Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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We're gonna need a source on this. Unless it's a shitpost, in which case I can't read internet sarcasm.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
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gimme more of that aluminium please. the kick stand was a good start
Can you at least link to the forum/thread?
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The wireless will work fine, you're just holding it wrong.I see you are keen on the idea of killing the wireless capability
In fact, a gaming forum where the XenoBlade2 always wins all matches.I didn't think there was a Nintendo fan forum in China.
Just curious.
https://bbs.saraba1st.com/2b/thread-2032549-132-1.html
Maybe you can understand Chinese
Let’s clear something up, those clouds were not volumetric. That was billboarding. Incredibly good billboarding to fool even DF, but still thats
What it was. Source: @brainchild
So the podcast today, is the same podcast that was delayed 2 days ago? @NateDrake?
olobolger
Tektite
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Thanks. People in that forum seems convinced about a 2022 release of the Nintendo Switch «big machine», like Google Translate puts it
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oh god I would love if it were actually named that
Kysen
Piranha Plant
The word '大的'(big) can be used to describe breaking news incoming in Chinese. So they use the word to refer to the new Switch.Thanks. People in that forum seems convinced about a 2022 release of the Nintendo Switch «big machine», like Google Translate puts it
Simba1
Bob-omb
I didn't think there was a Nintendo fan forum in China.
Just curious.
We talking about 1.4B people country,
so its quite safe to say they have fan forums for every possible thing (not to mention one of most popular gaming company in world).
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They are also the console market leader in China.We talking about 1.4B people country,
so its quite safe to say they have fan forums for every possible thing (not to mention one of most popular gaming company in world).
Simba1
Bob-omb
Talking about internet talks that Zelda BotW 2 must using stronger hardware,
its true that almost who is claiming that BotW 2 its running on stronger hardware, didnt count that Zelda BotW is basically made on 1st place to run on Wii U hardware and that we talking about Switch launch games, and that engine is now much more optimised for Switch hardware specifically and that game should look better than BotW 1 in any case.
But I don't think that comparison with PS3 hardware and Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 3 is good comparison,
despite point that by time you can squeeze more juice from every hardware compared to launch period (so that including Switch hardware).
In comparison Switch hardware is quite straightforward and simple, on other hand PS3 hardware and its Cell chip were very complex and hard for work so by time devs could squeeze much more juice from than they could on launch, thats why we having nigh and day difference examples like Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 3, so you cant really expect that kind of difference on Switch.
its true that almost who is claiming that BotW 2 its running on stronger hardware, didnt count that Zelda BotW is basically made on 1st place to run on Wii U hardware and that we talking about Switch launch games, and that engine is now much more optimised for Switch hardware specifically and that game should look better than BotW 1 in any case.
But I don't think that comparison with PS3 hardware and Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 3 is good comparison,
despite point that by time you can squeeze more juice from every hardware compared to launch period (so that including Switch hardware).
In comparison Switch hardware is quite straightforward and simple, on other hand PS3 hardware and its Cell chip were very complex and hard for work so by time devs could squeeze much more juice from than they could on launch, thats why we having nigh and day difference examples like Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 3, so you cant really expect that kind of difference on Switch.
But you didnt make any screenshot?
brainchild
Moblin
It seems that there is still a lot of confusion about the "volumetric cloud" claim by DF, so let me just repost the screens that I shared back on era.
As you can see below, the clouds have no geometric self-occlusion when the camera angle drastically changes, and the rotational parallax is consistent with billboarding (pay attention to the bottom of the croissant shaped cloud):
With an actual volumetric cloud, it would be physically impossible for the bottom of the cloud to still remain visible after going from a head-on view to an overhead view. The only explanation is that they're not actually volumetric.
That being said, the shading dynamically changes with respect to the camera angle, so it does give the impression that you're looking at different sides of the clouds as the camera angle changes, but you're not; it's just a very good illusion when combined with the blended billboard transitions.
As for the talk about BOTW 2 being too strong for the Switch, please, let's not do this again...
As you can see below, the clouds have no geometric self-occlusion when the camera angle drastically changes, and the rotational parallax is consistent with billboarding (pay attention to the bottom of the croissant shaped cloud):
With an actual volumetric cloud, it would be physically impossible for the bottom of the cloud to still remain visible after going from a head-on view to an overhead view. The only explanation is that they're not actually volumetric.
