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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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LoneRanger said:
If I were an gaming news site, I would simply report without going in too much specifics about how does next Switch stands versus current and last gen consoles in terms of raw power and considering DLSS/RT. Would not go into details like clock speeds or RAM, just generally what we can expect regarding third party support.
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Or make a drawing.
 
I don’t really think we’ll get anything before October. Sounds far enough from GamesCom & TGS for people to not feel too much under scrutiny.
 
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While i would be happy if we could get at least some informations this year i don't think that's gonna happen. Nintendo wants to milk the Switch as much as possible in its last year and they can't afford to lose potential buyers this holiday season by announcing the successor too early. I can totally see them doing a full on Direct exclusively for the successor and its launch lineup in summer 2024, if it launches in H2 2024 that is. At best we'll get a Direct sometime this year for the remainder of 2023 and Q1 2024 but not anything past that, which is fine for me. 2023 is already stacked as is with games i'm currently playing or want to play such as Baldur's Gate 3, Armored Core 6, Mario Bros. Wonder, Sonic Superstars, the list goes on...
 
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If the info spread out to the point of reaching Jez, I am expecting someone to spill the beans sooner rather than later. It might not be a report from the press but more of someone sharing what they have heard.
 
Dark Cloud said:
Don’t people leak this stuff on Reddit or somewhere anonymous that it can’t be traced to them?
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I think the most anonymous way to leak stuff would be to talk to a journalist about it (assuming that you're a dev that have infos) since your anonymity is then protected by law. But regardless of where the leak comes from, if it happens too early, I imagine Nintendo can more or less trace it back to the source. Depends on how many people are in on the secret.
 
Party Sklar said:
I think the most anonymous way to leak stuff would be to talk to a journalist about it (assuming that you're a dev that have infos) since your anonymity is then protected by law. But regardless of where the leak comes from, if it happens too early, I imagine Nintendo can more or less trace it back to the source. Depends on how many people are in on the secret.
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Yeah Imagine if Nintendo told you different info each, it will easily be traced back lmao.
 
knowing that people know stuff but also knowing that they can't let us know what they know is so boring
 
oldpuck said:
I'm just bringing this up because it's worth remembering in the wake of this thing. There is a huge gap between "some folks were gossiping about what they heard" and "some folks managed to sneak a peak despite not being explicitly invited" and "official press reveal."

Right now were in full on game-of-telephone, what was gossip at Gamescom is now heresay amongst folks who weren't there. Gamescom was recent enough that anyone who does have a solid picture of what was revealed can't say so without burning sources. Wider distribution of devkits and/or similar presentations at TGS will widen the group of "in the know" folk, and reduce the heat.
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I mean, technically i was correct with that Jez tweet. That came very fast after Gamescom. ;D (I also believe he was at Gamescom, though very likely not at any Nintendo related things. But hey, i said technically!)

;D

It's just that, imo, Gamescom is a very "unsafe" event for stuff that's still not official and under heavy NDAs. I would expect Nintendo, even the sometimes strange german branch, to invite partners / press to their Frankfurt HQ (or the London one) for anything that's more than telling devs "Oh yeah btw., Switch 2 is a thing, just for your info.".

Easier to control the info and who has access to it this way.

eye0h said:
knowing that people know stuff but also knowing that they can't let us know what they know is so boring
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Someone needs to make an AI tool that creates an impossible to trace amount of throwaway accounts and also obfuscates the info enough so that it can't be tracked back to any talk that happened. ;D
 
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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I think production this year is unlikely if the plan is late 2024. I also don't think we'll get an announcement at all this year if September goes by without one. Even then it would be a 'we're working on a new consoles. Stay turned to hear more in 2024' at the absolute maximum. I know you're a 'it's definitely coming out in the next 6 months - this time' kind of guy, so I think that could be swaying your thoughts on the situation.
 
I’m going to ask an intentionally dumb question because while I could Google this, but I’d prefer to have the thoughts of people that were actually there or around the time. Anyway, here goes: has any game ever been overshadowed by the announcement of a new platform? Or are people remembering certain games that weren’t going to sell very well regardless and combining the announcements of launching new hardware around the launch of a new game as overshadowing the games’ release?

Is there any evidence of a game being overshadowed at all? Is there evidence of games performing better?


is there any evidence of any of this having correlation with the other or is this one of those internet things that only exist in the internet bubble

I ask because I find the idea of announcing a new game console that aims to succeed the platform around the time a game launches on the predecessor platform as having any effect on sales of the game to be bizarre.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m going to ask an intentionally dumb question because while I could Google this, but I’d prefer to have the thoughts of people that were actually there or around the time. Anyway, here goes: has any game ever been overshadowed by the announcement of a new platform? Or are people remembering certain games that weren’t going to sell very well regardless and combining the announcements of launching new hardware around the launch of a new game as overshadowing the games’ release?

Is there any evidence of a game being overshadowed at all? Is there evidence of games performing better?


is there any evidence of any of this having correlation with the other or is this one of those internet things that only exist in the internet bubble

I ask because I find the idea of announcing a new game console that aims to succeed the platform around the time a game launches on the predecessor platform as having any effect on sales of the game to be bizarre.
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I think hardware launches have overshadowed, at least somewhat, games from prior generations, although not necessarily involving the same companies. Some late N64 releases didn't hit quite as hard when the Dreamcast and the shadow of the PS2 were looming for example. I guess you could also argue that something like 'Metroid: Samus Returns' was overshadowed by the Switch, but the Switch had already been released.

Something like 'The Last of Us' is a great example of a game not being overshadowed by new hardware however. This game was released 6 months or so before the PS4 was due to be released and when hype was really building for that new piece of hardware. The game then came out to great reviews and sales and served as a fantastic send off for the Playstation 3.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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Thanks, I didn't realise you were an insider.
 
Thinking about it, starting production in early December makes a lot of sense, as they will have shipped as many Switches as they could for the holiday season, so moving one of those lines to start ramping up production of Switch 2, well that takes a couple months, so early February they could be at full scale production making 20-30k units a day, by September they could release the Switch 2 with 6 Million units, and be just in time to double production in the holiday months to push another 6 Million out before the end of the calendar year. May makes more sense to me, but September is doable.
YolkFolk said:
I think production this year is unlikely if the plan is late 2024. I also don't think we'll get an announcement at all this year if September goes by without one. Even then it would be a 'we're working on a new consoles. Stay turned to hear more in 2024' at the absolute maximum. I know you're a 'it's definitely coming out in the next 6 months - this time' kind of guy, so I think that could be swaying your thoughts on the situation.
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No, I'm not. I actually think it's coming in either Spring or Fall 2024. Having said that, I'm reporting what is being said by people with sources. I'm not an insider, so I am just collecting info and sharing it when it is safe. What I said above is that this year they could announce a reveal date for next year, pretty much 'we're working on a new console. Stay tuned to hear more in 2024' only with a date of that reveal. Personally if it doesn't come by May, like I think (because that would line up with a Pokemon DLC getting support a little early but after it's revealed, and Zelda DLC that is expected in the first 12 months... If that doesn't happen then? I'm 39 years old, I will blink and summer will have come and passed, it's not a big deal if it's first half or second half to me, honestly I just want to see the thing at this point.

Armoured_Bear said:
Thanks, I didn't realise you were an insider.
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Oh yeah, I'm the most inside person on the internet, I'm changing my name to Introspective.
 
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Here’s my compiled list of Switch NG release window offered by notable publications and individuals. Let me know if I missed any noteworthy sources.

[Publications]
VGC: “second half of 2024”
Nikkei Shimbun column (not report): “the industry” expecting “second half of 2024”
Nikkei Asia: “next spring at the earliest”
TechInsights: “March or April next year”
MoneyDJ: “Q1 next year” (Foxconn’s FY starts in January)

[Individuals]
Nate: “informed speculation” being “late 2024” (not sure if the recent bird songs changed his mind)
NWeedle: “before summer”
Pokemon leaker: “early 2024”
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m going to ask an intentionally dumb question because while I could Google this, but I’d prefer to have the thoughts of people that were actually there or around the time. Anyway, here goes: has any game ever been overshadowed by the announcement of a new platform? Or are people remembering certain games that weren’t going to sell very well regardless and combining the announcements of launching new hardware around the launch of a new game as overshadowing the games’ release?

Is there any evidence of a game being overshadowed at all? Is there evidence of games performing better?


is there any evidence of any of this having correlation with the other or is this one of those internet things that only exist in the internet bubble

I ask because I find the idea of announcing a new game console that aims to succeed the platform around the time a game launches on the predecessor platform as having any effect on sales of the game to be bizarre.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's any evidence that software sales are affected by hardware announcements, as @YolkFolk mentioned The Last of Us is a good counter-example. In fact both The Last of Us and The Last Of Us 2 released around a week after Sony's major showcase of next-gen hardware, and both sold very well.

There's more evidence that hardware sales are affected by announcements, but it's difficult to say definitively, because at that point of a console's life you would expect sales to decline anyway. In Nintendo's case at the moment a lot of hardware sales are the OLED model, which might indicate a large number of people upgrading from the original Switch. I don't think people who are looking to buy a Switch for the first time in 2023 would be particularly likely to hold off to buy a Switch 2 on day one in 2024 instead, but I would imagine at least some of those who are upgrading to the OLED model would hold off for the Switch 2 if they knew it was coming. I could certainly see that having an impact on hardware sales.

At the same time, the existence of a new Switch could have the same effect even without an official announcement if details are leaked and widely reported. If the full details and launch window of Switch 2 get leaked and published on every gaming and tech site on the internet, then those enthusiasts who were going to upgrade to an OLED model may still hold off. In that case, there's an argument that Nintendo may want to just make it official and control the narrative.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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Thank you for this info, it's nice to know Nintendo seems to be gearing up for the release already. I sort of already expected them to be producing it this year, as we've all seen that they've definetly started to shift their focus from this generation to something new, as per the reduced releases and what seems to be "end-of-generation" software, so to speak. I guess we will see heavier leaks in the upcoming weeks, seeing how the presentation(s) aren't the most well kept secret.

May i ask though, where is Nintendo showing their products at Brazil in October? Is there some sort of event there, or is it some internal sort of thing? Nintendo has been building some sort of new "base" in LATAM with Brazil as their focus, as they have recently ramped up production, shipments and stockings in the country (as evidenced by the console & accessories like joy-con's prices dropping due to additional supply, and also by them expanding their operations, even offering Brazillian Portuguese language in their first-parties, like Pikmin 4, for the first time in years). Just curious on the logistics of it all.
 
Simbinha said:
Thank you for this info, it's nice to know Nintendo seems to be gearing up for the release already. I sort of already expected them to be producing it this year, as we've all seen that they've definetly started to shift their focus from this generation to something new, as per the reduced releases and what seems to be "end-of-generation" software, so to speak. I guess we will see heavier leaks in the upcoming weeks, seeing how the presentation(s) aren't the most well kept secret.

May i ask though, where is Nintendo showing their products at Brazil in October? Is there some sort of event there, or is it some internal sort of thing? Nintendo has been building some sort of new "base" in LATAM with Brazil as their focus, as they have recently ramped up production, shipments and stockings in the country (as evidenced by the console & accessories like joy-con's prices dropping due to additional supply, and also by them expanding their operations, even offering Brazillian Portuguese language in their first-parties, like Pikmin 4, for the first time in years). Just curious on the logistics of it all.
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Brasil Game Show
 
Simbinha said:
Thank you for this info, it's nice to know Nintendo seems to be gearing up for the release already. I sort of already expected them to be producing it this year, as we've all seen that they've definetly started to shift their focus from this generation to something new, as per the reduced releases and what seems to be "end-of-generation" software, so to speak. I guess we will see heavier leaks in the upcoming weeks, seeing how the presentation(s) aren't the most well kept secret.

May i ask though, where is Nintendo showing their products at Brazil in October? Is there some sort of event there, or is it some internal sort of thing? Nintendo has been building some sort of new "base" in LATAM with Brazil as their focus, as they have recently ramped up production, shipments and stockings in the country (as evidenced by the console & accessories like joy-con's prices dropping due to additional supply, and also by them expanding their operations, even offering Brazillian Portuguese language in their first-parties, like Pikmin 4, for the first time in years). Just curious on the logistics of it all.
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Nintendo always show something at Brasil Game Show
 
Giancarlo said:
Metroid Prime 4 might get a special edtion Switch/Switch OLED
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I actually think OLED models will EOL to produce Switch 2, they won't want to compete with themselves and the V2 model can be a budget price while keeping higher profits, while the Lite model needs to be replaced for a new entry level model to drive sales in the cross gen period... I'd expect a new entry level handheld Switch gen1 to exist sometime next year, probably months after Switch 2 releases, to drive sales of aging Switch hardware at the $199 price point, because Switch 2 will cost $399... Someone brought up the price in yen at 60000 or whatever, but if the OLED model doesn't have a problem selling, then Switch 2 shouldn't either.
 
Z0m3le said:
Thinking about it, starting production in early December makes a lot of sense, as they will have shipped as many Switches as they could for the holiday season, so moving one of those lines to start ramping up production of Switch 2, well that takes a couple months, so early February they could be at full scale production making 20-30k units a day, by September they could release the Switch 2 with 6 Million units, and be just in time to double production in the holiday months to push another 6 Million out before the end of the calendar year. May makes more sense to me, but September is doable.
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Given your production scenario, May would definitely be more in line with what previous fastest-shipping consoles had available early on. 12 million in ~4 months would be pretty nuts and the result of some overly aggressive stockpiling.
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Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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God is real. You think Nintendo might announce it in October? Similar to Switch 1?
 
One thing is true (and was said by Emily IIRC) is that Nintendo probably wants to avoid any stock issues that they did have with Switch 1 launch or Sony had with PS5 first years.

Considering Switch 1 massive success and they are probably preparing a good launch lineup with 3D Mario + third party stuff like COD or FIFA, they want to have as maximum stock as possible. They can easily aim to shipped +10 millions in FY2024/25 Q3 (october-december when Switch NG is likely to be released)

In addition, I also imagine Nintendo wants a constant flew of Switch NG exclusive titles from them and third party publishers to not have any software drought and motivate people to make the jump asap. Thats why they are already showing the HW +1 year before its launch so third party publishers can start preparing their software for initial Switch NG presentation (likely mid 2024)
 
LoneRanger said:
One thing is true (and was said by Emily IIRC) is that Nintendo probably wants to avoid any stock issues that they did have with Switch 1 launch or Sony had with PS5 first years.

Considering Switch 1 massive success and they are probably preparing a good launch lineup with 3D Mario + third party stuff like COD or FIFA, they want to have as maximum stock as possible. They can easily aim to shipped +10 millions in FY2024/25 Q3 (october-december when Switch NG is likely to be released)

In addition, I also imagine Nintendo wants a constant flew of Switch NG exclusive titles from them and third party publishers to not have any software drought and motivate people to make the jump asap. Thats why they are already showing the HW +1 year before its launch so third party publishers can start preparing their software for initial Switch NG presentation (likely mid 2024)
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You know the problem with "enough stock" is ... there won't be enough stock, no matter how long they would wait. (In a sensible timeframe, not "lets wait 2 years and produce as much during that time")

Assuming a global launch and assuming Nintendo didn't fumble again like they did from Wii to Wii U, the demand for this thing would be so high, that it will sell out no matter what.
And even if it's not purely by demand (never will be, realistically), then scalpers will do it.

They can (should and likely will) wait for a "reasonable" amount of units, but i don't think any suit there thinks they can avoid initial stock issues.
 
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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Thank you for this post. Production beginning late this year makes sense to me. Nintendo will want to have as many units available at launch, considering how difficult it was to snag a Switch at/shortly after launch. If people thought finding a Switch at launch was a pain…

Switch 2: “Hold my beer”
 
Z0m3le said:
So I'm going to be a bit vague here, but I'll update everyone with the current situation. Switch 2 is in the hands of every major developer interested. Sample production, testing and ramp up of full scale production is happening this year from what I've heard. MoneyDJ reported a while back that it would start in November/December of this year, and that lines up with multiple sources I've been hearing. We are still waiting on a funcle to really give us the details, but it seems like leaks by the end of this year are probably going to happen.

There is some rumblings of a direct happening in 2 or 3 weeks, this will likely happen before TGS. It should be the last focused Switch direct (my speculation).

