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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
NateDrake said:
I said Summer 2022 is when I started to hear it was being cancelled. The only talk in early 2022 was from MVG and he had heard at GDC from developers that they had devkits for new Nintendo hardware.
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Perhaps what you and MVG were hearing about two different things? You heard about Pro console whose dev kits were around at some point in 2020-2021, MVG heard about a successor whose dev kits started going out in early 2022. GDC 2022 coinciding with some kind of changeover where the device you heard about is officially canned, and devs are transitioned/transitioning to the new "Drake" hardware?

Feels like that would make more sense from a chip perspective, and a device that is still able to release in 2024 or whatever, vs a device that was around for a while, is now postponed for a long time, but is still going to arrive in a year or so. Hard to imagine that devs would have games ready for that timeframe if they currently have no dev kits.
 
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Raccoon said:
000.gif


spring 2024 would be too early, get ready for 2025
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Don't stop there Raccoon

It could be 2035
 
maybe a source would be more willing to divulge about devkits for a switch pro than the ones currently out for switch 2

or maybe they've all learned their lesson
 
Someone mentioned Nintendo being hot on the latest devkits not leaking so maybe devs are NDA’d up the ass right now so no one wants to mention anything.
 
I’m really hung up on how Nintendo communicated their plans to developers when they sent out devkits. Was it like “Hey, here’s a hardware profile we’re playing around with. We’re thinking late 2022/early 2023 but no promises. Feel free to test your games on it but spend money/development time at your own peril”? Or was it like “Here’s our hardware roadmap, get your games ready for 4K in 2023”?

Anyway, let’s entertain that Drake is getting a node shrink or something that would lead to a delay. Would the timing of when PCIe lane testing was done and most recent Linux commits conflict with a potential node shrink? Or would those things not happen until the node was final and going into production? Because in that case, the only possible explanation would be that it’s not coming out in a Nintendo console, but for some unknown device, right?
 
People saying that Drake will be outdated by 2024/2025 so therefore it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to release it then seem to be forgetting that Nintendo don't give a fuck about having equivalent graphical power to the competition. From what I understand, Drake in a Switch 2 in 2024/2025 would still be a bigger generational leap than Nintendo's had since the Gamecube.
 
Disorientator said:
Are the references to T239 in this LINUX commit (from Oct 27th, 2022) old news?

Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Click to expand...

Great find! Surprised I missed it - I have some searches set up for these terms, and I've searched the kernel archives. Mind telling me how you found this one?

Serif said:
Those look like DisplayPort transmission modes (normally expressed as Gbit/s per lane, where 1620 -> 1.62 Gbit/s per lane, 2700 -> 2.70 Gbit/s per lane and so on). The Switch OLED dock uses a Realtek chip that converts DisplayPort 1.4 to HDMI 2.0.
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Ah, excellent!


LiC said:
DVFS (dynamic voltage/frequency scaling) information is potentially very interesting, but this just looks like an API and data structures, no actual data.

It does confirm 4 PCIe controllers = 8 lanes for T239 compared to T234's 11 controllers = 22 lanes, something @oldpuck had both observed previously. It also appears to have 1 endpoint (EP) controller compared to T234's 4, but I'm not really sure what that is.
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Endpoint controllers are what bridge your internal lanes to the leaves of the device tree, but I don't know enough to know when you can get away with not having them. This might require some research.
 
Dmax3901 said:
People saying that Drake will be outdated by 2024/2025 so therefore it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to release it then seem to be forgetting that Nintendo don't give a fuck about having equivalent graphical power to the competition. From what I understand, Drake in a Switch 2 in 2024/2025 would still be a bigger generational leap than Nintendo's had since the Gamecube.
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I mean, it'd be the same leap in 2037. It's just a matter of what external games it can get.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
If sources had devkits in 2021 and 2022, do they have nothing today? If they have nothing today, how could we possibly expect Nintendo to launch new hardware this year, or even next?

If they do have devkits, how come there is no information about this? Again, we are talking about the same sources that had devkits nearly 2 years ago.
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This is one of my conundrums.

If sources don't have devkits today, I would have expected more chatter about kits being recalled for a cancelled device from disgruntled devs. Especially devs who were working on possible Switch 2 exclusives, so they would be left with no Nintendo hardware to work on.

If they do have devkits today, it is possible they are bound by strong NDAs which would explain the lack of information, with stronger threats by Nintendo re: dev partnerships. They would be even more careful not to utter a word.

Devs are held to NDAs either way, but I would have expected more reporting for the former scenario considering how sucky it is. Where are the contacts talking to Mochizuki? Or Jason Schrier? Or Imran Khan?

I feel like that would have been a juicy story in the making. The other scenario - that developers are tight-lipped about upgraded devkits for a Switch successor instead of a Switch Pro but it's still a 4K DLSS Switch - feels almost redundant to report.
 
oldpuck said:
If Nintendo cancelled a bunch of projects that were intended to launch around now, and would run on more powerful hardware, then what is Drake going to launch with? If devkits started to get pulled in March of last year that gives Nintendo 18 months to find replacements for those projects. If those devs had received updated devkits, they wouldn't be leaking about cancellations. So if Nintendo plans on a launch this year, they must have reached out to different studios to deliver the first year's library on a pretty truncated schedule, and have managed to keep every single one of those studios quiet.
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What devkits? T239 devkits can't have existed before March.
 
NateDrake said:
None of us said 2025, though. John went early with Spring 2024 and I said by late 2024.
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I think one thing is sure, all three of you discard this next FY2023-24. This is probably based on marketing info. I know some journalists/insiders once early the year gets some details of nintendo’s plans (at least first party software) for next fiscal year.

By logic, it should be FY2024-25. When exactly? Nobody of you really knows and will likely have a better certainty later this year.
 
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Klax0nKlax0ff said:
I wish Nate, MVG, and John would have elaborated a bit more regarding pulled devkits. They state it’s not that unusual, it happens, etc. When has it happened in recent history and with what hardware? Also, some clarity on how far along third party development was at the time devkits were pulled would be nice. Maybe it happens but one would think that third parties would be annoyed enough to talk more if they spent significant time and expense preparing games for a release window that was cancelled with no follow up plan.
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I also found this the elephant in the room of the whole discussion.
At least in Nate's case, he has been reporting that these devkits were in the hands of developers since 2020 and at least one was developing an exclusive. No way a cancellation in summer 2022 would have been "business as usual" as they tried to sell it. There is a certain degree of unplausibility if we take all these claims at face value, or at least we have to assume their sources are super vague or second-hand.

That being said, John clarifying that the cancelled device he heard about is the same "Switch Pro" that was discussed since 2021 does make their claims more consistent than we thought, unless there was some piggybacking involved.

There is still the problem of how to reconcile this with the hard truth of Drake being alive and kicking up to few months ago, and I wish they tried to discuss it more as well. But this also hints to their sources not being able to give any details of this kind.

All in all, it's super worrying to think that Nintendo had to cancel an hardware that was being worked on at least for a couple of years - I really hope it's either not true or it happened for a very good reason, which right now I can't fathom.
 
lexony said:
You all have no clue. Clearly it‘s 20XX.
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Nintendo completed Drake but sealed it away for 30+ years of diagnostic testing, believing the world not ready yet for a Nintendo device with tensor cores and free will.
 
Gang, I have to come clean about something. This is my fault.

Or, well, actually it's my sister's fault. A few days before Christmas she spilled coffee on her Switch (my 2016 built original). She almost didn't replace it with an OLED model when new hardware was right around the corner, but I was the one who encouraged her to go for it. Literally a week later, Nate announced Drake is dead.

The world righted itself for my sister, and I apologize on her behalf.
 
Last edited:
LinkURL said:
Yes I can lol.
My friends and I all LOVE Mario Kart, and even everyone has a copy of the game, but we all bought the Switch either because of Zelda, or Mario, or Pokemon, or the full suite of Nintendo games.
If you do the math, the best-selling game among us is Mario Kart, and in a way it did influence the acquisition of a Switch (and other Nintendo consoles), but the main reason for none of us was Mario Kart.
I know this is not a very scientific parameter, but the same MK8 which is the Switch's best selling game, was originally released on the Wii U which is just the most failed console in Nintendo's history.
Mario Kart in my opinion is the game that everyone who owns a Nintendo console buys, but it is not the main motivator for most of these people
Click to expand...
This is basically what I've been trying to say all this time. Perhaps its just in my circle but I personally don't think mario kart is something that would be looked upon as a game that you absolutely must play and buy the system itself for.
 
Disorientator said:
Interesting. Had no idea DP to HDMI conversion was needed (y)



Thanks for the write-up.

Wonder how much of this will end up in the final product, it it's indeed T239-based of course.
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video out over usb-c is almost always (so...always effectively) just "alternate mode", or the Display port protocoll over those specific lines that are designated for it. Since HDMI is a different protocol, you need a conversion. (i had to learn this the hard way when i tried to connect to a monitor, and it only supported HDR with HDMI, and while Display port does also support HDMI for 1.4, the monitor had only 1.2 as display port. And active converters from 1.4 to 2.0b (for HDR) where 40-50€ back then... (so never used HDR).
Vash_the_Stampede said:
You’re not rude, but you’re missing my point.

I’m not sure how to clarify. I will try asking a question:

If sources had devkits in 2021 and 2022, do they have nothing today? If they have nothing today, how could we possibly expect Nintendo to launch new hardware this year, or even next?

If they do have devkits, how come there is no information about this? Again, we are talking about the same sources that had devkits nearly 2 years ago.
Click to expand...
so... hyped for the new Trigun show, or indifferent?
 
Dmax3901 said:
People saying that Drake will be outdated by 2024/2025 so therefore it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to release it then seem to be forgetting that Nintendo don't give a fuck about having equivalent graphical power to the competition. From what I understand, Drake in a Switch 2 in 2024/2025 would still be a bigger generational leap than Nintendo's had since the Gamecube.
Click to expand...
The size of the leap relative to Switch is the same no matter when it comes out. How powerful it is relative to the PS5 and Series X will also stay the same.

The question is how outdated is it relative to the industry. PC games will move on, and even as the 9th gen consoles remain stagnant, at some point, the gap between what those machines can do and what developers want to do will start to grow past just "visual" differences to "core gameplay".

Right now the industry is moving really slow. This year and next year are going to be the years of acceleration, as cross gen games start to die off, and RDNA 3 and Ada become more widely available in the PC space. But I think this gen is going to go on for a long time, and if Drake manages to get to the point of "lots of miracle ports are possible", then Drake can ride that wave for as long as PS5/Xbox Series can. A Drake which falls slightly short will date more quickly.

Knowing exactly on which side of the line Drake manages to fall will be unguessable till it's in the wild, as lots of little decisions add up. If games start heavily leveraging SSD speeds, and massive CPUs, Drake might age fast. If games tend to stay GPU bound, then Drake's CPU and storage speeds will be less of an issue and allow Drake to receive (cut down) ports for as long as the Series S remains viable. It's hard to tell
 
Pokemaniac said:
You're free to speculate, but saying that Nintendo's schedule is looking empty for the year in January before any Direct has happened is going to look silly.
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As of this moment, it’s looking empty. That may change in two weeks, but we don’t know with certainty that it will. I don’t understand how this is silly tbh – I even added some games to the schedule that are not even remotely confirmed.
 
oldpuck said:
Nintendo cancelled Drake entirely, Nvidia has continued to develop it.
  • The timing here makes this seem unlikely
  • Nvidia has no other imaginable customer for Drake that doesn't have their needs met by Orin
  • Nvidia has done this before - when Atlan got canned, they didn't manufacture a couple of Atlan's just for funsies
  • Unless things went real bad and Nvidia is about to launch a Switch competitor: see the Nintendo Playstation debacle
Click to expand...
What would stop someone like MS to use drake for a new device like a Surface that can be used for gaming? The biggest issue with MS's ARM efforts is gaming performance with the Qualcomm GPU. MS has worked with NVidia using Tegras for multiple devices like the Zune HD and Surface 1 and 2.
 
Could see the next Switch being March 2024, coming at the same time as the last big ToTK DLC along with a next Switch patch (perhaps even a repackaged retail version with Switch Next branding and all DLC?) along with something like a Luigi’s Mansion 4 and some third party ports
 
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neon said:
This is basically what I've been trying to say all this time. Perhaps its just in my circle but I personally don't think mario kart is something that would be looked upon as a game that you absolutely must play and buy the system itself for.
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And you can personally believe that but that's just not supported by what's going on. Once again I ask, what games have sold Mario Kart numbers that aren't considered system sellers? What does Mario kart have to do to be considered one, not by your own (super small) circle but by the definition of selling consoles? If it's only just because of anecdotald then we've hit a wall with this discussion as nothing anyone can say will convince you and nothing you can present will actually add up to what you're saying you believe.
 
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Vash_the_Stampede said:
You’re not rude, but you’re missing my point.

I’m not sure how to clarify. I will try asking a question:

If sources had devkits in 2021 and 2022, do they have nothing today? If they have nothing today, how could we possibly expect Nintendo to launch new hardware this year, or even next?

If they do have devkits, how come there is no information about this? Again, we are talking about the same sources that had devkits nearly 2 years ago.
Click to expand...

Understood. Both of the bolded were things I'd been thinking on and hadn't yet asked.

Bloomberg would obviously have different sources from Nate (I assume) - are they reporting the same things? It feels like something as big as this should come to light from more than just Nate's podcast and a passing comment by Digital Foundry.

Aether said:
so... hyped for the new Trigun show, or indifferent?
Click to expand...

I know I am. I love the animation.
 
Cackletta5 said:
As of this moment, it’s looking empty. That may change in two weeks, but we don’t know with certainty that it will. I don’t understand how this is silly tbh – I even added some games to the schedule that are not even remotely confirmed.
Click to expand...
Looking empty compared to what, though? At this point we know the release dates of a game in Jan, Feb, March and May, and know of other TBA games. This time last year we knew of PLA releasing in Jan, Kirby in March, and Advance Wars in April. Go back to 2021 and all we knew about was super Mario 3D World and I think New Pokémon Snap?
 
oldpuck said:
The size of the leap relative to Switch is the same no matter when it comes out. How powerful it is relative to the PS5 and Series X will also stay the same.

The question is how outdated is it relative to the industry. PC games will move on, and even as the 9th gen consoles remain stagnant, at some point, the gap between what those machines can do and what developers want to do will start to grow past just "visual" differences to "core gameplay".

Right now the industry is moving really slow. This year and next year are going to be the years of acceleration, as cross gen games start to die off, and RDNA 3 and Ada become more widely available in the PC space. But I think this gen is going to go on for a long time, and if Drake manages to get to the point of "lots of miracle ports are possible", then Drake can ride that wave for as long as PS5/Xbox Series can. A Drake which falls slightly short will date more quickly.

Knowing exactly on which side of the line Drake manages to fall will be unguessable till it's in the wild, as lots of little decisions add up. If games start heavily leveraging SSD speeds, and massive CPUs, Drake might age fast. If games tend to stay GPU bound, then Drake's CPU and storage speeds will be less of an issue and allow Drake to receive (cut down) ports for as long as the Series S remains viable. It's hard to tell
Click to expand...
Good points!
 
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Smash Kirby said:
What would stop someone like MS to use drake for a new device like a Surface that can be used for gaming? The biggest issue with MS's ARM efforts is gaming performance with the Qualcomm GPU. MS has worked with NVidia using Tegras for multiple devices like the Zune HD and Surface 1 and 2.
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Feel like they would literally just make their own version of Razer Edge Cloud, which is pretty much a tablet/phone with an attachable controller.

I would love to see Sony and Microsoft try something like that or the steam deck tho. Not necessarily and dedicated handheld but a companion device to their ecosystems.
 
Trevelyan said:
Looking empty compared to what, though? At this point we know the release dates of a game in Jan, Feb, March and May, and know of other TBA games. This time last year we knew of PLA releasing in Jan, Kirby in March, and Advance Wars in April. Go back to 2021 and all we knew about was super Mario 3D World and I think New Pokémon Snap?
Click to expand...
Yeah the emptiness thing comes up pretty much every year. But I guess Botw2 causes some anxiety as it has a definite date now instead of 'surely this is the year'
 
Smash Kirby said:
What would stop someone like MS to use drake for a new device like a Surface that can be used for gaming? The biggest issue with MS's ARM efforts is gaming performance with the Qualcomm GPU. MS has worked with NVidia using Tegras for multiple devices like the Zune HD and Surface 1 and 2.
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Guessing there might be an exclusivity agreement between Nvidia and Nintendo where the T239 SoC can't be used in a competing device, only in Nvidia products or non-competitive tech like cars.

I also can't imagine this happening.
 
kvetcha said:
If nothing is planned until '24-'25, Nintendo's empty-looking 2023 is even more confusing.
Click to expand...


Just remember the direct and investors meetings have not happened yet. Once we get more info from those two events, then we will know what 2023 looks software and possibly hardware wise
 
I've finished doing a long, rough summary of today's episode of Nate the Hate, which can be accessed down below.
Dakhil said:

  • In 2021, Nate the Hate reported there were rumblings within the development history of Nintendo distributing devkits for new hardware with 4K support achieved with DLSS
  • Bloomberg later reported hearing the same, with some of Bloomberg's reports being corroborated by Nikkei
  • In mid 2021, Bloomberg reported the release of new hardware was imminent, which turned out to be a false trail, with the OLED model being released
  • But in autumn 2021, Bloomberg doubled on reports on there exists devkits for new hardware with 4K support, citing 12 developer contacts having access to it, with a release timeline of late 2022
  • A month later, NateDrake independently corroborated Bloomberg's report in autumn 2021, but with a slightly different release time of late 2022 - early 2023
  • In 2022, there's an illegal leak of Nvidia files, which has mention of NVN2, the successor to NVN
  • MVG has heard some developers at GDC 2022 mention working with updated Nintendo Switch devkits, which MVG kind of assumed to be devkits for next-gen hardware (MVG mentioned developers never mentioned "Nintendo Switch Pro")
  • NateDrake has heard his developer contacts mention having new devkits for a new Nintendo Switch, which is more powerful and has more features, and mentioned the new hardware seems more like a revision than a successor, but that depends on how Nintendo wants to brand it
  • John Linneman thinks everyone used the "Nintendo Switch Pro" moniker too liberally since "Nintendo Switch Pro" was easy to say, although whether the new hardware was positioned as a mid-gen refresh or a successor was unknown
  • NateDrake thinks Sony and Microsoft could have the PlayStation 4 Pro and the Xbox One X as successor if Sony and Microsoft wanted to since there were enough meaningful upgrades in terms of performance uplifts and features (e.g. 4K support)
  • John Linneman mentioned the PlayStation 4 Pro and the Xbox One X released 3 years after the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One
  • MVG always felt the "Nintendo Switch Pro" is a mid-gen refresh still using the Tegra X1, but with increases in the memory bandwidth, memory size, and the CPU and GPU frequencies (basically the same hardware with more oomph), and is still binary compatible with the entire Nintendo Switch library without needing patches (MVG said this is his interpretation)
  • When inquiring his developer contactors on summer 2022 about whether the new hardware is still on track to release on late 2022 - early 2023, NateDrake heard more rumblings the new hardware is no longer scheduled to be released in late 2022 or early 2023
  • That surprised NateDrake, given what MVG has heard at GDC 2022
  • NateDrake mentioned all prior reporting was correct for its time, but plans have changed
  • John Linneman believes the new hardware described by Bloomberg no longer exists and that nobody should expect new hardware to be released in 2023 based on the timelines lining up, although he admits nobody's 100% certain
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo could announce new hardware in autumn 2023, with a demo event in early 2024, and with new hardware released in spring 2024, based on what Nintendo did with the Nintendo Switch prior to release
  • John Linneman wonders of Metroid Prime 4 could be a launch title for the new hardware, with Tears of the Kingdom being too late, although Nintendo could release a Tears of the Kingdom port for the new hardware
  • John Linneman and MVG believe the reason ADEV (the OLED model's devkit) exists is to allow developers to see the game on the OLED display whilst developing the game
  • NateDrake mentioned ADEV is not conflated with the new devkits with 4K support since the OLED model was always meant to be its own separate thing
  • NateDrake mentioned the illegal Nvidia leaks mentioned a SoC codenamed Drake that supported features, such as ray tracing and DLSS
  • NateDrake and MVG mentioned having no first-hand confirmation on which SoC was used for the devkits with 4K support (MVG mentioned he kind of assumed the Tegra X1 was still being used)
  • NateDrake wonders if because the SoC evolved and became more efficient over time, Nintendo issued a recall for the devkits Nintendo has been working on and has distributed, and distributed better devkits
  • NateDrake also wonders if Nintendo pivoted on a certain element (not a concept) of the hardware itself, causing the new hardware to be better, therefore the new hardware is no longer planned to be released in 2023 (perhaps early - late 2024 hypothetically?)
  • MVG thinks it's possible to assume Nintendo did initially send out devkits to third party studios, so the third party studios could become familiarised with the new hardware, whilst Nintendo figures out what kind of battery life should the new hardware have; once Nintendo got metric from third party studios on the average battery life, Nintendo asked third party studios to send back the devkits to initiate phase 2
  • John Linneman mentions this is what other manufacturers (e.g. Microsoft, Sony) do as well
  • Nate reiterated the previously reported information was true for its time, but was ultimately incorrect due to being reported on too early
  • NateDrake thinks Drake, which was mentioned in the NVN2 files, could still be developed by Nvidia, still be tested, and be repurposed for what Nintendo planned for what's coming next
  • MVG mentions that NVN can run on a multitude of Nvidia GPUs despite being geared for the Nintendo Switch, and has libraries that can be compiled on different OSes (e.g. Microsoft Windows, etc.) depending on which Nvidia GPU was used; and MVG expects no different for NVN2
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo will be fine without releasing new hardware into 2024 since the Nintendo Switch is the best selling console of all time, and there's a huge audience base that still wants to buy games for the Nintendo Switch, with the only problem he foresees is third party Nintendo Switch ports
  • John Linneman believes the strength of Nintendo's first party games, as well as indie games, could still make the Nintendo Switch an appealing product into 2024
  • MVG plays a little bit of a devil's advocate by mentioning there are first party (e.g. Age of Calamity, Pokémon, etc.) and third party games that have performance issues on the Nintendo Switch
  • MVG expects Tears of the Kingdom to be a generational leaps in terms of visual fidelity, compared to Breath of the Wild
  • NateDrake mentioned that in an episode of Nate the Hate on September 2022 that John Linneman believes generational leaps in terms of visual fidelity are a thing in the past, but not because of hardware limitations, but rather because developmental tools have become very advanced
  • John Linneman mentioned developers were experimenting with different development tools and techniques during the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era, during which best practices haven't been established yet
  • MVG mentioned the biggest thing in rendering techniques currently is that developers are pushing as many GPU instructions as possible to RAM, and pushing it in one go, due to the abundance of memory and memory bandwidth on consoles
  • MVG mentioned there haven't been many third party Nintendo Switch ports die to the Nintendo Switch having a narrow memory pipeline
  • Although the Nintendo Switch's hardware is outdated, John Linneman still thinks the fact the Nintendo Switch can still run nice looking games at 60 fps whilst running at less than 10 W (e.g. Burnout Paradise) is still somewhat magical
  • John Linneman thinks third party developers could re-explore some of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era games in their back catalogue, retool them, and sell them as remasters, re-releases, etc., on the Nintendo Switch, and get a decent amount of sales due to people's nostalgia of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era
  • NateDrake thinks third party support for the Nintendo Switch will wane down when Nintendo introduces new hardware in 2023 or 2024 due to the impracticality of targeting the Nintendo Switch hardware when developing a port of AAA games, and third party developers are communicating to Nintendo they want to release ports of AAA games to Nintendo's platform, but they need more powerful hardware to do so
  • NateDrake thinks that based on Drake, the features it has, and after making assumptions about the frequencies, etc., the new hardware could be comparable to the PlayStation 4 Pro, which is more than enough to receive downports of AAA PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S games, and there's nothing stopping the new hardware from receiving ports of AAA games
  • NateDrake believes Microsoft has done Nintendo a huge favour with the Xbox Series S, since if the new hardware can get Xbox Series S ports without too much compromises and can be upscaled using DLSS, Nintendo could be placed in an advantageous position with competitive hardware
  • John Linneman iterates DLSS isn't magic and there's a computational cost associated with DLSS, and the Xbox Series X|S already has access to FidelityFX Super Resolution, which is comparable to DLSS, despite not being as good as DLSS
  • MVG mentions DLSS introduces input lag, which John Linneman chimes in and says that's the case for DLSS 3, although John Linneman mentions games running at 120 fps using DLSS 3 does have lower latency compared to games running at 60 fps natively
  • John Linneman mentions DLSS 3 isn't beneficial if a game targets 30 fps from an input lag perspective (although visual fidelity could still be ok with DLSS 3)
  • John Linneman hopes Nintendo installs a VRR enabled display for the new hardware, although he thinks Nintendo's not likely to do so, with NateDrake chiming in saying he'd hope the display also supports HDR
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo could be afraid of OLED burn in, and HDR may require displaying at a higher nit of brightness, which is why a display might not support HDR, although there's a possibility the OLED model supports HDR when displaying at a lower nit of brightness
  • NateDrake hopes that if the new hardware's display doesn't support HDR and VRR, the new hardware support those features in TV mode
  • MVG thinks the new hardware is likely a "Nintendo Switch 2" since the Nintendo Switch has been so popular, although the possibility Nintendo does something unexpected can't be denied
  • John Linneman mentioned Nintendo doing something unexpected was from a specific era (under Satoru Iwata's leadership), and with Nintendo's current leadership (with Shuntaro Furukawa) being very conservative, Nintendo could simply release a "Super Nintendo Switch"
  • John Linneman thinks the reason for a dry spell of first party Nintendo Switch games is because Nintendo released most of the first party games way too early, and now Nintendo's on the drawing board for the new hardware
  • Although MVG doesn't want to talk about in detail about backwards compatibility, MVG thinks backwards compatibility with the entire Nintendo Switch library could be one way to entice regular consumers to upgrade from the Nintendo Switch to the new hardware
  • John Linneman thinks Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and the Warrios games (e.g. Hyrule Warriors, etc.) have run its course and reached a dead end with the Nintendo Switch (since the Warriors games have marketed graphical improvements), although Nintendo could follow up with Mario Kart 9; and he doesn't know what Nintendo's going to do next
  • NateDrake thinks there needs to be more exciting, fresh, new innovations for game designs of some of Nintendo's iconic franchise (e.g. Splatoon)
  • John Linneman thinks perhaps a hub world of Splatoon could be directly linked to all the matches happening within an instance, see all the matches happening, and jump directly to one of the matches, thanks to more hardware power
  • John Linneman also thinks perhaps there's a single player level game with an instance of multiplayer running in the skybox below the player thanks to more hardware power
  • NateDrake and John Linneman believe the next Super Smash Bros game needs a reboot, although they don't know how Nintendo could make it new and fresh without Masahiro Sakurai and without alienating the Super Smash Bros community
  • NateDrake thinks new hardware will be released at around 20 months (around holiday 2024 - early 2025), with MVG concurring
  • NateDrake mentions hardware is a very difficult, fluid thing, and the industry's constantly changing, which results in previously reported information that was accurate at its time ultimately being inaccurate, although that doesn't necessarily make previous reporting wrong
  • MVG is ultimately glad Nintendo's moving forward with releasing next-gen hardware
  • MVG thinks the next-gen hardware is a hybrid model, although he admits he's being safe
  • NateDrake thinks the next-gen hardware will retain the portability aspect, but he doesn't expect a 1:1 match with what the Nintendo Switch is, and there's a differentiating factor between the next-gen hardware and the Nintendo Switch
  • John Linneman thinks the next-gen hardware is a continuation of the Nintendo Switch, but better and faster
  • John Linneman believes the next-gen hardware needs to support Unreal Engine 5 specific hardware features (e.g. Nanite, Lumen, virtual shadow maps, etc.), which he admits is a tall order since the Steam Deck struggles with maintaining performance when supporting those Unreal Engine 5 hardware specific features, and properly support 4K TVs (not necessarily render games at 4K)
  • John Linneman isn't confident the new hardware will have ray tracing support in actuality (but the SoC having support for ray tracing is possible, although a different matter) since ray tracing drains battery life and won't be able to compete with the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, and RDNA 2 already isn't great with respect with ray tracing, with MVG concurring
  • NateDrake thinks a limited form of ray tracing is possible, but only when in TV mode, with John Linneman and MVG saying Nintendo and third party developers don't want that to happen
  • NateDrake thinks the reason why Nintendo won't support certain hardware features isn't because Nvidia isn't able to provide (e.g. ray tracing) but rather because certain hardware features don't fit with Nintendo's goals
  • John Linneman wonders how Nintendo would have hypothetically handled a mid-gen refresh (for the Nintendo Switch family), with NateDrake mentioning that's for another podcast episode
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That took forever.
 
Trevelyan said:
Looking empty compared to what, though? At this point we know the release dates of a game in Jan, Feb, March and May, and know of other TBA games. This time last year we knew of PLA releasing in Jan, Kirby in March, and Advance Wars in April. Go back to 2021 and all we knew about was super Mario 3D World and I think New Pokémon Snap?
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I‘m not comparing it to the last years because they were equally dissatisfying in January. As I‘m saying: This can change and I hope it does, but the original context of discussion was major games (I know this term is problematic), which obviously don‘t include a Kirby remake and a Bayonetta spin-off. The poster said that he‘s fearing that the next months, especially after Zelda, could be empty.

All I‘m saying is, based on experience with the Wii U, there’s definitely the chance of software droughts between Zelda and new hardware. Not saying it will be that way. In a forum where people discuss the potential launch line up of a console in 2025, I think it’s fair to speculate on the next 1.5 years, although I know that I‘m likely lacking information. Considering that line-up predictions always turn out to be too optimistic (how often did people expect Zelda? A new 3D Mario? etc), I don’t think there’s a problem with saying: the line-up could be empty.
 
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manfromthedam said:
I'm glad Polygon isn't here anymore, he'd be frustrated out of his mind reading all this doom =P .
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Dmax3901 said:
People saying that Drake will be outdated by 2024/2025 so therefore it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to release it then seem to be forgetting that Nintendo don't give a fuck about having equivalent graphical power to the competition. From what I understand, Drake in a Switch 2 in 2024/2025 would still be a bigger generational leap than Nintendo's had since the Gamecube.
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well, yeah (thats not hard, since the GC it was always ...sizable but not huge leaps), but the question is, how will it compare to the rest.
Like, for Genshin Impact the assumption is, that they are waiting till the switch 2, since the switch 1 would inhibit them in making bigger areas later on. while its easy to cut out old phones, with a console its probably harder to argue why a game that till last moth worked is not supported anymore.
multiplats where never the big story , but stuff like remasters. See, something like the amazing port of FF:CC works flawlessly on switch. such ports, that aim way higher, will be impossible on switch, and will, same as switch, needed to be scaled down. but that games core was psp code, not cpu/memory heavy, scalling back graphics is okay.
depending on how games, remasters and remakes are developed, by the time drake comes out, it is possible that it already receives games and ports that are struggling to keep 30@1080.
i still think xbox series s saves it in that regard, cause it will get games, but that one will struggle as well in the future.
karmitt said:
I know I am. I love the animation.
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only found out yesterday, not a fan of CGI anime...but the trailer actually looked really fluent, expressive...and like a fresh take without ignoring what made the original good.
 
NateDrake and MVG mentioned having no first-hand confirmation on which SoC was used for the devkits with 4K support (MVG mentioned he kind of assumed the Tegra X1 was still being used)
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lol what

MVG mentions that NVN can run on a multitude of Nvidia GPUs despite being geared for the Nintendo Switch, and has libraries that can be compiled on different OSes (e.g. Microsoft Windows, etc.) depending on which Nvidia GPU was used; and MVG expects no different for NVN2
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I'm not sure what he's trying to imply here. We know NVN2 is intended to run on Orin and Drake and that there's a reference implementation on Windows for development reasons. But it's still a successor to NVN1 which is intended as a Switch-specific lower level API.

To clarify - what he's saying is correct but I'm questioning its relevance to Nate's point about Nintendo using Drake.
 
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Man, I hope this doesn't kill people's willingness to continue speculating. All I know is I'll continue to enjoy Switch and Steam Deck as my go to platforms as they support handheld gameplay.
 
Dakhil said:
  • MVG thinks it's possible to assume Nintendo did initially send out devkits to third party studios, so the third party studios could become familiarised with the new hardware, whilst Nintendo figures out what kind of battery life should the new hardware have; once Nintendo got metric from third party studios on the average battery life, Nintendo asked third party studios to send back the devkits to initiate phase 2
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This item reads really strange to me. If this is even somewhat humored as a possibility by all three of them, then how would this mesh at all with 'cancellation'? They would be two different things entirely.
 
Serif said:
lol what



I'm not sure what he's trying to imply here. We know NVN2 is intended to run on Orin and Drake and that there's a reference implementation on Windows for development reasons. But it's still a successor to NVN1 which is intended as a Switch-specific lower level API.
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If there's one thing I've learned throughout this saga, it's that despite the plethora of posts all throughout this thread thoroughly breaking down the data in the Nvidia leak, and constantly referencing it, none of the people reporting on this matter have any fucking clue what they're talking about regarding it. It's incredibly frustrating how they talk about Drake and NVM2 in one moment then say something that blatantly contradicts what we know about them in the next.
 
kimbo99 said:
Man, I hope this doesn't kill people's willingness to continue speculating. All I know is I'll continue to enjoy Switch and Steam Deck as my go to platforms as they support handheld gameplay.
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That doesnt seem to have been the case so far.
 
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Aether said:
only found out yesterday, not a fan of CGI anime...but the trailer actually looked really fluent, expressive...and like a fresh take without ignoring what made the original good.
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CGI anime has some horrible execution sometimes, but over time there's been studios that have made technology really sing. Trigun looks exceptional in it's own way.
 
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