Dizzle
Like Like
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David Cyclops. That's Cyclops's real name.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Awww, that's so nice of you! I appreciate it.
Well regarding Nate, while I don't think his activity as an insider makes him enough money for it to be truly profitable, I think it should be plain for anyone following him on social media and forums to see that he's a man with a pretty big ego and who's very concerned about his reputation.
I mean, outside of his podcast, it feels to me like more than half of what he publishes on the internet is meant to defend his credibility as in insider, when it's not just plain and simple self-congratulation. It's to the point where he can't help but defend himself against even the most insignificant moron trolling him on Twitter or in a Youtube comment.
Also, I recall once watching an episode of his podcast where for no less than 40 minutes, he did nothing but ferociously trash other Youtubers for making clickbait and crap content about the next Direct date, calling them tabloid journalists and whatnot, in a very arrogant and condescending manner:
I don't really see what could have been the purpose of this, if it weren't just for the sake of implying that he himself was worth better than those other Youtubers (who by the way had caused him no prejudice at all) and that he somehow belonged to a whole other league.
Ironically though, he must have gotten so caught up in the process of glorifying himself that he somehow failed to realize that listening to him rant about clickbait and trash content for more than half an hour was hardly any more interesting than to actually watch said clickbait content. I think that's pretty telling about Nate's personality and as to what really drives him to do what he does.
And do I even need to bring up how in the weeks prior to tuesday's incident, he repeatedly posted about him having some 'heavy' information on the subject of new hardware, while still refusing to disclose even the slightest bit of that information? What was even the meaning of this? It certainly didn't bring anything useful to the debate. I couldn't help but feel he was just teasing and toying with all of us just for the sake of drawing the spotlight to himself, and thought it was pretty mean of him.
I could go on about Nate for long, but even just considering the above, believing that he is sharing information purely out of the goodness of his heart, just for the sake of the community and with no sort of ulterior motive whatsoever, is naive to say the least.
That's not to say he deserves being insulted or being called a scammer or whatever. After all, we're all after something in life, and I think it's only human for one to be seeking for attention, recognition, acknowledgement and popularity, perhaps even fame and glory, whatever you may call it. There's nothing condemnable about that per se.
But that's precisely where I want to get at: some people in this thread would do well to keep in mind that Nate is only ever human, just as everyone else here, and therefore stop thinking of him as some kind of untouchable god, if only for their own sake.
Can we just take a moment to realize that this thread has been turned into an absolute wreck over the past few days, solely because so many people here are willing to take at face value a piece of information that has been delivered, in a very cryptic an confusing manner I might add, by a man who is quite obviously driven by a will of recognition?
Meanwhile, Nate has yet to clarify the thought process that led him to believe in the existence of a device scheduled for 2023 that would have supposedly been shelved.
I think he could have easily appeased many people in this thread and spared a considerable amount of drama, had he been willing to lay out exactly what he's heard and tell us precisely what he thinks it implies, but no, he'd rather let the buzz build up and save the details for his show, because obviously, he couldn't care less about recognition and fame...
Don't get me wrong though, I've got no hatred whatsoever for Nate, and I'm not saying it's not worth listening to what he has to say. As flawed as he may be, I still think it's likely he does have some contacts within the industry, and regardless, the discussions in his podcast are quite often interesting. Therefore I will be listening to his next episode, albeit with a critical ear, as I always do.
I won't be holding my breath though. Whoever Nate might have been talking to, one thing I feel pretty confident about is that he has never been in direct contact with any developers who actually got their hands on a 4K Switch devkit.
The reason why I'm saying this is because whichever developers were in posession of devkits for a new Switch model back in 2021 would definitely know if the device they've been developing games for for more than a year had been canceled or even just significantly delayed, and they'd have known that for a little while. If Nate had got his information about upcoming 4K Switch hardware from those people in the first place, then he would have had no trouble whatsoever confirming the cancellation of the device and wouldn't have been so coy about it for the past few weeks.
It's more likely to be some kind of telephone game situation where he has spoken to different people who happen to know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows a guy, who knows a guy who allegedly has been working with a devkit for a new Switch... If that's the case, then it's fair to say Nate is no less speculating than any of us do, and that the reliability of his information is subject to a great deal of caution.
I'll add that considering how successful the Switch still is, with the implication that Nintendo won't be discontinuing the system before a while after it's successor comes out, I'd expect them to be much, much more secretive about that successor than they were about the NX, which was to succeed to the failed Wii U whose production was discontinued even before the Switch actually came out. Therefore, if a new Switch model were planned for 2023, I wouldn't necessarily expect any significant leaks to have happened by now.
As for the leaked TOTK Switch OLED model, regardless of whether it's fake or real, I'm not sure it has much bearing on the release date of a Drake based Switch model, as I'd expect the OLED model to get a special edition even if new Switch hardware released alongside the game.
Personnally, I believe that based on what we actually know, as opposed to what we're being told by so-called insiders and/or journalists, a release in April or May 2023 is still the most likely scenario as of today. If that doesn't come true though, it's not the end of the world. Whatever be the case, I think it will be pretty fun to follow the developments on this topic over the next few weeks.
Anyway, as it's already 2023 over where I live, I wish you all a happy new year! Have lots of fun playing your games.
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Wasn't it noted that Drake has FDE? Is that integrated into the chip, or part of an external block? Would something like that even make sense outside of gaming, outside of a closed platform, etc?
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I mean there's no doubt that Drake/T239 was made for Nintendo, the question is just whether (or more realistically when IMO) they use it.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Yeah, I can't see Drake equipped Switch not being announced soon.
FDE?
OP
OP
File Decompression Engine
Cuzizkool
Shriekbat
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Now that the shock of the news has subsided, can we play devil’s advocate here, and hypothesize what a Switch 2 in 2025/26 would look like if Drake really was cancelled? Yes, we all clutched our respective pearls but moving on, is there any tech info for Nvidia Thor that we could drool over? Could Thor provide raw PS4 Pro (PS5? 
) performance as a base with all the DLSS goodies added on top?
) performance as a base with all the DLSS goodies added on top?ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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What it would look like if Drake is cancelled?Now that the shock of the news has subsided, can we play devil’s advocate here, and hypothesize what a Switch 2 in 2025/26 would look like if Drake really was cancelled? Yes, we all clutched our respective pearls but moving on, is there any tech info for Nvidia Thor that we could drool over? Could Thor provide raw PS4 Pro (PS5?
Like this:
no. for thor based system to hit in 2025, then they would be starting on the SoC just now. and thor is for 4nm I thinkNow that the shock of the news has subsided, can we play devil’s advocate here, and hypothesize what a Switch 2 in 2025/26 would look like if Drake really was cancelled? Yes, we all clutched our respective pearls but moving on, is there any tech info for Nvidia Thor that we could drool over? Could Thor provide raw PS4 Pro (PS5?
Cuzizkool
Shriekbat
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That was the doomsday scenario I was proposing. If Drake was cancelled this year, and Nintendo was starting from scratch, wouldn’t they build something customized on the Thor architecture?
LiC
Member
A Linkedin profile from a Tegra engineer specifically called the FDE a "file decompression engine for games" and talked about SOC testing, so yeah. I'm not positive whether hardware like that would also make sense on a desktop GPU, but at present it doesn't exist in Ada or Hopper and hasn't been announced in any form, lending credence to the idea that it was made for Nintendo's purposes in their custom SOC.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Was Nintendo's joint partnership with Silicon Graphics for the N64 comparable to Nintendo's relationship with Nvidia in 2017 and beyond? I mean SGI were pretty well known at the time right? Pretty sure companies like Square and Capcom and even Nintendo (via Rare) were using their workstations.
Ignoring how unrealistic this is, I guess. But Thor has a different cpu that's not meant for games. But that's changeable early in the process
Dekuman
Kremling
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The only way Drake is cancelled is if Nintendo is switching vendors. So that's the real doomsday. Perhaps AMD impressed them enough with the Steamdeck SoC, but frankly I just don't see it given Drake seems to run circles around that chip and I don't think AMD will have anything comparable anytime soon, not to mention it's an x86 package in the deck.
I think what was cancelled was a 2020 OLED version with Mariko overclocked and we're just hearing it about it now because DF mentioned it. As we're quickly approach year 6 of Switch We're decidedly not 'mid-gen' by any stretch anyways. Drake was the true sucessor they move
The issue for us is we've already given up on the mid-gen refresh when OLED launched perhaps we're ahead of the curve. What would be really nice is if we can get confirmation drake is alive.
I think what was cancelled was a 2020 OLED version with Mariko overclocked and we're just hearing it about it now because DF mentioned it. As we're quickly approach year 6 of Switch We're decidedly not 'mid-gen' by any stretch anyways. Drake was the true sucessor they move
The issue for us is we've already given up on the mid-gen refresh when OLED launched perhaps we're ahead of the curve. What would be really nice is if we can get confirmation drake is alive.
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With the exception that Nintendo likely isn't paying a license fee per console and game sold to Nvidia, I imagine it's similar but probably less deeply integrated (learning hard lessons from the N64 cycle, methinks). Like, Nvidia is highly involved, but the likelihood is that Nvidia (especially now) has a lot to gain from the partnership, like making RTX features on a console device means more developers exposed to and really loving the features, with the goal to make Nvidia GPUs the "pace car" for game development hardware.
Given the information we know about Drake, and assuming the numbers LiC posted some time back are meant for the Switch 2, how comparable is it to the GDP Win 4 using the Ryzen 7 6800U? Looking at that indiegogo page, some things don't add up. They claim various frame rates on games based on certain settings, yet there are videos that show off the chip in a laptop setting that suggest numbers not as high as claimed for some at least (one video provided below). There's other information about the portable that don't seem to line up for me, but I'll let you all look at it yourself.
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Kise Ryota
Bob-omb
How is the comparison? Also there's the above cited 6800U with 50% more CU's (and 8 CPU cores vs 4 on the SD - and I feel they could have used 'only' 6 to give more juice to the GPU). For me It seems hard to compare without knowing the power consumption, but I'm the opposite of an expert in hardware lol
Kise Ryota
Bob-omb
Dekuman
Kremling
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just more features. obviously we don't know clocks, so actual perf is hard to pin down. The Deck is also much bigger, so it will be trading some performance to something close to the Switch form factor even if Nintendo decides to make their next hybrid assuming it is one thicker or bigger.
Kise Ryota
Bob-omb
Yeah, I was watching some videos with handhelds using the 6800U, and they are thick. Also the total power consumption seems much higher than what Nintendo would use in handheld mode.
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The Switch is in a better place now than any Nintendo platform in history regardless if ZOLED releases in May 2023 or Drake/T239 releases in 11 months from now. I have been waiting for nearly two decades for a moment like this.
We have come so far and I am glad to be here to witness what will be the future of Nintendo hardware. Happy New Year's everyone!
We have come so far and I am glad to be here to witness what will be the future of Nintendo hardware. Happy New Year's everyone!
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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- He
Hopefully pokemon gets better!
Gyemknight
Rattata
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Happy New Year everyone!!
I have finally caught up to the thread after 3 and a half weeks but I made it. Y'all post alot.
But so far what I have seen is that Drake is happining next year. COPIUM. From where I am standing it seems like the ZOLED was real and there is a chance we won't get Drake H1 this year but we might still get it.
If it does happen I really don't see any 1st party games coming with it and from inconclusive research I have found that we could get a remake or 3rd party game coming with it. It seemed like the most obvious decision was to dig harder but it became hard to do that after the ZOLED leak happened so that was the inconclusive part.
Berfore the leak happened I found that Drake might have been real but plans were tight and so they could have started to rebuild it from scratch making me believe the most likely release would be Fall 2023 to Early 2024. But this is all speculation based on inconclusive evidence so if this is wrong please no hate.
But what I can say is that in place of Drake there was the leaked ZOLED so this leads me to believe TOTK is not launching with Drake and Drake is not launching before TOTK. Sorry for the long post and if I am wrong sorry for getting peoples hopes up. Again please no hate or anything like that if I am wrong see y'all tomorrow.
I have finally caught up to the thread after 3 and a half weeks but I made it. Y'all post alot.
But so far what I have seen is that Drake is happining next year. COPIUM. From where I am standing it seems like the ZOLED was real and there is a chance we won't get Drake H1 this year but we might still get it.
If it does happen I really don't see any 1st party games coming with it and from inconclusive research I have found that we could get a remake or 3rd party game coming with it. It seemed like the most obvious decision was to dig harder but it became hard to do that after the ZOLED leak happened so that was the inconclusive part.
