-
Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
- Pronouns
- She/They
As much as I'm starting to believe 2023 is no longer the year, I'm really not feeling this, I'm calling Holiday 2024. But if it is true... woof. Spending so long on and so much drama happening because of information so old that the device it was for got cancelled is something else
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Definitely fair. I'd hate to see baseless uncertainty cast on such important publications. Thank you for the reply
I would agree wih u if Animal Crossing wasn't delayed. If Pikmin will not be out in 2023 then it will be the same situation
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
There is no way you can have a game that sells 30+ million units and claim it’s NOT a system seller lol
Eclissi
Moblin
Can anyone give me an answer please?
Truno
Koopa
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nobody knows lol, we're at the dooming phase
There is one thing I want to point out
The devkit which is being called back, is rumored to be delivered to 3rd party as early as 2021. But no foundry can manufacture a chip that has such good performance at such low power consumption as the nvn2 test script suggests.
I guess Nintendo is doing a devkit refresh, replace the old one with the ones have the final version of SoC inside. So instead of showing the hardware being delayed, this might actually be a move implying the retail hardware is finalized.
Therefor the announcement is happening soon, because when the devs have the new machines they will know what is going on.
The devkit which is being called back, is rumored to be delivered to 3rd party as early as 2021. But no foundry can manufacture a chip that has such good performance at such low power consumption as the nvn2 test script suggests.
I guess Nintendo is doing a devkit refresh, replace the old one with the ones have the final version of SoC inside. So instead of showing the hardware being delayed, this might actually be a move implying the retail hardware is finalized.
Therefor the announcement is happening soon, because when the devs have the new machines they will know what is going on.
Eclissi
Moblin
I meant what scenario Nate's podcast throws us into
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Last edited:
The definition of a system seller is in the name. All that "masterpiece," stuff is 1. Irrelevant to non-enthusiasts who want to play a fun game and 2. Just arbitrary meanings to somehow disregard the selling power of Mario kart.
Believe whatever you want but the burden of proof is on you and there's nothing (concrete) to support what you're saying.
Last edited:
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
He mentioned in September that partners were being briefed as a response to Polygon, who said third parties were briefed on the Switch 2 strategy prior to September. I don't know what to make of it.
John Omaha
Moblin
This would essentially be playing with the roadmaps and financials of several dozen companies for the sake of punishing a few bad actors. If I was a third-party developer, I would think long and hard before doing business with Nintendo again if they pulled this nonsense.
Eclissi
Moblin
Thank you.
Therefore, I would say that the term "cancelled" is wrong, and that it is more correct to use the term "postponed". And what defined it as a refresh before and a new console now, if the SoC is the same?
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Yeah, I think this is the likely situation.
Nothing about a 2024/2025 gels with the actual hard facts we have about T239. This thing was fabricated last year. In all likelihood, dev kits are now equipped with.
All this pessimism is over speculation which while entertaining doesn't seem to have much basis in fact.
It doesn't change the fact that it costs money to store chips, there are opportunity costs to launching later than expected, and that this chip seems to have been manufactured already.
It's been nearly a year since this chip began fabrication.
I think we could be unknowingly about to dive into an announcement of some kind around the earning's report. To put it simply, there's nothing concrete to say we wouldn't, but there are things concrete to suggest we would.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
all of this would be explained by another product using it first
Certainly if they know a developer has been leaking, they might withhold devkits, but doing that to try to figure that out seems a bit extreme.
Just for fun, since the thread has turned a bit down beat, I'd just throw out these guesses for the next-hardware
- Summer (July/August) 2024 release, ideal because it doesn't interfere with holiday 2023 and lets them unveil in Feb/March without much fuss, early adopters get their units and then allows Nintendo to get a full restock in for the holiday 2024 sales.
- The name is Super Switch or Super Nintendo Switch.
- Drake 5nm, clocked pretty high, full generation hardware leap over the existing Switch, maybe some hardcore tech heads won't be happy because it's not absolutely bleeding edge, but it pumps out gorgeous visuals and more than good enough for Nintendo content and with DLSS a bunch of 3rd party content too.
- Mario Kart 9 + Zelda: BOTW + TOTK 4K Edition are launch titles, the Zelda dual pack has new gameplay DLC content. Metroid Prime 4 a few months post launch.
- Smash will be the holiday 2024, game will be a GaaS type title that adds content as time goes on but will still have a ton of characters to start and even a new 3rd party character or two to start. Game is loosely built upon the previous Smash game but new upgraded graphics, gameplay tweaks, new stages.
