StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Paxie]

If what MVG/Nate/John are saying is true, I imagine what may have happened is that Drake was planned to be seriously downclocked and sold as a Pro by the end of 2022 with a successor in 2026-2027 using an enhanced Drake operating at higher capacity, but something happened to change Nintendo's mind (the Switch's continued momentum, issues with the chip, etc). They ended up scrapping the Pro while accelerating the schedule of the successor by 1-3 years to compensate, and the successor is now using the Drake chip meant for the Pro at higher clocks. I don't know how feasible this is irl, but it's the only way I can wrap my head around this

 

[Serif]

I'm sure this has been asked before, and is a tiring question, but I don't follow the thread super closely and am not super tech knowledgeable, but how 100% sure are we that the T239 is the chip they're using? I know the whole NVN2 thing ties it to Nintendo because the Switch is NVN, but is there anything other than that? Like is it not possible they're using something we know nothing about that wasn't leaked?

 

[Hermii]

I'm sure this has been asked before, and is a tiring question, but I don't follow the thread super closely and am not super tech knowledgeable, but how 100% sure are we that the T239 is the chip they're using? I know the whole NVN2 thing ties it to Nintendo because the Switch is NVN, but is there anything other than that? Like is it not possible they're using something we know nothing about that wasn't leaked?

The chips featureset would make specifically sense for a game device, and not so much a general purpose tablet device.

One example is the just Big cpu configuration (8 big cores). This gives lots of performance, but for a general purpose device you would also want the small cores for battery life. The other example is that it has a custom file decompression engine for games.

So in conclusion it's not a great fit for anything but a dedicated game device.

 

[Pavolink]

ok can someone please help me understand this... theres one video from switchforce saying no switch until 2025?!?!?!!?!? then on the4 flipside this spanish youtuber behind the games say the switch 2 is in pre production??!??! what is going on????

Most of the rumors that the spanish YouTuber talks about are similar to the ones discussed in this forum. And always address them as rumors.

The other one, I stopped watching his videos long ago, but I remember him jumping to conclusions very easily.

 

[Raccoon]

Reggie refers to Furukawa as a "Iwata's right hand man at the time". It's pretty telling to me that they had no plan what so ever on Iwata's successor, since his cancer came back in around of March 2015. And after that it sadly got pretty quick. So I don't believe Furukawa was after positioned as future CEO, that was done when Kimishima took over since they knew he is only temporary.

Anyway, way of topic here. Just wanted to point out my two cents.

his being the right hand man no doubt positioned him for his current role imo

he's nintendo's tim cook

 

[wolftendo]

5nm Drake was possible LAST year... It would be a disappointment in 2025. If we get a 5nm Drake, it's this year/Nintendo's next Fiscal Year.

I mean... People said that 20mm Maxwell was a dissapointment in 2017...

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

This is how I would try to increase hardware sales for this upcoming fiscal year without Switch 2

-$50 price drop on OLED and V2, $30 for lite
-Introduce $169-199 console only switch
-Special Editions -Zelda, etc
-Release 2D Mario
-Tomadachi Switch release
-NintenPets cross platform release with mobile
-Donkey Kong Switch Release
-Prime Remake Release
+ everything already announced.

I don't know if this would be enough, but I guess we will see.

 

[Gay Bowser]

This whole situation still feels like a ridiculously cruel joke to me. It's just unfathomable that Nintendo basically just isn't moving on from the Switch at all. Like I'm waiting for someone to pinch me and I wake up and the Switch 2 is finally here with some what modern visuals...

This sort of feels like a bit of an overreaction, no? Like, the Switch is approaching six years old, not, like, nine. We’re not really in “unfathomable” “cruel joke” territory yet. ~7 years between generations is pretty normal these days, even if Nintendo has had ~6 year cycles for pre-HD systems like the DS, 3DS, and Wii.

Nintendo forecasting continued strong demand for the Switch in their 2023-2024 fiscal year doesn’t mean they’re not also going to launch the “Switch 2” later in 2024 (or potentially even earlier), which would put in roughly in line with all the other HD consoles (save the short-lived Wii U). They’re almost certainly intending to continue selling at least some of the current Switch products alongside the “Switch 2.”

The PS1 had its best sales year in 2000, as the PS2 was coming out. I think Nintendo’s goal now that they’re only fielding one platform is continued strong demand going into the successor, avoiding the sort of boom-bust loss of momentum that has plagued some of their console transitions in the past.

 

[Nyrnvs]

Can someone give a timeline or explanation for Switch T239 being pushed to early 2024/early 2025, that would lead folks to accept this speculated timeframe at face value. Again, neither yesterday's podcast nor Digital Foundry's article try to reconcile it with NVN2 or Linux data. One explanation could be that the manufacturing would be for some other T239 device slated for this year which hasn't been announced yet. Is that it ?

I'm gonna keep poking and prodding at this.

After listening to yesterdays podcast, the initial DF podcast where they shared the cancellation and Nate’s own replies here, I think they largely pan the Nvidia leaks and Linux commits. Why? I don’t know…perhaps they find it irrelevant to the conversation, don’t see any value or trust their “sources” over it.

Listening to the podcast yesterday where both T239, Linux and the Nvidia hack come up, all three of them have this annoyed, disinterested tone and few words are said on it. I, too, would love someone to take all the hard work of peeling the onion back that some have done in this thread (you know who you are) along with the current reporting and make sense of it all. There’s a lot of gaps in all the reporting out there and no one’s painted a complete picture yet.

Right now: cancelling a significantly more powerful device late in development, sitting on the chip for ~20 months, pulling dev kits last minute and then ramping up production of the old device amidst having to previously slash prior FY forecasts makes ZERO business sense to me or any sense at all.

 

[Hermii]

I mean... People said that 20mm Maxwell was a dissapointment in 2017...

It kinda was imo. Homebrew has proved how much better Mariko performs when it's not constrained by Nintendos clocks.

 

[Heron]

If there really was a Drake refresh cancelled, and they're still using that same Drake for Switch 2 (which I'm not sure I believe... but if it DID happen), then in my brain the following wildly speculative and unrealistic scenario almost makes sense:

• Nintendo releases the Switch, which they see as the start of an integrated, iPhone-esque, generational "device family". To them, the hybrid is just one form it can take.
• The initial plan to establish this "family of devices" is to at some stage release both a handheld only device (cheaper, appealing to kids & multi-user households), followed at some point by a home only device that can up-res games and improve performance (more expensive, for enthusiasts). This is a logical plan when you've just introduced a hybrid for the first time and have no idea how it will fare with either your traditional handheld or home console audience - and want to make sure you have both covered just in case. In fact, both options were high speculated upon by Nintendo fans at the time. (Remember the "super dock" speculation by some? Or the absolute certainty that a handheld only Switch could never exist under the hybrid-focused Switch brand by others?)
• The first part of the plan goes off without a hitch with the Switch Lite. It's the same SoC, so no issues there. They also release a more premium version of the base switch to maintain sales momentum of the core product - typical Nintendo tactics.
• But for the second part of the plan (the 4k-capable home console version for late 2022) they need to develop a new SoC. Nvidia has this new awesome DLSS tech that is literally perfect for the job, and together they come up with Drake, and start sending out dev kits based on the proposed / expected specs. NVidia works away at the chip, which we eventually learn of through leaks.
• The plan is still to not have generations per se - and thus they plan to introduce the home only version and then, two or three years later, to use it in a new hybrid Switch by die shrinking it or whatever tech wizardry needs to be done to make it draw less power / produce less heat.
• Two wrenches are thrown into the plan by Covid. One - the parts and labour issues. Two - the astonishing boost to sales momentum of the core switch.
• Also, third parties are saying that they want to make exclusives for the device. That's not really the plan - it's not a new gen, after all. They start to realize that positioning this device may get tricky. Worse, it may cause their primary product - the hybrid - to look outdated and not able to run all third party games, potentially harming sales.
• It also becomes apparent through sales data and switch usage data that a home-only refresh is neither needed for sales momentum nor particularly desired by more than a small amount of customers, and due to delays it would now release too late for when it would have sold best, and also too close to the Drake hybrid itself.
• So the home only version gets (rightfully) scrapped, and they skip straight to the next hybrid, which their market researchers are now telling them makes more sense to sell as a whole new generation. Given that, they decide to ride the base Switch for another year and a half (being 2023 and H1 2024) while they further develop Drake to be suitable as a portable SoC for the actual Switch 2 (new node?), and also develop the games required to properly launch a "new gen".

I know it's hard to imagine Nintendo developing a home-only Switch, but it's legit the only way I can imagine one Drake-based switch-family product being cancelled in favour of... another Drake-based switch family product coming two or more years later. And my point is that it wasn't that crazy to imagine back in 2018 or whenever these initial plans would have been put in place.

If your take-away is "a home-only Switch is a terrible idea", well, why else would Nintendo cancel a product that has devkits in the wild? That's unprecedented. It has to have been a terrible idea!

Now, I'm sure one of the leaks somewhere must have mentioned that this was a hybrid from the start but I thought I'd throw this fanfic out there anyway.

 

[Gay Bowser]

I mean... People said that 20mm Maxwell was a dissapointment in 2017...

