StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Ojoloco]

Nintendo has started negotiating production lines of the next model ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
A revision targeted for late 2022 / early 2023 was cancelled ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nintendo increases their production forecast for the current Switch ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nikkei opinion piece says a nebulous "the industry" expects H2 2024 because of the '23 forecast ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023

I've consistently been unconvinced by the _______ that leads to these frequent conclusions. More detail or elaboration would persuade me, I just want like, an actual reason, that is weighted with the development evidence we have. Or more definitive events like a new Shield TV being announced or a Bloomberg article about devkits being recalled with no replacement.


Damn Switch Lite needs to be $99 so I don't cry that much after a failed hall effect stick swap.

He is asking for the bloomberg article, not nikkei or the other info

 

[D36]

He is asking for the bloomberg article, not nikkei or the other info

Nah, it's cool, I got the gist of it anyway.

 

[Cuzizkool]

It’s gonna be old regardless of what node they’ll be on so it’s just semantics at that point

Right, but the node shrink would provide more power brute-force TFLOPs, rather than architecture based TFLOPs at least. Nvidia Thor will already be out at that point, so I’m hoping that we at least get the most node-shrunk Drake possible so it can handle a bit more wattage.

 

[Raccoon]

Nintendo is aware demand can only go down from the heights of 2020 and 2021. Im thinking its time for Nintendo Selects. Its a smarter move than a price cut as you avoid losing money on each unit sold, and a $30 to $40 reduction on major first party titles should prove to be a more enticing proposal than saving $50 on a one time console purchase, specially on a install base that just keeps buying games like the Switch. Bundle Switch Sports with non-OLED units while you are at it.

oooh yeah this is a really good idea. mario odyssey, botw, and (maybe) animal crossing for thirty bucks on shelves could get some new people to bite the bullet

Is it likely that IF Drake is launched in 2025 (gag) it could at least be on 3nm, so that it doesn’t seem so old?

the missing features would be the killer. from my understanding the whole landscape is shifting towards relatively unscalable technical systems, which means that drake likely has an expiration date of circa 2028 when new consoles arrive

 

[Serif]

He is asking for the bloomberg article, not nikkei

I was writing metacommentary in agreement with him, that there hasn't been an explanation for why the Bloomberg article about a higher Switch forecast means no new hardware in 2023. And Bloomberg doesn't give one.

 

[Sol]

Is it likely that IF Drake is launched in 2025 (gag) it could at least be on 3nm, so that it doesn’t seem so old?

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

By spring 2025 they could release a massively more capable system than Drake.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Right, but the node shrink would provide more power brute-force TFLOPs, rather than architecture based TFLOPs at least. Nvidia Thor will already be out at that point, so I’m hoping that we at least get the most node-shrunk Drake possible so it can handle a bit more wattage.

It depends on what Nintendo wants to pay for honestly. I could see them going for something slightly older then using a revision to get to 3nm.

 

[Raccoon]

anyway yeah this kinda stinks

I'm sincerely glad that the people who have spent the most time on this speculation care the least about getting results. I feel sorry for the people in the middle who have followed the discourse out of desire for new hardware ASAP and now feel unlikely to get it.

I really shouldn't make statements of intent to break habits because they always go poorly, but if I do wind up drifting out of the thread I'd like to leave with an expression of admiration for the little community you've built here. Thanks in large part to the NVIDIA hack and the members here who have parsed it, this has been an unprecedented leak cycle. I personally wish I had known a little less, but I'm impressed that it was known at all.

 

[Ojoloco]

I was writing metacommentary in agreement with him, that there hasn't been an explanation for why the Bloomberg article about a higher Switch forecast means no new hardware in 2023. And Bloomberg doesn't give one.

I'm sorry, it's very late where I live and the desire to sleep made me understand something else.

 

[Mango]

Yeah I don’t see those prices happening

I don't either I just providing a extreme hypothetical.

Lite = $179
Base = $249
OLED = $300

$179 doesn't really feel like a price drop. Aren't they $199?

Maybe $150, both for my OCD and because it's a better offer. Lol

 

[Serif]

Nah, it's cool, I got the gist of it anyway.

Yeah I'm sorry I used your question as a springboard to vent a little.

If I were to come up with a reason why the higher forecast implies no new hardware... I suppose, it's because Nintendo is expecting sustained demand for the Switch. Therefore, they would see little reason to release Switch Ultra at the end of this year, as their current device would be sufficient, and they don't need something shiny to entice new buyers.

-- but they don't necessarily have to wait for Switch demand to drop before deciding to release new hardware. The article says "Nintendo’s plan suggests it sees sustained demand for at least another year". Maybe they expect demand to drop after then, in which case having a new device right before that expected drop in demand could inject new life. A Switch Ultra would also meet demand for a 'Switch' device. Also, if they've been planning for years for an H2 2023 release, I don't think they have so much flexibility to shift timelines.

(I'm arguing with myself now, lol)

 

[LiC]

Nintendo has started negotiating production lines of the next model ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
A revision targeted for late 2022 / early 2023 was cancelled ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nintendo increases their production forecast for the current Switch ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nikkei opinion piece says a nebulous "the industry" expects H2 2024 because of the '23 forecast ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023

I've consistently been unconvinced by the _______ that leads to these frequent conclusions. More detail or elaboration would persuade me, I just want like, an actual reason, that is weighted with the development evidence we have. Or more definitive events like a new Shield TV being announced or a Bloomberg article about devkits being recalled with no replacement.


Damn Switch Lite needs to be $99 so I don't cry that much after a failed hall effect stick swap.

Hell, if Nintendo cancelled (or significantly delayed, or what the hell ever) hardware at a late stage, I would expect Nikkei to report on it!

And a real report too, not a meandering article about tangential subjects that tosses it in as an unvetted claim. I dunno what happened to the outlet that used to publish actual headlined reports on Nintendo's unannounced plans.

 

[D36]

I'm sorry, it's very late where I live and the desire to sleep made me understand something else.

It happens to best of us, homie

 

[Cuzizkool]

oooh yeah this is a really good idea. mario odyssey, botw, and (maybe) animal crossing for thirty bucks on shelves could get some new people to bite the bullet


the missing features would be the killer. from my understanding the whole landscape is shifting towards relatively unscalable technical systems, which means that drake likely has an expiration date of circa 2028 when new consoles arrive

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

By spring 2025 they could release a massively more capable system than Drake.

Architecture wise, absolutely. I’m just trying to remember the calculations someone here did on the TFLOPs of Drake based on node size. I think 3nm put it in Series S territory. A feat that is super unlikely in 2023, but more feasible in 2025. I wish I could find that post. Was it something @oldpuck posted?

 

[Mekanos]

I'm just spitballing why are you on my ass like this

excuse me for not being as well-versed in hardware or having as good of business intuition as the rest of the thread

I'm just teasing, I enjoy your posts

I actually unironically hope it's called Super Mario Bros. 5

 

[Raccoon]

I'm just teasing, I enjoy your posts

I actually unironically hope it's called Super Mario Bros. 5

oh um my bad

I'm evidently pretty grumpy about all this a millimeter beneath my affable facade

 

[Serif]

(I would've been fine with an upclocked Mariko in 2019/2020, Nintendo)

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I don't either I just providing a extreme hypothetical.

$179 doesn't really feel like a price drop. Aren't they $199?

Maybe $150, both for my OCD and because it's a better offer. Lol

I expect the Lite to stay 199 with the other possibly going down 50. Considering OLED is slowly replacing OG Switch then the only price drop may be the OLED, though again with their comments on the margins it’s hard to say. Their fiscal results will shed a lot more light on this subject.

 

[kimbo99]

Have fun, y'all.

You can count on a couple of OLED Special Editions this year

 

[SiG]

I'm just teasing, I enjoy your posts

I actually unironically hope it's called Super Mario Bros. 5

Super Mario Bros. V: The Phantom Plumber

V has come too.

Have fun, y'all.

Incoming price cut/new bundles.

Nintendo has started negotiating production lines of the next model ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
A revision targeted for late 2022 / early 2023 was cancelled ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nintendo increases their production forecast for the current Switch ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nikkei opinion piece says a nebulous "the industry" expects H2 2024 because of the '23 forecast ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023

If they're ramping up production, then in no way does it makes sense that 2H 2023 will be empty as people speculated.

I'm expecting some sort of announcement at the very least. It probably won't be "soon", but will be dropped on "an odd day" when people least expect it.

 

[YugamiSekai]

If the V2 discontinuation rumor is true then that kinda gives more merit to the OLED price drop.

 

[kimbo99]

There was way too much discussion amongst enthusiasts about "I'll skip OLED and wait for Pro/Switch 2" where the latter never had a confirmed date

 

[Look over there]

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

By spring 2025 they could release a massively more capable system than Drake.

The issue with the bolded is that we're memory bandwidth-bound until 2026 at the earliest.
Edit: Shit, the bolding doesn't stand out much here for some reason. More capable's one thing. 'Massively' so? That's the question mark.

