I have prettier guts, so clearly, my opinion matters more
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Disorientator
Cappy
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- He/Him
Look, Fami has always been, or tried hardly to, a welcoming community for everyone, news and old. Nate is one of our oldest members, and we have been proud to have him all this time, so I think, even in times were things crumble, we should do our best and try even harder to be that beautiful and warming fami, and I can't stress the importance of that enough.
That said, we're still in a discussion thread, and some possible news have been dropped. I think it's OK (and we have been doing so for a long time) to not take everything at face value and, at least, try to comprehend all those things that doesn't seem right. There are two things that still doesn't add up to me (appart from a lot of others that has already been said):
1) Nate has always, always explicitly said that he didn't have access to marketing decissions - from the Direct branding to knowing if the next hardware would be a successor or a revision. But now it seems not only he has the knowledge, but that he has knew about that for literally years? And even more baffling, he has spent what seems like a whole year chasing some kind of hard confirmation on this huge bomb he had, but whenever DF literally goes hearsay, that is... enough? That doesn't add up at all for me.
2) Anyway, let's assume that the timeline and events are correct. There's this revision going on, the kits go out in the wild and suddenly, Nintendo realizes that it is not gonna be as good as they would want to or that their software is in very good shape and they don't need that revision. In the timeline propposed in quite a few posts, trying to make sense of this, the gap between the revision and the successor would be like, what, 18 months? 2 years? Given all we now about the T239 (and that is as confirmed as anything can possibly be), it can not go further at all. So... are you telling me, for real, that a revision which 1) would make the games run, we don't know how much but pressumibly, better or way better, 2) in a time where the discourse around the Switch is going a little down, 3) but also a time in which their software, and specially a revision like the OLED is selling bonkers and everything Switch is in amazing health... would not be released, because... it is not needed per se? Appart from all the R&D expenses? And (and this is the crucial point) saying with this decission fuck you to those big gaming studios that had your dev kit and whose support you NEED for your next-gen? Like, in what world, instead of releasing your new hardware, that would sell bonkers and actually help sell more software and whose R&D you have already been paid, gets canned putting in jeopardy your relations with the top players of your sector, because... because??? Like. No sense. At all. If the thing was that you have your revision preppared for 2023 and wanted your successor in 2024, it makes way more sense to push back the succ 6 months instead of nailing the coffin for both your new and next hardware. I honestly don't understand it, to be fair. Which is a way of saying that, I, personally, when looking at this new info, and all the doubts that arise with it, and then looking at what we knew from Nvidia, I hardly press doubt on it.
Does this all mean that they're wrong? Not at all. A lot can perfectly be me missunderstanding something. But right now, this are my top current doubts.
That said, we're still in a discussion thread, and some possible news have been dropped. I think it's OK (and we have been doing so for a long time) to not take everything at face value and, at least, try to comprehend all those things that doesn't seem right. There are two things that still doesn't add up to me (appart from a lot of others that has already been said):
1) Nate has always, always explicitly said that he didn't have access to marketing decissions - from the Direct branding to knowing if the next hardware would be a successor or a revision. But now it seems not only he has the knowledge, but that he has knew about that for literally years? And even more baffling, he has spent what seems like a whole year chasing some kind of hard confirmation on this huge bomb he had, but whenever DF literally goes hearsay, that is... enough? That doesn't add up at all for me.
