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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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BobNintendofan said:
Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006

Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
Click to expand...
I think you have a lot of these hardware peaks too late. Every full Wii year was less than the one before in Japan, while worldwide things peaked early 2009. GameCube was mostly the same except 2004 was slightly higher than 2003 in Japan, but worldwide its peak was late 2002/early 2003. In Japan and worldwide 3DS's peak was about late 2012.
 
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I don't know if I believe this, but here's a possibility I've recently thought of.
What if -
The switch was originally supposed to get a pro version in 2021, to be replaced by a sequel around 2024-2025
but then the chip shortage caused them to kill the pro, because they wouldn't be able to sell it, so they made the OLED instead
and then took the pro chip they already made, asked Nvidia to bump it up, and plan to release it as a sequel in 2023 instead (due to the lower sales in 2022/2023 with no pro)

It would line up with the chip being rumored to be on 8nm, yet the leaked specs not looking like an 8nm device. It would explain all the rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened. And it also fits in with Nintendo's sales projections. Nintendo expected to sell 25.5 million consoles in 2021, and it looks like sales will be more like 21-22m. If they expected to release a pro, I think they could have done the 25.5 they expected. And it makes business sense too. If you spent all this money on R&D for a pro GPU to get a 4k switch, why not just build off that and release is later, instead of throwing it out?
 
Skittzo said:
I'm on that train for life

BOTW2 doesn't mean anything, they aren't going to delay the hardware unless the hardware needs more time.
Click to expand...
Whatever I’m team spring 23. Not like they never delayed hardware for games before, and we do not know for sure what they original dates were.

We’ll see.
 
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BobNintendofan said:
I don't know if I believe this, but here's a possibility I've recently thought of.
What if -
The switch was originally supposed to get a pro version in 2021, to be replaced by a sequel around 2024-2025
but then the chip shortage caused them to kill the pro, because they wouldn't be able to sell it, so they made the OLED instead
and then took the pro chip they already made, asked Nvidia to bump it up, and plan to release it as a sequel in 2023 instead (due to the lower sales in 2022/2023 with no pro)

It would line up with the chip being rumored to be on 8nm, yet the leaked specs not looking like an 8nm device. It would explain all the rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened. And it also fits in with Nintendo's sales projections. Nintendo expected to sell 25.5 million consoles in 2021, and it looks like sales will be more like 21-22m. If they expected to release a pro, I think they could have done the 25.5 they expected. And it makes business sense too. If you spent all this money on R&D for a pro GPU to get a 4k switch, why not just build off that and release is later, instead of throwing it out?
Click to expand...
Imo the signs for oled were there all along, clear as day in the firmware (aula). A lot of people here just didn’t want to believe them, and those Bloomberg articles sure didn’t help the Aula believers case.
 
Hermii said:
Imo the signs for oled were there all along, clear as day in the firmware (aula). A lot of people here just didn’t want to believe them, and those Bloomberg articles sure didn’t help the Aula believers case.
Click to expand...
Was the OLED ever confirmed to be aula? I never read anything about that.
 
BobNintendofan said:
Switch sales continue to drop in Japan (we don't have worldwide data, so that's all we can look at right now)
61k sold, compared with 89k a year ago. The Switch has definitely passed the peak and is in the decline phase now, and it does not appear the OLED has done much to stop that.

Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006

Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
Click to expand...
Er, the 3DS peaked way before that, like 2012.

Wii peaked in like 2007/2008, not 2011/12.

Thing was dead there.

GameCube peaked way before that.

DS peaked like 2009 and declined from there.

Anyway, I think it’s misguided to start looking at japan right now when it is more often a seasonal thing and cannibalization of a product. Switch has had low numbers like this before, this isn’t a first.

The switch OG is at an all time low, and the OLED is very constrained right now, but the OLED is what is maintaining it’s sales numbers and increases when there’s a big shipment that gets reported (on IB). The Lite doesn’t see much fluctuation either.

And even upon further analysis on IB, this doesn’t seem like actual saturation. It’s doing much better than even the 3DS in japan during this time, selling 3x or so what the 3DS was doing weekly.

And the 3DS wasn’t a weak system either in Japan, doing 24M lifetime.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Er, the 3DS peaked way before that, like 2012.

Wii peaked in like 2007/2008, not 2011/12.

Thing was dead there.

GameCube peaked way before that.

DS peaked like 2009 and declined from there.

Anyway, I think it’s misguided to start looking at japan right now when it is more often a seasonal thing and cannibalization of a product. Switch has had low numbers like this before, this isn’t a first.

The switch OG is at an all time low, and the OLED is very constrained right now, but the OLED is what is maintaining it’s sales numbers and increases when there’s a big shipment that gets reported (on IB). The Lite doesn’t see much fluctuation either.

And even upon further analysis on IB, this doesn’t seem like actual saturation. It’s doing much better than even the 3DS in japan during this time, selling 3x or so what the 3DS was doing weekly.

And the 3DS wasn’t a weak system either in Japan, doing 24M lifetime.
Click to expand...
When I talk about decline I'm not referring to dropping from one freak year. In the context of the Switch it technically peaked in 2020 and has been declining ever since then. However, I can recognize that this was due to covid. So what I am looking for is when a sustained period of high sales turns into a sustained period of lower sales, which is what we're seeing with the switch now. So for example, I don't consider the Wii to be "on the decline" after 2008. The Wii had a sustained period of much lower sales from quarter 4 2010 until quarter 3 2011, so that's where I consider it to be on the decline for the purpose of this discussion. Switch sales appear to be starting to enter such a decline here, being held up only by the recent release of the OLED, but I expect that effect to continue to wane over time and that by later in this year we will see it dropping 40% vs a year ago.


Also I'll just say this is something I see a lot here, where people try to poke holes in an argument not by arguing with the point but by arguing with semantics or technicalities. "Well technically the 3DS had a really great year when they dropped the price $90 so it was on the decline after that" I mean, I guess so? But it's quite pedantic to say that. Clearly the point I was trying to make is that when a console starts consistently dropping a lot from normal sales numbers that it's declining, and that usually such consoles are replaced in a few years, which is common sense when you think about it.
 
If late this year, then Metroid Prime HD would be an awesome launch title. It'd demonstrate a huge leap from the original 20 year old Gamecube release and be a graphical showcase in 4K 60 fps. Also some nice synergy with Dread releasing with the OLED last year.
 
So on Nate's most recent podcast MVG suggested that Drake may not be the next console, and that there may be a few other plays from Nintendo before Drake becomes reality.
 
Sol said:
So on Nate's most recent podcast MVG suggested that Drake may not be the next console, and that there may be a few other plays from Nintendo before Drake becomes reality.
Click to expand...
Doubtful they'd be working on NVN2 this early if Drake isn't out by 2023.

Not to mention that the data has Devkit testing mentions and also update times which indicate it's been worked on even since 2019
 
BobNintendofan said:
Switch sales continue to drop in Japan (we don't have worldwide data, so that's all we can look at right now)
61k sold, compared with 89k a year ago. The Switch has definitely passed the peak and is in the decline phase now, and it does not appear the OLED has done much to stop that.

Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006

Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
Click to expand...
In Japan Switch has already peaked in 2020 (in US too).
However 2021 was still an exceptionally strong year and 2022 will also be a very good year (likely between 4M and 5M).
In Japan any annual hardware sales over 3M is considered "great" (market leading "great").

Graph by @hiska-kun
2022-04-14-15-02-53.jpg
 
BobNintendofan said:
I don't know if I believe this, but here's a possibility I've recently thought of.
What if -
The switch was originally supposed to get a pro version in 2021, to be replaced by a sequel around 2024-2025
but then the chip shortage caused them to kill the pro, because they wouldn't be able to sell it, so they made the OLED instead
and then took the pro chip they already made, asked Nvidia to bump it up, and plan to release it as a sequel in 2023 instead (due to the lower sales in 2022/2023 with no pro)

It would line up with the chip being rumored to be on 8nm, yet the leaked specs not looking like an 8nm device. It would explain all the rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened. And it also fits in with Nintendo's sales projections. Nintendo expected to sell 25.5 million consoles in 2021, and it looks like sales will be more like 21-22m. If they expected to release a pro, I think they could have done the 25.5 they expected. And it makes business sense too. If you spent all this money on R&D for a pro GPU to get a 4k switch, why not just build off that and release is later, instead of throwing it out?
Click to expand...
It would make sense. Dane was the Pro. Drake was Dane enhanced, Dane was dropped for Drake. Switch 2 instead of Switch Pro. OLED extended the gen for them.
 
BobNintendofan said:
I don't know if I believe this, but here's a possibility I've recently thought of.
What if -
The switch was originally supposed to get a pro version in 2021, to be replaced by a sequel around 2024-2025
but then the chip shortage caused them to kill the pro, because they wouldn't be able to sell it, so they made the OLED instead
and then took the pro chip they already made, asked Nvidia to bump it up, and plan to release it as a sequel in 2023 instead (due to the lower sales in 2022/2023 with no pro)

It would line up with the chip being rumored to be on 8nm, yet the leaked specs not looking like an 8nm device. It would explain all the rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened. And it also fits in with Nintendo's sales projections. Nintendo expected to sell 25.5 million consoles in 2021, and it looks like sales will be more like 21-22m. If they expected to release a pro, I think they could have done the 25.5 they expected. And it makes business sense too. If you spent all this money on R&D for a pro GPU to get a 4k switch, why not just build off that and release is later, instead of throwing it out?
Click to expand...
One thing about the "rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened" part: when the 2021 Pro rumors got really heavy, Nate said in one of his E3-adjacent podcasts that those rumors weren't lining up with the info he had, which was that the developers who were working on games for a 4K DLSS Switch were told to have their games ready for launch in late 2022, for either a holiday 2022 or possibly early 2023 release. So I think holiday '22 to March '23 was kinda always the plan for the DLSSwitch and the OLED was always gonna be the OLED.
(please correct me if I'm wrong on this, Nate)
 
Hermii said:
Let’s clear something up, those clouds were not volumetric. That was billboarding. Incredibly good billboarding to fool even DF, but still thats
What it was. Source: @brainchild
Click to expand...
Ah cool didn’t see his post. Apologies.

I take it the XB2 clouds in the starting area are the same? They look stunning and so voluminous / fluffy.
 
BobNintendofan said:
I don't know if I believe this, but here's a possibility I've recently thought of.
What if -
The switch was originally supposed to get a pro version in 2021, to be replaced by a sequel around 2024-2025
but then the chip shortage caused them to kill the pro, because they wouldn't be able to sell it, so they made the OLED instead
and then took the pro chip they already made, asked Nvidia to bump it up, and plan to release it as a sequel in 2023 instead (due to the lower sales in 2022/2023 with no pro)

It would line up with the chip being rumored to be on 8nm, yet the leaked specs not looking like an 8nm device. It would explain all the rumors of a pro in 2021, that never happened. And it also fits in with Nintendo's sales projections. Nintendo expected to sell 25.5 million consoles in 2021, and it looks like sales will be more like 21-22m. If they expected to release a pro, I think they could have done the 25.5 they expected. And it makes business sense too. If you spent all this money on R&D for a pro GPU to get a 4k switch, why not just build off that and release is later, instead of throwing it out?
Click to expand...
Evidence points pretty strongly towards Switch OLED never being anything other than what it finally released as. There were disagreements around the launch timing that strongly suggests some conflation was afoot.

It's much more believable that the Mariko hybrid was a plan B than Switch OLED.
 
Celine said:
In Japan Switch has already peaked in 2020 (in US too).
However 2021 was still an exceptionally strong year and 2022 will also be a very good year (likely between 4M and 5M).
In Japan any annual hardware sales over 3M is considered "great" (market leading "great").

Graph by @hiska-kun
2022-04-14-15-02-53.jpg
Click to expand...
What do you think Worldwide sales will be by the next financial results?
 
0
Cross-posting my transcript of what MVG said in the most recent Nate the Hate podcast:
"
MVG:
"It just depends on how it's marketed. And honestly, it's gonna be Drake? Do you even know that for a fact? You don't really know. We speculate, but honestly could be anything. Could be, I must say, an X1 again?(Muffled laughter from Nate and "Oh god"?) There's maybe a few more plays in the book before we know, ultimately, what we gonna get. "
Click to expand...
Starts at 1:13:44 and ends at 1:15:02
"
Honestly, it's pure speculation and not worth going in circles again because of what he said. It might be a deflection on his part, it might be countless reasons.
If I had to add an opinion of my own, maybe "a few more plays in the book" he refers could be a Switch Lite OLED, which has been speculated by some youtubers, Jeff Grub, etc. Given Pokémon is coming this year and Nintendo likes to offer a cheap SKU to go along with new Pokémon releases, it's a possibility. Although a very slim one and that doesn't make much sense imo.
 
BlueManifest said:
How’s it looking for switch to sell more than DS life time?
Click to expand...
It's possible. But that would depend on Nintendo keeping the Switch alive after the new model comes and when the new model will come(As a new model will crater the sales of the predecessor model). Switch will be reported at ~105/6 million units sold in Nintendo Q4/FY22 shareholders meeting. And it will probably sell at least 20 million units this FY23. So by March 31 2023, I predict Switch to be at 125 million units sold at minimum. From there on, is anyone guess as it would depend on Nintendo market strategy.
 
BobNintendofan said:
Switch sales continue to drop in Japan (we don't have worldwide data, so that's all we can look at right now)
61k sold, compared with 89k a year ago. The Switch has definitely passed the peak and is in the decline phase now, and it does not appear the OLED has done much to stop that.

Some comparisons from when other consoles started to enter the decline phase after their peak and when the next one released:
PS4: 2018 - 2020
3DS: 2015 - 2017
Wii: 2011 - 2012
Gamecube: 2004 - 2006

Generally when sales start declining big we see a new console within around 2 years, which kind of just makes sense.
Click to expand...

Its seems that in Europe is doing better than last year.

 
Last year the OLED and DLSS model got mixed up.

This year it’s gonna end up being the Switch Lite OLED or Switch TV lol.
 
OMG a 4K Switch is real!!!! Coming soon!!!

[Nintendo Direct happens]]]

Nintendo guy: We are happy to unveil Switch TV. We partnered with Vizio and will be releasing 4K TVs with Switch functionality.

[[[Small letters at the bottom of the screen]]]

Switch games run between 304p to 1080p depending on the software.
 
Quoted by: 10k
1
BlueManifest said:
What about developers having DLSS dev kits and being told to have software ready by late 2022 has that changed?
Click to expand...
Kevin said:
OMG a 4K Switch is real!!!! Coming soon!!!

[Nintendo Direct happens]]]

Nintendo guy: We are happy to unveil Switch TV. We partnered with Vizio and will be releasing 4K TVs with Switch functionality.

[[[Small letters at the bottom of the screen]]]

Switch games run between 304p to 1080p depending on the software.
Click to expand...
BlueManifest said:
What about developers having DLSS dev kits and being told to have software ready by late 2022 has that changed?
Click to expand...
Maybe Nate was misinformed or plans changed?
Kevin said:
OMG a 4K Switch is real!!!! Coming soon!!!

[Nintendo Direct happens]]]

Nintendo guy: We are happy to unveil Switch TV. We partnered with Vizio and will be releasing 4K TVs with Switch functionality.

[[[Small letters at the bottom of the screen]]]

Switch games run between 304p to 1080p depending on the software.
Click to expand...
200.gif
 


I still don't think TSMC's N6 process node can be discounted as a potential option for Nintendo and Nvidia since TSMC's N7 process node family is still very much profitable for TSMC, and TSMC's N7 process node family is still expected to be a long lasting process node, assuming Nintendo and Nvidia choose TSMC as the semiconductor foundry company of choice for the fabrication of Drake.
 
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