StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[D36]

If we're talking actual hardware performance level in which I'm not that well versed in the nitty gritty to give anybody detailed specifics for example the chip, clocks, ram ect. In my own dumb blonde speak I'm going to guess it will be lower than Series S higher than PS4 maybe closer to the PS4 Pro with DLSS upscaling.

Edit: Ah, you edited that part out.... Ah well

 

[Lancelot]

With that in mind, it's up to Nintendo to push this device hard enough to give us comparable games to what we already saw last gen graphically. Likely even better, because of not having to deal with the trash Jaguar CPUs and aged GCN architecture, as well as a bit more RAM if the 12 GB expectations materialize.

 

[Starbreaker]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


Edit: Ah, you edited that part out.... Ah well

I fixed it hahaha.

But yeah should be enough for Japanese 3rd party to port their PS4 games and a number of PS5 games.

I expect western support to be filled with indies, AA, and whoever supports current switch hardware. Basically no change there.

 

[Deleted member 887]

prices are reasonable, but you're not getting a major improvement over last gen. the 4060Ti is pretty meager compared to my 3060Ti. it would have been more worth if it had 10GB or 12GB or something

Yeah, only thinking in terms of cost of wafers.

4060 is only cheap due to the blowback 8GB is receiving from PC Community as a whole and the fact it now uses xx107 die, which is the smallest die Nvidia produces every generation and usually is used by the xx50 GPUs. But yes, it does point towards the fact that, while leading edge nodes are expensive and they're getting more expensive, a lot of the higher prices in eletronics are due to the desire of reaching higher profit margins.

I'm not sure the margins actually are higher. We went through a pretty serious boom/bust cycle on GPUs at the same time that the next node was perhaps the roughest jump ever - GPUs are usually the bleeding edge of shaking bugs out of new nodes and both AMD and Nvidia pushed back pretty hard on foundries this gen.

 

[Dakhil]

I wonder if the new TOTK 32GB carts are on the 96 layers tech. It would align with Macronix noting it has gone into mass production

My guess is probably not since Macronix mentioned starting mass production of Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND this year (here and here).

 

[Concernt]

If we're talking actual hardware performance level in which I'm not that well versed in the nitty gritty to give anybody detailed specifics for example the chip, clocks, ram ect. In my own dumb blonde speak I'm going to guess it will be lower than Series S higher than PS4 maybe closer to the PS4 Pro with DLSS upscaling.

Basically powerful enough to get an ass load of capcom ports

Think more PS4 Pro BEFORE DLSS in raw grunt.

A better point of comparison would probably be Series S. Under Series S in raw grunt, but with higher output resolutions, and the power delta (in TV mode) would probably be bridged by lower internal resolutions. Where S does raw 1440p, Switch 2 does 1080p->4K with DLSS, etc. Some games that really push it might sacrifice DLSS and target 1080p with other, more lightweight upscaling techniques.

Handheld and Tabletop mode are likely going to land in the "half a Series S" category, but with a target output/screen resolution of 1080p and most games using DLSS and only needing to render 360-720p depending on the mode, including the possibility of dynamic resolution, it's not going to be a problem.

Porting from Xbox Series S, or even PS5, to Nintendo Switch 2, is likely going to be far, far quicker and easier than PS4 to Nintendo Switch.

The bottlenecks it has could present speedbumps, like the likely much slower storage speed and lower single core performance. This could cause things like physics lag, asset streaming problems, or loading time increases. However, we know that the device has a dedicated decompression block AND tensor cores, which, if optimised for, could pick up a lot of the slack. There could be some situations, AI related for instance, that could run faster on Switch 2, even if the resolution of the game is lower.

It's definitely not a simple or direct comparison. It's a very different architecture with a very different featureset optimised for low power consumption at high output resolutions.

It's not a last gen device. It's a current gen device that's really efficient.

 

[Foltzie]

99% will have overestimated REDACTED Power.
Just like with Switch and Wii U and Wii.

Someone should archive this thread and review it when the successor does come out. We will meticulously analyze which person in the thread was closest to what actually happens with the successor. Winner gets a free trip to Nintendo Land (I'm serious).

This thread will see some folks outright map actual results to predicted results and see which expert had the right set of assumptions.

Heck I wouldn’t be shocked if this thread ends up delidding a T239 if one of the publications doesn’t do it themselves.

 

[Lancelot]

Are we seeing a N64 situation?


