Who are you kidding? It will still be the good old same T239 as we would have gotten if it released tomorrow.
-
Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
-
Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Never claimed it did. However, it is definitely plausible now.
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
One thing's for sure: Nintendo has clamped down on leaks big time. In general, Nintendo rumours are impossible to parse these days, even from more respectable sources like Nikkei, Grubb, DF etc..
I haven't read through all the reactions so maybe what I'm going to write has been said already but I feel like that podcast, which was supposed to bring clarity, actually doesn't clarify much and rather raises more questions than it answers.
It's pretty much 90% speculation at least, with the most meaningful piece of information being that Nate and John recently heard "rumblings" that the 4K/DLSS capable hardware that was reported on by Bloomberg and Nate himself back in 2021 isn't happening anymore, so the only clarification we have is that whatever was allegedly canned wasn't just based on an overclocked mariko chip.
Yet, we haven't had any clarification about the source as well as the exact content of those "rumblings": Who are those people Nate and John have been talking to? What position exactly do they occupy within the industry? If they are devs, did they themselves have direct access to the devkits, or was all the information they provided secondhand? In any case, what exactly did they say?
Without that information, there's simply no way we can assess the credibility of those reportings, or the accuracy of Nate's interpretation of what he has been told.
Even if we assume that the reporting is correct, then it has still to be reconciled with the very reliable information that has been gathered from the Nvidia leak as well as the whole Linux data mining, which I find the podcast's participants have failed to do throughout their whole discussion.
Nate and John have for instance stated that they have never had any confirmation that Drake was the SoC that was intended to be used in the cancelled hardware, thereby implying that Nintendo could have planned to use some other chip for that purpose, even though we know from the Nvidia leak that Drake is the only plausible candidate for anything that would be DLSS capable, and that the aforementioned leak would almost certainly bear traces of any other SoC Nvidia would have engineered for the purpose of powering future Nintendo hardware.
MVG has also chimed in by saying he personally expected the new hardware he had heard about at GDC in 2022 to be based on the Tegra X1, which is a bit laughable considering he also stated that his understanding was that said hardware would qualify as "next gen".
It has also been said that in case the cancelled hardware was indeed based on Drake, it wouldn't necessarily mean Nintendo isn't still planning to use that SoC in whatever they're planning to release next, moving forward from the cancelled device.
But in that case, I'd argue that what has been reported as a cancellation would actually rather qualify as the hardware being simply delayed and somehow repositioned, which wouldn't even rule out a release during late or even mid 2023, depending on what was meant by "early 2023" in the first place.
I must say I'm also quite bewildered with how the impact of the cancellation on developers that would have committed to make games for the new system is simply shrugged off with nonchalant comments such as "This is commonplace across the industry. It happens all the time, really...", as well as backpedaling statements about the whole significance of devkits having been distributed to developers in the first place, with MVG saying that those devkits aren't the kind of hardware you'd typically see in leaked pictures, but rather some loose prototype motherboards that are being sent to devs for them to fiddle and experiment with, just so they can provide Nintendo with their feedback on them.
I mean, if you give credence to the Fall 2021 Bloomberg report, as Nate himself seemingly does, then you must also acknowledge that the developers mentioned in the article were really starting to develop games for a new system, for having committed to do so towards Nintendo, as opposed to just experimenting with some prototype stuff, because that's really what the article just says.
Also, if the whole purpose of sending devkits to developers was just to have them experiment with some prototypes and gather their feedback with no commitment whatsoever to creating any games just yet, I highly doubt Nintendo would have given those developers any release window for the projected hardware. In which case, where did the idea of a late 2022/early 2023 release come from in the first place? Could it be that from the beginning, Nate's contacts have never done anything else than just speculate on that front?
On a side note, I had always assumed that the reports about devkits being sent to developers were most likely making an improper use of the term "devkit" and were actually referring to software stuff (i.e. SDKs), given that final silicon for Drake was almost certainly not available back in 2021 (which perhaps is also why MVG assumed the devkits he had heard about at GDC must have been based on the TX1). Now having MVG referencing "motherboards" and stating that what he had heard about at GDC were actual hardware devkits, has me wonder what those devkits were all about as well as what chip they might have been based on. In any case, it seems unlikely they were ever intended for the development of actual games on Drake powered hardware.
I also find it unfortunate that the podcast doesn't even try to address the question of why Nintendo would make such a weird move of cancelling powerful hardware that was due to release no later than early 2023, in any other way than by once again peremptorily stating that "plans change".
We know fur sure that T239 exists, at least as a project that must have required considerable R&D investments from Nintendo to attain the pretty advanced stage it is currently in. The data gathered from Linux commits also strongly suggests the chip is ready to enter manufacturing if it hasn't already.
Under such circumstances, it seems to me that for Nintendo to decide to just sit on that chip design for a couple of years or to scrap it altogether would be nothing short of absolute madness. Assuming a Drake powered device can be made backwards compatible, which it almost certainly can, they have got nothing to gain and pretty much everything to lose by not releasing new hardware about as soon as they possibly can.
Therefore it would have been interesting to hear at least some speculation from Nate and the others as to what Nintendo's crazy decision might tell us about their strategy in the grand scheme of things...
So all in all, there's nothing in what has been said in the podcast that does anything to change my stance on the matter of when we can expect new hardware, which is that I'm at least 95% confident it will be coming in 2023, with a quite real possibility of it still coming in May.
It seems to me that Nate might have been a bit too prompt to jump the gun on the matter of hardware being cancelled, without factoring in what is known for fact from the Nvidia leak as well as the data mining that has been done here, and is now trying to set his story straight by all possible means. The thing is, no matter how you look at it, it simply doesn't add up.
Finally, on the matter of that report about Nintendo planning to ramp up production for the Switch this year, it isn't being specific at all about the hardware that is actually concerned.
