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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Taps sign that says “Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion”.
Speculation and Discussion is fine, being mad at Nintendo for potentially not releasing a console, they've never said a single thing about, till 2025 and expecting the absolute worst case scenarios should that happen, are a whole different ball park.

It's a video game console. You'll be fine if it doesn't come out till 2025.
As far as I'm concerned, there's no news. We already knew about a mid-gen refresh being shelved. The 2024-2025 timeframe in the podcast was them spitballing about hypothetical scenarios. The Nikkei article is also presenting speculation based on CY23 order volume.
Honestly to me, my gut feeling says 2024. It's said 2024 for awhile now. That's what I'm gonna go off of instead of losing it over speculation on top of speculation.

I don't ultimately care tho. I love the switch, so so long as the next console gets the same love from Nintendo all be happy with it be it a 2023, 2024, or 2025 system.
 


Have fun, y'all.

Nintendo has told suppliers and assembly partners it intends to churn out more Switch units in the fiscal year starting April, but has not yet communicated a precise target, the people said. It may revise down its plans later in the year if demand underwhelms.
That's pretty much a guarantee
 
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Or the next 2D Mario releases without a Switch 2 in fall 2023 as well as a Mario and Sonic Olympic game for fall 2023. Then in 2024 we have Pokémon remakes in Diamond and Pearl engine, 2D Zelda game, Tamodachi life sequel, Xenoblade X, Yoshi's Wooly World, Mario Basketball, Paper Mario Wii U port, Wii Fit successor and other smaller games then a Switch 2 launch with the next 3D Mario to launch in fall 2024 followed by a cross gen Metroid Prime 4 in early 2025, then a Mario Kart sometime in 2025.

For some reason I dont think the Switch is getting another 2D Mario, NSMBUD was essentially what MK8D was for 2D Marios on Switch and the other one, Super Mario Maker 2, didnt sell as well as anticipated. I personally dont see Nintendo releasing a new 2D Mario till next gen
 
Anyone have the text of the article? It's paywall'd.

Nintendo Co. plans to increase production of its six-year-old Switch console in the coming fiscal year after shipping roughly 21 million Switch consoles in the year ending March, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Kyoto-based company had lowered its sales forecast for the console to 19 million units in November because of component shortages, but is now convinced it can make more and demand remains strong, said the people, asking not to be named because the discussions aren’t public. The move to increase output is an unexpected measure at a late stage in the console’s lifecycle.

Nintendo has told suppliers and assembly partners it intends to churn out more Switch units in the fiscal year starting April, but has not yet communicated a precise target, the people said. It may revise down its plans later in the year if demand underwhelms.
Analyst expectations are for sales to diminish, however Nintendo’s plan suggests it sees sustained demand for at least another year. The console, whose price starts at $199.99, has been hampered more by supply issues than any demand slump, Nintendo executives have said.

“Sales in the recent holiday season were not that strong even with improved supply,” said Kenji Fukuyama, an analyst at UBS Securities. “People will soon start speculating about next-generation hardware and are likely to refrain from buying the old system. A slowdown in Switch sales momentum is unavoidable.”

A Nintendo spokesman declined to comment.
Switch console sales have historically been driven by the launch of marquee games, such as Animal Crossing: New Horizons during the pandemic, and Nintendo has several titles from blockbuster franchises like the Zelda series debuting in 2023.

Meeting Nintendo’s 19-million-unit sales target for this fiscal year and going above that in the next one would bring the Switch into the rarefied territory near 150 million lifetime sales — a mark surpassed only by Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation 2 among home consoles to date.

Semiconductor and component shortages have diminished across the electronics industry in recent months, with Sony executives expressing confidence that its PlayStation 5 console will be much more widely available in 2023 than previously.
Nintendo can grow its Switch sales in the coming year, especially if it gives them a boost with game-themed special editions of the console, said Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Toyo Securities. The company last year released a Splatoon 3 edition of its priciest Switch OLED model, decorating the hardware with illustrations from the popular third-person shooter and helping drive sales.

The company plans to release The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom — the highly-anticipated sequel to Breath of the Wild, a game that was synonymous with the Switch in its early days — in May. A Zelda-themed Switch would entice existing console owners to buy another unit, Yasuda said.

Hope this helps!
 
Excuse me for one second

Screams into the void inside my little cardboard box

Okay well now that that's over, May's not happening however I'm still calling that it will be announced at E3 and released by Holiday 2023. I'll only reach acceptance phase when I get enough concrete facts thrown at my face that this is 100% never happening this year.

I honestly don't believe this console will be released in some absurd timeframe like late 2024-25. By then the console as we currently understand it will be outdated that they may as well have waited to make it even more powerful and efficient and given us Drake as a mid-gen refresh ala Switch Pro.

If Nintendo made that mistake, they will put themselves in a position where after one or two years from release, Drake will be seen as limiting and weak still in the grand scheme of things, with third party support being reduced to Indies (which are great) and miracle ports of AAA titles, it will make it lose its magic and any impact it could've engrained had it released earlier and been seen as more of a substantial refresh. Exclusives will look incredible on it of course and help perpetuate it but that I'm not too certain that alone will be enough to help Drake keep up the momentum that the Switch has had.

I don't believe Nintendo will make that mistake, if they did, it will most likely cost them and you'd have people wishing for a hypothetical Switch 3 far too soon in the Drake's life span that's more capable. Especially when it comes to the fact that Valve will release a Steam Deck 2 that could throw a wrench into the perception of Switch 2 and the progress of handheld PC's as of late.

They have to get on top of the discussion sooner rather than later.
 
Anyone have the text of the article? It's paywall'd.
Nintendo Co. plans to increase production of its six-year-old Switch console in the coming fiscal year after shipping roughly 21 million Switch consoles in the year ending March, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Kyoto-based company had lowered its sales forecast for the console to 19 million units in November because of component shortages, but is now convinced it can make more and demand remains strong, said the people, asking not to be named because the discussions aren’t public. The move to increase output is an unexpected measure at a late stage in the console’s lifecycle.

Nintendo has told suppliers and assembly partners it intends to churn out more Switch units in the fiscal year starting April, but has not yet communicated a precise target, the people said. It may revise down its plans later in the year if demand underwhelms.

Analyst expectations are for sales to diminish, however Nintendo’s plan suggests it sees sustained demand for at least another year. The console, whose price starts at $199.99, has been hampered more by supply issues than any demand slump, Nintendo executives have said.

“Sales in the recent holiday season were not that strong even with improved supply,” said Kenji Fukuyama, an analyst at UBS Securities. “People will soon start speculating about next-generation hardware and are likely to refrain from buying the old system. A slowdown in Switch sales momentum is unavoidable.”

A Nintendo spokesman declined to comment.


Switch console sales have historically been driven by the launch of marquee games, such as Animal Crossing: New Horizons during the pandemic, and Nintendo has several titles from blockbuster franchises like the Zelda series debuting in 2023.

Meeting Nintendo’s 19-million-unit sales target for this fiscal year and going above that in the next one would bring the Switch into the rarefied territory near 150 million lifetime sales — a mark surpassed only by Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation 2 among home consoles to date.

Semiconductor and component shortages have diminished across the electronics industry in recent months, with Sony executives expressing confidence that its PlayStation 5 console will be much more widely available in 2023 than previously.

Nintendo can grow its Switch sales in the coming year, especially if it gives them a boost with game-themed special editions of the console, said Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Toyo Securities. The company last year released a Splatoon 3 edition of its priciest Switch OLED model, decorating the hardware with illustrations from the popular third-person shooter and helping drive sales.

The company plans to release The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom — the highly-anticipated sequel to Breath of the Wild, a game that was synonymous with the Switch in its early days — in May. A Zelda-themed Switch would entice existing console owners to buy another unit, Yasuda said.
Here you go
edit: beaten
 
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Dennard scaling died back in the 2000's. That scaling was basically 'perf keeps climbing while power draw stays suppressed'. Notice the climb in power draw for the stationary consoles since then? Yea...
Just because they're making big power suckers doesn't mean the other option doesn't exist. Series S seems to use a similar amount of power as Xbox One. Series X uses twice as much, but Google tells me it's still comparable to Xbox 360.
I'll get my conclusion out of the way first:
A PS6 sold in 2028 at $500 USD and the same size as the PS5 will, to the general audience, relative to the PS5 itself, appear less impressive than the PS5 appears relative to the PS4.

The primary reason I say that, of course, goes back to the foundries.
I think regardless of what the foundries pump out, diminishing returns is a thing. Standard TVs are probably never going to have another jump as noticeable to people as the one to 4K, at least until 120" screens become the norm. "Now our 4K60 games are 4K120 and have tracier lighting!" is not going to have the same impact.
 
To what are you referring? DF's earlier comments that we speculated to be about a Mariko-based chip? Because DF explicily says in the podcast that the thing that was cancelled was the 2023 DLSS device that could only have been using Drake.

I missed that as I was reading the transcript. I was referring to John's comment on DF's podcast about something 'at one point' being shelved, So if John is also talking about DLSS hardware, then consider me confused.

I'm having trouble believing Drake was 'cancelled'. Even if it's through some interpretation of 'We are calling this Switch II instead of Switch Plus" and devkits were recalled and replaced, I don't see that as a cancellation.
 
Welp, there's your justification for the "production overdrives" from recent factory uncle reports.

It's just good six-year ol' Switch.
 
“Sales in the recent holiday season were not that strong even with improved supply,” said Kenji Fukuyama, an analyst at UBS Securities. “People will soon start speculating about next-generation hardware and are likely to refrain from buying the old system. A slowdown in Switch sales momentum is unavoidable.”

A Nintendo spokesman declined to comment.
Aight.
 
Welp, there's your justification for the "production overdrives" from recent factory uncle reports.

It's just good six-year ol' Switch.

Hears shuffling from behind in the dark

Psst...it's me, your old friend, just good ol'' Switchy here, been 6 years now since we first met.

Whispers in your ear

Wanna see how things go when it hits 10?
 
Exactly, which is why the idea of revising a higher target than the current fiscal year seems pretty laughable to me. They had Splatoon 3 and a new Pokemon generation and still had momentum loss for hardware sales.

If the report is true I genuinely can't see them not revising downward some time next FY when reality hits.
 
For some reason I dont think the Switch is getting another 2D Mario, NSMBUD was essentially what MK8D was for 2D Marios on Switch and the other one, Super Mario Maker 2, didnt sell as well as anticipated. I personally dont see Nintendo releasing a new 2D Mario till next gen

I could see it not being a traditional 2D Mario or a sequel to NSMBUD. Perhaps a 2D Marioo successor to Mario Bros 2 USA. Or new gameplay concept with a hub world semi metroidvania style game. That also reminds me we didn't get a Switch Wario Land game. They can easily churn out cheap 2D games. They also re releasing Wii games with Kirby, perhaps more Wii remakes to pad out the library of games too.
 
Exactly, which is why the idea of revising a higher target than the current fiscal year seems pretty laughable to me. They had Splatoon 3 and a new Pokemon generation and still had momentum loss for hardware sales.
They must be really confident that TotK will drive more hardware sales than the higher selling Pokemon title, which I find... curious.
 
I feel Nintendo may be a bit overconfident with the current switch. We will see how aggressive they will be with this years line up soon enough.

From the looks of it they are going to ride this out and I have a feeling that software will be strong this year, but will having a great line up continue to push the switch to 20 plus million units a year?

I just hope they don’t push too many resources on switch and are left with nothing to push the switch successor.
 
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I missed that as I was reading the transcript. I was referring to John's comment on DF's podcast about something 'at one point' being shelved, So if John is also talking about DLSS hardware, then consider me confused.

I'm having trouble believing Drake was 'cancelled'. Even if it's through some interpretation of 'We are calling this Switch II instead of Switch Plus" and devkits were recalled and replaced, I don't see that as a cancellation.
I asked John if he believed the hardware discussed by myself and Bloomberg was the same device he had said was cancelled and he answers in the affirmative that the timelines match.
 
nothing on earth can drive switch demand

they've done everything they can

I assume they might believe Tears of the Kingdom will be enough alone to drive those sales figures...I really don't think so. Sure, you'll get some sales from a special edition OLED being released alongside it but otherwise I doubt it. Not even Pokémon could drive that demand.

The determination is impressive though, I'll give them that.
 
If they're reusing many of the same components for a successor, would these suppliers even know? Could be they're increasing overall production to have some successor units ready for this fy.
 
yeah nintendo breath of the wild again is just what you need to get new people to buy it, nice going

the OLED upgrade sales will be good with it but surely not that good
 


Have fun, y'all.

And?

Nintendo couldn't make as many Switches as they wanted to for more than a year, and they had to revise their forecast downward multiple times. Those supply-constrained conditions are now lifting per the article, in the same financial year that they're releasing a sequel to Breath of the Wild, on top of games we don't know about yet (despite what Chris Dring would have you believe). Therefore, their production forecast has increased. They think they will be able to sell more Switches than they did last year, so they are planning to produce that many. That's literally all this means.

How any of that means that new hardware can't be launched in this calendar year has yet to be explained.
 
nothing on earth can drive switch demand

they've done everything they can

Some ways to increase sales

They can release a new Mario game in the same year as the movie for marketing synergy.

Pokémon Let's Go sequel now with both Johto and Kanto

Wii Fit successor, Ring Fit did wellness

Tamadochi Life game, these sell alot surprisingly

Zelda TotK has yet to release so sales increase with that

Switch bundles e.g comes with 3 games for free

Switch price drop

New SKUs? Switch TV (not handheld) or Switch Micro (smaller than Lite, maybe clamshell design).
 
Define the word "summary"
Merriam-Webster: "covering the main points succinctly"

I think I did that for the most part, with relatively short sentences. And to be fair, I did say the summary was long and rough.

Maybe one day Nintendo can go with RISC V instead of ARM
I think that depends on when Nvidia shifts from Arm to RISC-V, assuming Nintendo continues partnering with Nvidia for the foreseeable future, which could take a long while, especially with Nvidia having paid $750 million for licencing Arm's IPs.
 
I could see it not being a traditional 2D Mario or a sequel to NSMBUD. Perhaps a 2D Marioo successor to Mario Bros 2 USA. Or new gameplay concept with a hub world semi metroidvania style game. That also reminds me we didn't get a Switch Wario Land game. They can easily churn out cheap 2D games. They also re releasing Wii games with Kirby, perhaps more Wii remakes to pad out the library of games too.

There are a lot of things they can do, yeah, but it just feels like demand for 2D Marios has been met on Switch and they wont really be exciting again till they are being touted for a new platform. Also remasters and ports are a good way of keeping the support going on Switch even when they have released the Switch 2. I am sure they want to keep both going for a while
 
Oh great, more doomposting and jumping the gun. I don't see how this article disproves anything regarding next gen Switch this year (I'm assuming that's what everyone here is waffling about).
 
yeah nintendo breath of the wild again is just what you need to get new people to buy it, nice going

the OLED upgrade sales will be good with it but surely not that good
How about we wait to see a real gameplay trailer for TotK before we just assume it’s “BOTW again”…

I think this (apparent) confidence in the game’s ability to drive HW sales by Nintendo speaks to the contrary.
 
Some ways to increase sales

They can release a new Mario game in the same year as the movie for marketing synergy.
maybe

Pokémon Let's Go sequel now with both Johto and Kanto
sequel

Wii Fit successor, Ring Fit did wellness
already covered

Tamadochi Life game, these sell alot surprisingly
*tomodachi and maybe? probably not

Zelda TotK has yet to release so sales increase with that
not happening

Switch bundles e.g comes with 3 games for free
haha maybe

Switch price drop
maybe yeah

New SKUs? Switch TV (not handheld) or Switch Micro (smaller than Lite, maybe clamshell design).
also maybe
 
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Oh great, more doomposting and jumping the gun. I don't see how this article disproves anything regarding next gen Switch this year (I'm assuming that's what everyone here is waffling about).
Waffling is really in right now. So much so Switch 2 will have a waffle maker in the dock.

Innovation at it's finest, thank you Nintendo.
 
I’m wondering how much the Mario Movie is factoring into Nintendo’s thinking here. Is there a chance they expect the movie to boost Switch demand?
 
How any of that means that new hardware can't be launched in this calendar year has yet to be explained.
Yeah, I am not seeing the mutual exclusivity here. If Switch Advance launches this holiday with a 3D Mario that would increase demand for Switch units across the board, including lower cost models. Before then I do think TotK and the Mario movie will be a 1-2 punch of boosting demand in the next few months.

Is it possible for their forecast to include sales of any device in the 'Switch' family, or are they not permitted to do that for a device that hasn't been announced yet?
 
There are a lot of things they can do, yeah, but it just feels like demand for 2D Marios has been met on Switch and they wont really be exciting again till they are being touted for a new platform. Also remasters and ports are a good way of keeping the support going on Switch even when they have released the Switch 2. I am sure they want to keep both going for a while

What can a 2D game bring on Switch 2 that can't be done on Switch 1? Why would a 2D Mario be more exciting on Switch 2 than in Switch 1. I understand for a 3D game like the next 3D Mario would be more exciting as the scope would be bigger, but for a 2D game I can't see what more a Switch 2 will deliver.
 
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They must be really confident that TotK will drive more hardware sales than the higher selling Pokemon title, which I find... curious.
Pokémon had no fewer than four (4) core series titles on the Switch prior to SV's release, in addition to a swath of spin-offs (Pokken, PMD, New Snap, Unite, Quest, Café). Plenty of points in previous years for fans to climb aboard. Zelda had BotW in 2017, followed by musous, a Link's Awakening remake, and a rhythm-based dungeon crawler. I think the idea is that the Switch has higher saturation among Pokémon's audience than TotK's.
 
And?

Nintendo couldn't make as many Switches as they wanted to for more than a year, and they had to revise their forecast downward multiple times. Those supply-constrained conditions are now lifting per the article, in the same financial year that they're releasing a sequel to Breath of the Wild, on top of games we don't know about yet (despite what Chris Dring would have you believe). Therefore, their production forecast has increased. They think they will be able to sell more Switches than they did last year, so they are planning to produce that many. That's literally all this means.

How any of that means that new hardware can't be launched in this calendar year has yet to be explained.
I think this actually points to a possible new hardware no?
Switch to grow again in sales is something difficult, and I think maybe unprecedented in the industry (maybe Gameboy with the pokémon phenomenon).
A growth in hardware sales today can only point to new hardware, whether it be a revision (PRO, Switch TV or Switch Micro), and who knows even the Switch 2.
I don't think what Mochizuki is citing is increased sales specifically for the Switch, but counting Nintendo's hardware division as a whole.
The only plausible explanation would be that they had high hopes that the Mario movie would put a damper on the sales declines.
 
How about we wait to see a real gameplay trailer for TotK before we just assume it’s “BOTW again”…
One of Nintendo's most talented teams, after 4-5 years of development, will plop a few islands and Nazca Lines in BotW's map, package it as a $60 sequel + $20 DLC and call it a day. Nintendo will rely on this glorified DLC to sell an ugly white and gold (or is it black and blue?) colored obsolete overpriced Switch OLED special edition and hahaha all the way to the bank.
 
Honestly if Nintendo is stupid enough to ramp up production of the current switch that is on them. They keep talking about supply being an issue, but the Switch has been easy enough to find so there is no missing demand that will suddenly show up if they make millions of extra units. They will just have millions of extra units in storage.

Just a General we plan to sell more hardware next year then the last though could point at a new release.
 
Can someone explain to me why this recent article is proof we won't get new hardware this year? Cuz right now, @LiC is the only one I can count on for reliable, non-reactionary takes. Then again, that might be MY confirmation bias speaking.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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