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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

To be fair, $70 TOTK could be due to a bigger and/or faster cart. 32Mb games sold for $70 or more in the SNES days, maybe this one is 32-64GB. Do we have other examples of a higher price due to the cart size?
Afaik Witcher 3 and Dragon Quest Heroes 1+2 are the only 32 GB carts so far, and the latter is Japan exclusive

The Japanese version of the Final Fantasy X/X-2 remaster, Attack on Titan 2 Final Battle, and SD Gundam G Generations: Cross Rays do as well
 
I wouldn't suggest $70 is the new ceiling for all Switch games, but given the work that likely went into TotK as one example, they may selectively push some titles to that pricepoint with that justification, yeah. It's unfortunate but not totally unexpected. Nintendo are still capitalists at the end of the day.
Can you repoint me to your post. I'm having trouble imagining big savings, because while you can remove the dock connections, you still need the IO support, which maybe the SOC can address directly, but I would also presume would functionally be sharing the USB-C line even on a Switch-TV motherboard.

My greater point being USB ports, HDMI, and LAN connects would be expected on a putative Switch TV.

Along with whatever controller decision Nintendo makes, be it Pro, Joy-Con plus Charging grip, or none.

There are savings to be had, certainly, but I dont know that such a device is automatically considerably cheaper than say a Switch Lite

Edit: lost an edit, but in addition to cleaning this up a bit I pointed out the ShieldTV is being sold at $180 w/o a controller.

Not trying to be pedantic. I’m legitimately interested in what the current BOM for Switch is and how that might inform future hardware moves.
You got it:
Considering that Nintendo trimmed Home menu assets down to less than 200KB, I have to agree, the memory usage by the system may go up, but we should not expect that substantial of a jump.

Also, the board itself would require less copper by running current between fewer components.

Went to check the IFixit teardown, the specific ICs that would be removable from the console itself in the scenario of a TV-only version would likely be:
Rohm BM92T36 USB-C controller
Texas Instruments BQ24193 single cell battery charger
Pericom Semiconductor PI3USB30532 USB 3.0/DP1.2 matrix switch
STMicroelectronics LSM6DS3H 3-axis accelerometer/gyroscope
Maxim Integrated MAX17050 battery fuel gauge
Rohm BH1603FVC ambient light sensor

Without knowing how they’re used, you could maybe take out one of the two Maxim Integrated MAX77621AEWI+T three phase buck regulators in it, too.

You replace all of these with PSU for power, a USB controller for USB accessories and harvest an IC out of the dock (Megachips STDP2550 Mobility DisplayPort to HDMI Converter) and likely able to not carry over the remaining 6 ICs in the dock (might have to keep the 2 CMOS ICs in it, dunno), as most of it is for USB-C power management.

And if the Game Card board (which is separate from the rest) is redesigned to remove the headphone jack, they could also remove the STMicroelectronics FingerTip touchscreen controller from that board, as well, but this might be one of the moments where a redesign is not ideal like you suggest and we’d have a console with a headphone jack inexplicably as a cost-saving measure. But who knows, they added the onboard flash storage directly to the main board in the OLED revision to remove one of the only other boards separate from the main board and redesigned so that 2 of the separate boards (SD card slot and Game Card slot) became one combined board, so… who knows.

So yeah, even without knowing the precise cost of each chip, that’s a LOT of them required to make the hybrid function a reality and would trim a significant cost.
The specific ICs in the dock other than the 3 mentioned (2 CMOS flash chips and the DP-to-HDMI converter) are:

Rohm BM92T17 USB-C power delivery controller
STMicroelectronics STM32P048 32-bit microcontroller
VIA Labs VL210 USB 3.0 Hub Controller
Rohm BM92T55 USB-C power delivery controller

So in total, at least 11-12 ICs can literally disappear from a TV-only revision to be replaced by 2 or so ICs that are more standard-issue (read: cheaper), since all of those exist only to facilitate the hybrid design. And that's before you start ripping big-ticket parts out.
Wii Mini launched in Canada on December 7th, 2012. Wii U launched in the US and Canada on November 18th, 2012.
Huh. Coulda sworn I saw it at London Drugs before I bought my Wii U.
I agree with the point here, but IMO it was more during the pandemic than before. In 2019 they may have been deciding the big picture of what they wanted to do, but the project seems to have gotten underway in 2020, which might advantageously have given them perspective from the pandemic near the start of development.
R&D spend went up before 2020 (more precisely started to go up significantly in late 2018/early 2019, IIRC), so it was definitely underway before 2020. Again, gotta dig deeper on that.


nintendo-doomed.gif

I'm being 100% facetious here.




People have been expecting a downturn to happen eventually, and they're not mincing words and expect this to be the beginning of a progressive downward sales turn, and investors aren't waiting for things to get worse, they're sending their signals now, doing the "vote with your dollars" thing we wish we could actually do but is, in reality, exclusively reserved for investors at this decision-making level.

When you're a publicly-traded company, your share price is beholden to who invests and Nintendo is getting the signal that, if they've pushed hardware back too far, they've waited too long to introduce it in investors' estimation. This has been an imminent concern for the past year or so and Nintendo's been able to beat it back, but they were never going to be able to do that forever.

Nintendo's not doomed, but investors have every reason to consider that no new hardware known at this stage of Switch's lifespan has hurt long-term earning prospects. We debate that here off and on quite a fair bit.
To be fair, Nintendo set the expectations with overly optimistic forecast that they've then had to revise multiple times. Which, keep in mind they initially claimed they were revising due to supply chain issues, and then admitted with the most recent revision that it was due to lack of demand, which makes it seem like they weren't exactly being truthful a few months back.

So you now have a situation where both shareholder and internal expectations are not being met, due to a clear lessening of demand rather than any nebulous supply chain issue. Meanwhile the company has not indicated what their next move is, either to bolster Switch sales or to replace it with a new platform. So at the moment it would seem like the company was caught with it's pants down, and are unprepared for the current reality. Looking at the numbers we've seen so far in Q4 for Japan, I don't think it's guaranteed that they'll even hit their new revised number either, so that would be indicative of further acceleration rather than a steady decline.

Not like Wii "drop off a cliff" decline, but obviously concerning from a shareholder perspective who would be keen for Nintendo to avoid a big decrease in revenue that normally comes as they transition to a new hardware generation, which is now more pronounced as they have a single platform. All of the above is why I've been saying for a while that they will probably have to say something about future hardware at the FY briefing or leading up to it.
Also, this. All of this.
 
R&D spend went up before 2020 (more precisely started to go up significantly in late 2018/early 2019, IIRC), so it was definitely underway before 2020. Again, gotta dig deeper on that.
R&D has gone up every year since a dip in FY17 when the Switch launched, but the first notable jump was in the FY ended March 2020. They most likely did planning in 2019 and kickoff in 2020. 2018 is not in the picture except for revisions and/or the general R&D into hardware that Nintendo does every single year, which isn't related to the issue of planning before or during the pandemic for the currently upcoming hardware.

People have been expecting a downturn to happen eventually, and they're not mincing words and expect this to be the beginning of a progressive downward sales turn, and investors aren't waiting for things to get worse, they're sending their signals now, doing the "vote with your dollars" thing we wish we could actually do but is, in reality, exclusively reserved for investors at this decision-making level.

When you're a publicly-traded company, your share price is beholden to who invests and Nintendo is getting the signal that, if they've pushed hardware back too far, they've waited too long to introduce it in investors' estimation. This has been an imminent concern for the past year or so and Nintendo's been able to beat it back, but they were never going to be able to do that forever.

Nintendo's not doomed, but investors have every reason to consider that no new hardware known at this stage of Switch's lifespan has hurt long-term earning prospects. We debate that here off and on quite a fair bit.
They're not "voting" with anything, since Nintendo's hardware plans are completely independent of their share price and not capable of changing fast enough even if they wanted to try to respond to it (which they don't). Investors are just doing what they always do, which is apparently imagining unrealistic scenarios, acting surprised when Nintendo does what they always do, and then selling stock because they think it's the best way for them to make money at that moment.

And the analysts and "industry" have been saying they expect new hardware in H2 2024 for some time now, so it's not like anything even changed on that front.
 
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it definitely doesn't look good. by no means doomed but more of a confused why let a decline run for so long unless absolutely neccesary. more than anything i'm curious as to what software is going to fill the void once Zelda is out. there's a big gap between then and the scary sounding H2 2024 date. more Gamecube remasters? lets hope it's much sooner than that. I think it will be.
 
Nintendo stated they have learned from past mistakes like the 3DS (priced too high, lack of games) and the Wii U (HD Wii launched too late to pick up the Wii momentum left).
I know what was discussed and the claims of pulled back developer kits etc. it just doesn’t line up with me.
The performance of the intended node might have changed the release window. Especially with DLSS and battery life in mind.

I think Nintendo can milk the Switch another year by filling their library with classics/remasters. That might help to prepare a stronger launch line up for the next system. That might compensate lower HW numbers with software sales but also endanger loosing the momentum for the “HD” Switch.
 
it definitely doesn't look good. by no means doomed but more of a confused why let a decline run for so long unless absolutely neccesary. more than anything i'm curious as to what software is going to fill the void once Zelda is out. there's a big gap between then and the scary sounding H2 2024 date. more Gamecube remasters? lets hope it's much sooner than that. I think it will be.
They let it run because it was a natural decline. Like I’m confused as to when people expected Nintendo to push out a successor.

Probably the same combination that we have seen for years now with Switch
  • New games in core series
  • Some remasters
  • A couple of new ip sprinkled here & there
  • Maybe bringing back an older ip
 
Nintendo will post a 3 minute long Switch 2 reveal video 6 hours before this direct. The Nintendo Direct will contain all game footage from the new console that releases alongside TOTK.


In the VERY UNLIKELY event that the above doesn't happen... well it's still possible an early Switch 2 release happens H1 this here... I think a key indicator will be what's in this show. If they do a full on TOTK blow out I think it makes it less likely. If this show is lame and doesn't have much hype then that makes it more likely. but...What do they have for 40 minutes of content though? Gotta quite a few new reveals?
If TOTK really is 70$...

Maybe you're not so far from the truth, unless they intend to increase the price without a generational leap.
 
I imagine Microsoft exclusives being generally a lower quality than Sony and Nintendo exclusives helps with the whole going down quickly thing
I'm going to have to contest this, Forza Horizon 5, Microsoft Flight Simulator, Halo Infinite (at least, the campaign), Hi-Fi Rush, these are genuinely great games.

They're different, for sure, but great games.
 
crime against humanity? 💀
I'm going to rain on some parades here, but Breath of the Wild and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate both launched at 70 EUROS, which is a stronger currency than the US Dollar. This could just be them normalising global pricing. As far as I've seen, game prices in Japan are a little more flexible, and less pegged to a specific number like 6,000¥.

That said, I don't think this is due to inflation. The real rate of inflation is hard to pin down, Japan ISN'T experiencing high inflation, and generally luxury goods like games have no reason to match inflation of the cost of living when they're going to be the first thing to be cut from the budget when prices rise. There's a reason game prices have been stagnant for so long, they can barely afford not to in this economic climate. They can't come down due to inflation, they can't go up due to economic woes from inflation.
 
Zelda will get it's own Direct but if the Uncles aint talking and there's nothing tomorrow a hypothetical May launch is on it's very last legs. we might get some idea whether 2023 is still possible but perhaps not if it's exclusively about the first half of 2023.
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I really want to believe that there's new hardware on the horizon, I absolutely do. I could be completely off-course, but I can't really imagine what else could be coming this year for the Switch beyond Zelda and Pikmin 4. Even Metroid Prime feels like it'd be better off ported to the Switch's successor at this point.
 
I'm going to have to contest this, Forza Horizon 5, Microsoft Flight Simulator, Halo Infinite (at least, the campaign), Hi-Fi Rush, these are genuinely great games.

They're different, for sure, but great games.
Honestly wasn't to impressed with Infinites campaign, but the other ms I agree with. Flight Sim is very niche though.
 
I'm going to have to contest this, Forza Horizon 5, Microsoft Flight Simulator, Halo Infinite (at least, the campaign), Hi-Fi Rush, these are genuinely great games.

They're different, for sure, but great games.

They're great, I have a particular fondness of the Forza Horizon series. But they are so few and far between in a contest of exclusivity against Nintendo and Sony that it's a little depressing when you think of Microsoft's output, with all the IP's they own and have bought out and see how little they've actually done. Even PS5 has far more exclusives in its first years than Microsoft has managed to come out with in the same amount of time.

I had Xbox, the OG, and never owned a GameCube or PS2 (I had a lot of envy for those console owners though growing up, so many games I did wish to play.) I remember when OG Xbox had a tonne of franchises exclusive to Xbox that, for the most part, were dead and buried come the 360 era. They were far more experimental and all in back then than they are now even with the sheer amount of IP they are buying up like the Disney of gaming.

These days, most people just see them as Forza, Gears and Halo with Halo mired in controversy and being driven into the ground unfortunately due to it being consistently mishandled. Even though sometimes they throw out a Pentiment or a Hi-Fi Rush to praise, it is few and far-between. I own all consoles but I cannot remember a gen that I personally felt Xbox to not be third place in (Wii U gen comes to mind where I put Nintendo in third place for once) in comparison to what their competitors were releasing. Even PS3 gen, I look and whilst people may praise 360 for the exclusives back then, I find it pales in comparison to Sony and Nintendo. The Last of Us, Uncharted and Metal Gear Solid IV alone to me ran circles around their output, those were just the obvious picks, they were just so above and beyond and cinematic in ways that you could see exactly where the future of single player experiences were heading and what could be accomplished. The WII gameplay wise was just innovative back then and a fun time, packed with iterative experiences and a list of exclusives that were far more memorable to me, even Metroid Prime 3 to me is a better game than Halo 3 and Reach which would be a controversial opinion but I love Metroid and Prime, it engaged me far more and has stuck in my memory.

It's not console warring or anything, I'm basing it off personal experience. I look fondly on the OG Xbox era, I guess just off of childhood, but also they had a far more diverse list of games than even now, they had nothing to lose really as a newcomer so they gave it their all and the results were more memorable than what I saw from their output later in life. And even from that era, I would still place them third because I knew exactly what PS2 and GameCube had on them and I would go back and love the heck out of those games later on. I got PS3 and Wii after and haven't looked back despite playing Xbox as well, ultimately it's never grasped me and seeing the state of Series X just sort of saddens me. Starfield is the only thing I'm excited about at this stage.

I have a lot to look forward to from Nintendo and Sony, when it comes to strictly games, not hardware, they haven't failed me yet, there's a lot of games with variety and they're consistent every year, there's always something that grabs my attention and makes me go "this is my game of the year." I haven't felt that way with Xbox really for a long time and even with games like Hi-Fi-Rush, I know it won't be my top game to release this year and by year's end I know it won't even be in my Top 3, not even Forza Horizon 5 was and I enjoyed my time with it.

Dunno, I have my tastes, Sony and Nintendo align with them more often than not and are pretty consistent with pleasing me.
 
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They're great, I have a particular fondness of the Forza Horizon series. But they are so few and far between in a contest of exclusivity against Nintendo and Sony that it's a little depressing when you think of Microsoft's output, with all the IP's they own and have bought out and see how little they've actually done. Even PS5 has far more exclusives in its first years than Microsoft has managed to come out with in the same amount of time.

I had Xbox, the OG, and never owned a GameCube or PS2 (I had a lot of envy for those console owners though growing up, so many games I did wish to play.) I remember when OG Xbox had a tonne of franchises exclusive to Xbox that, for the most part, were dead and buried come the 360 era. They were far more experimental and all in back then than they are now even with the sheer amount of IP they are buying up like the Disney of gaming.

These days, most people just see them as Forza, Gears and Halo with Halo mired in controversy and being driven into the ground unfortunately due to it being consistently mishandled. Even though sometimes they throw out a Pentiment or a Hi-Fi Rush to praise, it is few and far-between. I own all consoles but I cannot remember a gen that I personally felt Xbox to not be third place in (Wii U gen comes to mind where I put Nintendo in third place for once) in comparison to what their competitors were releasing. Even PS3 gen, I look and whilst people may praise 360 for the exclusives back then, I find it pales in comparison to Sony and Nintendo. The Last of Us, Uncharted and Metal Gear Solid IV alone to me ran circles around their output, those were just the obvious picks, they were just so above and beyond and cinematic in ways that you could see exactly where the future of single player experiences were heading and what could be accomplished. The WII gameplay wise was just innovative back then and a fun time, packed with iterative experiences and a list of exclusives that were far more memorable to me, even Metroid Prime 3 to me is a better game than Halo 3 and Reach which would be a controversial opinion but I love Metroid and Prime, it engaged me far more and has stuck in my memory.

It's not console warring or anything, I'm basing it off personal experience. I look fondly on the OG Xbox era, I guess just off of childhood, but also they had a far more diverse list of games than even now, they had nothing to lose really as a newcomer so they gave it their all and the results were more memorable than what I saw from their output later in life. And even from that era, I would still place them third because I knew exactly what PS2 and GameCube had on them and I would go back and love the heck out of those games later on. I got PS3 and Wii after and haven't looked back despite playing Xbox as well, ultimately it's never grasped me and seeing the state of Series X just sort of saddens me. Starfield is the only thing I'm excited about at this stage.

I have a lot to look forward to from Nintendo and Sony, when it comes to strictly games, not hardware, they haven't failed me yet, there's a lot of games with variety and they're consistent every year, there's always something that grabs my attention and makes me go "this is my game of the year." I haven't felt that way with Xbox really for a long time and even with games like Hi-Fi-Rush, I know it won't be my top game to release this year and by year's end I know it won't even be in my Top 3, not even Forza Horizon 5 was and I enjoyed my time with it.

Dunno, I have my tastes, Sony and Nintendo align with them more often than not and are pretty consistent with pleasing me.
with the OG XBox development times where still short enough, that going around and getting studios on board worked rather well.
During the XBOne days they made some bad decisions, had studios implode, and since game dev now takes half a decade and more, the games from the new aquisitions are simply not ready yet. Its a handfull of badly managed years and bad luck that lead them to where they are now.

+ them letting Nintendo have some (Ori, Cuphead, outer worlds, hellblade) and generally all of their games being Console + PC from the start removes the feeling of "exclusivity" from many games they have.
Minecraft is theirs, but gets pushed everywhere. Psychonauts also released everywhere, even if Double Fien is a Microsoft studio, but the game was already anounced for all Platforms before the buy out.
Hi-Fi Rush seems like a great game, and is also exclusive. They actually have a ton of "non sequel" games going through that list, Pentiment, Grounded, Avowed, Everwild, As Dusk Falls, Hi-Fi Rush, Sea of Thieves, Tell ne Why, Bleeding Edge, Ara: History Untold.

Many of their games are not fit for "character based marketing" like many nintendo ips (you wont find plushies of their characters...except master chief). Sony is going the "cinematic" route.

Microsoft reminds me... of a big budget variant of general PC gaming from the 90ties and early 00s.
It has its audience, but a big part of that audience... is on pc, where they also release.

Personally that type of game never really interested me. I was not a big activision/blizard fan (over the years they threw out most of the interesting ips in my opinion and got worse), and also not a big bethesta fan (no interest in Fallout/Elders scrolls, only somewhat interested in doom...), Halo always felt like the most generic space marine scifi series. Never understood the appeal.

But then there are games i would like to check out:
Pentiment
hellblade 2
everwild (could be interesting)
hi-fi rush
grounded
psychonauts 2

but if i want to check them out, then i would buy an entry level gaming pc.
I have to many games i never played (thx Epic game store... im lazy with checking it out, but even with semi regular getting the games i have 100 games, and probably 50 in steam)

------------------------ Off Topic ---------------
Actually... all this reminded me, i really should maybe buy a gaming pc...
Batman Arcam Series, Bioshock Remastered, Control, Death Stranding, Dishonored, Kerbal space program, metro (both), tomb raider trilogy, sable, saints row 4, redout, shenmue 3, superhot, vampyr, watch dogs, Prey, steeep, soma, wolfenstein the new order, yoka laylee the impossible lair... all just waiting to be played.
Why should i buy an X-Box then.

this Also reminds me, i tried playing Doom 2016 (and Metro Redux) on the switch...
i really really cant. Metro was just to slow in parts for that small screen, maybe it works better with mouse controlls. (still a great port)
Doom... i wished so much for a wider FoV. Its to narrow. Thats my only gripe. I will finish this game, butony when i get a pc, to change the FoV. I really hope that Metroid Prime has not the same problem for me.....
 
R&D has gone up every year since a dip in FY17 when the Switch launched, but the first notable jump was in the FY ended March 2020. They most likely did planning in 2019 and kickoff in 2020. 2018 is not in the picture except for revisions and/or the general R&D into hardware that Nintendo does every single year, which isn't related to the issue of planning before or during the pandemic for the currently upcoming hardware.


They're not "voting" with anything, since Nintendo's hardware plans are completely independent of their share price and not capable of changing fast enough even if they wanted to try to respond to it (which they don't). Investors are just doing what they always do, which is apparently imagining unrealistic scenarios, acting surprised when Nintendo does what they always do, and then selling stock because they think it's the best way for them to make money at that moment.

And the analysts and "industry" have been saying they expect new hardware in H2 2024 for some time now, so it's not like anything even changed on that front.
What changed was that they thought H2 2024 was still safe and that sales would maintain, a rare showing of faith in Nintendo's ability to keep their sales up until then. Those hopes were apparently dashed and there's an (over)reaction to that. Didn't say it was reasonable, but certainly not a surprise. It's literally "you screwed up, and while I can't change anything, I don't want my money in your business when the screw-up happens". It has no immediate impact on what Nintendo's doing, but it does impact the investor who foresees less profitability in the future and are pulling before what they expect to happen becomes reality, with the short-term effect of Nintendo's valuation sliding.



Anyways, as promised, here's a look at R&D spending as far back as I'm willing to go:

Fiscal YearQuarterR&D Spending (¥)Change YoYChange vs 2019 figure
Apr2017-Mar2018Q1-Q464.0 billion+8.1%---
Apr2018-Mar2019Q116.8 billion+5.7%---
Apr2018-Mar2019Q217.9 billion+10.5%---
Apr2018-Mar2019Q316.1 billion+8.1%---
Apr2018-Mar2019Q418.9 billion+16.7%---
Apr2018-Mar2019Q1-Q469.6 billion+8.8%---
Apr2019-Mar2020Q117.7 billion+5.4%+5.4%
Apr2019-Mar2020Q218.5 billion+3.4%+3.4%
Apr2019-Mar2020Q318.1 billion+12.4%+12.4%
Apr2019-Mar2020Q429.8 billion+57.7%+57.7%
Apr2019-Mar2020Q1-Q484.1 billion+20.8%+31.4%
Apr2020-Mar2021Q119.8 billion+11.9%+17.9%
Apr2020-Mar2021Q222.3 billion+20.5%+24.6%
Apr2020-Mar2021Q328 billion+54.7%+73.9%
Apr2020-Mar2021Q423.1 billion-22.5%+22.2%
Apr2020-Mar2021Q1-Q493.2 billion+10.8%+45.6%
Apr2021-Mar2022Q120.3 billion+2.5%+20.8%
Apr2021-Mar2022Q223.8 billion+6.7%+33.0%
Apr2021-Mar2022Q324.8 billion-11.4%+54.0%
Apr2021-Mar2022Q423.8 billion+3.0%+25.9%
Apr2021-Mar2022Q1-Q4102.1 billion+9.6%+59.5%
Apr2022-Mar2023Q123.7 billion+16.8%+41.1%
Apr2022-Mar2023Q227.6 billion+16.0%+54.2%
Apr2022-Mar2023Q327 billion+8.87%+67.7%

A couple of things can be determined from these numbers:
  • R&D took a huge rise in 2020, particularly in Jan-Mar 2020 and again in Oct-Dec2020
    • Jumps this severe are pretty well always related to new hardware; both could be attributed to Drake or one could be related to OLED (though with the hardware similarities of the OLED being what they are, it seems more likely both are attributable to Drake in some fashion)
    • Orin was not officially sampled until 2021, so it seems likely that Nintendo requested a custom chip prior to any sampling
  • While work proceeded on the custom chip design, there was another (albeit lighter) spike in R&D in Oct-Dec 2021
    • This happened 3 months before we saw T239 appear in Linux commits and immediately following the reporting around 4K dev kits
  • R&D remained at a steady increase through most of FY03/2022 but did not see the huge peaks of the prior 2 fiscal years
    • This is likely waiting for T239 to be finalized to finish the hardware design and ramping up software production
  • We see another persistent increase in R&D to 27 billion in each of the past 2 quarters (Jul-Dec 2022), the largest single quarter R&D expenditures since the 2 peaks in 2020
    • This is likely a combination of a weaker yen and a last push to finalize hardware (and software) for the new hardware device
When looking back at when R&D spending fell prior to the launch of the Switch, we saw increased spending up until Apr-Jun 2016, when it began levelling off, leading up to a small but noticeable decrease in Oct-Dec2016 and a 10 billion yen drop in Jan-Mar2017.

With this information, we can start lining it up with some of the key information/dates we already have and compare it against how things went in the Switch timeline (kinda started the ball rolling there).
But ultimately, if we were going to see a May launch, I would have expected R&D to begin its descent out of the stratosphere before taking a big dive in the quarter of its release in May. There is possible explanations for why that's not the case, but it doesn't look favourable for a May launch. 2023 is still very much a possibility and the spending seems favourable to that still being an option, but I'm sure there's some more that can be teased out of this data that I'm too exhausted to do right now. LOL
 
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Nintendo will post a 3 minute long Switch 2 reveal video 6 hours before this direct. The Nintendo Direct will contain all game footage from the new console that releases alongside TOTK.


In the VERY UNLIKELY event that the above doesn't happen... well it's still possible an early Switch 2 release happens H1 this here... I think a key indicator will be what's in this show. If they do a full on TOTK blow out I think it makes it less likely. If this show is lame and doesn't have much hype then that makes it more likely. but...What do they have for 40 minutes of content though? Gotta quite a few new reveals?
I love this idea by the way.
 
Did I miss the part where I entered an alternate universe where the French took over the world and now suddenly everything is french and the Nintendo Croissant is the dominant player in the console world?

Stranger things have happened to be honest.
 
selling a switch game for $70 is a crime against humanity...there's not justifiable reason for why tears of a kingdom should suddenly be $70 unless it's a switch 2 game with massive differences in graphics and performance.
That pay increase gotta come from somewhere
Obviously its going to be passed down to consumers
 
0
The investor Q&A is up. I'm going to say there's no need to wait for the official translation on this one, because it's probably the most boring and uninsightful Q&A of the Switch era. Every question and answer is the same. Q: "What are you going to do in the seventh year?" A: "We plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch and release new software titles and strengthen the sales of existing titles." Rinse and repeat.

So PSA for the billionth time: Nintendo does not announce or hint at their plans in response to investor questions. Even when they've just posted declining sales and the investors are all incredulously asking what their plans are to turn the business around, they just give the same stock answer. You could copy-paste this Q&A from any previous time when Furukawa was asked about plans to maintain momentum in an upcoming year.

The one insight in the whole thing was already posted earlier, which is that supply conditions had improved by the end of the year, but sell-through didn't meet expectations.

A couple of things can be determined from these numbers:
  • R&D took a huge rise in 2020, particularly in Jan-Mar 2020 and again in Oct-Dec2020
    • Jumps this severe are pretty well always related to new hardware; both could be attributed to Drake or one could be related to OLED (though with the hardware similarities of the OLED being what they are, it seems more likely both are attributable to Drake in some fashion)
    • Orin was not officially sampled until 2021, so it seems likely that Nintendo requested a custom chip prior to any sampling
  • While work proceeded on the custom chip design, there was another spike in R&D in Oct-Dec 2021
    • This happened 3 months before we saw T239 appear in Linux commits and immediately following the reporting around 4K dev kits
  • R&D remained at a steady increase through most of FY03/2022 but did not see the huge peaks of the prior 2 fiscal years
    • This is likely waiting for T239 to be finalized to finish the hardware design and ramping up software production
  • We see another persistent increase in R&D to 27 billion in each of the past 2 quarters (Jul-Dec 2022), the largest single quarter R&D expenditures since the 2 peaks in 2020
    • This is likely a combination of a weaker yen and a last push to finalize hardware (and software) for the new hardware device
When looking back at when R&D spending fell prior to the launch of the Switch, we saw increased spending up until Apr-Jun 2016, when it began levelling off, leading up to a small but noticeable decrease in Oct-Dec2016 and a 10 billion yen drop in Jan-Mar2017.

With this information, we can start lining it up with some of the key information/dates we already have and compare it against how things went in the Switch timeline (kinda started the ball rolling there).
But ultimately, if we were going to see a May launch, I would have expected R&D to begin its descent out of the stratosphere before taking a big dive in the quarter of its release in May. There is possible explanations for why that's not the case, but it doesn't look favourable for a May launch. 2023 is still very much a possibility and the spending seems favourable to that still being an option, but I'm sure there's some more that can be teased out of this data that I'm too exhausted to do right now. LOL
These are mostly the same conclusions I've had from watching the R&D spending, and the 2020 ramp-up fits perfectly with Nvidia's apparent development timeline. I don't know if it's so meaningful on a granular level for us to expect the 2017 Switch trend to be followed exactly, but I do think a dip would occur ahead of release, so I'll be very interested to see the FY24 forecast when it's published in May. If it goes down, then not only is that a good sign of hardware on the horizon, it also definitively kills the idea that Nintendo cancelled any hardware and is scrambling to work on something new (which, well, all the *gestures at everything* should have already proven).
 
These are mostly the same conclusions I've had from watching the R&D spending, and the 2020 ramp-up fits perfectly with Nvidia's apparent development timeline. I don't know if it's so meaningful on a granular level for us to expect the 2017 Switch trend to be followed exactly, but I do think a dip would occur ahead of release, so I'll be very interested to see the FY24 forecast when it's published in May. If it goes down, then not only is that a good sign of hardware on the horizon, it also definitively kills the idea that Nintendo cancelled any hardware and is scrambling to work on something new (which, well, all the *gestures at everything* should have already proven).
wait, if it goes down in may? wouldn't it go up if hardware was on the horizon?
 
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