If the Switch's successor were to be presented by Nintendo as a "new addition to the Switch family of systems" and if it does share a significant amount of components with the current system, then it's entirely plausible that the reporting is actually related to a new device entering production this year. This explanation actually makes the most sense, as I don't believe Nintendo's management would be crazy enough to anticipate any increase whatsoever in the current Switch's sales going forward from now.
It's pretty much 90% speculation at least, with the most meaningful piece of information being that Nate and John recently heard "rumblings" that the 4K/DLSS capable hardware that was reported on by Bloomberg and Nate himself back in 2021 isn't happening anymore, so the only clarification we have is that whatever was allegedly canned wasn't just based on an overclocked mariko chip.
Yet, we haven't had any clarification about the source as well as the exact content of those "rumblings": Who are those people Nate and John have been talking to? What position exactly do they occupy within the industry? If they are devs, did they themselves have direct access to the devkits, or was all the information they provided secondhand? In any case, what exactly did they say?
Without that information, there's simply no way we can assess the credibility of those reportings, or the accuracy of Nate's interpretation of what he has been told.
Even if we assume that the reporting is correct, then it has still to be reconciled with the very reliable information that has been gathered from the Nvidia leak as well as the whole Linux data mining, which I find the podcast's participants have failed to do throughout their whole discussion.
Nate and John have for instance stated that they have never had any confirmation that Drake was the SoC that was intended to be used in the cancelled hardware, thereby implying that Nintendo could have planned to use some other chip for that purpose, even though we know from the Nvidia leak that Drake is the only plausible candidate for anything that would be DLSS capable, and that the aforementioned leak would almost certainly bear traces of any other SoC Nvidia would have engineered for the purpose of powering future Nintendo hardware.
MVG has also chimed in by saying he personally expected the new hardware he had heard about at GDC in 2022 to be based on the Tegra X1, which is a bit laughable considering he also stated that his understanding was that said hardware would qualify as "next gen".
It has also been said that in case the cancelled hardware was indeed based on Drake, it wouldn't necessarily mean Nintendo isn't still planning to use that SoC in whatever they're planning to release next, moving forward from the cancelled device.
But in that case, I'd argue that what has been reported as a cancellation would actually rather qualify as the hardware being simply delayed and somehow repositioned, which wouldn't even rule out a release during late or even mid 2023, depending on what was meant by "early 2023" in the first place.
I must say I'm also quite bewildered with how the impact of the cancellation on developers that would have committed to make games for the new system is simply shrugged off with nonchalant comments such as "This is commonplace across the industry. It happens all the time, really...", as well as backpedaling statements about the whole significance of devkits having been distributed to developers in the first place, with MVG saying that those devkits aren't the kind of hardware you'd typically see in leaked pictures, but rather some loose prototype motherboards that are being sent to devs for them to fiddle and experiment with, just so they can provide Nintendo with their feedback on them.
I mean, if you give credence to the Fall 2021 Bloomberg report, as Nate himself seemingly does, then you must also acknowledge that the developers mentioned in the article were really starting to develop games for a new system, for having committed to do so towards Nintendo, as opposed to just experimenting with some prototype stuff, because that's really what the article just says.
Also, if the whole purpose of sending devkits to developers was just to have them experiment with some prototypes and gather their feedback with no commitment whatsoever to creating any games just yet, I highly doubt Nintendo would have given those developers any release window for the projected hardware. In which case, where did the idea of a late 2022/early 2023 release come from in the first place? Could it be that from the beginning, Nate's contacts have never done anything else than just speculate on that front?
On a side note, I had always assumed that the reports about devkits being sent to developers were most likely making an improper use of the term "devkit" and were actually referring to software stuff (i.e. SDKs), given that final silicon for Drake was almost certainly not available back in 2021 (which perhaps is also why MVG assumed the devkits he had heard about at GDC must have been based on the TX1). Now having MVG referencing "motherboards" and stating that what he had heard about at GDC were actual hardware devkits, has me wonder what those devkits were all about as well as what chip they might have been based on. In any case, it seems unlikely they were ever intended for the development of actual games on Drake powered hardware.
I also find it unfortunate that the podcast doesn't even try to address the question of why Nintendo would make such a weird move of cancelling powerful hardware that was due to release no later than early 2023, in any other way than by once again peremptorily stating that "plans change".
We know fur sure that T239 exists, at least as a project that must have required considerable R&D investments from Nintendo to attain the pretty advanced stage it is currently in. The data gathered from Linux commits also strongly suggests the chip is ready to enter manufacturing if it hasn't already.
Under such circumstances, it seems to me that for Nintendo to decide to just sit on that chip design for a couple of years or to scrap it altogether would be nothing short of absolute madness. Assuming a Drake powered device can be made backwards compatible, which it almost certainly can, they have got nothing to gain and pretty much everything to lose by not releasing new hardware about as soon as they possibly can.
Therefore it would have been interesting to hear at least some speculation from Nate and the others as to what Nintendo's crazy decision might tell us about their strategy in the grand scheme of things...
So all in all, there's nothing in what has been said in the podcast that does anything to change my stance on the matter of when we can expect new hardware, which is that I'm at least 95% confident it will be coming in 2023, with a quite real possibility of it still coming in May.
It seems to me that Nate might have been a bit too prompt to jump the gun on the matter of hardware being cancelled, without factoring in what is known for fact from the Nvidia leak as well as the data mining that has been done here, and is now trying to set his story straight by all possible means. The thing is, no matter how you look at it, it simply doesn't add up.
Finally, on the matter of that report about Nintendo planning to ramp up production for the Switch this year, it isn't being specific at all about the hardware that is actually concerned.
