StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Magic-Man]

Would you like to talk about it? I responded to your claim of the T239 possibly not being in use anymore. I didn't intend to be hostile.

Oh no, you're completely okay. That's not really what I'm talking about.

 

[Deleted member 887]

My comment is more for the crowd that thinks we're getting a 1536 Cuda Core GPU with tensor cores for under $399.

The Tegra X1 Jetson boards were $599 in 2015. The Orin Nano modules are $299, though admittedly that is because they are floor swept. It depends on the process node, honestly - if they go 5nm, that's a spike - but my baseline assumption is "OG Switch price, adjusted for inflation, and a little more" which would be ~$399.

The question is whether Nintendo decides to take a loss in order to stay price competitive with Series S. If they go with 5nm, not only do I think they can't, but I think they shouldn't. "A Series S that Switches" is a hell of a value proposition, and at 5nm, with DLSS, that is certainly the kind of experience they'll be able to offer, even if the on paper perf of the Series S is still ahead.

$399 is my expected launch price. If the Switch 2 is basically a Switch with a better SOC and more memory, the cost of manufacturing wont be significantly higher. If Switch had not been so successful there would have been some hefty price cuts by now.

I don't actually think so. Serious inflation means that the cost of the Switch actually has gone down, even as the price has remained constant. A 2022 $299, is $247 in 2017 dollars, and in the meantime, the battery life has considerably improved. Meanwhile, Sony and Microsoft are hiking prices, so relative to the rest of the market its value has improved.

• You'll get 4k HDR I believe.

From your mouth to God's ears, but I am dubious about HDR

• Joycons will be the same or have some sort of new gimmick (analog triggers? better haptics?)

Yeah, I expect the same

• RAM will likely be 6GB or 12GB

I actually think 6 is unlikely. 3GB modules that would work only recently became available. It'll be 2x4GB or 2x6GB almost definitely

• They are most certainly going to go with UFS 3.1 instead of an SSD

Strong evidence to support this

• Storage won't be swappable if it's UFS (microSD for game saves and media captures not withstanding)

Strong evidence for micro SD express, weirdly enough? I guess the thought was that as long as they were supporting MicroSD for ubiquity reasons, and as long as they had the PCIe lanes and NVMe support, might as well make it work so that if you really do want to go all digital and want to spend as much on your storage as you do on the console itself, you might as well get the full speed.

• The display is likely 720p OLED like in the current OLED, it's HDR compatible already I think? 60hz

Medium term, 720p panels might become hard to acquire, just because of market forces in the phone space. Moving to 1080p might actually save them money over the life of the device.

• They might add textured grip to the joy-con's, it's nice to have textured grips on the Xbox Series controller
• VRR will probably be supported

man I hope so.

 

[HankyPanky]

One of the theories about why the ZOLED model leaked is because it was produced months ago, since the original release date for the game was late 2022. So assuming they've gone through at least most of that ZOLED run it's unlikely they need to really ramp up for that. Most special editions are limited editions after all, they don't make them in huge numbers.


AFAIK nobody claimed anything about a NEW production line.

this sort of feeds into the idea that the game could have been delayed for reasons aside from it being complete in time for the holiday. i'm certainly of the opinion that it could have been out already. if they were sure enough to press up special editions then perhaps another reason came along to push it out of this FY.

 

[Hidden04]

I think Zelda has been done for a while, and they are just sitting on it. It was probably finished when they announced the release date.

 

[Concernt]

yup. people are referencing Investor meetings & such but i'm convinced if the Uncles aren't leaking sometime soon (like in the next 4 weeks) then May is totally out the window. of course 2023 is still fair game but even then some chatter should be coming sooner than later.

But they already did, even if they weren't totally clear.

 

[LiC]

If Drake it being used for a whole new product instead of Switch mid-gen refresh, I'm preparing for disappointment where it's something like the Drake chip being used for a home console, and they keep their hybrid business going by using the TX1 again, but with the same Wii U capabilitiers and as a streaming tablet for your Drake console, with the Switch add-on console itself being sold separately and backwards compatible with the current Switch. I'm actually a little concerned they will come off hybrid entirely and do some weird shit again.

