StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Quailman]

If Nvidia doesn't announce anything to use T239 next week at CES, then Drake powered Switch is coming next year. This is because they are already producing the chip, it's not going to be produced right now for a device 13+ months from now.

I remember back in 2021 Jensen making a comment how mobile phones are not ready for RT based on this article https://www.tomshardware.com/news/b...-says-smartphones-arent-ready-for-ray-tracing

While Qualcolm and Meditek had made breakthroughs with mobile RT this year it's limited in terms of implementation and what games can run with their SoC.

I am sure Nvidia wants to announce their first mobile SoC to use full on ray tracing or there will be a joint direct/conference of Nintendo and Nvidia showcasing the new switch.

 

[ArchedThunder]

They wouldn't be able to launch a product they haven't even made and it takes years to make a new console's SoC. So IF Drake is not going to the Switch 2, we'd be seeing a 9-10 year gap between gens.

If some hardware was cancelled I can’t see it being Drake.

 

[aus89]

Not getting a great feeling around that Mochizuki response. He’s agreeing with it I guess

Nintendo were so upset about the Bloomberg leaks that they pulled a Netflix Zelda and cancelled the whole thing (/s)

 

[Shadowrun]

Can somebody quote where he said that?
Because... If so... Then it's Drake that was cancelled .
He said back then that he knew of a next gen Switch that would be capable of 4K through DLSS(which we can all agree is Drake/the specs of the Nvidia leak, right?).
So if that(the DLSS Switch Pro/2 of late 2022-early 2023) is what was canned... Then it would be indeed Drake and not some Mariko based or just "a little more powerful" stuff to come in 2020/2021 that was cancelled. And that would be a bummer.
Hope it's "cancelled" only in the sense of cancelled as a revision, so delayed to be a successor(even tho it would kinda be already eventually).

Sure, follow the quote trail from this post:
https://famiboards.com/threads/future-nintendo-hardware-technology-speculation-st.55/post-492029

But, he outright says the info about a revision being shelved relates to the one planned for 2023.

 

[Sol]

Finally watched the DF video. John reiterated two points throughout the video:

1) That the next-gen hardware isn't coming out in 2023. "I don't think this is coming out in 2023....I'll just say that much".
2) Nintendo is very nervous about a transition to new hardware.

I just can't imagine Drake coming out in 2024. All the tech inside would be 4 years old at that point. Nvidia would be a full two generations ahead with its consumer GPU tech by the time it comes out.

 

[antonz]

if Nintendo is nervous, they aren't helping themselves. Switch hit its peak and has entered decline period. Thats not to say its only going to sell 1 million units next year or anything but you don't wait until the system is dead before you launch its replacement.

If anything, Nintendo's problem is it forgets that its ok to be iterative. It doesn't have to be a new Gimmick all the damned time. a Modern Switch with all the bells and whistles is what they need. Not some halfcocked gimmick. They are in a place they dont like because they dont have 2 seperate lines of hardware to survive on anymore and its terrifying them. They have to be succcessful with the next hardware

 

[Dakhil]

I remember back in 2021 Jensen making a comment how mobile phones are not ready for RT based on this article https://www.tomshardware.com/news/b...-says-smartphones-arent-ready-for-ray-tracing

While Qualcolm and Meditek had made breakthroughs with mobile RT this year it's limited in terms of implementation and what games can run with their SoC.

I am sure Nvidia wants to announce their first mobile SoC to use full on ray tracing or there will be a joint direct/conference of Nintendo and Nvidia showcasing the new switch.

Depends on what "fully on ray tracing" means.

If "fully on ray tracing" means the same ray tracing level as the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, then AMD (via Samsung) technically beat Nvidia, Arm, and Qualcomm with the Exynos 2200.

But if "fully on ray tracing" means achieving level 3 or higher ray tracing, then I do believe Nvidia (via Nintendo) can be the first to do so in a mobile SoC.

Of course, whether or not Imagination Technologies is full of shit is a completely different story altogether.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Finally watched the DF video. John reiterated two points throughout the video:

1) That the next-gen hardware isn't coming out in 2023. "I don't think this is coming out in 2023....I'll just say that much".
2) Nintendo is very nervous about a transition to new hardware.

I just can't imagine Drake coming out in 2024. All the tech inside would be 4 years old at that point. Nvidia would be a full two generations ahead with its consumer GPU tech by the time it comes out.

The only way 2024 makes sense to me is if they ran into some issues with the hardware that need fixed.

 

[Truno]

What does he know...

So the Bloomberg reporting of 11+ developers with devkits is now obsolete? What a strange development

Finally watched the DF video. John reiterated two points throughout the video:

1) That the next-gen hardware isn't coming out in 2023. "I don't think this is coming out in 2023....I'll just say that much".
2) Nintendo is very nervous about a transition to new hardware.

I just can't imagine Drake coming out in 2024. All the tech inside would be 4 years old at that point. Nvidia would be a full two generations ahead with its consumer GPU tech by the time it comes out.

The second point isn't speculation? Although, considering Nintendo's history with consoles, I understand why they'd be nervous

 

[Sol]

if Nintendo is nervous, they aren't helping themselves. Switch hit its peak and has entered decline period. Thats not to say its only going to sell 1 million units next year or anything but you don't wait until the system is dead before you launch its replacement.