2) Anyway, let's assume that the timeline and events are correct. There's this revision going on, the kits go out in the wild and suddenly, Nintendo realizes that it is not gonna be as good as they would want to or that their software is in very good shape and they don't need that revision. In the timeline propposed in quite a few posts, trying to make sense of this, the gap between the revision and the successor would be like, what, 18 months? 2 years? Given all we now about the T239 (and that is as confirmed as anything can possibly be), it can not go further at all. So... are you telling me, for real, that a revision which 1) would make the games run, we don't know how much but pressumibly, better or way better, 2) in a time where the discourse around the Switch is going a little down, 3) but also a time in which their software, and specially a revision like the OLED is selling bonkers and everything Switch is in amazing health... would not be released, because... it is not needed per se? Appart from all the R&D expenses? And (and this is the crucial point) saying with this decission fuck you to those big gaming studios that had your dev kit and whose support you NEED for your next-gen? Like, in what world, instead of releasing your new hardware, that would sell bonkers and actually help sell more software and whose R&D you have already been paid, gets canned putting in jeopardy your relations with the top players of your sector, because... because??? Like. No sense. At all. If the thing was that you have your revision preppared for 2023 and wanted your successor in 2024, it makes way more sense to push back the succ 6 months instead of nailing the coffin for both your new and next hardware. I honestly don't understand it, to be fair. Which is a way of saying that, I, personally, when looking at this new info, and all the doubts that arise with it, and then looking at what we knew from Nvidia, I hardly press doubt on it.
Does this all mean that they're wrong? Not at all. A lot can perfectly be me missunderstanding something. But right now, this are my top current doubts.
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Truno
Koopa
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Themeans "You're wrong, and you don't know you're wrong." and "Good things are coming."
I bet my pension.
It doesn't:
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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It says 2 titles are plan for Nintendo Switch than Nintendo Switch 2:Interesting turn of events.
In other news, I'm I reading this wrong or does this Falcom report (dated Dec. 23th 2022) lists an unannounced "Nintendo Switch 2" title, planned for 2023!?
Kongo B
Zero-to-death
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Great post. Thank you for your inputs, see ya next year!
Disorientator
Cappy
Yeap that should be it, cheers.
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
I've missed a few pages, so am curious what has lead to this conclusion.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Having had some time to go through everything in the last ten pages I can only conclude that this seems to be similar to the OLED situation.
We have concrete technical information direct from source, in this case its the nvidia leak and kernal commits, in the OLED case it was the data mine information.
In the case of the OLED situation some insider commentary made us in this thread doubt what we could see from the data mine in an effort to make the insider commentary fit. It turned out the data mine was 100% correct.
I can see many similarities here. I am not saying there are any bad actors or insiders and sources like digital foundry arent good at what they do. What I think is that Nintendo is running a really tight ship when it comes to this product, some of what has happened with regard to factory uncles implies this is the case.
It's natural for us as humans to interpret information in different ways, this is worse when it's second hand, third hand etc. The information DF may gleam from a few devs will already have some interpretation applied to it from that original source. Not too long ago I remember a comment from one person in this forum regarding all dev kits being taken by Nintendo from a given developer. Now this information could have been completely bunk but it may just be a misreading of the situation by someone along the chain. I'll elaborate.
Manager delivers information to his dev team around Nintendo 4k dev kits being called back by Nintendo.
Source relates this information to insider. Implies the product is being cancelled.
Manager was wrong, it was just the higher ups in the company calling the dev kits back because a new shipment of up to date kits were arriving on final silicon.
Insider interprets this information as a product cancellation. Relates it to this forum, we all add our interpretation to it.
Things like the above will be happening all the time, insiders collate lots of information from different sources, all of which will have already either correctly or incorrectly read situations, so insiders conclusions are only as good as the reasoning ability of their sources, with Nintendo clamping down with NDAs I think his issue is amplified.
So, from my own business reasoning, there is no way Nintendo cancels a product this close to its supposed launch, especially not with a chipset that's been in development for as long as T239 appears to have been, so something is off here. I'm taking it as misconstrued information, maybe a shift in Nintendos marketing, new dev kits went out with much higher clocks and extra RAM? Who knows, what I know is that especially due to the human element I am not reading into this new info much and it doesnt change what we know of this upcoming device.
So with regards to release timing? I don't think that's changed either but I don't think we have anything concrete either way, 2023/2024 seems most likely to me given final silicon of T239 exists. I don't see final silicon existing for a device it was explicitly designed for, for over a year before the products release in a device like the switch. I am with @Z0m3le in that if Nvidia announces a new shield using this silicon soon, maybe it is 2024, but at the same time it makes the most sense to release alongside TotK for me given where the chip development appears to be.