Nintendo? Pffft.

I'm curious, too. There's only so much they can do until they will start to cut down textures and the stuff that even made last gen games look this good at first place. Though, given they don't make bloated open worlds filled with voice acting and lots of unique textures, the 32 GB average should indeed suffice for all of their linear (non-open world) stuff. After all, games like GOW and Horizon are 40-50 GB on PC if you get rid of all the language packs except the yours during install.

 

[Concernt]

This thread will see some folks outright map actual results to predicted results and see which expert had the right set of assumptions.

Heck I wouldn’t be shocked if this thread ends up delidding a T239 if one of the publications doesn’t do it themselves.

The thread will gain sentience and a corporeal form and use this to steal and X-ray a T239. We know they're out there.

(But it wouldn't be de-lidded, since console SOCs don't tend to be... Lidded. The die is on a substrate and directly thermally connected to the heat sink.)

 

[Concernt]

Are we seeing a N64 situation?


Nintendo? Pffft.

We aren't seeing an N64 situation. The Xbox Game Disk stores 50GB by default. At absolute maximum, it would be 128GB.

Sure that's more than 32GB, or more than 64GB at the high end, but it's not ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more. N64 Game Paks launched at 1/100th the size of data CDs. Two orders of magnitude! Even the absolute highest capacity was still one tenth the size of a CD.

This device will also be dealing with less RAM than Xbox Series X, and lower internal rendering resolutions, so likely won't need exactly as much space anyway. If things get hairy, it can always do what Xbox does and force install half or more of the game from the internet. My hope for internal storage on Switch 2 is 256GB, but they could go with 128GB, which could be limiting.

 

[Lancelot]

Think more PS4 Pro BEFORE DLSS in raw grunt.

A better point of comparison would probably be Series S. Under Series S in raw grunt, but with higher output resolutions, and the power delta (in TV mode) would probably be bridged by lower internal resolutions. Where S does raw 1440p, Switch 2 does 1080p->4K with DLSS, etc. Some games that really push it might sacrifice DLSS and target 1080p with other, more lightweight upscaling techniques.

Handheld and Tabletop mode are likely going to land in the "half a Series S" category, but with a target output/screen resolution of 1080p and most games using DLSS and only needing to render 360-720p depending on the mode, including the possibility of dynamic resolution, it's not going to be a problem.

Porting from Xbox Series S, or even PS5, to Nintendo Switch 2, is likely going to be far, far quicker and easier than PS4 to Nintendo Switch.

The bottlenecks it has could present speedbumps, like the likely much slower storage speed and lower single core performance. This could cause things like physics lag, asset streaming problems, or loading time increases. However, we know that the device has a dedicated decompression block AND tensor cores, which, if optimised for, could pick up a lot of the slack. There could be some situations, AI related for instance, that could run faster on Switch 2, even if the resolution of the game is lower.

It's definitely not a simple or direct comparison. It's a very different architecture with a very different featureset optimised for low power consumption at high output resolutions.

It's not a last gen device. It's a current gen device that's really efficient.

I mean, it is pretty much a device meant to fight the Series S and not anything from last gen, that's right.

We aren't seeing an N64 situation. The Xbox Game Disk stores 50GB by default. At absolute maximum, it would be 128GB.

Sure that's more than 32GB, or more than 64GB at the high end, but it's not ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more. N64 Game Paks launched at 1/100th the size of data CDs. Two orders of magnitude! Even the absolute highest capacity was still one tenth the size of a CD.

This device will also be dealing with less RAM than Xbox Series X, and lower internal rendering resolutions, so likely won't need exactly as much space anyway. If things get hairy, it can always do what Xbox does and force install half or more of the game from the internet. My hope for internal storage on Switch 2 is 256GB, but they could go with 128GB, which could be limiting.

Being lower powered doesn't mean it'll get that worse quality assets. Textures will definitely target 1080p at the very least and not 4K because that's what docked is probably targetting so they can't go any lower (or higher) than that, but 1080p assets are still really beefy in sizes. DLSS with bad textures doesn't exactly shine in comparison to just having a low res, high fidelity render. Nintendo can definitely optimize their way through, but it is a bottleneck for pretty much any game accounting to run on docked with the assets you'd expect, as well as every 3rd party unless they go out of their way to get a 64 GB cart themselves.

 

[Dekuman]

My guess is probably not since Macronix mentioned starting mass production of Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND this year (here and here).