 

[Hocot8]

.


Please forgive me for the shitpost.

The discussion is an impenetrable tangled mess right now, and I just thought I could make it a little worse I guess :X

No worries haha. I just think people are driving themselves crazy for no reason. A lot of the discussion is really bad and I don't get it. I'm only here to see what comes from the news today. Does Bloomberg have more? Will someone from VGC say something? Other than I don't see the need for this thread for quite a bit(maybe til E3 season). I also think this site and the people could use a break from the "speculation" about Switch 2 or whatever the hell it is lol.

 

[D36]

Yeah I'm sorry I used your question as a springboard to vent a little.

If I were to come up with a reason why the higher forecast implies no new hardware... I suppose, it's because Nintendo is expecting sustained demand for the Switch. Therefore, they would see little reason to release Switch Ultra at the end of this year, as their current device would be sufficient, and they don't need something shiny to entice new buyers.

-- but they don't necessarily have to wait for Switch demand to drop before deciding to release new hardware. The article says "Nintendo’s plan suggests it sees sustained demand for at least another year". Maybe they expect demand to drop after then, in which case having a new device right before that expected drop in demand could inject new life. A Switch Ultra would also meet demand for a 'Switch' device. Also, if they've been planning for years for an H2 2023 release, I don't think they have so much flexibility to shift timelines.

(I'm arguing with myself now, lol)

No no, it's alright, I agree with you, I just can't be convinced that new hardware isn't soon without concrete evidence and this thread seems volatile as hell.

 

[Hosermess]

You know who I want to chime in right about now? iNess.

But I'm sure he's too busy showing Doug Bowser and Jensen his favourite ramen spots.

 

[Look over there]

You know who I want to chime in right about now? iNess.

But I'm sure he's too busy showing Doug Bowser and Jensen his favourite ramen spots.

Ethics with Christmas wasn't enough; we also needed Ethics with this new year.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

so... hyped for the new Trigun show, or indifferent?

Super hyped about it conceptually. First episode was just fine, but didn’t blow me away.

I hope it’s just a slow start and gets better every week.

I wonder if I will have the same underwhelmed reaction when the next piece of Nintendo hardware actually comes out.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

spring 2024 would be too early, get ready for 2025

You’re my favorite procyonidae

 

[lexony]

I feel like that this year we will once again find out that we all underestimate the Nintendo Switch. This will be the best selling console ever no doubt.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

I feel like that this year we will once again find out that we all underestimate the Nintendo Switch. This will be the best selling console ever no doubt.

Looks like PS2 is back on the menu boys. Said it once and I’ll say it again. Nintendo wants that goat system trophy.

 

[Bowser Sr.]

The longer the Switch lives, the longer they have to make the Joycon 2.0 Drift Free!

Right?

 

[LiC]

The longer the Switch lives, the longer they have to make the Joycon 2.0 Drift Free!

Right?

I don't think they need any more time to do that, considering their supplier already has a patent for Joycon-sized magnetic joysticks, which uses diagrams suspiciously identical to the Switch Joycons instead of resembling the stock model. The stock model also doesn't support center push, while the sticks in the patent do.

That doesn't mean they have to use them, but I find it very plausible that Nintendo would wait to release updated Joycons with a new Switch, even as they release the same ones to be compatible with current Switches, because that will attract people to buying a new model and getting the Joycons "for free" instead of just replacing their current Joycons.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

I guess my biggest gripe with this news is WHAT chip will be in this 2024/2025 model. I mean, release Switch 2 whenever, but please don’t let it be withered tech. If it’s still the same Drake based on an Orin revision in 2025, at least let it be on 3nm or something.

2024/2025? Good chance it’s a die shrunk Mariko bc Nintendo

 

[Raccoon]

I don't think they need any more time to do that, considering their supplier already has a patent for Joycon-sized magnetic joysticks, which uses diagrams suspiciously identical to the Switch Joycons instead of resembling the (discontinued) stock model. The stock model also didn't support center push, while the sticks in the patent do.

That doesn't mean they have to use them, but I find it very plausible that Nintendo would wait to release updated Joycons with a new Switch, even as they release the same ones to be compatible with current Switches, because that will attract people to buying a new model and getting the Joycons "for free" instead of just replacing their current Joycons.

hahaha I can't believe I missed this

@efyu_lemonardo I'd be willing to call off the bet if you want

 

[Serif]

When inquiring his developer contactors on summer 2022 about whether the new hardware is still on track to release on late 2022 - early 2023, NateDrake heard more rumblings the new hardware is no longer scheduled to be released in late 2022 or early 2023

Thinking on this a bit... here's my view, just trying to reconcile what I learned and interpreting this literally. Another mental exercise.

