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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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No it’s old. It’s been a firmware profile for years, there was even an erista version of it pre mariko.

All it shows is that Nintendo has considered this. Doesn’t mean it will ever release.
It’s also something that could release after the new switch releases, to help give the old system some life in its last years
 
I've only been following this stuff for around a year, but has MVG had insider info in the past? I get that he's knowledgeable and would have plenty of connections throughout the industry, but I don't think he was slyly dropping some big hint there. Most likely he was just being thorough and covering all options, which he has done in the past (like when he discussed the "no BC" as a possibility in an earlier podcast).
 
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Because it’s not what we thought it was?
MVG does work for a licensed Nintendo developer, which puts him in an awkward spot to talk about Nintendo leaks. Honestly kinda surprised he's kept doing it for this long, tbh.
Is this new? What’s this about
It's been there for ages. There's a lot of speculation that it's just a test board Nintendo uses internally, because it's a bit too minimal even for a Switch TV.
 


I still don't think TSMC's N6 process node can be discounted as a potential option for Nintendo and Nvidia since TSMC's N7 process node family is still very much profitable for TSMC, and TSMC's N7 process node family is still expected to be a long lasting process node, assuming Nintendo and Nvidia choose TSMC as the semiconductor foundry company of choice for the fabrication of Drake.

The need to reiterate N5 being a long lasting node makes me chuckle and wonder if there's some alternative timeline where N5 gets phased out by the time that fab in Arizona gets going in 2024 (that one's planned to be... N5-capable).

Outside of that one rumor of testing the limits of clocking up a TX1 die shrink on an N7 node, I don't think that we've heard anything else supporting (or rejecting, to be fair) Nvidia securing some N7 family capacity?
 
MVG does work for a licensed Nintendo developer, which puts him in an awkward spot to talk about Nintendo leaks. Honestly kinda surprised he's kept doing it for this long, tbh.
It really doesn't. We each understand that if he knows of a "leak" due to being briefed or having access to said hardware, then we simply do not discuss it or acknowledge it since he would be under NDA.
 
Outside of that one rumor of testing the limits of clocking up a TX1 die shrink on an N7 node, I don't think that we've heard anything else supporting (or rejecting, to be fair) Nvidia securing some N7 family capacity?
Nvidia has been using TSMC's N7 process node for the fabrication of datacentre chips (e.g. A100, Nvidia Quantum-2, ConnectX-7). Although I don't know about the current status of the A100 in terms of availability, Nvidia mentioned on 8 December 2020 that some of the demand for the A100 won't be fulfilled until several months later. And TSMC mentioned expecting most customers to transition to TSMC's N6 process node from TSMC's N7 process node.
 
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It really doesn't. We each understand that if he knows of a "leak" due to being briefed or having access to said hardware, then we simply do not discuss it or acknowledge it since he would be under NDA.
Which pretty much translates to he is just speculating and knows nothing about Drake - while you do know new stuff (in addition to devkits are out, DLSS, end of this or early next year) but aren't talking about it yet as you still need to verify your new information? Correct?
 
It really doesn't. We each understand that if he knows of a "leak" due to being briefed or having access to said hardware, then we simply do not discuss it or acknowledge it since he would be under NDA.

It's ok Nate! Upon reading this, I knew I could find the answer, that works for everyone, and after five seconds of Google, I found a wiki how guide to getting around an NDA, with an ironclad solution.

v4-460px-Get-out-of-a-Nondisclosure-Agreement-Step-4-Version-2.jpg.webp


I can't believe no one's thought of this before.
 
Which pretty much translates to he is just speculating and knows nothing about Drake - while you do know new stuff (in addition to devkits are out, DLSS, end of this or early next year) but aren't talking about it yet as you still need to verify your new information? Correct?
He was definitely speculating and just talking of possibilities with the answer given.

The only reason we have not discussed NVN2 is that we simply are not ready to do so & I want to clear a piece of information before addressing it.
 
Cross-posting my transcript of what MVG said in the most recent Nate the Hate podcast:
"

Starts at 1:13:44 and ends at 1:15:02
"
Honestly, it's pure speculation and not worth going in circles again because of what he said. It might be a deflection on his part, it might be countless reasons.
If I had to add an opinion of my own, maybe "a few more plays in the book" he refers could be a Switch Lite OLED, which has been speculated by some youtubers, Jeff Grub, etc. Given Pokémon is coming this year and Nintendo likes to offer a cheap SKU to go along with new Pokémon releases, it's a possibility. Although a very slim one and that doesn't make much sense imo.

Correction on the quote:

MVG: “could be…I’m not going to say it’s going to be X1 again…”

Nate: * laughs * “oh god”

MVG: “but there may be a few more plays in the book here before know ultimately what we’re gonna get”
___

Don’t want people running with the idea that MVG was humoring X1++. They admit that they’re speculating it’s going to be Drake just before this. The only point being made is that until it’s actually public knowledge, there’s always room for the unknown in these discussions. Nothing new here.
 
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Correction on the quote:

MVG: “could be…I’m not going to say it’s going to be X1 again…”

Nate: * laughs * “oh god”

MVG: “but there may be a few more plays in the book here before know ultimately what we’re gonna get”
___

Don’t want people running with the idea that MVG was humoring X1++. They admit that they’re speculating it’s going to be Drake just before this. The only point being made is that until it’s actually public knowledge, there’s always room for the unknown in these discussions. Nothing new here.
I see. Thank you for correcting me! Wasn't sure of that part. He talks a little bit too fast.
 
He was definitely speculating and just talking of possibilities with the answer given.

The only reason we have not discussed NVN2 is that we simply are not ready to do so & I want to clear a piece of information before addressing it.
Is the hack itself not clear enough?

We kinda have a few things down thanks to just looking at the hack itself
  1. There is a new API for Nintendo made by NVIDIA called NVN2
  2. NVN2 supports DLSS and RT and has the GPU for an SoC called Drake (Codenamed T239)
  3. Drake/T239 has a 12SM GPU with 1:1 on SM/RT Cores and is an Ampere-family GPU due to its GA- Designation (GA10F)
    • 1536 CUDA Cores
    • 12RT cores
    • 48 Tensor cores
    • 1.5MB L1 (128KB L1 per SM like Desktop Ampere)
    • 1 to 4MB L2 Cache
  4. NVN2 has the hooks for TX1/Pascal GPUs ripped out, meaning it has to be a new SoC on a new Architecture (Further corroborating #3 and that #2 would get used)
  5. The "last edit" dates for files give us a loose timeline of how development for NVN2 has been and seems to line up with the devkit timeline you yourself mentioned before (NVN2 started being worked on in late 2019, which lines up with first-round devkits going out at the end of 2020)
As for how strong the system will be, that is up to interpretation but based on even just simple TFLOP calculations and the statistic that GCN (PS4/Xbone gen systems) are similar in FLOP-Efficiency to Ampere, assuming no IPC increase for Drake that would mean even at 768MHz the system would be a 2.36TFLOP machine before DLSS and in an optimized setting Ampere should have even more headroom as it has features beyond DLSS/RT that GCN lacks so it's more than just 32% better than PS4 in that case.

And if it has the 4MB L2 that likely would increase the value of a Drake TFLOP versus Ampere and GCN like Infinity Cache does

That is still pretty big stuff at least if it can indeed be validated against your previous info.
 
Is the hack itself not clear enough?

We kinda have a few things down thanks to just looking at the hack itself
  1. There is a new API for Nintendo made by NVIDIA called NVN2
  2. NVN2 supports DLSS and RT and has the GPU for an SoC called Drake (Codenamed T239)
  3. Drake/T239 has a 12SM GPU with 1:1 on SM/RT Cores and is an Ampere-family GPU due to its GA- Designation (GA10F)
    • 1536 CUDA Cores
    • 12RT cores
    • 48 Tensor cores
    • 1.5MB L1 (128KB L1 per SM like Desktop Ampere)
    • 1 to 4MB L2 Cache
  4. NVN2 has the hooks for TX1/Pascal GPUs ripped out, meaning it has to be a new SoC on a new Architecture (Further corroborating #3 and that #2 would get used)
  5. The "last edit" dates for files give us a loose timeline of how development for NVN2 has been and seems to line up with the devkit timeline you yourself mentioned before (NVN2 started being worked on in late 2019, which lines up with first-round devkits going out at the end of 2020)
As for how strong the system will be, that is up to interpretation but based on even just simple TFLOP calculations and the statistic that GCN (PS4/Xbone gen systems) are similar in FLOP-Efficiency to Ampere, assuming no IPC increase for Drake that would mean even at 768MHz the system would be a 2.36TFLOP machine before DLSS and in an optimized setting Ampere should have even more headroom as it has features beyond DLSS/RT that GCN lacks so it's more than just 32% better than PS4 in that case.

And if it has the 4MB L2 that likely would increase the value of a Drake TFLOP versus Ampere and GCN like Infinity Cache does

That is still pretty big stuff at least if it can indeed be validated against your previous info.
And the majority of that has been discussed since last year.

We knew it is a new SoC. That was known before the leak since DLSS is not possible on X1.

The leak assisted in validating what was reported last year. We don't need to cycle through it again and reconfirm what was said several times last year.

The thread may enjoy talking in circles every few days, but it is not something I have interest in doing.
 
And the majority of that has been discussed since last year.

We knew it is a new SoC. That was known before the leak since DLSS is not possible on X1.

The leak assisted in validating what was reported last year. We don't need to cycle through it again and reconfirm what was said several times last year.

The thread may enjoy talking in circles every few days, but it is not something I have interest in doing.
Fair, it's just a bit annoying seeing people doomposting about "Drake may not exist" or "Drake isn't next" despite the NVN2 leak heavily indicating that both in fact are true.
 
Fair, it's just a bit annoying seeing people doomposting about "Drake may not exist" or "Drake isn't next" despite the NVN2 leak heavily indicating that both in fact are true.
If people want to doubt that such hardware exists, let them. The devkits exist. They have been distributed. That's 100% fact. I know of games being built with the kit. Such things are not a matter of debate.
 
I take it the XB2 clouds in the starting area are the same? They look stunning and so voluminous / fluffy.

Actually, the volumetric clouds in XB2 are a combination of semi-transparent 2D layers and 3D noise/fog. The devs used special shading on certain layers to give the appearance of self-shadowing within the clouds, and they used the noise to give the "clouds" the appearance of volume by filling and blending the spaces between the layers. The billowing/dissipation is procedural. It's pretty convincing from afar but falls apart upon close inspection.

The game still uses a traditional skybox with artistic clouds for far viewing distances.
 
There are always just 2 simple questions regarding next Switch HW:

1) When it will be release (just a window)
2) How does it stand against Sony and Microsoft old/new gen consoles (that means XOne, PS4, XOne X, PS4 Pro, XSeries S/X, PS5) on docked profile without DLSS. This means as a general aproximation on what to expect regarding image quality.
 
If people want to doubt that such hardware exists, let them. The devkits exist. They have been distributed. That's 100% fact. I know of games being built with the kit. Such things are not a matter of debate.
Yeah, exactly.

Although I don't personally understand Grubb and MVG's idea of 2024 for the system as based on your timeline that would be one of the longest devkit cycles in modern times and considering how secretive Nintendo is it would be very weird.

Not asking if that is in fact the case, I just find it hard to believe that Nintendo would let developers have devkits upwards of 3 years before launch, even 2.5 Years is stretching it for near-final (Which Orin would constitute) to release.

There are always just 2 simple questions regarding next Switch HW:

1) When it will be release (just a window)
2) How does it stand against Sony and Microsoft old/new gen consoles (that means XOne, PS4, XOne X, PS4 Pro, XSeries S/X, PS5) on docked profile without DLSS. This means as a general aproximation on what to expect regarding image quality.
I will say #1 is still unknown (although TBH I am still saying within Nintendo's FY23 (Up until the end of March 2023))

Although for #2, that is the most interesting part as we are seeing a massive generational leap tech-wise over GCN/Polaris in the 8th Gen systems with features beyond DLSS and RT that Ampere has which those lack (Tile-Based Rasterization .etc)

Not to mention that Drake likely will have a uArch slightly better than Ampere if they go with 4MB of L2 Cache which like AMD's Infinity cache for the Desktop/Dedicated RDNA2 Cards, should increase IPC and per-FLOP efficiency a fair bit.

So say, 3TFLOP Ampere likely would be able to beat PS4 Pro's Native output before DLSS because of all the new features and better support for APIs.etc and if the IPC uplift from the Cache is big enough and/or they can get more of Ampere's potential performance in Compute tasks to apply to optimized games (which is the problem on PC Ampere), 2.5TFLOPs Drake likely could even match up to native PS4 Pro (That is only 815Mhz, OG Docked Clocks for Switch would be a 2.36TFLOP machine)

And because of Drake being on a far better node than the 8th gen systems and the 20nm OG Switch which Mariko is still clock-beholden to, Drake could likely push past 1GHz which it only would need to hit 1.63GHz docked on the GPU to match the Series S before DLSS in regards to raw raster.
 
If people want to doubt that such hardware exists, let them. The devkits exist. They have been distributed. That's 100% fact. I know of games being built with the kit. Such things are not a matter of debate.

Do you think you’ll ever be able to comment on the games you’re aware of - i.e. Are you excited about any of them personally? Do you expect any of them to be real showcases for the new tech?
 
Nintendo's incredible art design rendered in 4K will give me life when it's finally revealed. Just knowing that this hardware is in the works, being tested, and not vaporware is so exciting.
 
they use ray marching
z_5b7e71afcc7d9.jpg

z_5b7e71afc8559.jpg

y_5b7e71afb0e37.jpg


z_5b7e71afc46b7.jpg

z_5b7e71afd5054.jpg


z_5b7e71afc0832.jpg

Thanks for this.

I always wondered what algorithm they used to determine where/how much to shade the layers and it looks like it's the fairly standard method. This makes sense since the pipeline is already set up for screen space reflections. That being said, the ray marching is just for testing visibility in order to determine what should be rendered on each slice and how it should look (it also looks like they solved the transparency sorting with this), but they're still using layered geometry slicing to comprise the cloud models (before their respective pixel outputs have been determed) and then added the noise to make them look like clouds instead of white lumps of clay.

If you manage to get very close to the clouds, the ray marching breaks down and you can see the layers that comprise the clouds.

EDIT:

This is the geometric foundation for each layer in the cloud model (grid-based polygons)

z_5b7e71afa9136.jpg


  • Polygons with evenly arranged surfaces
  • Move vertices in real-time
  • Often used for water surface expression


Main difference compared to water surfaces is how selective the transparency is along the surface of each layer since the layers are meant to work together to comprise the three dimensional appearance of the cloud models.

EDIT 2:

Also looks like they used a Perlin-Worley hybrid for the noise. I figured Perlin was used, but now it explains why I wasn't quite able to pin down the method. Didn't know it was a hybrid!
 
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To our friends in the other forum that are reading this.

Your secret is safe with us, none of us work for Nintendo directly🤭. Nor do we report to them at all.

And yes uncle is what it is referred to world wide, a saying of “my uncle works at Nintendo”

Yes there are Xenoblade fans here as well.😊

And yes, what you refer to as “Nintendo assassins” is called “Nintendo ninjas” here in the west.