It's possible, but your quoted links from Jan/Feb references the 96 layer NAND entering mass production at time of reporting

From Taipei Times:

However, Macronix has no plans to slow down its progress in 3D NAND and NOR flash memory chips, as the 96-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips have entered mass production, it said.

That would be more than enough time to get the carts produced and ready for May, And who else would they be mass producing for since Nintendo is the biggest consumer of those chips.

 

[Dakhil]

Heck I wouldn’t be shocked if this thread ends up delidding a T239 if one of the publications doesn’t do it themselves.

Delidding's probably not required for T239 since SoCs don't come installed with integrated heat spreaders (IHS). But T239 probably needs to be removed from the package before the die can be exposed.

But exposing the die is a very difficult (and potentially dangerous) process, as FritzchensFritz's video below shows.

 

[Concernt]

To quote Kirby and the Forgotten Land

And here we are!

The intermezzo between Tears of the Kingdom and Pikmin 4. Two months with no Nintendo published games and no announced events. Do we really think they'll end June with nothing announced for after Pikmin 4?

I can't see it happening.

Meanwhile, apparently, or as some say, for entertainment purposes only,

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The SOC has been taped out for over a year. Likely even manufactured in time for May last year given some things we've seen.

The SDK has existed for over a year already. Dev kits have been rumoured for years and now, perhaps, could even have been broadly distributed for final porting.

June is nearly upon us. Whether we're ready or not.

 

[Dakhil]

 

[TomNookYankees]

?????. I concede on the Wii U, which was much weaker than anticipated. But Wii and Switch??? Nope. I'd argue both systems outperformed their performance expectations before launch. A lot of us are guessing with NGH, some guesses might be off, others be right. We're in uncharted territory.

Switch was around what people were expecting/hoping once they realized it would be a handheld. No one was expecting PS4 levels of performance for a handheld in 2016.

But the Wii was way below what most people were thinking/hoping though. They figured nintendo wasn't really just going going to overclock the GCN hardware, add a little extra RAM, put in only half a gigabyte of internal storage, and call that their next gen console. But that is exactly what they did.

 

[lattjeful]

99% will have overestimated REDACTED Power.
Just like with Switch and Wii U and Wii.

Not sure on your last point, thanks to the Nvidia leak.

 

[Angel Whispers]

Having read this, I’m honestly curious what the max permissive clock speeds would have been for a SoC like T239 in say, some set too box.

ie, what is the highest clock frequency possible before it ruins the bed.

Like, uh, 2GHz GPU and 3GHz for the CPU perhaps?


Utter chaos

Hmmm… A set top box/more traditional home console wouldn’t be subject to the same conditions, so, it could be a similar size to the Wii U, perhaps slimmer, as it wouldn't have a disc drive, but still with more cooling tech than the Switch. A battery wouldn’t be part of the costs, as there would be no portable mode to consider for it. You could have all of Orin’s 2048 CUDA Cores. More, even. If that had similar clocks to Steam Deck, XSX or PS5, we would be looking at anything from a prospective 6.4 to 9.1TF GPU. The Drake SoC at such clocks would be 4.9 to 6.85TF. A78C clocks up to 3.3GHz. Overall, it could end up with a better performance than those systems because RT, DLSS, etc., would still be there, while having a more modern architecture than them, AND lower power consumption. But I don’t see them returning to the traditional home console space. One can just leave their Switch in the dock, and Voilà… Set top box/home console!!

 

[TLZ]

We aren't seeing an N64 situation. The Xbox Game Disk stores 50GB by default. At absolute maximum, it would be 128GB.

Sure that's more than 32GB, or more than 64GB at the high end, but it's not ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more. N64 Game Paks launched at 1/100th the size of data CDs. Two orders of magnitude! Even the absolute highest capacity was still one tenth the size of a CD.

That's the keyword, disc. What I meant was the storage per $ situation. Sizes are only increasing and more storage needed, and in Nintendo's situation it's the more costly carts again. I wonder if they can keep the cost at a manageable number and avoid more expensive storage, for both us customers and 3rd parties.