Berfore the leak happened I found that Drake might have been real but plans were tight and so they could have started to rebuild it from scratch making me believe the most likely release would be Fall 2023 to Early 2024. But this is all speculation based on inconclusive evidence so if this is wrong please no hate.
But what I can say is that in place of Drake there was the leaked ZOLED so this leads me to believe TOTK is not launching with Drake and Drake is not launching before TOTK. Sorry for the long post and if I am wrong sorry for getting peoples hopes up. Again please no hate or anything like that if I am wrong see y'all tomorrow.
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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On Spawnwave it was said that the Chip shortage should be no more, and that there is a surplus, has anyone else heard this claim??, because if so then Nintendo should have no qualms about producing a brand new system
Companies are canceling orders with tsmc due to economic downturn and glut, but low end parts might still be in very high demand. Not that it would affect Nintendo if they already signed production contracts
Their relationship with Nvidia is more akin to what Sony and MS has with AMD imo.
Maybe in some ways even deeper than that, at least on the software side.
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slsk
Cappy
The problem with the chip shortage is that a single Switch system actually needs many chips. It's not just the main SOC that we spend so much time talking about but also smaller off-the-shelf chips that handle functions like Wi-Fi, power delivery, screen control, etc. If even one of these chips is hard to get then it becomes the bottleneck for producing the whole system.
Thugstas
Bob-omb
You can…. Always choosing glass half fullI can finally say that I feel pretty confident that we will be getting new Nintendo hardware next year. I feel "hopeful".
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Oh. No worries. In that case, don't think we'll get PS5 specs until switch 3, maybe. Will be interesting to see. I feel like it's more limited for mobilr
Looking at that indiegogo page..
1. Direct comparisons with SD with GPU and CPU speed benchmarks. Shots fired much?
2. GPU is ~ 50% faster than SD's according to bench marks, even though they are bragging that the GPU can reach 3.6-4 3 tflops
3. 2x the CPU cores as SD with a base frequency of 2.7 GHz and s high as 4.7 GHz turbo boost apparently. 80% faster single core and 140% faster multi threaded apparently. I'm just gonna go ahead and say it's gonna gonna compete with current gen console CPU speeds.
4. 1080p screen that can be down sampled to 720p 16 by 9. Nice
5. $800-1200 price. 512GB space and 16GB RAM to 2TB space and 32GB RAM
6.Ok, this REALLY piqued my interest..I wasn't expecting this all. Theoretical 32 bit 4 channel lpddr5 RAM reaching 204.8 GB/s?! WTF?!
Anyway, something feels off about their spec sheet. it's 6nm at 28 watt TDP, but I dunno if it's for whole soc or just CPU. The bandwidth is the most shocking to me, if it ends up being legit. 204.8 GB/s would be the most for a handheld in that form factor, but how does four 32 bit channels get to 204.8 GB/s bandwidth? Never seen numbers like that for lppdr..Assumed an accumulative of 256 bit bus bandwidth would reach it. Its weird how they say "theoretical."
But if Drake 2 could reach that bandwidth, that would really make it future proof. Doubt it will, but i guess that makes handheld devices possible to have that much?
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CocaFormula
Cappy
Yeah I feel like there were so many crossed wires around the switch "revisions" or Pro rumors that now it's really hard to reconcile all the different tidbits, especially with the hard evidence of T239 being worked on for years now.
Perhaps there were more changed plans than we initially thought, something along these lines:
- 2017-2019: Nintendo was working on Mariko and also experimenting on an overclocked version (first rumors of a "Pro"). It is ultimately shelved in favor of the Redbox Switch
- 2019-2021: Nintendo start working on an Orin-based SOC for a "4K" mid-gen refresh. Pandemic and shortages made it unfeasible in the expected timeframe, and the OLED is instead released (repurposing the new screen and other parts). This is what everybody was reporting on as the DLSS revision with dev-kits being sent out back in 2020
- 2021-2023: Drake is repurposed as a full-fledged successor (maybe with a node shrink?) and is now reaching final stage of development
In this scenario, the main dissonance is with Nate mentioning only now that the revision was shelved. But you have to concede that he admittedly had no new information since October 2021 (if I am not mistaken), plans might have changed back then (if not before) and he is only finding out now. It seems to me he tried to piggyback on the Nvidia leak to reinforce his old information about a revision targeting 2022 (he only later changed this tidbit suggesting H12023) but there is the possibility that Drake was already repurposed into a Switch 2 by that time and he was simply not aware.
