StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[gsr]

Wouldn’t 3-4 months be a bit too close for comfort regarding marketing?

I don't think so. Although the Switch had a 4 - 5 month gap from reveal to launch, the real marketing started after the Switch showcase in January and pre-orders started after the showcase, so in practice it had 2 months of pre-launch marketing. That didn't hamper the Switch and I don't think a short turnaround would hamper the next system.

3 - 4 months would give Nintendo enough time for them to market their launch titles for the next system, roughly the same amount of time we're seeing for most of their new titles this year, including Super Mario Bros. Wonder.

The thing about marketing is, Nintendo is one of the few companies in the world that can cut through the noise because of their brand prestige and IP. So they don't need a huge runway to announce and launch a product as compared to smaller companies. That's why the time from reveal to launch for most first party games has become smaller this generation.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I don't think so. Although the Switch had a 4 - 5 month gap from reveal to launch, the real marketing started after the Switch showcase in January and pre-orders started after the showcase, so in practice it had 2 months of pre-launch marketing. That didn't hamper the Switch and I don't think a short turnaround would hamper the next system.

3 - 4 months would give Nintendo enough time for them to market their launch titles for the next system, roughly the same amount of time we're seeing for most of their new titles this year, including Super Mario Bros. Wonder.

The thing about marketing is, Nintendo is one of the few companies in the world that can cut through the noise because of their brand prestige and IP. So they don't need a huge runway to announce and launch a product as compared to smaller companies. That's why the time from reveal to launch for most first party games has become smaller this generation.

A big issue here is that the Switch launched with 0 third-party games of note and this will absolutely not be true of the Switch 2.

Mapping the Switch 2's potential launch to the Switch 1's launch is just a bad idea.

(And if this was launching in March with like Assassin's Creed Valhalla, we 100% would have heard about it already)

BotW was promoted for several years whereas a new 3D Mario game for the Switch 2 launch getting 3 months would be... weird.

 

[Hermii]

I mean, maybe that was the idea, but the Lite's sales were pretty bad relative to the other models so they would need to change the idea if they did a Lite again.

I would say, just improve the ergonomics. Take advantage of the fact that you're a pure handheld.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I mean, maybe that was the idea, but the Lite's sales were pretty bad relative to the other models so they would need to change the idea if they did a Lite again.

Has Nintendo directly stated that the Lite sold unsatisfactorily? They’ve still selling it. Just because it didn’t perform like the others doesnt mean it was bad

 

[Hermii]

Has Nintendo directly stated that the Lite sold unsatisfactorily? They’ve still selling it. Just because it didn’t perform like the others doesnt mean it was bad

Do we have numbers of how many lites has been sold?

 

[Threeman]

Back on the actual topic of hardware speculation: The current expectation is that the next Switch will come with LCD screens in order to save costs, and so we're most likely to see an OLED model later down the line. Do you all expect for the Switch 2 hardware line to basically be a repeat of the original Switch in which we have multiple form factors but functionality identical performance characteristics:

1. Base model
2. Lite model
3. OLED model

I'm not sure if Nintendo plans to do an actual mid-generation update, and I can't think of a particularly strong incentive to do so given how successful the original Switch hardware lineup worked out.

I think it will heavey depends on furniture opportunities. For instance, it has been rumoured that the OLED model kinda came out to be because there were a price drop in OLED with flat edges, while everyone in the high end smartphone areas wants curved ou borderless.

The great strength of the Switch is that the proposition could go multiple ways and still feel great. They could stretch the Switch and make a Tablet sized screen for Tabletop experience, they could go salon only console, they could go Dongle way...

I think a lot of it will depend on what they feel like offering with the system, and maybe how partners wants to be on board, paired with industrial opportunities and market propects.

 

[Deleted member 1978]

I could be wrong, but i think the sales of the Lite always lagged behind compared to regular Switch and even moreso OLED.
They may not feel bothered enough for a portable only version this time.

Though if ReDraketed is indeed bigger in dimensions and weight than the current Switch models and they manage to shrink it down to near "Lite"-size, there might be more consumer interest this time?

The Lite was pretty unpopular and I'm not sure where size savings are supposed to come from for a Switch 2.

