August and September with that production being correct, simply because they could be using ramp up, and if so, full production could be January, which 7 to 9 months of production before launch isn't CRAZY, however, I don't see the reason why Nintendo would be obsessed with 2H when Switch was sold out throughout 2017 with a March launch and sold 17.78M units from launch to end of full FY. If they just increased production by 50%, they could have easily broke 20M units first year, and I suspect that is the goal with Switch 2.
 
necrolipe said:
I'm expecting a modestly supply for H1 2024 launch
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b2e.png
 
I think some weeks back we had some info regarding Switch production times being around 6 months?, with even people checking their units through some homebrew tools.

I'll check the thread and link them here when I found the info.

Edit (some useful posts):

ZachyCatGames said:
Alright, yeah, initial production in August with increases through October seems reasonable.


You're good ^^

btw curious how many people on here have launch consoles, might be fun to collect some stats on manufacturing dates.
Nintendo's factory tests output logs to the PRODINFOF partition and include dates, though they can be dubious.
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ZachyCatGames said:
Yeah

thx ^^

I'll throw my own in too:
Code: 
BOARD_TEST,LINE,01.15,OK,,2016/07/20,18:49,0000000,E4B2,D30C,"",
BOARD_WIRELESS,LINE,01.03,OK,,2017/02/09,08:50,,,,"OK!",
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oldpuck said:
Tricky question to answer with just public data. The earliest production date on a "final" devkit is (I believe) July of 2016. By November of 2016, Nintendo was making devkits in batches of thousands. Worth noting that Nintendo was really trying for an October 2016 release, and had to delay for software, not hardware, related reasons.
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Z0m3le said:
I actually think OLED models will EOL to produce Switch 2, they won't want to compete with themselves and the V2 model can be a budget price while keeping higher profits, while the Lite model needs to be replaced for a new entry level model to drive sales in the cross gen period... I'd expect a new entry level handheld Switch gen1 to exist sometime next year, probably months after Switch 2 releases, to drive sales of aging Switch hardware at the $199 price point, because Switch 2 will cost $399... Someone brought up the price in yen at 60000 or whatever, but if the OLED model doesn't have a problem selling, then Switch 2 shouldn't either.
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Nintendo will problaby discontinue Switch/Switch V2, replace it with Switch OLED and Switch Lite, so when Switch sucessor launch next year, Nintendo is gonna have Switch Lite e Switch OLED selling along side it next hardware.
 
ooh fam stuff is moving. Birds are singing. I’m getting hyped. Sounds like we’re going to learn some stuff (officially or otherwise) sooner rather than later, and that’s exciting

I could see a Game Awards reveal, January long-form Presentation, March release. They won’t have enough units made by then, but when has Nintendo ever shied away from not having enough supply to meet demand? They love those “New Nintendo Console Sells Out” headlines.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I don't know if the production start is full scale production or beginning of ramp up, if we are talking full scale for both. Switch was at full scale production in October 2016 and this would suggest Switch 2 is at full scale production in either November or December... Ramp up only takes about a month, but the real question that we discussed a few weeks ago, is if stockpiling the system at all makes sense? Wouldn't it make more sense/cost less money to produce up to 50k a day at full scale? that is 1.5M units a month, which with a May release would be over 6M units at launch regardless of logistics.

This production timing, the Pokemon DLC 4chan leak, and the timing the chip was finalized, suggests to me that we are looking at a first half release for the system, the evidence against it? People predicting what Nintendo might do... I will say that a September launch is possible with these production numbers if they want to produce a lot of Switch 1 units next year and just don't have the production to produce 40k+ units a day, but that seems silly when they are targeting just 15M units this year and releasing Switch 2 sometime next year, they have to figure a lower production number needed for Switch.
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if Nintendo next hardware in Q1 2024, Nintendo would need to reveal the console sooner, for everyone to pre-order the console
 
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Remember people software sells HW.

Nintendo wants a robust launch lineup, they can easily stockpile Switch NG to be release later 2024 with a 3D Mario and third party heavy hitters like COD, FIFA, Madden, etc.

It already happened with last Switch, that they aimed for a late 2016 launch but needed to delay it a few months due ti software not being ready.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m going to ask an intentionally dumb question because while I could Google this, but I’d prefer to have the thoughts of people that were actually there or around the time. Anyway, here goes: has any game ever been overshadowed by the announcement of a new platform? Or are people remembering certain games that weren’t going to sell very well regardless and combining the announcements of launching new hardware around the launch of a new game as overshadowing the games’ release?

Is there any evidence of a game being overshadowed at all? Is there evidence of games performing better?


is there any evidence of any of this having correlation with the other or is this one of those internet things that only exist in the internet bubble

I ask because I find the idea of announcing a new game console that aims to succeed the platform around the time a game launches on the predecessor platform as having any effect on sales of the game to be bizarre.
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FF9 got overshadowed by PS2 and FF10.

I think? It certainly feel like that from the sales numbers and from the discourse back then
 
Lugia667 said:
I doubt they are gonna let Geoff reveal it for some reason
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This unit is, at launch, going to appeal to the video game enthusiast market. The Game Awards has millions of game enthusiast viewers every year, with the number growing year after year. Sure they haven’t done much with Keighley in recent years but it’s a venue to announce their new hardware that has, guaranteed, millions of eyeballs on it.
 
Giancarlo said:
Nintendo will problaby discontinue Switch/Switch V2, replace it with Switch OLED and Switch Lite, so when Switch sucessor launch next year, Nintendo is gonna have Switch Lite e Switch OLED selling along side it next hardware.
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Discontinue the OLED and lite then just make the V2 imo. They're gonna want to sell us the OLED screen in another console eventually. Most boring option makes the most sense to put next to the Switch 2.

This unit is, at launch, going to appeal to the video game enthusiast market. The Game Awards has millions of game enthusiast viewers every year, with the number growing year after year. Sure they haven’t done much with Keighley in recent years but it’s a venue to announce their new hardware that has, guaranteed, millions of eyeballs on it.
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Nintendo's teaser tweet would have just as many eyes on it. It'd also be interesting if TOTK doesn't win GOTY then they have to go up on stage and announce a new console. Too many random factors. I could see them announcing it earlier then putting out a game awards trailer for it or something though as an overview then have 3rd parties announce games for it.
 
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Derachi said:
This unit is, at launch, going to appeal to the video game enthusiast market. The Game Awards has millions of game enthusiast viewers every year, with the number growing year after year. Sure they haven’t done much with Keighley in recent years but it’s a venue to announce their new hardware that has, guaranteed, millions of eyeballs on it.
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That same group are glued to outlets who won't shut the fuck up about the reveal, whenever it happens, and would have hands on. Not to mention Nintendo still targets other outlets that go beyond the hardcore bubble
 
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It’s so weird that as big as the Switch is, this successor might be Nintendos biggest launch/console ever

How exciting to be apart of history

God I hope they perfect it.
 
Bonejack said:
You know the problem with "enough stock" is ... there won't be enough stock, no matter how long they would wait. (In a sensible timeframe, not "lets wait 2 years and produce as much during that time")

Assuming a global launch and assuming Nintendo didn't fumble again like they did from Wii to Wii U, the demand for this thing would be so high, that it will sell out no matter what.
And even if it's not purely by demand (never will be, realistically), then scalpers will do it.

They can (should and likely will) wait for a "reasonable" amount of units, but i don't think any suit there thinks they can avoid initial stock issues.
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Agreed. Waiting until you have enough stock on hand for consumers is like a couple waiting to have kids until they can afford it. My own parents even said if you wait to have kids until you can afford it, you will never have kids.

You could say my brothers and I were not cheap. 😜
 
I don't see them revealing it at TGA under any circumstances. Above all else Nintendo always wants complete control over their messaging, giving the reveal to Geoff would not allow for that.
 
Bonejack said:
I promise less ad breaks and less Hollywood people on stage. And no Kojima. But lots of Suda51.
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Okay, now maybe I'll put the campaign in twitter as well, so there's a chance that 20 people will see it in the end! And maybe 3 of those care about videogames at all.
 
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NintendoMariah said:
It’s so weird that as big as the Switch is, this successor might be Nintendos biggest launch/console ever

How exciting to be apart of history

God I hope they perfect it.
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I think it all depends on the 3D Mario

If it looks as good as Odyssey, it’s going to be huge

But if it looks even better, like reviews as well as Breath of the Wild, then we’re in for a landmark moment

A botw tier Mario + a wholly Mario Kart + coming off the ultra successful Switch instead of the Wii U = potential for the launch to exceed even the that of Switch

I don’t know if we can ever get to Wii Launch Hype territory again, but this has the potential to be it
 
The only source I can find on the OG Switch's manufacturing timeline is MoneyDJ claiming it began production in March of 2016, but it seems to be widely held that the device was kept back for some time to allow for further development of the titles to come with it - how long? From other consoles and recently the PS Portal - having entered production around May or June and was subject to a factory leak in July - which is on track for a November/December release, it seems to be the norm that manufacturing begins around half a year ahead of intended release, so it's likely the case that the Switch was initially intended to release around October 2016 but had to wait for its biggest hitters