- Affordable VR is the new "gimmick" as a separate accessory. Nintendo put a lot into Labo VR, the new Switch will have its own VR headset which will be more of a cheaper experience than something like the PS5VR, but still good enough to get a good VR experience across (maybe PS4 VR quality). Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, and Zelda: BOTW/TOTK will have new VR modes, so will a new Pilotwings game. Headset is cheap (sub $189 with a game included). Nintendo reccomends shorter play sessions for VR (30-60 minutes).
- Street Fighter VI, Call of Duty, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Elden Ring port, RE4 Remake, Madden NFL are notable early wave 3rd party games.
- Summer (July/August) 2024 release, ideal because it doesn't interfere with holiday 2023 and lets them unveil in Feb/March without much fuss, early adopters get their units and then allows Nintendo to get a full restock in for the holiday 2024 sales.
- The name is Super Switch or Super Nintendo Switch.
- Drake 5nm, clocked pretty high, full generation hardware leap over the existing Switch, maybe some hardcore tech heads won't be happy because it's not absolutely bleeding edge, but it pumps out gorgeous visuals and more than good enough for Nintendo content and with DLSS a bunch of 3rd party content too.
- Mario Kart 9 + Zelda: BOTW + TOTK 4K Edition are launch titles, the Zelda dual pack has new gameplay DLC content. Metroid Prime 4 a few months post launch.
- Smash will be the holiday 2024, game will be a GaaS type title that adds content as time goes on but will still have a ton of characters to start and even a new 3rd party character or two to start. Game is loosely built upon the previous Smash game but new upgraded graphics, gameplay tweaks, new stages.
- Affordable VR is the new "gimmick" as a separate accessory. Nintendo put a lot into Labo VR, the new Switch will have its own VR headset which will be more of a cheaper experience than something like the PS5VR, but still good enough to get a good VR experience across (maybe PS4 VR quality). Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, and Zelda: BOTW/TOTK will have new VR modes, so will a new Pilotwings game. Headset is cheap (sub $189 with a game included). Nintendo reccomends shorter play sessions for VR (30-60 minutes).
- Street Fighter VI, Call of Duty, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Elden Ring port, RE4 Remake, Madden NFL are notable early wave 3rd party games.
Apopheniac
Monolith Soft action game truther
- Pronouns
- he/him/his
Sony's makin' a new portable. Door closed, window opened, mission accomplished
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Almost certainly so.
According to Nate, yes.
Leaked data would imply this, but it goes against what's being claimed.
Drake being used in a 2025 device doesn't make sense. A 2025 device that uses a brand new chip after cancelling Drake in 2022 also doesn't make sense.
We don't know what's going on.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Something doesn't add up. I am chalking this one down to mis communication.
Don't want to tread over points people have already made but there is no way Nvidia was deploying fresh code relating to NVN2 and T239 in February and then Nintendo pulls dev kits and cancels the device a month later. Then a month later there are Linux commits alluding to engineering samples? Plus further commits in September? Nvidia would be the first to know if Nintendo was cancelling anything so this time line doesn't add up.
So to me the Drake SoC has very little chance of being cancelled and we know it was being made for Nintendo.
Could Nvidia repurpose it? Sure but the only thing I can see such specialist hardware being used in is either a shield type switch device to compete in the handheld pc space or a new shield TV. First I don't see happening because of conflict with Nintendo and the latter seems overkill for a shield TV.
We know NVN2 has been worked on since 2019, with T239 being the target for it. That's a lot of R and D cost for Nintendo to just throw away, all of this will add to the cost of whatever final silicon they use, the r and d will be part of the price per unit.
The whole battery life issues part doesn't fly either, nvidia has some of the best engineers in the world, I would put money on them knowing down to the minute what the estimated battery life of this device would be, especially given the existence of Orin ahead of Drake.
The only thing I can think of that could have blind sided Nvidia is the crypto collapse, especially with the central exchanges now also collapsing. Nvidia was making bank from crypto mining and would have ordered foundry space well ahead of time, so the rumours of them facing fines for not utilising tsmc 4N due to low 40 series sales and pivoting Drakes design to use 4N as a deal to Nintendo, thus causing a delay, I could see that.
In reality though, I am taking this as a case of Chinese whispers, there's something just not right about this cancelled hardware rumour, given what we know factually from hard data.
Specifically what I think it could be:
Actual fact : Some dev kits got called back.
Source reports : OMG Dev kits got taken from us, Nintendo switch 2 cancelled.
Insiders add another layer of speculation on top of that and now here we are speculating on it.
It's all good if there is a delay though, I get to spend more time with you all <3
Don't want to tread over points people have already made but there is no way Nvidia was deploying fresh code relating to NVN2 and T239 in February and then Nintendo pulls dev kits and cancels the device a month later. Then a month later there are Linux commits alluding to engineering samples? Plus further commits in September? Nvidia would be the first to know if Nintendo was cancelling anything so this time line doesn't add up.
So to me the Drake SoC has very little chance of being cancelled and we know it was being made for Nintendo.
Could Nvidia repurpose it? Sure but the only thing I can see such specialist hardware being used in is either a shield type switch device to compete in the handheld pc space or a new shield TV. First I don't see happening because of conflict with Nintendo and the latter seems overkill for a shield TV.
We know NVN2 has been worked on since 2019, with T239 being the target for it. That's a lot of R and D cost for Nintendo to just throw away, all of this will add to the cost of whatever final silicon they use, the r and d will be part of the price per unit.
The whole battery life issues part doesn't fly either, nvidia has some of the best engineers in the world, I would put money on them knowing down to the minute what the estimated battery life of this device would be, especially given the existence of Orin ahead of Drake.
The only thing I can think of that could have blind sided Nvidia is the crypto collapse, especially with the central exchanges now also collapsing. Nvidia was making bank from crypto mining and would have ordered foundry space well ahead of time, so the rumours of them facing fines for not utilising tsmc 4N due to low 40 series sales and pivoting Drakes design to use 4N as a deal to Nintendo, thus causing a delay, I could see that.
In reality though, I am taking this as a case of Chinese whispers, there's something just not right about this cancelled hardware rumour, given what we know factually from hard data.
Specifically what I think it could be:
Actual fact : Some dev kits got called back.
Source reports : OMG Dev kits got taken from us, Nintendo switch 2 cancelled.
Insiders add another layer of speculation on top of that and now here we are speculating on it.
It's all good if there is a delay though, I get to spend more time with you all <3
Lancelot
Like Like
They're not...? Like, I've played all those franchises and love them since the Wii era, but they're not big in a console where every 1st party that is actually big reaches 20 million units in a regular basis. Those games literally aren't big in comparison, when the leakers mean "no big games", they mean juggernauts that can actually reach those numbers. Aka, no more Pokemon, Mario, Smash, Zelda, MK, whatever definition you have of a big release is incredibly subjective and completely ignores what it actually matters to companies in the end, sales.So Paper Mario and Metroid Dread aren't big games. Got it
(Some) Nintendo fans are quite something to satisfy...
There's much more than sales to define what a big game is. Metroid rarely sold a lot, yet it's absolutely a big deal in general. So much that Nintendo made a logo reveal which was talked about for month, and went as far as to make a すみません video to announce the reboot. Focusing on sales only is extremely shortsighted, and it's a good thing that Nintendo agrees with me and isn't doing that when promoting games.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah, which is why we were watching CES so hard this month. But no new products with it were revealed.
I was actually thinking this myself
YugamiSekai
T239 vs. Picross 4K
- Pronouns
- He/Him
H1 2023 until Late Feb.So are we now Team 2024 or Team 2025? Sound off below!
Aether
Tingle
...nice. can i have that? (except the BotW/TotK DLC bundle, would be tooo expensive =P)
What im not getting, why is everybody expecting MK9?
We just got a massive DLC for MK8 with countless new tracks.
This feels like a concession that MK9 wont be for a while, so have some new tracks for the now almost 8 year old game.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
You guys are the real heroes. Keep fighting the good fight. Maybe we all can will the Switch 2 into existence with our love lol.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
10k
Nintendo Switch RTX
- Pronouns
- He/Him
A) The original refresh or Switch Pro was the "Dane" chip that was replaced with Drake
B) This is the most likely scenario. Dane and Drake confused Nate and Bloomberg.
C) isn't how hardware manufacturing works. We know with the Nvidia leak and Linux L4T leak, physical hardware existed in April 2022 with the following specs being confirmed:
8 A78C CPU cores
12SMs Ampere (1536 CUDA, 12 RT, 48 Tensor)
DLSS 2.2 (as of Feb 2022)
You don't sit on a physically done chip for two years before manufacturing. It's coming sometime this year.
The math doesn't add up.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
What if Nintendo were close to nailing who the source of the dev kits leak was, so they told that one dev that the switch Pro was cancelled and took their dev kits and the Ninjas have now been dispatched after watching Nates pod cast?
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Count me in too!
- Pronouns
- He/Him
2023 baybeeeeSo are we now Team 2024 or Team 2025? Sound off below!
The info and dates from the Nvidia leak and Linux stuff is just way too compelling, and as many have said, this thing isn't gonna be produced and then secretly stockpiled for years. Something with that SoC must be coming.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
So if Drake is actually being repurposed for something coming in late 2024/2025 would that mean it's not gonna be any more powerful than if it released this year? Cause that would suuuuuuck.
D36
#WOHOYHASAWAKENED
- Pronouns
- He/Him
HERE HERE!!!!
(I did say I would lurk)
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
My only problem with the podcast, is that the past two years of speculation by the parties involved were heavily weighted by talks of devs with games developed for the new hardware targeting 2022 releases. If these are the sources being used, I would think there would be a lot more chatter about how they had to completely trash their plans/work. If they are holding off on the games they were developing and had plan to release last year…why would they do this if Nintendo came in, told them to disregard the devkits cause it’s not happening, and gave them no idea if/when a new model target will ever exist?
The whole story is what these devs have said, which I’m hearing too little of (unless I completely missed it and can be corrected on)
The whole story is what these devs have said, which I’m hearing too little of (unless I completely missed it and can be corrected on)
Mekanos
300 Years Of Gyudon
- Pronouns
- he/they
Q4 2024 at the absolute latest I have to think, but almost certainly not H1 2023.So are we now Team 2024 or Team 2025? Sound off below!
Heron
Koopa
The obvious answer to this is that devs were told to make the games cross-gen, so work on the games in question has continued for the original Switch with the higher-spec version either put on hold, or in continued development for a patch / re-release on the next Switch down the road.
Nothing has had to be cancelled per se.
Disorientator
Cappy
Are the references to T239 in this LINUX commit (from Oct 27th, 2022) old news?
Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Sorry if already discussed - searched but came up empty.
Can anything interesting (SoC capabilities-wise) be extrapolated from the them? (e.g. the "DisplayPort link rate" struct member)
Sorry if already discussed - searched but came up empty.
Last edited:
I'm pretty sure Nate himself claimed devs were porting exclusive titles not capable of running on the original Switch.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Yeah, and the 2019 Nvidia Shield with the Tegra X1+ was unveiled after Nintendo released the Lite and v2 Switch. It's possible there's some kind of agreement between Nvidia and Nintendo regarding release timing.Yeah, which is why we were watching CES so hard this month. But no new products with it were revealed.
A T239 equipped Shield TV would be a big upgrade and a (somewhat) big deal and I would have expected a reveal at CES. It would make more sense to me if both Switch T239 and Shield TV T239 were released close to each other and shared production lines, and Shield TV chips were binned Switch 2 ones.
I also think T239 is overkill for a streaming box and the motivation behind a T239 Shield TV would be cost savings for both companies.
There were reports of Switch 2 exclusives iirc
Last edited:
Cackletta5
Cappy
- Pronouns
- she/her
So you don’t want people to speculate on this site? Or is speculation only accepted if it’s positive?
Also, I hope you didn’t ask people to wait for the Direct in June last year. Or throughout 2020. Sometimes they don’t happen. Sometimes they don’t have a lot new announcements.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- He/him
Yes I can lol.
My friends and I all LOVE Mario Kart, and even everyone has a copy of the game, but we all bought the Switch either because of Zelda, or Mario, or Pokemon, or the full suite of Nintendo games.
If you do the math, the best-selling game among us is Mario Kart, and in a way it did influence the acquisition of a Switch (and other Nintendo consoles), but the main reason for none of us was Mario Kart.
I know this is not a very scientific parameter, but the same MK8 which is the Switch's best selling game, was originally released on the Wii U which is just the most failed console in Nintendo's history.
Mario Kart in my opinion is the game that everyone who owns a Nintendo console buys, but it is not the main motivator for most of these people.
Awesomegames23
Irony
- Pronouns
- (He/Him)
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Not all of it, nor does that product exist, that we know of. That seems a little like grasping at straws.
Last edited:
