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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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neon said:
Switch release date was 3ish years from first Maxwell arch. Drake would be FIVE. Performance is far more relevent to consumers nowadays then 2017, it would be stupid to have a bigger gap than then.
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When you put it that way, sure. I was thinking more about where it stands compared to other console hardware.

The bolded is a funny thing to say when the Switch was still topping the charts as of 2022.
 
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Eos said:
It wouldn't separate anything. The chip for this Home Switch would be the same chip as the next Switch 2 in 2025. The only difference would be the price of the console and the die. But the frequency would be the same as to maintain backwards compatibility.
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It would absolutely separate them, you literally said this is to not affect Switch's sales. You'd have to still have 2 different groups, one taking care of the original Switch and one for the home Switch for the next 2 years.
 
Coco said:
It would absolutely separate them, you literally said this is to not affect Switch's sales. You'd have to still have 2 different groups, one taking care of the original Switch and one for the home Switch for the next 2 years.
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isn't that just crossgen lol
 
Lancelot said:
The best selling game on Switch didn't even got past 5 million, that's really not big at all. The numbers are there, what you think of big it actually isn't in numbers.
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So Paper Mario and Metroid Dread aren't big games. Got it 👍🏾

(Some) Nintendo fans are quite something to satisfy...

There's much more than sales to define what a big game is. Metroid rarely sold a lot, yet it's absolutely a big deal in general. So much that Nintendo made a logo reveal which was talked about for month, and went as far as to make a すみません video to announce the reboot. Focusing on sales only is extremely shortsighted, and it's a good thing that Nintendo agrees with me and isn't doing that when promoting games.
 
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Boxle said:
In the podcast they touch on this, and say it isn't uncommon for a dev kit to be pulled and redistributed if the specs changed and it ended up being more capable or different in some way.

The whole idea behind this isn't that Drake couldn't be used, it's that something about Drake changed enough to warrant a delay and 2023 is now off the table. For how long, we don't know, could be early 2024, could be early 2025.
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Sure, but I believe changing out dev kits like that is normally a short turnaround. I could be totally wrong there, but I don't think I've heard of anything like this before. Being pulled for 6+ months with seemingly no word on what's next would to me indicate that it's a large change, so one would assume that Drake is no longer be used at all at that point. If they were going to a smaller node, but same architecture, I don't think they would have pulled dev kits for this long at this point.
 
Hush said:
AC and MK9 as the main attractions wouldn´t scratch the itch that 3D Mario and Zelda do for early adopters. At least one of them has to be there in the first year, something that I believe 3D Marios have nearly always done for new Nintendo platforms.
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We could always just get a 3D Mario/Zelda remake instead to play off of people's nostalgia.
 
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Home console only is actual doomposting. Nintendo can play a 2025 hardware release fine, releasing a home console with the promise of a handheld later is real Nintendoomed hours. That is legit, honest to goodness Wii U redux
 
Lancelot said:
The best selling game on Switch didn't even got past 5 million, that's really not big at all. The numbers are there, what you think of big it actually isn't in numbers.
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5 million copies sold is more than almost every classic God of War game.
 
D36 said:
Not to be that guy, but aren't we getting way ahead of ourselves over what is essentially speculation? I don't think we should be putting so much stock into this, especially with what we know so far. But anyway, Imma bounce for the day, maybe I'll lurk every once in a while, but I'm not jiving with all of the pessimism and confirmation bias around here. Peace ✌️
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The truth is that what was in the video is being taken too far, harmless speculation (in fact, if I remember correctly, the video mentions the possibility that it will still come out in 2023, since they emphasize that they don't know anything , and they're just speculating), with, again, a wave of doomed, shitpost, and "gotchas" that isn't fun: it's awkward and annoying.

So I'm also leaving the thread (and also the Nintendo Direct thread since the negativity has moved there) until things wind down.


By the way, I'll let you know for the last time, the dates are speculation and taking it as a truth, an affirmation or a leak is not good and it means falling into those problems of the past.
 
neon said:
I've never known someone who bought a system for mario kart. Sure its almost always a given when they get their hands on it but I don't think it sells systems itself.
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i bought a wii u for MK8 after playing it at a friends place...
(under the assumption that other good games WILL come, but still...oh, and it had a free game download with it, i chose pikmin 3)
Hush said:
And then what? Zelda and Mario would be in early development still, Smash Bros is a big question mark as a whole. I dont think any smaller series can do the heavy lifting these series do which is why they are almost certainly being positioned for the Switch 2 at this point
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Pokemon? SV where 2022, by their routine the next generation would be 2025...
 
