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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Bonejack said:
Please, this isn't about Silksong.



Well, call me optimistic, but i think any japanese third party not being fully on-board day one didn't pay attention to any sales numbers, japanese ones or international ones, for the last 7 years.

Which would be ... kinda shocking if you can operate a business that way.



Well it might be late monday for the US due to time zones?
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Yes, sorry. Exactly my point haha. It's Tuesday, but due to time zones, we might see something Monday
 
Apenknul said:
Expected reveal would be in June, right? One month later, if they delay the system in the last weeks of February, they surely can change the reveal trailer date by one month aswell. That's how I see it, tho I do wanna mind that I actually expect little myself.

I assume you think the reveal is in september/oktober like what the current Switch did?
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Yeah, i think with the rumored delayed launch in March 25, they might try to do it like with Switch again. So PR announcement coming up in March, Switch 1 Direct in June, a reveal video sometime in fall, closer to the holidays than to the summer though and then a presentation in Jan/Feb 25.

Potentially, they could skip the reveal video, if it's "just" like Switch 1 without any "revolutionary" feature. The concept doesn't need introduction anymore.

Though that's my personal thought, who the heck knows what the suits at Nintendo think. ^^
 
Bonejack said:
Yeah, i think with the rumored delayed launch in March 25, they might try to do it like with Switch again. So PR announcement coming up in March, Switch 1 Direct in June, a reveal video sometime in fall, closer to the holidays than to the summer though and then a presentation in Jan/Feb 25.

Potentially, they could skip the reveal video, if it's "just" like Switch 1 without any "revolutionary" feature. The concept doesn't need introduction anymore.

Though that's my personal thought, who the heck knows what the suits at Nintendo think. ^^
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I can see them doing a Teaser for at least one unannounced game already as early as June. While it’s a bit a different case, in early 2016 we already knew of BOTW coming in 2017. At the moment there is very little to look forward to concerning Nintendo and I‘m not sure if they want to keep it that way until September. Maybe it’s really Metroid Prime 4 and the announcement that it will get released on both consoles early next year. But I could imagine a short tease of something bigger like a new 3D Mario Game with simply saying 2025.
 
ertaboy356b said:
It's simple for 2 players since you'll just have to account the possibility of the 2 players. With more than that however, it gets tricky since you now have exponential possibilities. It's like how a lottery with 6 numbers and 49 possibilities per number have millions of outcomes.
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there's only one outcome regardless of player count
 
lexony said:
I can see them doing a Teaser for at least one unannounced game already as early as June. While it’s a bit a different case, in early 2016 we already knew of BOTW coming in 2017. At the moment there is very little to look forward to concerning Nintendo and I‘m not sure if they want to keep it that way until September. Maybe it’s really Metroid Prime 4 and the announcement that it will get released on both consoles early next year. But I could imagine a short tease of something bigger like a new 3D Mario Game with simply saying 2025.
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Metroid prime 4 in my opinion seems like an holiday game and the Switch Swansong, which in my opinion sounds fitting.

But doesn’t it mean that if Nintendo confirms existing hardware in May 7th for next year, then couldn’t third party developers just start mentioning which games they’ll port for the system.
 
So far there's one thing I can confirm for sure and which is even official.
Nintendo is going to push their blue ocean strategy on May 2.
 
lexony said:
I can see them doing a Teaser for at least one unannounced game already as early as June. While it’s a bit a different case, in early 2016 we already knew of BOTW coming in 2017. At the moment there is very little to look forward to concerning Nintendo and I‘m not sure if they want to keep it that way until September. Maybe it’s really Metroid Prime 4 and the announcement that it will get released on both consoles early next year. But I could imagine a short tease of something bigger like a new 3D Mario Game with simply saying 2025.
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I doubt they say a 3D Mario is coming before announcing the successor. People would expect it to be played on switch 1 then and it wouldn't sit well.
 
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I don't think there will be any announcements related to the new console on May 7, and I'm leaning towards mentioning it when the AGM is held in June.
 
lexony said:
I can see them doing a Teaser for at least one unannounced game already as early as June. While it’s a bit a different case, in early 2016 we already knew of BOTW coming in 2017. At the moment there is very little to look forward to concerning Nintendo and I‘m not sure if they want to keep it that way until September. Maybe it’s really Metroid Prime 4 and the announcement that it will get released on both consoles early next year. But I could imagine a short tease of something bigger like a new 3D Mario Game with simply saying 2025.
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Dunno, if anything, feeling the only game that could be announced this way with that "ominous" 2025 date would be a cross-gen game.
 
ILikeFeet said:
I think they'll give the system the hardware to hit their targets. They want to keep getting ports, but they're not going to make a large device with a lot of cooling needs.

If they want games to output a 2160p image, they're gonna need the bandwidth to support
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I think it would be crazy if they go twice times in a row of not supporting 4K. I mean I understand the OLED couldn't because of thermal constraint.
Simpsons Recap said:
source: I've shipped commercial games with online and rollback netcode written by me on the Nintendo Switch
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Let's assume Nintendo has no intentions of mentioning the successor in any way whatsoever May 7th, even if their plan to release this fiscal year is still on. Now, what if an investor asks if new hardware is expected this fiscal year? At that point, is Nintendo obligated to be truthful to their investors and answer yes or can they simply say "We have no comment at this time."
 
GPKs3 said:
Let's assume Nintendo has no intentions of mentioning the successor in any way whatsoever May 7th, even if their plan to release this fiscal year is still on. Now, what if an investor asks if new hardware is expected this fiscal year? At that point, is Nintendo obligated to be truthful to their investors and answer yes or can they simply say "We have no comment at this time."
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Well they'll just pull the same card as last time:

- Official translation of Furukawa in relation to an investor question related to the timeframe for the launch of new hardware (Feb 6th 2024)
Regarding new hardware, we are unable to make any comments beyond saying that our company is constantly conducting research and development on new hardware and software. As we mentioned before, articles claiming to reference information released by Nintendo and other speculations have been appearing mainly on the internet lately. Information that has not been officially announced by Nintendo can mislead consumers and investors. We encourage you to exercise good judgment based on the information we provide on our official websites and social media accounts. It takes a long time and thorough planning to get ready for new hardware, and those plans are not impacted by whatever the latest business conditions might be.
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The above is what we call "Honesty by not talking about the truth". They are being honest, but they're just not providing any details
 
Steve said:
Metroid prime 4 in my opinion seems like an holiday game and the Switch Swansong, which in my opinion sounds fitting.

But doesn’t it mean that if Nintendo confirms existing hardware in May 7th for next year, then couldn’t third party developers just start mentioning which games they’ll port for the system.
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Metroid isn’t a big seller, isn’t a family friendly colorful holiday title and would probably sell more if it was attached to first 4 months new console hype. You got Mario 3D Universe day one, Pokémon Legends Z-A in April as a cross gen game you get Metroid in may or June, some cross gen aa games from July to September as well as some aaa 3rd party titles, and then Mario Kart X as the holiday game in October or November.
 
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Prime4 has been in development for close to five years now, which is plenty of time, so hopefully retro is taking this long because they need to continue to polish their work and not because of development chaos.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I only want to drop by and say that if you want to imagine the switch NEXT and steam deck, envision this:

Switch 2 is a bus that can carry 30 people but only travels at max 25MPH/~40KPH, while the deck is a pickup truck that can carry 10 people but only travels max 45MPH/~72KPH, and the destination is a stop that is 10Miles/ ~16Kilometers away and you need to deliver 100 people, who will get to the 100 people delivery the fastest?


Food for thought.
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I'll try to see if my math is good; I'd prefer metric but the imperial units are more easily divisible

Switch 2 bus: 25 mph = 5 miles in 12 minutes. 30 people brought to a destination in 24 minutes (+ round trip to pick the other people up = 48 minutes). 48 minutes * 3 full round trips + 1 one-way trip = 2h48m to complete the journey

Steam Deck truck: 45 mph = 10 miles in ~13m20s (13.333...2 minutes). 10 people brought to a destination in that time (+ round trip = 26m40s). 26m40s * 9 full round trips + 1 one-way trip = 4h13m20s

In conclusion fund our public infrastructure!!!

Bonejack said:
One week to the potential announcement. (Not reveal.)
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P4bl0 said:
One week to the potential reveal. (Not announcement.)
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ertaboy356b said:
It's simple for 2 players since you'll just have to account the possibility of the 2 players. With more than that however, it gets tricky since you now have exponential possibilities. It's like how a lottery with 6 numbers and 49 possibilities per number have millions of outcomes.
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You're too focused on the "game predicts user input" part. Inputs are polled 60 times within a second (for a 60fps game). The game doesn't need some super complex logic which looks into all possible scenarios and decide what is the most likely one. If the game just assume "all players are pressing the exact same buttons they did 16.6ms ago" they will be right most of the time. Think about how many button presses you do every second, and how far is that from 60.

With 4 players, the game will be wrong more often and it will take longer to calculate the new state from though.

kvetcha said:
lol, what
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You have a state and you have a set of inputs. There should only be one outcome.
ex: State: all characters are on the ground, Input: Player 1 pressed dpad right, Player 2 and 4 did nothing, Player 3 pressed jump button. Outcome: character 1 moved to the left and started the walking animation, character 2 and 4 are on the same place, Player 3 moved up and started the jumping animation.

Then a lag happens and the game assumes they continued the same. Single outcome: Char 1 moved even more to the left and 3 even more up.

Then the game receives the inputs and after a while Player 1 pressed jump button too. Then the game rewind the assumptions to the frame it predicted wrong and recalculate the outcome: Char 1 moved even more to the left and up, while 3 even more up.

Problem is that if the game is on Frame 6 and it predicted Frame 3 wrong, for example, then it has to recalculate the correct state for Frames 3, 4, 5, 6 AND 7 before it can display the 7th frame. So it needs the headroom to calculate 5 states and still have time to render the frame within 16.6ms or the game will freeze (assuming 60fps).
 
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ertaboy356b said:
That makes sense if the outcome is always whatever is the last input.
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this is one of the foundations of rollback netcode

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It feels like it should be easier in some ways to do rollback in Smash because Smash has like 8 frames of input delay relative to like 3 or 4 for most modern fighters.
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having some extra input delay helps rollback to look less glitchy, and also makes it less likely that rollbacks will happen

in the end, it's always about how many ticks you can fit in a frame
 
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Simpsons Recap said:
writing realtime computer applications is a fun challenge that makes you think about things in real terms

it doesn't matter that another player COULD do several different things when they are only going to do exactly what they have already done
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RennanNT said:
You're too focused on the "game predicts user input" part. Inputs are polled 60 times within a second (for a 60fps game). The game doesn't need some super complex logic which looks into all possible scenarios and decide what is the most likely one. If the game just assume "all players are pressing the exact same buttons they did 16.6ms ago" they will be right most of the time. Think about how many button presses you do every second, and how far is that from 60.

With 4 players, the game will be wrong more often and it will take longer to calculate the new state from though.


You have a state and you have a set of inputs. There should only be one outcome.
ex: State: all characters are on the ground, Input: Player 1 pressed dpad right, Player 2 and 4 did nothing, Player 3 pressed jump button. Outcome: character 1 moved to the left and started the walking animation, character 2 and 4 are on the same place, Player 3 moved up and started the jumping animation.

Then a lag happens and the game assumes they continued the same. Single outcome: Char 1 moved even more to the left and 3 even more up.

Then the game receives the inputs and after a while Player 1 pressed jump button too. Then the game rewind the assumptions to the frame it predicted wrong and recalculate the outcome: Char 1 moved even more to the left and up, while 3 even more up.

Problem is that if the game is on Frame 6 and it predicted Frame 3 wrong, for example, then it has to recalculate the correct state for Frames 3, 4, 5, 6 AND 7 before it can display the 7th frame. So it needs the headroom to calculate 5 states and still have time to render the frame within 16.6ms or the game will freeze (assuming 60fps).
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Hadn't really been thinking about it in terms of tick/time slices. Makes sense.
 
Concernt said:
UTC doesn't change, and Japan doesn't observe Daylight Savings Time. 🫡
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I know that UTC dosen‘t change. I thought that they might adapt to that their major markets have daylight savings and release the Earning Release one hour early. But thinking about it and given what it is about, it‘s probably rather unlikely.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Well they'll just pull the same card as last time:

- Official translation of Furukawa in relation to an investor question related to the timeframe for the launch of new hardware (Feb 6th 2024)


The above is what we call "Honesty by not talking about the truth". They are being honest, but they're just not providing any details
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"We are unable..." Gives me a slight hope that they are now able for it. But then again, they even might be able in august.
 
GPKs3 said:
Let's assume Nintendo has no intentions of mentioning the successor in any way whatsoever May 7th, even if their plan to release this fiscal year is still on. Now, what if an investor asks if new hardware is expected this fiscal year? At that point, is Nintendo obligated to be truthful to their investors and answer yes or can they simply say "We have no comment at this time."
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we severals severals times, Nintendo will find a sort of lie to mislead everyone in believing theres no Switch sucessor, i doubt Nintendo will knowledge it next console, even if a investor ask then this, they will problaby answer/state this: we are looking into ways to show the appeal of Nintendo Switch, we have no plans to anounce and launch no new hardware this current fiscal year and the next one too.
 
LiC said:
Just to be sure, when you say forcing docked performance, I assume that also involved forcing docked mode? Since the "operating mode" (docked/handheld) and performance configurations (CpuXxxMhz, GpuXxxMhz) are technically independent settings, they're just normally changed together and have system validations constraining them. If a game did stop registering input in docked mode, it would be because of the operating mode, not the performance profile.
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Talking in Dock mode, is there a possibility that the new dock can help to incriase the resolution?

For example, the switch portable run games at 360p or 540p and DLSS 3.5 upscale it to 1080p. The dock version basically do the same thing, but in less time thanks to the extra power. Then the dock use that extra time to make a new upscale to 4K.

Is that possible?
 
Oh btw. that Mobapad / Vandal info has made it's way into mainstream german news sites with t-online.de reporting about it.
 
BDGAME said:
For example, the switch portable run games at 360p or 540p and DLSS 3.5 upscale it to 1080p. The dock version basically do the same thing, but in less time thanks to the extra power. Then the dock use that extra time to make a new upscale to 4K.

Is that possible?
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It is possible, but the results will not look good.

DLSS gets high quality results because it works inside the game engine, and has access to extra information. The dock doesn't have access to that extra info.

Instead, it would be better if the dock had a way of giving extra GPU power to the tablet. But you can't put a GPU in the tablet itself, because the connection between the handheld and the dock isn't powerful enough for that either.

So the dock needs a way to make the tablet more powerful, without extra GPU. There is a simple way to do that - just increase the GPU clock in the handheld and let the dock provide extra electricity.

And now we've circled back around to regular docked mode :)
 
omniryu said:
I think it would be crazy if they go twice times in a row of not supporting 4K. I mean I understand the OLED couldn't because of thermal constraint.
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I'm not worried about them missing 4K here. question will be will Nintendo do what it takes to reach it? 2D, indie-esque games only would be a disappointment. I would think Switch-level games hitting 4K output should be very achievable .

switch level games with RT tho 👀
 
YolkFolk said:
What’s the general feel on the reveal -

June or September/October?
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Historically when does Nintendo reveal console/handheld? Like June would have make a lot of sense, but with the death of E3 and leaving it behind for for digital presentation. There’s now a slim chance of happening.

Like I’m feeling an October reveal, but a June one would be extremely welcome.
 
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