Really, I just want a more powerful Switch. And this cancellation is very troubling. Nothing we've heard since has helped. We've only had nate reconfirm the DLSS Switch device was canned and the drake chip is being repurposed. This could explain why it's a such a large 12 SM chip. Maybe thermals and power consumption won't be an issue if it's a just a TV box.

 

[Look over there]

I actually think 6 is unlikely. 3GB modules that would work only recently became available. It'll be 2x4GB or 2xGB almost definitely

Wait, there are 3 GB 64-bit modules now? I do see 3 GB 32-bit being sampled in Micron's catalog, but haven't seen 64-bit yet.

 

[HankyPanky]

But they already did, even if they weren't totally clear.

i'll leave Uncle translating to the more qualified individuals lol.

even the most optimistic take which I lean toward if nothing else because it's fun, well nothing is for certain. not until a Super Hero Uncle claims to have had a complete Switch Drake in his cold, bare hands.

 

[Hidden04]

If Drake it being used for a whole new product instead of Switch mid-gen refresh, I'm preparing for disappointment where it's something like the Drake chip being used for a home console, and they keep their hybrid business going by using the TX1 again, but with the same Wii U capabilitiers and as a streaming tablet for your Drake console, with the Switch add-on console itself being sold separately and backwards compatible with the current Switch. I'm actually a little concerned they will come off hybrid entirely and do some weird shit again.

Really, I just want a more powerful Switch. And this cancellation is very troubling. Nothing we've heard since has helped. We've only had nate reconfirm the DLSS Switch device was canned and the drake chip is being repurposed. This could explain why it's a such a large 12 SM chip. Maybe thermals and power consumption won't be an issue if it's a just a TV box.

Nintendo is never doing home console only again lol.

 

[Goodtwin]

Keeping their own games that only they know of under wraps is one thing, keeping hardware that supposedly dozens or hundreds of other studios know of is an entirely different animal.

Nintendo can be rather stingy with dev kits early on. They will intentionally choose a relatively small group of developers to give early access to for the launch lineup. Every consoles starts with a relatively small userbase, so preventing oversaturation of the market with a flood of third party titles makes sense. I remember hearing developers complain early on with Switch that they still hadn't gotten access to developing games for Switch. Ideally launching with 10-15 titles would be about perfect.

I don't actually think so. Serious inflation means that the cost of the Switch actually has gone down, even as the price has remained constant. A 2022 $299, is $247 in 2017 dollars, and in the meantime, the battery life has considerably improved. Meanwhile, Sony and Microsoft are hiking prices, so relative to the rest of the market its value has improved.

Inflation didnt see the big spike until 2021. If Switch had seen a sharp decline in 2019 or even 2020, Nintendo would have lowered the price and I believe positioned to do so. Nintendo could price various markets differently because some countries currency has been hit harder than others. Sony increased the price of the PS5 in most regions but not here in the US. Now if both Sony and Microsoft were to adjust their consoles up to $499-$599, then Nintendo might flirt with a $449 price point, but I think $399 is the target and the sweet spot.

 

[NintenDuvo]

So wait the earnings release in February won't have questions from investors?

 

[lucapfstr]

One of the theories about why the ZOLED model leaked is because it was produced months ago, since the original release date for the game was late 2022. So assuming they've gone through at least most of that ZOLED run it's unlikely they need to really ramp up for that.

The thing about this theory is that we knew the game was coming Spring 2023 as soon as last May. And Nintendo knew even sooner. So why would they have the ZOLED produced right now?

I see three possibilities:

• We don’t know how ahead of time these models are manufactured, in general. We should look into the Splatoon OLED and SV OLED because although we didn’t get any pictures, we got some uncle leaks. When did those happen exactly, and how many color ways were mentioned?
• Nintendo produced the SPOLED, SVOLED, and ZOLED around the same time, because these are the only limited models that will ever exist. A successor is due. Again, we should look to see how many color ways were observed by uncle(s) around mid-2022.
• Nintendo manufactured the ZOLED ahead of time to give enthusiasts a special edition of some kind, but now the focus will be manufacturing the successor.

To top it all off, I’m not wholly convinced about ZOLED still. Unlike the other special editions, the docked switch photo on the back has a bottom shadow. It could easily be a real design inconsistency by Nintendo but still. (Everything else about it checks out imo)

 

[Hidden04]

So wait the earnings release in February won't have questions from investors?

