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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
yohoopzcrazy
Cappy
Hm... that's a pretty good assumption to have, IMO. In their most recent Game Awards episode, Kit and Krysta spoke with Reggie for a bit, and later on they mention that they ran into Phil Spencer of all people lol
So I can definitely see, in some friendly late night conversations between some developers / higher-ups, something about the "Switch successor" sprouting up randomly, and someone oversharing / overhearing something about it. I just hope no one loses their job because of this...
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Woof! It got a little testy in here. A few things.
For folks who don't post often.
This thread can go in loops, especially when new folks come by. Thread regulars (like myself) can be guilty of responding to the fact that the loop has returned more than responding to the person who, in good faith, set off the loop again. Or even to a person who didn't set off the loop but simply stepped into the discussion.
The regulars know each other pretty well, and most of us come from techworld. We're used to pushing back on each other pretty heavily when we disagree, but not take it personally. I know to non-regulars that can be a lot, but we're honestly glad for anyone who wants to post in good faith. I hope you'll stick around
As for timeline, promises, leaks and a multi year wait:
This thread is for playing a game - "how right can we be about the hardware before it launches." It's half "Fantasy Console Manufacturer League", half "ARG Puzzle Solving, Except The Puzzles Are Real Life."
Yes, the internet has been speculating about a Switch followup for years now. But that's not been any sort of promise or belief that it was imminent. The first posts about a Switch followup came out... before the Switch did, wondering about whether this was the long term future of Nintendo, would there be a 4DS or whatever.
The thread regulars here have been speculating about the hardware of such a device for a long time too, and... pretty much got it right? But that wasn't based on Nintendo leaks or data, it was good technological guesses based on Nvidia's public roadmap.
So I get that it feels like we've been telling you this thing is coming for a while now. But honestly, we haven't. The broader, click-bait internet, or some individual posters, maybe. But the first real piece of hard data about this thing came in March of last year. Not yet two years.
The last hard piece of data? August of this year.
You are welcome to believe anything you want about the timing of the device, but if you base that belief on "there have been no recent leaks" expect some pushback, as it is both 1) not a perfect indicator of how soon hardware is coming and 2) not in anyway actually true
You are welcome to be as frustrated as you want to be that it isn't here but if you blame the thread, 1) we haven't promised you anything, nor are we responsible for the speculations of the rest of the internet, and 2) the NVN2 hack, the Orin release, the communication with Chinese forums, the Linux drivers, the NVidia documentation dumps - all of this is 9 months old.
The Wii U's first major leak was... the month it was announced at E3. The NX era of lots of chatter before the release was very unusual, mostly because the Wii U was a failure and the NX talk was a PR move. It takes a long time to make and launch a console. 9 months is nothing, and the number of leaks are unusually high.
For folks who don't post often.
This thread can go in loops, especially when new folks come by. Thread regulars (like myself) can be guilty of responding to the fact that the loop has returned more than responding to the person who, in good faith, set off the loop again. Or even to a person who didn't set off the loop but simply stepped into the discussion.
The regulars know each other pretty well, and most of us come from techworld. We're used to pushing back on each other pretty heavily when we disagree, but not take it personally. I know to non-regulars that can be a lot, but we're honestly glad for anyone who wants to post in good faith. I hope you'll stick around
As for timeline, promises, leaks and a multi year wait:
This thread is for playing a game - "how right can we be about the hardware before it launches." It's half "Fantasy Console Manufacturer League", half "ARG Puzzle Solving, Except The Puzzles Are Real Life."
Yes, the internet has been speculating about a Switch followup for years now. But that's not been any sort of promise or belief that it was imminent. The first posts about a Switch followup came out... before the Switch did, wondering about whether this was the long term future of Nintendo, would there be a 4DS or whatever.
The thread regulars here have been speculating about the hardware of such a device for a long time too, and... pretty much got it right? But that wasn't based on Nintendo leaks or data, it was good technological guesses based on Nvidia's public roadmap.
So I get that it feels like we've been telling you this thing is coming for a while now. But honestly, we haven't. The broader, click-bait internet, or some individual posters, maybe. But the first real piece of hard data about this thing came in March of last year. Not yet two years.
The last hard piece of data? August of this year.
You are welcome to believe anything you want about the timing of the device, but if you base that belief on "there have been no recent leaks" expect some pushback, as it is both 1) not a perfect indicator of how soon hardware is coming and 2) not in anyway actually true
You are welcome to be as frustrated as you want to be that it isn't here but if you blame the thread, 1) we haven't promised you anything, nor are we responsible for the speculations of the rest of the internet, and 2) the NVN2 hack, the Orin release, the communication with Chinese forums, the Linux drivers, the NVidia documentation dumps - all of this is 9 months old.
The Wii U's first major leak was... the month it was announced at E3. The NX era of lots of chatter before the release was very unusual, mostly because the Wii U was a failure and the NX talk was a PR move. It takes a long time to make and launch a console. 9 months is nothing, and the number of leaks are unusually high.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Nintendo won't design their own CPU core, those are super hard. But if they're buying chips from Nvidia, and Nvidia moves to RISC-V, then that's a different story.
In person E3 used to generate a lot of quality rumor content, but TGAs are a different animal. E3 was a tech oriented industry event not open to the public, with 70,000 attendees, stuck in the same building, wandering from exhibit to exhibit. TGA probably creates opportunities for backroom meetings because lots of people are in the same place at the same time, but I don't think it creates the sort of opportunities for stuff to trickle out.
Yea, but Nintendo is not married to Nvidia. A very big incentive to stick with them, is keeping compatibility. If Nvidia can’t provide that on RISC-5, Nintendo might go elsewhere.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
The Bloomberg report from last September was authored by Mochizuki and Olga Kharif, who also previously wrote about Zynga. So I think she may be the source for Zynga having a Drake devkit. I don't see much room for conflation, as there are sources from 11 different companies saying they have devkits. As far as I know the OLED devkit has 2GB more of RAM, nothing about any 4K output.
The hope that a Switch model with 4K capability or any other meaningful hardware upgrade is launching next year is very disputable if I may tell you this. I don’t know Nate but there is a reason he‘s saying that his information from 2021 was correct at that time. I would recommend this forum to keep expectations for the next year or two in check.
Didn’t want to say anything, but I always thought that clarification was way more suspicious than the word “heavy”.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Like I get why some are upset about this post (and a previous one) being unwelcoming, but really I can’t help but feel the same way when people come in and say “nah probably 2024.” It continues to have no footing.
I can accept that nothing may release by June, but speculation on that is premature and more apt to be positioned as “what went wrong / what might have changed” based on the many leaks and reports from the last 12-24 months.
Hosermess
Koopa
Hosermess
Koopa
On the other hand, I had the same thought. Which was what I meant by this post:
He replied saying he was giving the same answer he always did. Which I guess is technically true, but it just felt different. Not what he said, but how he said it lol which, yes, is definitely silly.
OP
OP
There's also GPU backwards compatibility, which can be very difficult to tackle, especially if there are games that take advantage of Nvidia specific features.
Yea, but that’s kind of worthless if you don’t have cpu compatibility.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Let's not try to spin any narrative that doesn't exist. He's also said this shortly after - emphasis mine:
The statement was not meant to create doubt in next year. It was meant to clarify that he's not reporting anything new, and therefore nothing he's saying should be taken as news.
I and leaning towards the H2 2023 as well,
if the Nuswitch was coming out in march 2023...Nintendo would had done a full reveal in october for the NuSwitch...but that would hurt the current switch holiday sales.
If they did a full announcement in January of 2023...what 1st/3rd party game would be ready to release that early in 2023? Outside of the few games Nintendo themselves announced?
Would make more sense to announce things in January and release the NuSwitch in May/June 2023 or Holiday season 2023.
I can see any criticism about the arrogance or unwelcoming behavior of a couple will be treated with bad faith so that's the last I'll say on that.
All I'm saying is that a couple of you need to learn how to better respond(or just not say anything at all) to legitimate skepticism or you're going to get the same energy later on that you display now. And I don't think that benefits anyone.
All I'm saying is that a couple of you need to learn how to better respond(or just not say anything at all) to legitimate skepticism or you're going to get the same energy later on that you display now. And I don't think that benefits anyone.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
May is H1, and it's what most of us (I believe) currently expect.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
The reason is that Nate feels 100% confident about his information at the time, and whatever new information he might have, he doesn't have enough sources to confirm it. If Nate had new, journalistically confirmable info, he'd publish it. Why wouldn't he?
When the NVN2 leak confirmed basically everything Nate had reported, did he do a podcast on it? No. Why? On March 6th
Later, he talked about a possible podcast on the leak but only if he had new info. April 2
Sounds kinda similar to everything he's said since. Has Nate heard anything since? Yeah. In April. April 17
"I've heard more info, possibly related to production, but I can't confirm it, and I refuse to talk about it unless I'm 100% on everything because I don't want the drama, or undermine my journalistic standards for reactionary news. I stand by my previous reporting. Nothing I am saying is a hint."
This has been Nate's line since March. Every attempt by Nate to speak honestly and clearly gets hyperparsed into oblivion. Here is Nate saying the same thing in April...
In May...
In June...
In June again...
And here he is in December, saying that what he's saying now is exactly the same as what he was saying then...
And that there are no hints in his replied...
And that whatever he's tracking down is currently unconfirmed, and likely related to what he was hunting down before, and not radical new info...
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nintendo has demonstrated their ability to announce and release a new game in a very short window - two months has happened a few times. Admittedly it’s starting to feel like a stretch for there to be something massive at launch, but it’s not impossible.
However, I don’t think a new system needs something as massive as BotW / TotK to be there on launch day. I’ve said this before, but it’s probably more important for there to be adequate supply of the console available for a launch as big as TotK. For launch day itself, maybe we’ll see the Metroid Prime remake, or something that’s not been rumored at all.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I agree with this. Plus if Drake releases before Zelda, that means when Zelda finally does release they have room to release a limited edition gold-trimmed Drake with it.
I'm not just saying this because I really want a gold-trimmed Super Switch to go with my Triforce-themed DS and 3DS, I swear
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Switch 2 in launches March 2023. Switch OLED Tears of the Kingdom Edition launches May 2023.
Enjoy!
Heron
Koopa
I think that when it comes to leaks one of the biggest fears is stepping on the Christmas sales - as if you break NDA then one of the legal recourses could be damages - damages which could be proven by showing large media coverage of a leak of a new switch followed by an immediate divergance of sales from the previously observed sales pattern. Damages aside, you'd severely harm your business relationship with Nintendo - far more than a leak in sleepy mid-January. So a holiday shopping season leak is basically the one thing you can't afford.
Once companies are back up and running post-Christmas break in the new year then you'd have to expect leaks within the next month and a half if this thing is coming in May. If we haven't heard anything at all by the second week of February I'll be thinking holiday 2023.
And I'll be upset, as I had thought for years that March 2023 made sense. Now, May is fine. Might as well be the same. But I have no interest in another year of base Switch, or playing TotK on it. I'm still holding out on Horizon and God of War until I get a Ps5, I don't want to have to hold out on Zelda too.
Once companies are back up and running post-Christmas break in the new year then you'd have to expect leaks within the next month and a half if this thing is coming in May. If we haven't heard anything at all by the second week of February I'll be thinking holiday 2023.
And I'll be upset, as I had thought for years that March 2023 made sense. Now, May is fine. Might as well be the same. But I have no interest in another year of base Switch, or playing TotK on it. I'm still holding out on Horizon and God of War until I get a Ps5, I don't want to have to hold out on Zelda too.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah I feel like a lot of people who believe we should be hearing leaks right now don't quite get this. You never hear much in the way of leaks from the tech industry as a whole in November and December.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
hard same. tactics ogre has been a great, suitable experience tho :]
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ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
It's fine to have skepticism, but nah, it's always the same uninformed and low effort drive-by post, "It's not happening next year... keep your expectations in check..." It's like they didn't read the first post summary, or thread marks for the actual evidence before posting. There's clear evidence that it's in production, as well as actual hardware leaks from a breach and other things posted online by hardware/software developers for Drake (T239, 12 SM, 128 bit buswidth, 8 core A78 CPU)
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Codename_Steam
Cappy
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Does Drake only have a 128 bit bus?
Hosermess
Koopa
This is what I was thought about doing but didn't, instead I made a quick dumb Seinfeld meme that kids these days with their Nanites and SSDs probably don't even get.
But still, there's definitely a lot of over-reading and cherry-picking going on...and here's some more:
May 11: "Right now I remain operating on the info provided last October"
June 30: "Until I give an update, the info from October remains accurate"
Dec 3: "The information shared in Oct 2021 was accurate when relayed to me in 2021"
That's....slightly different. To me anyway.
- Pronouns
- he / him
If we take not hearing much about dev kits recently to mean they just aren't out there, expecting a machine in 2024 starts to become pretty pie-in-the-sky hopeful.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Either that or Drake is secretly Sonic
kvetcha
hoopy frood
- Pronouns
- he/him
Nate Drake: Nintendo is buying Sega.
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
He isn't a source, and one would do well not to hang on his every word or treat it as gospel. We do, however, have information from the horse's mouth, which exceeded "consensus" expectations. Some of us are tired of being told to Woo-hah and keep our expectations in check. Please, don't be that person.
Dekuman
Kremling
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Hope you can give us something soon. We are dying for info!
TheGreatMightyPoo
Like Like
Soon™
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
Though I'm more inclined to believe in 2024, H2 2023 is also a possibility in my opinion, alongside a new Mario. Anything before that seems a bit too early for me.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Bluntly there's more to indicate an early to mid 2023 launch than there is a late 2023 or 2024 launch.
If they have the materials, and it seems they do, and development partners are ready, and it seems they are, they have 0 reason to hold it back.
If they have the materials, and it seems they do, and development partners are ready, and it seems they are, they have 0 reason to hold it back.
- Pronouns
- He/him
Team January reveal
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I hope there isn't a delay due to lousy Smarch weather.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Would be perfect for all the Game Awards reveals still fresh in people's minds. Armored Core 6 and Jedi Survivor for Drake please.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
eye0h
"it is known"
- Pronouns
- He/Him
hmmmm "confirmation" so it's confirmed.
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