People expecting Nintendo to use the absolute newest nodes as they become available are setting themselves up for disappointment. The newest nodes come with huge premiums in cost (and this is more true than ever) and they’re going to go into high-margin products like flagship phones that can absorb that cost. Even the enthusiast-grade home consoles weren’t using the latest nodes available at launch; they were (not coincidentally!) using the nodes Apple was moving away from that year, freeing up a bunch of capacity.

I’d expect the next Switch to be the same, with it releasing on a “5nm” class node (which includes “4nm” nodes, requisite reminder that these are all sort of bullshit marketing designations) after the flagship phone SoCs from that foundry move to “3nm” class nodes, freeing up a lot of cheaper capacity on the “5nm” family of nodes.

 

[Paul_Subsonic]

If what MVG/Nate/John are saying is true, I imagine what may have happened is that Drake was planned to be seriously downclocked and sold as a Pro by the end of 2022 with a successor in 2026-2027 using an enhanced Drake operating at higher capacity, but something happened to change Nintendo's mind (the Switch's continued momentum, issues with the chip, etc). They ended up scrapping the Pro while accelerating the schedule of the successor by 1-3 years to compensate, and the successor is now using the Drake chip meant for the Pro at higher clocks. I don't know how feasible this is irl, but it's the only way I can wrap my head around this

Once again new to this thread so I may be saying stupid stuff, but to my knowledge 2023 Drake is already clocked close to as low as it gets. It can't get seriously downclocked, because the chip just won't work below a certain point.

HOWEVER (the part where my stupid brain makes stupid guesses)
What I can imagine is that they planned a Pro version with a cut-down version. Feel free to correct me if I get the timeline wrong, but around 2020 Nintendo starts working with Nvidia for future Switch hardware, and they're attracted to DLSS. Lucky them, Nvidia has a mobile SoC with DLSS : Orin. Nintendo figures they can use a significantly cut-down 8nm Orin for the Pro, and a much less cut-down whatever-more-efficient-node for the next generation. Nintendo ends up canceling the very cut-down 8nm chip, and the leaks end up confusing the two products, leading to the confusion we're in right now, where it just seems like the info we have doesn't add up.

 

[LiC]

The Switch is still standing very strong. A stronger console would sell a lot for sure, but if they actually are planing a full scale successor for a longer time with potential new features on which they are actually adapting their games for, it makes sense to skip a mid gen refresh.

I feel like this comment encapsulates an issue with people (who already likely thought evidence for 2023 wasn't good or had a gut feeling 2024 was the year) just accepting Nate's story as "yeah a successor next year makes sense" and kind of ignoring all the specifics and implications of it.

Because, according to this story, they didn't "skip a mid gen refresh." They developed one for years, got third parties on board, and had a release window with games and exclusives in the works to come out for it. Then they cancelled (or massively changed/delayed/repositioned) it just a few months before it was supposed to release.

That story doesn't make sense. The technology said to be used for it doesn't make sense. The proposed explanations for what they could do now don't make sense. There is a lot more to it than just confirming your priors about Switch Pro not existing and new hardware happening in 2024+!

 

[Foltzie]

I want to keep seeing 2023 memes in 2024

I want to keep seeing 2022 memes in 2024

Bring back the console outside the window meme.

 

[boodream]

By all accounts Furukawa was being groomed as Iwata’s heir apparent much like Yamauchi did with Iwata. Iwata’s untimely death resulted in the board selecting Kimishima as a steadying hand before handing the reigns over. So no it was not just because they wanted to reassure the markets or have a more corporate profile.

If you believe him, Furukawa is very much influenced still by Iwata & Yamauchi

Furukawa reflects on Iwata and Yamauchi, his approach to leading Nintendo

Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa recently sat down with Nikkei to discuss his approach to leading the company through the current Switch era, as well as what influences past presidents like Satoru Iwata and Hiroshi Yamauchi had on him. He acknowledges that Iwata’s style is not something...

nintendoeverything.com

While he may change the company a bit, Furukawa still wants to preserve Nintendo going into the future.

I'm not saying that he's going to destroy the internal culture, since I'm precisely alsopointing out that he's spent his entire career at Nintendo.

On the other hand, the fact that he says he has respect for his predecessors (I don't see why he would say anything else about it) has nothing to do with the fact that as far as we know from public statements during the handover, the transition process leading up to Furukawa's consensual appointment was initiated by Kimishima and not by Iwata.

In fact, there was even a rumor from Eurogamer that put forward the name of the Level-5 boss as a possible personal choice of Iwata.

Nintendo's new boss faces the most pivotal year in the company's history

One of the first things that Tatsumi Kimishima, the newly-appointed CEO of Nintendo, said in his new role is that "it's…

www.eurogamer.net

Now, I'm not at all saying that it's necessarily a bad thing to have a profile like Furukawa, or even to make the necessary changes. It might even be a good thing, the right thing. I'm just saying that we'll have to wait for hard times to find out how he will react under the pressure of whatever shitty ideas ignorant "financial analysts" are advocating.

 

[Serif]

After listening to yesterdays podcast, the initial DF podcast where they shared the cancellation and Nate’s own replies here, I think they largely pan the Nvidia leaks and Linux commits. Why? I don’t know…perhaps they find it irrelevant to the conversation, don’t see any value or trust their “sources” over it.

There's just a prevalent lack of scrutiny I'm seeing where predictions from various folks, whether it be Nate, or Digital Foundry, or Nikkei's secondhand opinion piece, are accepted at face value because they're "in the know". Even though they've either all said it's their own speculation or gut feeling, or that they haven't been told much else from their own contacts, or that their predictions are based on something else like sales trajectories.
There's nothing wrong with any of them speculating, we in turn can dig a little deeper right?

At the very least, I'm glad this thread exists as the only place on the internet to meaningfully discuss this topic. Everywhere else, it's a lost cause.

 

[LiC]

I'm sure this has been asked before, and is a tiring question, but I don't follow the thread super closely and am not super tech knowledgeable, but how 100% sure are we that the T239 is the chip they're using? I know the whole NVN2 thing ties it to Nintendo because the Switch is NVN, but is there anything other than that? Like is it not possible they're using something we know nothing about that wasn't leaked?

Refer to the threadmark.

In a nutshell: If you look at the source code for NVN (the original version which is used in Switch games today), it is fully obvious that it's meant to run on Tegra X1 on the Switch. It demonstrates that thoroughly in terms of the code itself, and there are also comments from developers all over it that say so in plain English. Then, if you look at the source code for NVN2, all the same references are there, but TX1 has essentially been replaced with T239/GA10F.

And that's pretty much all that needs to be said about it. I didn't bother documenting all the examples in that threadmark, and there's other supporting evidence too, but just from this, the conclusion is inescapable.

 

[lexony]

I feel like this comment encapsulates an issue with people (who already likely thought evidence for 2023 wasn't good or had a gut feeling 2024 was the year) just accepting Nate's story as "yeah a successor next year makes sense" and kind of ignoring all the specifics and implications of it.

Because, according to this story, they didn't "skip a mid gen refresh." They developed one for years, got third parties on board, and had a release window with games and exclusives in the works to come out for it. Then they cancelled (or massively changed/delayed/repositioned) it just a few months before it was supposed to release.

That story doesn't make sense. The technology said to be used for it doesn't make sense. The proposed explanations for what they could do now don't make sense. There is a lot more to it than just confirming your priors about Switch Pro not existing and new hardware happening in 2024+!

I‘m not saying that they necessarily are skipping the Switch Drake. If anything I could see that there was a TX1+ at some point. I really don‘t know, it‘s hard to guess what exactly happened and I‘m aware that this comment or my theories I shared the past few day don‘t really add up. But so I haven‘t see any other theory so far, regardless if said poster has some inside information or not.

Also I feel like your conclusion is wrong, at least for me. I‘m someone who firmly believed until recently, that Switch Drake will release together with TOTK or at least in 2023. I just think with what we are hearing over the past weeks, that the speculations of some midgen refresh being cancelled and a new console planed for 2024 could make more sense. The world isn‘t always black and white. Maybe it‘s stupid, but to me it is impossible to have my opinion set in stone in this case.

 

[Concernt]

People expecting Nintendo to use the absolute newest nodes as they become available are setting themselves up for disappointment. The newest nodes come with huge premiums in cost (and this is more true than ever) and they’re going to go into high-margin products like flagship phones that can absorb that cost. Even the enthusiast-grade home consoles weren’t using the latest nodes available at launch; they were (not coincidentally!) using the nodes Apple was moving away from that year, freeing up a bunch of capacity.

I’d expect the next Switch to be the same, with it releasing on a “5nm” class node (which includes “4nm” nodes, requisite reminder that these are all sort of bullshit marketing designations) after the flagship phone SoCs from that foundry move to “3nm” class nodes, freeing up a lot of cheaper capacity on the “5nm” family of nodes.

As it happens that would be this year, with iPhone 14 Pro expected to be the last new iPhone on 4nm.

Interesting, huh?

 

[D36]

I'm back, what did I miss?

 

[Herb Alpert]

I'm back, what did I miss?

DonaldGloverWithPizzas.Gif

 

[Gay Bowser]

As it happens that would be this year, with iPhone 14 Pro expected to be the last new iPhone on 4nm.

Interesting, huh?

…right, which is why the absolute earliest I would expect a “5nm” or “4nm”-class chip to make it into a Nintendo product is either late 2023 or (more likely) 2024.

I was basically disagreeing with your assertion that “5nm Drake was possible LAST year.” It really wasn’t. Possible in the sense that 5nm chips technically existed and could have gone in a Switch 2 product if said product was priced like a flagship phone, I suppose. But not really practical in any meaningful way.

 

[LiC]

I‘m not saying that they necessarily are skipping the Switch Drake. If anything I could see that there was a TX1+ at some point. I really don‘t know it‘s hard to guess what exactly happened and I‘m aware that my theories that I shared the past few day don‘t really adds up. But so I haven‘t see any other theory so far, regardless of inside information or not.

Also I feel like your conclusion is wrong, ar least for me. I‘m someone who firmly believed until recently, that Switch Drake will release together with TOTK or at least in 2023. I just think with what we are hearing over the past weeks, that the speculations of some midgen refresh being cancelled and a new console planed for 2024 making more sense. The world isn‘t always black and white. Maybe it‘s stupid, but to me it is impossible to have my opinion set in stone.

Since your post was responding to someone who just said "I don't understand the cancellation," I assumed you were offering an interpretation of Nate's cancellation story specifically. Apologies if that's not the case. I agree that it wouldn't be surprising to find out that there was some kind of planned system that didn't materialize, at some point. I just don't find the current story about it happening last year digestible, much less the conclusions being drawn.

Like, in the summary post, there are basically two bullet points of claimed factual information: one for corroborating that the hardware was out there and had a certain release window, and another of hearing that it was no longer planned for that release window. Every other bullet point in there seems to be speculation, like @Serif has been saying. Even going from "no longer planned for that release window" to "cancelled" in the first place.

So that's why I feel like people who were always on a knife's edge between hardware happening "soon" or "not soon" are just tipping one way in response to any information or even speculation regardless of what it really says.

 

[ILikeFeet]

People expecting Nintendo to use the absolute newest nodes as they become available are setting themselves up for disappointment. The newest nodes come with huge premiums in cost (and this is more true than ever) and they’re going to go into high-margin products like flagship phones that can absorb that cost. Even the enthusiast-grade home consoles weren’t using the latest nodes available at launch; they were (not coincidentally!) using the nodes Apple was moving away from that year, freeing up a bunch of capacity.

I’d expect the next Switch to be the same, with it releasing on a “5nm” class node (which includes “4nm” nodes, requisite reminder that these are all sort of bullshit marketing designations) after the flagship phone SoCs from that foundry move to “3nm” class nodes, freeing up a lot of cheaper capacity on the “5nm” family of nodes.

Nintendo doesn't chose the node, Nvidia does. Nvidia buys the production allocation and then Nintendo purchases the finished product

 

[thegodsend]

Well, they are still having a solid run of games, so there is not such a software drop off.
The adaption rate of software is also better. and the eshop helps them keep customer buying software. so yeah, its not quite the same.
the wish for HD was also higher with general audiences compared to 4k.


the thing is, it is a really risky move. its kind of trying to edge it out as far as they can to maximize profits,
but with that they risk overextending it, missing the ideal cutoff point and having to battle for 1-2 years to get back into the seat.
Don't know, not the maximum profit but stable and safe long term income seems to be the better move for a company like nintendo?
And its not like there arent methods when the switch 2 releases to monetize the heck out of switch:
make it cheap, low entry point, let the budget conscious spend tons on indies, evergreens and titles that can be cross releases.

That all depends on their software pipeline, that we don't know. It might be even more risky to release but with TotK if there's nothing afterwards than launching in late 24 with Mario and a steady supply of first party releases in 25.

In the end software is the most important factor and was the biggest issue at the end of the Wii lifespan and Wii U (in addition to marketing for the latter) but as long as we don't have the full picture, we can't just say it's more or less risky to wait until next year or after. Especially not if the current platform still is healthy business for them, which it is.

 

[Kevin]

This sort of feels like a bit of an overreaction, no? Like, the Switch is approaching six years old, not, like, nine. We’re not really in “unfathomable” “cruel joke” territory yet. ~7 years between generations is pretty normal these days, even if Nintendo has had ~6 year cycles for pre-HD systems like the DS, 3DS, and Wii.

Nintendo forecasting continued strong demand for the Switch in their 2023-2024 fiscal year doesn’t mean they’re not also going to launch the “Switch 2” later in 2024 (or potentially even earlier), which would put in roughly in line with all the other HD consoles (save the short-lived Wii U). They’re almost certainly intending to continue selling at least some of the current Switch products alongside the “Switch 2.”

The PS1 had its best sales year in 2000, as the PS2 was coming out. I think Nintendo’s goal now that they’re only fielding one platform is continued strong demand going into the successor, avoiding the sort of boom-bust loss of momentum that has plagued some of their console transitions in the past.

