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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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chocolate_supra said:
Me taking my 2witch to meet @Raccoon in the park for some Mario Kart X:

u3dIR0t.jpeg

yes this is basically the same joke as last time but I'm having fun
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@Raccoon is gonna need some bigger pockets
 
Concernt said:
Due to the inclusion of taxes in European pricing, and exclusion from American pricing, I expect the price to be €399/$399 or €449/$449.

Also ¥39000 is ≈ $250, there's no way there's a 200USD discount for Japan. While the economy is different, I could see as much as ¥69000 in Japan, but I think ¥59000 is more likely.

There's no likely path for Nintendo to make anything but a miserable loss every unit trying to sell the device at ¥39000 when production and shipping is broadly paid for in USD.

¥39000 yen is currently €230 - the price of a Nintendo Switch Lite in Europe.
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So one thing Nintendo probably fears is sales collapse in Japan with the Switch 2. Given how lucrative that market has been the whole Switch era and the strong market position they have built there. But the weak yen have put Nintendo in a hard place when it comes to Switch 2 in Japan.
 
Concernt said:
Due to the inclusion of taxes in European pricing, and exclusion from American pricing, I expect the price to be €399/$399 or €449/$449.

Also ¥39000 is ≈ $250, there's no way there's a 200USD discount for Japan. While the economy is different, I could see as much as ¥69000 in Japan, but I think ¥59000 is more likely.

There's no likely path for Nintendo to make anything but a miserable loss every unit trying to sell the device at ¥39000 when production and shipping is broadly paid for in USD.
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Yeah if you go for the direct exchange it sounds indeed weird, but I went looking for the exchange in 2017 and it was 1 euro = 120.83 yen ca. Switch MSRP was ¥27000 and back then it translated to €223 ca (MSRP in Europe was €330), so with this info in mind imo it isn't too far fetched
 
navierStokes said:
The latest findings that have been determined by some through following shipment data is done very meticulously, continuously questioning what's found and the conversation that sparks from that. I think some even have to paid a subscription to track all the data.
Moreover, it's done by people who have been consistently contributing discussion to the thread and unless someone felt like trolling, I'll believe what's being found as from what I've read and trying to speculate; it lines up with what I think is feasible to end up in the console.

You don't have to believe tbh. Like no joke, if you want to overestimate or underestimate based on any speculation that's made here, at the end of the day the product will be like it is at release. Nintendo's decisions are not relevant to any speculations here. So even if there are conclusions made on fake info, it just impacts the online discussion here at Fami or elsewhere, which depending on your mental state may be a rip in your universe or just another thing that happened.

Moreover, what you will find is, probably the most cohesive collection and documentation about the speculation of a new console that you can go through. Part of that is especially due to the NVIDIA leak and there's been a fair share of "outside" speculation being brought in here, which continuously caused discussion with different conclusions.
In the end it can all be different from the reality the overall thread may be concluding on.
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There should be a threadmark about this. I follow this thread for a long time and never heard about people checking this kind of info. Even where they go to get was never commented here before.
 
Curious to see if NG Switch will give us an option to play games in Graphics/Performance mode or Nintendo will be strict and force games to only run in a particular mode.
 
Notsowise said:
There should be a threadmark about this. I follow this thread for a long time and never heard about people checking this kind of info. Even where they go to get was never commented here before.
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I'm actually not sure how threadmarks work.

Does one request mods to make one, or does the OP need to do it? Because there are several in my bookmark list (made by other brilliant minds here) that I think probably would serve as good threadmarks.

I start bookmarking stuff not too long after I find it tedious to search for past comments when I want to revisit some details or share it with others.
 
fsshariq said:
Curious to see if NG Switch will give us an option to play games in Graphics/Performance mode or Nintendo will be strict and force games to only run in a particular mode.
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Games already run in 2 modes (docked and portable) so I'm not sure Nintendo would want to complicate their development pipeline anymore by having to support quality/perf mode on top of the others.
 
Danny said:
Lots of talk about 256 GB storage and big third party AAA games. But how big a jump in size do we think Nintendo first party games will see on the Switch 2? I expect Zelda and Xenoblade on Switch 2 will take up a lot of space.
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I have to assume nintendo is going to try to keep all or nearly all of their games under 64GB so that the physical carts needed aren't too expensive. I also think most third party games are going to be kept under 100GB but at some point either Activision is going to knock it off with the deliberately bloated file sizes or they are going to break their "nintendo gets CoD" promise.
 
Henriquegsr said:
Astral Chain sequel will have the most insane graphics, like Cyberpunk vibes
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You have no idea how much I need a sequel, especially after Bayonetta 3 (Which I definitely liked, but it wasn't as good as AS)

Necroxid said:
Yeah if you go for the direct exchange it sounds indeed weird, but I went looking for the exchange in 2017 and it was 1 euro = 120.83 yen ca. Switch MSRP was ¥27000 and back then it translated to €223 ca (MSRP in Europe was €330), so with this info in mind imo it isn't too far fetched
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Off topic here, but I adore you pfp <3
 
Discostew said:
Now, is that 10MB per frame (600MB/s at 60fps)...... uncompressed?
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It was all it needed the storage speed to be, from what I remember. Just having an SSD (or UFS in this case) is the biggest storage upgrade, faster SSDs don't actually matter as much as you might think.
 
I tihnk the biggest obstacle to a sequel to Astral Chain is Platinum's current state and if they are able to get over the departure of Kamiya
 
Necroxid said:
Yeah if you go for the direct exchange it sounds indeed weird, but I went looking for the exchange in 2017 and it was 1 euro = 120.83 yen ca. Switch MSRP was ¥27000 and back then it translated to €223 ca (MSRP in Europe was €330), so with this info in mind imo it isn't too far fetched
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That is an utterly absurd comparison, I'm sorry. You would be expecting the price of the successor to be more than double that price difference!

That also isn't a FAIR comparison, since Nintendo Switch at MSRP was €275 before tax; making the difference essentially €50. Considering the different markets, the complications of say, getting a Switch to French Guiana or Ireland compared to Japan, that doesn't seem too absurd.

But 150 to 200USD in the difference is an entirely different story. You're talking about a pre-tax price difference not of 20%, not 40%, but 100%. It assumes that, normalised to the Euro, the next system will not have a price increase! I know you SHOULDN'T normalise to the Euro, but it puts the absurdity into perspective!

The economies of Ireland, Germany and France are different to that of Japan. The Eurozone MSRP, indeed, has to account for the WORST part of the Eurozone, price wise. And I keep bringing up Ireland, because, hello!

But even Japan and the very extremeties of Ireland are not double the price different.

Look at PS5 Slim; yes the pre-tax price in Ireland and Japan are different, they're off by about 20% by my estimates, give or take. Not 100%!
 
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navierStokes said:
Just a simple python script 😂 , I just copied your data to a .csv file with tab separated columns.
I didn't spend much time on it lol, but I'll share some sloppy code..

Python: 
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

df = pd.read_csv("switch.txt",sep="\t", header=None, names=["TFLOPS",
                                                "CLOCKS",
                                                "QuestionMark",
                                                 "SEC5", "SEC8"])
plt.style.use('ggplot')

fig,axs = plt.subplots(1)

axs.plot(df.QuestionMark, df.TFLOPS, 'o-')
axs.plot(df.SEC5, df.TFLOPS, 'o-')
axs.plot(df.SEC8, df.TFLOPS, 'o-')

for x, y, text in zip(df.QuestionMark-2.5, df.TFLOPS, df.CLOCKS):
    plt.text(x, y, text, alpha=0.3)

axs.set_xlim(0, 35)
axs.set_ylabel("TFLOPs (FP32)")
axs.set_xlabel("Estimated Power consumption [W]")

plt.legend(['???', 'SEC5', 'SEC8'])

plt.suptitle("Estimated Power Consumption T239 [12SM GPU]", y=0.99)
plt.title("Marker labels: GPU Clock Speed [GHz] \nData taken from: 7hatDeadCat & Thraktor", fontsize=8)

plt.grid(True)

plt.savefig("t239-estimated-powerFreq-curve.png")

plt.show()
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pandas FTW. I loved to mess around with it in the old days.
 
0
Switcharoo said:
Not sure if UFS 3.1 Storage would be that great for Nintendo since it is pretty outdated and already 4-5x slower than most PC SSDs. Pretty sure you can get 500gb NVMe with 2x this read/write speed for less than 50 bucks. Nintendo seems to have "cheeped out" on storage they could very likely get for less than 20 buck in bulk.
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Even the tiny M2 NVMe is like 5 times the size of an UFS chip and 256gb of UFS 4.0 is definitely not a 20 bucks a pop product. The 256gb UFS 3.1 mentioned in the shipping is like $80 each and maybe $50 in bulk. Plus, the faster the storage, the faster the gamecard need to be and gamecard price is already a big problem with the Switch.
 
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Concernt said:
That is an utterly absurd comparison, I'm sorry. You would be expecting the price of the successor to be more than double that price difference!

That also isn't a FAIR comparison, since Nintendo Switch at MSRP was €275 before tax; making the difference essentially €50. Considering the different markets, the complications of say, getting a Switch to French Guiana or Ireland compared to Japan, that doesn't seem too absurd.

But 150 to 200USD in the difference is an entirely different story. You're talking about a pre-tax price difference not of 20%, not 40%, but 100%.

The economies of Ireland, Germany and France are different to that of Japan. The Eurozone MSRP, indeed, has to account for the WORST part of the Eurozone, price wise. And I keep bringing up Ireland, because, hello!

But even Japan and the very extremeties of Ireland are not double the price different.
Click to expand...
Oh wait, is price in yen before tax? Then I apologize for the absurdity, I thought the price Nintendo announced at the Switch 2017 presentation were all "after tax". I didn't think it thoroughly. ¥49000 should sound more reasonable then (I'm assuming Nintendo will want to keep JP price as low as possible)
 
Necroxid said:
Oh wait, is price in yen before tax? Then I apologize for the absurdity, I thought the price Nintendo announced at the Switch 2017 presentation were all "after tax". I didn't think it thoroughly. ¥49000 should sound more reasonable then (I'm assuming Nintendo will want to keep JP price as low as possible)
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I was under the impression the announced price was exclusive of tax for ¥, like USD. Nintendo's marketing materials on the matter of tax inclusion vary; at present the prices displayed on the website for hardware are inclusive of tax, but I've seen trailers with the pre-tax price listed in ¥. However, much of my point remains; consider that the European sales tax is MORE THAN DOUBLE that of Japan. Based on the sub-40000 price of OLED Model at present, I think ¥49000 (after tax) is very much possible, I believe in all regions they will want a clean differential of price, so ~100€/$100/¥10,000 more than OLED Model.
 


So I was checking out Mario Odyssey because I wanted to get some idea of what we could look forward to with the next Mario on significantly more powerful hardware, and I came across the mechawiggler fight. Now mind you I've seen (and played) it before, but it's been a really long time and I wanted to take a much closer look at it and see what we were dealing with, and what I found was actually really surprising. This boss fight has some of the most impressive tech going on in the entire game. Arguably the part that I found most impressive was on Mecca wiggler itself, with its model being quite intricate and well crafted, with extremely nice textures, and great lighting effects on the metal.

INwXJp8.png


On top of that, add to the fact that it's raining the entire time, with the rain effects and reflections on the puddles being rather nice as well. Considering that this was done on switch hardware, and the lighting already looks this dang good, imagine what they could do on a system with proper actual ray tracing!
 
BabyDontHurtMe said:
Is there going to be a backward compatible boost mode akin to what the PS5 and Xbox Series X does? I'd really like to see that.
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no one knows. there's nothing in the shipping data that can suggest that and there haven't been any reliable leaks saying old games will get added boosts to perf and visuals.
 
dirtkiller23 said:
Will this mean 120fps for Splatoon?
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Due to the desire for parity, I doubt we see 120hz in TV mode unless it's in handheld mode, and that requires the built in display to be 120hz, something I very much doubt we see.

But it could happen, support wise, but Splatoon will probably stick with 60, the game only really updates every few frames during network play, additional frames probably wouldn't help.
 
carbvan said:
no one knows. there's nothing in the shipping data that can suggest that and there haven't been any reliable leaks saying old games will get added boosts to perf and visuals.
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Yeah that would be on the software end of things. We'll learn more from Nintendo themselves if that were the case unless there's some apparent modularity with the chips or something.
 
Lugia667 said:
...if there aren't 512 ones it's gonna be a problem for me then. Guess I'd better hope they found a compatability solution
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I don't see why not since the release cadence for microSD Express 7.0 cards so far seem to follow the release cadence of UHS-I microSD cards:
  • Samsung was the first to announce a 256 GB UHS-I microSD card on 10 May 2016, with the launch being on July 2016
    • Although Western Digital wasn't the first to announce microSD Express 7.0 cards (Samsung was), Western Digital will be the first to launch microSD Express 7.0 cards (summer 2024 vs later in 2024)
  • Western Digital announced and launched a 400 GB UHS-I microSD card on 31 August 2017
  • Integral was the first to announce a 512 GB UHS-I microSD card on 22 January 2018, with the launch being on February 2018
(Considering that Western Digital so far seemed to have skipped using a non-standard capacity (e.g. 200 GB UHS-I microSD card) for microSD Express 7.0 cards, I wouldn't be surprised if SanDisk announces a 512 GB microSD Express 7.0 card sometime next year.)
 
Concernt said:
I was under the impression the announced price was exclusive of tax for ¥, like USD. Nintendo's marketing materials on the matter of tax inclusion vary; at present the prices displayed on the website for hardware are inclusive of tax, but I've seen trailers with the pre-tax price listed in ¥. However, much of my point remains; consider that the European sales tax is MORE THAN DOUBLE that of Japan. Based on the sub-40000 price of OLED Model at present, I think ¥49000 (after tax) is very much possible, I believe in all regions they will want a clean differential of price, so ~100€/$100/¥10,000 more than OLED Model.
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Adding to this, if we ignore everything except the post-tax MSRP of the OLED Model in the Eurozone and Japan, we see €299.99 and ¥37980. ~24% in the difference.

If we see the Eurozone price for Switch next be €399.99, ¥47980 seems on the table, but I would consider those the likely minimum post tax prices for both regions. Appying the 24% gets us closer to ¥49000.

Applying 24% to €449.99 gets us over ¥50000, putting it close to the Japanese price of the PS5 Slim Model Family Digital Edition, so we could see further divergence in this case; a larger price delta to keep Switch next under ¥50000 in Japan, no matter what Europe has to put up with.
 
0
Switcharoo said:
Not sure if UFS 3.1 Storage would be that great for Nintendo since it is pretty outdated and already 4-5x slower than most PC SSDs. Pretty sure you can get 500gb NVMe with 2x this read/write speed for less than 50 bucks. Nintendo seems to have "cheeped out" on storage they could very likely get for less than 20 buck in bulk.
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Third party developers are infamous for having unrealistic requests for hardware. And yet, third party developers requested Sony for at least 1 GB/s for the sequential read speed for the internal flash storage for the PlayStation 5. So UFS 3.1 should be more than completely fine.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
@Neoxon its not >PS4 Pro <Series S before DLSS, it’s between those two with scaling to produce that final image.
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That seems unlikely; it seems it's possible it's between those BEFORE scaling, and notably with more GPU features than either, with faster RT. Post scaling comparisons are pointless; you can point to DLSS Ultra Performance mode and say it's like 2 PS5s taped together, which is nonsense.
 
kingman said:


So I was checking out Mario Odyssey because I wanted to get some idea of what we could look forward to with the next Mario on significantly more powerful hardware, and I came across the mechawiggler fight. Now mind you I've seen (and played) it before, but it's been a really long time and I wanted to take a much closer look at it and see what we were dealing with, and what I found was actually really surprising. This boss fight has some of the most impressive tech going on in the entire game. Arguably the part that I found most impressive was on Mecca wiggler itself, with its model being quite intricate and well crafted, with extremely nice textures, and great lighting effects on the metal.

INwXJp8.png


On top of that, add to the fact that it's raining the entire time, with the rain effects and reflections on the puddles being rather nice as well. Considering that this was done on switch hardware, and the lighting already looks this dang good, imagine what they could do on a system with proper actual ray tracing!
Click to expand...

The thing with Mario games is that the team just knows how to make the artstyle really pop. I don't know how many people remember Super Mario Galaxy. People were talking about how that game looked on par with HD games for that time. And the Wii was a 480p system. And with Odyssey, it's so beautiful. They're gonna kill it.
 
tomrandom said:
Hi guys, do you think that with all the leaks recently, the Switch 2 will be able to run MH Wilds?
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I have little doubt, personally.

I think third party support on Switch next will be a case of business politics rather than "possible", a question of "economical" rather than "practical", and nothing leaked or rumoured suggests otherwise at present. For this reason, I think if Nintendo has worked with Rockstar in any capacity in the lead up to it, I expect to see GTA VI.
 
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