10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
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Now this I could see.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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LiC
Member
My thoughts haven't changed from what I said back at the start. What's different now IMO is just that, all we have to go on is the technical side of things, because the story from the hardware reporting is now totally incomprehensible. For me the development timeline still points to 2023, but it's less grounded now. You can't look at source code and say it proves something has to come out in 2023, just that it makes it look like it's supposed to.
2024 also doesn't make sense in the context of a cancellation or repositioning or whatever you want to call it. To me, if T239 is ultimately used in hardware launched in 2024, the only explanations are that it was always planned for 2024 (and the chip was just done ahead of that schedule for some reason), or there was an ordinary delay due to software, OS/firmware, etc. (not the chip). And that kind of delay could push it from holiday 2023 to early 2024 like the original Switch. It still wouldn't be the kind of delay that makes the window "2024/2025."
Another reason why the explanation doesn't make sense. Nintendo would be letting their custom chip get two years older, to then be put out in a position where it would be expected to be more distinct and powerful compared to if it came out this year. But as @Selarmor said, they can't avoid that by just swapping in some new chip, because that chip would need its own multiple years of development time.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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You're free to speculate, but saying that Nintendo's schedule is looking empty for the year in January before any Direct has happened is going to look silly.
Shadowrun
Cappy
The major moves are called Tears of the Kingdom and, maybe, a first price cut. Boom. Suddenly, a higher/flat forecast makes sense.
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I think you overestimate their later days. Wii and PS4 both sold pretty poor after their successors arrived, less than 6m between them. Or looking at it based on age rather than by successor, by the age Switch is now, PS4 had shipped about 88% of its total. Applying that to Switch would leave it shy of 140m.
Two years to get the new logo just right.
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a price cut, maybe, but how would a sequel to a launch game drive new ownership?
Shadowrun
Cappy
Doesn't have to be New-New owners... ZOLED will get a not-insignificant number of current Switch owners to upgrade/buy.
KMStwo
Luma
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Here:
I'm really confused by this. Especially since in the podcast it is said; in early 2022, he heard it may be cancelled. So back in September 2022, devs were briefed in what kind of things exactly very recently (concerning Drake Switch a then cancelled hardware)? I'm not attacking anybody, I'm just so much confused because this is so bizarre.
Marce-chan
Magical Girls <3
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With the exception of Smash and Mario Kart coming that early I can see all of that happening.
I think that, as it's still in development, it can be changed until the form it will take on the Switch 2. Just like Switch had more RAM due to developers asking.
It'll probably be the same chip as it's already done apparently but they can add more RAM and modify it as their will aiming for a 2025 compatible hardware.
Yeah I think a part of those were downscaled for Switch(maybe an exclusive/timed exclusive Resident Evil game? I think that when it started development it would always land on late 2022/early 2023 like the hardware was supposed to be, but now with it being postponed and RE4 being this year's game, I think Resident Evil Switch will be early 2024.
I think those would be a handful of games tho and some probably counted with some Nintendo money involved (like we know happened with early Switch era games like FIFA and Skyrim), maybe those that were close to completion were postponed indefinitely until the hardware hits, maybe others were turned into OG Switch downports somehow.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Those look like DisplayPort transmission modes (normally expressed as Gbit/s per lane, where 1620 -> 1.62 Gbit/s per lane, 2700 -> 2.70 Gbit/s per lane and so on). The Switch OLED dock uses a Realtek chip that converts DisplayPort 1.4 to HDMI 2.0.Are the references to T239 in this LINUX commit (from Oct 27th, 2022) old news?
Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Ignore me if already discussed. I searched but came up empty.
What this tells me is that at a minimum, T239 is using DisplayPort 1.4 which can output 4K@60Hz HDR (and even 120Hz) but beyond that, I'm not sure what other conclusions to draw. Worth noting that even the Shield TV with the Tegra X1+ supports 4K HDR, Nintendo disabled it on the Switch. So T239 supporting 4K @ 120Hz isn't a guarantee of Switch 2 supporting that mode. And the Displayport signal from the Switch has to be converted to HDMI via the dock.
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they were probably briefed in it being cancelled lmao
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And I know people that bought Switch for games like Mario Kart and Mario Party, just the same as we saw on Wii for Wii Sports and Mario Kart Wii. Anecdotes yeah
Mario Kart is a system seller, even if it’s a system seller for a slightly different demographic. It might take a couple of these types of games to push people over the line, but it’s still up there. It’s the game Nintendo uses in many in-store displays to this day.
Honestly, if it ends up being true that they were caught with their pants down and had to delay New hardware by 2 years (which means they will probably have to rush the thing like there's no tomorrow), when some partners already had devkits, that's an incredible case of amateurism somewhere down the line.
If that was the case it reminds me of the whole Stadia debacle. Studios making exclusives were being visited and told they were doing great work even up until the day before Google made the announcement online. Blindsided so many devs.
LiC
Member
I don't think this one has been discussed. It appears to be a commit to mainline Linux which isn't reflected in an L4T release yet. It was opened on October 24 and committed on November 17.Are the references to T239 in this LINUX commit (from Oct 27th, 2022) old news?
Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Ignore me if already discussed. I searched but came up empty.
DVFS (dynamic voltage/frequency scaling) information is potentially very interesting, but this just looks like an API and data structures, no actual data.
It does confirm 4 PCIe controllers = 8 lanes for T239 compared to T234's 11 controllers = 22 lanes, something @oldpuck had both observed previously. It also appears to have 1 endpoint (EP) controller compared to T234's 4, but I'm not really sure what that is.
I also don't know anything about DisplayPort link rates, especially since there aren't numbers from earlier SoCs to compare to here. The fact that they're evidently only provided on T239 is interesting in and of itself, though.
Disorientator
Cappy
Interesting. Had no idea DP to HDMI conversion was needed
Thanks for the write-up.
Wonder how much of this will end up in the final product, it it's indeed T239-based.
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I'll cautiously wait for FY earnings report before panicking.
But I'm glad I finally bought an OLED lol
But I'm glad I finally bought an OLED lol
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Catching up on everything (haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast).
I understand that this is all speculation, but 2025 seems like a bad move by Nintendo. A lot of fans seem to be thirsty for new hardware and waiting at least two more years will hurt Nintendo's momentum IMO. Hopefully we are getting new hardware by 1H 2024 at the latest.
Either way, Fire Emblem is releasing in mere hours. Get excited!
I understand that this is all speculation, but 2025 seems like a bad move by Nintendo. A lot of fans seem to be thirsty for new hardware and waiting at least two more years will hurt Nintendo's momentum IMO. Hopefully we are getting new hardware by 1H 2024 at the latest.
Either way, Fire Emblem is releasing in mere hours. Get excited!
Anyone notice the dichotomy between presenting the history of what happened as fact but having no idea (i.e., evidence/source) what will happen (i.e., current plans)?
I've got to say, I'm in a pretty weird place right now.
Half of me is saying "Pfft, yeah right. Team 2023, hype train full steam ahead!".
While the other half is saying "Yeah... Holiday 2024 makes sense too".
Half of me is saying "Pfft, yeah right. Team 2023, hype train full steam ahead!".
While the other half is saying "Yeah... Holiday 2024 makes sense too".
I remember when the OLED came out, I was worried I might regret my purchase because "supposedly" just a year away. Love my OLED, and so does my brother who keeps refusing to buy one because new hardware could be right around the corner.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
Nate kept talking about exclusives to the new hardware though.
I’m sorry, but you and your friends are irrelevant to this lol. It’s not a great argument.
Whatever list you make of “real” system sellers…3D Zelda, 3D Mario, whatever…I will tell you they weren’t the ones me or my friends bought the Switch for. We just eventually bought them. And around and around it would go!
You know someone who bought the PlayStation for GOW, I still say GTA and COD are system sellers.
Unless your argument is that there is no such thing as a system seller (I don’t think you are though)
So, you just have to go by objective reality I’m afraid…you can’t have a game that sells the most on a console and claim it’s not a system seller. You just can’t. You can SAY it, but it won’t be based on any evidence. Insane sales numbers is at least some empirical evidence of a game’s drawing power, must have, why you want a particular system.
KMStwo
Luma
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Lol. But it is weird to reply to Polygon's optimistic post with such a thing.
Also if the cancelling was the "things" briefed "very recently" in September 2022, so Nintendo just told devs they were cancelling Drake that late while devs were planning to release their games on in it in just some few months? What exactly did he meant replying to Polygon (having supposedly heard since early 2022 that the Drake Switch may have been cancelled) ? This whole thing is so weird lol.
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Not sure what the point you're making is. Isn't this always the case for any reporting?
It's a lot easier to source information as it's happening and after things happened than trying to figure out what's going to happen next. Nate and John are getting this information from third parties, and Nintendo isn't going to be wholly transparent about every detail of their next several years to everybody.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
I said Summer 2022 is when I started to hear it was being cancelled. The only talk in early 2022 was from MVG and he had heard at GDC from developers that they had devkits for new Nintendo hardware.
No, I don’t think so.
They had a theory/sources of what will happen in late 2022/early 2023 in 2021.
It does not sound like they have sources for what is currently planned. The implication is that no one has a devkits right now or no one with a devkit is speaking with them about current plans.
Does this mean that the sources with devkits in 2021 and 2022 no longer have anything? Why would the sources be allowed to get early devkits in 2021 but not given anything today?
Klax0nKlax0ff
Piranha Plant
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I wish Nate, MVG, and John would have elaborated a bit more regarding pulled devkits. They state it’s not that unusual, it happens, etc. When has it happened in recent history and with what hardware? Also, some clarity on how far along third party development was at the time devkits were pulled would be nice. Maybe it happens but one would think that third parties would be annoyed enough to talk more if they spent significant time and expense preparing games for a release window that was cancelled with no follow up plan.
Dekuman
Starman
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I'm struggling to understand how Nintendo can have a new console by 2025 unless they just reuse the chip that was going into a cancelled device. And 2025 seems way too late, it's going to be another Wii U situation.
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Nintendo makes mistakes lol
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I really don't like this outlook, I'd love to play Tears of the Kingdom in 60fps already this year. But at least we are now getting a clearer picture it seems. Their statement of Switch being at the middle of its life cycle more or less until the end of 2021 gets even more true by this, especially when you consider that they will probably still make some Switch games during the transition period to the new console until 2026+. That there possibly is a cancelled Switch Pro I see as a reasonable explanation; first delayed because of the pandemic and now scrapped because of being to close to the next console and Original Switch still selling well enough; especially when you consider Software Sales.
I would say that the successor of the Switch is planned for late 2024 - early 2025 already for a longer time. I think that there are no backwards compatibility issues at all for the Pro or the next console. They are probably still figuring out or defining some features of this successor.
Though I still think that we could see hardware from Nintendo this year. Maybe it is Switch Lite in a new form factor, maybe some Ringfit-like addon (They still like to point out that they like to do QOL) or even something unrelated to Switch.
For games I don't necessarily believe in this "no big games after TOTK for some time", because it sounds biased. Maybe there will be no big new 3D Mario game, but I could see them doing a redefined 2D Mario, a Donkey Kong game, some new IPs and I'm sure some surprises here and there. Also Pikmin 4 and Metroid Prime 4 exist. Otherwise yes, likely they will focus on Remakes/Re-Releases; bringing back old IPs.
I would say that the successor of the Switch is planned for late 2024 - early 2025 already for a longer time. I think that there are no backwards compatibility issues at all for the Pro or the next console. They are probably still figuring out or defining some features of this successor.
Though I still think that we could see hardware from Nintendo this year. Maybe it is Switch Lite in a new form factor, maybe some Ringfit-like addon (They still like to point out that they like to do QOL) or even something unrelated to Switch.
For games I don't necessarily believe in this "no big games after TOTK for some time", because it sounds biased. Maybe there will be no big new 3D Mario game, but I could see them doing a redefined 2D Mario, a Donkey Kong game, some new IPs and I'm sure some surprises here and there. Also Pikmin 4 and Metroid Prime 4 exist. Otherwise yes, likely they will focus on Remakes/Re-Releases; bringing back old IPs.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I knew there would be 10+ pages when I checked this afternoon, but god help me, I don't know if I can do it.
Every time I try to pick one as the "most likely of the unlikely" it starts to fall apart. So I will just add these two little things
Drake seems well positioned for a 2023 holiday launch. Just based on historical production dates and what we know about the existing state of the hardware from @karmitt and the Linux drops. It is not impossible that they slip past that date, but that is where the train on the SOC side seems to be heading.
Where is the launch library? If Nintendo cancelled a bunch of projects that were intended to launch around now, and would run on more powerful hardware, then what is Drake going to launch with? If devkits started to get pulled in March of last year that gives Nintendo 18 months to find replacements for those projects. If those devs had received updated devkits, they wouldn't be leaking about cancellations. So if Nintendo plans on a launch this year, they must have reached out to different studios to deliver the first year's library on a pretty truncated schedule, and have managed to keep every single one of those studios quiet.
Tossing in my 2 cents, which I don't think anyone will find surprising.
- Nate Drake, MVG, John Linneman, Mochizuki, Nikkei are lying liars who lie.
- I don't believe this, if for no other reason than there are too many of them
- John states explicitly that MVG, Nate, and John all have different sources for this information
- Nintendo planned an upgraded TX1, as MVG says he assumed, and thatwas cancelled
- Such hardware could not do DLSS. It simply could not
- Perhaps John and MVG heard about TX1+ devkits, as neither mention 4k
- And Nate heard about DLSS kits, and this is another conflation but...
- Mochizuki is explicit in saying it was 4K switch games that were planned for late 2022
- And Nate seems to affirm that he is sure it is the DLSS device that got pulled
- Nvidia planned a chip we don't know about, cancelled the project, it is gone to history
- This would mean that data about the cancelled project wasn't in the Nvidia data breach
- Which apparently does include references to other, known, cancelled projects
- Nintendo planned on using Orin to base a refresh on
- Orin Nano might be a viable option here, and the original Nano schedule was early enough last year it might time out correctly
- But it's a huge chip physically, because it's floor-swept NX.
- And Ampere is still not hardware compatible with Maxwell
- Nintendo redesigned Drake over the course of development, and that caused a delay
- In which case, the delay happened well before the Bloomberg report went out.
- Drake had samples in April, almost definitely. There simply isn't time for a complete design to show up in the Lapsus$ leak, and then be ready for sampling in April if the cancellation happened later
- Nintendo cancelled Drake entirely, Nvidia has continued to develop it.
- The timing here makes this seem unlikely
- Nvidia has no other imaginable customer for Drake that doesn't have their needs met by Orin
- Nvidia has done this before - when Atlan got canned, they didn't manufacture a couple of Atlan's just for funsies
- Unless things went real bad and Nvidia is about to launch a Switch competitor: see the Nintendo Playstation debacle
Every time I try to pick one as the "most likely of the unlikely" it starts to fall apart. So I will just add these two little things
Drake seems well positioned for a 2023 holiday launch. Just based on historical production dates and what we know about the existing state of the hardware from @karmitt and the Linux drops. It is not impossible that they slip past that date, but that is where the train on the SOC side seems to be heading.
Where is the launch library? If Nintendo cancelled a bunch of projects that were intended to launch around now, and would run on more powerful hardware, then what is Drake going to launch with? If devkits started to get pulled in March of last year that gives Nintendo 18 months to find replacements for those projects. If those devs had received updated devkits, they wouldn't be leaking about cancellations. So if Nintendo plans on a launch this year, they must have reached out to different studios to deliver the first year's library on a pretty truncated schedule, and have managed to keep every single one of those studios quiet.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
We were going to mention a specific example but opted against it, as the risk was considered too high.
None of us said 2025, though. John went early with Spring 2024 and I said by late 2024.
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Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Even Magic Leap isn't using a Tegra SoC anymore.
I'm struggling to think of something other than a Shield TV.
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But this is just the nature of reporting. Things that have happened and are happening are facts. Things that have not happened yet are not - they change.
Something happening in late 2022 or 2023 was never a fact. What was a fact at the time was that developers said those were the dates the were targeting for their games. If those same sources have had the kits taken from them, my read is that we're in a state that either 1. these particular developers aren't aware of what's happening next, or 2. new plans are not something they can comment on whatsoever.
I'm just trying to understand the point you're making sorry if I'm coming off as rude
Dekuman
Starman
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I think 10k was riffing on Nvidia being surprised by crypto collapse and graphics card sales tanking. There may be surplus booked space no longer being used for GPUs due to lower demand. Nintendo's TX1 deal, at least for the first 20 million or so units was also on the backs of surplus 20nm fab capacity Nvidia had to use untilt hey switched over to 12nm about a year and a half later.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
Early 2025 was definitely mentioned as an option, but I'm not going to find the time stamp
I must say, I do like the fact people are frustrated not having a device to drop £400+ this year
2024 is fine, they’ll have stuff for the time in between (even if it is being bolstered by ports) we may have a dip from 3rd party support but that would then hopefully shoot back up with the launch of Switch Next.
2024 is fine, they’ll have stuff for the time in between (even if it is being bolstered by ports) we may have a dip from 3rd party support but that would then hopefully shoot back up with the launch of Switch Next.
59:16 - "I think I'm gonna go a little later, where I would say probably Holiday 2024, or even Early 2025"
20-23 months of the Switch remaining they go on to say. While nobody said anything about Late 2025, I can understand how people would be a bit disheartened by this news and start to think along those lines.
Corim
Cappy
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I'm keeping the faith. If the 10th of February passes us by and there's still no word of a successor to the Switch, I'll probably bow out of speculation for a while. But for now, put me down for Team 2023.So are we now Team 2024 or Team 2025? Sound off below!
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OMG that's itI remember when the OLED came out, I was worried I might regret my purchase because "supposedly" just a year away. Love my OLED, and so does my brother who keeps refusing to buy one because new hardware could be right around the corner.
After all that talk from people about being mad if they buy an OLED and the new Switch comes soon after..
Nintendo delayed the Drake to give the OLED room to breathe
this is a joke
You’re not rude, but you’re missing my point.
I’m not sure how to clarify. I will try asking a question:
If sources had devkits in 2021 and 2022, do they have nothing today? If they have nothing today, how could we possibly expect Nintendo to launch new hardware this year, or even next?
If they do have devkits, how come there is no information about this? Again, we are talking about the same sources that had devkits nearly 2 years ago.
LiC
Member
Found an L4T reference for the DisplayPort speed support: https://github.com/OE4T/linux-tegra...a50ec8ba5e16b9/include/linux/phy/phy-dp.h#L23
This has all the same ones as T239 in that commit, except that T239 also adds 6750 Mbps.
This has all the same ones as T239 in that commit, except that T239 also adds 6750 Mbps.
Orin uses DP 1.4a, so I expect Drake is the same. Since it appears to have two lanes, that would make its max speed 16.2 Gbps, right? That's not enough for 4K/120 according to Wikipedia. But it would be enough for 4K/60 with HDR, and interestingly enough, the newly added value (13.5 Gbps) would be enough for 4K/60 with non-HDR. Kind of looks like they made sure to have the minimum speeds (and thus power consumption) available to hit those targets...
Is it possible Nintendo's original road map was basically this
Drake - 8nm (launch product like the 28nm Tegra X1 Switch launch model)
Drake revision - 5nm (Like Switch Mariko + Switch Lite) a couple of years later
But because outside factors like COVID, maybe things like software delays to Switch 2 software, and better than expected sales for the existing Switch basically just opted them to say "hey maybe we'll just start with 5nm and then later look at a 3nm model".
I mean from what we know of Drake, if they put it onto a 5nm process and pushed the clocks to theoretically higher peaks, we're looking at what? 3 TFLOP docked performance potentially?
Maybe Nintendo's original plan was to use a really pared down Drake chip with modest clocks at 8nm and accept the performance, but with timing issues maybe Nvidia said "hey you know you could start with a 5nm (eventually down to 3nm) roadmap and get greater performance potential from basically the same chip".
Drake - 8nm (launch product like the 28nm Tegra X1 Switch launch model)
Drake revision - 5nm (Like Switch Mariko + Switch Lite) a couple of years later
But because outside factors like COVID, maybe things like software delays to Switch 2 software, and better than expected sales for the existing Switch basically just opted them to say "hey maybe we'll just start with 5nm and then later look at a 3nm model".
I mean from what we know of Drake, if they put it onto a 5nm process and pushed the clocks to theoretically higher peaks, we're looking at what? 3 TFLOP docked performance potentially?
Maybe Nintendo's original plan was to use a really pared down Drake chip with modest clocks at 8nm and accept the performance, but with timing issues maybe Nvidia said "hey you know you could start with a 5nm (eventually down to 3nm) roadmap and get greater performance potential from basically the same chip".
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