Assuming the software lineup is already there (which I have no doubt considering the first reports of the T239's existence and 'next-gen Nintendo games' came over two years ago), and if production is beginning in December, it looks like H1/Q2/sometime in spring is the most likely target release window, with all this talk of a potential October confirmation of the next-gen's existence or a first glimpse followed by an early 2024 Presents event, it's starting to feel like the best kind of déjà vu
 
GigaUltraMoon said:
The only source I can find on the OG Switch's manufacturing timeline is MoneyDJ claiming it began production in March of 2016, but it seems to be widely held that the device was kept back for some time to allow for further development of the titles to come with it - how long? From other consoles and recently the PS Portal - having entered production around May or June and was subject to a factory leak in July - which is on track for a November/December release, it seems to be the norm that manufacturing begins around half a year ahead of intended release, so it's likely the case that the Switch was initially intended to release around October 2016 but had to wait for its biggest hitters

Assuming the software lineup is already there (which I have no doubt considering the first reports of the T239's existence and 'next-gen Nintendo games' came over two years ago), and if production is beginning in December, it looks like H1/Q2/sometime in spring is the most likely target release window, with all this talk of a potential October confirmation of the next-gen's existence or a first glimpse followed by an early 2024 Presents event, it's starting to feel like the best kind of déjà vu
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Supposedly it was supposed to launch around November 2016 but held back until Zelda could launch with it.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I don't know if the production start is full scale production or beginning of ramp up, if we are talking full scale for both. Switch was at full scale production in October 2016 and this would suggest Switch 2 is at full scale production in either November or December... Ramp up only takes about a month, but the real question that we discussed a few weeks ago, is if stockpiling the system at all makes sense? Wouldn't it make more sense/cost less money to produce up to 50k a day at full scale? that is 1.5M units a month, which with a May release would be over 6M units at launch regardless of logistics.

This production timing, the Pokemon DLC 4chan leak, and the timing the chip was finalized, suggests to me that we are looking at a first half release for the system, the evidence against it? People predicting what Nintendo might do... I will say that a September launch is possible with these production numbers if they want to produce a lot of Switch 1 units next year and just don't have the production to produce 40k+ units a day, but that seems silly when they are targeting just 15M units this year and releasing Switch 2 sometime next year, they have to figure a lower production number needed for Switch.
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Danke.
And point well taken on the H1 release, really hoping they read you :)
In any case, bodes really well for an upcoming presentation, starting to be convinced that by early next year we ll know everything, and from official sources no less.
 
Teal'c said:
if it had started in May, wouldn't we already have leaks?
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If we trust the "funcles" we already HAVE. Production doesn't mean finished units and they're likely kept somewhere where photography is difficult or impossible. So all we can really expect until the official announcement, IMO, is vague descriptions, or at most a rough drawing.
 
eye0h said:
Quite the blanket statement. We also have only heard a few people say H1 while others are saying H2.
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I'd say it's an even split on rumors for H1 vs H2. Most of the H1 talk seems to be coming from Asian sources while the H2 talk seems to be western sources.

No idea if that means anything.
 
People should be wary because some posters have a prolific track record of reporting these same 'imminent announcement/release' stories over and over.

I don't want to name names, but one poster who is making such statements about an earlier release stated a couple of months back that they believed the Switch 2 announcement was 'imminent' and likely for July and earlier this year they were insistent the Switch 2 chip was in full production and that meant the hardware was definitely coming in the next months - possibly with Tears of the Kingdom. Before that the hardware was definitely coming in 2022.

If we get the Switch 2 earlier than H1 2024 see it as a bonus. All the stronger sources though seem to think it's going to be H2 2024 and I've seen absolutely nothing as yet to suggest that they're wrong. Obviously, I'd love for it to be H1 2024 as well, but there's nothing indicating to me that this will be the case.
 
Skittzo said:
I'd say it's an even split on rumors for H1 vs H2. Most of the H1 talk seems to be coming from Asian sources while the H2 talk seems to be western sources.

No idea if that means anything.
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Given how western third parties have always been wish-washy with Nintendo, while Nintendo is basically the only player in the game at this point in Japan, I imagine JP devs are in from the jump while western devs are playing it safe by waiting for an audience to build. Thus, I'm leaning on the more optimistic side and say we're looking at an H1 (Mar-May specifically) release most likely
 
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Concernt said:
If we trust the "funcles" we already HAVE. Production doesn't mean finished units and they're likely kept somewhere where photography is difficult or impossible. So all we can really expect until the official announcement, IMO, is vague descriptions, or at most a rough drawing.
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I see.
So we are talking about finished product but not in mass production, which might (or might not) start in late 2023👍
 
Teal'c said:
I see.
So we are talking about finished product but not in mass production, which might (or might not) start in late 2023👍
Click to expand...

It might indeed, or it might not.

My money would be towards production starting sooner than later.
 
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