So all eyes on January/February for a potential reveal, if it doesn't happen then maybe Nintendo is going to sit on the silicon for a while.
We have concrete technical information direct from source, in this case its the nvidia leak and kernal commits, in the OLED case it was the data mine information.
In the case of the OLED situation some insider commentary made us in this thread doubt what we could see from the data mine in an effort to make the insider commentary fit. It turned out the data mine was 100% correct.
I can see many similarities here. I am not saying there are any bad actors or insiders and sources like digital foundry arent good at what they do. What I think is that Nintendo is running a really tight ship when it comes to this product, some of what has happened with regard to factory uncles implies this is the case.
It's natural for us as humans to interpret information in different ways, this is worse when it's second hand, third hand etc. The information DF may gleam from a few devs will already have some interpretation applied to it from that original source. Not too long ago I remember a comment from one person in this forum regarding all dev kits being taken by Nintendo from a given developer. Now this information could have been completely bunk but it may just be a misreading of the situation by someone along the chain. I'll elaborate.
Manager delivers information to his dev team around Nintendo 4k dev kits being called back by Nintendo.
Source relates this information to insider. Implies the product is being cancelled.
Manager was wrong, it was just the higher ups in the company calling the dev kits back because a new shipment of up to date kits were arriving on final silicon.
Insider interprets this information as a product cancellation. Relates it to this forum, we all add our interpretation to it.
Things like the above will be happening all the time, insiders collate lots of information from different sources, all of which will have already either correctly or incorrectly read situations, so insiders conclusions are only as good as the reasoning ability of their sources, with Nintendo clamping down with NDAs I think his issue is amplified.
So, from my own business reasoning, there is no way Nintendo cancels a product this close to its supposed launch, especially not with a chipset that's been in development for as long as T239 appears to have been, so something is off here. I'm taking it as misconstrued information, maybe a shift in Nintendos marketing, new dev kits went out with much higher clocks and extra RAM? Who knows, what I know is that especially due to the human element I am not reading into this new info much and it doesnt change what we know of this upcoming device.
So with regards to release timing? I don't think that's changed either but I don't think we have anything concrete either way, 2023/2024 seems most likely to me given final silicon of T239 exists. I don't see final silicon existing for a device it was explicitly designed for, for over a year before the products release in a device like the switch. I am with @Z0m3le in that if Nvidia announces a new shield using this silicon soon, maybe it is 2024, but at the same time it makes the most sense to release alongside TotK for me given where the chip development appears to be.
So all eyes on January/February for a potential reveal, if it doesn't happen then maybe Nintendo is going to sit on the silicon for a while.
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Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Yes if Nvidia announces a product at CES that uses T239, then it's possible that Nintendo Switch "2" isn't 1st half 2023, however with production of the chip already begun, if there is no announcement, that would mean that current production is for Drake, because these chips won't sit in a warehouse for 12 months or more, they will be timed to move into production of whatever product they go into within 6 months of production of the chip itself.
While you also could mention bombs being dropped for far longer in Syria and way more brutal since they cant defend themself:
This is a discussion topic about the Switch Pro/Successor, to react wild is just as usual as it was at ResetEra. Reacting in this way doesnt mean we became inhumane and are selfish and think only about luxury.
I really hope you are telling the truth and not trolling us. Not for anything but that would be just fucked up from your side.
Shadowrun
Cappy
Interesting turn of events.
In other news, I'm I reading this wrong or does this Falcom report (dated Dec. 23th 2022) lists an unannounced "Nintendo Switch 2" title, planned for 2023!?
This is a "Half-Life, 3 screenshots" situation. You read it as "titles for Nintendo Switch 2" but it is actually "2 titles for Nintendo Switch."
If a developer told John about the cancelled Switch "Pro" and their studio had the "Pro" devkits that were now obsolete, then they would surely know about Switch 2 with Drake that replaced them. Why wouldn't they mention that to John? I guess there's a chance that developer wasn't directly involved with developing for Nintendo platforms and only heard about the cancellation.
If Mochizuki really is treating the recent "Pro" model cancellation news as a confirmation that his "Pro system with new chip capable of 4K via DLSS" reporting from September 29th 2021 was accurate, then it's entirely possible this was always the device Nate heard about (4K, DLSS, devkits in 2020, late 22/early 23 launch) and he assumed it included T239 because of the feature and timing overlap (4K, DLSS and NVN2 was in the works since 2019)
If Mochizuki really is treating the recent "Pro" model cancellation news as a confirmation that his "Pro system with new chip capable of 4K via DLSS" reporting from September 29th 2021 was accurate, then it's entirely possible this was always the device Nate heard about (4K, DLSS, devkits in 2020, late 22/early 23 launch) and he assumed it included T239 because of the feature and timing overlap (4K, DLSS and NVN2 was in the works since 2019)
Silent
Rattata
At the end of the day, it's up to you whether or not you believe Nate. He doesn't owe anyone anything. I'm a bit surprised at how aggressively people are coming at him with demands to clarify his posts and accusations of clout chasing. When you're dealing with second or even third-hand sources, wires will get crossed. Things will get murky. For all we know, the distinction between a Switch Pro and Switch 2 could purely be semantics, or it could be two separate devices. And this simple misinterpretation can lead to wildly different conclusions. Personally, I think the new information is interesting in the same way all canceled devices are, but ultimately inconsequential. I consider trying to figure out what this "canceled Switch" is to be a fruitless endeavor. We still know Drake exists, and the important thing here for me is whether Drake comes out in 2023 or 2024.
I thought you said you knew from even before Bloomberg that it was always planned for H1 2023.
You have to be more clear and please start replying to users if somebody is asking you something about a commentary from you
thegodsend
Tektite
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- he/him
You've mentioned multiple times now that production already started. I don't think we have conclusive evidence and I'd be curious to understand why you think so?
I rather rope Nintendo waits a few more months to shrink it to 5mn and release a more powerful, future proof version based on this node in early 24. With Mario and Metroid and some 4k updates for Zelda and Smash.
thegodsend
Tektite
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- he/him
What sources do we have on a cancelled Mariko Pro? Also that one would have never been able to do 4k/DLSS, contradicting Nate's information, right?
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I think he's referring to the recent Linux commits. I don't think that's proof that large scale production has started but it is proof that the chip exists physically, so they have been produced in some quantity.
Unfortunately many of us asked hin already to link the source but right up to now nothing came.
@Z0m3le
Please share that info with us!
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Nikkei specifically said in 2019 or 2020 that a Mariko pro was planned but scrapped.
And yes, I have no idea how Nate's info fits in, I'm just referring to DF. They didn't mention anything about timeline when referring to the cancelled revision.
Nate's stuff is too confusing for me to speculate on right now so I'll wait till he clarifies.
If you have the article, could you pass it on?
Because it would fit with the information we know about the leaks along with what DF said.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I agree, its exactly this issue that makes me think 2023 is more likely, especially with Nintendo's increasing raw inventory volumes. I don't even think a drake equipped shield TV being revealed would derail 2023 either as its a pretty niche product and I'm an avid Shield TV fan. The market for a more powerful version is going to be very slim, it will be owners of 8k televisions, people running plex servers from their shield and those into emulation as that's where the increased power will be useful. I don't see Nvidia pushing out big enough volumes of the shield for it to even matter.
Not to dogpile, but Nate specifically said he heard some names being thrown around back in 2021 and never elaborated, that was just before the OLED was revealed. I don't understand how and why Nate jumped the gun especially since he still doesn't have any solid sources to back up his claims, otherwise he wouldn't have said that he's still chasing leads and giving us pushed back release dates.
