Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:
[snip]
1 is pretty close, but I see it going down something like this.
Manufacturing leaks are starting to come out in January, but nothing definitive. Direct is announced for February 15, and some significant insider says "Switch Pro will be launched at this Direct"
It doesn't, no hint of it. We get a pretty standard direct "focusing mostly on games launching in the first half of this year" but several H2 2023 announcements are made, new tracks for MK8DX are announced, Splatoon DLC is announced, along with a schedule for major events running into 2024.
"One more thing" - Black screen. Sound of running feet. "Wahoo!" in bounces Mario, who tosses the New Mechanic McGuffin at the screen. Screen goes black. "On Nintendo Switch, 2024".
The insiders are shamed, smug fans say obviously the Switch Pro isn't coming, and YouTuber's do frame-by-frame analysis of the new Mario teaser.
Mid March. "Join us tomorrow for a special annoucement." Koizumi bows. "We know many of you have been enjoying your Nintendo Switch. Thank you for making it such a success. Nintendo is always exploring new ways to play with both our hardware and software. It has been 6 years since the launch of the Nintendo Switch, and we're not out of ideas for it yet. We'd like to show you something we've been working on"
A Switch playing Tears of the Kingdom. Koizumi covers it with a cloth, in reference to the Switch announcement video. He pulls it away, and the Switch has been replaced with a... Nintendo Switch Deluxe, playing Tears of the Kingdom in rich ray traced glory.
Sizzle reel - it's games which already play on Switch, plus a few announced at the last direct, all looking great on the Deluxe. That's the value proposition. It plays games better. Nintendo spent the entire last direct establishing that
base switch would be getting games through 2024, and not just half assed stuff either, the new 3D mario is coming. Switch is going nowhere, and the Deluxe plays those games better than ever. Nintendo then says something wild like "up to 8 hours of battery life" when playing unpatched classic switch games, and then plugs it into a 4k TV and shows a nice looking "boost mode" for Age of Calamity, offering smoother frame rates and stable resolutions. Nintendo shows no first party games that are exclusive to Deluxe.
"Now look at this" - oh shit it's Red Dead Redemption 2. It looks pretty good. Zooms out - it's looking pretty good
in handheld mode. "Play wherever you want. Only on Switch Deluxe" By making the exclusive third party, Nintendo makes clear that they're continuing to support the Switch with a nice cross gen period, but the writing is on the wall. In fact, 3D Mario is classic Switch's last hurrah.
Third parties come over quick. E3 direct basically announces the last big wave of Switch games, and by the September direct, classic Switch gets the level of attention the 3DS did with Samus Returns and by February 2024, we're fully in the Deluxe era.