That being said, the shading dynamically changes with respect to the camera angle, so it does give the impression that you're looking at different sides of the clouds as the camera angle changes, but you're not; it's just a very good illusion when combined with the blended billboard transitions.
As for the talk about BOTW 2 being too strong for the Switch, please, let's not do this again...
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FWIW, even on the linked Chinese forum, they discredited the idea that it’s volumetricIt seems that there is still a lot of confusion about the "volumetric cloud" claim by DF, so let me just repost the screens that I shared back on era.
As you can see below, the clouds have no geometric self-occlusion when the camera angle drastically changes, and the rotational parallax is consistent with billboarding (pay attention to the bottom of the croissant shaped cloud):
With an actual volumetric cloud, it would be physically impossible for the bottom of the cloud to still remain visible after going from a head-on view to an overhead view. The only explanation is that they're not actually volumetric.
That being said, the shading dynamically changes with respect to the camera angle, so it does give the impression that you're looking at different sides of the clouds as the camera angle changes, but you're not; it's just a very good illusion when combined with the blended billboard transitions.
As for the talk about BOTW 2 being too strong for the Switch, please, let's not do this again...
, and they also discredited the idea that the switch doesn’t have a game with volumetrics of sorts going to reference Xenoblade in instances.But this aside, in the new footage we can see low quality textures in the background of Link. Anyone thinking that this is running on a newer switch hasn’t been paying too much attention!
KMStwo
Luma
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Interesting. I like when factory leaks starts. If true, we might be due to many more of them soon.
k samedi
Bob-omb
DF discussion on the topic was short but fun. They have loads of knowledge on these type of topics and I wouldn't discard their analysis as not paying attention. They probably know what they're talking about.FWIW, even on the linked Chinese forum, they discredited the idea that it’s volumetric
But this aside, in the new footage we can see low quality textures in the background of Link. Anyone thinking that this is running on a newer switch hasn’t been paying too much attention!
brainchild
Moblin
I'm friends with John and Alex, and appreciate the work that the DF crew does in general. That being said, sometimes they make mistakes and that's ok. I make mistakes all the time. I personally don't think they were all that serious about the BOTW 2 speculation and people are blowing it out of proportion. The only reason I'm even responding to that particular discussion is that I don't want people walking away with misinformation that I'm sure DF didn't even intend to give in the first place.
In this case, there is direct evidence in the BOTW 2 trailer that it's not using volumetric clouds, so I think it's safe to say that the assumption that the game uses volumetric clouds is an incorrect one absent any evidence that suggests otherwise.
They are also as vulnerable to confirmation bias as anyone else, and the post 4 posts above this literally disproves what they were saying about the clouds.
Saying botw 2 looks good is one thing, but framing it in a way relating it to new hardware is confirmation bias at work.
k samedi
Bob-omb
Oh yeah sure they can make mistakes, but people just dismissing them when they're the most knowladgeble people around on these topics is strange to say the least. I don't think they were very serious with their talks either but I have to see the arguments from their side too before I would dismiss them in any way.
Nintendo has top-notch artistic teams. Some people confuse great art and smart use of it for something technically advanced. Switch games can look awesome even without current gen technologies. Many Switch first party games look better to me than PS4 and even some PS5 exclusives or third party titles.
Switch sales continue to drop in Japan (we don't have worldwide data, so that's all we can look at right now)
61k sold, compared with 89k a year ago. The Switch has definitely passed the peak and is in the decline phase now, and it does not appear the OLED has done much to stop that.
Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006
Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
61k sold, compared with 89k a year ago. The Switch has definitely passed the peak and is in the decline phase now, and it does not appear the OLED has done much to stop that.
Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006
Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
Last year it was still mh rise release aftermath , so the comparison isn't fair tbh
I think it is, because we have the OLED and Kirby. I think the two of those together hold more value than Monster Hunter did for selling consoles. If anything I think the comparison is being too generous in regards to the decline. It's probably declining harder than it appears, and the OLED is masking it. I'd expect the OLED's influence to wane later in the year as the market for that saturates and for the gap to grow to more like 30-35%.
no, they don't
LiC
Member
When BotW 2 is released for the original Switch, the gameplay footage will all be replicable shot-for-shot, with the Switch version looking as good as the trailer or better. The version for the next Switch model, if it exists, will be enhanced on top of that. I don't understand why people never learn their lesson about this stuff when it comes to Nintendo. People said the exact same thing about the original BotW, which was also cross-platform! And they were wrong!
This is very debatable so I think it's quite childish to state this as a fact. Obviously a new Switch version is helping sell a lot of consoles. If you look at the breakdown of Switch sales in Japan, the OLED is consistently selling around 50% of the total sales each week. It's impossible to know exactly how many of those would have bought a Switch anyway, but I think it's fair to say a lot wouldn't, since many are likely people rebuying a second console.
Gobias-Ind
Rattata
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Nintendo's Ninjas are feared worldwide
Honestly an early 2023 release of Drake wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo thinks they can get adequate supply (a big IF). I'm pretty sure year 1 it could sell 25 million if they're selling 17-18 million of the Switch in its 6th year.
EDIT: completely unrelated but to avoid double posting, the specific breakdown is out and the OLED's share of the sales is also increasing. It sold 35k of the Switch's 61k this week. This really highlights my argument that the OLED may be hiding an otherwise very steep drop in Switch sales, and I don't think this is at all sustainable long term.
EDIT: completely unrelated but to avoid double posting, the specific breakdown is out and the OLED's share of the sales is also increasing. It sold 35k of the Switch's 61k this week. This really highlights my argument that the OLED may be hiding an otherwise very steep drop in Switch sales, and I don't think this is at all sustainable long term.
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If they go 7 nm node, then there will be enough capacity to make Drake. By the end of this year GPUs, CPUs, most of the smartphone chips... will be on 6 nm or lower. I'm not an expert, but it makes sense to me.
We'll see, it's hard to say. They're gonna need a lot of supply if they don't want massive scalping problems. Even with a higher price demand is gonna be enormous.
Thugstas
Bob-omb
Market foundry is are going so fast… 7 nm to 5 nm ( and so on ) ins’t more expensive….
Hosermess
Koopa
lol factory uncleNintendo's Ninjas are feared worldwide
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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lot of assumptions here not backed up by any real data!
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
This makes no sense as this was Switches second highest week 14. MH came out last year and the “drop” shouldn’t be surprising. And, yes MH is a stronger hardware mover then Kirby, that is not even debatable from the historic data between the two.
We have no data on OLED ownership so assuming anything is just weird.
Edit: this is not even getting into the European data that was released as well.
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Generally when you make predictions, for example, when Nintendo will launch the Drake, you have to rely on some assumptions. That's why it's a prediction, and not simply a fact. I don't know how you want me to make predictions without using any assumptions or guesswork, or perhaps you're suggesting we should not be making predictions in the future Nintendo hardware speculation thread.
When I say that Kirby and the OLED is probably a bigger hardware mover than MH was, that's primarily because of the OLED, not Kirby, sorry if I wasn't clear about that.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
I mean I understood it but the statement still stands since one or both are not on the same level as MH in terms of being hardware movers.
Smash Kirby
Bob-omb
A Robobot Sequel?
I'm genuinely curious for your answer, so here's a question for you. Do you believe most of the OLED sales are new customers or rebuys?
I'm using the assumption that the vast majority of OLED sales are rebuys. Perhaps you disagree with me.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
What do we define as the vast majority?
Personally I'd say anything north of 80%, and if I had to guess, I'd say over 90% are rebuys. But this is of course just a guess. But what I'm confident in is that the majority are rebuys. I'll be shocked if that doesn't turn out to be the case. I'm very confident that switch sales would be down about 40-50% vs a year ago if the OLED had not released.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I wonder if factory uncle is like "my uncle who works at Nintendo said."
Kysen
Piranha Plant
Yep '舅'/'舅舅'(uncle) is used to refer to insiders by Chinese gamers because of the 'my uncle who works at Nintendo' meme.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
I’m not sure I would say 80%. While I think there are more rebuys then new owners it wouldn’t surprise me to see the number be closer then most think. This is especially true as time moves on and the old unit is quietly replaced by the OLED and bundles.
Looking at the data we have I don’t think Switch would be down 40-50%. It is in fact up in places compared to last year. For instance the Europe sales we have show 9% increase from last March. So, while there probably will be a slow down I don’t think it in the tune of 40-50%. As long as Nintendo continue putting highly desirable software on the system they can stave off a slow decline, even perhaps gain overall.
We’ll see more of what their outlook is like though from the financial briefing in May.
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