Is there a source for this?

 

[YugamiSekai]

So wait the earnings release in February won't have questions from investors?

If it's anything like 2020, it might.

 

[Skittzo]

So wait the earnings release in February won't have questions from investors?

Usually Q3 earnings releases do have a Q&A session, unless Nintendo tells investors ahead of time that it won't. Did you see something from them?

The thing about this theory is that we knew the game was coming Spring 2023 as soon as last May. And Nintendo knew even sooner. So why would they have the ZOLED produced right now?

I see three possibilities:

• We don’t know how ahead of time these models are manufactured, in general. We should look into the Splatoon OLED and SV OLED because although we didn’t get any pictures, we got some uncle leaks. When did those happen exactly, and how many color ways were mentioned?
• Nintendo produced the SPOLED, SVOLED, and ZOLED around the same time, because these are the only limited models that will ever exist. A successor is due. Again, we should look to see how many color ways were observed by uncle(s) around mid-2022.
• Nintendo manufactured the ZOLED ahead of time to give enthusiasts a special edition of some kind, but now the focus will be manufacturing the successor.

To top it all off, I’m not wholly convinced about ZOLED still. Unlike the other special editions, the docked switch photo on the back has a bottom shadow. It could easily be a real design inconsistency by Nintendo but still. (Everything else about it checks out imo)

That's a good point. I agree that the theory might be flawed, which is why I presented it as a theory.

IIRC though we've seen some evidence that Switch consoles, or at least some parts of them, are manufactured around a year or possibly like 14-16 months before they're sold.

Regarding the uncles, I believe the Funcle mentioned in April that two different colorway models were undergoing production, and he said neither of them was the Splatoon 3 model IIRC. So it's possible that the ZOLED and the POLED (Pokemon) were being produced as of last April?

 

[Eos]

What if that Switch 2 with 1536 Coda Cores is an only home console? I mean, in that case, it would be cheaper than 399$ right? No screen, no battery...

 

[Paxie]

One of the theories about why the ZOLED model leaked is because it was produced months ago, since the original release date for the game was late 2022. So assuming they've gone through at least most of that ZOLED run it's unlikely they need to really ramp up for that. Most special editions are limited editions after all, they don't make them in huge numbers.

How much inertia do these kind of things carry? TotK was delayed early in the year, assuming they started production in July/August it sounds to me like they'd have enough time to pause everything until the new date was closer.

Regarding the whole thing about how Switch Pro rumors morphed over time, the fact that they were technically different is irrelevant imo. It doesn't change the toxic effects they've had on discussion (such as making discourse about Switch performance unbearable at times, magnifying the amount of Pro begging), all for a product that ultimately (and allegedly) got canned anyways. I can't blame people for wanting to check out

 

[Quailman]

I'll try not to get dragged into the pedantry (although I do love some good pedantry), but it's linear in that it fits a linear function of the form y=ax+b (notice the +b, it doesn't have to intersect at 0) with an R-squared of pretty much 1. Or, to put it more simply, it's a straight line.

Regardless of how we want to define linear, though, my point doesn't change; it doesn't match the shape we would expect on a real chip, or even a reasonable estimate of a real chip. Even with just three points, this is easy enough to determine, because in the second-order polynomial form you'd expect the data to match, no set of three points will ever fit a linear function*.

* Ok, if we want to get really pedantic, there isn't going to be a precise second-order polynomial relationship between clock speed and power consumption. More accurately, power is a function of voltage, clock speed and temperature (via the Poole-Frenkel effect) split across static and dynamic power draw. A good description (with the full functional form) can be found on this Anandtech thread, with measurements. Strictly speaking this does permit multiple data points to fit a linear function, but only if the voltage is constant between the points. I think we can safely assume that Nintendo wouldn't use the same voltage at 660MHz and 1.38GHz, so with proper DVFS we should still have something decidedly non-linear.


Jensen Huang
Nvidia
Yes

I mean, it's not that hard to decode. They're not going to publish a piece about Nintendo's next (obviously Nvidia-powered) hardware based on some IBM or AMD exec travelling to Japan.