If anything, Nintendo's problem is it forgets that its ok to be iterative. It doesn't have to be a new Gimmick all the damned time. a Modern Switch with all the bells and whistles is what they need. Not some halfcocked gimmick. They are in a place they dont like because they dont have 2 seperate lines of hardware to survive on anymore and its terrifying them. They have to be succcessful with the next hardware

Agree. I hate how they feel like they need to reinvent the wheel with every single new console.

Take a page out of Sony's book. Give us the same form factor, a powerful new SoC, and name it the "Switch 2". That's all they have to do for it to be successful. After that it just comes down to the games.

If they try and get cute with the name, concept, or add worthless new gimmicks that drive up the price, it will be more likely to fail IMO.

 

[mariodk18]

Here are all relevant quotes from Mochizuki:

Aug 24, 2020

Nintendo Co. plans to debut an upgraded model of its Switch console next year along with a lineup of new games, people familiar with the matter said, ceding 2020’s holiday spotlight to rival devices from Sony Corp. and Microsoft Corp.


The specifications of the new machine have yet to be finalized, though the Kyoto-based company has looked into including more computing power and 4K high-definition graphics.

Sep 9, 2020

Nintendo is making preparations for an upgraded Switch model and a beefed-up games lineup for 2021, Bloomberg News has reported. Several outside game developers, speaking anonymously as the issue is private, said that Nintendo has asked them to make their games 4K-ready, suggesting a resolution upgrade is on its way.

Mar 4, 2021

The latest model will also come with 4K ultra-high definition graphics when paired with TVs, they said.

Mar 23, 2021

Nintendo Co. plans to adopt an upgraded Nvidia Corp. chip with better graphics and processing for a new Switch model planned for the year-end shopping season, according to people familiar with the matter.


The new Switch iteration will support Nvidia’s Deep Learning Super Sampling, or DLSS, a novel rendering technology that uses artificial intelligence to deliver higher-fidelity graphics more efficiently. That will allow the console, which is also set for an OLED display upgrade, to reproduce game visuals at 4K quality when plugged into a TV, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the plan is not public.


The U.S. company’s new chipset will also bring a better CPU and increased memory. DLSS support will require new code to be added to games, so it’ll primarily be used to improve graphics on upcoming titles, said the people, including multiple game developers. Bloomberg News previously reported that the new Switch is likely to include a 7-inch OLED screen from Samsung Display Co. and couple the console’s release with a bounty of new games.

“The move should propel more support to the platform from outside software developers, thus it’s definitely a big plus to hardware and software sales,” said Morningstar Research analyst Kazunori Ito. “Nintendo is learning well from mistakes in the past, when its hit Wii lost momentum so quickly because the console wasn’t compatible with high-definition resolution.” The Switch games release calendar remains mostly empty for the latter half of the year.

May 26, 2021

The new console, likely to be priced higher than the $299 original, may be announced ahead of the E3 conference starting June 12 to allow publishers to showcase their full range of Switch games at the global event, the people said, asking not to be named because the plans are not yet public.

Sep 29, 2021

But a system capable of handling 4K games isn’t expected to be released until late next year at the earliest, people familiar with the plans said. That leaves Nintendo at a technical disadvantage to rivals, whose shares have soared this year while Nintendo’s have lost 20%. It also risks alienating developers who have spent months tailoring their games to take advantage of upgraded hardware capabilities. It also risks alienating developers who have spent months tailoring their games to take advantage of upgraded hardware capabilities.


It was also supposed to contain a faster chip from Nvidia Corp. that would enable 4K graphics when connected to a television, people familiar with the plan said in March. Nvidia declined to comment. But the 4K capability didn’t come to pass. It’s unclear exactly when the design changed. The reason, according to a person familiar with Nintendo’s hardware planning, was component shortages, a far-reaching problem born out of the Covid-19 pandemic. After unveiling the Switch OLED, Nintendo said it had “no plans for launching any other model at this time.”

By the time Nintendo showed off the new console in July, the company had already handed out the 4K kits to outside developers and asked them to design software to support the higher resolution. Developers declined to speculate on Nintendo’s plans for another console but said they expect to release their 4K Switch games during or after the second half of next year. Last month, Zynga said that Star Wars: Hunters, a game for the Switch and smartphones, will likely be delayed until 2022 after initially being planned for release this year. Although Bloomberg identified 11 companies using the 4K kits, the actual number is probably much higher.


Nintendo could still decide to not release a 4K Switch. The Kyoto, Japan-based company has quietly shelved numerous products over the years for strategic reasons or technical challenges. One noteworthy example is a sleep monitor called Quality of Life that the company unveiled in 2014 and never sold. For developers that expended considerable resources preparing for a 4K console, the lack of an upgrade would complicate plans and may add the burden of converting their projects to support lesser hardware.

*As a side note, I found this at the end of an article:

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Leading credence to my claim that Emily knew someone with a Bloomberg Terminal subscription or had one herself, explaining her near identical wording to Mochizuki's article that Pro/ new HW was "imminent".

 

[LiC]

I don't believe anyone at DF has any idea how Nintendo "feels" about new hardware.

 

[Sol]

The second point isn't speculation? I mean, it wouldn't be surprising considering their history

Oh I agree. Nintendo should be nervous. Given their console release history following successful systems there's a good chance any new system won't match the popularity of the current Switch.