Also, hello!

Update: Some of us discuss what happens in a much more private place that cannot be accessed to the outside world anyway unless given permission or mentioned intentionally. We also agree to not really discuss it much outside of the secret place to protect people from losing their jobs. 👍
 
And the majority of that has been discussed since last year.

We knew it is a new SoC. That was known before the leak since DLSS is not possible on X1.

The leak assisted in validating what was reported last year. We don't need to cycle through it again and reconfirm what was said several times last year.

The thread may enjoy talking in circles every few days, but it is not something I have interest in doing.
Nobody discussed 12SM when we were working under the assumption of an 8nm chip. The best case scenario was seen as 8sm, with as low as 4 sm seen as likely.

The leak is confirmation the chip is substantially larger than anyone here thought, and makes 8 nm an unlikely node.

It also Indicates Nintendo has much bigger plans for this chip, than running switch games in higher fidelity.
 
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Immediately after? lol How would anyone know that you actually knew about those and aren't just "It's true"ing your way into being right?
This is an indecent take. Nate didn't say he was going to say "I heard about this one" after reveal. He was being asked about commenting about the special things about titles, and he has previously mentioned that he prefers not to take away from reveals by revealing the big hooks and qualities of unannounced titles. That means he isn't trying to stake his credentials on specific titles, and that's his prerogative. Not everything a known insider says has to fit into this narrow pissing contest of "I am very insider about this".

Instead, look at what he does state and judge by that. He has been right (it seems from what we can gather from the NVIDIA leak) about tech details like DLSS and the ARM A78 (and was the first one to put out those specifics), but less so about the release timing.
 
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And the majority of that has been discussed since last year.

We knew it is a new SoC. That was known before the leak since DLSS is not possible on X1.

The leak assisted in validating what was reported last year. We don't need to cycle through it again and reconfirm what was said several times last year.

The thread may enjoy talking in circles every few days, but it is not something I have interest in doing.
So you would agree that NVN2/ Drake is the platform you've heard about and the one devs possess devkits with games slated for 2022/23?

In that case I understand that there is not more for you to dive into them what's already discuss here and I hope the new information you'll hopefully be able to share at one point actually shines light on branding and release timing, as that's the big unknown then.
 
The only reason we have not discussed NVN2 is that we simply are not ready to do so & I want to clear a piece of information before addressing it.

This may not be something you can reveal, but I was just wondering if this piece of information that you need to clear up is related to the architecture or specific features of the device, or rather if this information is related to production and release timing.
 
Update: Some of us discuss what happens in a much more private place that cannot be accessed to the outside world anyway unless given permission or mentioned intentionally. We also agree to not really discuss it much outside of the secret place to protect people from losing their jobs. 👍
This just kinda piqued my curiosity, sorry, but the comment about protecting people’s jobs - is there actually substantial information about this hardware or the games coming to it being shared there?! Like, there are more leaks out there than the rest of us are aware of?
 
This just kinda piqued my curiosity, sorry, but the comment about protecting people’s jobs - is there actually substantial information about this hardware or the games coming to it being shared there?! Like, there are more leaks out there than the rest of us are aware of?
If there are devkits and software being developed. . . Someone is working on those things.

What constitutes a leak? Two folks under NDA comparing notes on how to deliver solutions on the same product under NDA, when it hits the enthusiast arena, or when it hits the general public?
 
This just kinda piqued my curiosity, sorry, but the comment about protecting people’s jobs - is there actually substantial information about this hardware or the games coming to it being shared there?! Like, there are more leaks out there than the rest of us are aware of?
No, there aren't additional leaks being shared in the Discord or wherever else. Not about Drake, anyway.
 
Is their "industry source" a Samsung Foundry employee? Because there's something else the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and the Exynos 2200 have in common...
The Dimensity 9000 is exhibiting similar behavior.

The X2 cores are the problem here, as the 8000 is working fine with just 4 A710s rather than 1 X2 and 3 A710s.
 
Is their "industry source" a Samsung Foundry employee? Because there's something else the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and the Exynos 2200 have in common...
I don't think so since the industry source in the Business Korea article mentioned that "The application processors have been designed by ARM, the same problems have been confirmed in both of those manufactured by Samsung Electronics and TSMC, and thus it can be said that the cause is not the manufacturers but the designer". I don't think a Samsung Foundry employee could have information about Arm's Cortex-A and Cortex-X Armv9 CPU designs having performance and power efficiency issues with Samsung and TSMC. And Qualcomm has been rumoured to switch to TSMC for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1.

On an off-topic note, I don't think one of the "experts" knows what he's talking about when he's talking about Apple Silicon, because I'm sure Apple doesn't use Arm's designs, but rather Arm's ISA.

The X2 cores are the problem here, as the 8000 is working fine with just 4 A710s rather than 1 X2 and 3 A710s.
The Dimensity 8000's actually using 4 Cortex-A78 cores, not 4 Cortex-A710 cores.
 
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I think NateDrake can answer this and it doesn’t give anything specific away

the information your waiting for, would you consider it good news or bad news to how people on here would react
 
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If there are devkits and software being developed. . . Someone is working on those things.

What constitutes a leak? Two folks under NDA comparing notes on how to deliver solutions on the same product under NDA, when it hits the enthusiast arena, or when it hits the general public?
I take your point about what constitutes a leak, definitely. But your post makes it sound like there are devs working with those kits that are posting in the discord/wherever (in a vague, NDA way)? Am I reading you right? Just very cool if so.
 
So, if I understand correctly, there is 0 chance that a "middle model" will be released between the release of Switch Oled and Switch Drake.
Otherwise it would have been mentioned in the Nvidia leak (or past ones), right?
 
So, if I understand correctly, there is 0 chance that a "middle model" will be released between the release of Switch Oled and Switch Drake.
Otherwise it would have been mentioned in the Nvidia leak (or past ones), right?
Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence yada yada, but if it exists it doesn’t use nvn 2 which means it’s probably has a maxwell based gpu.

Since we heard zero rumblings of such a model, it’s pretty safe to say it doesn’t exist.
 
Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence yada yada, but if it exists it doesn’t use nvn 2 which means it’s probably has a maxwell based gpu.

Since we heard zero rumblings of such a model, it’s pretty safe to say it doesn’t exist.
I guess so.

Unless new info pops up in firmware in the next few months or something regarding a smaller oled screen, I don't see a new lite model on the horizon either.
 
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So, if I understand correctly, there is 0 chance that a "middle model" will be released between the release of Switch Oled and Switch Drake.
Otherwise it would have been mentioned in the Nvidia leak (or past ones), right?
I wouldn't say the evidence we have completely rules out the possibility, but it does make it seem very unlikely.
 
Now that we're midway through April, I'm starting to have some doubts on a 2022 release.

Nintendo released a new Switch model last year, and Bloomberg and other outlets were all over it last spring. This year (so far) has been completely quiet.

I would have to think that if a brand new model was set to be released just 6 months from now that certainly we would have a new Bloomberg article or reporting from some other major outlet about production and manufacturing starting up. But we haven't had anything.

If we go another ~4 weeks or so with zero news, that I think it's safe to say that a 2022 release would definitely be out of the picture.
 
Now that we're midway through April, I'm starting to have some doubts on a 2022 release.

Nintendo released a new Switch model last year, and Bloomberg and other outlets were all over it last spring. This year (so far) has been completely quiet.

I would have to think that if a brand new model was set to be released just 6 months from now that certainly we would have a new Bloomberg article or reporting from some other major outlet about production and manufacturing starting up. But we haven't had anything.

If we go another ~4 weeks or so with zero news, that I think it's safe to say that a 2022 release would definitely be out of the picture.
Team March 2023👍
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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