StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[LiC]

Do we actually have solid proof that the T239 chip has been produced?

We have public commits for T239 support in the Linux kernel which reference potential hardware specifics (the PCIe bus is the commonly cited one) which may indicate they had physical hardware to work with. It's suggestive but not definitive.

If any Nvidia engineers want to make fun of me for my misunderstanding of their early performance testing, my DMs are open. :p

 

[Goodtwin]

Yeah, 12SMs versus the PS4 Pro's 36CUs.

That said: I do have some data on Drake's possible physical size. But I'm waiting for some dust to settle on the recent drama (and for some more data) before I drop any of it.

That is what is so problematic about what we "know". Ampere and Orin have traditionally been 8nm, but getting 12SM's and 8 A78 CPU cores into a die size that makes sense for the Switch form factor has been problematic if its sticking with 8nm. Its really hard to see it being larger than 180mm2, and even that would be significantly larger than the Erista Tegra X1 at 118mm2.

 

[Skittzo]

I am also bugged by the same line of thought. I was wondering - and I might say something stupid here - if us relying so much on the leak (for obvious reasons) is not making us not consider other possibilities.
The leak tells us that there was only one SOC in the works for NVN2 ever, and that's T239. Is there the possibility that at least a different chip was being developed for a revision, and therefore, to be used with the original NVN only? Could this have been at least in a preliminary phase, Orin Nano? That would have theoretically fit more the mould of a DLSS capable mid-gen refresh, wouldn't it?
Am I saying nonsense here?

As far as I understand it your scenario could very well be possible but A) we have no evidence to suggest it and B) it has no bearing on T239 or it's timeline specifically.

 

[Serif]

The leak tells us that there was only one SOC in the works for NVN2 ever, and that's T239. Is there the possibility that at least a different chip was being developed for a revision, and therefore, to be used with the original NVN only? Could this have been at least in a preliminary phase, Orin Nano? That would have theoretically fit more the mould of a DLSS capable mid-gen refresh, wouldn't it?

If there were an NVN1 based revision it wouldn't have supported DLSS.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I am also bugged by the same line of thought. I was wondering - and I might say something stupid here - if us relying so much on the leak (for obvious reasons) is not making us not consider other possibilities.
The leak tells us that there was only one SOC in the works for NVN2 ever, and that's T239. Is there the possibility that at least a different chip was being developed for a revision, and therefore, to be used with the original NVN only? Could this have been at least in a preliminary phase, Orin Nano? That would have theoretically fit more the mould of a DLSS capable mid-gen refresh, wouldn't it?
Am I saying nonsense here?

We can't conclusively rule it out, but the evidence certainly doesn't support it. We have some minor evidence of a cancelled revision, but little to none of a separate DLSS capable chip that could have powered it. The evidence we have is far more supportive of a cancelled revision that didn't support DLSS than one that did.

 

[jikky]

ハードウェアの推測の軌道に戻るためだけに。以前誰かが HDR をサポートするドレイクについて尋ねましたが、私の質問はドッキング モードで 4KHDR をサポートできるでしょうか?

合計で 4 つの PCI-E レーンがあることがわかっています。Orin NX にも 4 つの PCI-E レーンがあり、1 つが第 4 世代の速度で動作し、3 つが第 3 世代の速度で動作します。

PCIe レーンがどのように利用されるかはわかりませんが、少なくとも 1 つはドックへの USB c 接続に使用する必要があると確信しています。第 4 世代がレーンあたり 2GB/秒で動作する場合、HDR で 4k30fps 信号を伝送するのに十分な帯域幅はありますか? それとも、そのようには機能せず、USB C 接続に PCI-E レーンは必要ありませんか?

私はこのことに関してそれほど知識がありません。ディスプレイ ポート 1.4 の要件は、各 USB C レーンが 10Gb/s を提供する 25.9 Gb/s のデータ レートであることがわかりました。したがって、技術的には、USB C を介したディスプレイ ポート用に 3 つの USB C レーンを使用し、次にデータ用に 1 つを使用して、完全に提供する必要があります。 HDR を含むポート 1.4 の機能を表示しますが、制限が PCI E レーンからの帯域幅になるかどうかはわかりません。

もっと技術的な人が答えを知っていますか?

SoC の PCIe レーンとビデオ信号出力は異なるため、関係ありません。
USB-C は、SoC に PCIe レーンがなくても (スマートフォンのように) ビデオ信号を送信できます。
USB-C には高速 4 レーンの信号ライン (および USB2.0 用の独立した低速ライン) があります。
データとビデオを切り替えます。

ただし、USB 3.x データラインとビデオ信号を同時に使用すると、ビデオ信号が半分になります。
DP1.4 フルスピード最大 4K 120Hz、8bitSDR YUV444 または 10bitHDR YUV422
DP1.4 Half Speed 最大 4K 60Hz、8bitSDR YUV444 または 10bit HDR YUV422
おそらく.

しかし、DP1.4にはDSCという映像圧縮技術があり、
したがって、ドックでサポートされて復元されている場合、Half Speed は問題になりません。
もちろん、DP2.0 では DSC は必要ありません。

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DisplayPort

 

[lucapfstr]

That is what is so problematic about what we "know". Ampere and Orin have traditionally been 8nm, but getting 12SM's and 8 A78 CPU cores into a die size that makes sense for the Switch form factor has been problematic if its sticking with 8nm. Its really hard to see it being larger than 180mm2, and even that would be significantly larger than the Erista Tegra X1 at 118mm2.

To the best of you or anyone else’s knowledge, what kind of form factor or size would be expected for this kind of die size?

 

[ArchedThunder]

With the power of Drake I hope Nintendo takes a crack at another dark fantasy artstyle Zelda game like Twilight Princess. Imagine an open air Zelda with a similar artstyle to TP, but with the graphical quality of Horizon Zero Dawn, or the PS4 version of the second game (which I assume was a good port, never looked at it).

 

[lucapfstr]

With the power of Drake I hope Nintendo takes a crack at another dark fantasy artstyle Zelda game like Twilight Princess. Imagine an open air Zelda with a similar artstyle to TP, but with the graphical quality of Horizon Zero Dawn, or the PS4 version of the second game (which I assume was a good port, never looked at it).

Not to say it’s impossible, but Nintendo clearly didn’t like the realistic approach as much as the fans. Aonuma especially. But since they saw such big success with TP, I could see more realism in the future. Particularly, I could see something like Elden Ring but with more stylized and recognizable characters, and perhaps a oil paint like art style.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

With the power of Drake I hope Nintendo takes a crack at another dark fantasy artstyle Zelda game like Twilight Princess. Imagine an open air Zelda with a similar artstyle to TP, but with the graphical quality of Horizon Zero Dawn, or the PS4 version of the second game (which I assume was a good port, never looked at it).

Don't need to really imagine as that would probably be a flushed out higher resolution version of the Wii u Zelda trailer they showed

 

[fwd-bwd]

Just to get us back on the track of hardware speculation. Someone earlier asked about drake supporting HDR, but my question is would it be able to support 4KHDR in docked mode?

We know it has 4 PCI-E lanes total, Orin NX also has 4 PCI-E lanes with one operating at gen 4 speeds and three at gen 3 speeds.

I'm not sure how the pci e lanes will be utilised but I'm sure at least one has to be used for the USB c connection to the dock. With gen 4 operating at 2GB/s per lane, is there enough bandwidth to carry a 4k30fps signal with HDR? Or does it not work that way and PCI-E lanes aren't needed for the USB C connection?

I'm not that knowledgeable with regards to this stuff. I did find the requirements for display port 1.4 to be a data rate of 25.9 Gb/s with each USB C lane offering 10Gb/s, so technically using three USB C lanes for display port over USB c and then one for data should offer full display port 1.4 functionality including HDR but I'm not sure if the limitation will be the bandwidth from PCI E lanes.

Anybody more technical know the answer?

I have to catch a flight soon therefore keeping this succinct and not including any reference links.

OLED panel: Assuming Nintendo reuses the OLED model's Samsung "V" series OLED panel, the Drake model most likely will support HDR.

eDP interface (for OLED panel): Assuming Drake features the same eDP interface as the Orin, it will support eDP 1.4a standard, hence HDR ready.

DP alt mode via USB-C (for dock): Assuming Drake features the same DP interface as the Orin, it will support DP alt mode 1.4. If Nintendo is going to put only USB2 ports on the dock, all four USB high-speed data lanes will be carrying the DP signal and thus capable of 4K/60 HDR. If Nintendo is upgrading to USB3 ports on the dock, there won't be enough bandwidth (only two lanes) to carry 4K/60 HDR. If I remember correctly, however, by applying Display Stream Compression (DSC), the latter configuration can still support 4K/60 HDR. Conveniently, Orin does support DSC.

DP to HDMI converter IC in dock: Assuming the OLED dock will be reused, the dock's HDMI converter chip should be able to support 4K/60 HDR. It isn't clear whether the converter can decode DSC though.

In summary, the Drake model is very likely HDR capable with a few caveats.

Edit: Just saw @jikky's post, thanks.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Not to say it’s impossible, but Nintendo clearly didn’t like the realistic approach as much as the fans. Aonuma especially. But since they saw such big success with TP, I could see more realism in the future. Particularly, I could see something like Elden Ring but with more stylized and recognizable characters, and perhaps a oil paint like art style.

That’d be cool. Keep in mind when I say dark fantasy I’m not necessarily meaning something realistic or a copy of TP’s artstyle. Something heavily stylized can still fall under dark fantasy.

 

[Serif]

I always thought the 3DS Zeldas were a good base for a more 'realistic' Zelda with a fairytale vibe.
These did a good job adhering to the original fantasy anime concept art.

 

[Concernt]

I always thought the 3DS Zeldas were a good base for a more 'realistic' Zelda with a fairytale vibe.
These did a good job adhering to the original fantasy anime concept art.

I know I'm in the minority here but I thought those games looked absolutely horrendous.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

I always thought the 3DS Zeldas were a good base for a more 'realistic' Zelda with a fairytale vibe.
These did a good job adhering to the original fantasy anime concept art.

I strongly agree either these or the HD Wii u trailer they showed

 

[ArchedThunder]

I always thought the 3DS Zeldas were a good base for a more 'realistic' Zelda with a fairytale vibe.
These did a good job adhering to the original fantasy anime concept art.

I would consider Majora’s Mask and the future stuff in Ocarina as dark fantasy.

 

[mariodk18]

Who says the "middle" has to be a short period of time? The Switch's "middle" could be the same as the middle of a sandwich: everything in between the slices of bread. Anyways, here's a timeline of when Furukawa started talking about the "middle of the life cycle" for Switch (All quotes paraphrased by me):

February 7, 2020 - 9 month Financial Results Q&A
"Switch will soon enter its 4th year and we believe it is just entering the middle of its life cycle"

May 15, 2020 - FY 2020 End Q&A
"Switch has just entered the middle of its life cycle" "...it is possible to aim for growth that is unlike the life cycle of any other hardware to date"

July 3, 2020 - The 80th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
"Switch momentum increasing in 4th year" "2 reasons for that. 1- 2 different models with unique features. 2- Concentration of all Nintendo SW on one platform. Desire to extend life cycle by maximizing those advantages"

September 17, 2020 - Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2021 - Q & A
"Switch is just now entering the middle of its life cycle"
*(my note- I believe any point during the 4th year is "just" in the middle, going by Nintendo's words)

November 10, 2020 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing for the 81st Fiscal Term Ending March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"Switch...is just now entering the middle of its life cycle" "building a foundation for growth that goes beyond the life cycles of our previous platforms"

---

February 5, 2021 - Nine Months Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Term Ending March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"Switch has entered the middle of its life cycle" "no plans to announce a new model"

May 7, 2021 - Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Term Ended March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"development costs rising...as Switch enters the middle of its life cycle" "development of the next generation of hardware needs to being years before launch" "aiming to grow by continuing our integrated hardware-software business"
*(my note: personally, the above emphasized quotes are Nintendo basically saying we've been working on next gen and Switch will continue"

July 5, 2021 - The 81st Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
nothing regarding the life cycle of Switch

November 9, 2021 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing/ Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2022 - Q & A
"We recognize the system is at the mid-point of its life cycle" "OLED contributed to continued sales momentum" "foundation for growth, blah blah blah, exceeds previous platforms"
*(my note: last time Nintendo has commented on Switch's life cycle, middle, mid-point, or no"

---

February 10, 2022 - Nine Months Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2022 (Online) - Q & A
"As Switch enters sixth year, we believe there will be a decrease in the percentage of first-time purchasers in terms of future demand"
Q: "If the number of players remains at high levels or even increases, could it lead to a decision to postpone the launch of the next-generation game system?
A: "We base our day-to-day decisions on a variety of indicators, including the number of annual playing users, according to the circumstances of the moment" "with 100 million annual users, it is important to consider how we can maintain and expand on that number. Essential as we consider next-gen"
*(my note: I wonder how they might increase the number of first-time purchasers..."


May 13, 2022 - Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ended March 2022 (Online) - Q & A
"aim to maintain relationships across hardware generations...through Nintendo Accounts and non-gaming media"

July 4, 2022 - The 82nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
Q: regarding 110B yen inventories increase?
A: "two main reasons (*my note: not sole/only reasons): SC shortage and revenue recognition change which includes 'debt' when buying back fully manufactured product after 'selling' parts to subcontractors"

November 11, 2022 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing/ Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2023 - Q & A
"In essence, our approach to Switch business next fiscal year is similar to this fiscal year"

---

Going purely by Nintendo's statements, the "middle" or "mid-point" of the Switch's life cycle started in its 4th year and lasted from roughly Mar 2020 to Mar 2022 (about 2 years). So three years for the "beginning" and rampant growth, 2 years for "peak" or "mid-point" sales, which would suggest another two-three years of support. This would likely be in the form of the platform receiving the numerical majority (>50%) of first party published software AND/OR when they decide to wind down/stop manufacturing (unlikely given 3DS had 9 years and Wii had 11).

Everything we know about Drake/T239 and dev kits being out for 2+ years would essentially rule out the launch of new hardware ~10 years after Switch. Meaning that there is not correlation between Nintendo's vague Switch life cycle comments and the launch of next gen/ more powerful hardware. To me, "life cycle" means how long a platform is significantly relevant and how long it is the main push of Nintendo. When next-gen Nintendo exclusives start arriving in late 2024-2025, will the life cycle of Nintendo Switch (2017) be of priority to Nintendo? It will be their super budget option for legacy software and a way to increase NSO subs perhaps or reach lower income markets (perhaps with a Switch "mini" and/or Switch TV ala Wii mini for ~$99). If we ever see the return of "Nintendo selects" the closest thing with be $60 $40-50 evergreens in 2025+, when Switch 2 has finished its soft launch period.

 

[CocaFormula]

As far as I understand it your scenario could very well be possible but A) we have no evidence to suggest it and B) it has no bearing on T239 or it's timeline specifically.

Thanks for answering, and yeah, I was more thinking of something that would reconcile the current timeline with something that might have been considered before plans changed to reconcile some of the rumors we had.

If there were an NVN1 based revision it wouldn't have supported DLSS.

Is that a definitive no? Couldn't NVN be updated to support a different hardware with additional capabilities?

We can't conclusively rule it out, but the evidence certainly doesn't support it. We have some minor evidence of a cancelled revision, but little to none of a separate DLSS capable chip that could have powered it. The evidence we have is far more supportive of a cancelled revision that didn't support DLSS than one that did.

What evidence did we have of a cancelled revision with no DLSS? I assume you are referring to 2019 when we got Mariko?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Hm

Ocarina of Time would be a good game for a Ray Traced gaming demo. In the temple within the sands after the gerudo valley, there’s rooms that make you play with light iirc to stun those eye enemies that shoot lasers.

And there’s dark areas in the games that can better showcase the mood. Like Hyrule Castle post time skip with the ReDeads would be creepier.


And the Shadow temple has that very eerie and creepy vibe going on.

A GI system would be great there.


I would choose Wind Waker, but it’s very stylized even the water, so i find the idea of reflections to be off for that kind of game. Maybe a GI pass and AO would do wonders for the game.


Twilight Princess is also a game that has a dark tone to it.

Eternal Darkness can make a special return with a remaster that adds RT effects to it. Grounds it and makes it more creepy.



To the best that they can. I think the switch should in theory be able to handle those with sufficient modifications from Nintendo.

 

[Pokemaniac]

What evidence did we have of a cancelled revision with no DLSS? I assume you are referring to 2019 when we got Mariko?

We do have some evidence of a cancelled revision, but the reports of what it was seem dubious. Connecting it to Mariko is mostly speculative, but fits the existing evidence better than one that's capable of DLSS.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Is that a definitive no? Couldn't NVN be updated to support a different hardware with additional capabilities?

APIs can be extended, yes. But then you have to explain why they decided to call this new one NVN2 and not just keep NVN. It's probably done just ease of denotation

 

[Dakhil]

I'm not that knowledgeable with regards to this stuff. I did find the requirements for display port 1.4 to be a data rate of 25.9 Gb/s with each USB C lane offering 10Gb/s, so technically using three USB C lanes for display port over USB c and then one for data should offer full display port 1.4 functionality including HDR but I'm not sure if the limitation will be the bandwidth from PCI E lanes.

Dataminers found a reference to "4kdp_preferred_over_usb30" when Nintendo released system update 12.0.0. And the PI3USB30532 chip on the Nintendo Switch and the OLED model does allow all channels to be used for DisplayPort 1.2 (or DisplayPort 1.4 if Nintendo hypothetically used the PI3USB31532 chip*), leaving any USB port(s) run at USB 2.0 speeds since the USB Type-C port does have dedicated USB 2.0 pins. So 4K 60 Hz HDR should theoretically be possible, but don't expect full colour bit support, especially if using DisplayPort 1.2 signals.

* → I found out that the PI3USB3152 chip has been upgraded to support DisplayPort 2.1, which is a pleasant surprise from a hypothetical standpoint.

Not yet, but until games start to be made with the 5.5 GB/s of the lowest link (Xbox Series)... I'd begin to doubt high quality streaming and pop-in free games myself.

Only the PlayStation 5's custom NVMe SSD achieves a raw sequential read speed of 5.5 GB/s.

The Xbox Series X|S's NVMe SSD achieves a raw sequential read speed of 2.4 GB/s.

(I don't expect Microsoft to repeal the mandate that any game developed for the Xbox Series X must also work for the Xbox Series S, especially with the Xbox Series S, at the very least, selling as much as the Xbox Series X.)

 

[karmitt]

.

Meaning that there is not correlation between Nintendo's vague Switch life cycle comments and the launch of next gen/ more powerful hardware. To me, "life cycle" means how long a platform is significantly relevant and how long it is the main push of Nintendo.

I think this is an increasingly common understanding of those statements. Switch doesn't feel like it can stand on it's own for a full 10 years. It's already losing favor among the core audience, and no doubt Nintendo would have predicted this. I'm going to assume Nintendo is just trying to take the same strategy of cross-generational support employed by Microsoft, and perhaps take it one step further in keeping the existing Switch in the marketing for a couple of those transitional years.

 

[Goodtwin]

To the best of you or anyone else’s knowledge, what kind of form factor or size would be expected for this kind of die size?

The RTX3050 has a die size of 276mm2, but has 40% more GPU cores. So even if we reduce the entire die size by 40%, we are still at 160mm2. Add the CPU cores and it's hard to imagine anything under 200mm2. Could this fit in the Switch form factor? I think it could, but clocked very low. Potentially very similar to the original Switch clock speeds.

 

[mariodk18]

.


I think this is an increasingly common understanding of those statements. Switch doesn't feel like it can stand on it's own for a full 10 years. It's already losing favor among the core audience, and no doubt Nintendo would have predicted this. I'm going to assume Nintendo is just trying to take the same strategy of cross-generational support employed by Microsoft, and perhaps take it one step further in keeping the existing Switch in the marketing for a couple of those transitional years.

Yeah, they already acknowledged before the start of this FY that first time purchasers would be expected to decrease. And I don't see a new FE, 2D Kirby remaster, Bayonetta spin-off or a direct sequel to Botw making a difference in that regard. Nor would the multitude of DLC content. It really feels like next year is turning out to be a transition year, with something like ZOLED would definitely increase repeat purchases or "multi-house purchases".

That is unless of course they launch next-gen hardware with TOTK to boost new first time purchasers and follow up shortly after launch (say late June or July onwards) with exclusive third parties or advertising Drake as "the best way to play the new Zelda, 2D/3D Mario (I see one of these being NS2 exclusive), DK, etc.". 2024 has Prime 4 and the first year they majorly start to reveal and advertise THEIR next-gen exclusives like MK10, a 2D/3D Mario, Smash 7, Mario Party, FE, new IP, old IP reimagining, Pokemon gen 10 (2025), Luigi's Mansion 4, ACNH2, etc.

You'd also get Nintendo published 3P exclusives like Astral Chain 2/M+R3, a Minecraft equivalent (Roblox, CoD, GTA) to bring in new first time purchasers that would be different from the Switch audience. The COD/modern FIFA/Madden/GTA/Elden Ring audience is basically the only missing fragment of the current Switch user base and NS2 getting even a small portion of it would help to prevent a 3DS or even SNES-like decline. Not that NS2 would be THE home for most/all 3P games ala the NES/SNES days, but closer than they are today (which is already a big improvement).

 

[Serif]

Is that a definitive no? Couldn't NVN be updated to support a different hardware with additional capabilities?

 

[bmfrosty]

Honestly, if the hardware is backwards compatible with Switch games (and for this post, I'm going to assume it is), then the best discussion is forward compatibility and Nintendo's stance on games that target Switch 2G.

My best guess is that Nintendo strongly encourages that Switch 2G games run on Switch OG. That said, some late ports will are late precisely because they require more CPU than they're going to get out of the OG. I've been playing Borderlands 3 on my Steam Deck, and was piqued when it was rated for Switch. If that's really rated, and not just someone screwing around at PEGI then it suggests that the game didn't come to Switch OG for reasons other than the suitability of the Switch audience. I think that's probably system performance. That gets us some scenarios for it's eventual release:

1. FC via cloud version.
2. FC via impossible port.
3. No FC and the cartridge either doesn't fit (Nintendo standard) or it fits and prints a sorry message.