Even if it's accurate, though, it doesn't really tell us much. Jensen is hardly going to be hand-delivering Drake chips on his private jet. Nintendo's a big client for Nvidia, so every so often it's worth having in-person meetings to manage the relationship and make sure everything's running smooth. Maybe this is to mark a milestone, like Drake hitting manufacturing, but it could equally just be Jensen scheduling a trip to meet with several clients/suppliers in Asia, and Nintendo is one of those he's meeting with.

I do agree that the special VIP is Jensen Huang, he has always delivered the Nvidia CES keynote outside of 2021 with the AI version of him delivering it.

He was noticeably absent this year, most likely he was in Japan probably meeting with Nintendo to go over strategy, renewing partnership, or maybe being apart of filming a Nintendo Direct to help announce the new switch 2 and the hardware used. Or the most likeliest of scenarios is he took this year off to spend time with his family.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Wait, there are 3 GB 64-bit modules now? I do see 3 GB 32-bit being sampled in Micron's catalog, but haven't seen 64-bit yet.

You are correct! I was misremembering

 

[Dekuman]

thank you, i needed it! Yes, that's my pessimistic mind going to dark places XD

 

[Skittzo]

How much inertia do these kind of things carry? TotK was delayed early in the year, assuming they started production in July/August it sounds to me like they'd have enough time to pause everything until the new date was closer.

Regarding the whole thing about how Switch Pro rumors morphed over time, the fact that they were technically different is irrelevant imo. It doesn't change the toxic effects they've had on discussion (such as making discourse about Switch performance unbearable at times, magnifying the amount of Pro begging), all for a product that ultimately (and allegedly) got canned anyways. I can't blame people for wanting to check out

As I said in the post above yours, it's possible they were being produced as of April last year.

 

[HankyPanky]

I do agree that the special VIP is Jensen Huang, he has always delivered the Nvidia CES keynote outside of 2021 with the AI version of him delivering it.

He was noticeably absent this year, most likely he was in Japan probably meeting with Nintendo to go over strategy, renewing partnership, or maybe being apart of filming a Nintendo Direct to help announce the new switch 2 and the hardware used. Or the most likeliest of scenarios is he took this year off to spend time with his family.

Jensen Direct confirmed!

 

[Dakhil]

I do agree that the special VIP is Jensen Huang, he has always delivered the Nvidia CES keynote outside of 2021 with the AI version of him delivering it.

Jensen Huang wasn't the presenter of Nvidia's CES 2022 keynote.

 

[Shadowrun]

Jensen Huang wasn't the presenter of Nvidia's CES 2022 keynote.

That's what the poster was saying. Jensen did NOT present this year when he usually does.

Edit: I'm an idiot..we are in 2023. Lol.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Jensen Direct confirmed!

Raccoon, lurking right now, shaking in happiest glee.

 

[Dakhil]

That's what the poster was saying. Jensen did NOT present this year when he usually does.

I'm sure Quailman said Jensen Huang is the presenter of all of Nvidia's CES keynotes, except in 2021 and 2023. And that's where I mentioned that Jensen Huang wasn't the presenter for Nvidia's CES 2022 keynote.

 

[ADR91]

Could anyone with good enough technical knowledge provide us with a summary of the relevant data that has been gathered so far from Linux commits, as well as of what it means and what it potentially implies (if this has been done already, could someone then please provide me with a link to the relevant post?) ?

My understanding is that a commit to the Linux kernel regarding T239 was first discovered back in september of last year, from which we've learned that Drake has got 8 CPU cores in one cluster.

Since then, some of the more tech savvy users here such as @oldpuck and @Thraktor (sorry if I forgot about anyone) have subsequently dug deeper into the matter and discovered some older updates not only to the Linux kernel, but also to a specific Linux distribution called Linux4Tegra, some of which go back to as far as April or May 2022.

One thing I'm specifically wondering about is how long before the final product's commercialisation those kind of Linux updates typically occur.

For instance, I believe the first consumer-oriented, Linux-based device featuring the Tegra X1 was the Nvidia Shield TV, which released on May the 28th, 2015.

Do we know how long before traces of the TX1 SoC started to appear in the Linux kernel and/or a specific Linux distribution?

Wouldn't that make a good reference point to guess how far we are from the release of a Linux-based product featuring the T239 SoC?

If so, I suppose we could easily infer a plausible release window for a Drake-powered Switch from that, provided that we make the (pretty reasonable) assumption that Nintendo hardware will be coming out before any Linux-based device featuring T239.

 

[Shadowrun]

I'm sure Quailman said Jensen Huang is the presenter of all of Nvidia's CES keynotes, except in 2021 and 2023. And that's where I mentioned that Jensen Huang wasn't the presenter for Nvidia's CES 2022 keynote.

Oh crap. It's 2023! Lmao. Sorry. I'm mentally stuck in 2022.

 

[Maxrunner]

It's not just the Switch OLED announcement that makes people pessimistic. It's the fact that this thing has been rumored since 2019. 2019! And yeah I know it was thought to be a Switch Pro then but that still doesn't change anything. The only "evidence" we have is a chip that might not be in use anymore. I don't think there's dev kits out there. I don't think it's in production. I'd be glad to be wrong, but this thing isn't coming until 2024 at the earliest.

So now it's not being used anymore? Did a new shield got announced at CES? If not why do we believe it's not being used with the leak and all?

 

[Skittzo]

I'm sure Quailman said Jensen Huang is the presenter of all of Nvidia's CES keynotes, except in 2021 and 2023. And that's where I mentioned that Jensen Huang wasn't the presenter for Nvidia's CES 2022 keynote.

People (myself included) keep forgetting we're no longer in 2022.

Could anyone with good enough technical knowledge provide us with a summary of the relevant data that has been gathered so far from Linux commits, as well as of what it means and what it potentially implies (if this has been done already, could someone then please provide me with a link to the relevant post?) ?

My understanding is that a commit to the Linux kernel regarding T239 was first discovered back in september of last year, from which we've learned that Drake has got 8 CPU cores in one cluster.

Since then, some of the more tech savvy users here such as @oldpuck and @Thraktor (sorry if forgot about anyone) have subsequently dug deeper into the matter and discovered some older updates not only to the Linux kernel, but also to a specific Linux distribution called Linux4Tegra, some of which go back to as far as April or May 2022.

One thing I'm specifically wondering about is how long before the final product's commercialisation those kind of Linux updates typically occur.

For instance, I believe the first consumer-oriented, Linux-based device featuring the Tegra X1 was the Nvidia Shield TV, which released on May the 28th, 2015.

Do we know how long before traces of the TX1 SoC started to appear in the Linux kernel and/or a specific Linux distribution?

Wouldn't that make a good reference point to guess how far we are from the release of a Linux-based product featuring the T239 SoC?

If so, I suppose we could easily infer a plausible release window for a Drake-powered Switch from that, provided that we make the (pretty reasonable) assumption that Nintendo hardware will be coming out before any Linux-based device featuring T239.

I'm not sure every chip made gets these kinds of Linux updates, so I don't know if this is something that we can find. If I'm wrong though then that would definitely be an interesting compilation.

I think the timeline we have is based not exactly on the fact that there are Linux commits, but because of what one of those in particular suggests. One of the updates was about PCI-e line testing, which heavily suggests that testing is being done on a physical chip, as you wouldn't have physical PCI lines to test with without having a chip. So that information suggests (not conclusively but pretty heavily) that the chip physically existed at the latest by April last year. Then we can base the ensuing timeline on that supposition.

 

[jaycie]

forgive my ignorance but I just signed up after lurking for a while to ask, what is an "uncle" that everybody's referring to? industry slang?

 

[ILikeFeet]

What if that Switch 2 with 1536 Coda Cores is an only home console? I mean, in that case, it would be cheaper than 399$ right? No screen, no battery...

sure, but why should we believe this is the case? I don't think it would even sell well enough to justify itself

 

[hologram]

forgive my ignorance but I just signed up after lurking for a while to ask, what is an "uncle" that everybody's referring to? industry slang?

It comes from the old meme "my uncle works at Nintendo", which is shorthand for someone who is likely making up inside information and claims connection to a dubious source

 

[jaycie]

It comes from the old meme "my uncle works at Nintendo", which is shorthand for someone who is likely making up inside information and claims connection to a dubious source
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

oh, should've seen that coming lol, thanks

 

[karmitt]

.