Let's say Drake was going to be put in a "Switch Plus" and Nintendo had specific software, features, and marketing prepared that would have positioned it closer to a Game Boy Color (I still think Drake is overkill for this, just bear with me...) The intent was to release this in late 2022, and early 2023 would have been the latest possible time. (Maybe even tied with a Zelda release) In summer 2022 they decided against this positioning, maybe the hardware or software wasn't ready and/or they didn't want to push a 'Plus' model if it was going to be delayed anyway. Their Switch Plus plans were scrapped, and they're delaying Drake by a year from late 2022 to late 2023.

I don't know what would have happened with devkits. From the perspective of third-party developers, if there is no actual change in the SoC, I'm not sure how much it matters. They'd still be developing the same games with an Orin-based DLSS-enabled SoC. But if partners were briefed in September, perhaps they were informed that 'Switch Plus' is no longer happening. This would affect the roadmap of developers. Maybe developers were informed in the summer that Nintendo was considering scrapping S+ and received confirmation later on.

Instead Drake will be used in a "Switch Super", with more features, different joy-con, and distinct marketing like a Game Boy Advance making it clearer it's a next-gen system. Possibly launching with a 3D Mario in Holiday 2023, Q1 '24 at the latest (essentially shifting that Switch Plus timeframe by one year). Switch Plus cancelled, Switch Super takes its place. Same T239 chip in a 'different' device.

Definitely missing something and I'm not even convinced, I'm just trying to make sense of it. Feels like some weird semantics game over what 'cancellation' means.

 

[Hocot8]

Super Mario Bros. V: The Phantom Plumber

V has come too.

Incoming price cut/new bundles.

If they're ramping up production, then in no way does it makes sense that 2H 2023 will be empty as people speculated.

I'm expecting some sort of announcement at the very least. It probably won't be "soon", but will be dropped on "an odd day" when people least expect it.

Nobody said it's going to be empty. Two people who know the industry said they can see or think there may not be a "big" game after Zelda. That means nothing haha. People just ran with it because negative stories do that. Plus people were still believing a Switch 2/Pro release this year. Pokemon is going to be there. Nintendo will have something else. Will it be a big Mario game? I suspect not (BUT idk)because I'd think Andy or someone would hint towards it. Pikmin 4 is also coming even if I think it'll get delayed. I'm just a pessimist haha.

I'd say look forward for more lowkey games. Casual stuff. Maybe a remaster or two.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

My way too specific expectations moving forward as a laugh I guess:

Throughout now to September 2024: Splatoon updates
Throughout: NSO updates

Feb 2023: Kirby, Octopath 2 (multiplatform)
March 2023: Bayonetta spinoff, MK8 DLC wave 4
April 2023: Not much
May 2023: Not much
June 2023: New casual title
July 2023: MK8 DLC 5
August 2023: Prime 1 Remake, Xenoblade 3 expansion
September 2023: TotK
October 2023: Pokemon SV DLC, new Grezzo 2D platformer
November 2023: Fire Emblem Engage DLC wave 4
December 2023: Not much
January 2024: Detective Pikachu 2
February 2024: Not much
March 2024: New 2D Mario game
April 2024: New casual game
May 2024: Pikmin 4
June 2024: Kid Icarus Uprising Remastered
July 2024: Next Paper Mario
August 2024: Wind Waker HD port
September 2024: Something Kirby
October 2024 (release of Switch 2): Metroid Prime 4 (cross-gen), Mario Party Next (cross-gen)
November 2024: New Pokemon RPG (cross-gen)

 

[Mango]

My way too specific expectations moving forward as a laugh I guess:

Throughout now to September 2024: Splatoon updates
Throughout: NSO updates

Feb 2023: Kirby, Octopath 2 (multiplatform)
March 2023: Bayonetta spinoff, MK8 DLC wave 4
April 2023: Not much
May 2023: Not much
June 2023: New casual title
July 2023: MK8 DLC 5
August 2023: Prime 1 Remake, Xenoblade 3 expansion
September 2023: TotK
October 2023: Pokemon SV DLC, new Grezzo 2D platformer
November 2023: Fire Emblem Engage DLC wave 4
December 2023: Not much
January 2024: Detective Pikachu 2
February 2024: Not much
March 2024: New 2D Mario game
April 2024: New casual game
May 2024: Pikmin 4
June 2024: Kid Icarus Uprising Remastered
July 2024: Next Paper Mario
August 2024: Wind Waker HD port
September 2024: Something Kirby
October 2024 (release of Switch 2): Metroid Prime 4 (cross-gen), Mario Party Next (cross-gen)
November 2024: New Pokemon RPG (cross-gen)

Why are you expecting Zelda in September and not May.

 

[Pavolink]

So, the next dates to debunk rumors or get some info for future speculation is the supposed begin of production for new hardware on the 22nd and the investor’s meeting early February.

What a ride!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why are you expecting Zelda in September and not May.

One last delay.

Overall, I think this lineup is reasonable from a

1. Dev timeline perspective
2. Quantity of small and minor releases perspective
3. Support during a console transition perspective

 

[Gamecocks625]

One last delay.

Overall, I think this lineup is reasonable from a

1. Dev timeline perspective
2. Quantity of small and minor releases perspective
3. Support during a console transition perspective

Genuine question, when was the last time Nintendo gave a specific release date and then delayed said game?

 

[Mango]

One last delay.

Oh, well I highly doubt that will happen. But who knows.

-------

Anyways thinking about it. Let's say the next system launches November 2024. If they put a new Mario Kart out by the end of the following Fiscal Year, so before April 2025. Than that would be like the perfect place for it following the MK8D DLC. As you don't want it too far, as you want MK ok peoples minds, but you also don't want it too close to the DLC. A whole year gap between the two makes sense to me.

Of course that doesn't require the next system be November 2024, it could be spring 2024 or summer. Which is closer to what I feel is probably when it will release.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Genuine question, when was the last time Nintendo gave a specific release date and then delayed said game?

It was Advance Wars 1+2 twice. The second for the Russia-Ukraine war, unclear what the first delay was for.

For major software, I can't remember.

 

[Hosermess]

One last delay.

Overall, I think this lineup is reasonable from a

1. Dev timeline perspective
2. Quantity of small and minor releases perspective
3. Support during a console transition perspective

Nintendo leaving April to July empty (a few more Kart tracks is meh) while Street Fighter 6, FF16, Diablo 4, Dead Island 2, Suicide Squad (and maybe a couple others not confirmed yet) are all released for Ps5/Xbox is probably not a good idea.

 

[KCannon]

Hell, if Nintendo cancelled (or significantly delayed, or what the hell ever) hardware at a late stage, I would expect Nikkei to report on it!

And a real report too, not a meandering article about tangential subjects that tosses it in as an unvetted claim. I dunno what happened to the outlet that used to publish actual headlined reports on Nintendo's unannounced plans.

To be fair, unannounced cancellations are not very often reported. Drake by itself never had any concrete reports about to begin with despite its very likely existence. It was always sporadic leaks about possible components and kits that we needed to make sense of.

God knows how many projects Nintendo has shelved in their top secret cancellation closet. Maybe the whole story will emerge someday in the future.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

It was Advance Wars 1+2 twice. The second for the Russia-Ukraine war, unclear what the first delay was for.

For major software, I can't remember.

Don’t think the situations are really comparable between the two franchises

 

[Hosermess]

To be fair, unannounced cancellations are not very often reported. Drake by itself never had any concrete reports about to begin with despite its very likely existence. It was always sporadic leaks about possible components and kits that we needed to make sense of.

God knows how many projects Nintendo has shelved in their top secret cancellation closet. Maybe the whole story will emerge someday in the future.

Most projects don't get to the stage of at least 11 development studios having devkits for them though. The whole 'oh it was maybe a trial run' idea floated by MVG is a little weird when you combine it with both Nate's & Bloomberg's sources saying they were given a timetable for release.

 

[ertaboy356b]

Genuine question, when was the last time Nintendo gave a specific release date and then delayed said game?

Xenoblade and Splatoon swap probably.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

And?

Nintendo couldn't make as many Switches as they wanted to for more than a year, and they had to revise their forecast downward multiple times. Those supply-constrained conditions are now lifting per the article, in the same financial year that they're releasing a sequel to Breath of the Wild, on top of games we don't know about yet (despite what Chris Dring would have you believe). Therefore, their production forecast has increased. They think they will be able to sell more Switches than they did last year, so they are planning to produce that many. That's literally all this means.

How any of that means that new hardware can't be launched in this calendar year has yet to be explained.

Anyone remember that smart, handsome, well endowed guy who said chip oversupply is coming while small peepee public company CEOs predicted the chip shortage lasting until 2024?