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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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NateDrake said:
Last I had heard, they were more basic in comparison; but that info is out of date. They could have evolved into something closer to Prime 1 but that is my own speculation.
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Did anyone ever mention what sort of sales numbers the Remaster was aiming for. I assume if it exceeded those expectations that would increase the odds that they do the same Prime 1 treatment for Prime 2 and 3.
 
Foltzie said:
Well the potential speed difference is a problem that Nintendo has to solve (or ignore) if they opt for UFS based storage and use the available speed increase. There are solutions of course, some more expensive, some less elegant for users.
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~This is speculation territory, so read with caution.~

Assuming the rumour of Macronix providing Nintendo samples of Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash is true, Nintendo does decide to use Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash for the Game Cards for Nintendo's new console, and Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash is comparable to Samsung's 48-layer 3D NAND flash (e.g. PM953) to a degree, performance wise, then I don't think using UFS should be an issue. UFS 2.1 seems to be comparable, performance wise.
 
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I gotta ask, with how Nintendo has forecasted their sales for the fiscal year, how many of us genuinely believe that they'll just coast through the year with Zelda, small scale releases and DLC? Even if Drake doesn't come out this year, they'd need at least something to sustain sales and that's already hard enough with the Switch's steady decline in both hardware and software.
 
TomNookYankees said:
Did anyone ever mention what sort of sales numbers the Remaster was aiming for. I assume if it exceeded those expectations that would increase the odds that they do the same Prime 1 treatment for Prime 2 and 3
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jzero said:
I would personally love if MP 2 & 3 were shadowdropped on the next two Directs, leading to MP4 release date or window announcement.
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I would actually assume that the massive success of Prime 1 makes it way less likely that Prime 2+3 gets now also released, except Prime 4 gets a surprise additional delay. Prime 1 arrived just in a nice time before Prime 4, so people could replay the beloved classic and it also could reach new players to make them interested in Prime 4.
Releasing Prime 2+3 would endanger the sales of Prime 4, as it would oversaturate the market. So it potentially damage Prime 4 sales, especially if Prime 4 would release with a worse rating as Prime 2+3. Another reason is that Prime 2+3 didn't sell as well as 1 (Remastered already outperformed 2). Also Prime 4 unlikely will continue Prime 3, I wouldn't be also surprised if it is set after Fusion or Dread. All you might need to know you could get from playing Prime 1.
If Nintendo gave 2+3 the Prime 1 Remastered treadment, they will for sure rest for some time in the vault, maybe as a final send off for Switch. A nearly untouched HD Upscale maybe, but that would also just disappoint everyone after Remastered.

ReddDreadtheLead said:
Though, if Drake had say, 16GB of memory and only used 1-2GB for OS tasks, meaning 14-15GB for games, it would be an interesting choice. Probably overkill for a device like this, but devs complain about lack of memory sometimes(I’m lying, they always want more). 😹
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Chrome for REDACTED confirmed!
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
That’s not particularly what I’m focusing on or really getting at, what I’m focusing on really is that Nintendo has a size and scale that Eclipses all of these Portable Gaming PC manufactures combined, and they can make adoption for something like this, which is an open standard format, much easier.

And since it is a format that can allow for multiple manufacturers, such as SK Hynix, Samsung or even Micron or whoever else to make those, they can by themselves drive competition for this form of storage.


The fact that there are SD card readers that also can read UFS cards is already a big boost, that in and of itself can actually facilitate a more seamless transition (over generation) from one format to another.

The other option is CFExpress but that’s… well I think it isn’t compatible with the SD cards at all, and would require one extra slot maybe just for Micro SD cards.
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Fair, though I think that Nintendo single handedly pushing a "new" card formate would be weird, I know that Microsoft is literally doing the same thing, but it doesn't "seem" like Nintendo. I am however not willing to wager a lot of money on this outcome or the alternative of SD cards being fridge storage.

It is an implementation detail/decision without a clear "best" answer.
 
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Dakhil said:
~This is speculation territory, so read with caution.~

Assuming the rumour of Macronix providing Nintendo samples of Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash is true, Nintendo does decide to use Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash for the Game Cards for Nintendo's new console, and Macronix's 48-layer 3D NAND flash is comparable to Samsung's 48-layer 3D NAND flash (e.g. PM953) to a degree, performance wise, then I don't think using UFS should be an issue. UFS 2.1 seems to be comparable, performance wise.
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Neat, an option (if selected) that brings Game Cards to internal storage parity certainly suggest expansion storage would follow.
 
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for the people waiting on the English Q&A, it typically takes up to 2 days after the Japanese Q&A's release so it could (not 100% sure) be anytime tomorrow (US time).

I was searching around Discord where I posted something about an IR Q&A and saw that this was one last year was posted around 2am Pacific Time and I'm gonna link it here since it's kinda on-topic with the thread

 
Hosermess said:
I only wrote this out cause your post made me wonder if Nintendo postponed Drake to a smaller node so they could have a Lite ready at release. Then I talked myself out of it (sort of).
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Nintendo is highly likely to space out revisions, just because they're likely to make sell more that way. It keeps the sales pitch simpler at launch time, and value conscious customers will be thinking about a larger library over a few launch titles. Pushing out the Lite later gives them a second burst of marketing attention, and invigorates sales without requiring a price cut. A "premium" model like the OLED has similar logic.

Nintendo is getting a custom chip this time around, unlike the TX1, and will probably be better positioned to meet their needs over the course of the generation. And if you look at foundry roadmaps, I'd be hard pressed to bet that a node shrink would emerge that would be suitable for a cheaper product in the near future.

That's one of the reasons I've been conservative in my performance estimates - I think Mariko's heat output and battery life need to be the benchmark, instead of Erista's.
 
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TomNookYankees said:
Did anyone ever mention what sort of sales numbers the Remaster was aiming for. I assume if it exceeded those expectations that would increase the odds that they do the same Prime 1 treatment for Prime 2 and 3.
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There was never an official sales goal announced, but I would guess that it performed within expectations. Personally, I thought Prime Remastered might have a shot at outselling the original release, but that is completely off the table at this point. Selling just over a million copies is "ok" all things considering, but I do not see this changing Nintendo's mind about Metroid being one of their more niche franchises. Dread sold 3 million units and I think Prime 4 will outsell that, but not by much. Probably 3.5-5 million copies at best. I would love to see Prime 4 launch alongside Redacted and be a technical showpiece for the new hardware, but I am pretty confident that Prime 4 releases later this year regardless if new hardware comes out or not. Prime Remastered is a fantastic looking game, even if its doing a ton of fake and bake. So as long as they keep the scope of the game under control, and don't open things up too much beyond what they did in Prime 3, they should be able to make Prime 4 look just as good or better than Prime Remastered.
 
Isn't the financial impact from the movie going to be something like $500mm to $1bn (12-20% of lifetime revenue which includes box office, PVOD downloads, SVOD rights, and disc sales) on this year's results? If so, the decline in the earnings contribution from the dedicated games business is going to be significant. IP royalties have few incremental costs, so the 340bn JPY guidance for FYE 2024 net income would otherwise be around 220bn-270bn JPY. I am fairly confident we will see the debut of new hardware this fiscal year. Alternatively, we will hear of more movies and TV shows so investors won't think the IP income boost this year is a one-off. That wouldn't change the fact that the games business looks like a melting ice cube as things stand though and requires some attention.
 
D36 said:
I gotta ask, with how Nintendo has forecasted their sales for the fiscal year, how many of us genuinely believe that they'll just coast through the year with Zelda, small scale releases and DLC? Even if Drake doesn't come out this year, they'd need at least something to sustain sales and that's already hard enough with the Switch's steady decline in both hardware and software.
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I think only thing that is going to ignite sales above the trend, would be games that get people to upgrade from a regular unit to a OLED. I don't think there's much besides Zelda is going to do that. Prime 4 to a lesser degree sure, but I wouldn't expect the same response for most titles. Similarly we haven't heard anything about any further special edition consoles this year, so presumably Zelda is the last one for this year...maybe?

Point being, I'm not sure there's any software that will dramatically change the trajectory they are on or prop up the sales more than what Zelda and Mario movie are already going to do. The one casual/mainstream game that could entice some casual fence sitters is 2D Mario, but I'm not entirely sure that well isn't already exhausted at this point. I think the brunt of your sales at this point are people being late to the party, buying 2nd/3rd switches for their kids/family members, and people upgrading to OLEDs. Only the latter seems software dependent, but as I mentioned, I'm not sure what else would do what Zelda is doing currently.

I don't think they are actually going to hit 15m though. It's just a nice sounding number they won't really care that much about if they can still hit their revenue/profit goals as they did this year even after reducing their hardware forecast pretty significantly.
 
Thraktor said:
The article doesn’t seem to be based just on the slide, but also comments made by the CEO Robert Wu on an investor call. The article is reprinted here on Yahoo Finance, and quotes Wu directly:

Maybe some more transcripts to wait for alongside the English translation of Nintendo’s?
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Thanks for the link. Yes, both Mochizuki’s tweets and the article mentioned the CEO’s remarks. I’m somewhat skeptical of the accuracy of his account, because I could not locate any other Japanese press reporting the same. For example, what Wu said might be that Sharp is working with potential—not contracted—customers for a new line of panels.

We also know that Mochizuki sometimes misheard/misremembered things. One time he wrote that PS5 broke even, when no other press did nor was it in the official earnings report. In another occasion he claimed that Furukawa declined to comment on a new hardware question, while the official transcript showed otherwise. He also reported that Furukawa said Switch was still in the middle of its life cycle, when the last documentation of that quote was a few months prior to his reporting.
 
MrBones said:
I agree. I think that 15m number is really cocky with their (likely) tepid H2 software lineup.

I think, best case, we get DLC and a larger holiday title (like 2D Mario or DK) , but that's literally it. Expecting a big Summer Direct that unveils a blowout H2 with tons of unannounced games is delusional, unfortunately
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One big game and DLC is the probably the worst case scenario. They'll probably publish 2-3 retail games for the 2nd half apart from Pikmin 4.
MrBones said:
COVID only works so far as an excuse. Even without it it still would have been a terrible year 1st party lineup wise. Wouldn't have surprised me if they skipped 2020 E3 during a normal year.

There's a lot of parallels between 2016 and now. I don't think Nintendo has much to show this year besides TOTK and BOTW, they're fully gearing up for the Switch 2.
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I highly highly doubt that Nintnedo's original plan was to skip E3 2020 and have four Partner Minis instead. With no COVID they would have had an E3 2020 Direct and shown things like Age of Calamity, Splatoon 3, Fire Emblem Engage, SMT V and Monster Hunter Rise.
Armoured_Bear said:
Grumpy old man here but why do people use "on the daily", instead of just "daily"?
"As someone who uses OLED and LCD daily" is perfectly correct.
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I just love playing the Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom game on the Nintendo Switch system on the daily.
 
Foltzie said:
At least in the 1900s "entree" was used in the UK to refer to the course before the main course, usually a roasted meat. That carried over to the US, but since roast meat was more rare (as was 5+ course meals generally), entree became the main course for many folks, so the words use/definition followed.

I wanted to quote Eddie Izzard's UK's transition from French to English bit "Is this a male fork or a female fork?", "Its a fucking fork!", but alas I cannot find a transcript.

Im happy this thread has taken a trip into NPR A Way With Words territory.
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I didn't know of that history, thanks. I get up in the late 70s/80s in Scotland an environment very far from 5 course meal territory!
Now, as a French speaker who lived in France, even time in the USA I'm asked what I would like for an "entree" I'm sure I physically start twitching :)
 
TomNookYankees said:
Did anyone ever mention what sort of sales numbers the Remaster was aiming for. I assume if it exceeded those expectations that would increase the odds that they do the same Prime 1 treatment for Prime 2 and 3.
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FWIW the closest historical comparisons are probably Zero Mission, Metroid Prime Trilogy, and Samus Returns, all of which shipped far less than the 1 million Remastered has already done.
 
TomNookYankees said:
Did anyone ever mention what sort of sales numbers the Remaster was aiming for. I assume if it exceeded those expectations that would increase the odds that they do the same Prime 1 treatment for Prime 2 and 3.
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Goodtwin said:
Selling just over a million copies is "ok" all things considering, but I do not see this changing Nintendo's mind about Metroid being one of their more niche franchises. Dread sold 3 million units and I think Prime 4 will outsell that, but not by much. Probably 3.5-5 million copies at best..
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Nintendo positioned it as a budget title, dropped it in a dry space on the calendar, with little marketing push other than letting the shadow drop do the work. I'm sure they are extremely happy with a million units sold.

Prime specifically is a franchise that Nintendo makes exclusively for a Western audience. MP:R sold 50k units in Japan, lower than any other million seller in the Switch lifetime. I don't want to overstate the case, but NCL is still a Japanese company, and those things matter.
 
oldpuck said:
Prime specifically is a franchise that Nintendo makes exclusively for a Western audience. MP:R sold 50k units in Japan, lower than any other million seller in the Switch lifetime. I don't want to overstate the case, but NCL is still a Japanese company, and those things matter.
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Funny thing is, this probably makes Japan the region where Remastered comes closest to beating the original, which seems to have stopped around 80K.
 
oldpuck said:
Nintendo positioned it as a budget title, dropped it in a dry space on the calendar, with little marketing push other than letting the shadow drop do the work. I'm sure they are extremely happy with a million units sold.
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Yea, I did say that I thought it sold within Nintendo's expectations, but that is sort of my point, their expectations for Prime are lower than the majority of their first party IP's. Nintendo absolutely does fund certain titles to help diversify their software offerings on their consoles. Nintendo funded both Bayonetta 2 and Bayonetta 3 knowing that the ceiling for sales was lower than what they expect from pretty much any other first party titles they develop. You are correct that Prime is likely viewed in a similar way. It will never be a cash cow for Nintendo, but it does offer something that isn't the typical Nintendo experience, and helps broaden the appeal of the platform. So I don't know that I would say they are extremely happy with selling a million copies of Prime Remastered, I think that would have taken sales that really exceeded expectations, I do think its very acceptable. The limited availability of physical copies certainly suggest that Nintendo wasn't expecting huge numbers.
 
RaymondBryce said:
I just love playing the Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom game on the Nintendo Switch system on the daily.
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giphy.gif
 
mjayer said:
Personally I'd love if you shared the speculation as that would add important context...


Also, how do I post hidden content? lol
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Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.


But without the spaces.
 
ertaboy356b said:
Hope it's 3D 😂😂😂

Am I the only one who uses 3D on the 3DS exclusively?
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Lurked here forever. Great community. But had to chime in. Super Stable 3D would be fantastic. I read they only transitioned to 2DS because they had to to pay royalties to another company they lost a patent case 2. And it was because of the combo of the cameras plus the screen. Higher resolution bigger better screen, whether oled or Lcd with SS3D would be welcomed by me. But if its just micro led. That would be great too.
 
vapour_trail said:
Lurked here forever. Great community. But had to chime in. Super Stable 3D would be fantastic. I read they only transitioned to 2DS because they had to to pay royalties to another company they lost a patent case 2. And it was because of the combo of the cameras plus the screen. Higher resolution bigger better screen, whether oled or Lcd with SS3D would be welcomed by me. But if its just micro led. That would be great too.
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Super Stable 3D requires a camera.
 
Kazuyamishima said:
I loved the Wii u, I use to play for 8 hrs a day and never had problems with the ergonomics of it
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I'm suprised that the battery of my DS Lite hasn't ballooned despite playing it while charging. My 3DS on the other hand had to go through surgery to replace the battery that was on the verge of frying the system.
 
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