Thats some mental gymnastics. Lets just see whos right in a couple of months.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Hosermess
Koopa
I've tried to track it down but have had no luck....does anyone remember a few months ago, somebody in here posted a random tech blog (that was maybe based in South America?), that had written about Switch Pro devkit "leak"? It didn't really gain any traction because, well a lot of reasons, but one being that it was inaccurate and a fake because what it was describing wasn't Drake.
Not saying I think it's accurate or anything, but I'm curious and would like to read it again.
Not saying I think it's accurate or anything, but I'm curious and would like to read it again.
Guys, I think we are learning the emperor has no clothes.
Dekuman
Kremling
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If drake is the 2023 device being planned, and that 2023 device is cancelled I can't see why Drake wouldn't be what is cancelled. What else could it be?
Also a mid-gen refresh in 2023 seems kind of late, I had always assumed DF was talking about the overclocked Mariko that everyone was expecting to come with the OLED.
I think we're missing info here, and the news is too heavy that some of us are in denial is indeed a planned hardware release was cancelled for next year. it has to be the leaked Drake device. The only other alternative is an earlier device got canned. There can't be 2 devices launching in the next year or two.
Also a mid-gen refresh in 2023 seems kind of late, I had always assumed DF was talking about the overclocked Mariko that everyone was expecting to come with the OLED.
I think we're missing info here, and the news is too heavy that some of us are in denial is indeed a planned hardware release was cancelled for next year. it has to be the leaked Drake device. The only other alternative is an earlier device got canned. There can't be 2 devices launching in the next year or two.
there's no reason another client would need drake. orin is built for that
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Our hearts will live on.Thank you for your service.
I believe in Drake by end of May.
OP
OP
I think this could lend more credibility to the rumour of Nvidia using Samsung's 3 nm** process node (perhaps for entry level consumer Blackwell GPUs) since TSMC's N3B process node is rumoured to not have good yields.
** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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If the same thing is repositioned, then nothing is canned.
theguy
Paratroopa
i mean sure, i agree with all of your points, the switch in my eyes is the perfect conception of a console. i know that the drake is much more powerful, until its revealed and i really hope it’s this coming year, the steam deck still performs much better than the current switch does. it’s really not as laughable as you think, it’s the truth
i don’t know enough about business, but wouldn’t a company as large as nintendo, look at a smaller company and think well the tech is clearly there, let’s stomp out any and all competition? regardless of sales figures, the point still stands, that the deck is still powerful, it may not have all of the functionality of the switch, but it serves as a proof of concept that handheld gaming has the potential to be pushed even further. this is what the drake is hopefully going to prove.
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I do and did enjoy your posts here, Polygon. Can't blame you for not wanting to stick around because of ungrateful little shits that unfortunately populate our website, but thank you all the same for your insight over the years.
Truthfully, put me down on @Concernt 's team of mid-gen refresh shelved but the Switch 2 successor still on track for 2023. We'll know well enough within three months.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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The mid gen refresh is canned. The marketing, the name, the documentation and possibly even the SOC, all gone. The sequel console is not. It has been replaced, in its market position, for various reasons. I'd be with Zombi3 on this one, it was canned years ago and rethought.
Whatever man.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
the problem with that is the timeline. listen, this information Nate actually reports on it in spring this year. it's from before Spring 2022. NVN2 has data going back years and only TX1 and T239 are listed, there is no other chip... the issue is that Drake isn't canceled, since Nate mentioned this info in Spring 2022, We not only had Nvidia hack info from a couple months prior, showing no cancelation, but linux info showing continuation of development, engineering samples in April, Final silicon in August, if Drake was canned, these things wouldn't have continued, Nate himself even says it isn't Drake afaik.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I suppose you can believe what you like. I just don't see it as being likely that the sequel planned for 2023 was canned. But some other mid-gen device definitely was.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
DF said themselves that the device was canceled in the past, it was a previous device that was suppose to be released already, that is the wording being used, that a midgen refresh existed, it was canceled in the past and that it is no longer happening, nothing DF said sounded recent, and as Polygon pointed out, John himself has no history of hardware knowledge, Rich does, but Rich hasn't taken a next gen Switch launching alongside Zelda off the table.
Nate did ineed say that his statement has nothing to do with Drake and that Drake could be part of the Next Gen system.
Thank you for pointing to this out. It is as you say in these comments!
- Nate didnt say Drake was scrapped, but that Mid Gen Refresh was. And we still dont know if it really was planned for 2023 or does his sources misunderstand Drake 2023 for Mid Gen Refresh 2023.
- John didnt say either if its Drake and it sounds like it was a long time ago (Time about 2020 and 2021) and he just dont believe (doesnt know --> important difference) that it will release 2023.
thanks for sharing your info.
and please reconsider your ban request I enjoy your posts.
Dekuman
Kremling
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ok thanks. I went back and read @NateDrake 's posts and on one hand he seems to confirm the 'heavy' news was the cancellation of the revision, but doesn't committ to drake being what is cancelled which is confusing to me since this drake device is expected to launch next year or 2024. if a 2023 device is cancelled, what else could it be?
@Polygon seems pretty confident there's something launching next year still?
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
yeah why would drake exist in final silicon if it isn't being used in 2023? This will be known in just a week btw, CES could solve this issue with a T239 powered device, or it could strengthen greatly, the idea that Switch "2" is the reason T239 is in production right now.
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He said it wasn't necessarily Drake. Not that it wasn't.
Meaning he's saying he doesn't know what the revision's chip was, it could've been Drake too.
Aether
Tingle
Im not happy about how nate communicated his post (since it put a contradiction up and center), but the way a hand full reacted (meltdown mode) was really not the best side of era, and one i did not like on era back then.
I get you being upset. Still sad about good civilized contributors (like you or nate) moving away because of that.
Soralink91
Moblin
I think we will get a much more clear picture once Nintendo starts marketing Zelda and the rest of it's 2023 lineup. Until then it will be fun to speculate with the puzzle pieces we have. I still think launching a new console with Zelda and treating it like the Gameboy color, extending the life of the Switch family for another three or so years is the way to go, but I am not in charge of Nintendo.
Whatever happens 2023 will be a fun ride full of twists and turns.
Whatever happens 2023 will be a fun ride full of twists and turns.
GOOD
actually
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It is cool to hear some inside information, even when it is just for setting up new theories to talk about. But even when it is for example almost 100% certain that something is happening, we should always keep in mind that nothing is set in stone until Nintendo announces it.
It is ok to be disappointed and for my part I am disappointed in how Nintendo communicates in general and how bad some games perform on Switch. I can‘t wait for new Hardware. But I understand that I can‘t demand answers from indivduals like Nate as if it is his job to give us salvation or something.
It is ok to be disappointed and for my part I am disappointed in how Nintendo communicates in general and how bad some games perform on Switch. I can‘t wait for new Hardware. But I understand that I can‘t demand answers from indivduals like Nate as if it is his job to give us salvation or something.
Hardware performance != sales.i mean sure, i agree with all of your points, the switch in my eyes is the perfect conception of a console. i know that the drake is much more powerful, until its revealed and i really hope it’s this coming year, the steam deck still performs much better than the current switch does. it’s really not as laughable as you think, it’s the truth
i don’t know enough about business, but wouldn’t a company as large as nintendo, look at a smaller company and think well the tech is clearly there, let’s stomp out any and all competition? regardless of sales figures, the point still stands, that the deck is still powerful, it may not have all of the functionality of the switch, but it serves as a proof of concept that handheld gaming has the potential to be pushed even further. this is what the drake is hopefully going to prove.
Many times history repeated itself on this. OG XBOX? more powerful than the GC and WAY more powerful than the PS2. Compared to the GC? sold barely more, compared to the PS2? flopped. DS? sold nearly double compared to the more powerful PSP, is the second most sold console of all time. PSVita vs 3DS? even worse flop.
Of all of the aforementioned consoles, the ones who succeeded all had one thing in common: top notch exclusives. This is what matters, this is literally the only thing that matters. I already talked about ITT like 3-4 pages ago how you all worry too much about stuff like naming schemes when something like the WiiU flopped because of launch titles and the delay to get some actual heavyweight titles.
People don't want the inconvenience of the steam deck, they want to plop in a cartridge or, press A and boot a game. That's it, simple as. No signing into an account from a launcher, or having to format the SSD to install a whole ass different operating system (win10/11) just to get some games to work properly or, setting framerates and power limits for each game.
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What he said is true though... This is a pretty embarrassing post.
Dekuman
Kremling
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I re-listened to the DF video again and John simply states there was a Switch revision that was cancelled at some point and Nintendo has moved on to the successor but he doesn't expect it to launch in 2023.
The stuff about what Nate has heared being the cancelled revision and drake getting mixed into it seems to be entirely due to our bubble of information since we had given up on the pro-revision since 2020 when OLED launched. So I do wonder if it's things getting mixed up and we're ahead of the curve.
Nate not being very sure what he is thinks in cancelled is probably the problem here. If he's heard a revision was cancelled, while at the same time speculation is going strong on drake, it could well be that it's implied to be drake, but is actually a delayed news on a preivous cancellation on a ProSwitch using Mariko.
The stuff about what Nate has heared being the cancelled revision and drake getting mixed into it seems to be entirely due to our bubble of information since we had given up on the pro-revision since 2020 when OLED launched. So I do wonder if it's things getting mixed up and we're ahead of the curve.
Nate not being very sure what he is thinks in cancelled is probably the problem here. If he's heard a revision was cancelled, while at the same time speculation is going strong on drake, it could well be that it's implied to be drake, but is actually a delayed news on a preivous cancellation on a ProSwitch using Mariko.
Anatole
Octorok
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Nate clearly has sources. Polygon might have sources, idk. But at this point, I would honestly prefer that they don’t share that information. It doesn’t seem like having that is very healthy for the thread, regardless of the truth of what they are sharing.
This boom-bust cycle has happened multiple times across this thread and the Direct threads on Era. Nate shares information, something supposedly changes behind the scenes, people blow up at him, he (understandably) feels alienated by this, a bunch of people come in and tag him and say how much they appreciate his posts and ask him not to leave, he stays.
I just don’t think the pattern of that relationship is healthy. I would love to have them both as community members, but I personally don’t want more information from them. Let the leaks and rumors come from outside the forum, so we don’t have any more personal attacks and hurt feelings.
That’s just my two cents. Maybe we don’t need an oracle.
This boom-bust cycle has happened multiple times across this thread and the Direct threads on Era. Nate shares information, something supposedly changes behind the scenes, people blow up at him, he (understandably) feels alienated by this, a bunch of people come in and tag him and say how much they appreciate his posts and ask him not to leave, he stays.
I just don’t think the pattern of that relationship is healthy. I would love to have them both as community members, but I personally don’t want more information from them. Let the leaks and rumors come from outside the forum, so we don’t have any more personal attacks and hurt feelings.
That’s just my two cents. Maybe we don’t need an oracle.
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Yeah this is exactly where I'm at. The confusion lies in whatever Nate is telling us he heard, and hopefully he clarifies that.
What DF said is nothing we haven't known for several years. I'm surprised it has gotten so much traction.
And also, I don't know how Nate felt that quote from John was enough to disclose his info prematurely. In retrospect a bad decision imo.
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Let's have a bit more decorum, please. If you want to challenge or engage with his post, a reaction gif jab isn't the ideal way to do things.
or just ignore the person " their is an option for that "
don't dictate what users want to posts.
personally I enjoy Nate posts on fami and I hope he continue posting here
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I too would also appreciate if they feel comfortable enough to post here and engage with the community without feeling pressured to share information, but when assholes actively attack other members of this community and preface their statements as such I'd certainly want to stand up for others.
Chrissake, they're not going around kicking their dog.
Mr.Gamerson
Octorok
These are my main reasons for still thinking Switch 2 launches next year around Zelda
1. Last time 3D Zelda was delayed it was to launch with a new System, this strategy worked almost too well.
2. We know Drake exists and have specs for it
3. 2023 is 6+ years after the launch of the original system and is an acceptable life-span for the Switch.
4. Switch PRO/2 trends every week on Twitter damn near, so the demand is clearly here for a new system.
5. We never officially got a mid gen hardware upgrade performance wise, and the switch hardware is clearly showing its age.
6. We have insiders alluding to the possibility of a next gen switch coming.
7. Nintendo doesn't need a lot of lead up time market this next Switch since the brand is well established
8. Production seems like it will improve in 2023
9. Again Zelda TOTK taking 6 years to come out is kind of fishy to me, considering its a direct sequel.
Like many have said before, we will likely have a clearer answer in the next month or so.
Humans are very capable of not meeting expectations, don't take it personal, unless you want to of course lol.
1. Last time 3D Zelda was delayed it was to launch with a new System, this strategy worked almost too well.
2. We know Drake exists and have specs for it
3. 2023 is 6+ years after the launch of the original system and is an acceptable life-span for the Switch.
4. Switch PRO/2 trends every week on Twitter damn near, so the demand is clearly here for a new system.
5. We never officially got a mid gen hardware upgrade performance wise, and the switch hardware is clearly showing its age.
6. We have insiders alluding to the possibility of a next gen switch coming.
7. Nintendo doesn't need a lot of lead up time market this next Switch since the brand is well established
8. Production seems like it will improve in 2023
9. Again Zelda TOTK taking 6 years to come out is kind of fishy to me, considering its a direct sequel.
Like many have said before, we will likely have a clearer answer in the next month or so.
Humans are very capable of not meeting expectations, don't take it personal, unless you want to of course lol.
LinkURL
Moblin
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What I think happened:
- 2020 Dev comes up to Nate and says they are making a Switch PRO
- 2021 The PRO idea is canceled and they start working on Switch 2 (using what they had already thought for the PRO), the new release date is 2022/2023
- 2021 Dev comes up to Nate and talks about a new device release date but doesn't say it's the 2, Nate understands it can only be the PRO
- 2022 When trying to get informed Nate gets the information that the PRO he had said before has been cancelled, he assumes that this can only be about the 2022/2023 revision
Anatole
Octorok
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What they post defines the whole mood of the thread. A few words from Nate can define how people feel and speak in here for weeks or months. He’s a public figure in these parts. You have to recognize that.
I said that I want him to continue posting here. I like him, and I think he usually has good takes on things. But I don’t want inside information from him. It’s not his fault, but the way that people spiral when information he posts changes or turns out to be wrong creates an unhealthy thread culture. This thread shouldn’t be about lionizing or vilifying insiders.
quelseydilla
zoom?
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I'm mostly a lurker -- especially in this thread -- but I just wanted to thank all those who share the info they have! I can't wait for Nate's podcast to see what he's heard, and for all of the additional details/leaks that we'll eventually see him/others post leading up to the next model.
In the meantime, seeing everyone's speculation is fun, and it'll be cool to see whose theories end up matching closest in the end.
I don't have a shortage of Switch games to play though, so I'll be content for a fair while regardless!
In the meantime, seeing everyone's speculation is fun, and it'll be cool to see whose theories end up matching closest in the end.
I don't have a shortage of Switch games to play though, so I'll be content for a fair while regardless!
Anatole
Octorok
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I didn’t say that Nate shouldn’t defend himself or that he should leave the site. I also didn’t say that he should stop sharing information as a moral imperative. I said that I personally would prefer that he doesn’t share his information in the future, because I think it would be healthier for thread culture.
The fighting, attacks, and hysteria show up predictably every time that Nate’s information changes, inevitably followed by apologists. It’s a spiraling pattern for the thread. I’d rather just not have information that’s so tenuous. There’s plenty of value in pure speculation and debate on external rumors. Plus we have leaks that are set in stone, like the Nvidia leak. I don’t need anything more than that.
And I love my dog, for what it’s worth.
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Frankly that makes no sense. Andy doesn't believe there's another "big" game happening in the next two years?
Truno
Koopa
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Important to note that they don't consider games like Pikmin 4 to be big. They're talking about Mario, Animal Crossing, Zelda, Smash, etc., caliber games
At the very least, MP 4 will be on Switch. Might be cross gen, but definitely not Drake exclusive.
Soralink91
Moblin
If Nintendo does not plan to have a lengthy cross gen period and treats the new console like a traditional new Nintendo gen there will have to be a bit of a lull in major titles to build up exclusives for the new machine.
Goodtwin
Like Like
Its not an arbitrary year count, but proper planning. There is no way Nintendo could have forecasted that Switch in its 5th year on the market would still be selling upwards of 20 million units a year. They plan ahead assuming that eventually sales will start to taper off, and there are examples in the past where this can happen suddenly. The curve might not always look like a nice bell curve, but instead can look like the first hill of a roller coaster.
Exactly, if its not shown off by the next Nintendo Direct then its not coming in 2023. The Zelda TotK delay just makes me to damn suspicious. There is no doubt in my mind that Nintendo could have met the holiday 2022 deadline, and even if they did decide to delay it for scheduling reasons, why not March 20223? That would line up with them have a big push right before the end of the fiscal year helping to boost their financial report. Localization for voice act icing is one of the last things they do with a game and they have been doing that for a while now. Certainly seems like the decision was made for reasons other than the games development was behind.
There was no way Drake or any Orin based chip could have been ready for 2020/2021. So whatever Nintendo was planning to spec in the Switch Pro certainly wasn't an Orin derivative. Switch OLED released in October 2021, seems likely that it shares parts with what would have been the Pro model. You would have to assume it was either going to be a Tegra X1 variant, possibly the X1 Parker or maybe an Xavier variant. I still think there was a whole lot of information that was being mistaken for the Switch Pro when in fact that model had long since been scraped and was really info about Switch 2.
I know what CES is, but not super familiar with how these things are shown off. Is it customary for devices to be shown and specific SOC model numbers to be referenced?
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So by big they mean, like, mega seller. 10M+ or whatever I guess?
I think there's been at least one every year of the Switch's life, usually more than one. They seem to think there won't be one after Zelda before late 2024 at the earliest?
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Which, honestly I agree with. Even for his own sanity I'd agree if he didn't want to share any information here just so this thread could engage in some healthier debates and discussion.
The spiraling is definitely getting intense, and I know well enough I'm getting caught up in it just to push back against toxicity that seemingly emanates from this thread when it's not checked. I don't want to see Famiboards fall into the same pitfalls as Era did from people feeling alienated from a community that as a result only becomes the worst of the worst. People lash out at others, I'd just as easily lash out at Nintendo for failing to provide hardware that allows a fanbase to foam at the mouth like this, but realistically we all need to look inwards more and find out what makes us so angry about video games in the first place. Disappointment is fine, expressing frustration is fine, but this anger that is bubbling over like now worries and concerns me.
I don't know where I was going with this, I sort of blanked and don't feel like editing that stream of conscious thought, but in essence I do agree with you. I apologize if anything I said came off as abrasive; I'm more ruffled by other posters truthfully.
LinkURL
Moblin
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But that kind of makes sense, barring a new 3D Mario (which we don't even have rumors about), all those franchises aren't getting games anytime soon.
But not because they are killing the Switch to transition to 2, but because franchises that only appear once per console (MK, Smash, Animal Crossing) have already been released on Switch, and franchises like Zelda and Splatoon will not have anything new after May.
I'd say it's safe to assume that every games announced will release on the current model.
Imagine if MP4 is Drake exclusive, those who bought a Switch just for this game (I am sure those exists) will not be happy.
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