 

[Concernt]

Hmmm… A set top box/more traditional home console wouldn’t be subject to the same conditions, so, it could be a similar size to the Wii U, perhaps slimmer, as it wouldn't have a disc drive, but still with more cooling tech than the Switch. A battery wouldn’t be part of the costs, as there would be no portable mode to consider for it. You could have all of Orin’s 2048 CUDA Cores. More, even. If that had similar clocks to Steam Deck, XSX or PS5, we would be looking at anything from a prospective 6.4 to 9.1TF GPU. The Drake SoC at such clocks would be 4.9 to 6.85TF. A78C clocks up to 3.3GHz. Overall, it could end up with a better performance than those systems because RT, DLSS, etc., would still be there, while having a more modern architecture than them, AND lower power consumption. But I don’t see them returning to the traditional home console space. One can just leave their Switch in the dock, and Voilà… Set top box/home console!!

They're setting themselves up to allow for a scalable architecture. It's possible we see devices in the Switch 2 family of systems that are more powerful, home console only variants. Within the limitations of "it must run all games of the current generation" and the "flagship" console will always be a hybrid for them going forward, they can do almost any formfactor they like with the family of systems.

One I'd really like to see is a New 2DS XL sized clamshell design with circle pads and a (possibly sold separately) mini dock. I could see a device like that slotting between the T239 powered Lite and the full size T239 based device, as a "premium handheld" akin to GPD.

As long as they keep the software library compatible, and I think they're very well positioned to do that, they can choose to fill any market they like. With their relationship with Nvidia or Google, they could even offer Cloud Gaming.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why does "FrameGenRatio" imply that specifically instead of "4" meaning that for every four real frames, they generate one frame.

 

[Concernt]

That's the keyword, disc. What I meant was the storage per $ situation. Sizes are only increasing and more storage needed, and in Nintendo's situation it's the more costly carts again. I wonder if they can keep the cost at a manageable number and avoid more expensive storage, for both us customers and 3rd parties.

The cost of memory goes down over time, especially for NAND flash, especially at large scale. With the one exception of not being able to press their disks from a simple master, they're as well positioned as they could be for physical game prices and density improving for them over time. Plus it has many advantages over disk. Like usually having the full game on the Game Card, being able to run it entirely off the Game Card, and much higher theoretical capacities provided costs scale.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The cost of memory goes down over time, especially for NAND flash, especially at large scale. With the one exception of not being able to press their disks from a simple master, they're as well positioned as they could be for physical game prices and density improving for them over time. Plus it has many advantages over disk. Like usually having the full game on the Game Card, being able to run it entirely off the Game Card, and much higher theoretical capacities provided costs scale.

IDK, 32 GB carts still being $14 per cart implies this has not been getting much cheaper.

That's really expensive compared to most discs IIRC.

 

[TomNookYankees]

Are we seeing a N64 situation?

Nintendo has in effect left the non-handheld console market in order to better secure their hold on the handheld console market where cheap low power hardware is much more beneficial than in the dedicated home console market and even in a worst case scenario where the carts needed are very expensive, I don't think that's an N64 situation because devs will always have the option to just opt for digital only release, an option they didn't have with the N64, and it's not like disks are a viable medium for handhelds so there's no way Sony or MS will swoop in with a handheld with an inexpensive 50GB+ medium. Sony tried UMDs with the PSP and it didn't work out well which is why they went digital only for the PSP Go and with Carts for the PSVita.

 

[D36]

To quote Kirby and the Forgotten Land

And here we are!

The intermezzo between Tears of the Kingdom and Pikmin 4. Two months with no Nintendo published games and no announced events. Do we really think they'll end June with nothing announced for after Pikmin 4?

I can't see it happening.

Meanwhile, apparently, or as some say, for entertainment purposes only,

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


The SOC has been taped out for over a year. Likely even manufactured in time for May last year given some things we've seen.

The SDK has existed for over a year already. Dev kits have been rumoured for years and now, perhaps, could even have been broadly distributed for final porting.

June is nearly upon us. Whether we're ready or not.

 

[ILikeFeet]

That's the keyword, disc. What I meant was the storage per $ situation. Sizes are only increasing and more storage needed, and in Nintendo's situation it's the more costly carts again. I wonder if they can keep the cost at a manageable number and avoid more expensive storage, for both us customers and 3rd parties.

third parties would simply just go digital only or go the same route as the other systems with the card holding the authentication key

Why does "FrameGenRatio" imply that specifically instead of "4" meaning that for every four real frames, they generate one frame.

because you're not really gaining gaining fluidity at that point. for 60fps, you get an extra 15 frames, or 75fps. where as 4 frames get you 240fps

 

[ShadowFox08]

So, a 128GB cart? Jesus Christ. Must cost a fortune if ever actually used.

