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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Serif said:
I am referring explicitly to Nate's recent comments.



This is what most of us are confused about.
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I have missed that one. I feel rightfully silly now.
Hermii said:
Common. Have we been in the same thread?
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Sorry :-(

So, according to Nate, there might have been a pipeline which involved a Pro release next year and a successor after that?

Edit : yeah, it is that indeed. I agree with the conclusion of the posters who say that this pushes back the earliest year of release of Drake to 2024.

Still, since nothing is confirmed, we still have no idea about the release of any hardware at all πŸ™ƒ
 
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My interpretation:
There was a revision planed, got cut, they repurposed the new model for the oled because of the pandemic, which lead to the confusion about a 4k switch at the time.

They did think about positioning the drake switch as the pro model after that, but decided against it... Leading to "mid gen refresh" being dead.

Since everybody was already accepting that its to late for a pro model since the oled was released, the information that the pro idea was scrapped leads to confusion, since nobody even thought about it anymore and was already on the successor train.

Could it slip to H2 or even H1'24?
Maybe. Sure, much can happen.
Do i expect it to? No. H2 maybe. 2024 i cant see.
 
So much doomposting. Personally I find it all rather exciting.

Not much has actually changed in terms of the reliable information we have available though. We know T239 is for a next gen switch, we largely know the performance of the chip and we know final silicon exists. Timeline has always been up in the air, I don't think any recent comments change anything really, personally I am excited to see what happens in January, if I hear nothing I'll continue to enjoy my launch switch, though I really will need to fix the damn fan at that point.
 
Concernt said:
You're right to be skeptical but so far, we haven't actually had anyone say that a 2023 Drake is off the table, just that if it does come, it's next gen.
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i'm not sure why we're back debating the semantics of whether it's a 'refresh' or 'next-gen' when from what we know it's the exact same thing or at the least an evolving project. it's the next Switch either way.

the idea that there was another DLSS capable system being planned for 2023 after all the leaks etc showing Drake being deep in development and seemingly ready for launch (though perhaps not on the Nintendo side) seems outrageous. Orin is already in production so there's nothing far-fetched about a Nintendo device following next year. the only thing was that threw a spanner was the seemingly higher power of the device vs what we'd expect from Nintendo. if it ends up being delayed to 2024 and on a smaller node then yeah it makes sense sort of but i don't buy there was another device due to be ready that was cancelled. all the same project.
 
First of all, I'm happy to hear that we're going directly on a "Switch 2" and not a Pro.

Second, "no 2023" doesn't make sense to me. Why Nintendo is not showing Zelda then, a game that will be released in 5 months and we know absolutely nothing? Why Nintendo didn't show anything about Pikmin 4?

2023 is the perfect year to launch a new console, due to a new Zelda, the Mario movie, all the games that can benefit of a more powerful console, you could still sell the same Mario Kart 8 Deluxe with all the DLCs in a new package.
 
I can believe there were experiments with a TX1 die shrink (Mariko or otherwise) as a pro, and that this was the revision John @ DF was alluding to.

But such a device wouldn't have DLSS since the Tegra line didn't have tensor cores until Xavier.

And some of the earliest rumors about Switch "Pro", at least from 2020, mention DLSS.

This would line up with the leaked files of DLSS being demo'd with NVN2 in 2019-2020.

In the NVN2 files the only chip types specified are T234 (Orin) and T239 (Drake). I guess an earlier chip type could have been scrubbed, but Nate's info seems like a recent development.

Could a "mid-gen 2023 refresh" have been something like an Orin Nano, where it wouldn't have needed another codename?

Just trying to connect the dots here.
 
Serif said:
I can believe there were experiments with a TX1 die shrink (Mariko or otherwise) as a pro, and that this was the revision John @ DF was alluding to.

But such a device wouldn't have DLSS since the Tegra line didn't have tensor cores until Xavier.

And some of the earliest rumors about Switch "Pro", at least from 2020, mention DLSS.

This would line up with the leaked files of DLSS being demo'd with NVN2 in 2019-2020.

In the NVN2 files the only chip types specified are T234 and T239. I guess an earlier chip type could have been scrubbed, but Nate's info seems like a recent development.

Could a "mid-gen 2023 refresh" have been something like an Orin Nano, where it wouldn't have needed another codename?

Just trying to connect the dots here.
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I really don't see any reconciliation of this tbh

hindsight will be illuminating I'm sure
 
Soralink91 said:
Curious if Zelda Tears of the Kingdom get a deluxe release for the switch 2. Next Zelda won't be ready for a long time to help sell the new system.
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Lol if that happens I hope that I will have built up enough self-respect by that point to tell Nintendo to go fuck themselves
 
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everytime someone says 'next-gen' i'm simply gonna put my fingers in my ears and think about Uncles, enlarged backplates, & Ray-traced 4k Tears of the Drakedom. concentrate hard enough and you'll too hear the factory lines getting into gear!
 
I'm certainly not one for sub-posting, and my last message may come off as exactly that, so I'm going to clarify. Everything I'll say here is my opinion, and my opinion only.

NateDrake probably does have a few contacts in the industry, as I have "contacts" in the movie industry because my mother edits most of the movies of a C+ film director. That is enough to get the date of a direct right. That can be occasionally enough to get a few games right, though it's really a hit and miss (call of duty being an example among others). When it comes to big news, and especially hardware news, I do not believe that his word has more weight than any of the regular members of this topic; and certainly less than those who seem to understand hardware much better, I would say.
No hard feeling NateDrake , I know you have a business to run and that business relies heavily on you being an "insider" to a notoriously opaque industry. As I said, this is just my opinion on the matter and I find this whole insider culture/worshipping very toxic.
 
I guess the only leaker I will put faith in is kopite7kimi on Twitter he's been right about everything Nvidia related.

He said it's going to be on T239 called Drake so by all means I believe it. We have seen other posters work hard deciphering the linux kernel that pretty much confirms this.

From what I understand is that we got confirmation of is the switch pro has been canned...this doesn't mean the NuSwitch has been canned.

While Nate has been cryptic for sure and it's frusteating but he made it clear the pro was supposed to release in 2023 and it was canned. Fine cool but that doesn't prevent Nintendo from moving up the NuSwitch launch by a year or making any further adjustments on the NuSwitch if released in 2024 or 2025.
 
SΓ­riocaz said:
Digital Foundry just wanted to put a "/thread" here.
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screenshot2022-12-27ax6cjd.jpg
 
Serif said:
I can believe there were experiments with a TX1 die shrink (Mariko or otherwise) as a pro, and that this was the revision John @ DF was alluding to.

But such a device wouldn't have DLSS since the Tegra line didn't have tensor cores until Xavier.

And some of the earliest rumors about Switch "Pro", at least from 2020, mention DLSS.

This would line up with the leaked files of DLSS being demo'd with NVN2 in 2019-2020.

In the NVN2 files the only chip types specified are T234 (Orin) and T239 (Drake). I guess an earlier chip type could have been scrubbed, but Nate's info seems like a recent development.

Could a "mid-gen 2023 refresh" have been something like an Orin Nano, where it wouldn't have needed another codename?

Just trying to connect the dots here.
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Isn't the Orin nano just a binned Orin? Woudnt make sense to use it for Nintendo then.

Imo there's just no way to reconcile a late 2022/ early 2023 dlss Nintendo device not using Drake.
 
With how powerful the new console seems to be, how long the cross gen period has been, how obvious diminishing returns are, and how underpowered the series S appears to be (as in, 1/3-ish of a series X), I would argue that even in 2025, the leaked Drake stuff would still be a fine piece of hardware.
With that being said, I'm still thinking that 2024 is the likest outcome, just based on development cycles.
 
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Honestly, I am not sure I understand the current hypothesis.
What until a few weeks ago could have been released during H1 2023 is now being branded as a cancelled (as well as unknown) model?

Kind of like how the Oled model was mistaken for Drake/Dane/4K?

So now

H1 2023 🚫
H2 2023 🚫
H1-H2 2024 πŸ‘€?
 
Aether said:
As with many "intuition pumps" (i never liked dennetts name for thrm), its a good tool for reasoning, but its not scientific or even correct.
Its overused and frankly to often missused.
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Because like all "debate me" life hacks, it's mostly a tool to feel smart. And if two people both try to razor eachother, you just get a really boring debate about what "simple" means that goes in circles.
 
As i can read, nobody says that Switch Drake (now Switch 2) cant be released on 2023. (speculating on the date as they have done in DF is not reporting the date)

They only speaks about a pro model, like Nikkey few years ago. They report a pro model was cancelled because Nintendo was focused on the next gen
 
Teal'c said:
Honestly, I am not sure I understand the current hypothesis.
What until a few weeks ago could have been released during H1 2023 is now being branded as a cancelled (as well as unknown) model?

Kind of like how the Oled model was mistaken for Drake/Dane/4K?

So now

H1 2023 🚫
H2 2023 🚫
H1-H2 2024 πŸ‘€?
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2023 is not off the table. Nothing has been said to the effect of "Drake is not releasing in 2023".
 
Teal'c said:
Honestly, I am not sure I understand the current hypothesis.
What until a few weeks ago could have been released during H1 2023 is now being branded as a cancelled (as well as unknown) model?

Kind of like how the Oled model was mistaken for Drake/Dane/4K?

So now

H1 2023 🚫
H2 2023 🚫
H1-H2 2024 πŸ‘€?
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No, there's no consensus right now about anything.
 
Firstly; all of what I had reported was corroborated by Bloomberg reports & the Nvidia NVN2 leaks would further back the information.

My final post in this thread for the year: Do people think I'm joyful that the information reported back in October '21 is no longer accurate? I talk with contacts (developers, publishers, supply chain contacts, etc) and get the best information I can from them. For the past few months, I've been having conversations with them and chasing down leads. Looking for confirmation on plans/timing/etc... The posts implying that I should share anything the moment I hear of it but then chastises for sharing info that could potentially become inaccurate -- due to the changes or misunderstanding.

On the matter of 'Drake' and what hardware that is specifically designed for (and this is my personal speculation): could Drake have been the intended revision at one point? Maybe. Could it now be the base of the next-gen hardware? Perhaps. Select features of Drake match those of the kits I had heard about -- which would then be further backed and reported by Bloomberg's own reporting.
 
Raccoon said:
I really don't see any reconciliation of this tbh

hindsight will be illuminating I'm sure
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Hermii said:
Isn't the Orin nano just a binned Orin? Woudnt make sense to use it for Nintendo then.

Imo there's just no way to reconcile a late 2022/ early 2023 dlss Nintendo device not using Drake.
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Yeah I've given up.

Funny that we have had concrete bits of code for the last 8 months that gave us a fairly straightforward and realistic throughline. If the only news we got today was that Drake got pushed to 2024 I'd move on. It's this extra bit of info about an unrelated 2023 revision that is truly a headscratcher. A ghost device. A phantom console. What even.
 
Every time says "x is OBVIOUSLY a Switch Pro/2 launch title" Nintendo delays it. It got so bad with TotK that they delayed a year+.

Also I think we're at a point where this thread might be better off closed until an official announcement or very major leak a la the Nvidia hack. We've already been grasping at scraps of info and hypotheticals, and now the desert seems to stretch even longer than anticipated
 
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