At Gamescom Nintendo presented behind closed doors Switch 2 information to publishers/developers, they will do the same at TGS and possibly in Brazil in mid October. This presentation wasn't the most secure thing in the world... The reason I can share this? I don't know the sources here, I've heard from so many people on this that I trust, that I don't really need a source. I bring this up because I want to explain why I think there will be an announcement this year for a presentation about "Switch Redacted" next year. It could happen any time after October (I think they will release Mario Wonder first). I don't think Nintendo wants to announce it directly however, which is why I think they will use a venue like TGA, it's so core focused, that the only ones who are watching it that don't know a Switch successor is coming next year, are people who don't care about Nintendo, and exactly the type of market Nintendo would like to reach with such a powerful device.

I also think TGA uniquely has the right timing for this particular announcement, because production will start this year, leaks will happen shortly after, and because they are showing it off at multiple events before the end of this year, the likeliness that it leaks is too high. This is speculation, but expect the real stuff we are actually after, to be early next year.
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I backup this claim, specially the part where Brazil was cited as I pointed to Z0m3Ie privately
The production starting around December also aligns with my previous info
 
Bonejack said:
You know the problem with "enough stock" is ... there won't be enough stock, no matter how long they would wait. (In a sensible timeframe, not "lets wait 2 years and produce as much during that time")

Assuming a global launch and assuming Nintendo didn't fumble again like they did from Wii to Wii U, the demand for this thing would be so high, that it will sell out no matter what.
And even if it's not purely by demand (never will be, realistically), then scalpers will do it.
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Yes I know, but lets being honest, its not the same to launch a new HW with 3 millions than +10 millions.

Nintendo is in a good position that they can wait until late 2024 to launch their next HW in order to have a solid launch window lineup and prepare a reasonable amount of stock units.
 
It's 2024

Nintendo finally releases the Nintendo Switch Advance

They built up a considerable amount of stock to ensure that everyone gets one

System launches to critical acclaim, sells 20M units in the first month

But there are 2M units now sitting on shelves. Nintendo doomed?
 
necrolipe said:
I backup this claim, specially the part where Brazil was cited as I pointed to Z0m3Ie privately
The production starting around December also aligns with my previous info
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Not necessarily a question for you (eg more backward than forward looking), but do we remember when production started for switch 1? If it started around the same time, then even if they want more stock a release in H1 seems plausible.
 
LoneRanger said:
Yes I know, but lets being honest, its not the same to launch a new HW with 3 millions than +10 millions.

Nintendo is in a good position that they can wait until late 2024 to launch their next HW in order to have a solid launch window lineup and prepare a reasonable amount of stock units.
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Unless i get to know Nintendo's full 2024 Switch lineup, i'm not going to comment if they can wait until late 2024.

ILikeFeet said:
But there are 2M units now sitting on shelves. Nintendo doomed?
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You bet that there would be YT videos and dumb preview pic faces saying so.
 
when do companies start production like 9-10 months ahead of a release? I don’t recall this happening in video game hardware, but someone probably knows better than me.

This is just me thinking if we get a September-October release, then that’s really far out to start. I guess I get having a lot of units…

If you’re going to tell me production starts in December that would feel like the system is launching by May 2024 the latest. Anything can happen though so…we’ve heard Nintendo wanted to have enough units in a previous report.
 
Z0m3le said:
I actually think OLED models will EOL to produce Switch 2, they won't want to compete with themselves and the V2 model can be a budget price while keeping higher profits, while the Lite model needs to be replaced for a new entry level model to drive sales in the cross gen period... I'd expect a new entry level handheld Switch gen1 to exist sometime next year, probably months after Switch 2 releases, to drive sales of aging Switch hardware at the $199 price point, because Switch 2 will cost $399... Someone brought up the price in yen at 60000 or whatever, but if the OLED model doesn't have a problem selling, then Switch 2 shouldn't either.
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I expect the opposite, with V2 going EOL and OLED dropping in price.

OLED Model, internally, is massively cost reduced and simplified over V2, and may share components (such as the dock or hinges) with NG Switch. The V2 also uses an older Dock with hardware no longer available. A cost reduced revision of the V2 is rather aimless when OLED Model is basically that with a nice screen. I COULD see an EOL "revision" with V2 hardware and OLED Dock, just one colour option, super simple. But I personally think that the V2 is the console that will be squeezed out of the market. The OLED proposes the "medium", the thing people could consider and see the NG Switch and think "why not spend the extra".
 
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