 

[antonz]

Nintendo having concerns is absolutely believable. Would they really share that with 3rd parties that I do have a hard time believing. Switch has backed Nintendo into a corner. They really cant afford to break the Switch back into separate hardware lines again. So the next hardware is either a massive hit and they continue riding the good times or its potentially a bomb and some very tough decisions get to be made.

 

[Truno]

Oh I agree. Nintendo should be nervous. Given their console release history following successful systems there's a good chance any new system won't match the popularity of the current Switch.

I think we're being a bit hyperbolic given the current state of the discussion. Nintendo has seen failure after massive successes, but the Switch isn't in the same situation. It's still a popular console and that popularity can be attributed to the consolidation of Nintendo's output.

Even if they double down on a tacked-on gimmick for the successor, I refuse to believe that a handheld can fail with: Pokemon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, 3D Mario/Zelda, Splatoon, 'X' Sports, etc. At worst it'll have "good" sales

 

[Quailman]

Depends on what "fully on ray tracing" means.

If "fully on ray tracing" means the same ray tracing level as the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, then AMD (via Samsung) technically beat Nvidia, Arm, and Qualcomm with the Exynos 2200.

But if "fully on ray tracing" means achieving level 3 or higher ray tracing, then I do believe Nvidia (via Nintendo) can be the first to do so in a mobile SoC.

Of course, whether or not Imagination Technologies is full of shit is a completely different story altogether.

I do believe Nvidia want's to be ambitious with RT on mobile hardware so I do believe they can achieve level 3 RT through Nintendo as well.

I also like to think Nvidia is very arrogant so they may come out and say something crazy like the first mobile hardware to fully utilize RT or something like that.

 

[ADR91]

This is what I was describing as heavy and what I needed 100% confirmation on before reporting.

I'll share what I have uncovered in recent months in the coming weeks. I've been chasing down this story and attempting to tie loose ends for a few months now. It's not something I wanted to touch without every angle being covered.

Revision being shelved.

I talk with contacts (developers, publishers, supply chain contacts, etc) and get the best information I can from them. For the past few months, I've been having conversations with them and chasing down leads. Looking for confirmation on plans/timing/etc...

My main gripe regarding the reliability of your information is that from the way you put it, it seems like your statement about a revision supposedly due for 2023 having been shelved is actually the conclusion of some kind of investigation you've conducted over the course of the past few months, piecing together various bits of information gathered from different sources before extrapolating from that.

In other words, it appears this is some kind of theory of yours, rather than a hard piece of information gathered from some reliable source.

The thing is, regardless of whether or not you're legit as an insider (and believe me, I'm not trying to spur a debate on that question), as long as you don't provide us with some context as to how you came to your conclusion, no one here can assess for themselves whether or not that conclusion is sound.

The issue at hand is that even assuming you're not actually lying about anything, your information lacks what in the field of science we call falsifiability, or refutability. Expecting people to believe your conclusions without providing any context amounts to expecting blind trust, and as much as some people here like to see you as some kind of messiah, I personally don't believe anyone deserves to be trusted blindly.

Now by 'context', I mean of course as many details as you can provide regarding what exactly you've been told, as well as the exact position your sources occupy within the industry (no need to cite any names, of course).

If you're not willing to provide that context, I dare say your info is worth nothing in the light of the hard information we have from the Nvidia leak which strongly suggests, regardless of any release date, that Nintendo hardware based on the T239 chip actually exists, will come out eventually, and that there has never been any project for a revision based on any other chip that would also feature DLSS and RT, in which case you would probably have done better to say nothing at all, for the sake of the well-being of everyone in this thread.

Actually, without that context, it's hard to even understand what exactly you're meaning to say. What do you mean with 'shelved' in the first place? Is that cancelled or simply delayed? And what do you even envision by a 'mid-gen revision'?

Moreover, whatever reasoning may have led you to believe that Nintendo was planning on releasing a revision of the Switch in 2023 before changing their mind, that reasoning is all the more subject to caution considering that you're trying to establish a negative here (i.e. the absence of new hardware coming out in 2023), which arguably is much trickier than trying to establish if, and when, new hardware is actually coming.

It takes nothing more than some leaked files from Nvidia or a report from a developer about some new devkit to conclude that there's new hardware in the works. Establishing that said hardware has been cancelled, or delayed, or won't be coming out during a certain civil year however, is something else entirely.

I will also point out that over the past few weeks, or even months, you've been insistingly implying that you had some significant info regarding new Nintendo hardware, while consistently refusing to tell anything more due to the necessity to get enough confirmation before making it public.

Why is it that you chose to come out with that information only a few hours after DF uploads a video where they happen to express some views that are in line with your own expectations?

I cannot help but be under the impression that the only reason you're spilling the information right now is because DF's video has made you concerned that your 'information' might become common knowledge before you'd be able to take credit for it. Does that make it any more confirmed or any more reliable than it was 24 hours ago, when you were still reluctant to make it public? Certainly not.

If a few days ago you thought there was a chance your information might not be correct, it could be just as wrong at the present time, really.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I do believe Nvidia want's to be ambitious with RT on mobile hardware so I do believe they can achieve level 3 RT through Nintendo as well.