The point I'm getting to is that when the 2G launches, we're likely to see a strong handful of 3rd party XB1/PS4 games released for the system and the way those work in a Switch OG will tell us a lot about how Nintendo is handling things. If it's a mixture of 1 & 2, then forward compatibility is a mandate. If 3 is anywhere, then it's merely a suggestion - strong or not.

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

I think this is an increasingly common understanding of those statements. Switch doesn't feel like it can stand on it's own for a full 10 years. It's already losing favor among the core audience, and no doubt Nintendo would have predicted this. I'm going to assume Nintendo is just trying to take the same strategy of cross-generational support employed by Microsoft, and perhaps take it one step further in keeping the existing Switch in the marketing for a couple of those transitional years.

No system in its 6th year will remain in favourable standing amoung the core audience. And no system that has sold 110 million units is going to have an audience that is primarily fueled by enthusiasts. The Switch can't last 10 years on its own because basically no platform is capable of this at profit margins and growth trajectory that would be acceptable to shareholders. You're correct thay they are more likely to provide support to the base Switch for 12-18 months after the laumch of their new platform and third parties will support it for a chunk of time after that.

_______________

Nintendo will launch a new platform by 2024's end. They cannot explain to shareholders why they are going to eat a 20-25% hardware reduction in 2023 and again in 2024 and still stick it out with the Switch for 2 years after that. They are not going to sell record software volumes in those years and onwards either. In the product life cycle the Switch is in the mature stage. Even the most basic business person knows you don't introduce new products when your product is heavily in the decline stage. That makes maximizing your profits impossible. You introduce them at the end of maturity beginning of decline.

7 years for the Switch is March 2024. I would expect a new Switch generation from Nov 2023 to Nov 2024. I would peg it for March 2024 if I had to guess based on what they have said in their earnings reports. Nov 2023 would be fine too of course. A launch with TOTK is possible but I dont look at Nintendo's current software output and get the impression a full on Switch 2 is poised for May. We know Pikmin 4 is incoming. There is also Metroid Prime 4 that should have info for a showing this year. There is the rumoured DK abd obviously the work on stuff like new 3D Mario/Mario Kart/etc and they have a host of DLC and updates to pump out. Seems like there is enough content to produce a solid showing for 2023 on the current hardware.

If they are going clean generational break then what they have announced imo signifies the last push for current Switch software. I expect them to have some cross gen games but they will need some exclusives too and I dont think it makes a lot of sense to launch a system that has beyond PS4 level hardware but noy have a sizeable amount of showcase software. Getting Integrade/Forbidden West level cross gen differences in software for 2 gens does not seem like a very Nintendo motto

 

[Concernt]

The RTX3050 has a die size of 276mm2, but has 40% more GPU cores. So even if we reduce the entire die size by 40%, we are still at 160mm2. Add the CPU cores and it's hard to imagine anything under 200mm2. Could this fit in the Switch form factor? I think it could, but clocked very low. Potentially very similar to the original Switch clock speeds.

There are certain minimum clocks a processor has before it becomes inefficient. I believe T239's minimum clocks work out to a performance of about 1TF, even on 8nm.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The RTX3050 has a die size of 276mm2, but has 40% more GPU cores. So even if we reduce the entire die size by 40%, we are still at 160mm2. Add the CPU cores and it's hard to imagine anything under 200mm2. Could this fit in the Switch form factor? I think it could, but clocked very low. Potentially very similar to the original Switch clock speeds.

No, 1GPC (12SMs) is 51.9mm^2

 

[Deleted member 1324]

Who says the "middle" has to be a short period of time? The Switch's "middle" could be the same as the middle of a sandwich: everything in between the slices of bread. Anyways, here's a timeline of when Furukawa started talking about the "middle of the life cycle" for Switch (All quotes paraphrased by me):

February 7, 2020 - 9 month Financial Results Q&A
"Switch will soon enter its 4th year and we believe it is just entering the middle of its life cycle"

May 15, 2020 - FY 2020 End Q&A
"Switch has just entered the middle of its life cycle" "...it is possible to aim for growth that is unlike the life cycle of any other hardware to date"

July 3, 2020 - The 80th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
"Switch momentum increasing in 4th year" "2 reasons for that. 1- 2 different models with unique features. 2- Concentration of all Nintendo SW on one platform. Desire to extend life cycle by maximizing those advantages"

September 17, 2020 - Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2021 - Q & A
"Switch is just now entering the middle of its life cycle"
*(my note- I believe any point during the 4th year is "just" in the middle, going by Nintendo's words)

November 10, 2020 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing for the 81st Fiscal Term Ending March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"Switch...is just now entering the middle of its life cycle" "building a foundation for growth that goes beyond the life cycles of our previous platforms"

---

February 5, 2021 - Nine Months Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Term Ending March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"Switch has entered the middle of its life cycle" "no plans to announce a new model"

May 7, 2021 - Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Term Ended March 2021 (Conference Call) - Q & A
"development costs rising...as Switch enters the middle of its life cycle" "development of the next generation of hardware needs to being years before launch" "aiming to grow by continuing our integrated hardware-software business"
*(my note: personally, the above emphasized quotes are Nintendo basically saying we've been working on next gen and Switch will continue"

July 5, 2021 - The 81st Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
nothing regarding the life cycle of Switch

November 9, 2021 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing/ Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2022 - Q & A
"We recognize the system is at the mid-point of its life cycle" "OLED contributed to continued sales momentum" "foundation for growth, blah blah blah, exceeds previous platforms"
*(my note: last time Nintendo has commented on Switch's life cycle, middle, mid-point, or no"

---

February 10, 2022 - Nine Months Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2022 (Online) - Q & A
"As Switch enters sixth year, we believe there will be a decrease in the percentage of first-time purchasers in terms of future demand"
Q: "If the number of players remains at high levels or even increases, could it lead to a decision to postpone the launch of the next-generation game system?
A: "We base our day-to-day decisions on a variety of indicators, including the number of annual playing users, according to the circumstances of the moment" "with 100 million annual users, it is important to consider how we can maintain and expand on that number. Essential as we consider next-gen"
*(my note: I wonder how they might increase the number of first-time purchasers..."


May 13, 2022 - Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ended March 2022 (Online) - Q & A
"aim to maintain relationships across hardware generations...through Nintendo Accounts and non-gaming media"

July 4, 2022 - The 82nd Annual General Meeting of Shareholders Q & A
Q: regarding 110B yen inventories increase?
A: "two main reasons (*my note: not sole/only reasons): SC shortage and revenue recognition change which includes 'debt' when buying back fully manufactured product after 'selling' parts to subcontractors"

November 11, 2022 - Six Months Financial Results Briefing/ Corporate Management Policy Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2023 - Q & A
"In essence, our approach to Switch business next fiscal year is similar to this fiscal year"

---

Going purely by Nintendo's statements, the "middle" or "mid-point" of the Switch's life cycle started in its 4th year and lasted from roughly Mar 2020 to Mar 2022 (about 2 years). So three years for the "beginning" and rampant growth, 2 years for "peak" or "mid-point" sales, which would suggest another two-three years of support. This would likely be in the form of the platform receiving the numerical majority (>50%) of first party published software AND/OR when they decide to wind down/stop manufacturing (unlikely given 3DS had 9 years and Wii had 11).

Everything we know about Drake/T239 and dev kits being out for 2+ years would essentially rule out the launch of new hardware ~10 years after Switch. Meaning that there is not correlation between Nintendo's vague Switch life cycle comments and the launch of next gen/ more powerful hardware. To me, "life cycle" means how long a platform is significantly relevant and how long it is the main push of Nintendo. When next-gen Nintendo exclusives start arriving in late 2024-2025, will the life cycle of Nintendo Switch (2017) be of priority to Nintendo? It will be their super budget option for legacy software and a way to increase NSO subs perhaps or reach lower income markets (perhaps with a Switch "mini" and/or Switch TV ala Wii mini for ~$99). If we ever see the return of "Nintendo selects" the closest thing with be $60 $40-50 evergreens in 2025+, when Switch 2 has finished its soft launch period.

There’s a good chance when he’s talking about “middle of life cycle” he means “middle of our support”. They will not suddenly drop the 120 million Switch customers just because Drake goes on sale. MS and then Sony done the same in part because modern engines (even proprietary engines) are ridiculously scalable so games for the first few years can be released across “generations” then exclusive games start to pop up which temps existing Switch owners to make the jump to Drake.

Look at the Switch version of The Witcher 3 for instance. On paper it seems impossible yet with enough time and resources they achieved the impossible with cut backs to everything from mesh density to foliage to rendering resolution of course.

Nintendo are absolutely terrified of this next console transition because their business is cyclical and if you were a betting man you wouldn’t be crazy to bet their next console will fail based on their history. This is the very reason they will stick with a simple path - a more powerful version of what already works and what is already ridiculously successful. Yes it’s more like Sony and MS but well… it works.

In my opinion even if they didn’t have a cyclical business they would inevitably take less risks as the industry grows, the bar for visual fidelity increases and development costs continue to spiral out of control.

This arms race of compute power that Sony and MS have been fighting for 20 years was unfortunately an inevitability for Nintendo. Mr Iwata simply postponed that inevitability.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Honestly, if the hardware is backwards compatible with Switch games (and for this post, I'm going to assume it is), then the best discussion is forward compatibility and Nintendo's stance on games that target Switch 2G.

My best guess is that Nintendo strongly encourages that Switch 2G games run on Switch OG. That said, some late ports will are late precisely because they require more CPU than they're going to get out of the OG. I've been playing Borderlands 3 on my Steam Deck, and was piqued when it was rated for Switch. If that's really rated, and not just someone screwing around at PEGI then it suggests that the game didn't come to Switch OG for reasons other than the suitability of the Switch audience. I think that's probably system performance. That gets us some scenarios for it's eventual release:

1. FC via cloud version.
2. FC via impossible port.
3. No FC and the cartridge either doesn't fit (Nintendo standard) or it fits and prints a sorry message.

The point I'm getting to is that when the 2G launches, we're likely to see a strong handful of 3rd party XB1/PS4 games released for the system and the way those work in a Switch OG will tell us a lot about how Nintendo is handling things. If it's a mixture of 1 & 2, then forward compatibility is a mandate. If 3 is anywhere, then it's merely a suggestion - strong or not.

Nintendo might encourage it, but I doubt devs will bite. maybe go cloud simply because they won't have to do anything but any idea of putting in work to support Switch is just implausible, IMO

 

[Look over there]

Is anybody here familiar with manufacturing cost for various processes? For example, would a 8nm chip be cheaper than a 4nm chip even if its nearly twice as big? I could see Nintendo going with 8nm and low clock speeds if Nintendo can deal with large size and its considerably cheaper than moving to a more modern process.

Thraktor did take a stab at this topic on this post back in March. Then a little update in October.

 

[Codename_Steam]

I‘ve been thinking about Nintendo‘s next console transition, Nintendo no longer has a backup console if their main console fails. (GameCube and GBA/Wii U and 3DS). Even if Drake launches this year I highly doubt that Nintendo will let go of the 120 Million+ users until 2025.



I think we will see Drake this year at $399-450 and Nintendo will discontinue the OLED Switch and V2 and keeps the Lite around. For the first two years, all major first-party titles will launch on Switch and Drake. By 2025, Nintendo will die shrink Drake and make Drake Lite and by then Nintendo will fully drop support for the Switch.

 

[Concernt]

I‘ve been thinking about Nintendo‘s next console transition, Nintendo no longer has a backup console if their main console fails. (GameCube and GBA/Wii U and 3DS). Even if Drake launches this year I highly doubt that Nintendo will let go of the 120 Million+ users until 2025.



I think we will see Drake this year at $399-450 and Nintendo will discontinue the OLED Switch and V2 and keeps the Lite around. For the first two years, all major first-party titles will launch on Switch and Drake. By 2025, Nintendo will die shrink Drake and make Drake Lite and by then Nintendo will fully drop support for the Switch.

My expectations are quite different. V2 will be discontinued... Soon enough, I think, but OLED and Lite will probably continue until the Drake models are in a position to replace them. I think Nintendo was being honest about the 10 year lifespan of Switch, with software support continuing unt 2027. Anything that CAN run on Switch will run on Switch for the foreseeable future, and a lot of Nintendo games don't absolutely need Drake's power.

Still, the Nintendo Switch family of systems is a hard act to follow. Drake will fill the highest end, like OLED does now, Drake Lite the low end, but what about the middle? A Drake "Mini"? Not as many cuts as the Lite but enough to hit a 300 dollar price point? Or will they even bother, and gradually drop the Drake's price to 300-350 and have the Drake Lite in the 200-250 range. Something tells me they'll always want SOMETHING to offer in the sub-200 dollar range, but with inflation by time 2025 comes around, 250 dollars may well be that price.

I think the days of 80 dollar handhelds are well and truly over. However, as I've said before, I don't rule out the possibility of an ultra cheap, X1-based TV-only Switch.

 

[karmitt]

I‘ve been thinking about Nintendo‘s next console transition, Nintendo no longer has a backup console if their main console fails.

If Nintendo's "nervousness" about the transition was not a mistranslation, I suspect this would be one of the primary reasons why.

My expectations are quite different. V2 will be discontinued... Soon enough,

 

[Concernt]

If Nintendo's "nervousness" about the transition was not a mistranslation, I suspect this would be one of the primary reasons why.

It's an awkward spot to be in, the back-up if Switch 2 fails is to continue supporting the original and hope they figure something out. There isn't really a throughline there, at least with Switch the 3DS had Project Indy to succeed it if things went belly-up.

 

[Hidden04]

There’s a good chance when he’s talking about “middle of life cycle” he means “middle of our support”. They will not suddenly drop the 120 million Switch customers just because Drake goes on sale. MS and then Sony done the same in part because modern engines (even proprietary engines) are ridiculously scalable so games for the first few years can be released across “generations” then exclusive games start to pop up which temps existing Switch owners to make the jump to Drake.

Look at the Switch version of The Witcher 3 for instance. On paper it seems impossible yet with enough time and resources they achieved the impossible with cut backs to everything from mesh density to foliage to rendering resolution of course.

Nintendo are absolutely terrified of this next console transition because their business is cyclical and if you were a betting man you wouldn’t be crazy to bet their next console will fail based on their history. This is the very reason they will stick with a simple path - a more powerful version of what already works and what is already ridiculously successful. Yes it’s more like Sony and MS but well… it works.

In my opinion even if they didn’t have a cyclical business they would inevitably take less risks as the industry grows, the bar for visual fidelity increases and development costs continue to spiral out of control.

This arms race of compute power that Sony and MS have been fighting for 20 years was unfortunately an inevitability for Nintendo. Mr Iwata simply postponed that inevitability.

I still think Nintendo can manage their development costs even with the graphical jump, simply due to the fact that their games's art style forgoes realism in constrast to Microsoft or Sony's titles. They have had 6 years to figure that out, I'm sure they will still be able to release many games in a year with 4K hardware.

 

[Goodtwin]

No, 1GPC (12SMs) is 51.9mm^2

How did you get this info? It's so damn hard to get this type of info.

 

[mariodk18]

There’s a good chance when he’s talking about “middle of life cycle” he means “middle of our support”. They will not suddenly drop the 120 million Switch customers just because Drake goes on sale. MS and then Sony done the same in part because modern engines (even proprietary engines) are ridiculously scalable so games for the first few years can be released across “generations” then exclusive games start to pop up which temps existing Switch owners to make the jump to Drake.

Look at the Switch version of The Witcher 3 for instance. On paper it seems impossible yet with enough time and resources they achieved the impossible with cut backs to everything from mesh density to foliage to rendering resolution of course.

Nintendo are absolutely terrified of this next console transition because their business is cyclical and if you were a betting man you wouldn’t be crazy to bet their next console will fail based on their history. This is the very reason they will stick with a simple path - a more powerful version of what already works and what is already ridiculously successful. Yes it’s more like Sony and MS but well… it works.

In my opinion even if they didn’t have a cyclical business they would inevitably take less risks as the industry grows, the bar for visual fidelity increases and development costs continue to spiral out of control.

This arms race of compute power that Sony and MS have been fighting for 20 years was unfortunately an inevitability for Nintendo. Mr Iwata simply postponed that inevitability.

I would argue its more similar to the SNES, which only had a relatively small decline and released before the PS1. GBA followed the same path and managed to sell 81M units in 7 years, compared to the combined GB/GBC sales of 118M across 14 years. Meaning GBA managed to achieve almost 70% of the GB line of sales in half of the time. And despite that rapid success, they released the even more successful DS. Even a similar SNES-like decline would easily put them above 100M units sold, which I think they would be happy with.

 

[Codename_Steam]

My expectations are quite different. V2 will be discontinued... Soon enough, I think, but OLED and Lite will probably continue until the Drake models are in a position to replace them. I think Nintendo was being honest about the 10 year lifespan of Switch, with software support continuing unt 2027. Anything that CAN run on Switch will run on Switch for the foreseeable future, and a lot of Nintendo games don't absolutely need Drake's power.

Still, the Nintendo Switch family of systems is a hard act to follow. Drake will fill the highest end, like OLED does now, Drake Lite the low end, but what about the middle? A Drake "Mini"? Not as many cuts as the Lite but enough to hit a 300 dollar price point? Or will they even bother, and gradually drop the Drake's price to 300-350 and have the Drake Lite in the 200-250 range. Something tells me they'll always want SOMETHING to offer in the sub-200 dollar range, but with inflation by time 2025 comes around, 250 dollars may well be that price.

I think the days of 80 dollar handhelds are well and truly over. However, as I've said before, I don't rule out the possibility of an ultra cheap, X1-based TV-only Switch

I could see Nintendo keeping V2 but keeping the OLED will be confusing. If Drake is $399, keeping the OLED at $350 makes very little sense.

 

[Codename_Steam]

It's an awkward spot to be in, the back-up if Switch 2 fails is to continue supporting the original and hope they figure something out. There isn't really a throughline there, at least with Switch the 3DS had Project Indy to succeed it if things went belly-up.

This is a bit off-topic but do we know why Nintendo completely canned the INDY in favour of the NX? I find it confusing that Nintendo spent years of RAD on a console and then completely cancel it.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

I could see Nintendo keeping V2 but keeping the OLED will be confusing. If Drake is $399, keeping the OLED at $350 makes very little sense.

Well most people are assuming the OLED drops to $300 when Drake releases

 

[Concernt]

This is a bit off-topic but do we know why Nintendo completely canned the INDY in favour of the NX? I find it confusing that Nintendo spent years of RAD on a console and then completely cancel it.

Probably because NX was extremely successful and INDY was an unannounced "just in case" experiment if NX wasn't.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

How did you get this info? It's so damn hard to get this type of info.

Note: just the GPC is 51.9mm^2 at the same density.

 

[LiC]

This is a bit off-topic but do we know why Nintendo completely canned the INDY in favour of the NX? I find it confusing that Nintendo spent years of RAD on a console and then completely cancel it.

Where's "years of R&D" coming from? They barely had time to prototype anything in between the Wii U (November 2012 launch) and Switch (mid-2014 start). It's the kind of thing we would have never known about if not for the gigaleak, because it never existed outside NCL's hardware planning team.

I think it's probably normal for more than one prototype hardware project to exist at Nintendo, with prototypes being scrapped once one project is decided on. Especially back when they had separate handheld and console lines, and even more so when they were on the eve of merging them while jumping ship from the Wii U as quickly as possible, it makes sense that there would be concepts bouncing around that never went anywhere.

 

[Dakhil]

The RTX3050 has a die size of 276mm2, but has 40% more GPU cores.

That's for the desktop RTX 3050, which is actually now shifting from using GA106 to GA107.
The laptop RTX 3050 uses GA107, which is definitely smaller than GA106 (276 mm²) at around ~19x mm² based on kopite7kimi's Tweet.

 

[Concernt]

I could see Nintendo keeping V2 but keeping the OLED will be confusing. If Drake is $399, keeping the OLED at $350 makes very little sense.

From a business perspective keeping the OLED makes a bit more sense;

The OLED Model has a redesigned motherboard that's smaller, easier to assemble and uses fewer ICs.
The dock of the OLED Model uses ICs that are more readily available.
The dock of the new system could be similar or the same as OLED Model as it's 4K capable, which would further reduce supply chain complexity.

If they drop the V2, OLED will almost definitely get a price drop. I mean the next gen is out and they need to fillt he gap V2 leaves.

V2 by comparison uses an older dock design that's more complex and harder to assemble, it still has a USB 3 port that never got used, it uses an older motherboard revision that's more complex and requires more assembly, it uses a larger more expensive cooling system. It really doesn't have any advantages other than being an entry level, TV-capable Switch. OLED Model, internally, is the Switch's "slim" model, a die shrink allowing for a smaller motherboard and lower manufacturing costs. Only Nintendo decided to take those savings and put them into a better screen and kickstand rather than lowering the price of the device.

The way I see it, Holiday 2023's lineup will probably be Lite at 150-200, OLED at 300, Drake at 400-450. Possibly a TV Only 80-120 console as I've said before, but manufacturing 4 devices at once seems somewhat inefficient (which would also explain why one of the old models, not the Lite, will likely be discontinued this year).

 

[Codename_Steam]

Where's "years of R&D" coming from? They barely had time to prototype anything in between the Wii U (November 2012 launch) and Switch (mid-2014 start). It's the kind of thing we would have never known about if not for the gigaleak, because it never existed outside NCL's hardware planning team.

I think it's probably normal for more than one prototype hardware project to exist at Nintendo, with prototypes being scrapped once one project is decided one. Especially back when they had separate handheld and console lines, and even more so when they were on the eve of merging them while jumping ship from the Wii U as quickly as possible, it makes sense that there would be concepts bouncing around that never went anywhere.

There were rumours in December 2014 for the INDY before the gigaleak:

New Nintendo products may use Sharp's wild 'free-form' displays

The 3DS' successor could come in weird shapes

www.theverge.com

 

[Hidden04]

My main hope with the Drake is that Nintendo will still be able to maintain a healthy release schedule despite the graphical jump and control their budgets as well. I really don't want to deal with microtransactions in Mario and Zelda titles that take 10 years to make in the future.