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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Digital Foundries' comments, NateDrake's confusing statements, the prediction of no major releases after TotK, and this back-to-back would probably kill this thread
Save for the boost from some big news, most of the thread activity is from people who like to discuss tech or find it fun to uncover what happens behind the scenes. Nintendo could give an official statement saying it would release in 2025 and this thread probably would keep going until we get the rest of the specs at least, even if we rather get it sooner than later.
 
You feeling confident that 3rd party support on Switch 2 is going to be even better than what we have on the current Switch?
I mean, if the new console is conceptually more of the same, it shouldn't require any additional buy-in. I can't see devs and publishers who straggled in getting on board with the original Switch due to the failure of the Wii U (or whatever) dragging their feet as hard on a console that is basically 'the Switch, but much more powerful.'
 
It's not like 8nm would be a disaster from what I understood, reading conversations about those some time ago.
It may not allow for the best battery life, but they can still improve it later with silent revision like they did in 2019 with V2/Mariko right?
Performance wise probably. But not size wise, it’s still going to be a really big chip for a device like this which is already space constrained to hell.

unless they remove the fan
 
It's not like 8nm would be a disaster from what I understood, reading conversations about those some time ago.
It may not allow for the best battery life, but they can still improve it later with silent revision like they did in 2019 with V2/Mariko right?
It would just be really illogical node at that size. Because the clocks would be so low, fewer cores at higher speeds would likely perform similiarly or better in handheld mode.
 
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The fact that 75% of third party games will use Unreal Engine 5 this generation will mean Drake will get far, far more AAA ports by default because of UE5’s ridiculous scalability.

Switch also proved that games like DOOM, The Witcher and even lazy FIFA ports can sell into the millions at much higher prices than on other platforms no less.
 
The fact that 75% of third party games will use Unreal Engine 5 this generation will mean Drake will get far, far more AAA ports by default because of UE5’s ridiculous scalability.

Switch also proved that games like DOOM, The Witcher and even lazy FIFA ports can sell into the millions at much higher prices than on other platforms no less.


Hey!

Any new info from the front?
 
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The fact that 75% of third party games will use Unreal Engine 5 this generation will mean Drake will get far, far more AAA ports by default because of UE5’s ridiculous scalability.

Switch also proved that games like DOOM, The Witcher and even lazy FIFA ports can sell into the millions at much higher prices than on other platforms no less.
I wish it was that easy….
 
it’s still probably 8nm. Best assume that and prepare thyself.

My only concern with 8nm is down to size of the chip rather than its effect on performance. I'm assuming that Nintendo will keep the form factor very similar to Switch and I'm not sure how much board space is really available for the SOC? Products like the Aya Neo Pro are similar in size and I believe the biggest processor they use is 210mm2 and most sit at 180mm2. I'm not convinced that the 12SM's and 8 CPU cores are going to fit in that space. The full fat Orin is 450mm2 and we are only talking about removing 25% of the GPU cores and 4 CPU cores along with the automotive hardware that takes up maybe 10% of the die space.
 
My only concern with 8nm is down to size of the chip rather than its effect on performance. I'm assuming that Nintendo will keep the form factor very similar to Switch and I'm not sure how much board space is really available for the SOC? Products like the Aya Neo Pro are similar in size and I believe the biggest processor they use is 210mm2 and most sit at 180mm2. I'm not convinced that the 12SM's and 8 CPU cores are going to fit in that space. The full fat Orin is 450mm2 and we are only talking about removing 25% of the GPU cores and 4 CPU cores along with the automotive hardware that takes up maybe 10% of the fie space.
maybe the automotive stuff takes up more than 10% of the space
 
Like I said, they want Nintendo to go the way of Sony.
Discussed this before, but you see it, too. Really wish they would just make their peace with the fact that Nintendo isn't pandering to them and them only, and move on. I hope they never build "a PS, but it plays Nintendo games with the same tired-ass controller variant from 1997" . I also hope we continue to see names and ideas which convey imagination, but that's just the creative in me. The day that Nintendo takes more cues from the Sony playbook is the day that the entire gaming industry becomes infinitely poorer for it.

For what it's worth, I think it WILL be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen)" , as it straddles the tightrope between "relative safety" and being "different enough" (Ordinal Numbering Convention compared to the Cardinal one of the PS brand). Well, I say "relative safety" , but I don't think marketing is that simplistic, nor do I believe one can "copy and paste success" with a more-of-the-same (but better, whatever the hell THAT means) approach.
 
Discussed this before, but you see it, too. Really wish they would just make their peace with the fact that Nintendo isn't pandering to them and them only, and move on. I hope they never build "a PS, but it plays Nintendo games with the same tired-ass controller variant from 1997" . I also hope we continue to see names and ideas which convey imagination, but that's just the creative in me. The day that Nintendo takes more cues from the Sony playbook is the day that the entire gaming industry becomes infinitely poorer for it.

For what it's worth, I think it WILL be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen)" , as it straddles the tightrope between "relative safety" and being "different enough" (Ordinal Numbering Convention compared to the Cardinal one of the PS brand). Well, I say "relative safety" , but I don't think marketing is that simplistic, nor do I believe one can "copy and paste success" with a more-of-the-same (but better, whatever the hell THAT means) approach.
You and SiG need to seriously chill with the Sony boogeyman console war nonsense, they legit are living rent free in your minds.