I also like to think Nvidia is very arrogant so they may come out and say something crazy like the first mobile hardware to fully utilize RT or something like that.

Well it wouldn't be true. But I can see them making a demo and saying "other mobile devices can't do this"

 

[Deleted member 1324]

Ninjas

 

[ShadowFox08]

Finally watched the DF video. John reiterated two points throughout the video:

1) That the next-gen hardware isn't coming out in 2023. "I don't think this is coming out in 2023....I'll just say that much".
2) Nintendo is very nervous about a transition to new hardware.

I just can't imagine Drake coming out in 2024. All the tech inside would be 4 years old at that point. Nvidia would be a full two generations ahead with its consumer GPU tech by the time it comes out.

Maybe we should be clear that it's his opinion that he doesn't think we are getting a successor next year. Not as fact. We don't know how much he knows other than whatever pro got canceled from his insiders. At least to me, it doesn't sound like he knows anything more than we do about Drake

And yep. It's weird for Nintendo. Tbey haven't had a home console last this long with the momentum it has this late into it's life. I just don't get why Nintendo would go through the trouble of having to label Drake as a pro in the first place, even initially.. When they could be like Sony on how they handled PS4 and PS5. It's just the timing that is important. I know they don't want to kill off the Switch, but they are aware it's hardware is outdated.

 

[LinkURL]

My crazy theory in this whole story:

• At some point Nintendo and Nvidia came to work with the overclocked Mariko, but gave up turning it into the Red Box Switch.
• They took the ideas they had and tried to work with the Orin line, the first attempt being the T236 (Dane), 8SM, DLSS, 8nm Samsung and A78C CPU. (Here happens the first leak of Nate)
• The work with T236 even advanced but they found problems, with the battery life and the chips shortage, the SoC was always being delayed and with each delay it became more powerful.
• However, Nintendo had already warned partner developers that there were plans for a 4K Switch, and had even produced some devkits. (Here happens the famous Bloomberg article)
• 2021, Dane is once again delayed and they launch only the shell, calling Nintendo Switch OLED.
• Dane has evolved so much to this point that they change the project nomenclature, now calling it T239 (Drake), the plans are 12SMs, more RAM and possibly another manufacturing node. (It is in this moment of transition that the Kopite7kimi leak happens, mixing information from Drake and Dane)
• Nintendo warns developers now of a possible H2 2022 / H1 2023 release, not yet fully decided whether to sell just as an overhaul or as a new system. (This is where Nate gets the release date info we know)
• Mid 2022, Nintendo decides, it will no longer be a hardware revision but a new generation, using the full potential of the Tegra T239 (Drake), which does impact third parties as some still use the first devkits designed for Dane. (Here comes the information from the DF and new information from Nate)
• Possibly along with this repositioning there was also another release delay, but this is information that is still cloudy, what we know is that the 2022/2023 mid-gen was cancelled, but we don't know much about the release of the new gen , however due to the maturity of the data we have on Drake, in my opinion the best bet is still a release with TotK.

 

[Serif]

If the T239 Shield TV comes out before the Switch 2 I'm gonna buy one and slap a Switch sticker on it. :')

 

[LinkURL]

My crazy theory in this whole story:

• At some point Nintendo and Nvidia came to work with the overclocked Mariko, but gave up turning it into the Red Box Switch.
• They took the ideas they had and tried to work with the Orin line, the first attempt being the T236 (Dane), 8SM, DLSS, 8nm Samsung and A78C CPU. (Here happens the first leak of Nate)
• The work with T236 even advanced but they found problems, with the battery life and the chips shortage, the SoC was always being delayed and with each delay it became more powerful.
• However, Nintendo had already warned partner developers that there were plans for a 4K Switch, and had even produced some devkits. (Here happens the famous Bloomberg article)
• 2021, Dane is once again delayed and they launch only the shell, calling Nintendo Switch OLED.
• Dane has evolved so much to this point that they change the project nomenclature, now calling it T239 (Drake), the plans are 12SMs, more RAM and possibly another manufacturing node. (It is in this moment of transition that the Kopite7kimi leak happens, mixing information from Drake and Dane)
• Nintendo warns developers now of a possible H2 2022 / H1 2023 release, not yet fully decided whether to sell just as an overhaul or as a new system. (This is where Nate gets the release date info we know)
• Mid 2022, Nintendo decides, it will no longer be a hardware revision but a new generation, using the full potential of the Tegra T239 (Drake), which does impact third parties as some still use the first devkits designed for Dane. (Here comes the information from the DF and new information from Nate)
• Possibly along with this repositioning there was also another release delay, but this is information that is still cloudy, what we know is that the 2022/2023 mid-gen was cancelled, but we don't know much about the release of the new gen , however due to the maturity of the data we have on Drake, in my opinion the best bet is still a release with TotK.

All of which would explain Nate's confusion, first he hears about a new Switch, with PS4 + DLSS power and A78 cores, then a release date, and now that revision has been cancelled.
In fact, in his view, the first description of what "Dane" would be, is very similar to what "Drake" is today (except precisely the power of PS4, which on Drake will be PS4 PRO even before DLSS), and so he still believed that this would be the 2022/2023 revision that has now been cancelled.
As third parties do not have access to Nintendo's plans, what it always looked like was a revision being always delayed and now canceled in favor of a new gen, this view of a cancellation and not a "brand repositioning" gets even more strong for devs with old kits, with now Nintendo coming in and saying those kits won't be used anymore as they are working on a new gen.

 

[LinkURL]

If the T239 Shield TV comes out before the Switch 2 I'm gonna buy one and slap a Switch sticker on it. :')

I don't believe that a Shield TV would use a SoC in the T239 level.

 

[mariodk18]

If we need a smoking gun to "prove" the red-hot connection of T239 to Nintendo, then we also need a smoking gun to claim that Drake isn't coming out next year. After the past two years, we're supposed to just roll over and accept that nothing is coming out next year and some old, irrelevant revision was canceled? It's not going to be that easy. It's almost like that "Jesse what the fuck are you talking about?" meme.

Like Richard asks a straight "Do you think Switch 2 is coming out next year?" and John says, " I don't believe- I think at one point- from what I understand-from talking to different developers, is that there was some sort of mid-generation Switch update planned at one point. And that is- seems to be no longer happening and it's pretty clear that whatever they do next is gonna be the actual next generation hardware. I don't think it's gonna be 2023. And I think Nintendo is probably very nervous about this transition."

Does this sound like someone with a solid insider source that they are fully confident in? Especially from someone representing a channel known for its hard, fact-based analysis? Like, not only is he extremely unsure of something he doesn't believe will happen, but if you read the quote above, it's clear that he isn't even sure this mid-gen system began production or had dev kits sent out. That's it. Somehow John misinterpreted the question and the only take away from his statement is that any plans for a mid-gen refresh were only considerations and never got off the ground. He believes (as many of us already do) that everything we've heard since 2021- Drake that is- is next gen, regardless of marketing.

Then he starts talking about Nintendo's ups and downs and what they're gonna name it. Or how nervous Nintendo probably is about their transition, which is likely sourced from that poorly, early translated investor Q&A about Nintendo's next-gen transition. All to a simple yes or no question.

Oliver brings up that if it ends up using the T239, it would be a massive increase and have new tech like DLSS, while explicitly showing (likely edited in by Richard?) the linux update. He doesn't think Switch 2 will come in 2023 and says "maybe" 2024. Then John says Switch 2 has to be able to receive PS5/XBS games easily or "they'll be in serious trouble", despite the current Switch succeeding with barely any PS4/XB1 miracle ports.

Richard's only pushback is that Nintendo "aren't interested in state-of-the-art or RT" and that they care a lot about battery life, so he's not expecting anything "major" . Which many would argue is untrue given that the Switch launched with a 2.5 hour battery life- less than the launch 3DS (3hr) and all the borderline confirmations that Drake has DLSS and RT. He only hopes it happens and that it's still not confirmed.

So no one today, in any shape or form, has said anything concrete regarding whether any kind of new hardware would be launching in 2023. And of course they wouldn't. That kind of valuable info would be first revealed in a Eurogamer article- not in a random, throwaway response to a a podcast question.

 

[Pokemaniac]

My crazy theory in this whole story:

• At some point Nintendo and Nvidia came to work with the overclocked Mariko, but gave up turning it into the Red Box Switch.
• They took the ideas they had and tried to work with the Orin line, the first attempt being the T236 (Dane), 8SM, DLSS, 8nm Samsung and A78C CPU. (Here happens the first leak of Nate)
• The work with T236 even advanced but they found problems, with the battery life and the chips shortage, the SoC was always being delayed and with each delay it became more powerful.
• However, Nintendo had already warned partner developers that there were plans for a 4K Switch, and had even produced some devkits. (Here happens the famous Bloomberg article)
• 2021, Dane is once again delayed and they launch only the shell, calling Nintendo Switch OLED.
• Dane has evolved so much to this point that they change the project nomenclature, now calling it T239 (Drake), the plans are 12SMs, more RAM and possibly another manufacturing node. (It is in this moment of transition that the Kopite7kimi leak happens, mixing information from Drake and Dane)
• Nintendo warns developers now of a possible H2 2022 / H1 2023 release, not yet fully decided whether to sell just as an overhaul or as a new system. (This is where Nate gets the release date info we know)
• Mid 2022, Nintendo decides, it will no longer be a hardware revision but a new generation, using the full potential of the Tegra T239 (Drake), which does impact third parties as some still use the first devkits designed for Dane. (Here comes the information from the DF and new information from Nate)
• Possibly along with this repositioning there was also another release delay, but this is information that is still cloudy, what we know is that the 2022/2023 mid-gen was cancelled, but we don't know much about the release of the new gen , however due to the maturity of the data we have on Drake, in my opinion the best bet is still a release with TotK.

There are some pretty dubious leaps in there. In particular, there's really no evidence Switch OLED ever contained any chip besides Mariko.

 

[BlueManifest]

I’m not even a insider and I said for the last 2 years that it was too late for a mid gen refresh and any rumors we heard about would be for a next gen Nintendo system

 

[BlueManifest]

If we need a smoking gun to "prove" the red-hot connection of T239 to Nintendo, then we also need a smoking gun to claim that Drake isn't coming out next year. After the past two years, we're supposed to just roll over and accept that nothing is coming out next year and some old, irrelevant revision was canceled? It's not going to be that easy. It's almost like that "Jesse what the fuck are you talking about?" meme.

Like Richard asks a straight "Do you think Switch 2 is coming out next year?" and John says, " I don't believe- I think at one point- from what I understand-from talking to different developers, is that there was some sort of mid-generation Switch update planned at one point. And that is- seems to be no longer happening and it's pretty clear that whatever they do next is gonna be the actual next generation hardware. I don't think it's gonna be 2023. And I think Nintendo is probably very nervous about this transition."

Does this sound like someone with a solid insider source that they are fully confident in? Especially from someone representing a channel known for its hard, fact-based analysis? Like, not only is he extremely unsure of something he doesn't believe will happen, but if you read the quote above, it's clear that he isn't even sure this mid-gen system began production or had dev kits sent out. That's it. Somehow John misinterpreted the question and the only take away from his statement is that any plans for a mid-gen refresh were only considerations and never got off the ground. He believes (as many of us already do) that everything we've heard since 2021- Drake that is- is next gen, regardless of marketing.

Then he starts talking about Nintendo's ups and downs and what they're gonna name it. Or how nervous Nintendo probably is about their transition, which is likely sourced from that poorly, early translated investor Q&A about Nintendo's next-gen transition. All to a simple yes or no question.

Oliver brings up that if it ends up using the T239, it would be a massive increase and have new tech like DLSS, while explicitly showing (likely edited in by Richard?) the linux update. He doesn't think Switch 2 will come in 2023 and says "maybe" 2024. Then John says Switch 2 has to be able to receive PS5/XBS games easily or "they'll be in serious trouble", despite the current Switch succeeding with barely any PS4/XB1 miracle ports.

Richard's only pushback is that Nintendo "aren't interested in state-of-the-art or RT" and that they care a lot about battery life, so he's not expecting anything "major" . Which many would argue is untrue given that the Switch launched with a 2.5 hour battery life- less than the launch 3DS (3hr) and all the borderline confirmations that Drake has DLSS and RT. He only hopes it happens and that it's still not confirmed.

So no one today, in any shape or form, has said anything concrete regarding whether any kind of new hardware would be launching in 2023. And of course they wouldn't. That kind of valuable info would be first revealed in a Eurogamer article- not in a random, throwaway response to a a podcast question.

I still think 2023 is possible but it’s been so long since we got any real good leaks that the chances of it being 2024 instead are increasing, if it was coming 2023 I feel like we would have more concrete rumors by now

Maybe late 2023 best case, it’s def not early or mid 2023

 

[mariodk18]

I still think 2023 is possible but it’s been so long since we got any real good leaks that the chances of it being 2024 instead are increasing, if it was coming 2023 I feel like we would have more concrete rumors by now

Maybe late 2023 best case, it’s def not early or mid 2023

You could say the same for the opposite. If it wasn't happening in 2023, then we would've heard something by now. In fact, one could say the silence further supports the idea that Nintendo is gearing up for something big. Soon.

 

[kojimaposting]

You could say the same for the opposite. If it wasn't happening in 2023, then we would've heard something by now. In fact, one could say the silence further supports the idea that Nintendo is gearing up for something big. Soon.

Rumours and leaks/rumblings aside, the original Switch rollout was also pretty condensed (not considering the previous "NX" announcement which I think was more of a necessity back then). October reveal, January blowout, March release.

I think if we see a similar pattern here, it'd shift to January/April/May. Announce post FE release, keynote 6 weeks before launch in April, launch alongside TOTK. I mean there's also a case for this same scenario playing out 2H23 or 1H24 with a different flagship title, but to me everything seems to be lining up similar to the way things did for the Zelda launch in 2017.

No way to know for sure until they're ready to say it, which makes the speculation even more agonising I've had so much to catch up on today!

 

[karmitt]

If we need a smoking gun to "prove" the red-hot connection of T239 to Nintendo, then we also need a smoking gun to claim that Drake isn't coming out next year. After the past two years, we're supposed to just roll over and accept that nothing is coming out next year and some old, irrelevant revision was canceled? It's not going to be that easy. It's almost like that "Jesse what the fuck are you talking about?" meme.

Like Richard asks a straight "Do you think Switch 2 is coming out next year?" and John says, " I don't believe- I think at one point- from what I understand-from talking to different developers, is that there was some sort of mid-generation Switch update planned at one point. And that is- seems to be no longer happening and it's pretty clear that whatever they do next is gonna be the actual next generation hardware. I don't think it's gonna be 2023. And I think Nintendo is probably very nervous about this transition."

Does this sound like someone with a solid insider source that they are fully confident in? Especially from someone representing a channel known for its hard, fact-based analysis? Like, not only is he extremely unsure of something he doesn't believe will happen, but if you read the quote above, it's clear that he isn't even sure this mid-gen system began production or had dev kits sent out. That's it. Somehow John misinterpreted the question and the only take away from his statement is that any plans for a mid-gen refresh were only considerations and never got off the ground. He believes (as many of us already do) that everything we've heard since 2021- Drake that is- is next gen, regardless of marketing.

Then he starts talking about Nintendo's ups and downs and what they're gonna name it. Or how nervous Nintendo probably is about their transition, which is likely sourced from that poorly, early translated investor Q&A about Nintendo's next-gen transition. All to a simple yes or no question.

Oliver brings up that if it ends up using the T239, it would be a massive increase and have new tech like DLSS, while explicitly showing (likely edited in by Richard?) the linux update. He doesn't think Switch 2 will come in 2023 and says "maybe" 2024. Then John says Switch 2 has to be able to receive PS5/XBS games easily or "they'll be in serious trouble", despite the current Switch succeeding with barely any PS4/XB1 miracle ports.

Richard's only pushback is that Nintendo "aren't interested in state-of-the-art or RT" and that they care a lot about battery life, so he's not expecting anything "major" . Which many would argue is untrue given that the Switch launched with a 2.5 hour battery life- less than the launch 3DS (3hr) and all the borderline confirmations that Drake has DLSS and RT. He only hopes it happens and that it's still not confirmed.

So no one today, in any shape or form, has said anything concrete regarding whether any kind of new hardware would be launching in 2023. And of course they wouldn't. That kind of valuable info would be first revealed in a Eurogamer article- not in a random, throwaway response to a a podcast question.

I hadn’t listened to DF yet. The whole topic is a tad disheartening. But with the quote you provided it does seem to be lacking certainty. It feels a little ridiculous however thinking that there was something planned for 2023 and it’s been cancelled but ok wait there’s still another similar but different thing that’s not cancelled.

 

[Dakhil]

I am sure Nvidia wants to announce their first mobile SoC to use full on ray tracing or there will be a joint direct/conference of Nintendo and Nvidia showcasing the new switch.

Or like with the Nintendo Switch, Nvidia posts a blog post about how Drake (without explicitly naming the SoC) supports the DLSS 2.0+ and RTX technologies from one of Nvidia's greatest GPU architectures, especially if Nintendo asks Nvidia to temporarily not go into detail about the SoC (at least until Nvidia announces another product using Drake).

 

[mariodk18]

if it was coming 2023 I feel like we would have more concrete rumors by now

Also, we've had z0m3le confirm multiple times that the factory uncle source, that confirmed the exact announcement timing of the Splatoon 3 OLED, has said that production is starting next month on a new model of some kind. So there we go. That would be one of our first real non-Nvidia "leaks" in quite a while.

 

[Serif]

I don't believe that a Shield TV would use a SoC in the T239 level.

The previous Shield TVs used the Erista and Mariko chips. I don't see why a Drake Shield TV is off the table. I imagine that's one of the reasons for the Linux kernel updates. There were Linux kernel commits for T214 (Mariko) in 2019 prior to the Shield TV '19, and the only devices using T214 are the Switch and the Shield TV.

 

[Thugstas]

I’m going out with a lot of the lads I went to school with and their work mates on Hogmanay. I’ll ask around. Last I heard it’s 100% planned for Q2 which is why I’m so confident it will launch the same day as Zelda unless something drastic goes wrong.

No delay with Zelda …. This game is ready to be launched in May.

 

[TonyBaduy]

If some hardware was cancelled I can’t see it being Drake.

Not saying Drake it's cancelled, just that the possibility that the Switch 2 won't be using it anymore exists and that means there is no current SoC it could use, thus a new one would be required and since none exists, it'd need to be developed and that could take up to 4 years again.

 

[Thugstas]

Not saying Drake it's cancelled, just that the possibility that the Switch 2 won't be using it anymore exists and that means there is no current SoC it could use, thus a new one would be required and since none exists, it'd need to be developed and that could take up to 4 years again.

Too much leak/search / hack tend to tell Drake IS the new Soc

 

[Meelow]

I’m going out with a lot of the lads I went to school with and their work mates on Hogmanay. I’ll ask around. Last I heard it’s 100% planned for Q2 which is why I’m so confident it will launch the same day as Zelda unless something drastic goes wrong.

Are you saying the Switch 2 is launching in May?

Wait who are you exactly?

 

[Dakhil]

I personally think there's a possibility Nintendo releases new hardware equipped with Drake before Tears of the Kingdom is released (perhaps around April 2022), especially if Nintendo wants to gradually increase hardware stock, instead of stockpiling hardware stock all at once, so Nintendo can more easily fulfil demand.

 

[LiC]

I hadn’t listened to DF yet. The whole topic is a tad disheartening. But with the quote you provided it does seem to be lacking certainty. It feels a little ridiculous however thinking that there was something planned for 2023 and it’s been cancelled but ok wait there’s still another similar but different thing that’s not cancelled.

I think more people should actually read the exchange from DF (notes by Serif here). They really don't say much. I think it's pretty similar to their offhand mentions of Nintendo devkits and other things over the past year. Is it sourced info? Glorified speculation and gap-filling? Something in between?

Regardless, the idea that a cancelled mid-gen refresh is connected to a 2023 release, or that said cancelled hardware is connected to T239 and its features like DLSS and RT, has come from Nate's posts only (in the DF conversation, after the very small mention of a mid-gen refresh, one of them even goes on to speculate about the next-gen Switch using T239). And those posts don't make much sense to me. 2023 is the wrong year for a mid-gen refresh. Late 2020 is way too early to distribute devkits for a mid-gen refresh if you're only planning to release it in 2023. DLSS and RT are the wrong features for a mid-gen refresh and T239 is the wrong chip for it.

If a "refresh" ever had DLSS and RT on the table, it would require jumping ahead in architecture while overhauling things for backwards compatibility, OS integration, board design, etc. to such an extent that it wouldn't be a refresh anymore. And while I understand the conspiracy theory that this is exactly what happened (leading to a refresh being cancelled in favor of a successor), the much more likely explanation for this contradiction is that such a device was never planned.

Was something planned? Right now we have one member of DF saying so in a pretty offhand way, Mochizuki being cryptic about it (and at this point, he still hasn't demonstrated he can get his story straight for the 2-3 different Switch upgrades he may have reported on), and Nate seeming to agree but with additional info tied into it that doesn't quite make sense. So I'm a definite "maybe" on the fairly believable notion that Nintendo had some kind of modest refresh planned that didn't come to be, but the implications of that story don't seem all that big for anything else that we've been talking about for the past year or so.

 

[Kevin]

Whose ready for Pikmin 4K (come on Nintendo, it's RIGHT THERE)???

 

[Meelow]

I personally think there's a possibility Nintendo releases new hardware equipped with Drake before Tears of the Kingdom is released (perhaps around April 2022), especially if Nintendo wants to gradually increase hardware stock, instead of stockpiling hardware stock all at once, so Nintendo can more easily fulfil demand.

That's not happening, Nintendo would just release more hardware on May 12th and then have people wait a month to play TOTK.

 

[Dakhil]

That's not happening, Nintendo would just release more hardware on May 12th and then have people wait a month to play TOTK.

I assume you meant to say "...Nintendo would rather just release more hardware on May 12th than have people wait a month to play TOTK"?

Anyway, I don't believe that releasing new hardware at the exact same day as Tears of the Kingdom is absolutely necessary. (Would it be nice to have new hardware at the exact same day Tears of the Kingdom is released? Yeah. Is it absolutely necessary? I don't think so.)

 

[eye0h]

Are you saying the Switch 2 is launching in May?

Wait who are you exactly?

Some guy who says they have a developer friend. No track record.

 

[Serif]

I thought Mochi was already 'vindicated' by the NVN2 leaks since they corroborated his 4K devkit reporting. I always just assumed he mixed up the OLED model and the Drake devkit in 2021. So I'm not sure what he means by the '' to DF's podcast, as I doubt it was the 4K devkits he reported on that were canned. I get the feeling that there are three to four separate devices mixed up in the conversation here when all we really care about is Drake and its release timing.

 

[bmfrosty]

My crazy theory in this whole story:

• At some point Nintendo and Nvidia came to work with the overclocked Mariko, but gave up turning it into the Red Box Switch.
• They took the ideas they had and tried to work with the Orin line, the first attempt being the T236 (Dane), 8SM, DLSS, 8nm Samsung and A78C CPU. (Here happens the first leak of Nate)
• The work with T236 even advanced but they found problems, with the battery life and the chips shortage, the SoC was always being delayed and with each delay it became more powerful.
• However, Nintendo had already warned partner developers that there were plans for a 4K Switch, and had even produced some devkits. (Here happens the famous Bloomberg article)
• 2021, Dane is once again delayed and they launch only the shell, calling Nintendo Switch OLED.
• Dane has evolved so much to this point that they change the project nomenclature, now calling it T239 (Drake), the plans are 12SMs, more RAM and possibly another manufacturing node. (It is in this moment of transition that the Kopite7kimi leak happens, mixing information from Drake and Dane)
• Nintendo warns developers now of a possible H2 2022 / H1 2023 release, not yet fully decided whether to sell just as an overhaul or as a new system. (This is where Nate gets the release date info we know)
• Mid 2022, Nintendo decides, it will no longer be a hardware revision but a new generation, using the full potential of the Tegra T239 (Drake), which does impact third parties as some still use the first devkits designed for Dane. (Here comes the information from the DF and new information from Nate)
• Possibly along with this repositioning there was also another release delay, but this is information that is still cloudy, what we know is that the 2022/2023 mid-gen was cancelled, but we don't know much about the release of the new gen , however due to the maturity of the data we have on Drake, in my opinion the best bet is still a release with TotK.

I agree in all the ways that matter in this timeline. I think they had a tick tock pattern in mind for the switch with a two year cadence. I think that they originally meant for 2021 to be a year with a more capable Switch with an Oled screen and for whatever reason they delayed the increase in capabilities by 2 years.

 

[bmfrosty]

Is there a post that lists what Drake is currently expected to be? I was hoping for something big and bold in the op, but didn't spot it.

 

[chocolate_supra]

Is there a post that lists what Drake is currently expected to be? I was hoping for something big and bold in the op, but didn't spot it.

@oldpuck wrote up a "simplified summary" that you can find in the threadmarks

 

[Discostew]

Richard's only pushback is that Nintendo "aren't interested in state-of-the-art or RT" and that they care a lot about battery life, so he's not expecting anything "major" .

But Nintendo did state during a 2020 Management Briefing that they were looking into both cutting edge technology AND battery life, moving away from the conventional low-power tech.

 

[ArchedThunder]

If the T239 Shield TV comes out before the Switch 2 I'm gonna buy one and slap a Switch sticker on it. :')

For what purpose would a new Shield TV need RT cores and DLSS? It’s not like it’d be positioned as a gaming device.