The only real question is when Nintendo is planning to release the successor. Personally I believe 2023 is still a possibility and 2024 should be the latest.
thegodsend
Tektite
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Something I don't fully get yet - based on what we know, is it still possible they will produce Drake on a smaller node then 8nm if they already did some initial test production as we know from the Linux "leak"? If it's late 34 or early 24, is 8nm still the most probable node or would it them rather be a smaller node due to availability?
Imo and far from just my opinion: 8nm has been extremely odd ever since we learned the size of the chip.
Gotdatmoneyy
Shriekbat
I'd agree. When we heard 8nm and around XB1 performance we were speculating something like 4-8 SM units and like 4-8 A78s. That would have better fit that power envelope. But now with the confirmation of 12 SM and 8 A78s it is just odd that you would make a chip that power hungry that would need to be clocked quite low to have usable battery life. The power consumption on the GPU at Switch clocks is really high but it is hard to believe they would make something that big and then clock even lower than the original Switch.
It is possible but why?
Developers didn't know about the oled model. The conflation between the two were because Michizuki thought his dev kit info was the same as his manufacturering info
eye0h
"it is known"
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I think this is a fair assessment on Nate. I do think he knows either devs or industry marketers though
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Thanks to data mining we know this is not the case. The OLED model was planned and enacted exactly as planned before the pandemic happened.
Theoretically, it could have always been the "plan B" though.
CocaFormula
Cappy
I stand corrected then. On the other hand, it always seemed odd to me that Nintendo was planning a revision for late 2022 (initial reports were pointing to this date) even after releasing the OLED in late 2021, so I can get behind the idea that at some point it was shelved. I found harder to believe that this happened recently and Drake as we know it from the leak was still targeted to this supposed "mid-gen refresh. I would still imagine something similar to my timeline when the decision to scrap it was taken around 2021. Although there is no proof of this intermediate step in the leak itself I guess.
Also, this?
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Aula you mean? I guess that's possible, but I don't think it's fair to say it happened because of the pandemic. If it was plan B then it was planned out long before the pandemic
very well said, this is pretty much how i feel but i could never put it as eloquently as you did.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Ok, a real answer: the timing you suggested would be too soon, and you’d have to look for 2027/2028. So, 2025/2026 would be off the table there.
Secondly, I’m not sure what form you’re referring to with PS4 Pro as base (and maybe PS5?). The base of the switch is the handheld form, and games are limited to that spec not the docked spec.
Currently, with Drake, they could have targeted PS4 Pro without needing DLSS for everything in docked mode if clocked high enough. In theory.
But that also depends on several factors that are beyond the hardware, but have to do with the software. Such as, how well they optimize it.
Remember, the PS4 Pro was playing PS4 games with a higher target resolution and a few higher settings, the games were still largely PS4 games.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I have one problem with the whole idea of a dye shrunk drake, some people have already touched on it, and that is the idea that Nintendo / Nvidia were somehow blindsided by Drake on 8nm.
Nvidia's engineers would have known roughly what Samsung 8nm was capable of, so I don't see how they were ever planning a 2021 DLSS Model with the OLED shell. There has to be some crossed wires here. Especially given the added complexity of moving from Maxwell to Ampere, this seems too much for a mid gen refresh type of device, seems to be a development nightmare if Nintendo were planning a mid gen ampere upgrade, so two new performance profiles for handheld and docked and then 2-3 years later introducing another performance level with another two profiles.
Another thing that doesn't make sense is the nvidia leak has absolutely no reference to any other chip. From what I know of development, working in a team following CI/CD principles, I believe the hack was a download of the current nvidia git repository. If this is the case, and Nvidia developers are professionals, there would still be references to any other chips used in the code, the code would be commented out with supporting commentary around the deprecated code. If the code is isolated, for instance a T236 "Dane" config file existed at one time it would also exist in the current repo and marked "Deprecated" or something similar. You would do this whilst the software was in active development as you may need to go back to old code and grab bits and bobs to re-use.
For these reasons I don't believe a DLSS mid gen refresh ever existed beyond discussions between Nintendo and Nvidia or it would be in the nvidia leaks. I think a Mariko based Pro may have been considered, and we have evidence of that from the increased clock profiles that exist, but ultimately cancelled early on.