If the Switch's successor were to be presented by Nintendo as a "new addition to the Switch family of systems" and if it does share a significant amount of components with the current system, then it's entirely plausible that the reporting is actually related to a new device entering production this year. This explanation actually makes the most sense, as I don't believe Nintendo's management would be crazy enough to anticipate any increase whatsoever in the current Switch's sales going forward from now.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Just making sure, but I don't believe a reason was given for expecting late 2023 vs 2024 vs early 2025, correct? The reasoning to me seemed to go something like this:
Switch revision planned for late 22/ early 23 "canceled" > 2023 is off the table > therefore "it could be any time in 2024 or worst case early 2025"
Whereas before, Nate stated specifically that devs were told to get their software ready by the end of 2022 as his reasoning for expecting the original time frame.
Either way, the easiest explanation for what Drake is or was...is that whatever current hardware is out there in devs' hands is Drake. I mean think about it. The 12 SMs, A78Cs and the fact that no one has definitively commented on it (not DF, MVG, or Nate) actually being the chip in the 2020/2021 dev kits is an easy red flag.
As an additional possibility, could all the linux data potentially be for testing final dev kits? And they're about to send them out en masse? It could explain why some devs still haven't heard of it, even two years after the pandemic.
I also commented a while back that the 15.0.0 FW update gave a potential hint of a March 2024 release date for NS2. It was purely based off assuming the weird changes in the FW were NS2 related and drawing "lines" between 5.0.0 (lite/v2), 10.0.0 (OLED) and now 15.0.0 (NS2?) being all factors of 5.
*Aug 5 is the earliest I could find evidence of v2 Mariko NSW hitting the market, could've been earlier
This "firmware theory" is what I'm sticking with for now because the firmware never lies. Or at least it hasn't so far. NVN2 leaks and linux have told us what NS2 will be, but FW never lets me down baby. So yeah, I understand I'm giving way too much credit to 15.0.0 and the whole "5.0.0 gap"...but my "firmware theory" is pointing towards a Q1 2024 release at the latest. I assume Nintendo could release it holiday this year, but we'll see. Based on this "data" and "pattern making", I don't see holiday 2024 as anything but a worst case scenario. Early 2025 would mean something catastrophic has happened.
Tldr: Firmware theory says Q1 2024. FY 2024 release.
Switch revision planned for late 22/ early 23 "canceled" > 2023 is off the table > therefore "it could be any time in 2024 or worst case early 2025"
Whereas before, Nate stated specifically that devs were told to get their software ready by the end of 2022 as his reasoning for expecting the original time frame.
Either way, the easiest explanation for what Drake is or was...is that whatever current hardware is out there in devs' hands is Drake. I mean think about it. The 12 SMs, A78Cs and the fact that no one has definitively commented on it (not DF, MVG, or Nate) actually being the chip in the 2020/2021 dev kits is an easy red flag.
As an additional possibility, could all the linux data potentially be for testing final dev kits? And they're about to send them out en masse? It could explain why some devs still haven't heard of it, even two years after the pandemic.
I also commented a while back that the 15.0.0 FW update gave a potential hint of a March 2024 release date for NS2. It was purely based off assuming the weird changes in the FW were NS2 related and drawing "lines" between 5.0.0 (lite/v2), 10.0.0 (OLED) and now 15.0.0 (NS2?) being all factors of 5.
| Switch Firmware | FW release | Hardware | HW release | Days after release |
| 5.0.0 | Mar 12, 2018 | v2, lite | Aug 5*, Sep 20, 2019 | 511, 557 |
| 10.0.0 | Apr 13, 2020 | OLED | Oct 8, 2021 | 543 |
| 15.0.0 | Oct 10, 2022 | ??? Drake/NS2 ??? | Mar 30, 2024 | 537 avg. |
This "firmware theory" is what I'm sticking with for now because the firmware never lies. Or at least it hasn't so far. NVN2 leaks and linux have told us what NS2 will be, but FW never lets me down baby. So yeah, I understand I'm giving way too much credit to 15.0.0 and the whole "5.0.0 gap"...but my "firmware theory" is pointing towards a Q1 2024 release at the latest. I assume Nintendo could release it holiday this year, but we'll see. Based on this "data" and "pattern making", I don't see holiday 2024 as anything but a worst case scenario. Early 2025 would mean something catastrophic has happened.
Tldr: Firmware theory says Q1 2024. FY 2024 release.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
That's pulling figures from midair, really. There's no reason to believe a factor of five has any influence on a hardware release whatsoever...
Edit:
If we go by evidence of new hardware appearing in the firmware, we end up with a very different picture.
OLED: Aula in firmware around March/April 2021, released October 2021.
Drake: New I/O system in firmware in October 2022, releasing... April 2023? May?
I also want to point out it is extremely odd to do PCIe timing testing and to push updates related to new hardware unless you already have your hands on said hardware. This implies that Nintendo already has their hands on a finalised MoBo and SOC for this device.
Sitting on that for upwards of a year doesn't make monetary sense.
Last edited:
thegodsend
Tektite
- Pronouns
- he/him
Honestly if we get a more future proof version of Drake at 5nm, maybe some other hardware improvements or something new regrading Joycons and in the meantime, Zelda, Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime, F-Zero, Kid Icarus and some other games, I won't complain and will happily wait until end of next year.
In the end, I care more about lineup anyway but if there's a new hardware, it should really make an impact and change how we play. I bought both a PS5 and XSX but in the end it feels just as the Pro updates, sure everything looks nice but the new God of War felt like playing a fancy DLC in some ways, not like a new generation of gaming. I'm more excited about PSVR2 right now then anything else in a long time, just because it will deliver a different experience to what I played for months.
In the end, I care more about lineup anyway but if there's a new hardware, it should really make an impact and change how we play. I bought both a PS5 and XSX but in the end it feels just as the Pro updates, sure everything looks nice but the new God of War felt like playing a fancy DLC in some ways, not like a new generation of gaming. I'm more excited about PSVR2 right now then anything else in a long time, just because it will deliver a different experience to what I played for months.
10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I want royalties.
