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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

After the lack of announcement of an NVIDIA product using T239 today, I can understand why some people are now hopeful for a 2023 launch.
However, after Digital Foundries comments, Mochizuki's backing of those comments, and NateDrake's claims of "hardware for H1 of 2023 being cancelled", I cannot remain on the 2023 train anymore.

There's literally no one corroborating these rumors. The author of the articles related to devkits for Nintendo hardware that we've been using as supporting argument for an imminent release is quite literally saying that those reports are now obsolete. The only insider that was active in these discussions flat out said that the hardware they've been discussing has been cancelled. The group that correctly reported on Switch rumors prior to release and covered the OLED situation flawlessly have stated that they've heard nothing about a 2023 release. And yet, it seems that T239's client is only Nintendo? The evidence that we have points towards T239 being done and about to start production. How the hell has no one heard anything?

I really hope we get a piece of investigative journalism on this whole Switch 2/Pro timeline once the next console is actually out. The developments have been so bizarre
Whenever they said that a new Switch was coming, they failed to predict. It would be funny if now that they've given up the new hardware actually exists.
 
The author of the articles related to devkits for Nintendo hardware that we've been using as supporting argument for an imminent release is quite literally saying that those reports are now obsolete.
Where'd he say this?
 
After the lack of announcement of an NVIDIA product using T239 today, I can understand why some people are now hopeful for a 2023 launch.
However, after Digital Foundries comments, Mochizuki's backing of those comments, and NateDrake's claims of "hardware for H1 of 2023 being cancelled", I cannot remain on the 2023 train anymore.

There's literally no one corroborating these rumors. The author of the articles related to devkits for Nintendo hardware that we've been using as supporting argument for an imminent release is quite literally saying that those reports are now obsolete. The only insider that was active in these discussions flat out said that the hardware they've been discussing has been cancelled. The group that correctly reported on Switch rumors prior to release and covered the OLED situation flawlessly have stated that they've heard nothing about a 2023 release. And yet, it seems that T239's client is only Nintendo? The evidence that we have points towards T239 being done and about to start production. How the hell has no one heard anything?

I really hope we get a piece of investigative journalism on this whole Switch 2/Pro timeline once the next console is actually out. The developments have been so bizarre
You're making out like there's one thing that all three of these sources are in agreement about. I would say not one of them is in any agreement, starting with the fact DF had one throwaway comment about past plans with no details, before going on to separately speculate about the possibility of hardware in 2023.

Where'd he say this?
He didn't. Apparently a smiley face is "quite literally saying those reports are obsolete."
 
Where'd he say this?

If this is about Mochizuki, he did not. The smiley face is at best an ambiguous victory dance due to a footnote about how the 4K device may never release in one of his articles. I can’t see it as being anything other than that for now.

If this is about Nate (unlikely as he didn’t write any ‘articles’), that’s yet to be determined.

Edit: Between the “2 early” and “:)” one could just as easily say it’s Mochizuki saying “It’s a successor (2), no longer a ‘Switch that plays games in 4K.’” Look at me jumping to conclusions
 
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I would still just like a simple answer on the timing of cancellation. Just a simple we have been told it was cancelled XYZ. We were told a Mid Gen refresh was cancelled. We have cancellation ranges from 2020-2022. Nate says the cancelled product is indeed Drake but everything we know about Drake does not come even close to indicating a mid gen refresh. A Hypothetical die shrink of drake doesn't make sense for suddenly setting Nintendo back years either. The shrink would simply allow a change in clocks on the exact same hardware. So developers being told we are throwing out the system thanks for wasting your time doesn't make sense.

Nintendo cancelling hardware is not new. They don't go to development with 3rd parties and midway through cancel hardware though. Nintendo kills stuff before it leaves Nintendo
 
It's almost like it's too good for Nintendo studios, right? Haha, jokes aside, i'm wondering how long it'll take for the EPD teams to make a Horizon in a regular basis, as the absolute bare minimum for every 1st party release.
I... prefer to let the emojis speak. Takes Pitcher; Sips Cocktail... 🥂🍾🍷🍸🍹🧉:rolleyes::sneaky:
 
He didn't. Apparently a smiley face is "quite literally saying those reports are obsolete."
If this is about Mochizuki, he did not. The smiley face is at best him leaning into how he had a footnote about how the 4K device may never release in one of his articles. I can’t see it as being anything other than that for now.
That's all I could remember. I also thought the smiley face was odd, as I don't think the 4K device he was talking about and the shelved revision spoken of by John were the same thing. I've always assumed 4K devkits = Drake. I forgot about the footnote, though. Rereading it, he'd certainly be right about the considerable burden on devs if Switch 4K / T239 is cancelled - which is why I think if there were such a cancellation, there'd be some noise.
 
Nate says the cancelled product is indeed Drake but everything we know about Drake does not come even close to indicating a mid gen refresh.
Nate did not say this. He said Drake shares some features of the product he had been talking about (DLSS, 4K), but he did not say the cancelled product was Drake itself.

Unless I missed a post somewhere in which case I'll stand corrected.
 
Nate did not say this. He said Drake shares some features of the product he had been talking about (DLSS, 4K), but he did not say the cancelled product was Drake itself.

And just to help the audience, is this not specifically why the thread is in a tizzy about the rumor? ie. It seems improbable for two devices / a separate chip with these features to exist
 
That's all I could remember. I also thought the smiley face was odd, as I don't think the 4K device he was talking about and the shelved revision spoken of by John were the same thing. I've always assumed 4K devkits = Drake. I forgot about the footnote, though. Rereading it, he'd certainly be right about the considerable burden on devs if Switch 4K / T239 is cancelled - which is why I think if there were such a cancellation, there'd be some noise.
The worst part about the smiley face is that after the first one, he posted a second one in reply to a "wow this totally vindicates you" simp tweet, even though he never once said anything had been cancelled (mid-gen, 4K, whatever). His most recent report on the 4K Switch doubled down on its existence and even gave a new release window, while merely mentioning that Nintendo has cancelled things in the past (with the hilarious example of "QoL" being given).

So, whatever he's trying to say, it's not coherent. If he's agreeing with the report offhand comment, then he's trying to pat himself on the back for something he never actually reported.
 
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And just to help the audience, is this not specifically why the thread is in a tizzy about the rumor?
I mean yeah, it seemed to me like the question of "is the cancelled thing actually Drake" was a part of the big swirl. But nobody sharing the cancellation story, not Nate, not DF, have said that Drake (which the info in this thread seems to show is full steam ahead) was the "shelved" product. They just said a mid-gen refresh was shelved.

Call me crazy but I really feel like this past week was a Yoda moment and that there is another Skywalker.
 
Yeah Mochizuki's response didn't help with the confusion over whether or not a "4K Switch" had been cancelled, along with the way the podcast had been paraded around as "DF confirms Switch Pro canned". Even though in that same episode (and one from 3 months ago) they discuss T239 as a possibility for the next Switch. And honestly, all I care about is T239.
 
Yeah Mochizuki's response didn't help with the confusion over whether or not a "4K Switch" had been cancelled, along with the way the podcast had been paraded around as "DF confirms Switch Pro canned". Even though in that same episode (and one from 3 months ago) they discuss T239 as a possibility for the next Switch. And honestly, all I care about is T239.
Nate even said in a podcast months ago that he was no longer confident in calling what was coming a "Switch Pro," based on how the project seemed to be developing. I wouldn't be surprised if (and I know this has been pitched a bunch lately, not tryina beat a dead horse) there was a Pro, that was what Nate heard about, was what Mochi reported on, but the whole path has evolved and that "Pro" has been shelved in favor of T239.

The only thing I don't get is why it wouldn't show up in any datamines.

Actually, not trying to stir the wrong pot but: could someone help me out with what T236 is about? As far as I've gleaned it's also attached to NVN2 in the big leak (as was some form of the "Dane" name we initially were told about iirc) but I'm not quite understanding what it was or wasn't. Is there a possibility it was a very early "Pro" that got scrapped?

Edit: sorry @Serif, that started as me kinda "yes and"ing you and it sorta got away from what you were talking about. 😅
 
Actually, not trying to stir the wrong pot but: could someone help me out with what T236 is about? As far as I've gleaned it's also attached to NVN2 in the big leak (as was some form of the "Dane" name we initially were told about iirc) but I'm not quite understanding what it was or wasn't. Is there a possibility it was a very early "Pro" that got scrapped?

Edit: sorry @Serif, that started as me kinda "yes and"ing you and it sorta got away from what you were talking about. 😅
Np, I love improv.

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There's nothing tying Dane to T236 and nothing tying either of them to NVN. It follows the naming convention of Ampere T23X and might have existed at some point, but no hard evidence that it was related to any chip in development.
 
Np, I love improv.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


There's nothing tying Dane to T236 and nothing tying either of them to NVN. It follows the naming convention of Ampere T23X and might have existed at some point, but no hard evidence that it was related to any chip in development.
Gotchagotcha, glad I asked, thanks. Sometimes this thread moves so fast that I only catch flashes and keywords 😅
 
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I discussed this before, but MZ's ":)" comment was timestamped specifically at the part where John says that there was a mid-gen refresh planned and canceled early. In the 11 devs article, he stated:
Bloomberg began reporting on details of the product more than a year ago, including the bigger OLED display, the fall release and the higher price. It was also supposed to contain a faster chip from Nvidia Corp. that would enable 4K graphics when connected to a television, people familiar with the plan said in March. Nvidia declined to comment.

But the 4K capability didn’t come to pass. It’s unclear exactly when the design changed. The reason, according to a person familiar with Nintendo’s hardware planning, was component shortages, a far-reaching problem born out of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Not about the part that Drake was delayed. His last comment at the end of the article was:
Although Bloomberg identified 11 companies using the 4K kits, the actual number is probably much higher.

Nintendo could still decide to not release a 4K Switch. The Kyoto, Japan-based company has quietly shelved numerous products over the years for strategic reasons or technical challenges. One noteworthy example is a sleep monitor called Quality of Life that the company unveiled in 2014 and never sold.
So he only ever said "2022 at the earliest" really or "that it would be canceled". If 2023 was entirely off, I'm sure we would've heard that from MZ or someone else first.
 
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I would still just like a simple answer on the timing of cancellation. Just a simple we have been told it was cancelled XYZ. We were told a Mid Gen refresh was cancelled. We have cancellation ranges from 2020-2022. Nate says the cancelled product is indeed Drake but everything we know about Drake does not come even close to indicating a mid gen refresh. A Hypothetical die shrink of drake doesn't make sense for suddenly setting Nintendo back years either. The shrink would simply allow a change in clocks on the exact same hardware. So developers being told we are throwing out the system thanks for wasting your time doesn't make sense.

Nintendo cancelling hardware is not new. They don't go to development with 3rd parties and midway through cancel hardware though. Nintendo kills stuff before it leaves Nintendo
It's not even midway if you believe Nate, it's last minute.
 
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Nate did not say this. He said Drake shares some features of the product he had been talking about (DLSS, 4K), but he did not say the cancelled product was Drake itself.

Unless I missed a post somewhere in which case I'll stand corrected.
Had to be though, by extension.

If there was a second 4K dlss chip in existence, slated for 2023 there would most likely had been evidence of it in the Nvidia leaks.
 
Don't mind me, a bit behind on the thread.
Like I said, they want Nintendo to go the way of Sony.
People basically want to follow the itterative nature and structure that Sony typically releases every new generation, hyping graphics and visualfidelty, with very little disruption on current trends, unless that means including a new optical media player of some sort.

In other words, they want Nintendo to release something that could be considered "cutting edge" in this console war argument, with no disruptive innovations that could be labeled as "gimmicks".

But it always has been a console war. Pretty much Nintendo competes with everyone in the entertainment space, so simply following the same formula as Sony's will not do.

I'm not saying Nintendo shoouldn't pursue a powerful console, but rather they need to make enough differenciation between playing on the successor versus playing on the base (OLED) Switch, that people would be incetivised to upgrade, and not just because of some intenral tech spec upgrade.
This myth-making that Nintendo spurns or de-prioritizes tech advancement without it serving some bold new direction as a means of necessary differentiation from Sony and MS is frankly a coping mechanism from the Wii years (when it was lambasted for its less-performant CPU/GPU and Nintendo fans collectively chanted that performant innards were entirely unimportant when compared against novelty), which has evolved to a point where some Nintendo fans have turned it into an outright dogmatism, where any tech advancement that's not also tied to some bold new vision for a new paradigm of gaming every hardware cycle is a betrayal of the Iwata mission statement and any proponents of more performant hardware in the seeming absence of said new paradigm must be shamed for allegedly wanting Nintendo to be a facsimile of Sony.

However, there’s a few key things to note:

First, it’s not an either/or situation by necessity as it has been framed. One can want some new paradigm of gaming that does not sacrifice more performant hardware. It’s not terribly relevant to this discussion, but it’s still important to keep in mind overall.

Second, one must note that there is a difference between this "differentiation". Wii, DS and Wii U relied on input and display variation (2 screens, touch screen, wildly altered input methods) typically at the expense of an out-of-box standard one-screen and controller experience, whereas Switch relies almost entirely on use case differentiation (a device that allows multiple gaming use cases rather than locking the experience to one) while leaving standard input and and presentation methods alone, with any additional differentiation not compromising that primary experience. That’s why Ring Fit and Switch Sports can exist alongside very standardized console gaming experiences, because the hardware differentiates without replacing or superseding a standard gaming experience, while offering a device that conforms to the user’s lifestyle rather than their lifestyle conforming to the device’s singular use case. I think it’s absolutely fair to say that many people are OK with more differentiation, so long as it does not impose itself on a standard core gaming experience and is instead additive to it; part of Switch’s appeal is how it can walk that line of offering both of those things without one compromising the other. It's also fair to say that people may prefer use case differentiation to those that rely on wildly new input methods, for example.

And lastly, I think it is absolutely fair for some people to reject the notion that substantive differentiation MUST occur in each hardware cycle when no one (or no one worth talking about yeah, Steam Deck and Ayaneo aren't even in the same ballpark) has followed Nintendo's lead and is thus still differentiated as is and, based on current Switch sales, consumers aren’t tired of that differentiation that Nintendo has already offered. It seems entirely reasonable to suggest that the hybrid design of Switch still has a lot more juice to be squeezed out of it and there is no rush to make any sort of wild design changes. Nor is it unreasonable to suggest Nintendo won’t want to be in a rush to do so, as this hardware cycle is Nintendo’s most profitable years in their entire history (even outdoing the Wii and DS years by a fair amount).

So all of that said, "more of the same" for consumers who clearly haven't had enough, but with more performant internal hardware to meet the ambitions of more developers and maybe some new ideas at the margins that do not interrupt or impose on the core of what has made Switch a success being boiled down to "OMG, people want Nintendo to make hardware like Sony does" can end now. Nintendo is allowed to change its mind about what its priorities are, more performant hardware is not some betrayal of vision, anything one might read into having stronger hardware for this go-round serves nothing except a certain kind of Nintendo fan dogmatism.
Oxford English Dictionary defines 'cutting edge' as "at the newest, most advanced stage in the development of something".

Drake by definition is not cutting edge.

Outside of inheriting Orin's AV1 encode support (which is not present on consumer Ampere GPUs) and Orin's Optical Flow Accelerators (OFA) (which I believe are different from the OFA on consumer Ampere GPUs), and having a feature exclusive only to Drake called the File Decompression Engine (FDE), which Nvidia indirectly said is for video games, Drake's GPU, architecturally, is exactly the same as consumer Ampere GPUs, from having the same gen and same type of Tensor cores, to having the same gen RT cores. And Ampere was officially introduced in 1 September 2020, and is the predecessor to Nvidia's current architecture, Ada Lovelace, which was introduced on 20 September 2022. And Ada Lovelace has significantly larger L2 cache, larger Tensor cores (similar to Orin's double-rate Tensor cores?) with added FP8 support, and larger RT cores with more hardware features.

The Cortex-A78 was officially introduced on 26 May 2020. And the Cortex-A78C was officially introduced on 2 November 2020. (Drake's very likely to use the Cortex-A78C for the CPU since Nvidia mentioned that Drake uses 8 CPU cores in a single cluster, and the Cortex-A78C happens to support up to 8 CPU cores per cluster.) The Cortex-A78 is the predecessor to the Cortex-A710, which was officially introduced on 25 May 2021, which also happens to be the predecessor of the Cortex-A715, which was officially introduced on 28 June 2022.

So assuming Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake is launching on Q2 2023 (April - June 2023) at the earliest, the CPU and GPU technologies inside Drake is going to be ~2 to ~3 years old (and longer when including R&D).

Is Drake "withered tech"? No.
Is Drake cutting edge? Also no.
Is Drake really advanced technology? Yes.

In some instances, not using cutting edge technology is actually beneficial. The Cortex-A78, for instance, is actually more performant and power efficient compared to the Cortex-A710, regardless of if TSMC's or Samsung's process nodes were used for SoC fabrication. (Unfortunately, there aren't really benchmarks for the Cortex-A715 since the SoCs using the Cortex-A715 launched very recently.)
I think, as I mentioned before, "lateral thinking with withered technology" can absolutely be applied to Drake, when we consider what that phrase is actually supposed to mean and what we consider "technology". If Nvidia is designing SoCs coincidentally using Yokoi's famous design principle (as I have previously proposed), then it means Nintendo doesn't have to do the heavy lifting all by itself to do so.
 
I realize this is a lot to ask, but since it's the main source for arguments and speculations I think it's important: would it be possible for someone who has access to the nvidia leak itself to make a detailed index of its content? Something like the folder structure of the relevant part and what is where. The op has a lot of stuff, but in the end we all keep coming back to this
 
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Warning: unverified rumor

In the latest issue of Famitsu magazine, the well-known Japanese technology reporter Zenji Nishikawa talked about some moves that Nintendo may make in terms of new game consoles in 2023:

Personally, I think Nintendo will do something about new hardware, even if it doesn't actually ship. The basis for me to say this comes from "human activities".
I got news by chance that a "super VIP" person from an American semiconductor manufacturer who seldom comes to Japan is quietly conducting a personal visit in Japan. The company's products have also been used in Nintendo's game consoles in the past, and this person The destination is...
The same thing happened before Nintendo released a new game console, so I think it may be a similar situation this time...Of course, the purpose of this person coming to Japan may also be Rapidus (laughs).

Secondary source: https://m.weibo.cn/status/MmKzK0J2L
 
Warning: unverified rumor



Secondary source: https://m.weibo.cn/status/MmKzK0J2L
 
Just to add a bit of context to the website/source being cited: Ryokutya mostly posts early scoops of upcoming Famitsu issues on their website, and it's pretty much always accurate. In the past, they've tended to "leak" imminent Japanese Switch ports through these Famitsu articles, so I'm betting on this being an actual article that exists. This also means that the quoted Famitsu article should be released to the public, like, really soon.
 
Its happening
 
Inb4 switch lite oled out of nowhere

 
Speaking with GamesIndustry.biz as part of a feature giving predictions for the upcoming year in video games, Piers Harding-Rolls, research director at Ampere Analysis has predicted that Nintendo’s next console won’t arrive this year.

“I’m not expecting a next-gen Nintendo console in 2023: we have 2024 in our forecasts,” Rolls-Harding said, also stating that he expects The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom to sell “plenty of Switch hardware.”
 
After the lack of announcement of an NVIDIA product using T239 today, I can understand why some people are now hopeful for a 2023 launch.
However, after Digital Foundries comments, Mochizuki's backing of those comments, and NateDrake's claims of "hardware for H1 of 2023 being cancelled", I cannot remain on the 2023 train anymore.

There's literally no one corroborating these rumors. The author of the articles related to devkits for Nintendo hardware that we've been using as supporting argument for an imminent release is quite literally saying that those reports are now obsolete. The only insider that was active in these discussions flat out said that the hardware they've been discussing has been cancelled. The group that correctly reported on Switch rumors prior to release and covered the OLED situation flawlessly have stated that they've heard nothing about a 2023 release. And yet, it seems that T239's client is only Nintendo? The evidence that we have points towards T239 being done and about to start production. How the hell has no one heard anything?

I really hope we get a piece of investigative journalism on this whole Switch 2/Pro timeline once the next console is actually out. The developments have been so bizarre
My guy, 2023 is an entire year, and it just started, how are you writing off a whole year that when we are only on day 4.

Were you expecting to see things as soon as Day 1 (a Sunday), and because it didn’t happen, decided throw off the entirety of the year 2023?
 
I really hope we get a piece of investigative journalism on this whole Switch 2/Pro timeline once the next console is actually out. The developments have been so bizarre
telephone game = mess. thats all
 
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Are the commenters of this Weibo website japanese because my PC automatically google translate and it would be funny if the Japanese audience thinks the same way we do about waiting forever for a new Switch and getting trolled by Switch Lite OLED lol
 
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My guy, 2023 is an entire year, and it just started, how are you writing off a whole year that when we are only on day 4.

Were you expecting to see things as soon as Day 1 (a Sunday), and because it didn’t happen, decided throw off the entirety of the year 2023?

I'm completely writing off H1, and I doubt Nintendo has any intention of hurting Switch's holiday sales. As of now, I'm expecting 2024
 
I'm completely writing off H1, and I doubt Nintendo has any intention of hurting Switch's holiday sales. As of now, I'm expecting 2024
Nintendo would never announce a new system then if we are worrying about holiday sales now, in day 4 of 2023.
 

As a website holder, Ryokutya2089 is 110% reliable when reporting anything as early scoop from next Famitsu issues
You can securely enter in the "happening" feeling

Regarding Nishikawa, he's a very respected tech journalist in Japan, with big scoops and sources from the industry (the first one to report the SEGA cloud program for Arcades in the country last year)
 
Lol imagine if we are truly getting a new HW in may but instead of being market “Switch Pro” its a “Switch 2” but its design, specs and everything is the same.
 
Lol imagine if we are truly getting a new HW in may but instead of being market “Switch Pro” its a “Switch 2” but its design, specs and everything is the same.
That is what everyone here has been expecting for several days! I'm excited, personally.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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