Honestly, I mostly hate Jenkins because of my company's implementation, rather than Jenkins itself (although Jenkins is quite slow).

Spoiler: Jenkins Rant

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Spoiler

Sounds rough!
My team, our projects, etc. are probably much smaller, and our release schedule is less regular, so it's hard to compare. We don't enforce build complete before merging the PR, although if I did enable it I don't think it would cause much disruption for us. We do block force push because I don't think there's a good case for it to be available for any type of routine activity. That part is kind of weird, and it just sounds like impatient senior devs trying to jump the line.

It comes from the old meme "my uncle works at Nintendo", which is shorthand for someone who is likely making up inside information and claims connection to a dubious source
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Skittzo]

 

[hologram]

Spoiler

That part is kind of weird, and it just sounds like impatient senior devs trying to jump the line.

That's exactly what it is lmao

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Skittzo]

Raccoon, lurking right now, shaking in happiest glee.

Raccoon has requested I post this gif in response on his behalf:

 

[Deleted member 2]

That's exactly what it is lmao

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

It's actually 100% the latter

 

[Look over there]

The former inspired the latter, according to this post.

 

[Paxie]

As I said in the post above yours, it's possible they were being produced as of April last year.

Oops, you did. Sorry for missing that

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Petition to have any verified insider have the custom tag “Uncle/Aunt of the neighborhood” and those that do not abide by those genders as “Friendly neighborhood Nintendo Friend”

 

[Deleted member 2]

The former inspired the latter, according to this post.

Ope. It's 100% bolth

 

[Look over there]

Petition to have any verified insider have the custom tag “Uncle/Aunt of the neighborhood” and those that do not abide by those genders as “Friendly neighborhood Nintendo Friend”

I'd say that the gender neutral version could be 'Sibling of Parent', but then that starts heading in the direction of implying 'Sibling of bellydrum'?

 

[HankyPanky]

we all know that Factory Uncles are the best breed of Uncle. dealing only in cold, hard, hardware & backplates of varying size & colour.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What if that Switch 2 with 1536 Coda Cores is an only home console? I mean, in that case, it would be cheaper than 399$ right? No screen, no battery...

Then they'd be trying to sell a tiny home-only machine more expensive and less capable than the Series S.

 

[Concernt]

Alright, time for a curveball.

They want this to sell? It needs marketing. They need a colour scheme.
So far we've had white and grey for the launch box, red for V2, red with a white colour scheme for the OLED. I'm thinking:

Bright red (maybe cherry?) and black.
Or
Crimson and white.
Or
No change.

Now since this is probably a successor, I'm thinking it's probably going to need a launch title to show off its "gimmicks"... Which are 4K and a ridiculously powerful handheld mode. Could be Elden Ring?

What kind of game could be Drake's 1-2 Switch? A short, ray-traced puzzle game? Portal RTX?

 

[Deleted member 887]

Could anyone with good enough technical knowledge provide us with a summary of the relevant data that has been gathered so far from Linux commits, as well as of what it means and what it potentially implies (if this has been done already, could someone then please provide me with a link to the relevant post?) ?

The Big Summary Post I put together should still basically be accurate, though it mixes the Linux reveals with the NVN2 leak.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I personnally hate this kind of thing. It's impossible to pronounce lol Nintendo Twitch, obviously

famiboards.com

The short summary of what's in the Linux data:

• T239 has lost most of the self driving car machinery
• It has an 8 core single cluster CPU
• It has half as much memory bandwidth as Orin
• It has a File Decompression Engine which is "for games" but whose exact function is unclear

My understanding is that a commit to the Linux kernel regarding T239 was first discovered back in september of last year, from which we've learned that Drake has got 8 CPU cores in one cluster.

Since then, some of the more tech savvy users here such as @oldpuck and @Thraktor (sorry if I forgot about anyone) have subsequently dug deeper into the matter and discovered some older updates not only to the Linux kernel, but also to a specific Linux distribution called Linux4Tegra, some of which go back to as far as April or May 2022.

One thing I'm specifically wondering about is how long before the final product's commercialisation those kind of Linux updates typically occur.

For instance, I believe the first consumer-oriented, Linux-based device featuring the Tegra X1 was the Nvidia Shield TV, which released on May the 28th, 2015.

Do we know how long before traces of the TX1 SoC started to appear in the Linux kernel and/or a specific Linux distribution?

T210 - the chip ID for TX1 - showed up in July of 2015 in the mainline Linux kernel. That was the same month that Linux 4 Tegra made its first (I believe?) public release. The TX2 data dropped basically the instant the TX2 did. Orin - T234 - showed up in the mainline kernel a few months before Orin was available

Wouldn't that make a good reference point to guess how far we are from the release of a Linux-based product featuring the T239 SoC?

No, but also yes, but also no. I will explain!

Tegra chips wind up in lots of places, running lots of operating systems. Linux 4 Tegra is a version of Linux that Nvidia provides that runs on those chips for development purposes. Basically it's the OS for Tegra devkits, even if the final product you might be building with tegra runs a different OS.

L4T runs a bunch of Nvidia specific software. But the Linux kernel needs drivers for the chips themselves to even boot up, and standard practice is to push them in the shared Linux code base. That process can take some time, and is subject to approval by people who don't work at Nvidia (namely Linus himself, the original Linux creator).

So the process is that Nvidia develops L4T, releases L4T when they have a Tegra development board, and pushes the Linux drivers upstream into general Linux somewhere in the neighborhood of that release. Sometimes it works out a little before, sometimes it works a little after.

In the case of the TX1, Nvidia released the Shield TV before they released the Jetson TX1 Devkit. Since the Shield TV is a blackbox product for end users, it didn't need a Linux at launch, so there was no L4T release. And the L4T release, when it came, happened about the same time that Nvidia started trying to get its drivers upstream

In the case of Orin, the L4T release was held till the Orin AGX module was out, but apparently, the drivers were in a good position that they started moving them upstream a few months earlier than that.

If Nvidia were mainlining Drake support into Linux, it would tell us that they were likely getting ready to add L4T support for Drake, which would tell us that a Jetson Drake (or whatever) was probably incoming. But that could come totally independently of the Switch.

Double However: Nvidia actually isn't mainlining the Drake drivers. They've actually gone out of their way to try and hide them. The only reason that T239 wound up in the mainline Linux kernel is probably because the driver is shared with Orin, and at that point the "official" place for Orin drivers was the mainline linux kernel

Almost all of the information we have about Drake from the Linux kernel is like this - Drake's driver actually isn't in the public repositories but there are "stubs" in the Orin driver, where the Orin driver loads by default, and if it catches running on Drake, it loads up a second, separate module for Drake specifically. Originally Orin and Drake's linux drivers were developed together, and at some point earlier this year they were separated, leaving only some vestigial references.

Triple however: it seems likely from these drops that Drake's design is finalized and possibly even being manufactured. There are several places where Nvidia publishes source code and reference docs, and in general, they get updated the day that Nvidia releases a new product - we saw it with Lovelace. T239 was updated in August, right before the driver got mainlined. So it seems highly likely that Drake is ready to go, and that some product (even if it is just another Shield TV) is imminent - or was planned to be (depending on how you interpret recent news)

 

[Serif]

Then they'd be trying to sell a tiny home-only machine more expensive and less capable than the Series S.

And disappoint the third party devs who I'm sure wanted a taste of the Switch action and make bespoke hybrid versions of their games.

 

[Skittzo]

Alright, time for a curveball.

They want this to sell? It needs marketing. They need a colour scheme.
So far we've had white and grey for the launch box, red for V2, red with a white colour scheme for the OLED. I'm thinking:

Bright red (maybe cherry?) and black.
Or
Crimson and white.
Or
No change.

Now since this is probably a successor, I'm thinking it's probably going to need a launch title to show off its "gimmicks"... Which are 4K and a ridiculously powerful handheld mode. Could be Elden Ring?

What kind of game could be Drake's 1-2 Switch? A short, ray-traced puzzle game? Portal RTX?

Personally I think they're gonna use "AI" as the gimmick. They'll have a personal built in assistant to recommend games, help you set stuff up, help you schedule online matches, stuff like that. Then probably AR games using a front and/or rear facing camera.