Leviraps
Moblin
- Pronouns
- He/him
Not really the same since they weren’t given specific dates
The new Switch is coming in 2023 no matter how much cold water speculators try to throw on the fire.
D
Deleted member 1896
Guest
Has anyone considered the possibility that Nintendo are increasing production in order to have a bigger presence in other territories?
China, Korea, Latin America, etc.
I haven't seen this opinion yet, and it seems like a more reasonable alternative to other scenarios.
China, Korea, Latin America, etc.
I haven't seen this opinion yet, and it seems like a more reasonable alternative to other scenarios.
Nintendo could probably be increasing production to reduce/stop it in 2024 with the release of Switch 2, so they won’t have to do a lot of Switch 1 having already them.
I would say that 2025 is near impossibile in every way. In 24 months we will get the new console.
I would say that 2025 is near impossibile in every way. In 24 months we will get the new console.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Unless i miss something, it's 2025 in 24 months, no?
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Ok I finally got through Nate's podcast.
Some key things to point out. They are wrong about their timeline.
Reporting on next gen Switch successor started with a Nikkei article in April 2019, where it is a jumbled miss translated opinion piece with potentially some information about a next gen Switch beginning it's design. Devs were briefed on a 4K capable Switch which was reported by bloomberg in August 2020. Target launch was Holiday 2022 or early 2023 reported by Nate in Spring 2021. 11 developers (including Zynga) had devkits of new Switch 4K capable hardware, reported by WSJ in Summer 2021.
In this thread, in I believe June 2021, there was a poster here who said a friend of his was testing T239 and found power consumption/heat issues, and didn't believe a 2021 launch was possible which was discussed because of WSJ's report mixing up the OLED model with a next gen console. Canceled "midgen refresh" which they admit in the podcast could have been a new generation, they just assumed the timing made sense for a midgen refresh actually happened in Summer 2021, though Nate in the podcast thinks it happened sometime in 2022, but there are a few reasons why the rumor about a summer 2021 recall actually fits better, for one, there is LiC's DLSS find in the Nvidia hack, this is out of context, but the info has 3 clocks on a GPU, each clock is labeled by a power consumption, there is 660MHz called "4.2w" 1.125GHz called "9.3w" and 1.38GHz called "12w", the reason this test is so interesting is because this is about half the power consumption Ampere uses with these clocks on 8nm with Drake's configuration, at least via Orin's power estimator from Nvidia. We know Drake continued development through 2022, with engineer samples going out by April 2022 at the latest and finished silicon is actually hinted heavily by August 2022, Rich from DF also mentioned and agreed that this is likely final silicon and it began some level of production then.
Conclusion, if Nate's info about holiday 2022 or early 2023 is correct, and there is a problem with the SoC that delayed it, we know that the chip was only delayed about half a year, and up to 9 months later they had engineer samples for Drake that is seemingly much more efficient. In March 2022 they delayed Zelda TotK from a holiday 2022 release to a May 2023 release, a similar time frame was needed to shrink Drake, so if Zelda was suppose to launch with Drake, and Drake was delayed by 6 months, then a launch of Zelda and Drake in May is still very possible. We are a little over 2 weeks from Nintendo's earnings report and likely the next general direct. We need to be patient, after Feb 10th, we can move on to E3 for a Drake reveal, and after that a reveal sometime in 2024. There is no need to jump the gun at the finish line, lets just see it play out and stop worrying about if it's going to happen or not.
Update, I realize I didn't mention this, but an increase in Switch production likely suggests a new entry level model, this happened with New 2DS XL 4 months after Switch's launch. It's very possible Nintendo plans to introduce a Switch mini that would come in at $149 - $179 and replace the Switch Lite at $199, it's also about the right time for the redbox model to disappear and see a drop in the OLED model's price to $299, giving room for Drake to be introduced at $399. The idea that they can ride out the Switch for years while working to release a Switch 2, is silly. There is no reason Drake HAS to miss 2023 that we know of, insiders are going off the inability to get info from developers having devkits, but Nintendo has said before that ports only take about 9 months for the Switch, this means that if they want 3rd parties to release games on Drake in 2023, they wouldn't need devkits until Feb, after the public announcement we are looking for could happen. I think this is also a very fair move considering WSJ got 11 sources, including a named developer for these kits that were recalled around the same time the article was written. Nintendo is either playing it close to their chest, or there is some unknown reason why Switch 2 isn't ready for 2023, the canceled (likely 8nm version of) Drake from Summer 2021 cannot be the reason for no release in 2023.
Some key things to point out. They are wrong about their timeline.
Reporting on next gen Switch successor started with a Nikkei article in April 2019, where it is a jumbled miss translated opinion piece with potentially some information about a next gen Switch beginning it's design. Devs were briefed on a 4K capable Switch which was reported by bloomberg in August 2020. Target launch was Holiday 2022 or early 2023 reported by Nate in Spring 2021. 11 developers (including Zynga) had devkits of new Switch 4K capable hardware, reported by WSJ in Summer 2021.
In this thread, in I believe June 2021, there was a poster here who said a friend of his was testing T239 and found power consumption/heat issues, and didn't believe a 2021 launch was possible which was discussed because of WSJ's report mixing up the OLED model with a next gen console. Canceled "midgen refresh" which they admit in the podcast could have been a new generation, they just assumed the timing made sense for a midgen refresh actually happened in Summer 2021, though Nate in the podcast thinks it happened sometime in 2022, but there are a few reasons why the rumor about a summer 2021 recall actually fits better, for one, there is LiC's DLSS find in the Nvidia hack, this is out of context, but the info has 3 clocks on a GPU, each clock is labeled by a power consumption, there is 660MHz called "4.2w" 1.125GHz called "9.3w" and 1.38GHz called "12w", the reason this test is so interesting is because this is about half the power consumption Ampere uses with these clocks on 8nm with Drake's configuration, at least via Orin's power estimator from Nvidia. We know Drake continued development through 2022, with engineer samples going out by April 2022 at the latest and finished silicon is actually hinted heavily by August 2022, Rich from DF also mentioned and agreed that this is likely final silicon and it began some level of production then.
Conclusion, if Nate's info about holiday 2022 or early 2023 is correct, and there is a problem with the SoC that delayed it, we know that the chip was only delayed about half a year, and up to 9 months later they had engineer samples for Drake that is seemingly much more efficient. In March 2022 they delayed Zelda TotK from a holiday 2022 release to a May 2023 release, a similar time frame was needed to shrink Drake, so if Zelda was suppose to launch with Drake, and Drake was delayed by 6 months, then a launch of Zelda and Drake in May is still very possible. We are a little over 2 weeks from Nintendo's earnings report and likely the next general direct. We need to be patient, after Feb 10th, we can move on to E3 for a Drake reveal, and after that a reveal sometime in 2024. There is no need to jump the gun at the finish line, lets just see it play out and stop worrying about if it's going to happen or not.
Update, I realize I didn't mention this, but an increase in Switch production likely suggests a new entry level model, this happened with New 2DS XL 4 months after Switch's launch. It's very possible Nintendo plans to introduce a Switch mini that would come in at $149 - $179 and replace the Switch Lite at $199, it's also about the right time for the redbox model to disappear and see a drop in the OLED model's price to $299, giving room for Drake to be introduced at $399. The idea that they can ride out the Switch for years while working to release a Switch 2, is silly. There is no reason Drake HAS to miss 2023 that we know of, insiders are going off the inability to get info from developers having devkits, but Nintendo has said before that ports only take about 9 months for the Switch, this means that if they want 3rd parties to release games on Drake in 2023, they wouldn't need devkits until Feb, after the public announcement we are looking for could happen. I think this is also a very fair move considering WSJ got 11 sources, including a named developer for these kits that were recalled around the same time the article was written. Nintendo is either playing it close to their chest, or there is some unknown reason why Switch 2 isn't ready for 2023, the canceled (likely 8nm version of) Drake from Summer 2021 cannot be the reason for no release in 2023.
Last edited:
You are the only reason I continue to post.
Last edited:
maidhhc
Abundance is a social relationship 🌱
- Pronouns
- He/him
people would buy this to play TotK for sure
On the topic of increased Switch production starting in April reported by Bloomberg:
There have been rumors of increased Switch production since early this month.
I would not be surprised if Nintendo were bullish going into their next investor call.
Does this give credence to the ZOLED or new hardware in 2023, that remains to be seen?
There have been rumors of increased Switch production since early this month.
I would not be surprised if Nintendo were bullish going into their next investor call.
Does this give credence to the ZOLED or new hardware in 2023, that remains to be seen?
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Well, those same factory workers claimed the new device is getting ready for production. So if they're corroborated, that would strongly imply that the increase in production is for said new device...
- Pronouns
- He/Him
My biggest issue with the 2024-early 2025 talk is how it breaks an established cycle. Let me just quote myself from earlier:
1) the next Nintendo hardware will break Nintendo's typical R&D spend cycle for seemingly no reason and basically toss years of R&D spending into the trash to start over
2) the R&D cycle holds and they'll spend 1-2 extra years sitting on a finished product, waiting for Switch to wither and die, potential consequences be damned
Which one it is will be depend on the next earnings report and what we see reflected in the R&D spending, so I'm going to agree with @Z0m3le here.
Frankly, secondary happenings (see: Switch production increase, TotK OLED, etc) seem to cause wild reactionary swings in thinking about Drake itself, despite the info having minimal to no impact on it. Everything we work to establish as a foundation of information just seems to temporarily stop existing. I have to ask, what's the point of trying to establish a baseline of data to operate from when it's not being used to keep feet firmly on the ground?
If we are taking this new speculation and all the chatter of 2024-2025 at face value, we are left with 2 possibilities:I have to strongly agree with @Thraktor, hardware development is an incredibly involved multi-year process and does not just appear as if by magic at the precise time it’s needed; if it did, Wii wouldn’t have been allowed to wither on the vine as it did, nor would MS and Sony launch their new hardware in the midst of a pandemic. Been banging this drum since the idea that Nintendo could just stall the process to delay until 2024 or beyond started being bandied about, because any knowledge about physical product development would suggest it’s a tightly regimented process, with target dates for production and release well in advance, especially the more involved the product is and whether there are supply partners involved (like game developers, for example).
We can actually look at how Switch proceeded to get a really clear picture of how this all shakes out and I wrote a bit about this on Install Base that I’m going to cross-post.
New hardware following Wii U was already being discussed in the same year that Wii U launched (almost assuredly because Nintendo knew it had dead weight on its hands), with R&D beginning in earnest by the end of 2013, when they had already solidified the hybrid design concept, right down to the detachable Joy-Cons. Here's Koizumi's words on this time period:
So, depending on where you start counting... the timeline was 3-4 years from beginning to release.
The SoC would have likely been chosen in late 2014 or early 2015 at the latest, as the Tegra X1 was first being sampled by Nvidia in 2014 before being officially unveiled at CES in January of 2015 for a Q2 2015 wide availability, as "NX" had seemed to have taken enough shape that Iwata could confidently (albeit cryptically) discuss it a few months after the TX1 unveiling in March of 2015, and dev kits were being reported to exist in October of 2015 (and quite possibly sooner than that) and demoed to select publishers and devs at E3 that same year, which meant Nintendo would start needing to notify publishers of their rough release window for the device so publishers could set staff requirements if they intended to prep launch software (like NIS, for example) and would need kits to be in developer hands long enough in advance for Nintendo to get and implement developer/publisher feedback (like Capcom's famously fulfilled request for additional RAM).
So while an exact release date would not be available, they would need to provide a semi-accurate window for release 1.5-2 years in advance, at least, probably just a rough estimate with 3-6 months of leeway. And we know they had something far more accurate later on with their announcement in April 2016 that "NX" would release that fiscal year, with HW and SW sales projections making it super-obvious it was not happening during the holidays, so they seemed to have it timed down to 30-60 days a year in advance.
So, if we’re discussing Drake, they'd probably need to know when hardware was going to be released within a 3-6 month timeframe by 2020 at the latest and probably knew the year it would release by the 2nd half of 2019. Not so shockingly, this all aligns pretty closely with the timeline we can see with Switch from the date its R&D began.
And we can see that alignment based on R&D expenditure. Let's see this chart, courtesy of ZhugeEX. You’ll probably notice something.
Large spike in R&D spending starting in FY03/2014 (which is when it's noted work really got going on Switch R&D), which was persistently up for 3 fiscal years, right up until the fiscal year that featured the launch of Switch, when it levelled off...
... that is, until FY03/2020, when R&D spending saw a massive spike (a 20% increase) and has continued to increase YoY ever since. If we use the same timeline as we saw with Switch and count forward from when R&D expenses spiked, we are currently in the 3rd fiscal year since the R&D spike. Which would mean that R&D expenses should start levelling off in the next few quarters.
Between comparative analysis to Switch’s product development cycle (and, frankly, most other Nintendo hardware over the years, which follows very similar patterns), the Linux commit that indicates a tape-out of T239 and everything else we’re hearing, it’s all pointing to a 2023 release.
1) the next Nintendo hardware will break Nintendo's typical R&D spend cycle for seemingly no reason and basically toss years of R&D spending into the trash to start over
2) the R&D cycle holds and they'll spend 1-2 extra years sitting on a finished product, waiting for Switch to wither and die, potential consequences be damned
Which one it is will be depend on the next earnings report and what we see reflected in the R&D spending, so I'm going to agree with @Z0m3le here.
Frankly, secondary happenings (see: Switch production increase, TotK OLED, etc) seem to cause wild reactionary swings in thinking about Drake itself, despite the info having minimal to no impact on it. Everything we work to establish as a foundation of information just seems to temporarily stop existing. I have to ask, what's the point of trying to establish a baseline of data to operate from when it's not being used to keep feet firmly on the ground?
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
Morning Ancient One! Mainly hoping Fami's got their dooming out of the way this quarter
. The way this thread devolves every time a hardware rumour appears is quite embarrassing (I still think letting users fill in a questionnaire before being allowed to post here is a good idea xD).Yep. If there's hardware with Zelda that's nice, if there's not: Zelda finally comes out which is even more nice.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
As I've discussed before, I think the increased production and TOTK OLED could actually be EVIDENCE of the new device.
The TOTK OLED leaked, if it's real, extremely early. Which would imply it was manufactured in 2022 up until the LNY. Why? They were producing Splatoon 3 OLED in August, when it released! I can't think of why they'd do that. I don't believe in the idea it was because it was produced for the Holiday 2022 period, because it's not new hardware, just a special edition, and they knew they were delaying the game 9 months before the holidays. I can see no reason for this unless they're either forecasting unreasonably high demand of TOTK, or what I think is more likely, they are clearing the production lines, which would line up with what the leaker of the Splatoon 3 OLED said about them clearing assembly lines of OLED Model. Which to me suggests they're preparing it for something else once LNY is over.
The increased production is simple. It's because they're including the new console in that number, which makes more sense than assuming sales would randomly increase this year rather than slowly wane as would be expected.
I don't think Nintendo will leave the Switch to die on the vine before introducing a new model.
Aether
Kremling
well there is, the oled =P
Can't wait for annual shareholder meeting, this year it should be very telling.
Also, with FE out of the way, now the wait for a direct really begins Seriously, and that should give us a clearer idea of the calendar year to come, provided they don't something infuriating like "this direct will only be about Zelda"
Also, with FE out of the way, now the wait for a direct really begins Seriously, and that should give us a clearer idea of the calendar year to come, provided they don't something infuriating like "this direct will only be about Zelda"
Aether
Kremling
I'm on board with @Z0m3le and @Terrell, in my book the jump from late 2022 to late 2024 is just to big. late 2023 i can see (supply constrains etc), and them not wanting to move Zelda another 6 months or so.
But CES is over, we dont have a clue what T239 is used for, and its unusual to keep those for like years without somebody paying for it.
And if NVidia was aiming for a broader gaming android handhelds or tablets with this thing, then we would have seen it leak left and right from the negotiations with different producers.
As it stands, only nvidia and nintendo can take it, and nvidia only had 2 products:android handheld (the shield), not an option anymore since the switch. and the shield TV, an android set top box... and to be honest, for game streaming and media consumption that one is still sufficient, no real need for another chip, and it would be hard to sell to people i guess?
But CES is over, we dont have a clue what T239 is used for, and its unusual to keep those for like years without somebody paying for it.
And if NVidia was aiming for a broader gaming android handhelds or tablets with this thing, then we would have seen it leak left and right from the negotiations with different producers.
As it stands, only nvidia and nintendo can take it, and nvidia only had 2 products:android handheld (the shield), not an option anymore since the switch. and the shield TV, an android set top box... and to be honest, for game streaming and media consumption that one is still sufficient, no real need for another chip, and it would be hard to sell to people i guess?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
In the end we only can get clarity from Nintendo. You will always get Speculation regardless how well informed an outsidie person is. I feel like they did clarify a lot at least what information they got over the last two years or so and how they interpreted them. There are countless possibilities of course how you can lay out the facts we have and you can come to your own conclusion. Personally from what infos we have, what happened and considering how well Switch is performing right now I see a 2024 release very reasonable. May seems very much out of the question to me, if it really is a successor like console, 4-5 months seems just like a super short time span to release a console, even for Nintendo.
Take this as you will. Some may call it cope as it goes against my earlier prediction of TotK's release date but if the ZOLED is in fact real and all this is leading up to Fall launch of new hardware that would explain the increase in product so late in year.
What's for certain is Nintendo definitely has something up their sleeves.
What's for certain is Nintendo definitely has something up their sleeves.
Aether
Kremling
You can count on it, OLED Lite ...that can be docked! (but only puts out the undocked profile)
(...im joking)
(...but i feel like many will buy it with the argument: better screen and removes the only problem i had with the lite, that i cant dock it!...)
Aether
Kremling
oh, im off the weekly episode hunt. i will wait till we see if it holds the quality like usual, and then start during mid to end of the broadcast.
i had many shows that took 2-3 episodes to get their footing and get into a groove. (same with some games...)
MusicProposition
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- he/him
I don’t understand how these things would correlate. ZOLED is real = new hardware later on? I don’t know, I find it very plausible that Nintendo will squeeze out every dollar they can get from the base switch, meaning there’s no new hardware this year besides some different editions/models
Aether
Kremling
My argument would have been that it always can get those old ports, but the longer it waits, the higher the chance that ports of future games will be less of a problem since the power increases will reach diminishing returns constrained by size and power of consoles. (assuming there is not a breakthrough or they decide that consoles now can be as big as Desktop PCs...the PS5 is already a beast in its size)
i would not WANT it to take longer. My expectations, and knowing how many developers design their games, is that dwnscaling will be an option with many of tose, and im okay with the concessions, but i just wish a clear jump for nintendo first party games from the Wii U level, to see what they can do with a) open world design thats not hardware constrained as it is now and b) see them experiment with ultra high refresh rate or our there concepts with ai and raytracing, to add HDR to their artstyles, since i feel many of them would benefit hugely, and last but not least, reduce those sub 30 sub 1080 experiences, since im done with shimmering edges and stairs everywhere, this only got to be a problem since the move to "high enough resolution that its not softened, but low enough that its clearly visible". Thats why i hope for DLSS over 100% native: 4k is no option, and 1080 without AA still is low enough that we have those shimering edges and stairs, but DLSS would soften those.
Pooroomoo
Triangulum Strategem
- Pronouns
- He/Him
The only possible upside I can see for that is that, barring unexpected world events, the console should be cheaper out of the gate at that point. Not a real advantage to me personally, I would gladly pay $100-150 more for this console now, but an advantage for Nintendo.
Except it will be a little outdated lol
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
This all makes sense, I was skeptical of a new budget model increasing switch YoY sales by 2 million units but if I look at it from a percentage increase and decrease point of view it mirrors what happened with the 3ds.
If we assume Nintendo will hit their 19 million target this year(sixth year on sale.) then 21 million represents an almost 10% increase in year on year sales.
In 2016, the 3ds' sixth year on sale it sold 6.79 million units, in 2017 the new 2ds XL was introduced and 3ds sold 7.27 million units. Which is an increase of around 7% on the previous year, that same year the switch came out.
Many in the past have said they expect Nintendo to repeat past success by having switch 2 launch with Zelda just like the original switch did, I agree with this point, but it also seems they are to some extent potentially mirroring the life cycle of the 3ds also, this also explains the Zelda OLED as Nintendo were never shy about releasing special editions of outdated 3ds models after newer hardware was available. I manage a team of analysts in a different sector, predicting the future is heavily dependant on past trends, so it stands to reason they would use the sales trend of the 3ds and other devices to model switch sales and may play into their decision around when to launch Drake. This decision would have likely been made very early on in the switches life cycle. Sorry if the analysis talk was obvious, just want to cover off all levels of knowledge.
I am definitely team 2023 despite not having emotional investment in it just by looking at the data.
Last edited:
Paul_Subsonic
Être majestuatisant et subversif
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I'm new to this conversation and I may be saying bullshit, but ...
Haven't Nvidia stopped Tegra X1 production ?
People are debating whether a late 2024 release is possible, but has Nintendo actually enough X1s left to go to late 2024 ? If I'm not wrong, in late 2021, before the end of production, they bought 30 million SoCs. Am I wrong to think they will release a new Switch in 2023 simply because they won't have anything left to sell if they don't ?
Feel free to correct me, once again I'm new to this conversation.
Haven't Nvidia stopped Tegra X1 production ?
People are debating whether a late 2024 release is possible, but has Nintendo actually enough X1s left to go to late 2024 ? If I'm not wrong, in late 2021, before the end of production, they bought 30 million SoCs. Am I wrong to think they will release a new Switch in 2023 simply because they won't have anything left to sell if they don't ?
Feel free to correct me, once again I'm new to this conversation.
HankyPanky
Like Like
all it takes it one noble Uncle to slay them all.
It will still be in the exact same position power wise in comparison to other consoles, as it would be today.
Nintendo doesn't care about "outdated".
Nvidia to stop Switch's SoC production this year, Gamereactor was told
No word has been mentioned on what comes next, however.
looks like it was a wrong report
Nah that was a misunderstanding. They are still producing tx1 +.
boodream
Paratroopa
Nintendoo Insiders and Celebrities, what do they know? Do they know things? Let's find out!
I enjoyed the podcast in the same way I enjoy reading more or less instructional guesses here. It's just fun. I don't understand how it's possible to be angry or sad about the release date of a game material. Even if you think, for example, that MVG is talking nonsense, I really don't see why it should be upsetting. It's just someone giving their opinion on a subject that's not that serious.
The hardware has never been an end in itself. What makes these discussions about a new model exciting and fun is what it can bring to the future games, the perspectives it opens, the improvement of the experience and the galeplay it offers.
It's always about the games at the end of the day. The Wii U failed for the same reason that the end of the Wii's life cycle was so bad: not enough games. That's just it.
That's why all I'm interested in about the launch date of the next Switch is making sure it's appropriate so that the release schedule is solid, consistent, and good.
Of course, not launching ToTK at the same time as a next generation device will make the happy few (that thinks Cemu on Steam Deck is much more important than it is) sad , but other than that, what matters will always be the games. It's actually almost strange to want to play Nintendo games on anything other than a Nintendo system, because that means 4K matters more than anything else. That's just the opposite of what there is to love about a Nintendo game, isn't it?
The only thing I would really dislike is if Nintendo stopped releasing games on their hardware. It doesn't matter what hardware. And no, switch games in 2022 were not "worse and worse": if you think Splatoon 3 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3 are "worse" than the previous opuses, just change your glasses.
Yes, some ports have become objectively impossible. And others, released in 2022 like Nier: Automata or No Man's Sky are among the best ports we've had so far.
Last edited:
Erathix
Famiro
- Pronouns
- He/Him/They/Them
There's that hopium drug, right there. Level-headed and still looking at the finish line.
I agree, whilst I'm less optimistic about it launching with Zelda currently, I don't think jumping the gun and ruling out 2023 yet is the right idea. There's still nuances and variables to this whole saga and we still require that one pindrop, concrete fact, to completely erase 2023 from our minds. If it doesn't happen with Zelda, I have such a strong feeling about E3 2023 this year that this will be announced there and then for Holiday 2023, scratch that if we actually do get a surprise reveal for May. But that's the hill I'm currently dying on right now with all that we know up to this point.
2024 and 2025 makes no damn sense to me other than Nintendo cackling on the floor with maniacal laughter loaded with that Switch money and unable to have solid focus on the future to continue rolling in that Switch-FAMILY money that they could be making with some foresight. Releasing Switch 2 without any significant increases in its capabilities that far ahead will instantly outdate it and completely undermine the console, it would require a mid-gen refresh in order to perpetuate it long enough or have a shorter life cycle than the current Switch before moving on to the third (i.e Wii U gen.)
It's a mistake really, they shouldn't be repeating Wii to Wii U and if they've learned anything at all, they won't. I believe in 2023 still until their ninja's burst in through my windows, drag me to Japan and force me to see the horrible truth of the Switch 2's current state behind closed doors.
By that time, I will probably be living in Nintendo's dungeons until the release of Switch 2 proper and I'm allowed out.
Just have to be patient until the definition of patience is erased completely.
Intoxicate
The best is yet to come...
I still don’t get the cancellation.
With all speculations and the leaks from NVidia I haven’t seen anything that would make me conclude 24/25.
I have the OLED and I‘m happy with it. I‘m not in the rush to drain another 400$, but all together it points to a new version/revision this fall.
With all speculations and the leaks from NVidia I haven’t seen anything that would make me conclude 24/25.
I have the OLED and I‘m happy with it. I‘m not in the rush to drain another 400$, but all together it points to a new version/revision this fall.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Are the references to T239 in this LINUX commit (from Oct 27th, 2022) old news?
Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Sorry if already discussed - searched but came up empty.
I suspect that we don't see T194 and T234 DisplayPort link rates because their display controllers work differently from T239's. The Orin whitepaper (pg 4) states that it supports "1x 8K60 multi-mode DP 1.4a (+MST)/eDP 1.4a/HDMI 2.1", and this Xavier presentation (slide 9) shows "3x DP/HDMI/eDP" under display. It seems Orin and Xavier both use multi-mode display controllers to support both HDMI and DP directly, whereas for Drake, given its intended use-case, it would make more sense to use a simpler display controller which only supports eDP, as that's what Nintendo would require.
I'm with Kenji Fukuyama on this one. Nintendo would have to make a hell of a good argument for how they can sell over 20 million Switches next FY if they don't want analysts and investors to think they've gone crazy.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
The Switch is still standing very strong. A stronger console would sell a lot for sure, but if they actually are planing a full scale successor for a longer time with potential new features on which they are actually adapting their games for, it makes sense to skip a mid gen refresh.
Correct me if I’m wrong but those 2017 sales were for the period between March 2016 and March 2017 no? So it doesn’t quite align with the Switch if one is to expect a 2023 launch based on this small increase in production, if Nintendo wanted to follow suit they’d actually release it Spring 2024. The slight uptick for that year was probably spurred on by Pokémon Sun/Moon, with Go massively boosting brand popularity for the franchise.
Mind you I’m still very much open to 2023, hell even a May launch. I think Nintendo planned the successor to release 6 years in and is gonna for the most part stick with it.
- Pronouns
- She/They
I think people are way too attached to the idea that executives are always 400 IQ master planners and not fallible just like everyone else. Next year we're gonna see the sequel to one of their biggest releases ever and their first commitment to the mass media landscape in decades, and if the V2 cancellation rumors are true we'll see the first ever price cuts too. It's entirely possible higher ups compared this to the insane momentum of the Switch and thought "we can totally milk the shit out of this"
mjayer
Bob-omb
So what your saying is that they learned nothing from the end of the Wii? Got it.
thegodsend
Tektite
- Pronouns
- he/him
If they manage to milk the shit out of it and make a huge margin on hardware due to lower cost of goods instead of artificially killing a successful product by introducing a successor that has an impact on revenue and ROI, they actually are master planners
Aether
Kremling
Yeah, its either new hardware (successor or an ultra cheap switch for price sensitive customers), or a massive price cut in combination with another unannounced big big seller. And with price cut, i don't think 50$ will do the trick. that would be enough to slow the drop off, but not to keep the sales stable or increase them even (as implied...).
- If there is no price drop in the next months or announcement of a cheaper revision, i see a successor in fall.
- if there is a small, then i see a successor in early 2023, and the price drop to keep the momentum till there.
- if there is a big price drop, then i see a successor in 2024 in the FY 2024-2025
Last edited by a moderator:
