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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
So there's a patent from Nintendo that USPTO published today titled "Electronic Device" with document ID "US 20230007388 A1". So from here, type "nintendo" and click on the first result.

I was embarrassingly informed about this from the video below.
 
Dakhil said:
Alex Battaglia from Digital Foundry mentioned that DLSS 3 only starts to become beneficial when the game runs at ~80 fps (I assume the game has to run at ~40 fps before taking into account DLSS 3).
Click to expand...
we're gonna see this pushed to the limits with Cyberpunk RT Overdrive

Dakhil said:
So there's a patent from Nintendo that USPTO published today titled "Electronic Device" with document ID "US 20230007388 A1". So from here, type "nintendo" and click on the first result.

I was embarrassingly informed about this from the video below.
Click to expand...

usually, if Nintendo patents become public, their either already in use or won't be in use

EDIT: the patent originates in 2021, so it's most likely nothing interesting
 
Dakhil said:
So there's a patent from Nintendo that USPTO published today titled "Electronic Device" with document ID "US 20230007388 A1". So from here, type "nintendo" and click on the first result.

I was embarrassingly informed about this from the video below.
Click to expand...

I'll check it out in a few minutes, preparing to be underwhelmed.
 
0
Dakhil said:
So there's a patent from Nintendo that USPTO published today titled "Electronic Device" with document ID "US 20230007388 A1". So from here, type "nintendo" and click on the first result.

I was embarrassingly informed about this from the video below.
Click to expand...

And was the content of the patent?
 
It's incredibly rare for developers to leak, there is a very strong culture and process around this already. Game leaks can only hurt sales, and, if caught, your career is over. Given this, it was very impressive that Bloomberg was able to get 11 developers to confirm the existence dev kits. I wonder if some of this leaking was strategic - making sure that Nintendo does release the hardware on time to align with the software investment from third parties.

This leaves us with people who have less skin in the game; hackers and casual workers.

The Lapsus hack has sustained this thread but professional media are not going to work with hacked (stolen) information. A journalist can't start asking Nvidia or Nintendo questions about NVN2 if it only appears in the files released by the hacker as this could be classed as IP infringement.

We have seen a few good leaks from factory and translation teams. As I recall, ARMS and MK8D were leaked the day before they were announced by a worker setting up the demo booths. It will be interesting to see what Nintendo does to clamp down on this but reducing the number of people in the know seems like the most obvious step.
 
slsk said:
Given this, it was very impressive that Bloomberg was able to get 11 developers to confirm the existence dev kits.
Click to expand...
I wonder how many studios these 11 devs represent. it has to be at least two, with multiple people of the 11 being from Zynga
 
0
Dakhil said:
So there's a patent from Nintendo that USPTO published today titled "Electronic Device" with document ID "US 20230007388 A1". So from here, type "nintendo" and click on the first result.

I was embarrassingly informed about this from the video below.
Click to expand...

Looks like it's a patent application for the new speaker arrangement in the OLED model. This is dependent on a Japanese patent filed in June 2021.
 
Patents can be withheld and shown after a date, even the day of, the product releasing.


Unless I missed it, if you see a patent published to the public before something is released, it’s not for the thing you have in mind.

So, this isn’t anything of note for the next system.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Patents can be withheld and shown after a date, even the day of, the product releasing.


Unless I missed it, if you see a patent published to the public before something is released, it’s not for the thing you have in mind.

So, this isn’t anything of note for the next system.
Click to expand...
99 out of 100 times this will be the case, yes.
 
oldpuck said:
No, they can't. It won't work. If they release a TV only version first, then the handheld version has to either 1) run the same as the TV only version while in handheld mode or 2) not be able to run games that were made before the handheld version came out.

If they do #1, it won't be cheaper. If they do #2, they might as well use a totally different chip, like they did for years with their separate handheld and console lines.

If they're going to do #1, the best bet is to wait several years for what's called a die shrink. If they're going to do a die shrink, there is no need to make the TV only version small enough for portable mode.

If a TV only version is coming it will not come before the handheld version. It will come out at the same time or after.
Click to expand...
I thought the die was big as far as I can recall.
Because of that, I thought of that possibility. If the die is small, then it wouldn't make sense for a home console as you says.
 
10k said:
Can't wait for the reactions when Switch 2 is $449 for the entry model.
Click to expand...
I'm fully expecting it.

The current hardware specifications, combined with the general state of the economy, price increases, inflation, etc, will result in a $450 price at minimum.

And if it's not $450, I'd say $499 is more likely than $399.
 
kojimaposting said:
There's a revised filing for a Joy-con Wheel but I honestly couldn't tell you what's different about it.. looks like maybe the actual chamber for holding the Joy-cons is a different shape? I don't own a wheel to compare to it.
Click to expand...

slsk said:
It seems that the video is covering two patents. The second one is for a Joy-Con Wheel (which released a long time ago):
Click to expand...

Ah that's a continuation. By definition a continuation can't actually have anything new, it's likely just them trying to get coverage for a slightly broader or different set of claims. Nothing interesting.
 
0
JoshuaJSlone said:
I'm more open to so-so image interpolation than most (and am interested in how low the requirements might be for FSR3), but I think that's a bad idea. Everything we've seen about frame interpolation says it gets worse the fewer frames you start out with. I think for some slower paced content you could still get away with 30->60, where visual anomalies wouldn't matter as much and quick reaction time isn't important. I liked using my TVs built-in smoothing for Great Ace Attorney. I could see it for a Dragon Quest or a Fire Emblem, maybe Animal Crossing. But a fast-paced action game like Mario? It's gotta be better.
Click to expand...
Yeah I used my TV’s middle “smoothing mode” for Mario Rabbids 2 and for something that slow paced it felt pretty good. It’s a no go for anything where input response time is needed though and the image struggles and almost tears with large, fast 3D camera movements. Still it’s very impressive for a built in TV mode imo.

I can see TV’s eventually using tech like the latest Nvidia reveal where they’re improving the image quality of video / live streams in real time using ai.

At least we’ll have some fun with ai before it nukes us 😂
 
0
At least reading that patent has made me understand why the OLED Model speakers point DOWN. It's so the sound reflects off the table in tabletop mode. Neat.
 
Concernt said:
I believe the one we saw was European, so, hmm. Can't be sure it's in Europe yet.
Click to expand...
I do fear the game leaking early somehow (a physical copy maybe in March) and it obviously won’t have the day one patch meaning essentially a game months away from completion 😢 I hope I’m wrong.
 
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
Polygon said:
I do fear the game leaking early somehow (a physical copy maybe in March) and it obviously won’t have the day one patch meaning essentially a game months away from completion 😢 I hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
Don‘t see Nintendo risking shipping physical copies of TOTK this early.
 
0
Eos said:
I thought the die was big as far as I can recall.
Because of that, I thought of that possibility. If the die is small, then it wouldn't make sense for a home console as you says.
Click to expand...
we don't know how big the die is. it's probably big on 8nm, but not prohibitively so
 
0
Polygon said:
I do fear the game leaking early somehow (a physical copy maybe in March) and it obviously won’t have the day one patch meaning essentially a game months away from completion 😢 I hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
Digital copies of Switch games have been consistently leaking before launch for the past few years due to a technical loophole that is part of the launch Switch's software. We can absolutely expect leaked copies in the wild at least a week in advance to launch.
 
Darn i was just about to have some hope we finally have some tangible proof this next system is real and like always it shot down in seconds smh
 
Corim said:
Digital copies of Switch games have been consistently leaking before launch for the past few years due to a technical loophole that is part of the launch Switch's software. We can absolutely expect leaked copies in the wild at least a week in advance to launch.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’d expect a week or two leaks for most big games because certain countries just don’t care one bit about physical street dates. My fear is TotK leaks in early March, then people are emulating it at 4k/60 two months before it even launches on Switch.

Surely these bundles (if they’re even real) have digital codes for the game to claim it from the eshop? Hopefully Nintendo don’t put it on their servers until the last possible moment before official release to at least mitigate the leaks by a week or two.

This also looks like a pretty story heavy Zelda game so leaks and spoilers would be super annoying.
 
Polygon said:
Yeah I’d expect a week or two leaks for most big games because certain countries just don’t care one bit about physical street dates. My fear is TotK leaks in early March, then people are emulating it at 4k/60 two months before it even launches on Switch.

Surely these bundles (if they’re even real) have digital codes for the game to claim it from the eshop? Hopefully Nintendo don’t put it on their servers until the last possible moment before official release to at least mitigate the leaks by a week or two.

This also looks like a pretty story heavy Zelda game so leaks and spoilers would be super annoying.
Click to expand...
I don't believe the other special edition OLED Model Switches came with a download code or anything, so I doubt that. You just buy the console and game seperately. If that box is real, it would have mentioned the inclusion of the game on it.
 
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
 
i think that is a very realistic timeline. i think it's possible than when Zelda was pushed back the timing for being able to get a Drake device to market and what form it could take were not 100% decided. so they had some type of window, even if a short one, to get them launching together.

it can still happen but if it doesn't i still reckon the Zelda delay was due to something hardware related. giving a slightly longer time to make decisions re the T239 device.
 
0
Eos said:
I thought the die was big as far as I can recall.
Because of that, I thought of that possibility. If the die is small, then it wouldn't make sense for a home console as you says.
Click to expand...
We don't actually know the die size, we know how many cores are in the GPU. The number of cores in the GPU is ... weird.

It's huge for handheld, but it's a very specific number (1536) which is oddly for TV console. It would actually be easier to make it slightly more powerful, if you weren't worried about battery life. That's why many folk wonder if it's on a smaller production process, which would make 1536 cores small enough for a handheld
 
Concernt said:
I don't believe the other special edition OLED Model Switches came with a download code or anything, so I doubt that. You just buy the console and game seperately. If that box is real, it would have mentioned the inclusion of the game on it.
Click to expand...
Ah my bad. I just assumed it was a bundle.
 
0
oldpuck said:
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...
Are you expecting Samsung 4nm for Drake?
 
oldpuck said:
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how literally we're meant to take this whole thing so I'll defer making every comment I could make. But:
  • Plans for T239 have existed since 2020 at the latest, and T239 is Drake, not Dane.
  • If some other chip had existed for a year or more and been included as a target for NVN2, we would see some evidence of it in the leak.
  • The idea of any shorter-lived intermediate revision just doesn't make sense with an Ampere Tegra.
  • "DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives" isn't happening.
Specifics aside, some of the series of events you mention may have happened -- but only in the timeframe of prototyping stages before the chip was decided on. Maybe they tested a floorswept Orin and discovered it had the issues you're describing and decided they needed a die shrink. But nothing exists at that point to "cancel" or "replace," that's just the process of deciding what they want to make to begin with. That process is 100% internal to Nintendo and Nvidia. It doesn't work as an explanation for the public (or rather third-party "leakable") timeline we've been dealing with.
 
oldpuck said:
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...
Seems to be a few inconsistencies here.

First, didn't kopite say Dane was 8SMs instead of 4?

Second, NVN2 code referencing Drake far predates December 2021 I believe. Also doesn't it explicitly say Drake is made at a Samsung foundry in the code?

Third, the Wii U was announced at E3 2011 if I'm not mistaken, and released November 2012. A 17 month marketing cycle, not short at all.


I'm not sure if the evidence supports the idea that Dane really was a separate thing but I do admit it would help explain some of the stuff we've heard from rumors.
 
oldpuck said:
Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.
Click to expand...
Nvidia implies that Drive Thor features an Ada Lovelace based GPU.
Codename_Steam said:
Are you expecting Samsung 4nm for Drake?
Click to expand...
No, considering oldpuck mentioned having Drake fabricated using the same process nodes used for other Nvidia products allows Nvidia to temporarily shift capacity without losing securements of process node capacity. And as far as I know, there are no products from Nvidia fabricated using Samsung's 4 nm** process node.

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
 
oldpuck said:
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...

Now THIS is podracing speculating! In other words, I have no idea what percentage of this is true (and it might be very low) but it's a compelling narrative.
 
hologram said:
I couldn't help but laugh when I learned x nm doesn't actually mean the node is x nm in length. Marketing buzzwords have even taken over scientific units of measurement
Click to expand...
I think it's supposed to mean the smallest element in the transistors made has that length. And I think that was true for a while, but for whatever reason they kept going with the names while the laws of physics prevented them from making actual elements smaller.
 
oldpuck said:
I am fairly convinced that the "delay" actually is caused by a node shrink. It's just a node shrink that decided 14+ months ago, along with all the decisions that come with.

The wild "Drake is node shrunk Dane" theory neatly explains almost every weird bit of info we've heard.

Nintendo wants a more powerful Switch, they go to Nvidia, take a look at the Orin plans and see a DLSS demo. A 2x power increase is inline with the last three Nintendo generations, and 2-3x more power plus 4K hardware was the exact strategy for the midgen consoles from Sony and Microsoft.

Dane is exactly the device you would have expected if you had asked @Thraktor for predictions at the time. Its 4SMs, decent clock speed, it's got tensor cores for DLSS, it even has RT cores.

Devkits are out in 2021 with devs told to "make their games 4k ready". According to Nate, the upgrade is a 4k focused pro model, based on what he's heard from developers, and he expects a "real" next gen a few years later. 2022-2023 window seems consistent from multiple sources.

The problem is Dane sucks. 4 tensor cores at mobile clock speeds is barely enough power for DLSS 2. 4 Ampere SM is a solid 2.5x power upgrade over Switch, but you can't do anything with that extra power, because you spend it all trying to get frame time down to let DLSS 2 run. The RT is vestigial at that point. But pushing clock speeds or SMs any higher, and the battery life and heat get out of control.

Nvidia has its own challenges. The GPU market tanks, and it's clear that Lovelace is gonna be pricey. Ampere is going to stay around for a while. Meanwhile, the Tegra team that staffed up in 2019 has nothing to do - Atlan has been cancelled, and its replacement, Thor, has to wait until Blackwell's design is finalized before they can really get to work.

New Plan: Drake. The Tegra team will take Dane, triple it, and die shrink it. It'll be Nintendo's true next gen upgrade, and it will give Nvidia a second 5nm product they can use to buffer demand. Nvidia makes TSMC 5nm purchases in December of 2021, and the in-dev NVN2 is updated to use Drake's SOC information. Only a vestigial reference to Dane remains.

Which leaks in Spring of this year. Insiders and observant outsiders are all agog. How do they fit 12 SMs on Samsung 8nm? Where is the modest 4k Switch update? Surely something is up. Half the SMs in handheld mode? No CPU upgrade?

These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...
I believe most of this is true, except for the part that incomplete games will be exclusives, Nintendo is not going to throw 130M installed base away to hype a console that simply won't be able to keep up with demand for 2 years. I believe third party exclusives, and 4K/60 for Nintendo games are more than enough.
 
Skittzo said:
I think it's supposed to mean the smallest element in the transistors made has that length. And I think that was true for a while, but for whatever reason they kept going with the names while the laws of physics prevented them from making actual elements smaller.
Click to expand...
My guess:
"Alright fellas, we've been using this naming scheme for decades now. Coming up with something new and then kicking old habits is hard. And we all understand what's really going on here. So let's just... continue doing what we're doing"
collective shrug and nod
 
Skittzo said:
I think it's supposed to mean the smallest element in the transistors made has that length. And I think that was true for a while, but for whatever reason they kept going with the names while the laws of physics prevented them from making actual elements smaller.
Click to expand...
Oh I know, it's this latter part I find funny

"Okay, 32mm process nodes have been out a while, it's time to introduce 22mm!"
"Sir, we can't keep reducing the size of the node, and even if we could, it wouldn't necessarily give us the improvements we -"
"Fine, whatever, we'll just call it 22mm, I don't really care anyway"
 
LinkURL said:
I believe most of this is true, except for the part that incomplete games will be exclusives, Nintendo is not going to throw 130M installed base away to hype a console that simply won't be able to keep up with demand for 2 years. I believe third party exclusives, and 4K/60 for Nintendo games are more than enough.
Click to expand...
Timelines and leaks don't support the existence of Dane
 
hi hardware thread, I know I'm not supposed to be here sorry about that but don't worry about that

oldpuck said:
These ideas keep getting shot down as more and more info comes out. Meanwhile, some devs are talking. Reports of "PS4 plus DLSS" are coming out, matching Drake. Insiders are starting to hear about changes, but after the OLED debacle, no one is willing to talk about it until every possible avenue is covered.

In October partners are briefed and it is ... mixed. The device is now Switch 2, the next generation and will receive a huge marketing push. And a longer one. Nintendo doesn't want to repeat the short marketing cycle of the Wii U, they want to thoroughly sell the device, and prepare users to upgrade. They need 6-8 months to do that, plus they need to get their software library into shape.

DK, Mario, and any other unannounced game that wasn't finished are now all Drake exclusives. Everything else needs a gorgeous cross-gen upgrade. Every second party studio without anything else to do has been handed a 4k remake or remaster. This will all take time. Nintendo is planning to announce in early 2023, and launch by the holiday.

Nintendo will be fine, the Switch is still selling okay, and software sales are solid. But third parties are burned, and after a major rethink and delay, they're not trusting Nintendo's late 2023 timeline. Some start to talk, and those leaks hit us...
Click to expand...
I really love this narrative, even if it obviously can't be expected to be entirely accurate. In that vein, I have some opinions about what timing makes sense.

Here's a quote from NateDrake, August 3:

Simply quoting this post for ease of discussion sake & am in no way commenting on the claim in the tweet itself; but there has been significant movement/communication in recent weeks to partners.
Click to expand...

Obviously reconciling every piece of this puzzle is unrealistic, but it's just for fun. In that spirit, I suspect that even if he wasn't yet fully aware of the nature of the "significant movement," the change happened then. Even if this were true, it would probably have little bearing on release timing. All the same, I enjoy this sort of theorizing and feel strongly that the capital Big Moment happened earlier that we'd think.

Heck, things have been ambiguously weird for much longer, as you noted earlier today:

oldpuck said:
We definitely did, it was widely discussed - all three of us responded :) The source was Moore's Law Is Dead, who is widely ignored round here (and I utterly unfamiliar with), and it came up in late March. At the time Nate was planning his post Laspus$ podcast, which he said he was pursuing every avenue because he had no intention of covering it more than once. A few weeks after, when asked why the episode hadn't landed, Nate said

Something has come up concerning the subject matter & I want to investigate it further before addressing the topic. Releasing an episode & not investigating this particular bit of information would be ill-advised.
Click to expand...

Make of that what you will
Click to expand...
Investigating something that came up... I assume there wasn't any notion of cancellation or delay yet, but given where we are now the slow deafening of the murmurs in 2022 is of great interest to me.
 
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