Could Nintendo be even more tight lipped than before and as such sources are handing out information that's not a complete picture and adding to the confusion? I think this is plausible given Brainchilds comments on his experience with Nintendo as a developer.
As for the dev kit info, it's possible that until recently devs have been working with virtualised dev environments and feedback on target specs has been taken into account for things like RAM etc, leading to changing specifications over time, but I think Drake has always been targeted for whatever node its being produced on and its clocks were likely already largely known too. With the size of the chip, I don't think Drake was ever a Samsung 8nm chip. Recent rumours of dev kits being replaced or updated is likely final silicon dev kits as we know drake is in production at some capacity and has been for a while now.
Now factoring in the ZOLED leak as well, what that tells us is that final retail products of that console exist, is Nintendo going to keep them in storage until Zelda releases? I find this highly unlikely so I can only assume that the ZOLED is releasing to retail well before May 12th. Following Nintendos previous patterns when special edition handheld consoles are concerned along with successors I don't feel the ZOLEDs existence has any bearing on Drake at this point. Not to say I have any strong feeling about when Drake will release, but I don't think H1 May can be ruled out because of the existence of fully retail ready ZOLED models.
Hypothetical situation for the sake of Argument.
ZOLED Leaks in fully retail boxed versions. Late December. Separate Funcle also claims Nintendo is massively ramping up production facilities in January.
End of January - Huge Zelda Blowout Direct, ZOLED is revealed, releasing late Feb to early March. Allows for 6-8 weeks for sea based shipping methods.
At this point its possible we start to see some Drake factory leaks, but not guaranteed either way, will be an exciting time in this thread if things do start to leak.
If drake is releasing with TotK then we will see a drake presentation no later than early to mid February. It will be separate from their usual big Q1 direct, I'd bet on one week before it.
Mid to Late February, Nintendos usual huge blowout direct for the start of the year showcasing games launching in the first half of this year. Will have a few drake focused games, some third party exclusives.
Nintendo will leverage the Mario movie to advertise its new platform in the run up to the devices launch a month later.
I think this is still a possibility if I assume there is a lot of confusion surrounding this devices release, much like the confusion that occurred around the OLED release.
Alternative time line for 2023 based on funcle, nvidia leak and Linux kernel commits could be that they stick to a similar marketing cycle but launch drake in Summer or Later and a game like metroid prime remaster to show off the increase in visual fidelity and patch Zelda for drake post release. If the funcles comments around the factory gearing up for a huge ramp up in production is taken as its starting in January, but may take a month or two to hit mass volumes, this could give them six months of manufacturing at volume to have lots of units available in the holidays.
Don't think either of these can be ruled out as possibilities.
One thing I have also been thinking about is the possibility of reusing OLED shell and Dock. I don't think there is any chance of this happening any more. The reason being is how Nintendo markets its products and some mistakes its made in the past. Nintendo does a lot of product placement in its own games and much of its console marketing focuses on the physical console itself, showing it going in and out of the dock and in people's hands etc. This fact, combined with how distinct previous consoles have been between generations, excluding the WiiU confusion, drives me to believe the dock in particular is going to be distinctive compared to the original switch, in some way. I also believe the handheld will have either some distinctive feature, such as a camera, or a shell that differs enough that a lay person can see its not a first generation switch or an OLED model.
Then why the OLED Dock differences? I think OLED Docks will be compatible but not fully featured, and because they are distinct from original switch docks it's easy to differentiate which docks work and which ones do not.
Nvidia's engineers would have known roughly what Samsung 8nm was capable of, so I don't see how they were ever planning a 2021 DLSS Model with the OLED shell. There has to be some crossed wires here. Especially given the added complexity of moving from Maxwell to Ampere, this seems too much for a mid gen refresh type of device, seems to be a development nightmare if Nintendo were planning a mid gen ampere upgrade, so two new performance profiles for handheld and docked and then 2-3 years later introducing another performance level with another two profiles.
Another thing that doesn't make sense is the nvidia leak has absolutely no reference to any other chip. From what I know of development, working in a team following CI/CD principles, I believe the hack was a download of the current nvidia git repository. If this is the case, and Nvidia developers are professionals, there would still be references to any other chips used in the code, the code would be commented out with supporting commentary around the deprecated code. If the code is isolated, for instance a T236 "Dane" config file existed at one time it would also exist in the current repo and marked "Deprecated" or something similar. You would do this whilst the software was in active development as you may need to go back to old code and grab bits and bobs to re-use.
