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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Pokemaniac said:
Talk of a cancelled revision would have made sense back in 2019-2020, when Nintendo had just put out new hardware that could have been used that way, but didn't. It doesn't make a lot of sense in late 2022, when all the information coming out of Nvidia for nearly a year has fairly unambiguously been about Drake, with no solid indication of any other chip that could provide a more modern featureset for Nintendo. Especially when Drake is seeming pretty done at this point with no clear non-Nintendo project lined up for it aside from a highly hypothetical new Shield.

Something isn't adding up here.
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I think they planned another internals change in between the 2019 one and Drake that never saw production and thus never leaked from nVidia.
 
iNess said:
How good will it be that Ethics came with Christmas?

Until now Nintendo has kept something called STANDARD, thus maintaining the capabilities of its system, even though there are two versions of its SoC.

This STANDARD has allowed developers to reach a wider audience. By creating a new Standard, migration will be promoted, Nintendo is not only power in its processor, the main thing is its controller and the Audio and Video broadcast medium.

Many have no idea what Nintendo is next for, but if there are any signs of delivering new gameplay for Tears of the Kingdom with a new controller, as I said before at least one new controller should be coming soon.

In previous years we have had Nintendo Switch Lite/Oled and other peripherals accompanied by games like Nintendo Labo, Pokémon Let Go, Ring Fit, Mario Kart Live, but this 2022 nothing, Is it the calm before the storm?
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Sorry OldPuck but this has dethroned your message the other week for my favourite on the site.

Words so profound, so moving, I literally cried. I wailed. I howled. But entirely cromulent, like, yes, there could be a new controller soon! We definitely think there's new hardware! And yes, it would come with a new "standard" to develop for. That's going to have interesting implications!

But I just have to wonder; how good WILL it be that Ethics came with Christmas?
 
Concernt said:
I'm fairly confident "2 early" meant 2 things. It was too early for an announcement at that time, but that Switch 2 would come out earlier than expected (2023). Feel free to roast me.
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I always found the latter to be a bit of a stretch but it would be a neat outcome.

But sure, let’s go with: Nintendo intended to release a ‘refresh’ using Drake, but it stopped making sense. Whatever that even means. Perhaps that’s the real reason behind Nintendo’s rejection of Bloomberg’s claim of supplying 4K Switch dev kits; As early as late 2021 Nintendo were already course correcting. It’s now a very clear “successor” and launching later, which we hope is still 2023.

I’ll keep the above as my headcanon until we get more official reporting. The news of playing Tears on current Switch is too much of a downer for me.
 
Like, wasn't it also a little odd that no one commented on the MASSIVE Nvidia leak hacked info when everyone and their mom was combing through and discussing the Capcom hacks? Or how about the big implications of the linux updates? Every other Mochizuki or Nikkei article was discussed quickly and soon after...but not hard data?

How about the fact that Emily "leaked" the Pro announcement being "imminent" mere hours before Bloomberg "imminent" article with nearly all of the same wording down to: could be revealed before or after E3 2021, devs want to show off games, sep/oct timing. And that it was relayed through Nate's account? And how soon after she said she was done with hardware leaks? It almost feels like she or someone she knew had a subscription to Bloomberg Terminal and was able to, I assume, access the article early. And then when the info turned out to be for the OLED her source unsubbed from Terminal or stopped relaying early article info, that that was the end of HW coverage, when she had barely covered HW before release, if at all. Unless she works at Bloomberg or knows someone who does?

Isn't also weird timing that in the same time that Mochizuki hasn't provided updates, so too have updates from others?

My bigger point is this: Could the reason that no one discussed the big actual leaks and updates from Nvidia be the fact that the info was so different from what they seemingly knew about at the time? Like, "NVN2? 12 SMs? Nope I haven't heard anything about that kind of hardware. 8 A78Cs? Doesn't ring a bell. Linux updates on T239 implying real hardware is finalized? Nah, it's not 100$ explicitly related to Nintendo so it's not related."

Well, if A78Cs and 12 SMs and a production potentially starting in the next few months clashes with rumors that there was/is an older canned "Pro" model, wouldn't you dismiss it? I mean, DF have done full produced videos and articles on much less; not the best sourced rumors, the Tegra X1 powering the Switch, etc. I mean, how do you do a video back in July 2016 on "hmm the Switch is delayed, so it could be Pascal X2", but not hard, data on NVN2, 12 SMs, an 8 core system? How is it not enough to entertain a video or an article? This device that so many are clamoring for and asking for, but no speculation on specs?

I do absolutely trust Nate, Emily, DF, and many others and they have gotten many things right in the past. But the vagueness the past 1-2 years combined with the clarity of the Nvidia leaks/updates have almost made things clearer. Unless T239 Drake is explicitly confirmed to be canceled or delayed past H1 2023. Because even John only says "I think" "at one point" "internally planned" "mid generation update" "seems to be no longer happening" "I don't think it's gonna be 2023". Not confident or explicit and is sourced from devs hearing of potential internal plans? The bigger thing is that he doesn't imply or even outright say that dev kits were sent out for this canceled HW NOR was there a recalling of dev kits.

We still, to this day, are only aware of one, main (in which I mean T239) unit for dev kits being sent out. Since then we've heard of updated dev kits and the intentions of working with RT relative to battery life. Why would you be concerned about RT battery life on hardware in early 2022 SO MUCH to the point that you straight up cancel the HW? I don't think the ideas I've heard of Drake being "delayed" out of H1 2023 are clear. Thus, I'm falling back on ol' reliable: the hack and linux updates.
 
karmitt said:
I always found the latter to be a bit of a stretch but it would be a neat outcome.

But sure, let’s go with: Nintendo intended to release a ‘refresh’ using Drake, but it stopped making sense. Whatever that even means. Perhaps that’s the real reason behind Nintendo’s rejection of Bloomberg’s claim of supplying 4K Switch dev kits; As early as late 2021 Nintendo were already course correcting. It’s now a very clear “successor” and launching later, which we hope is still 2023.

I’ll keep the above as my headcanon until we get more official reporting. The news of playing Tears on current Switch is too much of a downer for me.
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With both Linux and Switch OS getting updates based on this new chip over the last few months, given what I know about development, that means the chip is in fabrication. It's ready to do the final part of pre-release software development, running it on the actual silicon. Why would Nvidia and Nintendo sit on billions worth of working chips for upwards of a year? Because that's what seems would have to happen for 2024 to make sense. I just can't see those drivers being made before they can get hands on with the chip.
 
Concernt said:
Nothing, apparently. Just a bit of hot air. Like me after Christmas dinner.

Though some have claimed that the device it powers goes into full scale production next month.
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I thought the drake was canceled I was scared, but everything is fine suddenly, I saw a lot of clickbait title saying "Switch pro canceled OMG"
 
The thing with the idea of them dropping Drake is they would be dropping at what would be pretty much the most powerful chip available right now for a newer chip that is even more powerful? That doesn't make any sense. Unless there was a Baby Drake at somepoint that maybe was 4-8SM etc. and Nintendo said screw it throw it out and give us a 12SM chip etc,
 
Pacobob said:
Hello! What happened with the drake??
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From what I can gather, the Drake appears to be Switch 2 and not Switch Pro, and it probably isn't coming next year. There was also a planned revision that wasn't the Drake, but that got cancelled (that would explain the mix up with the Switch OLED rumors).
 
Pacobob said:
I thought the drake was canceled I was scared, but everything is fine suddenly, I saw a lot of clickbait title saying "Switch pro canceled OMG"
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It's just that. Clickbait. Maybe it WAS cancelled. Maybe it wasn't. Drake hasn't been. Nvidia has made drivers for it already, you wouldn't tend to make drivers for a cancelled chip, since you need the chip to begin with to make them. It's extraordinarily difficult and wasteful to cancel a product you've already made.
 
Magic-Man said:
From what I can gather, the Drake appears to be Switch 2 and not Switch Pro, and it probably isn't coming next year. There was also a planned revision that wasn't the Drake, but that got cancelled (that would explain the mix up with the Switch OLED rumors).
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Nothing concrete to suggest it isn't coming next year. While some other leaks, and indeed public information, imply it's coming sooner than later.
 
YolkFolk said:
Updated my post, but yeah, 2023 makes the most sense for a new console from a game scheduling point of view. Like I said, if Nintendo release another round of big hitters on OG Switch, the next entries will be 3-5 years off. You just hope that if there is no new console next year, that the final years of Switch aren’t like the wastelands of Gamecube, Wii and Wii U, where they were left to die from a software standpoint while we all waited for the successor.
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I still don't believe that big Switch hitters imped on Drakes launch. it just gives an excuse for people wanting more power to spend more money. switch owners will enjoy the games all the same
 
Magic-Man said:
From what I can gather, the Drake appears to be Switch 2 and not Switch Pro, and it probably isn't coming next year. There was also a planned revision that wasn't the Drake, but that got cancelled (that would explain the mix up with the Switch OLED rumors).
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Agree with all but not the part of release launch window 😉
 
ILikeFeet said:
I still don't believe that big Switch hitters imped on Drakes launch. it just gives an excuse for people wanting more power to spend more money. switch owners will enjoy the games all the same
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I don't think Nintendo wants to repeat the 3DS launch again. That was truly a bad launch and it helped drive them to a big price cut very quickly
 
Just got off work and am catching up with this news.

Are we 100% certain that this cancelled revision was not Drake?

If dev kits were going out in 2020 and 2021, that means that major work on the SOC was being done in 2019 and it was largely finalized at that time. If Drake is not the revision, why would they work on a successor before a revision?

Given how long Drake has been in development, it kind of worries me that maybe Drake is/was the intended revision that was canned.
 
Sol said:
Just got off work and am catching up with this news.

Are we 100% certain that this cancelled revision was not Drake?

If dev kits were going out in 2020 and 2021, that means that major work on the SOC was being done in 2019 and it was largely finalized at that time. That would seemingly predate any potential revision. Which makes me think that Drake was the revision.
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Orin did not even get sampled out until end of 2021 is the problem and production didn't even start until 2022. If they were working on a hypothetical Drake it would have been some Frankenstein chip meant to simulate what drake would end up as and would have been years ahead of when orin was even ready which doesnt make sense.
 
ILikeFeet said:
I still don't believe that big Switch hitters imped on Drakes launch. it just gives an excuse for people wanting more power to spend more money. switch owners will enjoy the games all the same
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Really? The launches of 3DS and Wii U suffered badly due to a lack of compelling first party software.

What helped Switch do so well was the amazing lineup of first party titles over the first 12 months.

The last thing Nintendo need is to release a console with a lack of big hitters in the first 12-18 months.
 
Sol said:
Just got off work and am catching up with this news.

Are we 100% certain that this cancelled revision was not Drake?

If dev kits were going out in 2020 and 2021, that means that major work on the SOC was being done in 2019 and it was largely finalized at that time. That would seemingly predate any potential revision. Which makes me think that Drake was the revision.
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But Drake (T239) appears to have gone into some scale of production, given Nvidia's submitting support to the Linux kernel. One wouldn't tend to do that for a chip that got cancelled.
 
Sol said:
Just got off work and am catching up with this news.

Are we 100% certain that this cancelled revision was not Drake?

If dev kits were going out in 2020 and 2021, that means that major work on the SOC was being done in 2019 and it was largely finalized at that time. If Drake is not the revision, why would they work on a successor before a revision?

This kind of worries me that maybe Drake is/was the revision that was canned.
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from my loose and thoroughly editorialized understanding, if somehow drake is what was cancelled nintendo is the deepest shit they've been in since the indy

edit: by which I mean it's a disaster beyond comprehension. like, sky is falling tier. ie probably not in my (uninformed) opinion
 
Magic-Man said:
I got that mixed up with the DF thing, but Nate's statements do not sound encouraging.
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I know but what was shared here through the last month is more encouraging than any podcasts or YouTube video than ever… and we have real tech genius that explain recents « leaks » and « news »…
 
Concernt said:
This really isn't comparable.
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Timing wise it's completely compatible. And there's no reason it can't be sold in ICE or an other bunch of uses. We simply don't know.

Nintendo were effectively signed on to be TX1's biggest customer before it was even revealed. Didn't mean they were first to market
 
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Concernt said:
They're just that, statements. Don't worry about them too much.
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I dunno. I never believed it was coming next year anyways. Never seemed like the right time. If Nate is saying that he's gonna investigate this over the next few months, that tells me not to expect anything in H1. And if it doesn't launch in H1 I don't see it coming next year at all.
 
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Bosintang said:
@NateDrake editing your posts so you won't get quoted isn't really fair play with a community which has overwhelmingly supported you when some (like myself, I admit) openly distrusted you.
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He's already elaborated, but frankly, I agree with him editing those away as someone who's supported him at every turn. They were clearly speculative, but were not being taken as such, which was confusing the discourse even more.

BlueManifest said:
Is this why Nate never did that video
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He never did that video because it didn't add anything new to what he reported, it just corroborated it. There wasn't anything for him to add. He stated this much closer to the actual NVN2 leak, and several times since when asked.

Serif said:
Yeah I've given up.

Funny that we have had concrete bits of code for the last 8 months that gave us a fairly straightforward and realistic throughline. If the only news we got today was that Drake got pushed to 2024 I'd move on. It's this extra bit of info about an unrelated 2023 revision that is truly a headscratcher. A ghost device. A phantom console. What even.
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Pokemaniac said:
Talk of a cancelled revision would have made sense back in 2019-2020, when Nintendo had just put out new hardware that could have been used that way, but didn't. It doesn't make a lot of sense in late 2022, when all the information coming out of Nvidia for nearly a year has fairly unambiguously been about Drake, with no solid indication of any other chip that could provide a more modern featureset for Nintendo. Especially when Drake is seeming pretty done at this point with no clear non-Nintendo project lined up for it aside from a highly hypothetical new Shield.

Something isn't adding up here.
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I see a few possibilties:

-The planned revision was an overclocked Mariko, and the "next-gen hardware" is Drake. There's several things that still don't quite fit here, but the refresh in this scenario would've essentially been the OLED model, but for whatever reason they just decided not to overclock it in the end. Some things make a lot of sense with this explanation, such as the under the hood changes to the dock, while other things don't add up at all (Nate claiming aspects of Drake matched what he heard about the dev kits, the timing being this year or next). We've also heard whispers that this was in fact planned at some point (not necessarily the OLED model, just using Mariko for a Pro), so who knows.

-The cancelled revision used Drake, as does the next-gen hardware. The way I reconcile the refresh vs. successor debate from a perspective that makes any sense here (since these would otherwise be the same device as far as devs are concerned) is that Nintendo is planning to move on from the Switch family entirely in the next few years. What the hardware would look like, I couldn't say. Maybe it has some critical new feature that needs more time in the oven. Maybe they're being bold enough to abandon the hybrid form factor for something entirely new. Nintendo is hard to predict at times.

-The canceled revision used Drake and whatever hardware we get next doesn't. This is perhaps the strangest, as clearly Nvidia's been putting in work for Nintendo and would likely be an expensive cancel. But it's possible.

-The info from today is wrong. Doesn't feel right either, but it's a possibility.

My mind leans towards #2 right now. But I can't say for sure. As far as I can tell, no one's said with any certainty that Drake wasn't for the refresh. Nate was speculating when he said it may not have been.

Concernt said:
But Drake (T239) appears to have gone into some scale of production, given Nvidia's submitting support to the Linux kernel. One wouldn't tend to do that for a chip that got cancelled.
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NVN2 is pretty suggestive, but Nvidia still could've had other plans for Drake. It could be entering a more limited production for use elsewhere.
 
And if 2023 is off the table as John seems to think, that would obviously mean a 2024 release at the earliest - meaning Drake launches with CPU and GPU tech that is already 4 years old.

So yeah, it would still be a massive increase over the current Switch....but it would still be graphics tech that would be on the verge of already becoming obsolete. Nvidia would be two full generations ahead of Ampere by that point.
 
A system that uses T239 getting canned for... another system using T239 to be released potentially only a year later doesn't add up to me whatsoever. I am still of the opinion that John was referring to two different devices here, one that was just an overclocked Mariko which is what got canned (potentially in place of the OLED), and the device we know now, that he thinks isn't coming out this year.
 
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Pacobob said:
Hello! What happened with the drake??
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tumblr_noh15txel81sl21koo1_540.gif
 
Can somebody summarize the last 8 pages? This one moved way too fast. Did we get any concrete information about anything after Nathan confirmed that his information was in line with DF Jonathan's info about a pro revision not happening, and instead Nintendo will focus on the successor, and Drake isn't affected (According to Nate). Which is nothing new per se
 
ShadowFox08 said:
Can somebody summarize the last 8 pages? This one moved way too fast. Did we get any concrete information about anything after Nathan confirmed that his information was in line with DF Jonathan's info about a pro revision not happening, and instead Nintendo will focus on the successor. Which is nothing new per se.
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It is a little a mixed tacos… chicken + kefta+ lots of vegetables
 
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I'm still in the team Drake will be releasing in 2023 and also I'm believed all this time that the Drake is a Switch 2 aka new gen, not a mid gen likes PS4 Pro & New 3DS
 
Gay Bowser said:
The "Nintendo Switch (OLED Model)" was a sort of baffling product, from its name to its positioning to its timing. I definitely think it makes sense that it was sort of a repurposed Pro without the new SoC. I basically said as such in this thread a few days ago:



This doesn't really have anything to do with the new hardware we're expecting now, which is the generational successor to the Switch. So I don't really understand the dooming.
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My issue with this explanation is that with the timetable Drake was on, it should've been known it wasn't coming until at least early 2022 before the pandemic even hit. The OLED Model was likely always going to be what it is (physically - in theory it could've also been overclocked, but still on Mariko), and the data on Aula in the firmware supports this.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
Can somebody summarize the last 8 pages? This one moved way too fast. Did we get any concrete information about anything after Nathan confirmed that his information was in line with DF Jonathan's info about a pro revision not happening, and instead Nintendo will focus on the successor, and Drake isn't affected (According to Nate). Which is nothing new per se
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I guess its the "2 Early" all over again, whatever it means.2023 or 2024, no one knows anything anymore.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
Can somebody summarize the last 8 pages? This one moved way too fast. Did we get any concrete information about anything after Nathan confirmed that his information was in line with DF Jonathan's info about a pro revision not happening, and instead Nintendo will focus on the successor, and Drake isn't affected (According to Nate). Which is nothing new per se
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A lot of statements that avoid giving concrete details
 
I wonder what could have happened in the last three months from DF's last podcast, where they were asked the same question and Rich speculated the chip may be entering production + we could be seeing a launch next year (John doesn't comment, Alex nods), and their latest one where Rich still hopes it happens but John doesn't think so - ? I wonder if John knew anything back in September.
 
mariodk18 said:
Like, wasn't it also a little odd that no one commented on the MASSIVE Nvidia leak hacked info when everyone and their mom was combing through and discussing the Capcom hacks? Or how about the big implications of the linux updates? Every other Mochizuki or Nikkei article was discussed quickly and soon after...but not hard data?

How about the fact that Emily "leaked" the Pro announcement being "imminent" mere hours before Bloomberg "imminent" article with nearly all of the same wording down to: could be revealed before or after E3 2021, devs want to show off games, sep/oct timing. And that it was relayed through Nate's account? And how soon after she said she was done with hardware leaks? It almost feels like she or someone she knew had a subscription to Bloomberg Terminal and was able to, I assume, access the article early. And then when the info turned out to be for the OLED her source unsubbed from Terminal or stopped relaying early article info, that that was the end of HW coverage, when she had barely covered HW before release, if at all. Unless she works at Bloomberg or knows someone who does?

Isn't also weird timing that in the same time that Mochizuki hasn't provided updates, so too have updates from others?

My bigger point is this: Could the reason that no one discussed the big actual leaks and updates from Nvidia be the fact that the info was so different from what they seemingly knew about at the time? Like, "NVN2? 12 SMs? Nope I haven't heard anything about that kind of hardware. 8 A78Cs? Doesn't ring a bell. Linux updates on T239 implying real hardware is finalized? Nah, it's not 100$ explicitly related to Nintendo so it's not related."

Well, if A78Cs and 12 SMs and a production potentially starting in the next few months clashes with rumors that there was/is an older canned "Pro" model, wouldn't you dismiss it? I mean, DF have done full produced videos and articles on much less; not the best sourced rumors, the Tegra X1 powering the Switch, etc. I mean, how do you do a video back in July 2016 on "hmm the Switch is delayed, so it could be Pascal X2", but not hard, data on NVN2, 12 SMs, an 8 core system? How is it not enough to entertain a video or an article? This device that so many are clamoring for and asking for, but no speculation on specs?

I do absolutely trust Nate, Emily, DF, and many others and they have gotten many things right in the past. But the vagueness the past 1-2 years combined with the clarity of the Nvidia leaks/updates have almost made things clearer. Unless T239 Drake is explicitly confirmed to be canceled or delayed past H1 2023. Because even John only says "I think" "at one point" "internally planned" "mid generation update" "seems to be no longer happening" "I don't think it's gonna be 2023". Not confident or explicit and is sourced from devs hearing of potential internal plans? The bigger thing is that he doesn't imply or even outright say that dev kits were sent out for this canceled HW NOR was there a recalling of dev kits.

We still, to this day, are only aware of one, main (in which I mean T239) unit for dev kits being sent out. Since then we've heard of updated dev kits and the intentions of working with RT relative to battery life. Why would you be concerned about RT battery life on hardware in early 2022 SO MUCH to the point that you straight up cancel the HW? I don't think the ideas I've heard of Drake being "delayed" out of H1 2023 are clear. Thus, I'm falling back on ol' reliable: the hack and linux updates.
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I prefer my theory that Nintendo put half the world's population under NDA.
 
Charamiwa said:
I don't know if their info on a mid gen refresh being cancelled is right but what's sure is that they know nothing about a new console in 2023 which is pretty telling, especially since they were pretty ahead of the curve in 2016 when reporting on the NX.
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That's a good point. If the next-generation Switch was just a few months away from being announced, you would think DF of all outlets would have some indication that it's coming soon.
 
Sol said:
That's a good point. If the next-generation Switch was just a few months away from being announced, you would think DF of all outlets would have some indication that it's coming soon.
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But why would they?
 
2023 is the year . With a business view … it can’t be later . March 2023= 6 years … wii syndrome isn’t a good sign … so thinking bout 2024 … I let you guess
 
Until we see a more concrete report, I’m still in camp “something” is coming by mid 2023. Switch hardware situation feels too bleak without it - the gaming media has already mostly turned on it or moved past it. 2023 feels like the right year to re-center the conversation on Nintendo
 
Jersh said:
My issue with this explanation is that with the timetable Drake was on, it should've been known it wasn't coming until at least early 2022 before the pandemic even hit. The OLED Model was likely always going to be what it is (physically - in theory it could've also been overclocked, but still on Mariko), and the data on Aula in the firmware supports this.
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Isn't that sort of making the assumption that Drake and the mid-gen refresh are the same, though?
 
Chances that the revision has some hidden fat in the Aula firmware datamine? Also, the dock having updates and the ability for HDMI 2.1. Something was definitely cooking, it was just a matter of what.

Also, I'm still team 2024. But what is escaping me is what would their launch lineup be without Zelda? Would they just launch with Mario + 3rd parties?
 
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