StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Nintendojitsu]

I can't wait until this 'Chicken Little' phase passes and everyone can look back and laugh about it like I am laughing now.

 

[mjayer]

When do you think we'll see the announcement of this thing? January being the earliest?

There's still a chance that they'll reveal it in 2022, and possibly even do a Holiday release. If they don't reveal by the end of October than I'll recant, until then I'm a believer.

 

[Raccoon]

There's still a chance that they'll reveal it in 2022, and possibly even do a Holiday release. If they don't reveal by the end of October than I'll recant, until then I'm a believer.

blisteringly based

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

So, this is a good place to do it.


People believe that the system will launch in May 2023 right? Because of ZELDA correct?


Let’s assume this scenario only for curiosity sake: May 12 happens and there is no new system. Thus, Zelda did not launch with Switch 2/Pro.

June13-16 is E3, Nintendo announces a few games, a few are set for holiday but not given a date.

June after E3/July Nintendo announces new system set in stores for holiday 2023.


Here’s what I want to know, I want a list of games (read: IPs) that can realistically be launched title software for this new platform if it isn’t Tears of the Kingdom. Because it could launch with a new 2D or 3D Mario, right? Those are huge selling titles.


Would Metroid Prime HD set for holiday 2023 make sense?

Tomodachi Life?

A brand new IP?

New Donkey Kong?

Splatoon and Zelda are out of the question, Pokemon may also be out of the question too, Fire Emblem is out of the question too. Mario Kart I don’t see as that is still getting software support by then…


Like if it were to release in H2 2023, what would be the title to release with?



I’m asking it here because the community here is filled with very passionate Nintendo fans who know more about their intellectual properties in a sense of a launch system software than I do, so I’m more curious on what your thoughts are if it does release on the second half of 2023, as in what on earth would even release it with if it was to set for that time. And it doesn’t release with Zelda in May. Because I know some people do believe that the second half 2023 or even 2024 makes more sense but I’m also drawing a blank on what software it would release with, you feel me?


So to try to actually analyze it from a perspective that is important for the discussion we have to actually pinpoint and narrow down what are the most possible release titles for this system.


And I’d like to remind people that the previous time a Zelda was cross generation, the following 3D Zelda was not cross-generation, and a successor released a year after, but it bombed. Also, in that previous time that they released a Zelda as a cross generation title, the original platform bombed, but the following platform was a massive success.

Of course, I don’t see TOTK being exclusive, but just that it isn’t always indicative of when a hardware will launch.

But if we narrow it down we can get a better idea I think of what can actually launch with it.


I know people say they have loads of options but when you put it into perspective they don’t really have that many….

and not releasing with Zelda would be sorta missed opportunity, even if they have a massive install base, there are perks the Pro/Succ/2/Dogwalker can get over the base




TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

 

[YolkFolk]

So, this is a good place to do it.


People believe that the system will launch in May 2023 right? Because of ZELDA correct?


Let’s assume this scenario only for curiosity sake: May 12 happens and there is no new system. Thus, Zelda did not launch with Switch 2/Pro.

June13-16 is E3, Nintendo announces a few games, a few are set for holiday but not given a date.

June after E3/July Nintendo announces new system set in stores for holiday 2023.


Here’s what I want to know, I want a list of games (read: IPs) that can realistically be launched title software for this new platform if it isn’t Tears of the Kingdom. Because it could launch with a new 2D or 3D Mario, right? Those are huge selling titles.


Would Metroid Prime HD set for holiday 2023 make sense?

Tomodachi Life?

A brand new IP?

New Donkey Kong?

Splatoon and Zelda are out of the question, Pokemon may also be out of the question too, Fire Emblem is out of the question too. Mario Kart I don’t see as that is still getting software support by then…


Like if it were to release in H2 2023, what would be the title to release with?



I’m asking it here because the community here is filled with very passionate Nintendo fans who know more about their intellectual properties in a sense of a launch system software than I do, so I’m more curious on what your thoughts are if it does release on the second half of 2023, as in what on earth would even release it with if it was to set for that time. And it doesn’t release with Zelda in May. Because I know some people do believe that the second half 2023 or even 2024 makes more sense but I’m also drawing a blank on what software it would release with, you feel me?


So to try to actually analyze it from a perspective that is important for the discussion we have to actually pinpoint and narrow down what are the most possible release titles for this system.


And I’d like to remind people that the previous time a Zelda was cross generation, the following 3D Zelda was not cross-generation, and a successor released a year after, but it bombed. Also, in that previous time that they released a Zelda as a cross generation title, the original platform bombed, but the following platform was a massive success.

Of course, I don’t see TOTK being exclusive, but just that it isn’t always indicative of when a hardware will launch.

But if we narrow it down we can get a better idea I think of what can actually launch with it.


I know people say they have loads of options but when you put it into perspective they don’t really have that many….

and not releasing with Zelda would be sorta missed opportunity, even if they have a massive install base, there are perks the Pro/Succ/2/Dogwalker can get over the base

If it doesn’t launch before or with TotK then I’d say launching with the next 3D Mario game could be the most likely scenario - that’s if Nintendo did choose to release the new hardware alongside a big first party title. The next Metroid Prime game could also be an option depending on where it is in development. Prime 4 wouldn’t do gangbuster sales but the new hardware could elevate them if the game is a technical showcase for what the new system can do.

Personally I’ll be amazed if the new system isn’t released before or alongside TotK though. Nintendo will want the game to look as great as possible and if new hardware is due that same year it would be absolutely bizarre to not have them together for the release of TotK.

If the new hardware comes before TotK then I’d love to see it launch alongside a big third party experience like RDR2. That would instantly send out the message to the public about just how powerful this new system is and how it stands out from the past Switch. It’s potential success could also lead to more third parties looking to publish games on the new system as well.

 

[ILikeFeet]

TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

some unannounced game we don't know about

 

[Brofield]

you can get the game digitally, I think. but it's through a round about way

Is it possible to do this on an unmodded Switch? I would do sinful things to be able to not have to swap out game cartridges for a game like RFA that I only play two or three times a week for an hour at a time.

Also hoping that if/when RFA2 drops they offer the game digital and physical while reusing the leg strap and ring con

 

[ILikeFeet]

Is it possible to do this on an unmodded Switch? I would do sinful things to be able to not have to swap out game cartridges for a game like RFA that I only play two or three times a week for an hour at a time.

Also hoping that if/when RFA2 drops they offer the game digital and physical while reusing the leg strap and ring con

if I remember correctly, it was a Japan only thing where you could buy the game digitally and they'd ship you the ring con and leg strap. don't know if they still offer this

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

some unannounced game we don't know about

I mean, yes. But I meant from what IP. What IP would be able to deliver a good new title to launch the system with? Would it be a new unknown IP? Or an established IP? Would it be one of their lower sellers? Would it be what has traditionally been a system seller?

Like we can have a discussion of what it can launch with, but we also have to make it clear. If it’s something that’s feasible or reasonable and realistic to launch with for what (some) people believe is a whole successor around these parts lately.


For example, do people expect 1 2 switch 2: the horse manure game, to be a good launch title to go with a system? Would it be by itself? With another game?


They can launch the system with any title, but not every title is good to launch the system with, you feel me?


Actually, it’s probable that they’ll do two games instead of one. For example, Sony released the PlayStation5 with demons soul remake and Miles morales. Now, demon soul is the low seller but set a tone for the platform I think, but miles morales is actually the big seller that appeals to the wider audience.


(I narrowed to first party titles since 3rd is too hard)

 

[Brofield]

if I remember correctly, it was a Japan only thing where you could buy the game digitally and they'd ship you the ring con and leg strap. don't know if they still offer this

Ahh damn, c'est la vie. Wish I could just get it on my Switch internal storage and just keep the cartridge elsewhere so I didn't have to swap constantly between Monster Hunter and RFA (RIP the last of the Amazon E3 pre-order savings, otherwise I would have gone digital for MHR)

 

[niconiconick64]

@ReddDreadtheLead @oldpuck @Look over there
So about that geekbench 5 score for the 12 core Orin SoC @ 2.2 GHz...
What would be a good estimate for the 8 core version at half the clock, taking into consideration how other A78 SoCs scale with clock speed and core count?

 

[AxkilAvenger]

That Star Wars game from Zynga which was rumoured to be for switch pro got its date change to just 2023 in the coming soon section in the eshop. Once they put a real date in, that’ll be switch 2 launch day I feel

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

@ReddDreadtheLead @oldpuck @Look over there
So about that geekbench 5 score for the 12 core Orin SoC @ 2.2 GHz...
What would be a good estimate for the 8 core version at half the clock, taking into consideration how other A78 SoCs scale with clock speed and core count?

Well, I can do an 8 core theoretical estimate, but only 7 cores would be usable.


But in theory, 2,179 MT and 380ST (7 cores)

Give or take.


2490MT if 8 cores.

 

[AR15mex]

So I heard Nate's Podcast the other day and he mentioned that the Nvidia leak for 239 did not mean anything for drake, but potentially speaking I remember another user on the leak tread mentioned the following,

That the CPU will be more powerful than PS4

THE GPU will be a little more powerfule than the Series S

Are these good assumptions based on Kopite leak and all other stuff that we have gether through the years?

 

[Deleted member 887]

This is a really good video, with lots of stuff to talk about. I have to take the L here on DLSS 3.0. It's clear that it is frame interpolation, and that the "no latency" claims are because of next gen Nvidia Reflex (which frame generation requires) which tries to get enough latency wins that the additional frame buffering is net zero cost.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

So I heard Nate's Podcast the other day and he mentioned that the Nvidia leak for 239 did not mean anything for drake, but potentially speaking I remember another user on the leak tread mentioned the following,

That the CPU will be more powerful than PS4

A lot more powerful, but that’s not the high bar really. PS4 was the weakest console in terms of the GPU.

THE GPU will be a little more powerfule than the Series S

Wait, hold on. Pull it back in. Something like PS4 Pro to One X (with DLSS) I think.

Are these good assumptions based on Kopite leak and all other stuff that we have gether through the years?

no

 

[niconiconick64]

Well, I can do an 8 core theoretical estimate, but only 7 cores would be usable.


But in theory, 2,179 MT and 380ST (7 cores)

Give or take.


2490MT if 8 cores.

I thought MT would be considerably higher, no? iirc more than on x86, ARM has even lower diminishing returns when bumping clock speed. I might be wrong though.

 

[Skittzo]

I can't wait until this 'Chicken Little' phase passes and everyone can look back and laugh about it like I am laughing now.

What are you referring to here?

 

[Serif]

So I heard Nate's Podcast the other day and he mentioned that the Nvidia leak for 239 did not mean anything for drake

We are pretty confident that T239 is Drake. See the threadmark labelled NVN.

The Nvidia information about 8 cores on T239 wasn't really a leak, it was open source work regarding the Linux kernel and T239. They're mostly likely reusing the chip they designed for Nintendo in a separate Nvidia product. So there's not going to be anything Nintendo specific in that commit. However, it still gives us information about T239 that would most likely apply to any variation of the chip, whether it's a Switch or Nvidia Shield.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I mean, yes. But I meant from what IP. What IP would be able to deliver a good new title to launch the system with? Would it be a new unknown IP? Or an established IP? Would it be one of their lower sellers? Would it be what has traditionally been a system seller?

Like we can have a discussion of what it can launch with, but we also have to make it clear. If it’s something that’s feasible or reasonable and realistic to launch with for what (some) people believe is a whole successor around these parts lately.


For example, do people expect 1 2 switch 2: the horse manure game, to be a good launch title to go with a system? Would it be by itself? With another game?


They can launch the system with any title, but not every title is good to launch the system with, you feel me?


Actually, it’s probable that they’ll do two games instead of one. For example, Sony released the PlayStation5 with demons soul remake and Miles morales. Now, demon soul is the low seller but set a tone for the platform I think, but miles morales is actually the big seller that appeals to the wider audience.


(I narrowed to first party titles since 3rd is too hard)

the inherent problem here is that we'd be speculating unknown unknown. at that point you can literally invent anything. "a good launch title would be a new AAA cinematic IP" for example, is just as likely as anything else.

This is a really good video, with lots of stuff to talk about. I have to take the L here on DLSS 3.0. It's clear that it is frame interpolation, and that the "no latency" claims are because of next gen Nvidia Reflex (which frame generation requires) which tries to get enough latency wins that the additional frame buffering is net zero cost.

Nvidia clarified that there's half a frame of added latency

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I thought MT would be considerably higher, no? iirc more than on x86, ARM has even lower diminishing returns when bumping clock speed. I might be wrong though.

When judging using the Geekbench, it never translates exactly to the MT score.

For example, the GB5 numbers that nvidia posted has ST at 754 and the MT at 7773.

It has 12 cores. But doesn’t offer 12x the ST score.

I averaged it to 82% of whatever the core count multiplied by the ST score is. But originally it was a 75% and another score was like 86-87%.

It could be higher or it could be lower. We don’t have enough data to make any conclusion though I’m afraid.


So the score is as how I posted above most likely.


I’m going to use this as an example:

NVIDIA Jetson Xavier NX Developer Kit - Geekbench

Benchmark results for a NVIDIA Jetson Xavier NX Developer Kit with an ARMv8 processor.

browser.geekbench.com

ST is 473 and MT is 2307.


It has 6 cores and it is clocked to 1.91GHz

Despite having 6 cores, its score isn’t 2838, it’s 81% of that. It’s 2307

And this is a common trend I have seen across several different examples. MT scores are not “ xST score * y-Cores”

The common average across all of these I’ve seen is about 80% of whatever the “xST score multiplied by the number of core score is”

 

[YolkFolk]

So I heard Nate's Podcast the other day and he mentioned that the Nvidia leak for 239 did not mean anything for drake, but potentially speaking I remember another user on the leak tread mentioned the following,

That the CPU will be more powerful than PS4

THE GPU will be a little more powerfule than the Series S

Are these good assumptions based on Kopite leak and all other stuff that we have gether through the years?

Set your expectations for the GPU at PS4 level. DLSS will then get visuals to around PS4 Pro level. Anything else would be a bonus.

 

[Mr Swine]

I hope Nintendo doesn’t wait until E3 next year to announce new hardware. I want it as soon as possible

 

[Concernt]

I hope Nintendo doesn’t wait until E3 next year to announce new hardware. I want it as soon as possible

They won't

 

[LoneRanger]

Maybe their classic ~40 minute February is being split in 2 parts of 20 minutes each.

1) Direct pre-Switch4k reveal, mostly focus on low/mid budget titles (example Mario Baseball or Tomadochi), updates for 2022 games (like Switch Sports or Splatoon 3) and ports/remasters/remakes (like F-Zero GX)
2) Direct post Switch4k reveal, with gameplay of their 2023 games like Zelda Totk or Pikmin 4, exclusive 4k model software, including various third party ports.

 

[mariodk18]

I think they’ll reveal Drake anytime after the launch of FE engage and before the end of their fiscal year.

 

[Thugstas]

I think they’ll reveal Drake anytime after the launch of FE engage and before the end of their fiscal year.

Revealing it in Jan through March 2023 won’t affect switch sales . So yeah if the release window is in may they will do it in the last trimester

 

[ShadowFox08]

So, this is a good place to do it.


People believe that the system will launch in May 2023 right? Because of ZELDA correct?


Let’s assume this scenario only for curiosity sake: May 12 happens and there is no new system. Thus, Zelda did not launch with Switch 2/Pro.

June13-16 is E3, Nintendo announces a few games, a few are set for holiday but not given a date.

June after E3/July Nintendo announces new system set in stores for holiday 2023.


Here’s what I want to know, I want a list of games (read: IPs) that can realistically be launched title software for this new platform if it isn’t Tears of the Kingdom. Because it could launch with a new 2D or 3D Mario, right? Those are huge selling titles.


Would Metroid Prime HD set for holiday 2023 make sense?

Tomodachi Life?

A brand new IP?

New Donkey Kong?

Splatoon and Zelda are out of the question, Pokemon may also be out of the question too, Fire Emblem is out of the question too. Mario Kart I don’t see as that is still getting software support by then…


Like if it were to release in H2 2023, what would be the title to release with?



I’m asking it here because the community here is filled with very passionate Nintendo fans who know more about their intellectual properties in a sense of a launch system software than I do, so I’m more curious on what your thoughts are if it does release on the second half of 2023, as in what on earth would even release it with if it was to set for that time. And it doesn’t release with Zelda in May. Because I know some people do believe that the second half 2023 or even 2024 makes more sense but I’m also drawing a blank on what software it would release with, you feel me?


So to try to actually analyze it from a perspective that is important for the discussion we have to actually pinpoint and narrow down what are the most possible release titles for this system.


And I’d like to remind people that the previous time a Zelda was cross generation, the following 3D Zelda was not cross-generation, and a successor released a year after, but it bombed. Also, in that previous time that they released a Zelda as a cross generation title, the original platform bombed, but the following platform was a massive success.

Of course, I don’t see TOTK being exclusive, but just that it isn’t always indicative of when a hardware will launch.

But if we narrow it down we can get a better idea I think of what can actually launch with it.


I know people say they have loads of options but when you put it into perspective they don’t really have that many….

and not releasing with Zelda would be sorta missed opportunity, even if they have a massive install base, there are perks the Pro/Succ/2/Dogwalker can get over the base




TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

New Mario.

I am semi expecting MP4 to be released end of year.

 

[Instro]

Switch U launching with New Super Mario Bros U 2 and Nintendo Land 2.

 

[manfromthedam]

This is a really good video, with lots of stuff to talk about. I have to take the L here on DLSS 3.0. It's clear that it is frame interpolation, and that the "no latency" claims are because of next gen Nvidia Reflex (which frame generation requires) which tries to get enough latency wins that the additional frame buffering is net zero cost.

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

 

[robertman2]

So my launch day switch has been making weird noises from the fan, praying it can hold out till Drake releases. I have noticed some performance issues in MHR that were not there before so must be throttling in docked mode. Took an old electric toothbrush to the rear vents as they did seem a bit blocked so hopefully that's enough.

How many of you have a creaking day 1 switch that is just holding on to life whilst you wait for Drake?

Me. My Switch is in rough shape lol

 

[karmitt]

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

yes indeed DLSS 4.0 for Switch 2 lfg

I actually don't know which claim you're talking about... :[

 

[AxkilAvenger]

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

What was his claim. I’m on the bus right now and don’t want to fiddle with YouTube

 

[Deleted member 887]

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Which claim?

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

I’m not sure DLSS 3.0 would be a huge win on Drake, honestly. Cool, yes, but I don’t think the benefits would be as deep as 2.0, and I think the Nvidia Reflex component would require a substantial overhaul to make sense in a console environment.

 

[Serif]

yes indeed DLSS 4.0 for Switch 2 lfg

I actually don't know which claim you're talking about... :[

Paraphrasing - "if there are Linux submissions being made, the chip may be out of pre-production and entering fabrication. We may be looking at the Switch next year tied with Tears of the Kingdom. Nintendo is all about power-efficiency and don't expect it to be clocked high but it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1."

Stopped listening after there, probably missed something but the rest of the discussion seemed focused on DLSS 3.0.

Seems like reasonable guesses though the part about "it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1" sounded particularly less speculative.

 

[karmitt]

Paraphrasing - "if there are Linux submissions being made, the chip may be out of pre-production and entering fabrication. We may be looking at the Switch next year tied with Tears of the Kingdom. Nintendo is all about power-efficiency and don't expect it to be clocked high but it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1."

Stopped listening after there, probably missed something but the rest of the discussion seemed focused on DLSS 3.0.

Seems like reasonable guesses though the part about "it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1" sounded particularly less speculative.

Gotcha.

the first bit on entering fabrication is what many here were taking from that Linux submission I think.

the Tears timing is kind of unrelated guesswork which keeps happening because it’s the only notable post-January title we know about.

 

[LiC]

All this enthusiasm over the Linux commit's supposed implications for production timeline is really going to pay off when Nvidia announces and releases a T239-powered Shield TV before we see the new Switch model.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I mean, yes. But I meant from what IP. What IP would be able to deliver a good new title to launch the system with? Would it be a new unknown IP? Or an established IP? Would it be one of their lower sellers? Would it be what has traditionally been a system seller?

Like we can have a discussion of what it can launch with, but we also have to make it clear. If it’s something that’s feasible or reasonable and realistic to launch with for what (some) people believe is a whole successor around these parts lately.


For example, do people expect 1 2 switch 2: the horse manure game, to be a good launch title to go with a system? Would it be by itself? With another game?


They can launch the system with any title, but not every title is good to launch the system with, you feel me?


Actually, it’s probable that they’ll do two games instead of one. For example, Sony released the PlayStation5 with demons soul remake and Miles morales. Now, demon soul is the low seller but set a tone for the platform I think, but miles morales is actually the big seller that appeals to the wider audience.


(I narrowed to first party titles since 3rd is too hard)

Following this though experiment…

Zelda and 3D Mario will move units because they’re gonna sell period. However, the GameCube and the WiiU were not huge hits - “why would I buy the next system to play this” wasn’t a huge question because for most folks they didn’t have the last one

Drake isn’t in the same boat, I think it makes sense to launch with a game that looks substantially better on it, or is an exclusive. I think the pitch is the same as the original Switch - “I can’t believe I’m playing these games in my hand.”

I also think that Nintendo’s “launch” slate could include as many as half a dozen lightly updated games that mean even with only one exclusive there will be several games that play better on the handheld.

Meaning I think the “exclusive” could potentially be a more obscure bit of IP. A showcase title that even if you’re not into it, let’s you see what the device is capable of, and since it’s a niche IP, can be a success even if it is only a modest seller, without sacrificing a big IP to Drake exclusivity.

My proposals then: a Drake only Astral Chain 2 or F-Zero.

Astral Chain is a gorgeous, modest selling game that says “Switch id for hardcore gamers.” An RT, high res, high frame rate follow up would be the sort of thing that would make a huge splash and that would attract the eyes of folks who are hardcore gamers but have stayed off the Switch.

F Zero has a history of being a technical showcase, and Drake would provide an excuse to lean into the things that F Zero does that MK doesn’t - blistering speed, pure racing, a radically different aesthetic, and maybe a story mode?

 

[manfromthedam]

yes indeed DLSS 4.0 for Switch 2 lfg

I actually don't know which claim you're talking about... :[

What was his claim. I’m on the bus right now and don’t want to fiddle with YouTube

Which claim?


I’m not sure DLSS 3.0 would be a huge win on Drake, honestly. Cool, yes, but I don’t think the benefits would be as deep as 2.0, and I think the Nvidia Reflex component would require a substantial overhaul to make sense in a console environment.

That TotK is physically TOO BIG FOR SWITCH.

Sorry, I just meant Rich sounding quite confident on Switch 2 releasing next year, likely together with Zelda. Not mindblowing for this thread of course, but Rich is opening up a little about Switch 2 the past couple of DF Directs - which is meaningful because he usually shuts Nintendo speculation right down.

Just thought that was neat .

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

I think an asterisk is needed here, that he’s just speculating here and hasn’t actually looked into the information.

 

[Serif]

"As always, remember, Nintendo is all about power efficiency and don't expect this thing to be running at massive clocks, but it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1".

Whether or not Rich is making an informed guess from the Nvidia leak, or has access to more information, it's nice to hear this from DF.

 

[Terrell]

Considering everyone's now talking about Game Cards, I wonder where Nintendo could use Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND technology, given the news/rumours.

I wonder if they're already being used for current cards

Last I heard, that’s a no, still ASIC XtraROM, which does not utilize NAND flash.
48-layer 3D NAND isn’t all that great by modern standards (I think 96-layer was already in production/use by 2019).
My guess is that Nintendo would have been looking to investigate the cost-benefit analysis and alleged energy savings of 3D NAND on a bunch of different I/O configurations (eMMC vs. eUFS) compared to 2D NAND and any order they supposedly put in could be repurposed for preliminary dev kits regardless.

 

[RainTech]

So, this is a good place to do it.


People believe that the system will launch in May 2023 right? Because of ZELDA correct?


Let’s assume this scenario only for curiosity sake: May 12 happens and there is no new system. Thus, Zelda did not launch with Switch 2/Pro.

June13-16 is E3, Nintendo announces a few games, a few are set for holiday but not given a date.

June after E3/July Nintendo announces new system set in stores for holiday 2023.


Here’s what I want to know, I want a list of games (read: IPs) that can realistically be launched title software for this new platform if it isn’t Tears of the Kingdom. Because it could launch with a new 2D or 3D Mario, right? Those are huge selling titles.


Would Metroid Prime HD set for holiday 2023 make sense?

Tomodachi Life?

A brand new IP?

New Donkey Kong?

Splatoon and Zelda are out of the question, Pokemon may also be out of the question too, Fire Emblem is out of the question too. Mario Kart I don’t see as that is still getting software support by then…


Like if it were to release in H2 2023, what would be the title to release with?



I’m asking it here because the community here is filled with very passionate Nintendo fans who know more about their intellectual properties in a sense of a launch system software than I do, so I’m more curious on what your thoughts are if it does release on the second half of 2023, as in what on earth would even release it with if it was to set for that time. And it doesn’t release with Zelda in May. Because I know some people do believe that the second half 2023 or even 2024 makes more sense but I’m also drawing a blank on what software it would release with, you feel me?


So to try to actually analyze it from a perspective that is important for the discussion we have to actually pinpoint and narrow down what are the most possible release titles for this system.


And I’d like to remind people that the previous time a Zelda was cross generation, the following 3D Zelda was not cross-generation, and a successor released a year after, but it bombed. Also, in that previous time that they released a Zelda as a cross generation title, the original platform bombed, but the following platform was a massive success.

Of course, I don’t see TOTK being exclusive, but just that it isn’t always indicative of when a hardware will launch.

But if we narrow it down we can get a better idea I think of what can actually launch with it.


I know people say they have loads of options but when you put it into perspective they don’t really have that many….

and not releasing with Zelda would be sorta missed opportunity, even if they have a massive install base, there are perks the Pro/Succ/2/Dogwalker can get over the base




TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

Of course 100% speculation on my part. But i think they'll release it holiday 23. The "Cross Gen big release" isn't going to be Tears Of The Kingdom (Wich will get patched for Drake) but Metroid Prime 4. Propably hoping MP4 will get a massive boost in popularity as Zelda got with releasing with the Switch. Pre-Switch/BoTW Zelda never pulled in numbers like it did.

 

[nenned]

base[/ispoiler]




TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

Obviously not all of these, but a combination of several of these:

Super Mario (2d or 3d)- EPD Kyoto or Tokyo respectively)
Donkey Kong- EPD Tokyo
Metroid Prime 4- Retro Studios
Pikmin 4- EPD Kyoto
Ring Fit Adventure 2- EPD Kyoto
Captain Toad II- NST
Astral Chain 2- Platinum Games
Long-rumored Monolithsoft Action RPG
A remaster (Kid Icarus?)- Bandai Namco Studios
Star Wars: Jedi Warriors- Koei Tecmo- Maybe Nintendo rewards KT for all their development assistance by paying for the Star Wars license so they can make their dream game- this one is reaching- I know
Nintendogs- EPD Kyoto
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon- Spike Chunsoft

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Metroid Prime 4.

I can tell you with confidence it will not be that.

 

[karmitt]

TL;DR: if it doesn’t release with Zelda what other IP do you think is actually realistic or plausible for an H2 release?

Zelda is arguably one of the most anticipated titles of the decade, surely something else must be in the works that's suitable for a launch, because that's an incredibly high bar for launches otherwise...

I can appreciate the simplicity, comfort and familiarity behind choosing Zelda's date for the hardware, but isn't 'launch window' just as important for the console's success? Zelda was key to giving Switch an incredible running start after the failure of the Wii U, but they had all of the following lined up in the months after:

• April - Mario Kart 8 DX
• May - Minecraft
• June - ARMS
• July - Splatoon 2

Unlike the Switch, this system doesn't need Zelda to give it the running start, at least not in the first month; It's going to sell out for countless reasons, among them being that the hardware itself is already proven, and remains compelling and mostly unchallenged in it's position, which is more than can be said about previous generations. They just aren't in remotely the same position as they were launching previous hardware.

Nintendo has not yet given us a view of what's planned for March-May outside of Zelda, and it's assuredly not going to remain empty. On top of this, there's the supposed wave of third party titles that'll be supporting the platform (re: Bloomberg) that we've not heard about yet - at least I assume it's nothing we saw in the September Direct. The following seems just as viable in my mind.

• March
  • TBD First Party - DK/Metroid?
  • Promoted 4K/60 FPS patches for evergreens, select third party titles
  • TBD Third Party - RE4, etc.
• April - ??
• May - Tears of the Kingdom

Tears of the Kingdom would guarantee pulling the system back to the front of the conversation, perhaps aligned with a second wave of consoles on the shelf.

I don't know why I'm willing to die on this hill. I'm obviously hoping it releases even sooner than May so that titles start supporting it sooner, but I genuinely do believe pinning it to Zelda is mostly because it's the convenient choice right now

 

[ArchedThunder]

All this enthusiasm over the Linux commit's supposed implications for production timeline is really going to pay off when Nvidia announces and releases a T239-powered Shield TV before we see the new Switch model.

Very unlikely since the chip is made for Nintendo. A Shield TV using it would almost certainly come after the Switch 4k itself.

 

[Dakhil]

This is a really good video, with lots of stuff to talk about. I have to take the L here on DLSS 3.0. It's clear that it is frame interpolation, and that the "no latency" claims are because of next gen Nvidia Reflex (which frame generation requires) which tries to get enough latency wins that the additional frame buffering is net zero cost.

Yeah, that's a substantial claim about Switch 2 coming from Rich.

Real curious what the frame interpolation will do. It's not entirely a lost cause it seems and it'd be to framerate what DLSS is to resolution, giving Switch 2 another ace up it's sleeve.

Paraphrasing - "if there are Linux submissions being made, the chip may be out of pre-production and entering fabrication. We may be looking at the Switch next year tied with Tears of the Kingdom. Nintendo is all about power-efficiency and don't expect it to be clocked high but it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1."

Stopped listening after there, probably missed something but the rest of the discussion seemed focused on DLSS 3.0.

Seems like reasonable guesses though the part about "it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1" sounded particularly less speculative.

That seems more like speculation than a claim on Rich's part (the bolded portion of Serif's paraphrase) to me.

---

"As always, remember, Nintendo is all about power efficiency and don't expect this thing to be running at massive clocks, but it will obviously be a generational leap over Tegra X1".

Whether or not Rich is making an informed guess from the Nvidia leak, or has access to more information, it's nice to hear this from DF.

Probably the former.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

That TotK is physically TOO BIG FOR SWITCH.

Sorry, I just meant Rich sounding quite confident on Switch 2 releasing next year, likely together with Zelda. Not mindblowing for this thread of course, but Rich is opening up a little about Switch 2 the past couple of DF Directs - which is meaningful because he usually shuts Nintendo speculation right down.

Just thought that was neat .

I listened to it once i got home. didn't hear anything bout Tears Of The Kingdom (must've missed it) but i liked his chat about T239 being a generational leap. He seems to be subtly dropping hints/info and i'm hoping he continues over the coming weeks. We are so o close now!

 

[Foltzie]

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation |ST| DF confirms DLSS 3.0 ;-)