100 card or bust

I haven't said much in this thread in a while (because of the lack of news mostly), but the last time the gap was discussed Drake was going to find itself too bandwidth limited to realistically match the Series S in gaming scenarios, but thanks to Ampere features and much better RT (as well as the same R&D that somehow got TOTK into the Switch), Drake will actually look and feel like a current gen console in practice. Although the jump between PS4 and PS5 was massive and this console will pay the price for being a handheld going against them, Drake technically already has two of the main gimmicks this generation. Solid state and ridiculously more powerful CPUs. Add it up true raytracing and this thing will kick ass for sure, you can see why it shouldn't be measured with last gen as the baseline for those reasons, especially when DLSS is also a true factor here.

I think it's fair to say the jump from switch to Drake will be just as big in every way possible in regards to CPU, GPU, and bandwidth. We're expecting the CPU power gap to be at the very least like switch vs PS4 (3.5x), although we Nintendo could close the gap further with Drake if we get 1.5Ghz CPU for 7 cores towards gaming. That being said, I'm not counting current gen CPU cores having better single core performance per GHz vs A78, but if we get the A78c with more L3 cache than A78, that could really help...

.

As for GPU, going from 393 tflops to 3 tflops is about 7.6x more, not including hardware efficiencies from a new GPU hardware, and not including DLSS.

We will most likely get a bigger jump in RAM amount (from 4 to 12 or 26GB), but not as a big jump in SSD speed (but 1-2GB/s would be fast enough for it's needs).

 

[Pokemaniac]

That's the keyword, disc. What I meant was the storage per $ situation. Sizes are only increasing and more storage needed, and in Nintendo's situation it's the more costly carts again. I wonder if they can keep the cost at a manageable number and avoid more expensive storage, for both us customers and 3rd parties.

The N64 wasn't merely a situation of games being more expensive. The optical discs used by the competition held around 10x as much data as the largest ever N64 carts, and it wasn't uncommon for games to use more than one. While Switch carts are still more expensive, a single density improvement to 64GB would be more than half of the largest PS5/XS disc (to my knowledge), and 128 GB, which would exceed the competition's capacity, seems quite plausible if there's an overall improvement to the cartridge tech.

Cost is an issue, but the deficiencies in capacity are unlikely to reach anywhere near that which plagued the N64.

 

[Look over there]

Good catch, @ReddDreadtheLead!

It's a single data point, but here is a representative comparison with a Zen 2 CPU.

https://browser.geekbench.com/v6/cpu/compare/1322044?baseline=1292153

Strictly speaking, that's actually a Zen 3. Since the name's Cezanne and the L3 cache is that of the monolithic variants, it should be the 5700G or GE, but the listed clock's not quite it
Advertised base clock is 3.2 ghz (GE) or 3.8 ghz (G). Both SKUs have max clock of 4.6 ghz.
I assume that for a single thread test, default behavior should result in sustaining max clock with ease in a desktop?

 

[Cuzizkool]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[fwd-bwd]

It's possible, but your quoted links from Jan/Feb references the 96 layer NAND entering mass production at time of reporting

That would be more than enough time to get the carts produced and ready for May, And who else would they be mass producing for since Nintendo is the biggest consumer of those chips.

The latest report from MoneyDJ (thanks @Hartmann) and also Economic Daily News indicated that the 96-layer product is pending client verification before entering mass production. Since the founder/CEO of Macronix is rather… let’s just say media friendly, he would’ve shouted from the rooftops loudly if it indeed entered production.

Irresponsible speculation: The founder/CEO of Macronix has been hyping up the 96-layer product for years (e.g., that article found by @Dekuman), but it never left the R&D process until the recent statement of it undergoing “verification”. Is Nintendo developing an updated Game Card for the Drake model?

Edit: Typo

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Somewhat late to the party, but the 4060 prices are reasonable.

Orin launched 20 months after the 3090. Drake launching in a similar window after Lovelace, with GPU prices seeming to be falling back within historical norms - obviously the node decision was made a while back, but I can't see a reason for 5nm-class to be a problem.

Here is the size of the die.

Here's the machine translation. Doesn't say anything about capacity, but i assume more layers = more capacity.
If we can find out how many layers the current Flash ROMs are, you can probably guesstimate capacity, but 32GB being cheaper seems to be a good guess.



Edit: according to this, they had a 48 layer tech go into mass production in 2021. 96 layers is 2X 48, so it is possible we're looking at doubling of capacities at the same price.

Macronix 3D NAND Flash product development by the end of 2023 - TechGoing

(Macronix) is a manufacturer of integrated non-volatile memory solutions, headquartered in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan, China, with a leading position in ROM, NOR Flash and NAND Flash. Macronix currently owns a 12″ wafer fab and an 8″ wafer fab; the 6″ wafer fab was sold to Hon Hai in August...

www.techgoing.com

Further, an earlier report had their 96 layer tech slated initially for 2020. This likely was the long delayed Switch 64GB cartridges

Macronix: we can build 3D NAND cheaper than all the rest – Blocks and Files

Macronix, a Taiwanese semiconductor firm, is to build 48- and 96-layer 3D NAND – and it thinks it can cut industry prices by up to a third. Macronix is a small player in the NAND market and also makes NOR flash and ROM products. It will start production of 96-layer 3D NAND at the end […]

blocksandfiles.com

Also and Anand tech article talking about them starting with 48 layer 3D NAND flash in 2020. I'm assuming the previous 32GB carts were on 48 layers or even older tech. I wonder if the new TOTK 32GB carts are on the 96 layers tech. It would align with Macronix noting it has gone into mass production. I would assume it would take the release of the 192 layer tech to get the 32GB carts to be as cheap as the current 16GB configurations.

Macronix to Start Shipments of 3D NAND in 2020

www.anandtech.com

The 32GB aren’t the 48-layer which are supposedly around a gigabyte per second in speed, would be a waste on the switch and those are supposed to be 64GB.

96 layer is supposed to be 128 in that case and close to 2GB/s in speed. Again, a big waste on the switch.

99% will have overestimated REDACTED Power.
Just like with Switch and Wii U and Wii.

Ok. If you know so much what is the power level of Drake then. I’d love to read it.

Is this going to be another PS3 Pro+ comment that made no sense.

Strictly speaking, that's actually a Zen 3. Since the name's Cezanne and the L3 cache is that of the monolithic variants, it should be the 5700G or GE, but the listed clock's not quite it
Advertised base clock is 3.2 ghz (GE) or 3.8 ghz (G). Both SKUs have max clock of 4.6 ghz.
I assume that for a single thread test, default behavior should result in sustaining max clock with ease in a desktop?

Yes! GB takes the performance at the max clock frequency, but it just gives the base clock frequency.

So it would be at 4.6GHz for that level of performance.

 

[TLZ]

third parties would simply just go digital only or go the same route as the other systems with the card holding the authentication key

Which would be a sad situation for us physical fans.

I just wonder if this would force them back into the disc space. Meaning non-portable home consoles, again. If they still cared about physical and would rather use much cheaper storage.

I do also wonder where the physical storage medium is headed next. What new technology is on the horizon.

But I fear this future that's digital only. It's much cheaper and gets rid of physical medium altogether.

 

[ertaboy356b]

The latest report from MoneyDJ (thanks @Hartmann) and also Economic Daily News indicated that the 96-layer product is pending client verification before entering mass production. Since the founder/CEO of Macronix is rather… let’s just say media friendly, he would’ve shouted from the rooftops loudly if it indeed entered production.

Irresponsible speculation: The founder/CEO of Macronix has been hyping up the 96-layer product for years (e.g., that article found by @Dekuman), but it never left the R&D process until the recent statement of it ungoing “verification”. Is Nintendo developing an updated Game Card for the Drake model?

Maybe it's an internal chip and not for gamecards.

 

[adiGuba]

we dont know if Nintendo is gonna charge $70 for they games next gen, Tears of the Kingdom was charged $70 because of the game massive size, the game needed a 32GB cartdridge

I think it has nothing to do with the next gen game price, and that it will remain specific to Zelda or some other big titles.

Because that's was alerady like that in others régions !!!

It's only a globalization of the pricing policy. In Europe the main Zelda already cost 10€ more since years (like BOTW, but also SS and TP on Wii).
And unless I'm mistaken, it was also the case in Japan.

 

[TLZ]

Cost is an issue, but the deficiencies in capacity are unlikely to reach anywhere near that which plagued the N64.

I hope so.

 

[TomNookYankees]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[fwd-bwd]

~This is speculation territory. So proceed with caution.~
Assuming Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND is comparable to Intel SSD 665p, then Macronix's 96-layer 3D NAND could be capable of up to 2 GB/s of sequential read speeds, which is comparable to UFS 3.0/3.1.

There's also a rumour from a couple of years ago that Nintendo's sampling Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND. And assuming Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND is comparable to Samsung's PM953, then Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND could be capable of up to 1 GB/s of sequential read speeds, which is comparable to UFS 2.1/2.2.

Asking people who are knowledgeable about memory I/O: Does the Game Card need to be updated to reach these hypothetical speeds? Take the SD cards for example, extra pins are required for UHS-II, UHS-III, and SD Express:

Aside from ensuring backward compatibility, a potential benefit of extra pins might be to prevent piracy of cross-gen titles. In theory, Nintendo can include a private key that’s only accessible from the extra pins, and the private key is used to unlock Drake-only features and assets (e.g., 8 player co-op, DLSS, hi-res textures, etc.). If one dumps the ROM via a hacked Erista/Mariko model, they can’t access the key and thus can only dump it as a last-gen game, not cross-gen. Without any dumped cross-gen titles, it might be exceedingly difficult to develop an emulator for the Drake model.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Pokemaniac]

Asking people who are knowledgeable about memory I/O: Does the Game Card need to be updated to reach these hypothetical speeds? Take the SD cards for example, extra pins are required for UHS-II, UHS-III, and SD Express:

Aside from ensuring backward compatibility, a potential benefit of extra pins might be to prevent piracy of cross-gen titles. In theory, Nintendo can include a private key that’s only accessible from the extra pins, and the private key is used to unlock Drake-only features and assets (e.g., 8 player co-op, DLSS, hi-res textures, etc.). If one dumps the ROM via a hacked Erista/Mariko model, they can’t access the key and thus can only dump it as a last-gen game, not cross-gen. Without any dumped cross-gen titles, it might be exceedingly difficult to develop an emulator for the Drake model.


* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

The chips will have to be updated for faster speeds, and they'll almost certainly need a new cart controller ASIC in the console to actually run the communication at faster speeds (Switch carts appear to use a controller-less design, where the carts are just pure memory with a bus attached (sometimes without even a full PCB) and the controller is on the console motherboard (likely as a cost-saving measure)), but whether the physical interface has to change is somewhat of an open question. I'm not really an expert on the hardware engineering side, but basically my understanding is that the two basic approaches you might take to speeding up a physical interface like this would be either adding more pins, to send more data in parallel, or just tightening the tolerances and driving the pins you do have faster. SD decided to add more pins to get past UHS I, but I think that partially comes down to SD, like certain other older "universal" interfaces, having a lot of weird legacy cruft to deal with and actually sort of encapsulating at least 2 or 3 different protocols to communicate with the cards. I don't think there's really an obvious answer for which approach suits Nintendo's needs best.

Historically, Nintendo does frequently at least attempt to prevent physical insertion of carts that are not compatible, but usually this is accomplished more with the shape of the cart casing than anything to do with the pins directly.

 

[Hermii]

Ehh I don't know how anyone would have gotten the Wii correct. Most were completely blindsided by what happened, particularly considering early dev of the the GC successor and related rumors were for a more powerful device. As far as the Switch, it's final clocks definitely came in lower that what many were hoping/guessing. And you definitely had a contingent of people hoping for/expecting the X2/16nm

That was all under different management though, so there's probably less of a chance of being way off base and Nintendo just reusing the X1 or something lol.

Yep. I wasnt around for Wii speculation, but I can't imagine it was accurate. WUST is legendary, and a lot of people were blindsided by the tx1 being it's 100% off the shelf 20nm self.

 

[Mirev]

We entered the real uncharted territory

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Not sure on your last point, thanks to the Nvidia leak.

There is a lot unknown even if the leak contains the correct info regarding REDACTED and t239.
Clock speeds, memory amount and speed etc.
Anyway, we’ll see soon I hope !

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Yep. I wasnt around for Wii speculation, but I can't imagine it was accurate. WUST is legendary, and a lot of people were blindsided by the tx1 being it's 100% off the shelf 20nm self.

No one , including me thought that Wii would be so weak and so close to GameCube

 

[Concernt]

WUST 2: "Tegra X1+ again"

 

[Stefan51278]

But the Wii was way below what most people were thinking/hoping though. They figured nintendo wasn't really just going going to overclock the GCN hardware, add a little extra RAM, put in only half a gigabyte of internal storage, and call that their next gen console. But that is exactly what they did.

Yeah, I remember Satoru Iwata announcing a new home console called "Revolution" and he said "the graphics will make you say Wow!". Fan-pages had absurd theories how to pack good graphics in the small then-called-revolution-console they showed us and were in utter disbelief when Matt Casamassina for IGN broke the news it was 1.5 Gamecubes duct-taped.

 

[ILikeFeet]

There is a lot unknown even if the leak contains the correct info regarding REDACTED and t239.
Clock speeds, memory amount and speed etc.
Anyway, we’ll see soon I hope !

That's why many folks start from Switch clocks, despite it being far under optimal with power consumption. Switch clocks on 8nm is a very pessimistic guess that borders on not even being physically possible. If you think that's overshooting, your own predictions might break the laws of physics

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Yeah, I remember Satoru Iwata announcing a new home console called "Revolution" and he said "the graphics will make you say Wow!". Fan-pages had absurd theories how to pack good graphics in the small then-called-revolution-console they showed us and were in utter disbelief when Matt Casamassina for IGN broke the news it was 1.5 Gamecubes duct-taped.

Matt was great during the Gamecube days.

 

[olobolger]

Regarding the cost of 32 GB carts, I did a quick exercise trying to check how much could they cost with a few facts and other assumed data, based on the known 32 GB carts games published by Limited Run Games:

Game​	Cart cost​	Game licence (Publisher | Nintendo)​	Other costs​	LRG price​	Margin​
Doom Eternal​	$15​	$40 ($28 | $[6 – 12])​	$5​	$60​	$[0 – 6]?​
KOTOR II​	$15​	$15 ($11.5 | $[2.25 – 4.5])​	$5​	$35​	$[0 – 2.25]?​
Alien: Isolation​	$15​	$20 ($14 | $[3 – 6])​	$5​	$40​	$[0 – 3]?​

For third parties cost, I am setting just a dollar more than what he was talking about for first party. And as Nate talked about cart cost for Nintendo, I guess he strictly means the necessary amount to produce that physical media, with that cost not accounting for Nintendo platform royalties for games. In other case, the game licence could be different. But I don't think it's the case, as that cut is always based on the game price.

Also, I am setting the Nintendo cut on a physically published game in a margin between 15% and 30%, with the maximum being what is assumed the fee on the eShop and most digital storefronts.

Other costs should include: general costs such as manufacturing and storing all the needed pieces, design needs for everything (cover, sticker, manual, cards...), the carts shipping from Japan?, and unitary costs such as the game case, cover, cart sticker, manual, and LRG numbered card in the case of Doom Eternal and KOTOR II. For Alien: Isolation, there won't be a LRG numbered card included, following a LRG policy change. I think it's a lot, but let's imagine that maximizing economies of scale, $5 could be the bare minimum for all these things.

As this has a lot of assumed data, this could be adjusted in different ways (for example, the cart sticker might be included in the cart cost). But seeing the LRG margin in other games, I am not sure if they will be producing these games for a margin that could be minimal in the case of the carts being even higher than $15.

Specially, I can see them reaching some kind of deal with Aspyr, as they have published a lot of games together, and they even now are both part of Embracer Group, so LRG could be getting some more margin by paying a reduced fee for Aspyr. You can consider that Doom Eternal could have a good LRG cut if the Nintendo fee is around 15% for physical games. But, what happens with Alien: Isolation? That one is a 2019 Nintendo Switch release, so I don't think it being physically published now when millions of 32 GB carts are being produced is a coincidence.

Nate said the info is valid as of the end of last year, and that it could be a dollar or two less now. But I think 32 GB cart cost have been reduced to around $12 for third parties in the anticipation of the release of Tears of the Kingdom.

 

[Mr Swine]

Any possibilities that developers could just have 720p videos/FMV and let Drake upscale it like Ampere and Ada do to save storage space?

 

[SiG]

Any possibilities that developers could just have 720p videos/FMV and let Drake upscale it like Ampere and Ada do to save storage space?

Newer codecs like AV1 are much more efficient than the h264/h265 codecs inlucded in most Switch games (if not older). It's likely they might include 1080p video and then upscale, or actually have codecs that have pre-encoded AI-assistance (to utilize tensor cores and whatnot) to actually output a "correct" 4k video output using less storage.

I do wonder if AI data encode/decoding for data such as textures and video will become a thing instead of the usual "AI taking a guesswork at extrapolatiing righer data".