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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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OP
OP
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I mean, you're not doing anything wrong, you're playing the game! It's not like there are settings to tweak. If you're seeing worse performance than folks in YT videos are getting, then I would make sure you've got the day 1 patch (assuming you're physical).
The renderer doesn't like transparency, and struggles with post processing effects, so I see frame dips in rain, when turning on Ultrahand, but most commonly when climbing trees - the giant transparency of the foliage covers the whole screen and frame rate chugs. If you get on a sky island, you're not in a tree, and you don't have ultrahand on, and you're seeing 20fps, then that sounds like you're missing the patch.
I suspect we've already seen the impact in Nintendo's much higher R&D investments over the last few years. Nintendo is definitely financing the design of the chip, unlike last time. Big upfront costs when a company has a lot of liquid cash are easy to amortize. In other words, Nintendo can afford to make the R&D investment back over the lifetime of REDACTED, spread over both hardware and video games sold. That has only a tiny impact on the price of products.
The per-unit cost of T239 is probably in the same ballpark as TX1. There is some evidence that's true, just by comparing Orin prices and TX1 prices, but also, Nintendo has a price target and they co-designed the chip to meet their needs. Nintendo's consoles have been pretty consistent in price when you adjust for inflation, so it seems extremely likely that is the ballpark they're aiming for, and any extra money spent in one area is going to be made up elsewhere.
Prepare for more $70 titles though...
John Omaha
Moblin
How likely is it for Nintendo to use Nvidia Reflex on Drake to reduce the system's input latency? The Switch is a pretty laggy system, which is pretty disappointing considering the high amount of old-school, skill-based games on the platform.
OP
OP
~This is speculation territory. So proceed with caution.~Macronix plans to release 96-layer 3D Nand Flash for the game console manufacturer this year.
旺宏3D Nand 96層產品今年可放量 主供遊戲機業-MoneyDJ理財網
旺宏(2337)今年雖面臨大環境消費景氣差，持續減產，但在研發進度以及研發費用上，公司則未縮手，公司目前新產品的開發如進度進行，3D Nand flash 96層產品已陸續給客戶sample，主攻遊戲機產業，等對方驗證後，...www.moneydj.com
Assuming Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND is comparable to Intel SSD 665p, then Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND could be capable of up to 2 GB/s of sequential read speeds, which is comparable to UFS 3.0/3.1.
There's also a rumour from a couple of years ago that Nintendo's sampling Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND. And assuming Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND is comparable to Samsung's PM953, then Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND could be capable of up to 1 GB/s of sequential read speeds, which is comparable to UFS 2.1/2.2.
Foltzie
Uncle
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- he/him
Also fair, though if TX1+ is any indication, short of a hardware mod, T239 should be fairly secure.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I know the carts being capable of UFS 3.1 speeds does not mean Nintendo will have them run at that speed, but if this turns out to be for Redacted Carts there is no way they stick to EMMC and microsd for internal and external media.
I know the density improvements from moving to 96 layer NAND will make larger carts less expensive in the long term, and this is probably a good part of the reason why, but Nintendo are wizards at fitting their software into tiny filesizes anyway so I can't see it being the only motivation.
Nintendo are one of the few if not the only remaining customer who needs this kind of cutting edge NAND tech so you can bet they subsidised the r and d to make it happen.
UFS 3.0 is super common, so internal storage isn't an issue, but now im wondering if we will start to hear some rumblings of a partnership for UFS Card 3, or maybe a rumbling of those cards suddenly going into production?
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Good catch, @ReddDreadtheLead!
It's a single data point, but here is a representative comparison with a Zen 2 CPU.
https://browser.geekbench.com/v6/cpu/compare/1322044?baseline=1292153
We see that Zen 2 over performs per clock, relative to the A78s, and underperforms per thread. That's roughly what we've seen elsewhere, but both differences seem to be exaggerated. While it's a little more pessimistic than earlier, it's not way out of line. I expect multithreaded performance to improve even more on REDACTED, because of the single cluster.
For shits and giggles, here is against a Jaguar CPU, like the ones in the last gen consoles. This tends to confirm my biases - when it comes to 3rd party current-gen games, single core performance is going to be the big bottleneck on REDACTED, but when it comes to exclusives and miracle ports, you can't just look at the GPU numbers and say "oh, it's just last gen."
Starbreaker
Seven ways to win
I'm starting to think we'll be pleasantly surprised by the new hardware, in quite a few ways. It's got me convinced that this isn't just gonna be a more powerful or more advanced switch but a brand newish idea that they don't want their competitors to ape so the ninjas got shit on lockdown. Physical media will still be present but there be an all digital version methinks too with increased storage. The OS will remain relatively simple. Old controllers will only work for older games that are BC. They'll want to sell new accessories so new Joycons and such.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
That's a tricky question, because Reflex is a tricky technology. I'm not 100% sure that what Reflex does would make sense in any context other than DirectX 12. Nvidia is responsible for the low-level graphics API on Switch, so if it makes sense, I feel pretty good that it will be there. Whether or not games take advantage of that technology is a different question.
my bet is zero. stuff like Reflex is a bandaid for the fact that the game is running on a pc and can't be developed for fixed hardware
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Mm, I wouldn’t be so sure with the Single core. I remember that Alex from DF in the Gotham Knights video said that the CPU closest to the current gen consoles is the Ryzen 3600 running at 4GHz. It’s 6 cores with 12 threads that run higher, but the PS5 used only has 6.5 cores available and clocked several hundred megahertz lower. He said the Ryzen 3600 is the closest they can do to get to the PS5 “real world” performance. I didn’t use a different CPU for good reason besides the one they mentioned for comparison at DF!
Actually I’ll find the video in which he compared it and the time stamp.
@ 1:44
The biggest difference is really the really small L3 cache that the PS5 and Series consoles have relative to their PC counterpart, lower core count and higher frequency. But the L3 is really a big one.
Only using the 3600 I found on GB6 I’d get that in the single core, it is 370.9 per GHz, while the ORIN example mentioned above is 436.36 per GHz (it is clocked to 1.98GHz).
My takeaway from it is that, Nvidia has a good implementation of the ARM cores and Nintendo will have that comfortable system upgrade and have a solid enough Single Core still, but wil clearly be outclassed in the MT department for clear reasons if the software is made to use it to the best way possible.
And we know games don’t always see a lot of an increase from SMT, so it’ll be dependent on the title.
I’d say, Drake can be 60% of the performance unlike, what, 20-30% that switch was vs the PS4/X1? Makes ports easier though people shouldn’t expect everything, more or less the same.
KeijiKG
Moblin
Some people may think "we can enjoy Mariko for years to come"
I think "They're building a great foundation to get a lot of mileage on the next chipset"
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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As likely as the next iPhone is to be an Apple Pipin, I'd say.
Mm, I wouldn’t be so sure with the Single core. I remember that Alex from DF in the Gotham Knights video said that the CPU closest to the current gen consoles is the Ryzen 3600 running at 4GHz. It’s 6 cores with 12 threads that run higher, but the PS5 used only has 6.5 cores available and clocked several hundred megahertz lower. He said the Ryzen 3600 is the closest they can do to get to the PS5 “real world” performance. I didn’t use a different CPU for good reason besides the one they mentioned for comparison at DF!
Actually I’ll find the video in which he compared it and the time stamp.
@ 1:44
The biggest difference is really the really small L3 cache that the PS5 and Series consoles have relative to their PC counterpart, lower core count and higher frequency. But the L3 is really a big one.
Only using the 3600 I found on GB6 I’d get that in the single core, it is 370.9 per GHz, while the ORIN example mentioned above is 436.36 per GHz (it is clocked to 1.98GHz).
My takeaway from it is that, Nvidia has a good implementation of the ARM cores and Nintendo will have that comfortable system upgrade and have a solid enough Single Core still, but wil clearly be outclassed in the MT department for clear reasons if the software is made to use it to the best way possible.
And we know games don’t always see a lot of an increase from SMT, so it’ll be dependent on the title.
I’d say, Drake can be 60% of the performance unlike, what, 20-30% that switch was vs the PS4/X1? Makes ports easier though people shouldn’t expect everything, more or less the same.
I like to think that the series/ps5 cpu equivalent is the ryzen 7 4700g.
Ryzen 7 4700g
8cores/16 threads
zen 2
3.6-4.4ghz
512kb L1 Cache
4mb L2 Cache
8mb L3 cache
how would that change performance numbers based off what you calculated?
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Okay, yeah, that's closer to the Geekbench 5 numbers I was looking at too. Neat!Mm, I wouldn’t be so sure with the Single core. I remember that Alex from DF in the Gotham Knights video said that the CPU closest to the current gen consoles is the Ryzen 3600 running at 4GHz. It’s 6 cores with 12 threads that run higher, but the PS5 used only has 6.5 cores available and clocked several hundred megahertz lower. He said the Ryzen 3600 is the closest they can do to get to the PS5 “real world” performance. I didn’t use a different CPU for good reason besides the one they mentioned for comparison at DF!
OP
OP
I don't think 96-layer 3D NAND is really considered cutting edge technology, considering Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix already released 176-layer 3D NAND, and YMTC already released 232-layer 3D NAND.
But that being said, one aspect that sets Macronix apart from Samsung, SK hynix, and YMTC is that Macronix focuses on longetivity and durability for Macronix's memory chips, which I imagine is the reason Nintendo has worked with Macronix since the release of the SNES. And Macronix's XtraROM used for the Nintendo Switch Game Cards have a life cycle of 20 years at 85°C.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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The issue is that those use all cores, consoles don’t dedicate all cores for games. Part of those cores are taken up by the OS. It’s why he used 6 physical cores to compare rather than 8 and attempt to deduct from it to a range.
how many layers are current switch cartridges?
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John Omaha
Moblin
Dumb question, but are we sure (assuming this is even Switch 2-related) this would this be for the game cartridges and not the internal storage?
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D
Deleted member 887
Guest
You must be new here
etuev
Piranha Plant
Someone should archive this thread and review it when the successor does come out. We will meticulously analyze which person in the thread was closest to what actually happens with the successor. Winner gets a free trip to Nintendo Land (I'm serious).You must be new here
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
$14 for a 32GB Switch cart is actually brutal. Have to think Nintendo is trying to figure out how to avoid these costs next gen as 32GB and 64GB games become more and more common.
etuev
Piranha Plant
Digital only baybeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I think it has to be under some consideration right now for bigger games that won't fit on a 16 GB cart.
Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
we dont know if Nintendo is gonna charge $70 for they games next gen, Tears of the Kingdom was charged $70 because of the game massive size, the game needed a 32GB cartdridge
I missed this, but what's your source on 14$?
etuev
Piranha Plant
I think they may do a fully digital SKU at some point, maybe after launch. Could save on space (although not really much) also. A nice bonus for them is that they'll get more control over pricing too, probably more cut of the profit too. Not great for us as consumers but oh well I suppose.
Modern NAND chips are typically laid out in 3 dimensions, with a bunch of layers of cells stacked on top of one another.
Historically, I don't think Macronix has been Nintendo's supplier of the internal storage, but I believe they do sell normal flash, too.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I would assume most large games will blow through 16 GBs once Nintendo starts including higher quality assets in their games.
Nate in this very thread.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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It's the price for the current 32GB card, and it's from @NateDrake in a different thread entirely.
Goodtwin
Like Like
Ultra Hand can tank the framerate, but not always. It hardly ever effects the framerate when in shrines for example. While in tree's, it tanks the framerate nearly ever time. I have my launch day Switch fail broken so I can overclock it, and a GPU overclock does make dips far less frequent. I do not have the software required to do a memory overclock, but according to MVG's video that will basically completely remove all the framerate drops. Pretty amazing that a 15% boost in memory bandwidth clears up TotK's performance woes. It really does show that Zelda TotK is pushing Switch right up to its limits, but it certainly was never targeting more powerful hardware. With Switch being able to render TotK at 900p docked, there is little reason to believe Drake would struggle to take it up to 4K even without DLSS. FSR 1.0 actually isnt too bad with making a 1440p image look close to 4K, so worst case scenario they render at 1440p on Drake and use FSR to scale up to 4K. This assumes injecting DLSS into the renderer is difficult. If its not, I would think they will just use DLSS to get a proper full fat 4K image. There are already people patching TotK with modded Switch units to bump to 60fps, so its hard to see why Nintendo wouldn't be able to implement that with Drake.
That's a lot more than I would have guessed.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
The price also differs for third-party partners -- it's higher. The pricing is slightly old (from late last yr) and could be a dollar or two less now; but that gives a good idea of cost.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Somewhat late to the party, but the 4060 prices are reasonable.
Orin launched 20 months after the 3090. Drake launching in a similar window after Lovelace, with GPU prices seeming to be falling back within historical norms - obviously the node decision was made a while back, but I can't see a reason for 5nm-class to be a problem.
Orin launched 20 months after the 3090. Drake launching in a similar window after Lovelace, with GPU prices seeming to be falling back within historical norms - obviously the node decision was made a while back, but I can't see a reason for 5nm-class to be a problem.
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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I'm surprised by that. Nintendo, as platform holder, should just take the extra costs themselves or reduce their physical share and sell for a lesser or equal price for 3rd-party partners. That would incentivize ports of games which wouldn't release on such due to storage concerns.
prices are reasonable, but you're not getting a major improvement over last gen. the 4060Ti is pretty meager compared to my 3060Ti. it would have been more worth if it had 10GB or 12GB or something
and I don't think Frame Gen will be that great here given you're less likely to be cpu limited down here
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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4060 is only cheap due to the blowback 8GB is receiving from PC Community as a whole and the fact it now uses xx107 die, which is the smallest die Nvidia produces every generation and usually is used by the xx50 GPUs. But yes, it does point towards the fact that, while leading edge nodes are expensive and they're getting more expensive, a lot of the higher prices in eletronics are due to the desire of reaching higher profit margins.