Calling a sequel to Switch the “Nintendo Switch 2” isn’t “going the way of Sony” or “making a PS with Nintendo games”.

It’s just a number for denoting a sequel. That’s all. No one is arguing for it because they want Nintendo to copy Sony. Stop with this.


Y’all just projecting console warrior agendas that aren’t there.
 
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My only concern with 8nm is down to size of the chip rather than its effect on performance. I'm assuming that Nintendo will keep the form factor very similar to Switch and I'm not sure how much board space is really available for the SOC? Products like the Aya Neo Pro are similar in size and I believe the biggest processor they use is 210mm2 and most sit at 180mm2. I'm not convinced that the 12SM's and 8 CPU cores are going to fit in that space. The full fat Orin is 450mm2 and we are only talking about removing 25% of the GPU cores and 4 CPU cores along with the automotive hardware that takes up maybe 10% of the die space.
The Aya Neo are rather thick though.
 
first benchmarks for Basemark's mobile RT bench is out for Samsung's Exynos 2100. and, surprisingly, the 8 Gen 2

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the benchmark renders reflections at 60% of the output resolution.

on Basemark's website, Exynos has better RT than Adreno.
 
maybe the automotive stuff takes up more than 10% of the space
It doesnt appear to be. If you look at the die photo for Orin and compare it to the PS4 APU, the PS4 APU has about 50% of the space taken up by the GPU and CPU cores and Orin has 40% of the space taken up by the cores.
The Aya Neo are rather thick though.
It is, pretty much all the portable PC's are quite a bit thicker than the Switch. Im not sure that is due to the processor though. I wouldnt imagine their APU's are much thicker than the Tegra X1. I would imagine a primary reason for something like the Aya Neo being so thick is due to heat since they are running 25-30 watts even in portable mode. I'm guessing Switch 2 will pull similar wattage to the Switch.
 
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I can finally say that I feel pretty confident that we will be getting new Nintendo hardware next year. I feel "hopeful". :)

I want this to be true. What makes you say that?

Not specifically told TotK but Q2 is Zelda launch so it lines up with Q2.

I do wonder what game people think is huge enough to launch a next generation Switch if it’s not TotK?

TotK is May, the new 3d Mario is almost certainly October this year. I guess Mario Kart 9 in March 2024 then? because by that time we will have just had a new Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem and Pikmin the year prior. Luigi’s Mansion is an October franchise and probably not due until Oct ‘26 due to Covid hampering it’s first two years of production. Bayonetta 4 (if 3’s sales even justified it) is 4 years off. We’ve just had a Xenoblade game. We’ve just had a new Splatoon. Metroid is not a big enough franchise to even exist for years to Nintendo nevermind to launch a next generation console with Prime 4.

A new Warriors spin off game is not big enough neither is a new Yoshi / Kirby / DK platformer or any Mario Sports spin off title.

Pokemon has never traditionally been used to sell Nintendo hardware in terms of a home / hybrid device either. God knows what is happening with Smash whether they will even make another anytime soon with their director seemingly retiring and if they do will they think more DLC passes will be the way to go (like the MK8D DLC) because really what can they do with Smash at this point that hasn’t already been done in past titles or that’s in Ultimate.

So the only option left seems to be Mario Kart 9/10 (do we count the mobile game as a main line entry?). Yes the team has been quiet but they have also done / helped with Tour, the physical toy car game and been making all the DLC tracks. Is next Spring enough time to make a new impressive entry in series and do Nintendo even think Mario Kart is strong enough to launch a next generation system on its own without a 2017 like spate of big titles to come thundering in one after the other after the other. Mario Kart seems to be a more of a complimentary purchase for Nintendo consoles rather than the main reason to buy the console imo.

Their other option is this May. When they have perhaps their biggest, most ambitious, most expensive, most anticipated game ever created launching. It’s also a franchise that successfully launched Wii, new 3DS, Switch and Switch Lite. They also have a new Pikmin, 3D Mario and perhaps Prime 4 to follow it up and keep momentum into ‘24 when a possible new Mario Kart would arrive to keep interest in the new console up.

You really don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes or have contacts in the industry to work this out. All that has changed is it’s almost certainly going to be positioned as their “next generation” system instead of a Switch “Pro/4k” 😝

If I hear that plans have changed once my mates go back to work I’ll let y’all know but it doesn’t seem like anything has changed the kits simply got stronger and stronger with more memory throughout ‘22.
I want this to be true, but I can’t help but wonder if you know if the Switch 2 was going to launch with TOTK when it was originally scheduled for a late 2022 release.

If it wasn’t going to launch with TOTK then, why not?

I think it’s possible for Nintendo to have a fine year without more powerful hardware in 2023. This means, to me, 15m+ units.

But I don’t think it’s possible to have an acceptable year (from a financial/investor perspective) in 2024 without new hardware since we are likely hitting a hardware saturation point. That means they should launch no later than holiday 2023.
 
Prepare for what? We've already seen target power consumption, and it's pretty decent. Node doesn't matter if power consumption and performance meet expectations anyway
Did we? I must have missed the information that pointed to this being specifically for the Drake SOC.
 
Did we? I must have missed the information that pointed to this being specifically for the Drake SOC.
What else could it be, really? Balance of probability.

There's a minimum speed for Drake before it becomes inefficient, and even that is double or more the power of the most powerful modes on the original Switch. TV mode will double that again.

Double to quadruple performance is, as worst case scenarios go, pretty decent.

However as I've said before, I suspect 4N might be used, given it's been sampled and produced on the same timeline as Ada Lovelace, and of course those apparently stellar test results that leaked.

Either way, I'm not worried about it. It'll be fine regardless of node.
 
What else could it be, really? Balance of probability.
It could literally be anything else. Hell, for all we know it is a configuration that isn’t even Drake at all. The one who provided all this stuff provided a lot of caveats to this data and why one should be careful with it.
 
Given even in 8 nm they reached the conclusion this power draw is somehow "fine", enough for the chip to reach engineering samples... I would be more worried about how tight the system will run, in terms of temperatures. It sure won't overheat, but keeping it in 8 nm will probably make it a little space heater with 3 hours of battery life or even less.
 
The Nvidia CES 2023 Panel is starting very soon. I wonder what the implications are if T239 doesn't show up there.
 
It could literally be anything else. Hell, for all we know it is a configuration that isn’t even Drake at all. The one who provided all this stuff provided a lot of caveats to this data and why one should be careful with it.
Could it, though?

Balance of probability: results are consistent with Drake's capabilities.
Power consumption tested is the same as existing Switch.

There is very little reason(more like none) to test anything other than a chip for Nintendo at Nintendo's power requirements.

Are they really testing the DLSS capabilities of next generation automotive Tegra at Nintendo Switch power consumption for a lark?
 
You feeling confident that 3rd party support on Switch 2 is going to be even better than what we have on the current Switch?
No doubt about it, Switch's 3rd party support were old games and massive downgrades of PS4/One titles. This is getting all of them even if it'll run sub-HD internal resolutions (reconstructed by DLSS) for it, no other downgrades are on the table except maybe I/O requirements past 1 GB/s.
 
Given even in 8 nm they reached the conclusion this power draw is somehow "fine", enough for the chip to reach engineering samples... I would be more worried about how tight the system will run, in terms of temperatures. It sure won't overheat, but keeping it in 8 nm will probably make it a little space heater with 3 hours of battery life or even less.
"baby I'm cold"
points drake's fan towards you
 
Discussed this before, but you see it, too. Really wish they would just make their peace with the fact that Nintendo isn't pandering to them and them only, and move on. I hope they never build "a PS, but it plays Nintendo games with the same tired-ass controller variant from 1997" . I also hope we continue to see names and ideas which convey imagination, but that's just the creative in me. The day that Nintendo takes more cues from the Sony playbook is the day that the entire gaming industry becomes infinitely poorer for it.

For what it's worth, I think it WILL be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen)" , as it straddles the tightrope between "relative safety" and being "different enough" (Ordinal Numbering Convention compared to the Cardinal one of the PS brand). Well, I say "relative safety" , but I don't think marketing is that simplistic, nor do I believe one can "copy and paste success" with a more-of-the-same (but better, whatever the hell THAT means) approach.
They're definitely taking cues from Sony, but not everything from Sony is even bad to begin with. The company was literally run like that already in the 90s as well as the GC era, and I didn't see anyone complaining. Nintendo will always use power jumps for the benefit of their games and if this is literally, only a massive power jump then the games are certainly getting more ambitious and technically spectacular than ever before. That's part of Sony's model and again, I don't see anyone complaining.
 
Could it, though?

Balance of probability: results are consistent with Drake's capabilities.
Power consumption tested is the same as existing Switch.

There is very little reason(more like none) to test anything other than a chip for Nintendo at Nintendo's power requirements.

Are they really testing the DLSS capabilities of next generation automotive Tegra at Nintendo Switch power consumption for a lark?
The same line of thinking is what led for WUST to be what it is.

A massive disappointment.
 
What else could it be, really? Balance of probability.
Orin Nano power draw? Tensor core power draw? A100 partition power draw in the build environment these tests run in? Some internal hardware that DLSS 2 was developed with?

I realize I'm in the minority here, but if there was any relationship between those numbers and drake's power draw I would be honestly surprised.
 
Orin Nano power draw? Tensor core power draw? A100 partition power draw in the build environment these tests run in? Some internal hardware that DLSS 2 was developed with?

I realize I'm in the minority here, but if there was any relationship between those numbers and drake's power draw I would be honestly surprised.
Nah I agree very much with you. I don't think you're in the minority, and I'm honestly surprised so many people took all that at face value when even the person who posted it stressed how little context there was.
 
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I actually have a feeling that the next-gen Switch might once again fail to meet our unrealistic expectations, even more so after 6 years of build up and speculations lol.

I am also very much afraid we are missing some vital piece of information on the T239 that would upend the table once again on what we expect.
 
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