I stand by my words. If we really are stuck waiting until around 2025 for new hardware then the already ancient hardware that was already basically a Wii U in specs will be 8 years old. The shit is old, games look and run like poop. I want something new. A lot of people do. Just look at all the articles and videos complaining about it daily. People want something new. I'm happy for you if you're one of those people who don't care about graphics or performance and are ok with Switch going on and on. That's not me.

 

[Gay Bowser]

Nintendo doesn't chose the node, Nvidia does. Nvidia buys the production allocation and then Nintendo purchases the finished product

Sure, but Nintendo does choose how much they’re willing to pay for the chips. And Nvidia knows how much Nintendo is willing to pay for the chips. And that figure is unlikely to allow for a flagship-smartphone-level chip on a cutting-edge node.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I'm not saying that he's going to destroy the internal culture, since I'm precisely alsopointing out that he's spent his entire career at Nintendo.

On the other hand, the fact that he says he has respect for his predecessors (I don't see why he would say anything else about it) has nothing to do with the fact that as far as we know from public statements during the handover, the transition process leading up to Furukawa's consensual appointment was initiated by Kimishima and not by Iwata.

In fact, there was even a rumor from Eurogamer that put forward the name of the Level-5 boss as a possible personal choice of Iwata.

Nintendo's new boss faces the most pivotal year in the company's history

One of the first things that Tatsumi Kimishima, the newly-appointed CEO of Nintendo, said in his new role is that "it's…

www.eurogamer.net

Now, I'm not at all saying that it's necessarily a bad thing to have a profile like Furukawa, or even to make the necessary changes. It might even be a good thing, the right thing. I'm just saying that we'll have to wait for hard times to find out how he will react under the pressure of whatever shitty ideas ignorant "financial analysts" are advocating.

First anyone who believes rumours of someone outside becoming CEO we’re fooling themselves. I doubt Hino was on the list.
Second Kimishima was acting temporary president. He stepped down pretty fast so they already had someone in mind. Iwata talked about a successor in mind & them not being ready. I believe it was Furukawa who was being groomed since his career mirrors that of Iwata’s when Yamauchi selected him. Even down to the same position before taking over as president. Regardless whether you choose to believe it or not doesn’t really matter.

I just think it foolish to wait for a pressure scenario that may or may not ever come. At a certain point they kinda just show you who they are.

 

[Deleted member 887]

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

I'm going to step in and say that Ampere's GPU architecture won't be 5 years old. It will be 7 years old, because Ampere inherits the same architecture in Turing. Just as Lovelace inherited it from Ampere.

Nvidia likes to pretend they wipe the slate clean every two years to deliver radical new performance, but most of the performance comes from node shrinks and the rest comes from tensor cores and RT, new technologies which are still maturing. Nintendo had the option to upgrade Tensor performance and Drake and didn't take it, probably because it was a waste of space and electricity at such a small size. In other words, Ampere actually scales down better than Lovelace does.

Blackwell may redesign the GPU's architectural core, but it won't be ready for an SOC in 2025. Nvidia has an SOC coming in 2025, and even they won't be basing it on Blackwell, because designing the GPU architecture and the SOC at the same time is nearly impossible. And we have no reason to believe Blackwell scales down any better than Lovelace does.

5nm might be cheaper in 2025 - Gods I hope so! - but many have already speculated that Drake is already on 5nm. If so, more power isn't really possible there either.

 

[Raccoon]

aren't phones the worst

stupid yearly pieces of shit are the problem

 

[kalosmani]

I stand by my words. If we really are stuck waiting until around 2025 for new hardware then the already ancient hardware that was already basically a Wii U in specs will be 8 years old. The shit is old, games look and run like poop. I want something new. A lot of people do. Just look at all the articles and videos complaining about it daily. People want something new. I'm happy for you if you're one of those people who don't care about graphics or performance and are ok with Switch going on and on. That's not me.

2025 is a bit too far but 2024 is perfectly normal. And it's unfair to say it's basically just a Wii U, making Wii U a full portable is a tech leap. I see Switch as a portable device and it's in line with portable generational jumps with 6-7 year lifecycle.

GB/GBC - portable NES
GBA - portable SNES/Genesis
DS - portable N64/PS1
3DS - portable GameCube/PS2
Switch - portable Wii U/PS3
Switch 2 - portable PS4

Indie games and PS3 ports have kept Switch going in terms of 3rd party support and this can continue into 2024. We also can get more games announced such as 2D Mario, 2D Zelda, more Wii U ports, Mario and Sonic Olympic game etc

 

[Deleted member 887]

Architecture wise, absolutely. I’m just trying to remember the calculations someone here did on the TFLOPs of Drake based on node size. I think 3nm put it in Series S territory. A feat that is super unlikely in 2023, but more feasible in 2025. I wish I could find that post. Was it something @oldpuck posted?

