• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
I’m still on Team Spring 2023:

1. Both Nvidia and Nintendo have been working on T239 since 2019.
2. Bloomberg in September 2021 told us that 11 developers were already working on 4K Switch games for New Hardware for Late 2022/Early 2023
3. Bloomberg in September 2020 told us that Nintendo was telling developers of a 4K Switch
4. Kopite leaks T239 for Nintendo
5. The illegal Nvidia leak showing T239 is for Nintendo and a new API for T239. (NVN2 with DLSS support)
6. Factory Leaks

I've got a hard time believing that Nintendo would RAD a custom SoC, create a new development API and send out development kits. Only to cancel it last minute?

My second point is the avarage life span of Nintendo Consoles is around 5-6 years.
Nintendo DS - Nintendo 3DS (November 2004 - February 2011)
Nintendo Wii - Nintendo Wii U (November 2006 - November 2012)
Nintendo 3DS - Nintendo Switch (February 2011 - March 2017)


My third point is Nintendo likes to launch new handheld consoles every 2 years
GBA - 2001 New 3DS 2014/2015
GBA - 2003 New 2DS XL 2017
DS - 2004/5 Switch - 20177
DS Lite - 2006 Switch Lite and V2 - 2019
DSi - 2008/9 Switch OLED - 2021
DSi XL - 2009/2010
3DS - 2011
3DS XL 2012
2DS - 2013

Considering all the points above, everything is pointing to a Spring 2023 launch window for Drake.
Could’ve Nintendo canned Drake?
Maybe but very unlikely, Nintendo has cancelled hardware in the past (Tegra 3DS and Nintendo INDY) but I find it highly unlikely.
Could Drake be coming out in 2024?
Unlikely, why would Nintendo send out dev kits in 2020 for something launching in 2024?
 
NateDrake said:
Firstly; all of what I had reported was corroborated by Bloomberg reports & the Nvidia NVN2 leaks would further back the information.

My final post in this thread for the year: Do people think I'm joyful that the information reported back in October '21 is no longer accurate? I talk with contacts (developers, publishers, supply chain contacts, etc) and get the best information I can from them. For the past few months, I've been having conversations with them and chasing down leads. Looking for confirmation on plans/timing/etc... The posts implying that I should share anything the moment I hear of it but then chastises for sharing info that could potentially become inaccurate -- due to the changes or misunderstanding.

On the matter of 'Drake' and what hardware that is specifically designed for (and this is my personal speculation): could Drake have been the intended revision at one point? Maybe. Could it now be the base of the next-gen hardware? Perhaps. Select features of Drake match those of the kits I had heard about -- which would then be further backed and reported by Bloomberg's own reporting.
Click to expand...
Just to clarify one last time (I know you said you're done posting here so if you don't respond that's fine):

You're saying that the particular device that was targeting late 22/early 23 that was using DLSS and RT (and likely but not confirmed to be Drake) has been shelved (i.e. cancelled or delayed)?
 
Bosintang said:
I'm pretty sure that at no point, they started sending literal development kits to 10+ third party partners, making them work for 2+ years on porting their most valuable games, and then casually mailing them to announce that they decided to cancel the machine. And if they did send kits, cancelling the machine after possibly >1000 people had been working on porting games would be a literal suicide, even by Nintendo's standards.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there’s no way this happened.
 
Soralink91 said:
Yup Nintendo will have to start building up exclusive software for the Next hardware if this is a traditional transition. Lets just hope the final year of Switch is better than Gamecube(2006), Wii(2012), and Wii U's (2016).
Click to expand...
I mean there's likely a reason we haven't seen a new 3D/2D Mario, and Mario Kart is getting years late mobile port DLC on Switch tbh
 
0
Dizzle said:
Because like all "debate me" life hacks, it's mostly a tool to feel smart. And if two people both try to razor eachother, you just get a really boring debate about what "simple" means that goes in circles.
Click to expand...
Well...yeah. Its a nice tool to look at something while thinking about it and evaluating it, but online discourse kinda took all those and all falacies and made a bloodsport out of reasoning instead of using them to explore viewpoints.
 
0
Bosintang said:
In both cases, it shows that while the revered "insiders" can get minor things right, such as the date of a direct a few weeks ahead, or the occasional new game, making predictions about big stuff like hardware, years in advance, should not in my opinion be treated as anything else than educated guessing.
Click to expand...
agreed.
 
Literally, we were talking about this exact scenario in May as a way to explain how the damn Drake was so big

oldpuck said:
it’s not inconceivable that a non-Drake revision exists and hasn’t leaked.

Consider this (hypothetical) situation:

1) Nintendo is working on a revision that adds DLSS to the Switch. It’s a custom chip that adds tensor cores to the X1, plus a clock bump. This is the Switch Pro

2) At the same time Nintendo is working on a Switch 2, DLSS, a huge upgrade in power, but not fully backwards compatible.

3) Game devs get Switch Pro dev kits and leak “4K switch with DLSS” to some folks in the press

4) Outside game-world, Nvidia folks start leaking Switch 2 development.

5) The community expects a DLSS revision, Lapsu$ hack shows DLSS hardware, thus conflating the Switch Pro with the Switch 2
Click to expand...
I'm sorry for folks who feel deeply let down. I'm sorry for folks who feel mislead, especially since I think some of them felt mislead by me (and I know some of my posts have been used for hoax leaks in the past).

I have spent the majority of my time in this thread trying to keep expectations in check and open to alternate possibilities, while keeping the thread data oriented. I think a lot of ya'll are smart and great, and I still enjoy playing the tech analysis game with ya'll. But this pile on is... a lot. Hopefully the temperature comes down.
 
YolkFolk said:
It was obvious.

I said at the time my spider-sense was tingling and it never fails to let me down.
Click to expand...
I was already sort of suspicious of the endless "waiting for confirmation" this year

what a shame

I'm very glad that this broke before the new year, now I can go into 2023 making a concerted effort to stop wasting my time reading and writing about nintendo crap all day
 
The discourse in the last few pages are hard to watch. Knowing how secretive Nintendo is, there probably are very few people outside of their HQ have the full picture; it doesn't seem unusual for different sources to provide differing information. I hope that we may continue the thread using less emotionally charged languages. (And I'm just gonna ignore the drive-bys.)

To reconcile what we've learned from the Nvidia leaks, prior Bloomberg/Nikkei reports, recent DF John and Nate comments, and unverified Chinese/Korean forum rumors, it's not unthinkable that Nintendo might have been planning to release Drake (next-gen) and a refreshed standard model (mid-gen) simultaneously in 2023. The latter could simply be running off an overclocked Mariko that supports higher performance profiles. Doing so would've reduced the performance gap between Drake and standard model, making the close-gen transition smoother and extending the standard model's product lifespan. But for whatever reasons (performance, cost, marketing, etc.) the refreshed model was canned. The Drake model is unaffected, and might still be released in 2023.

Just trying to fit all the pieces together, I don't know how much sense this actually makes. Of course, it's quite possible that some of the aforementioned info was incorrect, made-up, or outdated.
 
oldpuck said:
Literally, we were talking about this exact scenario in May as a way to explain how the damn Drake was so big


I'm sorry for folks who feel deeply let down. I'm sorry for folks who feel mislead, especially since I think some of them felt mislead by me (and I know some of my posts have been used for hoax leaks in the past).

I have spent the majority of my time in this thread trying to keep expectations in check and open to alternate possibilities, while keeping the thread data oriented. I think a lot of ya'll are smart and great, and I still enjoy playing the tech analysis game with ya'll. But this pile on is... a lot. Hopefully the temperature comes down.
Click to expand...
I'm confused again, what conclusion are you drawing from all of this?
 
Teal'c said:
Honestly, I am not sure I understand the current hypothesis.
What until a few weeks ago could have been released during H1 2023 is now being branded as a cancelled (as well as unknown) model?

Kind of like how the Oled model was mistaken for Drake/Dane/4K?

So now

H1 2023 🚫
H2 2023 🚫
H1-H2 2024 👀?
Click to expand...

That "a few weeks ago" was being based on info reported many, many, many months ago.
 
If Drake was cancelled last month or so (which I doubt as it was in active development until recently at least) we'd be seeing the Switch 2 until 2025+ at least, as they'd have to design a whole new SoC for a whole new architecture that isn't Lovelace, it'd be part of the family of that arch SoCs much like Drake was of Orin. We could be seeing a release in 2026 or 2027.
 
oldpuck said:
Literally, we were talking about this exact scenario in May as a way to explain how the damn Drake was so big
Click to expand...
Nate's info is that a mid-gen revision planned for a 2023 release was shelved. It's .... weird to me that if a TX1 + DLSS revision existed, it would have been planned for 2023. After no TX1+ Pro in 2019 and 2021, I would have expected Nintendo to just release nothing in this timeframe until Switch 2 proper is out.

I should clarify - not impossible, just weird.
 
0
TonyBaduy said:
If Drake was cancelled last month or so (which I doubt as it was in active development until recently at least) we'd be seeing the Switch 2 until 2025+ at least, as they'd have to design a whole new SoC for a whole new architecture that isn't Lovelace, it'd be part of the family of that arch SoCs much like Drake was of Orin. We could be seeing a release in 2026 or 2027.
Click to expand...
Nobody is claiming Drake was cancelled.
 
oldpuck said:
Literally, we were talking about this exact scenario in May as a way to explain how the damn Drake was so big


I'm sorry for folks who feel deeply let down. I'm sorry for folks who feel mislead, especially since I think some of them felt mislead by me (and I know some of my posts have been used for hoax leaks in the past).

I have spent the majority of my time in this thread trying to keep expectations in check and open to alternate possibilities, while keeping the thread data oriented. I think a lot of ya'll are smart and great, and I still enjoy playing the tech analysis game with ya'll. But this pile on is... a lot. Hopefully the temperature comes down.
Click to expand...

I don't feel mislead by you, I appreciate the fact that you took your time to explain things for all of us to understand. You tapered our expectations and you have been as transparent as possible. Thank you for your hard work.
 
LukasManak22 said:
So it really seems like 2024 launch with new Mario Kart lol. This is the exclusive you want to launch system with, basically the money printer of them all.

I just hope that this does not mean that new titles from EPD Tokyo are next-gen exclusives then.
Click to expand...
prime 4
 
0
Raccoon said:
I was already sort of suspicious of the endless "waiting for confirmation" this year

what a shame

I'm very glad that this broke before the new year, now I can go into 2023 making a concerted effort to stop wasting my time reading and writing about nintendo crap all day
Click to expand...

I didn’t buy RE Village so I could play it on Drake - a seemingly inevitable port. I didn’t buy Bayonetta 3 because I thought it would quickly get a Drake update. I held off on a PS5 to save my money for Drake. All my fault and no one else’s I should add.
 
Obviously a 4K Switch was in the cards and then shelved at some point, I don't see how this (clearly plausible) information affects the other information that we have (Nvidia leaks, factory leaks etc.) I think a Switch Succ in 2023 Is not a lock but still quite possible, given the information that we have .
 
Raccoon said:
I'm no natedrake fanboy but he doesn't owe anyone shit lmao

he can retract whatever he wants imo
Click to expand...

He's a content creator who gets financial support for his content. As pointed out in this thread, some people literally paid to ask him questions, which is bonkers to me though people are free to spend their hard earned money however they want. He at least owes them to be fair play, which I think he isn't in this case.
 
Bosintang said:
He's a content creator who gets financial support for his content. As pointed out in this thread, some people literally paid to ask him questions, which is bonkers to me though people are free to spend their hard earned money however they want. He at least owes them to be fair play, which I think he isn't in this case.
Click to expand...
You can find the posts in the thread still. I edited them because the posts aren't being taken as intended. They aren't posts of informational worth. I left those untouched.
 
Hosermess said:
That "a few weeks ago" was being based on info reported many, many, many months ago.
Click to expand...
True and it seemed (at least to me) a confirmation that everything was 'going as planned'.

Not that it changes much for me. Yes, a new model would please me next year, as a technology lover, but at the same time I have a backlog that can last (without exaggeration) until 2026.
 
0
jumpforce said:
The hope that a Switch model with 4K capability or any other meaningful hardware upgrade is launching next year is very disputable if I may tell you this. I don’t know Nate but there is a reason he‘s saying that his information from 2021 was correct at that time. I would recommend this forum to keep expectations for the next year or two in check.
Click to expand...
This is what I was saying. My sources told me no 4K model until next generation which will be late 2024 at the earliest. Another revision exists but it won’t be a meaningful upgrade. Thanks for all the negative messages towards me a la “don’t do these drive-by posts saying it won’t come”. It won’t come.
 
aaanyway, I'll get out of your hair now everybody

glad this story broke when it did, a few weeks later and I would've been much more upset

have fun, don't kill each other, Pikmin 4 is real
 
Hidden04 said:
The factory worker said a new switch model was beginning production in January, and I still believe in that info. We won't have to wait long to see if that information is accurate.
Click to expand...
I was saying to expect news between late December and mid January based on past Mochizuki leaks...it might still hold true.
 
0
So, since this is very confusing, posting my understanding...

  • Way back in 2019 or 2020, Nintendo is planning mid-gen refresh using a chip or other features we don't know about.
  • They are also planning an entirely new generation at the same time. (Drake)
  • Due to Covid, both get pushed back, probably multiple times. But they still believe they can get the mid-gen out 18 months before Drake (to make it worthwhile).
  • They ultimately pivot the timeline to the mid-gen refresh being late 2022 or early 2023, and Drake being 2024.
  • Due to parts shortages and the sales strength of Switch, they realize they just don't need the refresh (or can't actually get it out in time due to logistical issues) and cancel it straight up.
  • Drake is now almost certainly coming in 2024 at the earliest.

This means the original dev kits we heard about were for this previously unknown mid-gen refresh. Drake may well have been originally planned for late 2022 or early 2023 and everything has just been pushed back and back due to frankly unprecedented sales preformance of an old-gen machine plus super difficult logistical problems.

It's just very frustrating that no insiders were able to tell us that there were two machines in play.

The very most optimistic interpretation of all this is that the mid-gen is cancelled because Drake is still set for holiday 2023 and they can't release two new Switches in one year. Basically, that the mid-gen refresh was more delayed by the pandemic than Drake, which given the timelines does actually make sense.

EDIT:
The other interpretation is that there has only ever been one device (Drake) and it has been delayed and marketing has shifted it as a product from a lower-clocked mid-gen refresh to a new, higher price, next-gen branded machine.
 
The good thing is we won't have long to know if 2023 is the year or not. If Nintendo doesn't show it off in the next Nintendo Direct in February, it's not coming in 2023. No chance they release Zelda TotK in May and then release new hardware a few 4-6 months later. Honestly, when you look at the specs of Drake, it seems to need a much better process than 8nm to fit the size and power draw limits of the Switch. Releasing in 2024 would benefit from reduced 4N manufacturing cost. I want Switch 2 in 2023 with Zelda TotK, but if it ends up being 2024, the specs would still be pretty awesome.
 
I imagine Nate will drop a podcast in early January to further address the information we learned today. It's still the holidays with New Years coming up so I'm sure he will be busy with family and such like a lot of us are. I'll wait and see what he has to say when he addresses this stuff in a future podcast.

In my own head space, I'm telling myself that Nintendo is likely targeting 2024 with a Switch 2 release and are still working to have some big titles prepared by then. With a next gen console comes bigger and better looking games which means longer development times and I honestly think that is why Switch has been missing any really big heavy hitters in recent years as the focus has become Switch 2. I'm hoping they will have a solid lineup by 2024. I just think there is a lot of moving parts here and I "think" that is why this is taking so long. Just my speculation of course.
 
Ojoloco said:
no source talks about Drake not being able to come out in 2023, so until further notice that option remains on the table.
Click to expand...
i know, i'm saying i don't think this new rumor from DF changes anything, for all we know it could have been canned a while ago. i'm saying there's no reason to go into panic mode about the actual successor.
 
NateDrake said:
You can find the posts in the thread still. I edited them because the posts aren't being taken as intended. They aren't posts of informational worth. I left those untouched.
Click to expand...
Despite the fact that this supposed model that is not Drake is cancelled, I am curious to know what games were being worked on for said model.

Even so, Drake's specs implied that it was something beyond a revision, I suppose that halfway through the process what was going to be a simple pro revision, has become a lot better and a successor.
 
Last edited:
With this post I want to tell all insiders (verified or not) and all those who have shared opinions, findings, ideas and possible technical specifications (based on leaks and rumours), that I do not feel cheated by them in any way.
 
As someone who has lived in a reality for like a year now that "Switch Pro" and "Next-Gen Switch" is basically the same thing at this point, learning that an actual Switch Pro was still on the table as late as 2023 is a bit too much to take in.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom