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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
BDGAME said:
Talking in Dock mode, is there a possibility that the new dock can help to incriase the resolution?

For example, the switch portable run games at 360p or 540p and DLSS 3.5 upscale it to 1080p. The dock version basically do the same thing, but in less time thanks to the extra power. Then the dock use that extra time to make a new upscale to 4K.

Is that possible?
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The dock is not well positioned to do any extra image processing. It's too far from the SoC to be sufficiently integrated into the rendering process for advanced techniques that actually look passable.

The dock is likely not going to get a significantly expanded role from what it has now.
 
In regards of Nate episode, Just a warning for those looking for some corroboration and positive insights from the rumors we got this past week then this episode isnt it, in my opinion this episode is filled with a lot of pessimism something this board doesnt need more of, again this is just MY OPINON
 
Pokemaniac said:
The dock is not well positioned to do any extra image processing. It's too far from the SoC to be sufficiently integrated into the rendering process for advanced techniques that actually look passable.

The dock is likely not going to get a significantly expanded role from what it has now.
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what about an mcable or ossc pro/retrotink4k-like upscaler?
 
NintenDuvo said:
In regards of Nate episode, Just a warning for those looking for some corroboration and positive insights from the rumors we got this past week then this episode isnt it, in my opinion this episode is filled with a lot of pessimism something this board doesnt need more of, again this is just MY OPINON
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I'm not finding it pessimistic, they're just speculating on different possibilities. Nate seems to believe something has to happen by next week.
 
Steve said:
Historically when does Nintendo reveal console/handheld? Like June would have make a lot of sense, but with the death of E3 and leaving it behind for for digital presentation. There’s now a slim chance of happening.

Like I’m feeling an October reveal, but a June one would be extremely welcome.
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Of course, personal feeling and all, but i think it would be bad for their business year if they reveal the system too early, like in summer.

Switch has to carry the year, it has to manage a holiday season on it's own, with a line-up that's likely not going to set the world on fire. Even taking into consideration that they will likely announce more games for the latter half of the year before July.
 
Bonejack said:
Of course, personal feeling and all, but i think it would be bad for their business year if they reveal the system too early, like in summer.

Switch has to carry the year, it has to manage a holiday season on it's own, with a line-up that's likely not going to set the world on fire. Even taking into consideration that they will likely announce more games for the latter half of the year before July.
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Imagine if Geoff Keighley somehow convinced Nintendo to reveal the Switch 2 in the summer showcase, it’s extremely unlikely, but it would be funny.

But in reality I see them giving the Switch 2 a codename soon, like NX2 then revealed it in October. Meanwhile the remaining year would be ports like prime 2-3 and Zelda, a possible DK game and prime 4.

Like with the digital showcase, Nintendo can practically reveal the Switch 2 whenever they want, since they have the most popular digital showcase out of any company. Like I’m quite confident we might get a Switch 2 direct that is about 5-15 minutes long and hear which third party studio will be working for the Switch 2 (prime candidate is Sega)
 
My Tulpa said:
I don't believe Nintendo is trying to make a profit off this new hardware.

I think they would love to be able to break even as much as possible that first year, and be somewhat ok with taking a slight loss so as this thing doesnt have too much a sticker shock.
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They want to make a profit off hardware even if the margins are thin. We saw this with Lite & OLED; so you don’t necessarily need an exorbitantly priced device to do this. I doubt they wanna start taking losses on hardware when there is no good reason to.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
They want to make a profit off hardware even if the margins are thin. We saw this with Lite & OLED; so you don’t necessarily need an exorbitantly priced device to do this. I doubt they wanna start taking losses on hardware when there is no good reason to.
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I mean… they did it to the 3DS and Wii U, but maybe the profit margin will be extremely thin this time around.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
They want to make a profit off hardware even if the margins are thin. We saw this with Lite & OLED; so you don’t necessarily need an exorbitantly priced device to do this. I doubt they wanna start taking losses on hardware when there is no good reason to.
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It's not at all clear that any future dedicated gaming device can be

1. Reasonably powerful
2. Reasonably priced
3. Sold at a reasonable profit

Even after expensing all of the R&D costs, the PS5 (made on the last good node ever made) is barely profitable four years later.
 
My thoughts on @NateDrake ’s podcast:

He’s absolutely right about investors getting restless and that causing stock to dip. The only thing I would add to that is that it is unlikely the stock keeps dropping too much more. Nintendo has a core set of investors that will not sell and the decision makers at Nintendo know that.

I also do not expect anything regarding Switch 2 in a May but I do expect an official mention in June. Not at any direct but rather the annual shareholders meet.

My expectations:
Mention: June 2024
First reveal: September 2024
Full reveal: January 2025
Release: March 2025
 
NintenDuvo said:
In regards of Nate episode, Just a warning for those looking for some corroboration and positive insights from the rumors we got this past week then this episode isnt it, in my opinion this episode is filled with a lot of pessimism something this board doesnt need more of, again this is just MY OPINON
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FFc-PifVUAABHaM.jpg:large
 
ertaboy356b said:
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Can anyone summar- *shot*
  • Happy 51st birthday MVG!
  • Months of historical Nintendo news
    • May
      • Investor's briefing (7th)
      • Nate: Do you think Nintendo will come out with a blanket statement a la "NX will release this FY17", or ignore hardware?
      • MVG: Much as I want to believe they'll reveal plans for next-generation hardware, "gonna stick my money on Furukawa being the safest Nintendo president of all time", no new information will be shared beyond existing games and commitments
      • Nate: if they make no mention, as an investor I would have serious questions as they're getting restless. By this point leading up to Switch, we at least had a code name
    • June
      • MS will have their showcase (literally announced an hour ago), SGF, and Nintendo
      • Nintendo has had partner showcases in June, however as there is no general direct yet this year, makes more sense to offer a full size direct to discuss the latter half of this year
      • Metroid Prime 4? Luigi's Mansion 2 HD? TP/WW HD?
      • May be an opportunity to start showcasing plans for next gen, but a Direct might not be the best delivery
      • Nostalgia for E3 season; "I wouldn't mind if 'one last thing' was a CG model of Switch 2 and a generic 'Coming 2025' to give people something." - Nate
    • July
      • Nintendo's full IR calendar isn't currently available, but it is when they have their Q1 report ready
      • Switch Lite was announced in June, Switch OLED announced in July, but we can't look at them for historical trends as these were just social media announcements
    • August
      • A busy month for the industry with Gamescom, PAX East, Nintendo Live @ Sydney
        • Nintendo skipping Gamescom is nothing to read into
        • Not really a big event for them anyways
        • They've met with 3rd party partners for technical demos, there's no benefit to rehashing the same information
        • Gamescom (EU) = GDC (NA) = Tokyo Game Show (JPN); none of them are really an 'E3' equivalent
        • Obviously, a little bitter about the leaks
      • It wouldn't make sense/wouldn't be fair to announce Switch 2 would be available at NLive for those who would have passed on tickets, a lot of angry media/customers as a result
    • September
      • TGS does typically have a General Direct leaning into early 2025
      • If the system is scheduled for March 2025, there should at least be a general acknowledgment by then to show confidence
      • There needs to be tangible news of substance going into the holidays
        • Maybe plans announced in September, a trailer for October
      • MVG feels confident by now that we would have heard something
      • Nate says if September comes and goes without news, early 2025 is out the window
      • Makes sense to find a quiet month of news to reveal the system where they'll have two weeks or so to themselves
    • Early 2025/January
      • Major event to showcase pricing, release date, controllers, games, etc. if they want to replicate the Switch 1 marketing strategy
      • If it's not coming in March, January is a nothing month
  • MVG: "It's a matter of dominoes" - if September has something, then January will have something, meaning the March release is a safe bet
  • Nate with the anarchy: Nintendo is silent until January, announces the event and then it comes in March anyways, how annoyed would you be as an investor (despite the multitude of leaks by now), but also as a consumer that's budgeting month to month who bought a PS5 Pro thinking Nintendo has nothing planned?
    • MVG: People may forgive if it's a nice enough package that irons out so many of the kinks that plagued Switch (drift), offers a new 3D Mario and Mario Kart game, it might be enough to mitigate the frustration
  • The lack of announcements also hurt developers who aren't on the VIP list and still waiting to get a dev kit
  • MVG: Devs may be looking for 12 months, minimum 9 months, to have a dev kit and provide a vertical slice of a game for Nintendo's marketing. Does depend on scope of project, but that should cover most scenarios
  • Indie studios don't have the pull to get a meeting with Nintendo even if you really want to get a project on Switch 2; they're treated like general public in terms of released news
  • Doomsday scenario: Could Switch 2 launch in late Spring/early Summer 2025? (NOT SPECULATION; JUST A CONVERSATION STARTER)
    • MVG: there could be some likelihood where the system's timeline moves further along where it doesn't release until next FY, but this is all dependent on how news is disseminated this year. There's an equal chance they could turn around quickly with a strong launch of games to maintain strong sales. On the fence, but this year is pivotal for Nintendo.
    • Nate: if the year gets deeper with no news while sitting on pins and needles, September appears to be the point of no return to still launch the system this FY
  • Stream lab questions
Did I miss anything?
 
Podcast captures many of my current thoughts on strategy (also doubt on them unceremoniously dropping Metroid Prime 4 as the holiday title, I'm still sticking to them using it as a cross-gen showcase). I hope there will be at least a mention of the successor console coming at the May or June investor meetings but I'm not expecting an actual reveal until the summer direct or a separate late-summer event.
 
Steve said:
I mean… they did it to the 3DS and Wii U, but maybe the profit margin will be extremely thin this time around.
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And those two devices combined caused Nintendo to go into the red for the first time. They had to salvage that generation & incurring loss on a device that’s profitable at its original price point was the way to do so.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It's not at all clear that any future dedicated gaming device can be

1. Reasonably powerful
2. Reasonably priced
3. Sold at a reasonable profit

Even after expensing all of the R&D costs, the PS5 (made on the last good node ever made) is barely profitable four years later.
Click to expand...
What do we define as reasonable since I expect margins to be pretty thin & remain that way for a bit. If that’s the way it has to be for the foreseeable future then I think Nintendo is fine with it.
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It's not at all clear that any future dedicated gaming device can be

1. Reasonably powerful
2. Reasonably priced
3. Sold at a reasonable profit

Even after expensing all of the R&D costs, the PS5 (made on the last good node ever made) is barely profitable four years later.
Click to expand...
how do you define a console that is reasonably powerful, reasonably priced and have a good margin for profit?
 
0
Lozjam said:
Plenty of games had a ton of time only to flop.

Suicide Squad is a famous example that took over 10 years to create.

Nintendo engineers are regular people, that are being treated very well though. Nintendo keeps talent, and allows people to hone their craft. They don't do bullshit layoffs for their developers, they properly scope and manage their games.

That makes the biggest difference out of everything. Because, how can you make something good when you are constantly hopping companies every 18 months just to be laid off again and start over at another project. There is no incentive to really hone everything.

Also, the fact that Nintendo includes everyone on the team in the creative process too.
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That has been my whole point concerning time. Nintendo's people are both very talented at what they do, plus they have great management, a focused vision of what is to occur, and they have the time to do the work.

Games that have a lot of time for development, but still turn out shit are the failure of the teams involved, and/or management, and a lack of focus. Because Nintendo already has solved the typical Western-style methods for development of "Go! Go! Go!", all they need is time to make a great game.

Couple more examples of games that had such long development times, but turned out mostly meh were Too Human, and Duke Nukem Forever. Had all the time they needed, but a lack of focus, failure in leadership, changing of platforms also didn't help, plus in the case with Too Human, lawsuits.

It is also why I'm not terribly concerned regarding Metroid Prime 4 because Nintendo are overseeing the project. But don't be fooled, MP4 will either be the best game since Super Metroid, or end up like Metroid Other M. I don't see any in between. As long as they have a proper focus, the right leadership, and a talented enough crew on hand, they can take all the time they require to make it right.
 
Shoulder said:
That has been my whole point concerning time. Nintendo's people are both very talented at what they do, plus they have great management, a focused vision of what is to occur, and they have the time to do the work.

Games that have a lot of time for development, but still turn out shit are the failure of the teams involved, and/or management, and a lack of focus. Because Nintendo already has solved the typical Western-style methods for development of "Go! Go! Go!", all they need is time to make a great game.

Couple more examples of games that had such long development times, but turned out mostly meh were Too Human, and Duke Nukem Forever. Had all the time they needed, but a lack of focus, failure in leadership, changing of platforms also didn't help, plus in the case with Too Human, lawsuits.

It is also why I'm not terribly concerned regarding Metroid Prime 4 because Nintendo are overseeing the project. But don't be fooled, MP4 will either be the best game since Super Metroid, or end up like Metroid Other M. I don't see any in between. As long as they have a proper focus, the right leadership, and a talented enough crew on hand, they can take all the time they require to make it right.
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Or it could be just fine and a pretty good Doom Eternal ripoff.
 
I have a hard time believing MP4 could turn out bad, but it may be playing it safe. If they play it very safe, it may not do much to build upon the existing formula. If they go this route, I could see it being met with mixed reception. Lots of review scores in the 8 to 8.5 range. Still good, but nothing revolutionary.
 
Goodtwin said:
I have a hard time believing MP4 could turn out bad, but it may be playing it safe. If they play it very safe, it may not do much to build upon the existing formula. If they go this route, I could see it being met with mixed reception. Lots of review scores in the 8 to 8.5 range. Still good, but nothing revolutionary.
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Yeah, there’s definitely a bunch of ways this ends up just being fine.

FF15 was released 9 years after Vs XIII was announced and was like… An 83. Not great and not a disaster.
 
ertaboy356b said:
We used to have several PS2 at home, none of the games. It's a glorified DVD player. The console count should be cut by half if you ask me 🤣.
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Interestingly, the total Software Sales for the PS2 was 1.383 billion. Compare that with the now apparently 160 million PS2's that were sold (If Mr. Sony dude is anything to go by), that comes out to an attach rate of 8.6 Games per system, which ain't too shabby. Even at 153 million, which was long determined to be the total hardware sales of the PS2, that's a solid attach rate of 9 games per system.

The Switch, as of the last reportings, sat at 139 million hardware, and 1.200 billion games. Attach Rate: 8.6 games/System

The Wii? 921 million Software, and 101 million hardware with an Attach rate of 8.6 games

Even the dominating Nintendo DS, with its massive 154 million systems sold, only managed 948 million in software for an attach rate of a meager 6.1 games.

Even though the PS2 was a glorified DVD Player, the people who did buy games for it, managed to offset the folks who only used it for playing movies.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Or it could be just fine and a pretty good Doom Eternal ripoff.
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Doom clones have been a gaming staple since 1993 after all.
 
Nintendo may chose to make the Switch Next more profitable at launch than the Switch, simply because of cross-gen. The Switch strategy was really smart - don't lose money on the hardware, but don't worry about making any either on day one. If a customer buys a single game, you've made money, and everyone will buy games.

But with Switch Next,, Nintendo could very well see users buy hardware and not buy games, especially if there are free "upgrade" patches for evergreens. Or at least not buy games they wouldn't have bought anyway if the launch titles are cross gen.

And with Switch Next, Nintendo has had a long time to develop the hardware. There may not be as many options for making it more profitable down the line, with things like a node shrink, or screen multisourcing.

But I think the overall strategy is Nintendo's usual overall strategy - only compete with yourself if at all possible. Nintendo will price aggressively, in order to cross over from "maybe for your birthday" to "definitely for your birthday" pricing, but won't cut margins just to price it low relative to the Xbox or Playstation.

I assume that they set a rough target price at around the same time they set target performance, and I imagine that price will be in line with their strong historical trends. Nintendo can afford to ride out the storm of exchange rate shifts and inflation because they set their price sanely on day one for long term business, and then don't shift it unless they absolutely have to.
 
oldpuck said:
Nintendo may chose to make the Switch Next more profitable at launch than the Switch, simply because of cross-gen. The Switch strategy was really smart - don't lose money on the hardware, but don't worry about making any either on day one. If a customer buys a single game, you've made money, and everyone will buy games.

But with Switch Next,, Nintendo could very well see users buy hardware and not buy games, especially if there are free "upgrade" patches for evergreens. Or at least not buy games they wouldn't have bought anyway if the launch titles are cross gen.

And with Switch Next, Nintendo has had a long time to develop the hardware. There may not be as many options for making it more profitable down the line, with things like a node shrink, or screen multisourcing.

But I think the overall strategy is Nintendo's usual overall strategy - only compete with yourself if at all possible. Nintendo will price aggressively, in order to cross over from "maybe for your birthday" to "definitely for your birthday" pricing, but won't cut margins just to price it low relative to the Xbox or Playstation.

I assume that they set a rough target price at around the same time they set target performance, and I imagine that price will be in line with their strong historical trends. Nintendo can afford to ride out the storm of exchange rate shifts and inflation because they set their price sanely on day one for long term business, and then don't shift it unless they absolutely have to.
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What I can see is similar when they provided the Wii to Wii U Virtual Console upgrade, which was a few bucks or something if I remember correctly. For Switch 1 games, which I strongly maintain will work on Switch 2, will be patched to work better on Switch 2 hardware, but it will come at a cost.

I highly doubt it'll be like Xbox's Smart Delivery feature, and more like Sony's approach, though I wouldn't rule out a hybrid of the two.
 
Shoulder said:
What I can see is similar when they provided the Wii to Wii U Virtual Console upgrade, which was a few bucks or something if I remember correctly. For Switch 1 games, which I strongly maintain will work on Switch 2, will be patched to work better on Switch 2 hardware, but it will come at a cost.

I highly doubt it'll be like Xbox's Smart Delivery feature, and more like Sony's approach, though I wouldn't rule out a hybrid of the two.
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Some people here mentioned it, but having the patches be part of NSO, in my opinion seems like the most likely option.

Like with NSO you’ll get a monthly of highly upgraded first party games, like Botw and totk would be the first games to rollout.

Sadly there’s a high possibility of the subscription getting a price hike, like add patches and maybe Dreamcast and GameCube and call it a day and I can see most consumer not minding it.

Like I don’t know how long it takes to patch game for NG hardware, since Fallout 4 and last of us part 2 (director cut) probably took a year.
 
i expect the full reveal will be in June/July/August no later with the first official mention next week or in June. why so early potentially? because manufacturing is kicking off roughly when it would have for the 2024 launch and they won't have the luxury of holding it back any longer. just my take, it certainly won't be as late as October as something tells me mass production will be in full swing before then.
 
0
oldpuck said:
Nintendo may chose to make the Switch Next more profitable at launch than the Switch, simply because of cross-gen. The Switch strategy was really smart - don't lose money on the hardware, but don't worry about making any either on day one. If a customer buys a single game, you've made money, and everyone will buy games.

But with Switch Next,, Nintendo could very well see users buy hardware and not buy games, especially if there are free "upgrade" patches for evergreens. Or at least not buy games they wouldn't have bought anyway if the launch titles are cross gen.

And with Switch Next, Nintendo has had a long time to develop the hardware. There may not be as many options for making it more profitable down the line, with things like a node shrink, or screen multisourcing.

But I think the overall strategy is Nintendo's usual overall strategy - only compete with yourself if at all possible. Nintendo will price aggressively, in order to cross over from "maybe for your birthday" to "definitely for your birthday" pricing, but won't cut margins just to price it low relative to the Xbox or Playstation.

I assume that they set a rough target price at around the same time they set target performance, and I imagine that price will be in line with their strong historical trends. Nintendo can afford to ride out the storm of exchange rate shifts and inflation because they set their price sanely on day one for long term business, and then don't shift it unless they absolutely have to.
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I agree with them making the hardware more profitable. They already have tons of people in the ecosystem and they've already iterated that they want seamless accounts so people will already have their digital (and physical) library carry over.

Though I can't see it being more than $399USD.
 
I think what some people are forgetting is Breath of the Wild was extensively showed months before the Switch launch.
Nintendo won't wait until 2 months (January) before Switch 2 launches to show their new, amazing 3D Mario.
 
Homura said:
I think what some people are forgetting is Breath of the Wild was extensively showed months before the Switch launch.
Nintendo won't wait until 2 months (January) before Switch 2 launches to show their new, amazing 3D Mario.
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if this game has been in development for 6+ years in the scheme of things it's in it's final stretch. hardware reveal = game reveal can't really have one without the other.
 
Homura said:
I think what some people are forgetting is Breath of the Wild was extensively showed months before the Switch launch.
Nintendo won't wait until 2 months (January) before Switch 2 launches to show their new, amazing 3D Mario.
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But it was shown as a Wii U game. If the new 3D Mario is a Switch 2 game, there's no reason to show it.
 
I'm halfway through in Nate's podcast, and it gives me a bit hope that we get something next week.

The fact that Furukawa said in february they were unable to tell there was new hardware, makes it hopeful that they are able now. And we have nothing to look after Luigi's Mansion in June, and they need to spill the beans about their plans in this fiscal year. That goes for both hardware and software.

But like Nate said, if they acknowlegde the thing in the may briefing, third party's have much more time to announce their plans in the upcoming 10/9 month's.

But for investor and consumer like, it'll be a huge relief to hear that it is officially coming, so people don't have to overthink to buy another console because ''Nintendo is radiosilent''. If Nintendo would choose to announce the system, say 2 months before release, people might have already bought something else.

I can dig those thought process, yeah. So eventually, I really hope there is the confirmation of the system.

But since they have to show their plans for the fiscal year, I might think there might be a Direct aswell, to at least show of the games of 2024, instead of letting to wait us another month. Therefore, if there is a May Direct, there could be a reveal trailer in in June.
 
Apenknul said:
I'm halfway through in Nate's podcast, and it gives me a bit hope that we get something next week.

The fact that Furukawa said in february they were unable to tell there was new hardware, makes it hopeful that they are able now. And we have nothing to look after Luigi's Mansion in June, and they need to spill the beans about their plans in this fiscal year. That goes for both hardware and software.

But like Nate said, if they acknowlegde the thing in the may briefing, third party's have much more time to announce their plans in the upcoming 10/9 month's.

But for investor and consumer like, it'll be a huge relief to hear that it is officially coming, so people don't have to overthink to buy another console because ''Nintendo is radiosilent''. If Nintendo would choose to announce the system, say 2 months before release, people might have already bought something else.

I can dig those thought process, yeah. So eventually, I really hope there is the confirmation of the system.

But since they have to show their plans for the fiscal year, I might think there might be a Direct aswell, to at least show of the games of 2024, instead of letting to wait us another month. Therefore, if there is a May Direct, there could be a reveal trailer in in June.
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i not feeling confident at all, Nintendo will mention Switch sucessor at all, i feeling they will make us wait until the very end of the year or begining of next year, to least mention, Switch sucessor is real and launch in 2/3 months
 
LukasManak22 said:
For our dedicated video game platform business, Nintendo is currently developing a successor to Nintendo Switch™ console. This new platform will launch in March 2025 globally. Please look forward to more details in the future.
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OMG if I awake to a statement like this I would be on cloud nine for months until the reveal

Giancarlo said:
i not feeling confident at all, Nintendo will mention Switch sucessor at all, i feeling they will make us wait until the very end of the year or begining of next year, to least mention, Switch sucessor is real and launch in 2/3 months
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In this day and age that would be impossible since the system will have been well into mass production by then and let's not even get into all the accessories designed for it as well
 
In the new episode of The X Control in Brazil, PH, who was the primary source of the new console supposedly releasing in march 2025, said he thinks Metroid Prime 4 is coming out this year, still for Switch. Can't say if that's insider info or not, seems to be just his opinion.
 
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