Armoured_Bear
Like Like
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- he
99% will have overestimated REDACTED Power.
Just like with Switch and Wii U and Wii.
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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?????. I concede on the Wii U, which was much weaker than anticipated. But Wii and Switch??? Nope. I'd argue both systems outperformed their performance expectations before launch. A lot of us are guessing with NGH, some guesses might be off, others be right. We're in uncharted territory.
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D36
#WOHOYHASAWAKENED
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I disagree; I'd say it's reasonable to expect that Redrakted will be a huge leap in power compared to the Switch. Most of us here expect it to be somewhere between PS4/PS4 Pro and the Xbox Series S.
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People found it hard to believe Wii would be so little change from GameCube (less than two duct taped together), and early bullshots like Red Steel's didn't help. Switch, there was a lot of assumption that Nintendo would be getting some customized version of TX1 better for their needs, until... it wasn't.
But I think the situation now is pretty different. We didn't have anything like the NVIDIA leak dropping specific info about the hardware back then.
Instro
Like Like
Ehh I don't know how anyone would have gotten the Wii correct. Most were completely blindsided by what happened, particularly considering early dev of the the GC successor and related rumors were for a more powerful device. As far as the Switch, it's final clocks definitely came in lower that what many were hoping/guessing. And you definitely had a contingent of people hoping for/expecting the X2/16nm
That was all under different management though, so there's probably less of a chance of being way off base and Nintendo just reusing the X1 or something lol.
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Regardless of which bottleneck you're hitting first, more frames is more frames.
Dekuman
Kremling
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Nintendo… unless I missed something
So, a 128GB cart? Jesus Christ. Must cost a fortune if ever actually used.
Edit: Wait, no. Does this mean the 32GB cards are at the price similar to the 16GB carts?
Here's the machine translation. Doesn't say anything about capacity, but i assume more layers = more capacity.
If we can find out how many layers the current Flash ROMs are, you can probably guesstimate capacity, but 32GB being cheaper seems to be a good guess.
Edit: according to this, they had a 48 layer tech go into mass production in 2021. 96 layers is 2X 48, so it is possible we're looking at doubling of capacities at the same price.
Macronix 3D NAND Flash product development by the end of 2023 - TechGoing
(Macronix) is a manufacturer of integrated non-volatile memory solutions, headquartered in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan, China, with a leading position in ROM, NOR Flash and NAND Flash. Macronix currently owns a 12″ wafer fab and an 8″ wafer fab; the 6″ wafer fab was sold to Hon Hai in August...
www.techgoing.com
Further, an earlier report had their 96 layer tech slated initially for 2020. This likely was the long delayed Switch 64GB cartridges
Macronix: we can build 3D NAND cheaper than all the rest – Blocks and Files
Macronix, a Taiwanese semiconductor firm, is to build 48- and 96-layer 3D NAND – and it thinks it can cut industry prices by up to a third. Macronix is a small player in the NAND market and also makes NOR flash and ROM products. It will start production of 96-layer 3D NAND at the end […]
blocksandfiles.com
Also and Anand tech article talking about them starting with 48 layer 3D NAND flash in 2020. I'm assuming the previous 32GB carts were on 48 layers or even older tech. I wonder if the new TOTK 32GB carts are on the 96 layers tech. It would align with Macronix noting it has gone into mass production. I would assume it would take the release of the 192 layer tech to get the 32GB carts to be as cheap as the current 16GB configurations.
Macronix to Start Shipments of 3D NAND in 2020
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TLZ
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Starbreaker
Seven ways to win
If we're talking actual hardware performance level in which I'm not that well versed in the nitty gritty to give anybody detailed specifics for example the chip, clocks, ram ect. In my own dumb blonde speak I'm going to guess it will be lower than Series S higher than PS4 maybe closer to the PS4 Pro with DLSS upscaling.
Basically powerful enough to get an ass load of capcom ports
Basically powerful enough to get an ass load of capcom ports
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Lancelot
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I haven't said much in this thread in a while (because of the lack of news mostly), but the last time the gap was discussed Drake was going to find itself too bandwidth limited to realistically match the Series S in gaming scenarios, but thanks to Ampere features and much better RT (as well as the same R&D that somehow got TOTK into the Switch), Drake will actually look and feel like a current gen console in practice. Although the jump between PS4 and PS5 was massive and this console will pay the price for being a handheld going against them, Drake technically already has two of the main gimmicks this generation. Solid state and ridiculously more powerful CPUs. Add it up true raytracing and this thing will kick ass for sure, you can see why it shouldn't be measured with last gen as the baseline for those reasons, especially when DLSS is also a true factor here.
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