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LukasManak22 said:
So after all of this. Will Switch surpass DS or PS2 numbers?
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Yes. But it would even if Switch 2 was 2023 and we applied the exact same drop that happened with Wii or PS4.
Eclissi said:
I'm puzzled...
if the new console comes out in 2 years, what will Nintendo cover this time frame with? Mario 3D? MP4?, MK9? Ok, but... if these rounds burn, what will they be firing with next gen?
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I think it can come in late 2024 alongside a cross gen Metroid Prime 4 and do completely fine. Mario Kart Next is the way they can go if they want to release it in 2025. Absolutely better than any possible game.

Now, between late 2023-early 2025 I was predicting cross gen games, but if Drake comes so late, I think we'll see those games coming to Switch and being enhanced for Drake or receiving deluxe editions:
  • Super Mario 3D Next(I don't see a scenario where they'd sit on this game for too long after it's completed - we know that its current form is in development since at least 2019, it can be holiday 2024 cross gen tho);
  • Metroid Prime 4 I believe is cross gen, but if Drake is 2025, that's gonna be Switch holiday game alongside Pokémon remakes (2021 of BDSP and Dread again);
  • Donkey Kong: in development since mid/late 2020 per hirings, probably ends up being 2024. Cross gen if Drake is out, current Switch with later enhancements for Drake if it's not;
  • ARMS 2: I believe there can be another game that Yabuki's team has been working alongside Tour and Booster Course Pass, to me that one makes the most sense, while they do pre-production of the next gen Mario Kart;
  • a bunch of remasters: Metroid Prime Remake, Baiten Kaitos, F-Zero GX, Twilight Princess HD+Wind Waker HD (2024 or later), Kid Icarus Uprising, Xenoblade Chronicles X
  • Mario Party probably lands in 2024, it's been awhile since the last 2D Zelda, action game by Monolith Soft is apparently still coming, Luigi's Mansion 4 might be ready by late 2024/2025 and end up as another cross gen
  • Pokémon stuff, would be coming to current Switch regardless of when Drake was hitting.

kvetcha said:
If nothing is planned until '24-'25, Nintendo's empty-looking 2023 is even more confusing.
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I don't see how 2023 is empty looking while having the best H1 ever, and we don't even know what's coming in June and April.
Every year is empty looking even until E3 sometimes (we didn't know about Metroid Dread, Mario Party Superstars, Wario Ware until E3 2021), let alone before the first Direct of the year.
Also it isn't of great interest for Nintendo to announce like a bunch of holiday season games when they have a Zelda game coming in May.

Lancelot said:
The best selling game on Switch didn't even got past 5 million, that's really not big at all. The numbers are there, what you think of big it actually isn't in numbers.
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Doesn't mean it isn't big in terms of development resources and marketing. Also, 5 million is what some AAA games sell and makes their developers happy. Having a constant flow of 1-4 million releases like Metroid, Fire Emblem, Kirby(which jumped to another league now), Musous, etc is just as important for Nintendo as having a Zelda game that sells insane numbers every 6 years.
Hush said:
But then what do they launch the Switch 2 with? You release Odyssey 2 now, then you will have the first real Switch 2 3D Mario at least 4-5 years later
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3D World came out rather quickly after Galaxy 2 and 3D Land tho.
I think they can release a new 3D Mario on Switch this year and have some kind of enhanced version of it for Drake - I mean it worked for Mario Kart.
I expect Nintendo to maybe take a step back on the ambition of 3D Zelda and 3D Mario, maybe release another linear entry so it can be done faster.

Instro said:
I can't imagine that considering their original forecast for this FY was 21m, and they had to revise down to 19m. Hard to imagine a forecast above ~16m for next FY.
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They can release another budget model this year tho, like a TV only Switch that will surely also have its appeal, or an OLED Lite. And also who knows what they have for the holidays or Q1 2024. They might have a 3D Mario. Or maybe they reinvented 2D Mario and ride of the movie hype and it sees NSMB Wii boost level of madness.
Sin Drive said:
And again, I don't see how you'd get that assertion when you look at the sales and how they spike with new a Mario Kart. There's no real reason to believe this.

Edit: What numbers would Mario kart have to be at for it to be considered a "system seller,"?
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Yeah, it's literally the best selling game Wii U, 3DS and Switch, and the best selling non-bundled game of Wii too lol.
I remember when Mario Kart 8 came out and it made even Wii U sell finely, there were a lot of brighter articles and such, 2014 was the year of hope lol.
Also the black Friday bundles with MK8DX have a reason to use that game.
 
Coco said:
It would absolutely separate them, you literally said this is to not affect Switch's sales. You'd have to still have 2 different groups, one taking care of the original Switch and one for the home Switch for the next 2 years.
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That would happen anyway with a hydrid Switch. It wouldn't be different. Eventually they will have to work with 2 different groups until they abandon the current Switch.

But what I mean is they will stop when the Switch 2 (hybrid) comes out in 2025. So first they release the home console, and a few years after they release the hybrid version and stop working with the intergenerational games.

If the release now the hybrid version now, the would have to work with both hardwares because the won't abandon the 100 millions of users from the current Switch.
 
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Raccoon said:
what we should have seen coming is @Magic-Man celebrating bad news
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I don’t understand why he’s talking like that. People are using the rumors and speculating. I don’t see any issue with anyone thinking a new system was coming this year. It’s not anyone’s fault nintendo changes plans. These people be celebrating Nintendo delaying things so they can tell everyone “how right they were”
 
Bosintang said:
I edited my message. If we go by sales only, then Metroid Prime 4 isn't a big game. And we can all agree that it isn't true, I hope.
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Why does Metroid always get asterisks to explain its somehow a “big” franchise despite historically selling less than Nintendo’s other flagship franchises? I see this happen all the time and it’s truly puzzling.

I think Prime 4 will post the biggest numbers in series history, unless it’s an absolute dumpster fire. It’s all relative though. I do wonder if it can expand enough to keep up with the demanding budget these games will require to keep getting made.
 
To be fair, we don’t know for sure that Nintendo changed plans, through rumours we were told a new console was coming and then cancelled. We’ve not had any official confirmation that this is 100% fact
 
John Omaha said:
Why not? This would be more or less in line with the Switch. I don't think Nintendo cares about being 'late to the party' or whatever. If waiting makes the SoC cheaper to manufacture and more power-efficient, that's probably even better as far as they're concerned.
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Tegra X1 was almost 2 years old at Switch launch, Drake will be almost 3, when Switch was released Maxwell was a late gen compared to NVidia GPUs, by 2025 Ampere will probably be 2.
Does anyone really imagine an Ampere chip being released in 2025, when it's ready TODAY?
If Drake isn't cutting edge techonology even today, it would almost be old fashioned in 2025.

And why not launch?
Chip shortage: It's getting closer and closer to the end, and it doesn't stop 20M of Switches from being produced without problems today.
Price: If the problem would be the price, then launch this year and then cut it, early adopters will buy it anyway.
Battery: it makes no sense for Nvidia to spend years producing an exclusive chip that doesn't meet Nintendo's requirements, anyway launches now and shrinks the node in 2025.
 
I freely admit to my own confirmation bias and stubbornness re: desire for new hardware in 2023/2024. But putting that and the recent insider / reporting talk aside for a second, just reviewing Dakhil's summary in his wonderful OP and the various threadmarks (disclaimer: I don't really have a personal stake in this... I'm happy with my current Switch and find this a good mental exercise):
  • There has been movement on the development side regarding NVN2 and Drake with NVN2 specific work dating to February 2022, March 2022 commits related to a file decompression engine which we know from LinkedIn is for games and various other clues from Linux commits / LinkedIn indicating T239 exists as actual silicon with the latest in September.
    • These development bits have been my strongest reason for believing in a late 2023/early 2024 launch for Switch T239. Nvidia hasn't announced a new Shield TV at CES and we've settled pages ago that they're unlikely to use it for automotive purposes
  • If T239 is ready, then why would Nintendo sit on Drake?
    • A node change? But wouldn't they have known from computed estimates what the actual vs. desired power consumption at 8nm was? And more than a few folks have calculated in this thread that 8nm Drake would still be a sizeable upgrade and could fit in a Switch sized device, albeit a tight fit and not great battery.
    • Some other tech issue like implementing translation BC, raytracing power consumption, DLSS performance, etc? I assume that's what they've been trying to accomplish in the last 2-3 years, in which case I don't think they'd move onto creating actual silicon if the SoC wasn't ready for its target customer yet.
    • Waiting for Switch sales to drop off a cliff? As it has been said before, doesn't seem like a good idea. And sales are already dropping year on year.
    • Either way, a delay is not a cancellation - it's a delay. And I'm not sure how far this delay could take them if all they're doing is shifting nodes and if they've already secured production capacity years in advance.
    • The above are the reasons why I'm skeptical of Drake being delayed to early 2025. Perhaps Drake has already been delayed to early 2024, and that's what the 'no revision in 2023' means.
  • I can believe that early 4K Switch devkits were approximations of target hardware, and that once real silicon was available, they were redistributed. This doesn't seem like a cancellation to me.
    • I still think the mid-gen refresh that was canned was experiments with an upclocked Mariko, which makes sense for a Switch Pro.
  • Alternatively, Nintendo straight up cancelled Drake and recalled devkits with no replacement. I feel like this would be a much bigger story, with frustrated devs speaking to Bloomberg et al., NDAs be damned.
    • In that case they would have to start over and use a different Tegra SoC as a base. Not from scratch necessarily, but still requiring months of development and testing. In this scenario I wouldn't even guess early 2025.
    • Having trouble thinking of a good reason to outright scrap Drake.
None of this is saying I think a Switch 2 release - T239 or not - in 2025 is impossible, I'm just trying to weigh probabilities here because that's all I can do and all I've ever been doing. I never thought my belief in a H2 2023/ H1 2024 release was wishful thinking.
 
Mekanos said:
Why does Metroid always get asterisks to explain its somehow a “big” franchise despite historically selling less than Nintendo’s other flagship franchises? I see this happen all the time and it’s truly puzzling.

I think Prime 4 will post the biggest numbers in series history, unless it’s an absolute dumpster fire. It’s all relative though. I do wonder if it can expand enough to keep up with the demanding budget these games will require to keep getting made.
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The combined sales of the Metroid prime series is less than 8 millions. Yet, Nintendo absolutely views this series as big and heavily invest in it. Because they are smart enough to know that sales don't tell the whole story.
Same goes for Fire Emblem which is pushed in Smash, through spin offs, mobile game and so on. Fire Emblem is big. And 2023 sounds great so far.
Something like Xenoblade, on the other hand, isn't there yet, though Nintendo tries their best to make it happen.
 
Ojoloco said:
The truth is that what was in the video is being taken too far, harmless speculation (in fact, if I remember correctly, the video mentions the possibility that it will still come out in 2023, since they emphasize that they don't know anything , and they're just speculating), with, again, a wave of doomed, shitpost, and "gotchas" that isn't fun: it's awkward and annoying.

So I'm also leaving the thread (and also the Nintendo Direct thread since the negativity has moved there) until things wind down.


By the way, I'll let you know for the last time, the dates are speculation and taking it as a truth, an affirmation or a leak is not good and it means falling into those problems of the past.
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yeah, i still see a reasonable case that it will be a holiday release, and we will know more by 10.02
people just want somebody to call the shots whats the "real/reasonable" expectation, and nate had that role for the longest part.
thats why many of the people here just accept their speculation as the "right" expectation.
 
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Switch has a shot at being best selling console of all time if late 2024/early 2025 holds up. It should already be at 120 million and 2023-2024 should net it another 30 million. After that it's just legging it out as the secondary budget option. For reference, 3DS did almost 9 million post-Switch.
 
And here I was wanting new hardware since 2019 for the release of Dragon Quest... pain.

The good news though is we have maybe two more years of this speculation thread lol.

Personally Drake only being for a revision and being cancelled this year whilst Nintendo work on something different for 2025 is making a lot of sense to me. No way they have this chip just sitting around for years, right?
 
Two week threadban for ignoring the staff post. - Red Monster, Derachi, Josh5890
Here's the deal: either Nate Drake bullshitted about the dev kits being in the hands on developers since 2020, or he's bullshitting today about a relatively imminent hardware being pulled by Nintendo.*

Nintendo may not build their entire strategy around third parties, but they absolutely count nevertheless and you don't tell people who've been working for 1 or 2 years on your future hardware that plans have changed and they can go suck an ice cube to feel better.

*I vote both.
 
I don't really think there's a reason for this thread at this point. Maybe we get through this current wave brought on by Nate but then maybe it deserves to be locked until a new substantial report in the future. I haven't seen the point of it the last few weeks because it was becoming pretty clear nothing was happening in in the 1st half. Everything was just circle-jerking, confirmation bias and toxicity. Now it's just, what? The last one lol? It sure seems like that. I know this is a big thread and whatnot but the toxicity and whatnot that has come from it wasn't worth it.

Magic-Man said:
People on this forum really overestimate how much the public knows about backwards compatibility. Nintendo isn't going to continue supporting games on what is essentially a dead system, especially not this many of them. It would be pointless.


A) I'm not celebrating
B) It's not bad news
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that's subjective though. I'll manage either way but for some they are getting tired with how the switch handicaps games. And that's objectively speaking.
Also, you ARE celebrating and kind of just being rude about it, and that's me being generous. Reading your comment sounds like you are calling people stupid for not thinking a new switch was coming in late 2024/early 2025. That's absurd.
neon said:
I've never known someone who bought a system for mario kart. Sure its almost always a given when they get their hands on it but I don't think it sells systems itself.
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Families haha.
Bosintang said:
Here's the deal: either Nate Drake bullshitted about the dev kits being in the hands on developers since 2020, or he's bullshitting today about a relatively imminent hardware being pulled by Nintendo.*

Nintendo may not build their entire strategy around third parties, but they absolutely count nevertheless and you don't tell people who've been working for 1 or 2 years on your future hardware that plans have changed and they can go suck an ice cube to feel better.

*I vote both.
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Here's another option; you know nothing.
 
Kevin said:
Nintendo would need one hell of a lineup in 2023 to even entertain the idea of 20m units sold at this point and the announced titles we have not are definitely not enough. Overall it's a lot less titles then we got last year though I obviously assume more games will be announced at the next Direct.
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Even a hell of a lineup wouldn't be enough to do it. Here's Switch's holiday sales in Japan every year thus far (counted as the last four weeks of the year from Famitsu data):

2017 - 842,800
2018 - 1,051,300
2019 - 950,900
2020 - 975,800
2021 - 770,100
2022 - 647,100

In September 2022, Splatoon 3 released and broke the record for best launch sales in Japanese history. In November, Pokemon Scarlet and Violet released, and proceeded to break the record again. Yet the Switch went on to have its worst holiday ever in terms of hardware sales, down 16% year-on-year and down 38% from peak. In terms of other regions, in Europe hardware sales in 2022 overall were down 15% YoY, and although I can't find anything specific for North America, I believe hardware was similarly down YoY there.

I have no doubt that Switch software could have a very good year next FY, and that Nintendo would still be very profitable (albeit a bit less so than this FY), but Switch hardware very much seems to be hitting saturation point, and software won't do much to change that. A 15m hardware projection seems more realistic, and given Nintendo tends to lowball their hardware projections, we could see 14m or below. Very solid for a console entering its seventh year on the market, but age catches up to us all. Conceivably they could resort to price cuts to prop up hardware sales but (a) I'm not sure how much of a different it would make and (b) I don't think Nintendo wants to cut Switch's price, both because they'll want to keep their healthy profit margin, but also because they'll want to maintain the perceived value of the hardware.
 
Ojoloco said:
The truth is that what was in the video is being taken too far, harmless speculation (in fact, if I remember correctly, the video mentions the possibility that it will still come out in 2023, since they emphasize that they don't know anything , and they're just speculating), with, again, a wave of doomed, shitpost, and "gotchas" that isn't fun: it's awkward and annoying.
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To add to this, we should take no piece of info: speculation from DF/Nate/Bloomberg, LinkedIn resumes, GitHub commits, Nvidia docs, code snippets etc. at face value, outside of an official announcement from Nintendo. We should interrogate i.e. question, poke, prod and exercise skepticism (not literally interrogate in a confrontational way) all of this info.

This is a good thing. How many times has something asked "are we sure NVN2 is for Nintendo?" and a comprehensive answer given. Drawing conclusions, even if they seem reasonable, could lead to misinformation, so it's important to discern what we actually know and admit what we don't. We were all - and stil are - unsure at first, that's why we keep digging and reaffirming our knowledge. We should keep asking 'are we certain?'. That's what improves the rationale behind a prediction.

So when a speculative prediction like 'early 2025' is given, we should question the reasoning behind it instead of accepting it unconditionally (and being too emotionally impacted by it). Especially if they're still mentioning the possibility of an earlier release. Likewise, if someone says it's coming out in April, then I'm also going to request some kind of clarification. Sometimes the reason is just a 'gut feeling' (DF even literally says this in their article , they guess Q1 2024) and that's perfectly fine.
 
Nintendo has come out with a remodel of Switch every 2 years. If no succ until 2025 I can't see it being just on the lite, 2019 refresh and OLED

Maybe an OLED lite will land this year?
 
Dark Cloud said:
Nate has been right about many things. It’s normal for him to get things wrong because Nintendo’s plans are not 100% going to happen as they initially planned.
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About the date of imminent Nintendo directs yeah. About new hardware, absolutely not. Not all info have the same magnitude.

And honestly, when you have contacts strong enough to talk about a hardware 1 or 2 years ahead of the release, you usually don't run a YouTube channel: you either work in the industry, or you're a journalist at Bloomberg.
 
Bosintang said:
The combined sales of the Metroid prime series is less than 8 millions. Yet, Nintendo absolutely views this series as big and heavily invest in it. Because they are smart enough to know that sales don't tell the whole story.
Same goes for Fire Emblem which is pushed in Smash, through spin offs, mobile game and so on. Fire Emblem is big. And 2023 sounds great so far.
Something like Xenoblade, on the other hand, isn't there yet, though Nintendo tries their best to make it happen.
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why is it so hard to explain.
Are those big? yes.
Are tose transcending big? like big enough to sell a new still not established platform to the general audience? no. (and even if its part of the switch family, just look at the ps3 for a failed start)
Mario, Zelda (not always ironically, only when it plays into the epic side of things, Z1 for NES, LTTP for snes, OoT, TP, BotW), Mario Kart, Pokemon... those franchises reach widely different groups of people, and reach the mainstream in a way FE or Metroid did not.
Are all of them big? yeah. but some are juggernauts and help consoles flying of shelves.
 
Hush said:
And then what? Zelda and Mario would be in early development still, Smash Bros is a big question mark as a whole. I dont think any smaller series can do the heavy lifting these series do which is why they are almost certainly being positioned for the Switch 2 at this point
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If the console is early 2025 indeed, I think 3D Mario and 3D Zelda can be well into development if they start right away after their predecessor release. Nintendo is clearly doing more and more outsourcing so that can get games done faster.
Hush said:
AC and MK9 as the main attractions wouldn´t scratch the itch that 3D Mario and Zelda do for early adopters. At least one of them has to be there in the first year, something that I believe 3D Marios have nearly always done for new Nintendo platforms.
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I think 3D Mario can be cross gen with Switch 2 in 2024, but they'll surely make next gen patches or even enhanced ports depending on the approach.
We've seen Sony releasing PS5 only Demon's Souls and The Last of Us remakes... They can surely make some big deal like Ocarina of Time remake or Super Mario 64 remake.
Wockio said:
Switch has a shot at being best selling console of all time if late 2024/early 2025 holds up. It should already be at 120 million and 2023-2024 should net it another 30 million. After that it's just legging it out as the secondary budget option. For reference, 3DS did almost 9 million post-Switch.
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Oh yeah. I think even if Switch 2 was late 2023 or early 2024 it would have a shot if they in the first moment made Switch OG as budget entries.
Anybody can tell me how much DS sold after 3DS came out? And how much PS2 sold after PS3?(I think it is in the same situation of only now it becoming accessible in developing countries)
Kingpin Rogers said:
And here I was wanting new hardware since 2019 for the release of Dragon Quest... pain.

The good news though is we have maybe two more years of this speculation thread lol.

Personally Drake only being for a revision and being cancelled this year whilst Nintendo work on something different for 2025 is making a lot of sense to me. No way they have this chip just sitting around for years, right?
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I think Dragon Quest XII will still come for regular Switch.
 
Raccoon said:
I'm a big believer in the old shit year

past Zelda we'll get a new 2D Mario, Pikmin 4 (maybe), F-ZERO GX, Metroid Prime HD, Wind Waker and Twilight Princess (~a year apart), maybe some wild ones like Kid Icarus or Thousand Year Door

with weirdo shit like Tomodachi or maybe even Rhythm Heaven they'll easily wait on 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, and Metroid Prime 4 until 2025
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when you put it this way

screw Switch 2, I want all of those things! Take all the time you need Nintendo!
 
Sin Drive said:
Anecdotals mean nothing in the face of hard evidence. Mario Kart has been consistently at least top 4 seller since inception and has been number 1 at least 3 times iirc. There's no reason to believe it isn't a system seller outside your extremely limited experiences.

I also don't understand the fact that game sales mean nothing. What games that sell numbers like MK exist that aren't system sellers?
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You are right that my experiences are limited and anecdotal but I still don't believe that sales numbers correlate to the status of system sellers.

In my eyes System Sellers are games that excite people to purchase new hardware by demonstrating hardware capability, innovation and are 'masterpieces'.
I do not think Mario Kart fulfills these statues. Instead I believe it to be more similar to a phone case.

You don't buy a phone for its case but you always buy a case for a phone.
Smash runs
 
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Bosintang said:
The combined sales of the Metroid prime series is less than 8 millions. Yet, Nintendo absolutely views this series as big and heavily invest in it. Because they are smart enough to know that sales don't tell the whole story.
Same goes for Fire Emblem which is pushed in Smash, through spin offs, mobile game and so on. Fire Emblem is big. And 2023 sounds great so far.
Something like Xenoblade, on the other hand, isn't there yet, though Nintendo tries their best to make it happen.
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Again this is just semantics. We can argue where the line is for “big,” but when I think of “big” franchises I don’t think of series that took 35 years to release a game that sells 3 million copies. Nintendo invests in this series because it’s proven profitable enough to continue doing so, they are a business and the bottom line dictates everything at the end of the day.
 
Something that would concern me about a very distant Switch 2 launch is what the software lineup would look like. We've sort of been implicitly assuming that major EPD8 and EPD10 titles are being saved for Switch 2, but if Switch 2 is a ways away, those games probably release on Switch. Which is fine, but then based on how those development cycles have gone in the past, Switch 2 isn't getting 3D Zelda or 3D Mario until it's several years into its life cycle. Animal Crossing and Mario Kart do very, very well, and dev cycles for those games could line up with the launch window, but I would think Nintendo would want something more core-oriented to get momentum from early adopters.
 
totofogo said:
when you put it this way

screw Switch 2, I want all of those things! Take all the time you need Nintendo!
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Tbh, if between now and late 2024 we got a lot of GC/Wii era HD remasters along with some cool 3rd party games (Mass Effect trilogy, some Yakuza games) I’d be more than happy
 
Shadowrun said:
Yeah, the uncle who said production would begin after the Lunar New Year was probably working on the ZOLED after all?
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Well, if that's even real, it's already been produced. Any device that "begins" production after the LNY would logically be Drake.

I put no weight in this podcast whatsoever.
 
Didn't Nate and others mention something about updated devkits around August 2022?

If I had to guess, I'd say Nintendo didn't like all those rumours about devkits being spread around and feeding Bloomberg/Nikkei reports (looking at you Zynga). They recalled the devkits and told developers the hardware was cancelled.

Then they gave a few select trusted partners new final devkits within a stricter NDA framework.
 
Cybergatuno said:
Didn't Nate and others mention something about updated devkits around August 2022?

If I had to guess, I'd say Nintendo didn't like all those rumours about devkits being spread around and feeding Bloomberg/Nikkei reports (looking at you Zynga). They recalled the devkits and told developers the hardware was cancelled.

Then they gave a few select trusted partners new final devkits within a stricter NDA framework.
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hahahaha this is a dope theory

I really, really doubt it though
 
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Raccoon said:
@NateDrake, I'm curious why you say (edit: or perhaps moreso imply) that it would be a bad thing for people not to believe reports later this year or in 2024. Wouldn't it be a good thing if the average person went back to disregarding leaks and industry reporting while only people to whom it is pertinent pay attention?
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I think it would be a bad thing for those vested in this type of early reporting to dismiss a Bloomberg report as a falsehood due to an internal pivot and change of plan. Too many outlets/personalities have accused Mochi of being a liar. If the average person wants to stay on the speculative side of things and wait for official communication, then do so; but this situation shouldn't lead to people claiming Bloomberg, Nikkei, etc. as being unreliable.
 
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