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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I feel like Metroid Prime 4 would be a next gen title at this point. I think Nintendo wants to position Metroid Prime 4 as basically a reinvention of the franchise and a huge attempt at making a big splash with Metroid Prime 4. It's clearly been in development for a LONG time. If I was Nintendo, I would just hold that one off for next gen and really push the graphics and atmosphere while giving gamers a huge reason to want to upgrade to the new hardware. I just don't think it makes sense to release that on a (will be 6+ year old) console at this point. Nintendo will want to save some BIG titles for the new hardware and this will be one of them I'm pretty sure.
I sincerely hope you're right, but I just don't see it happening.
 
If I were Nintendo, I would definitely be muddying the waters when it comes to information because people like to casually leak my shit.

What are the chances of Nintendo ditching the switch name for its next gen system?

Nintendo Hii
Nintendo UNI
Nintendo DUO
Nintendo NIO
Nintendo Kii
 
0
By that point, and considering the amount of time we have known about the T239, isn’t somewhat late or obsolet to use still the same chip?
Not really. Consoles arent mobile devices that can be outfitted with newly released processors. The Tegra X1 was used for the Google Pixel C tablet in early 2016 and the Switch released a year later. The specs for Drake are good regardless if it gets released in 2023 or 2024, it will simply be more impressive if its in 2023. We have to keep in mind that we are talking about performance that greatly exceeds the Steam Deck and it does it on much less power.
 
Jumpforce said no 4K model next year, you try to go against him and 19 people “yeah” this but he was right and he was honest.
Does Jumpforce have a track record? I'm asking since I've never heard of Jumpforce until today.

Anyway, I think it's still way too early to declare that Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake is coming no earlier than late 2024. I still believe there's still a possibility for a 2023 launch for Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake.
 
I’m not trying to play Nintendo Nostradamus or anything but those factory leaks are, IMO, due any day now.
the Uncle is probably still on Christmas break and has some New Years parties to attend. but after that when he's back in the factory it's game on, those new backplates aren't gonna fill themselves :cool:
 
Does Jumpforce have a track record? I'm asking since I've never heard of Jumpforce until today.

Anyway, I think it's still way too early to declare that Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake is coming no earlier than late 2024. I still believe there's still a possibility for a 2023 launch for Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake.
They have two posts on this forum, both in this thread.
 
I don't know who this person is either but I'm curious why this other person gave them a shoutout lol
No one is going to know who they are. They have 2 messages and joined the site like 2 weeks ago lol

Just weird to join the site talking about your sources and never writing another message
 
No one is going to know who they are. They have 2 messages and joined the site like 2 weeks ago lol

Just weird to join the site talking about your sources and never writing another message
Word I'm just amused at another user vouching for them and similarly complaining about negative attention.

#justiceforjumpforce
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.

First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:
  1. There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
  2. A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:

Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko
This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).

Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake
I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.

Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake
I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.

As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.

For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.

I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.

There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.

To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.

The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.

To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.

I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on it so that he can present things more cohesively.
 
It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

I believe that this is exactly what happened, the same way they also mixed up Drake and the OLED. The latter of which was potentially also going to be the overclocked Mariko at one point.
 
Who is Brainchild?
He's a dev. He has signed NDAs with Nintendo in... August? or so in 2021.

With all due respect, that is not the right approach. We have had users like Dakhil (our very OP) that never mentioned a single information without diligently mentioning their source and we have Thraktor, whose input are also always well documented and relevant.

I don't want to you to think that I am attacking you (I am not), but I believe that one way to avoid drama is by always referring to whatever information came before. That way, traceability is ensured and everyone has the possibility to go back to the root of an argument.

As a nice bonus, hot takes don't gain traction that way either.
I get where you're coming from here, and I can probably touch on a couple of things mentioned in that timeline theory from pre-Famiboards time. One not as helpful as the other, unfortunately.

I do distinctly recall in early 2021, Brainchild mentioning power issues with the chip (before he signed NDAs). Since he is under NDA now, I hope that you understand that I'm personally hesitant of linking back to that discussion. Pre-NDA stuff shouldn't be harmful, but why draw too much attention to it, right?

Alright, clocked up Mariko. There's a Eurogamer article on that topic here, citing Thraktor's legwork.





Seems TSMC's N3E process node's going to start high volume manufacturing (HVM) around the same time as Samsung's 3GAP process node (in 2024).

Another delay on getting N3 really off the ground is frustrating. Is there any impact on N2?
I think this could lend more credibility to the rumour of Nvidia using Samsung's 3 nm** process node (perhaps for entry level consumer Blackwell GPUs) since TSMC's N3B process node is rumoured to not have good yields.

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
Reminder: Samsung's 3GAP probably won't be a major upgrade over TSMC's 4N. When Samsung touts 3GAP's improvements, the comparison is against their 5LPE. That's the 2nd-to-last version of their 7nm generation (there's a 5LPP that squeezed a bit more out). Can't say that I'd be all that excited about any Blackwell cards on 3GAP, relative to 4N Lovelace.
 
Just one thing I need to stress and me (along with others) have mentioned this before: Unless Nintendo changes their philosophy with these type of announcements, do NOT expect Nintendo to drop an announcement of this through Nintendo Direct. They normally issue a press release, alongside with a video announcement. Afterwards, we'll get more of a press focus event with various announcements and press targeted discussions (though this may not be guaranteed, but we'll see). This is pretty standard for Nintendo and has been for a bit, so we'll see how things play out there. But like I said, do NOT expect them to announce this at a Direct or information to be dropped at said upcoming Directs.
 
Just one thing I need to stress and me (along with others) have mentioned this before: Unless Nintendo changes their philosophy with these type of announcements, do NOT expect Nintendo to drop an announcement of this through Nintendo Direct. They normally issue a press release, alongside with a video announcement. Afterwards, we'll get more of a press focus event with various announcements and press targeted discussions (though this may not be guaranteed, but we'll see). This is pretty standard for Nintendo and has been for a bit, so we'll see how things play out there. But like I said, do NOT expect them to announce this at a Direct or information to be dropped at said upcoming Directs.

We’ll know if Drake is coming by May though if they announce a Direct and show Zelda with zero mention of a new console. They won’t reveal Zelda on OG Switch if there’s a miles better looking version coming at the same time.
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.

First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:
  1. There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
  2. A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:

Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko
This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).

Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake
I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.

Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake
I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.

As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.

For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.

I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.

There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.

To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.

The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.

To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.

I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on it so that he can present things more cohesively.
Just cristal clear! As always.
 
This feels like a repeat of the Wii to Wii U transition and the exact opposite of what Iwata said in investor briefings in 2014-2015.

I'm not sure I buy it.
Plans can change.
I think it's a bit early to say they are winding things down, but there is a lot of DLC indeed, and the last Xenoblade DLC had a stand alone retail release, so I expect at least one of that type this year.
I think the timing of their DeNA partnership is mildly interesting. Switch came out 2 years after their first partnership was announced, and I am expecting the next system to be 2 years after the newly announced partnership (although it officially doesn't start until next April)
If it releases in 2025, that would be so whack, it will be using a GPU that’s based in five years prior, and a CPU that’s also based five years prior, so it will be two generations behind the GPU and 5 gens behind in CPU, on a node from 2017. That is so damn whack. 😂
But I already know people are going to defend this. :p
Pikmin 4 is literally dated for 2023.
Not to rain on the parade here, but “literally dated” is what Pikmin 4 is not :p

And that term doesn’t match with Nintendo as we’ve seen before lol. It’s moot.
 
if I had to bet money on this I think I'd say holiday 2024 with 3D Mario

then we could see Mario Kart in 2025, Animal Crossing in 2026, and Splatoon... at some point. Zelda is fucked regardless as it usually is
 
The obvious answer is that T239 is both chips. It likely was 8nm (with power draw problems) around the time Brainchild talked about the chip having power issues... That was Spring last year (so before that, we are talking a midgen refresh probably being canceled at the end of 2020. Then the T239 chip shrunk, giving us the DLSS test results sometime after June 2021 that LiC posted in here last week. We know engineering samples were in the wild in April 2022, that gives them plenty of time to cancel production on 8nm, redesign it for 5nm and have it launch in 1H 2023. Remember Zelda was delayed at the end of March 2022 (around the time engineering samples for T239 exist) to May 2023, that is probably because Drake was finally free of power issues. We know as of August 2022, that T239 is ready for full production, and thus all components for a next generation Switch is ready for production, lining up nicely for a 1H launch of Switch "2".

This is just the possible timeline of what happened, I think this makes perfect sense thanks to the OLED model, which Nintendo was already on the hook for these components. So if DF is correct about a midgen refresh in the past being canceled, I think it's clear why Switch "Pro" has hung around every year in the rumor mill.

October 2016, before the official reveal, that foxconn leak about the higher clocks and also a chip twice as big as TX1, and being confirmed by the content of the post like shape of the heat sink and it's size, the weight of the device, joycons, the naming of SL and SR buttons on the side of the joycons that slide into the rail system, literally a dozen other pieces of information that all checked out, and some reporting about Nintendo possibly moving to Pascal over Maxwell... Led to Switch pro rumors in 2016 before Switch even released.

In 2019, Nintendo overclocked Mariko to 1267MHz on the GPU, a higher CPU clock and LPDDR4X ram, giving about a 2/3rds performance jump, but ultimately retained Switch clocks, likely because of Switch's success and simplifying development. These clocks still exist in firmware.

in 2020 we get reports about Nintendo asking developers to prepare 4K versions of Switch games.

in 2021, we get brainchild's info, and news about a more powerful switch, also Switch OLED model launches with all new hardware, tons of changes, except to the main SoC. Why? I mean some of these components are just more expensive for no reason.

Nvidia hack on March 1st 2022 confirms T239, NVN2. End of March 2022, Zelda is delayed to May 2023, outside of the holiday season. April 2022 engineer samples for T239 exist. August 2022, T239 goes into production. November 2022 Zelda has gone gold, yet we aren't playing it.

That isn't even the entire history here, but everything is ready for a Switch "2" to be produced and released in the first half of next year, Zelda could have been shipped this year IMO, delaying it for what reason is hard to tell, it's not like Nintendo doesn't have other games close for release that could fill the first half of next year.

Finally, just a side note, some people think there is no time to reveal new hardware before Zelda, but Switch, which was an entirely new concept only had 4 and a half months between the October 20th 2016 reveal video and March 3rd 2017 launch. The Switch presentation was Jan 13th 2017, less than 2 months before the device went on sale. We are 5 and a half months before release of Zelda. There is time to reveal a Switch "2" to launch alongside of it.
Thank you for this. You have a much more organized memory that I do.

I think they (Nvidia and Nintendo) knew they were making Mariko when they Switch was launched and that it could either be an upgrade if they were struggling so they could get more ports to keep themselves afloat. They had a decision to make about whether to muddle things with such a quick refresh to get titles they otherwise couldn't or to keep it simple and not deal with consumer backlash about titles coming out that wouldn't play on their less than 3-year-old machine.

Personally I hope that they do a mid-gen refresh on the Drake version with a process shrink and the ability to run docked clocks while portable. Hide the option in the settings menu or something.
 
if I had to bet money on this I think I'd say holiday 2024 with 3D Mario

then we could see Mario Kart in 2025, Animal Crossing in 2026, and Splatoon... at some point. Zelda is fucked regardless as it usually is
It’s the year 2037 - Nintendo announces The Legend of Zelda: Smiles of the Forest for the Nintendo Switch, which is in the middle of its lifecycle.
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.

First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:
  1. There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
  2. A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:

Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko
This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).

Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake
I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.

Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake
I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.

As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.

For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.

I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.

There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.

To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.

The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.

To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.

I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on it so that he can present things more cohesively.
Just to clarify, DF never said this cancelled revision was the DLSS one as far as I'm aware. The Mochizuki report about 4k/DLSS development very likely was just conflating what developers know of Drake with the manufacturing timing of the OLED model. It's still by far the simplest explanation for that misunderstanding.

I think the cancelled revision was definitely Mariko, and was likely planned for 2019 when the lite launched. Again this feels like the simplest explanation.
Plans can change.
Sure but this would essentially be a philosophy change, not just changing some plans.

It would suck too.
 
People expect the iPhone style of succession because Iwata himself said he wanted to adopt it while discussing how drastically Nintendo's generations have tended to change in the past. Of course Nintendo can choose now whether or not to follow that, but that's where people's confidence in that idea come from.

And I'd agree it might sound like a daunting task, if we hadn't just had the PS and XB spend the past couple years in a cross-generation phase. I know it's probably not what they planned initially (Sony at least, Microsoft seems to want to be more flexible), but it's the way things ended up, and I think people would have an easier time recognizing and dealing with consoles working that way these days.


When you put it that way I'm kinda embarrassed that it worked on me 😅
I know I"m late to respond and the conversation has moved on, but I'll just explain a bit more about my concern. Yeah, I understand where the idea came from. I'm just skeptical on how it will work in practice, logistically. Having two devices within a single generation like Series X and Series S is one thing, but if Nintendo wants to carry the Switch brand on through multiple generations and forgo generations entirely, I wonder how feasible it is. Will there be different game case designs for Switch 2 or Switch 3? Will titles that don't work with Switch 1 or Switch 2 have clear indications on the case? What about games that work with Switch 2 and Switch 3, but not Switch 1? How will they identify that at a glance? And then you might have new Joycons, features, peripherals, or accessories that work on newer Switches but not older ones. It was easy for iPhone where its apps were entirely digital, but I'm curious how Nintendo can make it work in the console space where things are not upgraded as frequently as phones. But I'm probably way overthinking things overlooking a very obvious answer. After all, I already didn't like how Switch Lite deviated from the original design. I thought the lack of removable Joycon and IR sensor would invite some confusion for games that require those features like 1-2 Switch or Ring Fit Adventure, but it doesn't seem to have affected the Switch ecosystem at all, so maybe it's not as complicated as I'm making it seem, haha.
 
As time has gone on, I've become more and more convinced that Nintendo did, in fact, cancel a Mariko-based "Switch Pro" back in 2019, with the (oddly designated) red box Switch and later Switch OLED being the fallout from this cancellation. We have reason to believe that Nintendo needed to get off of Erista regardless, but the red box Switch going with HAC-001(-01) rather than the typical HAC-101 strongly suggests to me this was not their preferred option. The recent DF video would seem to provide further corroboration for this idea.

Certain aspects from the rumor mill that have been bothering me would make a lot more sense if there was still a bunch of fragmentary information from that system floating around.
 
if I had to bet money on this I think I'd say holiday 2024 with 3D Mario

then we could see Mario Kart in 2025, Animal Crossing in 2026, and Splatoon... at some point. Zelda is fucked regardless as it usually is
My best guess?

3D Mario- 2024
Donkey Kong Country- 2024/2025
2D Zelda 2024/2025
Luigi's Mansion- 2024/2025
Paper Mario- 2025/2026
Mario Kart- 2025/2026
Metroid 2D- 2026/2027
Animal Crossing 2026/2027
Smash Bros- 2026/2027
Xenoblade (or new Monolith series)- 2026/2027
Fire Emblem- 2026/2027
Splatoon 4- 2027/2028
Pikmin 5- 2027/2028
3D Zelda- 2029 going by the rule of "every 3D Zelda takes longer to make than its predecessor"

Star Fox- Always in my heart
Kirby- All the time

And I'll be honest, none of this is taking teams/developers into account. Just shooting at the hip.
 
I know I"m late to respond and the conversation has moved on, but I'll just explain a bit more about my concern. Yeah, I understand where the idea came from. I'm just skeptical on how it will work in practice, logistically. Having two devices within a single generation like Series X and Series S is one thing, but if Nintendo wants to carry the Switch brand on through multiple generations and forgo generations entirely, I wonder how feasible it is. Will there be different game case designs for Switch 2 or Switch 3? Will titles that don't work with Switch 1 or Switch 2 have clear indications on the case? What about games that work with Switch 2 and Switch 3, but not Switch 1? How will they identify that at a glance? And then you might have new Joycons, features, peripherals, or accessories that work on newer Switches but not older ones. It was easy for iPhone where its apps were entirely digital, but I'm curious how Nintendo can make it work in the console space where things are not upgraded as frequently as phones. But I'm probably way overthinking things overlooking a very obvious answer. After all, I already didn't like how Switch Lite deviated from the original design. I thought the lack of removable Joycon and IR sensor would invite some confusion for games that require those features like 1-2 Switch or Ring Fit Adventure, but it doesn't seem to have affected the Switch ecosystem at all, so maybe it's not as complicated as I'm making it seem, haha.
Nintendo has dealt with exactly this sort of issue at various points in the past, it's not terribly difficult. What they do is use the logo for the minimum compatible hardware on the box (typically designed to look fairly distinct from the previous logo), and stick "also playable on X" stickers that list the more powerful platforms on stuff that is still compatible with older hardware.
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.



First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:

There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:



Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko

This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).



Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake

I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.



Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake

I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.



As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.



For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.



In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.



I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.



There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.



To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.



The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.



To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.



I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on yh so that he can present things more cohesively.
An immense thank you.
Aside from the OP, your input (and Dakhil's) is the most valuable thing this thread can offer to its readers.
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.

First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:
  1. There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
  2. A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:

Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko
This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).

Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake
I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.

Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake
I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.

As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.

For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.

I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.

There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.

To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.

The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.

To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.

I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on it so that he can present things more cohesively.
This is a great summary. Thanks. Yeah, it does seem likely that whatever device that Drake is intended for, it’s probably coming to market in 2023. Most of the other comments from insiders or outlets seems largely speculative in the face of these types of technical details and common industry practices. If Drake isn’t released in 2023, hopefully we’ll get more details someday about what actually happened. Like, is it possible that NVN2 isn’t a Nintendo API? Seems absurd but I suppose it must be considered.
 
It is highly unlikely considering the specific references in the NVN2 files.
People keep saying this but I don't remember that being the case... It made references to the NX platform and Hovi IIRC but no explicit "Nintendo", right?

Still, it's beyond a shadow of a doubt related to Nintendo.
 
Unless Nintendo changes their philosophy with these type of announcements, do NOT expect Nintendo to drop an announcement of this through Nintendo Direct. They normally issue a press release, alongside with a video announcement.
I agree with this. If the next Switch is releasing alongside Zelda TotK in May, I wouldnt be surprised to see a short promotional video mid January and then the full details in February. Nintendo may still market this Switch as part of the Switch family even though it will have exclusive games. Im sure Nintendo has been racking their brains in how to best go about delivering a next gen Switch without creating a hard reset. Perhaps looking for a transition closer to GameBoy to GameBoy Color. Exclusives yes, but consumers generally view it as a direct continuation of the platform they have been enjoying for years.

Or hell, maybe shit gets really crazy and Nvidia gives the first sneak peak at CES next week. Crazier stuff happens, not often but still.
 
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People keep saying this but I don't remember that being the case... It made references to the NX platform and Hovi IIRC but no explicit "Nintendo", right?

Still, it's beyond a shadow of a doubt related to Nintendo.

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
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Looking at what could've been for a Mariko pro, I see from the DVFS tables maximums of ~2 Ghz for the CPU and ~1,267 Mhz for the GPU. I am curious about what could've been for the RAM. Would it have simply been full speed 64-bit LPDDR4X (+1/3 bandwidth)? Or would it have been expanded to 128-bit LPDDR4X, at either LPDDR4 speed (thus +3/3 bandwidth) or at full 4X speed (thus +5/3 bandwidth)? FWIW, looking at Samsung and Micron, the smallest quantity to hit 128-bit LPDDR4X in two modules is 8 GB (pair of 4's). To fill 128-bit while still landing at 4 or 6 GB would require no less than four modules.
 
Late 2924 would mean that, if the rumours were true, then those rumoured 3rd party exclusives would have been sat on for what, 3-4 years? Can’t see many devs being happy about that.

Also on the 3rd party front, late 2024 launch might mean We don’t get many more big 3rd party ports on the current as the power is just not there for devs to bother optimising for.
 
So after watching the Digital Foundry video and skimming through the dozens of pages added in the last couple of days, I have some thoughts, which I'll try to cover in the most coherent way I can manage.

First off, to reiterate the two pieces of info from the DF video:
  1. There was as some point a mid-gen refresh of the Switch planned, which was cancelled (this was backed by conversations with developers)
  2. A couple of the DF team think a 2023 release for a next-gen Switch is unlikely (this was presented as opinion)
They don't specify what kind of hardware was due to be in this mid-gen refresh, when it was planned, or how far along it got before being cancelled. As I see it, there are three possibilities for the hardware side of things:

Mid-Gen Possibility 1: Overclocked Mariko
This seems plausible to me. We know Mariko was available since 2019, and we know it would have been able to clock higher than the original TX1 and supported faster RAM. A timeframe of 2019-2021 would make sense for a device like this, and that overlaps with Bloomberg reports that a mid-gen refresh was planned for 2021. On the negative side, an overclocked Mariko wouldn't have been a huge bump in performance. Possibly a 50% boost in clocks at the highest end of expectation, maybe with additional RAM too. It would be a noticeable improvement, but it definitely wouldn't have been capable of pushing Switch games to 4K (as Bloomberg claimed from the new device).

Mid-Gen Possibility 2: A Cancelled Chip Between Mariko and Drake
I would consider this unlikely. It's definitely possible that Nintendo and Nvidia discussed various hardware options before Drake, and some of them may have made their way into the planning stages. However, this report comes from speaking with developers, and for developers to start work on software for the new device they need an SDK which supports that new hardware in some way. The Nvidia hack from earlier this year, though, included the source code to the graphics SDK that Switch developers use, and there are apparently no references to any hardware between TX1 and Drake in there. If an intermediate chip was developed to the point of third party developers actually working on games for it, then you'd expect vestigial references to it to be littered all over the NVN source code. The lack of these makes an intermediate chip very unlikely in my view.

Mid-Gen Possibility 3: Drake
I also consider this unlikely. As I've said since the details revealed in the Nvidia hack in March, Drake is simply overkill for a mid-gen refresh. If you want hardware to run Switch games at higher resolutions like 4K, there are two options. First, just use a bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (say 6-8 SMs) and natively render at 4K. Second, use a smaller Turing/Ampere GPU (say 4-6 SMs) and render at ~1080p, then use DLSS to get to 4K. The former is a bit more "brute force", but keeps development simple, as the architecture is the same. The latter is probably more efficient, but requires extra work from developers to leverage. Drake is not only bigger than it needs to be to brute-force native 4K on Switch games, but it also has a new architecture with tensor cores for DLSS, full ray-tracing support, etc. I can't imagine a world where Nintendo went into a design process for a mid-gen refresh and ended up with Drake.

As a sort of possibility 3.5, I've also seen people propose that Drake has changed over time, with an earlier version of it being intended for a mid-gen refresh, then it was upgraded to a larger chip for a Switch 2. I don't personally think this is likely for the same reason as possibility 2 above; there would have been some vestigial references in the Nvidia hack to the older version of the chip. However, as far as I'm aware, there's no evidence in there that T239 was ever anything else than it currently is.

For me an overclocked Mariko seems the best guess, although I'll admit it would have been a somewhat meagre mid-gen upgrade. It also wouldn't have really aligned with Bloomberg's claims that Nintendo's plans were for a 4K device, or that they would use DLSS. It could be that his sources were referring to two different devices, one mid-gen upgrade which was cancelled, and the other being the Drake-powered Switch 2, and they got conflated into a single model.

In terms of timing, although the comments on the likelihood of a 2023 launch was only speculation on their part, it does make a H1 2023 (ie alongside ToTK) launch much less likely in my eyes, as if the new hardware were 6 months away I would assume they'd have heard of it. I still wouldn't fully rule out H2 2023, though.

I think it's worth coming back to what other info we have, though. Between the Nvidia hack, and a variety of L4T (Linux For Tegra) commits from Nvidia, we know that work started on Drake/T239 in late 2019/early 2020, and that it's a chip which is overkill for a mid-gen upgrade, but well-specced for a Switch 2. The less-capable tensor cores compared to Orin, along with the lack of DLA/PVA/etc., point to it being poorly suited for Nvidia's other SoC use-cases (ie automotive and Jetson), and with the file decompression engine it looks very much like T239 has been designed specifically for Nintendo. The presence of T239-specific code in L4T suggests that it will also be used on non-Nintendo products, similarly to how Mariko was also used on the Shield TV.

There are two more recent indications that some degree of manufacturing has started on Drake. Firstly, there have been a couple of T239-specific commits upstreamed to the Linux kernel (ie they're in standard Linux now, not just L4T). There's no iron-clad rule on this, but generally companies don't upstream this kind of thing until manufacturing has started and they're preparing to release the new hardware. Secondly, @oldpuck found a reference to T239 PCIe timings in a L4T commit. I can't remember the specifics off the top of my head, but it's the kind of thing which only makes sense if Nvidia have actual silicon on hand to work with. Neither of these are enough to prove that the chip is in full scale manufacturing, but they suggest that at the very least engineering samples are available, and full-scale manufacturing typically isn't too far away at that point.

To me, the most likely course of events for a chip like Drake is that it would be manufactured firstly for Nintendo, and then Nintendo would allow Nvidia to use it in other (probably non-competing) products after Nintendo's shipments are fulfilled. We saw this on Mariko, for example, where a new Shield TV showed up shortly after the Mariko Switch models. Nintendo accounts for 99+% of Nvidia's consumer SoC business, so manufacturing an SoC like this without Nintendo doesn't make sense for Nvidia. Meanwhile, if Nintendo get to dictate the design of the chip, and then can get a better deal by allowing Nvidia to also use the chip in some other products, they might as well do so.

The evidence that Drake is entering manufacturing is therefore important, as I don't believe this would happen without Nintendo's go-ahead. Had Nintendo decided to cancel their Drake-based model before manufacturing started, or delayed it by a year or more, then I can't see Nvidia going ahead with manufacturing. They just don't have a big enough market for a chip like this without Nintendo on board. It's technically possible that Nintendo could have cancelled or delayed the device after manufacturing had started, but that would be the worst possible time to do so, costing them a vast amount of money.

To me this still points to a 2023 launch being on the cards, although more likely late 2023 given DF's comments. Either that or Nvidia have decided to go ahead with manufacturing on T239 on their own without Nintendo, which would require a much bigger product than the Shield TV to justify. Maybe they have such a product (I'm genuinely struggling to think of one), but I personally don't see it happening without Nintendo. Ergo, I still see a 2023 release as on the table, even if DF don't.

I won't comment on NateDrake's posts yet, as I'll have to go through and read them again, but I may wait for him to post a video on it so that he can present things more cohesively.
Thank you for posting the most rational explanation given so far.
 
Place your early bets. After TotK, does a new 3D Zelda release before:
1. A new 2D Zelda?
2. 2030?

2D Zelda comes first. I'll bet the house on it.

Before Jan 1st 2030? Maaaaaaaybe. I want to believe that that Nintendo won't take more than 6.5 years to make the next new Zelda, but I'm not putting money on that.
 
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