I know Nate knows stuff, I can vouch for that having worked on Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope myself before it was revealed, and Nate did "theorize" the exact concept of the game weeks before it was revealed. He has software contacts, but I'm not sure he has any solid leads on hardware, especially Nintendo and the track record on OLED/Mariko doesn't fit either. Let's just wait.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
The 2019 Switch had production silicon dating back to at least September 2018*, and was presumably in testing for months before that (Mariko showed up in March 2018 firmware)
*Spawnwave's was date stamped for week 37 2018:
New Switch likely uses 16nm Tegra X1 T214 chip
Nintendo's new Switch revision might use a Tegra X1 T214 chip, but don't expect huge performance gains.
www.tweaktown.com
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Here's the original source of it but it's paywalled:
任天堂、もがく独創の王国 忍び寄る黒船 - 日本経済新聞
世界の家庭用ゲーム市場をゼロから切り開いてきた任天堂。ヒット作品の有無で業績が乱高下する「ばくち経営」からの脱皮や集団指導体制への移行を目指すが、行きすぎれば、日本を代表する独創企業のDNAを損う。「独創」と「安定」の間でもがく任天堂の悩みは深い。あっけない幕切れ2018年12月。大手部品メーカーのもとに任天堂からある通達が届いた。「QOL事業の開発を中止します」。あっけない幕切れだった。
www.nikkei.com
I can't find the summary I remember, which talked about an enhanced model being planned but scrapped. Unless my memory is very bad.
EDIT: Found one
New Nintendo Switch: Report Hints at Release Date for Cheaper Model
It might be here very soon.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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Not too confident that he has hardware contacts, probably just got info from software devs back in oct 2021 and hasn't been successful gaining anything else tangible. Not an issue but it is important that we don't go after the guy especially after all of his efforts. Lets just let him cook lol.
Kenka
Like Like
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You're putting the finger on yet another mystery. If there are studios that have been in possession of devkits for years, how come some haven't even received the smallest amount of information about them?
Well, the logical conclusion is either that Nintendo hasn't handed out devkits to everyone who asked for them (giving those who did an edge in terms of development, which is controversial) or the devkits given out years ago were not about Drake.
None of these two explanations are satsifying, but maybe the reality is less rosy than we think.
- Pronouns
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Any insider can choose whether they will reveal the information they have, yes. But that timing also has consequences for their reputation. Like, right now, Nate had to say something because apparently he had been sharing information that is not accurate for a while, it's not necessarily that he felt it was the time to give us that info. The way he's addressed this makes me think he's as clueless as we are about what happened, his past info was wrong rather than a case of "plans changed", and he is just saying things that don't add up instead of coming clear and saying "sorry guys, I don't know what happened, I must have gotten wrong info". He's answering questions talking about a revision planned for 2023 that has no evidence of having ever existed apart from Drake, and even talking about a supposed new hardware in early concept phase that sounds unrelated to any of this not to say an obvious safe guess (at any point in time any hardware manufacturer will have some kind of machine in concept phase).
I think the responsible thing would be to just answer questions about Drake/Nintendo's next hardware with a "I don't know" instead of muddling the waters even further with these tidbits that don't add up, because that looks like it's the case.
I'm not meaning to be disrespectful to anyone, I'm saying I have to draw a line of where I'm gonna start to question what someone is telling me if I have this many reasons to do so.
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Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
I just hope it’s called Nintendo Switch 2. Keep it straight to the point.
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I mean, this is EXACTLY how it works though for unannounced hardware. It's not at all controversial, it's extremely common practice. They're not going to hand out devkits to everyone who asks, not now and not even after it's announced. Partially because it's harder to keep it under wraps but also because they simply won't have that many to hand out.
I'm a bit puzzled why you think this is controversial.
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Thugstas
Bob-omb
NSN: Nintendo switch Next
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
Let's say this thing launches in 2023, either with Zelda or in Holidays with the new 3D Mario. It's a successor, not a mid gen refresh. Zelda (confirmed) and Mario too (very high chance) that it's also cross gen title for current Switch, it's given at this point. So, what would be the successor launch window exclusive game then? Mario Kart is 2024, that's for sure. I am not saying that they need exclusives to push the new system right away but like there has to be at least one game that's first party, exclusive to the new platform and is released just a few months after launch. I also still believe the 2023 launch makes the most sense, if they are launching this later than there would be even less software to launch this thing with. You also need to look at software side of things.
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My theory here is that Nate saw what DF said and took it to mean it aligned with what he recently has heard but has been unable to verify. The issue being, DF never specified any sort of timeline regarding this cancelled revision. They easily could be talking about the 2019 one.
Personally I think Nate should not have chimed in on this. In hindsight he'd probably agree. But like you said if he was sitting on some information that would negate some of the stuff he previously reported then I guess he'd be a bit anxious to get it out there.
As for the stuff he reported previously, nearly all of it has been backed up by the NVN2 hack. I don't think it's very reasonable to just assume it was all wrong. He even went against Bloomberg's reporting for a little while in 2021, which shows a certain level of confidence in his info.
Kenka
Like Like
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I mean, you are right. However, Bloomberg article from Mochizuki about the 11 developers in possession of Switch 4k devkits goes back to September 2021 and their article about a 4k-ready console goes back to August 2020.
Can it be that some developers had an almost three year headstart compared to others? It's a genuine question.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
NSN: Nintendo switch Next
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
I just hope we can move on from the confirmation of Eiyuden Chronicle's Switch port being interpreted as good news for Switch 2.
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Sure, again that's how development works for unannounced products. You give it to the most trusted partners that can ensure a certain level of security and anonymity, who will in turn support your product with high profile software.
They won't give it out to smaller indie teams until after it's revealed, or possibly after it launches.
What is a Falcom report?Interesting turn of events.
In other news, I'm I reading this wrong or does this Falcom report (dated Dec. 23th 2022) lists an unannounced "Nintendo Switch 2" title, planned for 2023!?
LoneRanger
Chain Chomp
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Now if next HW will be market as successor, I’m curious if we will get 2 SKUs per Switch titles, one for Switch 1, another one specific for Switch 2. Like PS4 and PS5.
Example: Zelda TOTK gets 2 versions, one for Switch 1, other for Switch 2.
IMO It would be more easy to consumers just to make 1 SKU like Xbox does…
BTW, I think this is all a marketing confusion, new SoC HW evolved and nintendo likely wants different marketing plans, instead of a new model for switch current line, a true successor with exclusives and such.
I wonder if some unannounced first party title that was originally Switch 1/2 is going to be only Switch 2, like for example next 3D Mario.
Example: Zelda TOTK gets 2 versions, one for Switch 1, other for Switch 2.
IMO It would be more easy to consumers just to make 1 SKU like Xbox does…
BTW, I think this is all a marketing confusion, new SoC HW evolved and nintendo likely wants different marketing plans, instead of a new model for switch current line, a true successor with exclusives and such.
I wonder if some unannounced first party title that was originally Switch 1/2 is going to be only Switch 2, like for example next 3D Mario.
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Falcom is a Japanese developer, this is a quarterly report.
Thugstas
Bob-omb
Zelda BOTW was a Wiiu port ..
TOTK is built from the ground up for switch.. so yes this is a good move ..
Ie: TP GC/ Wii /
BOTW WIIU / NSW
TOTK NSW/ NSW2
It's on the same engine as Breath of the Wild, so definitely not built from the ground up.
Thugstas
Bob-omb
Nope . Wiiu engine =/= switch engine …
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Oh no...... I just had the darkest thought imaginable enter my mind.
What if Drake itself was indeed cancelled and we are in the supermetaldave Timeline and he finally gets his AMD Powered Nintendo Box.
What if Drake itself was indeed cancelled and we are in the supermetaldave Timeline and he finally gets his AMD Powered Nintendo Box.
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I mean, technically speaking it's the same engine as Wind Waker for GameCube. Their internal engines evolve and are changed to suit the particular game, the game itself is built specifically for Switch unlike BOTW.
You never know with Nintendo, but I think the Xbox approach makes more sense.
This hardware/ software ecosystem is more of an iteration of what they already have than the brand new one they got for Switch. They are still using a Nvidia/ arm Tegra. NVN 2 is an iteration of NVN. I imagine this extends to the whole ecosystem, and how software will be sold.
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