Has Nintendo actually made any commentary regarding the viability of the original Lite model? The Lite should be cheaper to produce since it's being sold at a lower price, so the actual popularity of the product might not need to match the base model in order to be considered successful.

Yeah I actually do expect a similar sequence of form factors here, except I think a mid-generation update is possible in place of an OLED model (which may or may not have OLED). If the size of the system is around what has been speculated here, then I wouldn't be surprised if the Lite model comes out sooner rather than later in the system's life (even by 2025, like how the 3DS XL launched after a year or so from the original 3DS).

I'm of the opinion that Nvidia's primary advancements in their recent GPU lineup are in the software rather than any significant improvements in the actual hardware, so I'm not sure what they would produce for a mid-generation update to T239. What would a proper mid-generation update to the Switch 2 constitute?

 

[Νεφέλωμα]

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

Wasn't there a rumor that Far Cry 7 was gonna release on Switch 2?

 

[ziggyrivers]

Wasn't there a rumor that Far Cry 7 was gonna release on Switch 2?

I believe Necrolipe mentioned that

 

[Suswave]

I would say, just improve the ergonomics. Take advantage of the fact that you're a pure handheld.

I got a Lite specifically because it’s the perfect size for me to hold, even moreso than my main Switch

 

[rêverie]

Back on the actual topic of hardware speculation: The current expectation is that the next Switch will come with LCD screens in order to save costs, and so we're most likely to see an OLED model later down the line. Do you all expect for the Switch 2 hardware line to basically be a repeat of the original Switch in which we have multiple form factors but functionality identical performance characteristics:

1. Base model
2. Lite model
3. OLED model

I'm not sure if Nintendo plans to do an actual mid-generation update, and I can't think of a particularly strong incentive to do so given how successful the original Switch hardware lineup worked out.

i think they will (or... should) make the lite model into an actual lite model this time around instead of just a cheaper, handheld-only model. given the specs found and the possibility of the base model being larger than the OG switch, i think a lite model in the sense of the OG DS to the DS lite is a logical conclusion. they could even make it lite + OLED and then the third model could be the budget, handheld only model.

how will this possibly work, you ask? idk, i don't make the rules.

 

[Mobius]

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

I mean those studios must have a devkit anyway even if the console is releasing late 2024, it would be though to port/develop a game in less than a year.

 

[Νεφέλωμα]

What would a proper mid-generation update to the Switch 2 constitute?

Could be just a better screen and more storage. But I'm thinking of a mid gen refresh like the PS4 had.

 

[CalmMind]

Wouldn’t 3-4 months be a bit too close for comfort regarding marketing?

The first Switch had it. And it didn't hurt it's chances.

 

[Hermii]

I got a Lite specifically because it’s the perfect size for me to hold, even moreso than my main Switch

You got to admit the d pad is tiny, and not good. There's definitely room for improvement in the ergonomic department imo.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Since the Lite is smaller than the Switch, I wonder if a Lite 2 will be the same size as a Lite, or the same size as a Switch or OLED

 

[Hosermess]

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

where were the Skyrim rumours in 2016?

 

[robertman2]

where were the Skyrim rumours in 2016?

Or the NBA 2K ones, since that was in the trailer lol

 

[Bonejack]

I think the advantages Lite had were the reduced size and less moving parts due to not having removable Joy-Cons.

Being able to get connected to a TV, either via Switch dock or via a cable or something would've made the Lite way more appealling. Imo.

 

[ziggyrivers]

where were the Skyrim rumours in 2016?

I believe that was a curveball, so

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

The belief that people have that corporations would freely violate NDAs is pretty weird

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

where were the Skyrim rumours in 2016?

Those companies didn't need to keep their mouths shut about the release date as Nintendo had already announced the release date?

Before the October 2016 video, the Switch's concept had been leaked and its release date already announced.

It's most likely that one of those companies did not keep their mouth shut which is why the system was leaked, lol.

If the Switch 2 is launching in March, then dozens to hundreds of Ubisoft employees probably know this at this point (after all, they need to get ready to promote a Switch 2 launch game most likely) and I would... not expect them to keep a secret about it, lol.

 

[Neoxon]

The first Switch had it. And it didn't hurt it's chances.

Switch 1 had 5 months between October & March.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I believe that was a curveball, so


The belief that people have that corporations would freely violate NDAs is pretty weird

"Ubisoft employees violating NDAs" makes up 99% of Insider-Gaming.com

 

[robertman2]

Switch 1 had 5 months between October & March.

There was nothing in November or December, outside of some more Zelda gameplay at the TGAs, and Miyamoto on Jimmy Fallon (mostly for Mario Run)

 

[Goodtwin]

BotW was promoted for several years whereas a new 3D Mario game for the Switch 2 launch getting 3 months would be... weird.

BotW was supposed to release much earlier than March 2017 when it was first revealed. Wii U was struggling so it was important for Nintendo to showcase a high profile game to try and help salvage the Wii U situation. A 3D Mario game could be announced alongside the new hardware and would sell at a near one to one ratio during its launch month. Mario will also be an evergreen title, so regardless if it is announced a year prior to release or a month prior to release, it will go on to sell 20+ million units over its lifetime.

 

[Joy-Boy]

where were the Skyrim rumours in 2016?

Skyrim itself only happened after Todd had a demo of the Swith in either E3 or Gamescom (I forget which) and was so impressed they got the ball rolling on the Skyrim port right away. So Skyrim on Switch didnt even exist until the system was already being shown off

He said it was the most impressive demo he ever saw.

 

[TonyBaduy]

So nothing happened, as expected. Maybe we should all be more grounded and hope something happens with their financial report next week and if not, then next year.

 

[lemonfresh]

The belief people have that Ubisoft, Sega, WB, 2K, etc would all be able to keep their mouths shut about the Switch 2 launching in March is pretty weird.

to be fair they are probably scared of nintendo ninjas

 

[lattjeful]

Since the Lite is smaller than the Switch, I wonder if a Lite 2 will be the same size as a Lite, or the same size as a Switch or OLED

Due to the size of T239, I'd imagine closer to OLED size. They can probably go a bit easier on the cooling - especially if they do a die shrink - since it won't need to run docked, but when T239 is going to be as big as it is, the space savings/size decrease from dumbing down the cooling would be a lot smaller.

I'd also imagine it'd either be hard to find or expensive to use a 16:9 1080p LCD that's around the 5.5" (+half an inch for a bigger Lite, give or take) of the Lite. I've been checked out of the smartphone game for a while, admittedly, but as far as I know there aren't smartphones out there that have a display that's a combination of that size, aspect ratio, resolution, and type.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

While I'm very much ruling out a March release, I do think a Q2 release is possible, but if it's Q2, I would say it would 100% not launch with a new 3D Mario.

2D Mario and 3D Mario are different yeah, but it would be a little weird and overwhelming to release two major Mario platformers within 6 months of each other. Especially when there's so many Mario spinoffs coming out around this time as well.

I think 3D Mario is definitely September 2024 at the earliest, I don't think Nintendo wants to risk a NSMB2/NSMBU situation. If it's a Q2 launch, I'm not sure what I would expect at launch from Nintendo tbh.

I'm at

March 2024: 1%
April to June 2024: 10%
July to August 2024: 0% (why would they launch the systems in these months?)
September to November 2024: 80%
After 2024: 9%

 

[Hermii]

Could be just a better screen and more storage. But I'm thinking of a mid gen refresh like the PS4 had.

I believe Drake will age far better than the OG Switch (assuming good clocks at 5 nm). The OG launched at a bad node with sub par clocks. Drake will launch at a great node, with features far beyond the competition, and Nvidia will continue to improve those features over the systems lifetime.

What I'm saying is if any system needed a pro it was the OG Switch and it didn't get it.

 

[robertman2]

Also Ubisoft did leak the fact they're making an upgrade patch for Mario Rabbids 2 lol

 

[chocolate_supra]

Or creating a separate, third thread with no restrictions whatsoever, which is what this thread currently looks like.

Are you suggesting we create like a Nintendo general discussion thread or something?

 

[Concernt]

Also Ubisoft did leak the fact they're making an upgrade patch for Mario Rabbids 2 lol

Whoa whoa whoa, I think I forgot or missed this. When or where was this again?

 

[Suswave]

You got to admit the d pad is tiny, and not good. There's definitely room for improvement in the ergonomic department imo.

I don’t have to admit shit if it’s not true for me, the thing is perfect for my hands, don’t know what to tell you

don’t get me wrong I’m sure they could improve for most people but like

per usual it’ll suck for people with small hands and also literal children

 

[Deleted member 645]

What happened to garner all this excitement?

 

[Foltzie]

Whoa whoa whoa, I think I forgot or missed this. When or where was this again?

"Although, I think it was a different issue with Mario. We had already released a Mario Rabbids game [on Switch], so by doing another we had two similar experiences on one machine. On Nintendo, games like this never die. There are 25 Mario games on Switch. Nintendo [has advised] that it's better to do one iteration on each machine. We were a bit too early, we should have waited for [the next console]."

"Because you could play a great game. And we think it will last for ten years, because we will update it for the new machine that will come in the future."

Star Wars, mobile and free-to-play: Ubisoft's bid to transform its business

In my view, one of the best games of last year was by Ubisoft. Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope is a wonderful strategy …

www.gamesindustry.biz

 

[SoldierDelta]

Whoa whoa whoa, I think I forgot or missed this. When or where was this again?

This is a bit misleading:

Mario + Rabbids Sparks Of Hope "Should Have Waited" For Switch Successor, Says Ubisoft CEO

"We will update it for the new machine"

www.nintendolife.com

The article says "Waited for the console successor" not "next-gen upgrade".

 

[darthdiablo]

My uncle told me we will have info during the investor call

Huh weird, my uncle said the same thing!

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wouldn’t 3-4 months be a bit too close for comfort regarding marketing?

Switch was only 4.5 months between announcement and release, and they spent more than half of that time saying nothing but "WAIT FOR MORE INFO". If they had 3 months between announce and release and actually used them, it would be much fuller than Switch had.

The Lite was pretty unpopular and I'm not sure where size savings are supposed to come from for a Switch 2.

Regardless of other differences: smaller screen, fewer batteries, fewer wireless antennas, fewer rails, cutting things like rumble would mean less volume.

A big issue here is that the Switch launched with 0 third-party games of note and this will absolutely not be true of the Switch 2.

Great! All these independent companies can worry about the timing themselves, as they do for releases the rest of the time.

Do we have numbers of how many lites has been sold?

It's way less than the others, but not "OH GOD, SHUT THE MACHINES OFF" level.

 

[robertman2]

This is a bit misleading:

Mario + Rabbids Sparks Of Hope "Should Have Waited" For Switch Successor, Says Ubisoft CEO

"We will update it for the new machine"

www.nintendolife.com

The article says "Waited for the console successor" not "next-gen upgrade".

"Because you could play a great game. And we think it will last for ten years, because we will update it for the new machine that will come in the future."

 

[Tangerine_Cookie]

Staff Communication

Hey folks,

We were hoping discussion of non hardware topics would naturally move to the new Switch 2 ST, but a reminder that off topic chat in this thread is not allowed. We will moderate accordingly from this post onward.

But also, a reminder that we don't see every post made, especially in a thread with a high level of activity as this one. As stated in the mod feedback thread, we need reports to act on. If from this post on, you see any posts that you feel should not be in this thread, please report them so we can act on them.

-Tangerine Cookie, Dardan Sandiego, MissingNo., Party Skylar, Big Lantern Ghost, Dragoncaine

 

[Suswave]

What happened to garner all this excitement?

a mourning dove farts on the wind

 

[SoldierDelta]

@robertman2 Appreciate the added quote, but that could literally just be a remaster later on, not a hard confirmation of Backwards Compatibility.

This is the annoying part of discussing BC btw, because "upgrades" could mean a port, remaster, remake or just a next-gen patch.

 

[NintenDuvo]

What happened to garner all this excitement?

a big tank of hopium leaked all over this thread

 

[TonyBaduy]

I still think it'll be announced early next year.

 

[Triistan]

#itshappening

 

[Mirev]

Ok Pyoro timing is sus

 

[Mobius]

Or this is just an icon from the new Wario Ware game.