StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Deleted member 887]

I listened to it once i got home. didn't hear anything bout Tears Of The Kingdom (must've missed it) but i liked his chat about T239 being a generational leap. He seems to be subtly dropping hints/info and i'm hoping he continues over the coming weeks. We are so o close now!

I’m fairly certain that the generational leap is a reference to the fact that it’s Ampere and is not in anyway a hint

 

[LoneRanger]

Zelda is arguably one of the most anticipated titles of the decade, surely something else must be in the works that's suitable for a launch, because that's an incredibly high bar for launches otherwise...

I can appreciate the simplicity, comfort and familiarity behind choosing Zelda's date for the hardware, but isn't 'launch window' just as important for the console's success? Zelda was key to giving Switch an incredible running start after the failure of the Wii U, but they had all of the following lined up in the months after:

• April - Mario Kart 8 DX
• May - Minecraft
• June - ARMS
• July - Splatoon 2

Unlike the Switch, this system doesn't need Zelda to give it the running start, at least not in the first month; It's going to sell out for countless reasons, among them being that the hardware itself is already proven, and remains compelling and mostly unchallenged in it's position, which is more than can be said about previous generations. They just aren't in remotely the same position as they were launching previous hardware.

Nintendo has not yet given us a view of what's planned for March-May outside of Zelda, and it's assuredly not going to remain empty. On top of this, there's the supposed wave of third party titles that'll be supporting the platform (re: Bloomberg) that we've not heard about yet - at least I assume it's nothing we saw in the September Direct. The following seems just as viable in my mind.

• March
  • TBD First Party - DK/Metroid?
  • Promoted 4K/60 FPS patches for evergreens, select third party titles
  • TBD Third Party - RE4, etc.
• April - ??
• May - Tears of the Kingdom

Tears of the Kingdom would guarantee pulling the system back to the front of the conversation, perhaps aligned with a second wave of consoles on the shelf.

If things happen with logic they can have a steady lineup of third party titles to quickly promote Drake in combination with a few heavy first party hitters like

May: Zelda Totk (crossgen), Wo Long (exclusive), Street Fighter VI (exclusive)
June: FFVIIRI (exclusive), Howarts Legacy (crossgen), Borderlands 3 (crossgen)
Summer: Kid Icarus Uprising Remake (crossgen), Ridge Racer 8 (crossgen), Cyberpunk 2077 (exclusive), Tekken 7 (exclusive), Diablo 4 (exclusive), F-Zero GX Remaster (crossgen), FFXV (exclusive)
Fall: RDR2 (crossgen), Pikmin 4 (crossgen), 3D Mario/DK (crossgen), COD Warzone (exclusive), Metroid Prime 4 (crossgen), REVII/2R/3R (exclusive),

 

[ILikeFeet]

I listened to it once i got home. didn't hear anything bout Tears Of The Kingdom (must've missed it) but i liked his chat about T239 being a generational leap. He seems to be subtly dropping hints/info and i'm hoping he continues over the coming weeks. We are so o close now!

his phrasing wasn't meant to be a hint, but speculation. you shouldn't read too much into it, I think

 

[Gay Bowser]

I think they’ll reveal Drake anytime after the launch of FE engage and before the end of their fiscal year.

I agree. I think a late January reveal actually makes a lot of sense; it’s usually a relatively quiet time for news in the games industry other than new hardware announcements (the Switch launch infodump in 2017, the PS Vita’s PlayStation Meeting in 2011, the PS5’s logo-only announcement at CES 2020…). It’s also early enough where they could potentially announce and release the system within the same fiscal quarter, something they may find desirable.

A presentation on something like January 24 makes a lot of sense to me. It’s exciting to think that we could be less than four months away from the unveiling of this thing (and less than six months away from its launch?).

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Zelda is arguably one of the most anticipated titles of the decade, surely something else must be in the works that's suitable for a launch, because that's an incredibly high bar for launches otherwise...

I can appreciate the simplicity, comfort and familiarity behind choosing Zelda's date for the hardware, but isn't 'launch window' just as important for the console's success? Zelda was key to giving Switch an incredible running start after the failure of the Wii U, but they had all of the following lined up in the months after:

• April - Mario Kart 8 DX
• May - Minecraft
• June - ARMS
• July - Splatoon 2

Unlike the Switch, this system doesn't need Zelda to give it the running start, at least not in the first month; It's going to sell out for countless reasons, among them being that the hardware itself is already proven, and remains compelling and mostly unchallenged in it's position, which is more than can be said about previous generations. They just aren't in remotely the same position as they were launching previous hardware.

Nintendo has not yet given us a view of what's planned for March-May outside of Zelda, and it's assuredly not going to remain empty. On top of this, there's the supposed wave of third party titles that'll be supporting the platform (re: Bloomberg) that we've not heard about yet - at least I assume it's nothing we saw in the September Direct. The following seems just as viable in my mind.

• March
  • TBD First Party - DK/Metroid?
  • Promoted 4K/60 FPS patches for evergreens, select third party titles
  • TBD Third Party - RE4, etc.
• April - ??
• May - Tears of the Kingdom

Tears of the Kingdom would guarantee pulling the system back to the front of the conversation, perhaps aligned with a second wave of consoles on the shelf.

I don't know why I'm willing to die on this hill. I'm obviously hoping it releases even sooner than May so that titles start supporting it sooner, but I genuinely do believe pinning it to Zelda is mostly because it's the convenient choice right now

Launch window is important, sure, but that would follow the launch date.

Zelda seems like what everyone is assuming on, but I’m wondering how they would show this device post holiday.

The safest is perhaps a post E3 Direct reveal with a late 2023 launch and it uses a different title. With the window being operated into 2024 and later.

Obviously not all of these, but a combination of several of these:

Super Mario (2d or 3d)- EPD Kyoto or Tokyo respectively)
Donkey Kong- EPD Tokyo
Metroid Prime 4- Retro Studios
Pikmin 4- EPD Kyoto
Ring Fit Adventure 2- EPD Kyoto
Captain Toad II- NST
Astral Chain 2- Platinum Games
Long-rumored Monolithsoft Action RPG
A remaster (Kid Icarus?)- Bandai Namco Studios
Star Wars: Jedi Warriors- Koei Tecmo- Maybe Nintendo rewards KT for all their development assistance by paying for the Star Wars license so they can make their dream game- this one is reaching- I know
Nintendogs- EPD Kyoto
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon- Spike Chunsoft

I expect there to be titles like this, except metric prime, but I’m asking what title would be the headliner for the platform? The others are just extras. Just like how Diamond’s soul was an extra 2 miles morales, which was the main course. Just like how 1–2 switch was an appetizer and breath of the wild was the main course five star meal. Things like this are what I’m curious on. The only other title or franchise that Nintendo has, which can supplant a main course entry meal caliber would be a 3-D Mario, the others would just be more of like appetizers, brunch, and then the end of the year after the system, launches would be the dinner, the five star dinner.

When the Nintendo switch launched, it had an appetizer, a brunch, a.k.a. arms, had a five star main course meal a.k.a. breath of the wild, it had a hearty lunch (Mario Kart), it had a delicious snack(snipperclips I guess?), and then ended off with a beautiful dessert in Mario odyssey.

But those are after launch. It all tied together yes, but again I feel like this matters.

 

[LiC]

Very unlikely since the chip is made for Nintendo. A Shield TV using it would almost certainly come after the Switch 4k itself.

It's entirely dependent on when Nintendo wants to launch. If they want to launch months later than the chip itself is ready, Nvidia could easily get their own device out first. The Tegra X1 wasn't designed "for Nintendo" but it was designed with a lot of their input and with them intending to use it for the Switch, and it still released first in a Shield.

I don't particularly expect it to happen, but it could.

 

[Raccoon]

"May 12 is such a weird date" I repeat to myself as I rock back and forth in fetal position on the floor

 

[Gay Bowser]

"May 12 is such a weird date" I repeat to myself as I rock back and forth in fetal position on the floor

If you want to pick a date roughly between the end of the March and June quarters, though, it’s perfect!

March 24 - something launches with Big Game #1
[seven weeks]
May 12 - Zelda launches
[seven weeks]
June 30 - Big Game #3 launches

 

[Z0m3le]

A lot more powerful, but that’s not the high bar really. PS4 was the weakest console in terms of the GPU.

Wait, hold on. Pull it back in. Something like PS4 Pro to One X (with DLSS) I think.

no

Xbox one X has a more powerful GPU than XBSS. Rdna2 with infinity cache is 25% faster than GCN, ps4 pro is 4.2tflops GCN, XBSS is 4tflops RDNA2 without infinity cache, so less than 5tflops GCN. Xbox One X is 6tflops GCN... XB1X also has more ram.

 

[ertaboy356b]

Hogwarts Legacy will be releasing at a later date. I wonder if that's something related to a new switch. Honestly, the game will probably run like shit on the current switch anyway, better to watch a playthrough on youtube and set it to 240p or whatever.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:


Scenario 1:

Announced January 24 “join us tomorrow for a special presentation at 1PM eastern time”

Throughout March are previews from news sites with hands on.

Releases May 12th.



Scenario 2:

Nintendo announces to their audience and especially to their investors as soon as the fiscal year ends that a new platform that will succeed the Nintendo Switch family of systems will be released in this fiscal year, so FY24. More information will be available later on. (This is end of March)



Zelda releases like nothing, but people are in desperate need for information.


Nintendo announces E3 presentation (not direct verbiage), shows the new console at E3 after showing the games, a new Mario doesn’t have a date yet. New console is announced and with a date, and also gives a date to that Mario game. In stores October 2023.


News sites get their hands on it around August/ September.

Releases October with a new title (and a few others)



Scenario 3:

There’s nothing done at E3, nothing announced H1. It’s announced in early July or Late June, after the E3 Direct presentation.

And it is set to release in November 2023 with a launch title to sell the system.


Opening into 2024 with late ports. Which Nintendo doesn’t seem to mind? But that’s neither here nor there.




These are three scenarios I can think of for a 2023 release.

theres a 4th one but it is related to one, the announcement being “soon” but the rest staying the same. So yes, this year announced for May. But idk if it was right to put that there…. So it’s a secret one

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Xbox one X has a more powerful GPU than XBSS. Rdna2 with infinity cache is 25% faster than GCN, ps4 pro is 4.2tflops GCN, XBSS is 4tflops RDNA2 without infinity cache, so less than 5tflops GCN. Xbox One X is 6tflops GCN... XB1X also has more ram.

That’s neither here nor there since I used the PS4 Pro to One X as a range.

Like it’ll fall somewhere between that.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Hogwarts Legacy will be releasing at a later date. I wonder if that's something related to a new switch. Honestly, the game will probably run like shit on the current switch anyway, better to watch a playthrough on youtube and set it to 240p or whatever.

The answer probably is developmental problems unrelated to new hardware. Even if it was releasing on new hardware the majority of sales, for Switch hardware, will be on the machine that “probably run like shit on.”

 

[karmitt]

Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:


Scenario 1:

Announced January 24 “join us tomorrow for a special presentation at 1PM eastern time”

Throughout March are previews from news sites with hands on.

Releases May 12th.



Scenario 2:

Nintendo announces to their audience and especially to their investors as soon as the fiscal year ends that a new platform that will succeed the Nintendo Switch family of systems will be released in this fiscal year, so FY24. More information will be available later on. (This is end of March)



Zelda releases like nothing, but people are in desperate need for information.


Nintendo announces E3 presentation (not direct verbiage), shows the new console at E3 after showing the games, a new Mario doesn’t have a date yet. New console is announced and with a date, and also gives a date to that Mario game. In stores October 2023.


News sites get their hands on it around August/ September.

Releases October with a new title (and a few others)



Scenario 3:

There’s nothing done at E3, nothing announced H1. It’s announced in early July or Late June, after the E3 Direct presentation.

And it is set to release in November 2023 with a launch title to sell the system.


Opening into 2024 with late ports. Which Nintendo doesn’t seem to mind? But that’s neither here nor there.




These are three scenarios I can think of for a 2023 release.

theres a 4th one but it is related to one, the announcement being “soon” but the rest staying the same. So yes, this year announced for May. But idk if it was right to put that there…. So it’s a secret one

Conveniently omitting any chance of a release before Zelda in your possible scenarios

 

[Z0m3le]

That seems more like speculation than a claim on Rich's part (the bolded portion of Serif's paraphrase) to me.

---

Probably the former.

Rich does believe Drake has been fabricated because of the nature of the Linux leak, so he and I seem to agree in our speculation so far.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I didn't think the online component would be so big for GTA V, although 87GB is still not small.

87GB still seems pretty damn huge considering its initial release was on 2 DVDs.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:

[snip]

1 is pretty close, but I see it going down something like this.

Manufacturing leaks are starting to come out in January, but nothing definitive. Direct is announced for February 15, and some significant insider says "Switch Pro will be launched at this Direct"

It doesn't, no hint of it. We get a pretty standard direct "focusing mostly on games launching in the first half of this year" but several H2 2023 announcements are made, new tracks for MK8DX are announced, Splatoon DLC is announced, along with a schedule for major events running into 2024.

"One more thing" - Black screen. Sound of running feet. "Wahoo!" in bounces Mario, who tosses the New Mechanic McGuffin at the screen. Screen goes black. "On Nintendo Switch, 2024".

The insiders are shamed, smug fans say obviously the Switch Pro isn't coming, and YouTuber's do frame-by-frame analysis of the new Mario teaser.

Mid March. "Join us tomorrow for a special annoucement." Koizumi bows. "We know many of you have been enjoying your Nintendo Switch. Thank you for making it such a success. Nintendo is always exploring new ways to play with both our hardware and software. It has been 6 years since the launch of the Nintendo Switch, and we're not out of ideas for it yet. We'd like to show you something we've been working on"

A Switch playing Tears of the Kingdom. Koizumi covers it with a cloth, in reference to the Switch announcement video. He pulls it away, and the Switch has been replaced with a... Nintendo Switch Deluxe, playing Tears of the Kingdom in rich ray traced glory.

Sizzle reel - it's games which already play on Switch, plus a few announced at the last direct, all looking great on the Deluxe. That's the value proposition. It plays games better. Nintendo spent the entire last direct establishing that base switch would be getting games through 2024, and not just half assed stuff either, the new 3D mario is coming. Switch is going nowhere, and the Deluxe plays those games better than ever. Nintendo then says something wild like "up to 8 hours of battery life" when playing unpatched classic switch games, and then plugs it into a 4k TV and shows a nice looking "boost mode" for Age of Calamity, offering smoother frame rates and stable resolutions. Nintendo shows no first party games that are exclusive to Deluxe.

"Now look at this" - oh shit it's Red Dead Redemption 2. It looks pretty good. Zooms out - it's looking pretty good in handheld mode. "Play wherever you want. Only on Switch Deluxe" By making the exclusive third party, Nintendo makes clear that they're continuing to support the Switch with a nice cross gen period, but the writing is on the wall. In fact, 3D Mario is classic Switch's last hurrah.

Third parties come over quick. E3 direct basically announces the last big wave of Switch games, and by the September direct, classic Switch gets the level of attention the 3DS did with Samus Returns and by February 2024, we're fully in the Deluxe era.

 

[ArchedThunder]

It's entirely dependent on when Nintendo wants to launch. If they want to launch months later than the chip itself is ready, Nvidia could easily get their own device out first. The Tegra X1 wasn't designed "for Nintendo" but it was designed with a lot of their input and with them intending to use it for the Switch, and it still released first in a Shield.

I don't particularly expect it to happen, but it could.

With it being a chip designed for Nintendo they might not legally be able to release their own device first, we don’t know what kind of contract there is.

 

[Terrell]

With it being a chip designed for Nintendo they might not legally be able to release their own device first, we don’t know what kind of contract there is.

More importantly, this is going to be a big product launch for Nintendo, using manufactured SoCs designed for Nintendo in another product before or within the launch window is deliberately short-changing Nintendo on what will be something they need as many of as possible in this precise moment. Not something you do to one of your largest corporate clients that you want to maintain business with.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Conveniently omitting any chance of a release before Zelda in your possible scenarios

I mean…. What would they even release it with? They already annoucned stuff for winter and some out of it too.

It’s not gonna be with RE4 Remake…

Or maybe you see it with Pikmin 4 but idk… seems sketchy imo. That looks more like a summer to fall title.

1 is pretty close, but I see it going down something like this.

Manufacturing leaks are starting to come out in January, but nothing definitive. Direct is announced for February 15, and some significant insider says "Switch Pro will be launched at this Direct"

It doesn't, no hint of it. We get a pretty standard direct "focusing mostly on games launching in the first half of this year" but several H2 2023 announcements are made, new tracks for MK8DX are announced, Splatoon DLC is announced, along with a schedule for major events running into 2024.

"One more thing" - Black screen. Sound of running feet. "Wahoo!" in bounces Mario, who tosses the New Mechanic McGuffin at the screen. Screen goes black. "On Nintendo Switch, 2024".

The insiders are shamed, smug fans say obviously the Switch Pro isn't coming, and YouTuber's do frame-by-frame analysis of the new Mario teaser.

Mid March. "Join us tomorrow for a special annoucement." Koizumi bows. "We know many of you have been enjoying your Nintendo Switch. Thank you for making it such a success. Nintendo is always exploring new ways to play with both our hardware and software. It has been 6 years since the launch of the Nintendo Switch, and we're not out of ideas for it yet. We'd like to show you something we've been working on"

A Switch playing Tears of the Kingdom. Koizumi covers it with a cloth, in reference to the Switch announcement video. He pulls it away, and the Switch has been replaced with a... Nintendo Switch Deluxe, playing Tears of the Kingdom in rich ray traced glory.

Sizzle reel - it's games which already play on Switch, plus a few announced at the last direct, all looking great on the Deluxe. That's the value proposition. It plays games better. Nintendo spent the entire last direct establishing that base switch would be getting games through 2024, and not just half assed stuff either, the new 3D mario is coming. Switch is going nowhere, and the Deluxe plays those games better than ever. Nintendo then says something wild like "up to 8 hours of battery life" when playing unpatched classic switch games, and then plugs it into a 4k TV and shows a nice looking "boost mode" for Age of Calamity, offering smoother frame rates and stable resolutions. Nintendo shows no first party games that are exclusive to Deluxe.

"Now look at this" - oh shit it's Red Dead Redemption 2. It looks pretty good. Zooms out - it's looking pretty good in handheld mode. "Play wherever you want. Only on Switch Deluxe" By making the exclusive third party, Nintendo makes clear that they're continuing to support the Switch with a nice cross gen period, but the writing is on the wall. In fact, 3D Mario is classic Switch's last hurrah.

Third parties come over quick. E3 direct basically announces the last big wave of Switch games, and by the September direct, classic Switch gets the level of attention the 3DS did with Samus Returns and by February 2024, we're fully in the Deluxe era.

Wait I don’t understand, are you saying 2023 or 24 here?

I don’t really know what month you see it in, or u mean May but a first time showing mid March? That’s really close tbh

Too short.

 

[LiC]

With it being a chip designed for Nintendo they might not legally be able to release their own device first, we don’t know what kind of contract there is.

Exactly, we don't know, which is why I say it's possible. It can be designed for Nintendo without it being exclusive. Or it could be exclusive except for a carveout for a specific Shield TV product.

More importantly, this is going to be a big product launch for Nintendo, using manufactured SoCs designed for Nintendo in another product before or within the launch window is deliberately short-changing Nintendo on what will be something they need as many of as possible in this precise moment. Not something you do to one of your largest corporate clients that you want to maintain business with.

I don't think Nvidia ever manufactures or sells a lot of Shield TVs. To me they seem more like a way to offset the cost of SoC development than anything.

 

[karmitt]

I mean…. What would they even release it with? They already annoucned stuff for winter and some out of it too.

You think just because they announced Zelda for May, that we already know their full lineup through then?

I don’t believe it for a second. Zelda is the exception (as it usually is), and March onward is yet to be announced.

 

[Terrell]

I don't think Nvidia ever manufactures or sells a lot of Shield TVs. To me they seem more like a way to offset the cost of SoC development than anything.

Every manufactured Shield is one less unit of new hardware. It's that simple. And since they are primarily developed as GeForce Now and Google Assistant/Android TV gateways, I doubt there's a need for a new Shield right away to begin with, so... I dunno, feels like giving Nintendo every T239 SoC they can make for the foreseeable future is the smarter play. If not the only play. If they want to do a new Shield, they can use binned Xavier chips.

 

[Gay Bowser]

I mean…. What would they even release it with? They already annoucned stuff for winter and some out of it too.

I don’t buy for a second that Nintendo’s going to go the three months between Kirby in February and Zelda in May without releasing a game. Unannounced software can exist.

If anything, the fact that they didn’t announce any software for March is eyebrow-raising – it makes me think a potential hardware launch thereabouts is more likely, not less.

It’s not gonna be with RE4 Remake…

Why not?

No, seriously, why not? Capcom and Nintendo seem to have a close relationship, they’ve released new hardware alongside a major Capcom release before (MH4G), and just look at how many times they’ve given even dusty old RE ports pride of place in Nintendo Directs. Nintendo clearly views it as a point of pride to have the series on the Switch.

If they want to launch the new hardware alongside a game that’s exclusive to it (meaning not on the existing Switch), they could certainly do a lot worse than RE4. RE also has the advantage of having little thematic overlap with Nintendo’s games; they could counterprogram the launch with pretty much any of their IP without it feeling redundant.

 

[Hermii]

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

What did he say about Switch 2?

 

[chocolate_supra]

Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:

I said this on another thread already but it's relevant here:

I see a strong possibility, since the Mario movie was going to release this holiday but got pushed back to Spring 2023, that whatever other plans Nintendo might've had to coincide with it were either moved with it, or were the cause of it moving. Namely: a new Mario game along with the Drake.

It's probably too short of a timespan but I could see a Mario game releasing with Drake in March, the Mario movie landing in April (which we already know) and then TotK launching in May with Drake support and a limited-edition Zelda-gold-trimmed Drake.

I'm probably correlating too much with the movie but it seems plausible to me with the Drake smoke starting to ramp up and the first months of the year still suspiciously quiet, and the movie moving into that span of time. Maybe Drake was going to be set for holiday (like the movie initially was) but the chip shortage caused them to delay into spring to catch up some?

 

[niconiconick64]

@ReddDreadtheLead @oldpuck @Look over there
What are the odds of Nintendo running OG switch titles on drake as docked and then just downscaling the 1080p output to a 720p screen (when in handheld) and leaving it at 1080p when docked?
I mean, it makes sense imo considering the new SoC is probably capable of handling the 540-900p typical dynamic resolution range without sipping too much power, specially at 30fps...

Speaking of retro compatibility, I remember back when we were arguing over RAM, someone mentioned something amongst the line "8 or more would be ideal for retrocompat." are you guys expecting nintendo to use some kind of emulation method to achieve it? I find that so unlikely, I heard a solution through gpu driver tweaking would be possible.

 

[karmitt]

Every manufactured Shield is one less unit of new hardware. It's that simple. And since they are primarily developed as GeForce Now and Google Assistant/Android TV gateways, I doubt there's a need for a new Shield right away to begin with, so... I dunno, feels like giving Nintendo every T239 SoC they can make for the foreseeable future is the smarter play. If not the only play. If they want to do a new Shield, they can use binned Xavier chips.

Maybe a dumb question, but would the T239 be a/the bottleneck in Switch 2 production? Your post hinges on that being the case

 

[Terrell]

Maybe a dumb question, but would the T239 be a/the bottleneck in Switch 2 production? Your post hinges on that being the case

looks at the state of the semiconductor industry and other dedicated hardware makers right now

... yeah, I'm pretty confident it will be at least one of the hardest parts to get quantities of.

 

[Bonejack]

Ok so here’s three scenarios, you pick and choose which one makes the most sense to you, try to not make it what you prefer but just what makes the most sense:


Scenario 1:

Announced January 24 “join us tomorrow for a special presentation at 1PM eastern time”

Throughout March are previews from news sites with hands on.

Releases May 12th.



Scenario 2:

Nintendo announces to their audience and especially to their investors as soon as the fiscal year ends that a new platform that will succeed the Nintendo Switch family of systems will be released in this fiscal year, so FY24. More information will be available later on. (This is end of March)



Zelda releases like nothing, but people are in desperate need for information.


Nintendo announces E3 presentation (not direct verbiage), shows the new console at E3 after showing the games, a new Mario doesn’t have a date yet. New console is announced and with a date, and also gives a date to that Mario game. In stores October 2023.


News sites get their hands on it around August/ September.

Releases October with a new title (and a few others)



Scenario 3:

There’s nothing done at E3, nothing announced H1. It’s announced in early July or Late June, after the E3 Direct presentation.

And it is set to release in November 2023 with a launch title to sell the system.


Opening into 2024 with late ports. Which Nintendo doesn’t seem to mind? But that’s neither here nor there.




These are three scenarios I can think of for a 2023 release.

theres a 4th one but it is related to one, the announcement being “soon” but the rest staying the same. So yes, this year announced for May. But idk if it was right to put that there…. So it’s a secret one

Team Scenario 1, but with an adaption.

Announcing it in January/February 2023 works as it's usually a slower phase after the holidays, and here's my adaption: Releasing in March or April.

Feb has some bigger releases, March is empty and i can't remember if there's anything for April next year, so they could drop Drake in those two months.
As the launch game, i could see them using the Prime 1 Remakester (as i'm not seeing this in 2022 anymore) and one or two 3rd party Drake exclusives.
Plus some Drake patches for evergreens and "newer" games like Xenoblade 3, Bayo 3, Fire Emblem and Pokemon.

With that, the system can have a little head-start before TotK drops, which could still be considered launch window if we're talking end of March as the earliest Drake would drop.

And to complete 2017-2, they announce a new Mario game for the holidays.

 

[karmitt]

looks at the state of the semiconductor industry and other dedicated hardware makers right now

... yeah, I'm pretty confident it will be at least one of the hardest parts to get quantities of.

Like I said, maybe it’s a stupid question, but you could have told me Nintendo could only secure half as many of some other obscure part compared to the SoC.

Edit: For instance, is Switch production experiencing challenges right now because of TX1 or something else? Does the new chip make that situation better or worse?

Anyway, you answered. It was just a bit snarky

 

[ShaunSwitch]

Every manufactured Shield is one less unit of new hardware. It's that simple. And since they are primarily developed as GeForce Now and Google Assistant/Android TV gateways, I doubt there's a need for a new Shield right away to begin with, so... I dunno, feels like giving Nintendo every T239 SoC they can make for the foreseeable future is the smarter play. If not the only play. If they want to do a new Shield, they can use binned Xavier chips.

Whilst this is true, Nvidia could use binned Drake chips to make a new shield TV. It would be a way of making use of those SoCs that didn't quite make the cut for the switch 2.

The shield is an enthusiast product and I think nvidia knows their user base uses the shield for a lot more than just streaming. There's a lot to be gained on the emulation and plex/NAS front from using a more powerful SoC. I will be one of the people lining up for a new shield.

 

[Terrell]

Whilst this is true, Nvidia could use binned Drake chips to make a new shield TV. It would be a way of making use of those SoCs that didn't quite make the cut for the switch 2.

The shield is an enthusiast product and I think nvidia knows their user base uses the shield for a lot more than just streaming. There's a lot to be gained on the emulation and plex/NAS front from using a more powerful SoC. I will be one of the people lining up for a new shield.

A possibility, yes, but it ultimately depends on how many chips end up being binned in the first place and that will be determined by what node T239 is manufactured under. The average for chips that do not meet performance targets is a low of 5% and a high of 25% (it's why the unproven allegations that PS5 SoCs were hitting a 50% bin rate were so salacious, with a last-minute GPU adjustment to claim 10TFLOPS -and hit the limits of the node - suspected as the reason, if any validity to the 50% bin rate claim exists). But not every binned chip is re-usable, some of them end up straight in the trash bin, too faulty for any use case.

But yeah, using binned chips is the only plausible way you'll see a Shield TV made from this chip in the first few years.

 

[NineTailSage]

Maybe a dumb question, but would the T239 be a/the bottleneck in Switch 2 production? Your post hinges on that being the case

looks at the state of the semiconductor industry and other dedicated hardware makers right now

... yeah, I'm pretty confident it will be at least one of the hardest parts to get quantities of.

I would say if on Samsung's 8N and a die size probably under 130-140mm², the SoC probably won't be the main cause of manufacturing issues down the road. We still aren't completely certain on how many oled displays Samsung are able to pump out, but my guess is this will be what holds manufacturing back...

Especially since the current guesstimate is the that both the current oled model and Drake will probably use the same display tech and this would divide monthly allocation between the two.

 

[ILikeFeet]

@ReddDreadtheLead @oldpuck @Look over there
What are the odds of Nintendo running OG switch titles on drake as docked and then just downscaling the 1080p output to a 720p screen (when in handheld) and leaving it at 1080p when docked?
I mean, it makes sense imo considering the new SoC is probably capable of handling the 540-900p typical dynamic resolution range without sipping too much power, specially at 30fps...

Speaking of retro compatibility, I remember back when we were arguing over RAM, someone mentioned something amongst the line "8 or more would be ideal for retrocompat." are you guys expecting nintendo to use some kind of emulation method to achieve it? I find that so unlikely, I heard a solution through gpu driver tweaking would be possible.

Pretty low, I think. For the sake of simplicity, games ask for profiles and keeping the profiles constant reduces things going wrong

 

[Deleted member 1324]

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation |ST| Nate, Drake and PS4 Pro like performance walk into a bar.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

Have I missed anything, only been skimming the past 10 days? Seen something about 8nm instead of 5nm and DF dropping hints?

Many thanks if anyone can catch me up, I had covid for the first time (flu like symptoms but I'm not going to complain considering poor people out working and the elderly had it way before the jags came). Almost 100% now just a tickly cough and I'm wearing a mask so I don't give it to others when I'm out.

I caught it from someone that was just back from a business trip in NYC. Maybe it was karma from the Nintendo Ninjas

 

[RennanNT]

Have I missed anything, only been skimming the past 10 days? Seen something about 8nm instead of 5nm and DF dropping hints?

• People found NVidia doing changes on Linux to support the T239/Drake.
• From those changes, it's very likely to have 8x A78C

• DF also commented on the above, but just a comment rather than new info it seems.

• Users on this thread made tests on Orin to better estimate how many Watts would Drake consume on 8nm
• The results were that even at the lowest GPU clocks allowed, it would consume more than the Tegra X1 did for OG Switch, even accounting battery improvements over the years. So Drake is most likely in another process node.
• These lowest clocks are quite good though, they means a minimum of ~1.3TF even on portable.

Of course, the 2 points above are assuming it's the exact same form factor and that they won't turn off part of the GPU, which is technically possible, but there's no indication of it in the stolen NVN code or a good reason to not just use a smaller GPU and raise clocks while docked.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

@RennanNT

Thanks a lot!

Is the A78C the good CPU people were hoping for?

Base Xbox One GPU (with many improvements in architecture obviously) in handheld mode and 2.6tflops GPU with DLSS on top in docked mode would be fantastic. I would be very pleased with those specs. Let's just hope they don't skimp on RAM and it really is 12gb like I heard because even then it will probably mean 8-10gb for games. If they go with 8gb then we're talking 4-6gb for games...

 

[Skittzo]

@RennanNT

Thanks a lot!

Is the A78C the good CPU people were hoping for?

Base Xbox One GPU (with many improvements in architecture obviously) in handheld mode and 2.6tflops GPU with DLSS on top in docked mode would be fantastic. I would be very pleased with those specs. Let's just hope they don't skimp on RAM and it really is 12gb like I heard because even then it will probably mean 8-10gb for games. If they go with 8gb then we're talking 4-6gb for games...

Yeah 8 A78 cores is more or less the best case we could've hoped for in terms of CPU configuration.

 

[LemonLime]

I know sales of PS4/PS5 cross platform games say otherwise (with the PS5 versions almost always outselling the PS4 versions) but I have a hard time imagining Nintendo doing a cross platform release while the switch has been so majorly successful. I feel like the switch’s large install base might make this sort of strategy a bad idea.

With BoTW launching on both Wii U and Switch it made sense, since I imagine Nintendo expected most switch buyers to have never owned a Wii U due to that system’s lower sales performance. Same with Twilight Princess on Gamecube / Wii (to which I recall they even made the Gamecube version more difficult to purchase, being an online only offering back in the days when online shopping wasn’t anything close to what it is like today”

And lastly, those two previous examples were both for consoles that had extremely similar hardware specifications. I imagine a cross platform release for a Switch/“Switch 2” game would be a little less impressive, or they would drastically have to dress up the next gen version to make it look significantly better than its switch counterpart. We are expecting this thing to be quite a leap over the switch’s specifications, right?

 

[Mr Doggo]

I know sales of PS4/PS5 cross platform games say otherwise (with the PS5 versions almost always outselling the PS4 versions) but I have a hard time imagining Nintendo doing a cross platform release while the switch has been so majorly successful. I feel like the switch’s large install base might make this sort of strategy a bad idea.

With BoTW launching on both Wii U and Switch it made sense, since I imagine Nintendo expected most switch buyers to have never owned a Wii U due to that system’s lower sales performance. Same with Twilight Princess on Gamecube / Wii (to which I recall they even made the Gamecube version more difficult to purchase, being an online only offering back in the days when online shopping wasn’t anything close to what it is like today”

And lastly, those two previous examples were both for consoles that had extremely similar hardware specifications. I imagine a cross platform release for a Switch/“Switch 2” game would be a little less impressive, or they would drastically have to dress up the next gen version to make it look significantly better than its switch counterpart. We are expecting this thing to be quite a leap over the switch’s specifications, right?

release the switch 1 version a month after the 2 version for all games

 

[PedroNavajas]

@RennanNT

Thanks a lot!

Is the A78C the good CPU people were hoping for?

Base Xbox One GPU (with many improvements in architecture obviously) in handheld mode and 2.6tflops GPU with DLSS on top in docked mode would be fantastic. I would be very pleased with those specs. Let's just hope they don't skimp on RAM and it really is 12gb like I heard because even then it will probably mean 8-10gb for games. If they go with 8gb then we're talking 4-6gb for games...

Is about the best realistic option. Is not the absolute best, but it is the best that Nintendo and nvidia can realistically use.

 

[Link_enfant]

Wait, guys, is there a timeline where Nintendo breaks internet (again?) by announcing that the Drake version of Zelda will actually release before the announced date? Like in March or April, maybe at the same time as Drake, and only later (so may 12th) for the standard Switch version.
I don't think it's likely at all but thinking about the possible reactions kind of hyped me haha

 

[mjayer]

Wait, guys, is there a timeline where Nintendo breaks internet (again?) by announcing that the Drake version of Zelda will actually release before the announced date? Like in March or April, maybe at the same time as Drake, and only later (so may 12th) for the standard Switch version.
I don't think it's likely at all but thinking about the possible reactions kind of hyped me haha

This possibility has been in the back of my mind as well. Announced date is for Switch 1 version… Switch 2 version launches with Switch 2, earlier. Probably March but super optimistically this Holiday!

This would mean though that they will be drawing a line in the sand like Sony does and not doing multi-compatibility games like Xbox. If that’s the case they may be changing up the game card some, at the very least making it incomparable with Switch 1 but perhaps still allowing backwards compatibility in the Switch 2. I don’t think they would use the same exact cards if they aren’t supported on Switch 1.

But if they do break comparability by going with something very different (and perhaps still including an extra port for Switch 1 games) what would that be? I’m not sure there are very better options that are also affordable enough for this use. Honestly I could see a case where Switch 2 games are digital only. Would be an interesting way to ease the transition… if you want the physical version you can still have it but it’s the trashy version. Would have to be to fit on the physical card. That would also mean Nintendo would need to pack in a bigger hard drive than expected though. Hopefully it starts at, at least, 512 GB.

 

[kvetcha]

release the switch 1 version a month after the 2 version for all games

This is...a terrible idea.

 

[Terrell]

I would say if on Samsung's 8N and a die size probably under 130-140mm², the SoC probably won't be the main cause of manufacturing issues down the road. We still aren't completely certain on how many oled displays Samsung are able to pump out, but my guess is this will be what holds manufacturing back...

Especially since the current guesstimate is the that both the current oled model and Drake will probably use the same display tech and this would divide monthly allocation between the two.

There's 3 other scenarios you're not considering:

1) Nintendo dislikes OLED production volume so much that the new Switch gets an LCD panel and the OLED is left alone as a "premium" product in the Switch lineup
2) Nintendo ditches the OLED Switch in the product lineup to push people towards Switch 2
3) Nintendo finds another supplier for OLED displays that can help meet their volume needs (and apply pressure to lower prices with Samsung)

Option 3 especially feels likely. As good as Samsung has been at OLED manufacturing, they have not been able to ramp production up fast enough to meet both their needs and those of others, so other companies - particularly Chinese OLED manufacturer BOE - have been catching up enough that Apple allegedly had them as their 2nd-biggest OLED supplier (behind Samsung but ahead of LG) back in 2020... at least til they caught hell for allegedly changing display specs without notifying Apple and got caught. But assuming BOE learned its lesson and understanding that the spec requirements are much smaller for displays with lower pixel density like Switch (or the next Switch), there's an opportunity to open up to additional OLED suppliers.

But you shouldn't totally rule out Options 1 or 2, either.

 

[kvetcha]

There's 3 other scenarios you're not considering:

1) Nintendo dislikes OLED production volume so much that the new Switch gets an LCD panel and the OLED is left alone as a "premium" product in the Switch lineup
2) Nintendo ditches the OLED Switch in the product lineup to push people towards Switch 2
3) Nintendo finds another supplier for OLED displays that can help meet their volume needs (and apply pressure to lower prices with Samsung)

Option 3 especially feels likely. As good as Samsung has been at OLED manufacturing, they have not been able to ramp production up fast enough to meet both their needs and those of others, so other companies - particularly Chinese OLED manufacturer BOE - have been catching up enough that Apple allegedly had them as their 2nd-biggest OLED supplier (behind Samsung but ahead of LG) back in 2020... at least til they caught hell for allegedly changing display specs without notifying Apple and got caught. But assuming BOE learned its lesson and understanding that the spec requirements are much smaller for displays with lower pixel density like Switch (or the next Switch), there's an opportunity to open up to additional OLED suppliers.

But you shouldn't totally rule out Options 1 or 2, either.

"OH GREAT, DISPLAY LOTTERY"

But yes, finding another provider would make the most sense unless Nintendo is going full mad-lad and just replacing the OLED model, as you say.

 

[Mr Doggo]

This is...a terrible idea.

Didnt they do that with twilight princess

 

[Link_enfant]

Please, no display lottery EVER again. The New 3DS lottery with IPS panels was a nightmare and while I got a nice Hyrule edition, it still doesn't have IPS on the touch screen.
I remember I ordered and sent back units at least 3 times because I just wanted a good display, it's so ridiculous