Oh hey, missed this! Just replied to @Sol - I'm not actually convinced that the architecture would be improved by 2025. Nvidia is going to be riding the architecture they designed in 2018 until at least 2024. We'll see what Blackwell looks like then, but it won't be ready to deployment in SOCs till 2026-2027 at the earliest.

I didn't do the TFLOP calculation on node size (I think it was Redd) but I'm not sure those numbers are accurate. They were put together before Orin released - with Orin out, we have some more information on power consumption, and the numbers don't tell a clear story. Either Drake has power savings well above Orin in it's design (and there is some evidence it does) or it's already on 5nm. Without knowing which one, there is no way to guess what a further node shrink down to 3nm would do.

However - I've actually come around to the idea that docked Drake would already be in Series S territory, once DLSS 2 is factored in. I've been doing some benchmarking and analysis and it actually works out. The place it falls apart is if Series S games start using FSR 2 aggressively. I haven't done the math to see how that balances out, but I actually think "Drake can do with temporal reconstruction anything that Series S can do without it" is probably true.

 

[Gay Bowser]

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

i have some news for you about some of nintendo’s past consoles

 

[Herb Alpert]

The Ampere GPU architecture will be 5 years old at that point.

Why would they use 5 year old tech for a new console in 2025? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It just doesn't make sense.

By spring 2025 they could release a massively more capable system than Drake.

First time, huh ?

 

[Erathix]

aren't phones the worst

stupid yearly pieces of shit are the problem

Introducing the Switch II, the Switch II S, the Switch 2 SL, the Switch 2 SLX, Switch: 2DSSXLL, Switch 2: Overclocked Edition......

Imagine, every year there's an ever increasing array of models, all as derivative and incremental as the last.

Oh and I forgot Switch Watch and Switch Watch Pro...for some reason, Nintendo be getting into the Smart Watch business now and yes Zelda is still winning awards somehow on it.

 

[Angel Whispers]

Analysis of the facts is not copium.

The fact is there has been continuous work on the T239 on the public Linux kernel. That it was leaked that T239 is for "Hovi", and that "Hovi" is Nintendo.

We can't extract a specific time from that, but we can talk probabilities.

Codename Hovi... It makes sense now. Drake wasn't cancelled... You just need to "Allow it to reintroduce itself".

 

[Raccoon]

i have some news for you about some of nintendo’s past consoles

the trouble is that past nintendo consoles had other things going for them

switch's usp is still being an approximate "home console on the go" which it gets further from every year. a switch that is worthless to third party developers day one would be very unfortunate indeed

 

[chocolate_supra]

aren't phones the worst

stupid yearly pieces of shit are the problem

yyyep
That's why I'm still using a Pixel 2 from 2017.

Hey I'm also still using my Erista Switch from 2017. I wonder if there's some connection there.

naaah, I'm just stubborn as hell

 

[Herb Alpert]

yyyep
That's why I'm still using a Pixel 2 from 2017.

Hey I'm also still using my Erista Switch from 2017. I wonder if there's some connection there.

naaah, I'm just stubborn as hell

My samsung s8 is still very capable, I wish I could have its battery changed for a reasonable price...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Oh great, more doomposting and jumping the gun. I don't see how this article disproves anything regarding next gen Switch this year (I'm assuming that's what everyone here is waffling about).

If Nintendo actually will forecast higher Switch sales rather than it being analyst misinterpretation, I'm pretty sure it would be a historical first for that to happen the year new hardware arrives. PS2 and GBA come close, with pretty minor dips the years PS3 and DS arrived.

CORRECTION: Game Boy just kept ramping up after Pokémon, so GB/C's best year was the one that ended with GBA showing up. The next year it dropped about 75%, though.

The genuine e-waste is the Black Friday Mario Kart 8 DX bundle that's still just a V1 Switch, that they've literally still been selling as recently as this past November. It will outlive me, lmao

It was only still a V1 back in 2019.

Calcio lives.

But I expect 99.99-129.99 with a Pro Controller, it's cheaper to produce than two Joy-Con

And for it, like Wii Mini and GBMicro before it, to come out AFTER Switch 2.

FWIW, I think I recently calculated that considering inflation, anything under $125 would be the cheapest they've ever sold new hardware that wasn't being cleared out.

 

[boodream]

First anyone who believes rumours of someone outside becoming CEO we’re fooling themselves. I doubt Hino was on the list.
Second Kimishima was acting temporary president. He stepped down pretty fast so they already had someone in mind. Iwata talked about a successor in mind & them not being ready. I believe it was Furukawa who was being groomed since his career mirrors that of Iwata’s when Yamauchi selected him. Even down to the same position before taking over as president. Regardless whether you choose to believe it or not doesn’t really matter.

I just think it foolish to wait for a pressure scenario that may or may not ever come. At a certain point they kinda just show you who they are.

I don't understand why you're talking about "choosing to believe", since what I say about Kimishima is backed up by his public statements about it (I've included a link from the WSJ that sources this). It's entirely possible that you're right about Furukawa, but the only source you bring to the table at this point is, precisely... "I believe".

It's not that I don't want Iwata to be involved in the choice of Furukawa, it's that I haven't found any information that would suggest that, while I have found some about Kimishima. By the way, regarding this "mirror career" story, he joined Nintendo's management when Kimishima arrived and absolutely not under Iwata's presidency.

There will be difficult moments and pressures, that's not an assumption either, that's just the normal life of any company. There are good times and bad times, inevitably. I'm just saying that it's not on a success, which he didn't even initiate, that you can get an idea of how "conservative" Furukawa is.

 

[DJBlitzkrieg]

Spoiler

Unlike in the past, even though Nintendo Switch has gone through five years since its launch, there is still a rich lineup of new titles to be released. The biggest reason for this is that, thanks to the smooth launch of Nintendo Switch itself, we have been able to concentrate our development resources on one platform.
On the other hand, looking back on past experiences of generational change such as the change from the Wii and Nintendo DS eras, we recognize that one of our tasks is ensuring the transition to future generations of hardware is as smooth as possible.
To that end, we are focusing on building long-term relationships with our consumers (through Nintendo Accounts). While continuing to release new Nintendo Switch software for consumers to enjoy, we aim to maintain relationships across hardware generations through services that utilize Nintendo Accounts and by providing opportunities for them to experience our IP through other non-gaming channels.

They want to avoid a Wii -> WiiU situation again yet they insist on ramping up production for a 6 years old system whose sales are already winding down, let's see how things pan out for the rest of the year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'll kindly thank AMC+ for not sending any more emails with subjects I'll absolutely misread.

 

[Instro]

If I was going to hazard a guess as to the reason for the alleged forecast increase for next FY, it would be that they are stuffing their production channels to pump out units they know won't be sold this coming year. An effort to build up stock ahead of switching production lines to the successor hardware. They'll be willing to eat costs on storing the units, so they can more readily satisfy demand while also producing their new unit.

Sort of a "the cupboards are bare" situation where they largely sold what they produced the last couple years, and now want an excess supply ahead of a hard shift to producing a different model. Upcoming fiscal briefings and GDC should be somewhat illuminating.

If they actually think they are going to sell more next FY, then someone at the company has lost it, or they are desperate to cover declines because the successor is not ready.

 

[RealUncleNintendo]

What’s going on in this thread…

 

[Kevin]

What’s going on in this thread…

We learned that the Nintendo Switch is a generational console.

 

[Hush]

Well one thing I can say is that the Switch is still going to be pushed when the Switch 2 arrives. Largely because I dont see Nintendo shifting to relying on a premium priced game console for sales without having a cheap entry point system especially in these economic times. With all the layoffs recently at big companies the Switch 2 could very well launch during a recession. So that could explain why the Switch is still being produced strongly even with the next Switch nearing closer

 

[Foltzie]

We learned that the Nintendo Switch is a generational console.

As in its going to be supported for an entire 30 year generation.

I look forward to Just Dance 2028 on the OG Switch.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I don't understand why you're talking about "choosing to believe", since what I say about Kimishima is backed up by his public statements about it (I've included a link from the WSJ that sources this). It's entirely possible that you're right about Furukawa, but the only source you bring to the table at this point is, precisely... "I believe".

It's not that I don't want Iwata to be involved in the choice of Furukawa, it's that I haven't found any information that would suggest that, while I have found some about Kimishima. By the way, regarding this "mirror career" story, he joined Nintendo's management when Kimishima arrived and absolutely not under Iwata's presidency.

There will be difficult moments and pressures, that's not an assumption either, that's just the normal life of any company. There are good times and bad times, inevitably. I'm just saying that it's not on a success, which he didn't even initiate, that you can get an idea of how "conservative" Furukawa is.

Your frankly never going to get a source for who Iwata wanted with the closest being his, “I have a successor in mind but they are not ready yet” comment which is very hard to find at this point. But if you pay attention it becomes obvious who that was.

After Iwata died they made Furukawa General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department and became president soon after Kimishima stepped down from the position. This position is the same one Iwata held & within a similar time frame of being elected. Iwata was dead so who knows if he would have done what we saw in 2016. It should be obvious as well that as acting interim president Kimishima should probably start getting a new board involved.

Considering Furukawa’s involvement with the Switch it would be false to say he didn’t initiate it nor set it to succeed. He’s already given enough evidence to how conservative he wants to be. I’m not sure waiting for pressures is gonna reveal anything new to people paying attention.