For these reasons I don't believe a DLSS mid gen refresh ever existed beyond discussions between Nintendo and Nvidia or it would be in the nvidia leaks. I think a Mariko based Pro may have been considered, and we have evidence of that from the increased clock profiles that exist, but ultimately cancelled early on.
Could Nintendo be even more tight lipped than before and as such sources are handing out information that's not a complete picture and adding to the confusion? I think this is plausible given Brainchilds comments on his experience with Nintendo as a developer.
As for the dev kit info, it's possible that until recently devs have been working with virtualised dev environments and feedback on target specs has been taken into account for things like RAM etc, leading to changing specifications over time, but I think Drake has always been targeted for whatever node its being produced on and its clocks were likely already largely known too. With the size of the chip, I don't think Drake was ever a Samsung 8nm chip. Recent rumours of dev kits being replaced or updated is likely final silicon dev kits as we know drake is in production at some capacity and has been for a while now.
Now factoring in the ZOLED leak as well, what that tells us is that final retail products of that console exist, is Nintendo going to keep them in storage until Zelda releases? I find this highly unlikely so I can only assume that the ZOLED is releasing to retail well before May 12th. Following Nintendos previous patterns when special edition handheld consoles are concerned along with successors I don't feel the ZOLEDs existence has any bearing on Drake at this point. Not to say I have any strong feeling about when Drake will release, but I don't think H1 May can be ruled out because of the existence of fully retail ready ZOLED models.
Hypothetical situation for the sake of Argument.
ZOLED Leaks in fully retail boxed versions. Late December. Separate Funcle also claims Nintendo is massively ramping up production facilities in January.
End of January - Huge Zelda Blowout Direct, ZOLED is revealed, releasing late Feb to early March. Allows for 6-8 weeks for sea based shipping methods.
At this point its possible we start to see some Drake factory leaks, but not guaranteed either way, will be an exciting time in this thread if things do start to leak.
If drake is releasing with TotK then we will see a drake presentation no later than early to mid February. It will be separate from their usual big Q1 direct, I'd bet on one week before it.
Mid to Late February, Nintendos usual huge blowout direct for the start of the year showcasing games launching in the first half of this year. Will have a few drake focused games, some third party exclusives.
Nintendo will leverage the Mario movie to advertise its new platform in the run up to the devices launch a month later.
I think this is still a possibility if I assume there is a lot of confusion surrounding this devices release, much like the confusion that occurred around the OLED release.
Alternative time line for 2023 based on funcle, nvidia leak and Linux kernel commits could be that they stick to a similar marketing cycle but launch drake in Summer or Later and a game like metroid prime remaster to show off the increase in visual fidelity and patch Zelda for drake post release. If the funcles comments around the factory gearing up for a huge ramp up in production is taken as its starting in January, but may take a month or two to hit mass volumes, this could give them six months of manufacturing at volume to have lots of units available in the holidays.
Don't think either of these can be ruled out as possibilities.
One thing I have also been thinking about is the possibility of reusing OLED shell and Dock. I don't think there is any chance of this happening any more. The reason being is how Nintendo markets its products and some mistakes its made in the past. Nintendo does a lot of product placement in its own games and much of its console marketing focuses on the physical console itself, showing it going in and out of the dock and in people's hands etc. This fact, combined with how distinct previous consoles have been between generations, excluding the WiiU confusion, drives me to believe the dock in particular is going to be distinctive compared to the original switch, in some way. I also believe the handheld will have either some distinctive feature, such as a camera, or a shell that differs enough that a lay person can see its not a first generation switch or an OLED model.
Then why the OLED Dock differences? I think OLED Docks will be compatible but not fully featured, and because they are distinct from original switch docks it's easy to differentiate which docks work and which ones do not.
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Aula was maybe the fallback option in case everything else fails. It is still just a Mariko Switch.
They may have experimented with a lot of different configurations in different branches that were never committed into the main firmware source code.
Or the guts of the "Pro" were sufficiently distinct from Mariko that it warranted a whole new build of the firmware, the same way a Drake firmware will probably leave no traces to be datamined from current Switches.
Eclissi
Moblin
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