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This is untrue: Nintendo Switch had a little over four months, for instance. Of those, however, marketing didn't start in earnest until January, leaving just two months of "full throttle" marketing.
Dunno, of course they're going to promote the shit out of it. But honestly, if we're really talking about a system that's more evolution than revolution ... wouldn't it technically be enough when mainstream media reports "Nintendo has announced the next-gen successor to Switch" to get what it is?
Switch 1 had a couple of factors that played into Nintendo being more upfront, and way earlier about NX / Switch than they usually are.
But to be fair, i would say that the absolute mininum of promotion time between reveal and launch would be 3 months.
How you two explain this to me, tho. It makes sense. I forgot about the promo getting started a lot from January. So yeah, maybe it's gonna be the same this time. We'll see, I just don't wanna get to excited about early release, since I also thought the reveal was gonna be January.
People need to remember with Switch or NX (whatever they initially called it) - Nintendo was not expecting a sales hit because Wii U was already a dead duck and 3DS was at the end of its lifecycle - I think they will want a close release and initial launch.
We’ll know more from their sales forecasts at year end but I expect the reveal and release to be close.
i mean, ngl...the jaggies almost feel synonymous with the artstyle of BOTW/TOTK at this point lmao. it's kinda one of those nintendo EPD things where they somehow manage to create beauty out of severe limitations.
I see summer launch talk is picking back up. While I myself have fallen off the bandwagon, I have spoke with wall street types that are still convinced of May 2024 even despite everything going on. One of the original dudes I spoke with whom I figure as the best chance to have inside info basically double downed on it. I’ve expected big selling in Nintendo stock and it hasn’t really happened. A bunch of scaled back to bank profit but remain in to some degree.
Still feels low chance but not impossible. Gonna be honest, I feel more disconnected with the general feel of things now than I ever have as an investor. There is a lot of head scratching decisions/events going on.
I know I'm perhaps putting two and two to get five here, but I want to point out two things:
Nintendo has specifically said current business goings-on will not affect new hardware, and that plans for new hardware take a very long time. Even just logically, we know moving hardware dates around is difficult, especially close to launch.
Investors, apparently, bet on a May launch- and some still do, having held this position for some time. To the point it's affected the price of the stock.
If you combine these, if we assume that investors have reliable information, that they invest based on the most likely outcome based on what they know, this means May was the plan in January, and changes in business operations have not changed the launch date, and cannot, due to the sheer scale of hardware launch planning.
While global shipping bottlenecks have arisen, Nintendo has dealt with shipping disruption before, and like with Nintendo Switch's launch, will gladly launch WITHOUT enough product to meet demand rather than delay launch. The business situation has changed since December, yes, but Nintendo's plans haven't necessarily changed to match. There are options for them, there are still 50% of the Suez's intended cargo going through the Suez, while the alternative route adds several weeks, yes, but transoceanic shipping takes weeks at the best of times, and delays can be and are planned around.
Nintendo is no stranger to this, either, Europe's Nintendo product supply has previously been bouyed by air freight to avoid delays, and the initial cost of that, much like the launch of Nintendo Switch, would certainly be worth having more stock on shelves.
While the situation has changed, ultimately the most impacted part of supply for Nintendo is increased maritime shipping times to Europe, but not Japan nor America. Due to the length of time maritime shipping already takes, they'd want to have planned to get systems into their destination countries (or at least continent) far ahead of launch time, which could, and really should, be more time than the delay caused by Cape of Good Hope shipping routes. Relying on just in time delivery from maritime shipping would never have been entirely realistic, and they have executed plans to circumvent such before and have every confidence they can again, if they want to.
To be clear, I am not certain of this outcome, but I do think it's worth considering as a possibility, especially if noise around a May launch is still present in certain relevant circles.
How you two explain this to me, tho. It makes sense. I forgot about the promo getting started a lot from January. So yeah, maybe it's gonna be the same this time. We'll see, I just don't wanna get to excited about early release, since I also thought the reveal was gonna be January.
16GB of RAM was a prediction as well, though I got the vibe that he was a little more confident in this prediction. Maybe he has heard some birds singing to the same tune, but not enough to make a confirmation?
I know I'm perhaps putting two and two to get five here, but I want to point out two things:
Nintendo has specifically said current business goings-on will not affect new hardware, and that plans for new hardware take a very long time. Even just logically, we know moving hardware dates around is difficult, especially close to launch.
Investors, apparently, bet on a May launch- and some still do, having held this position for some time. To the point it's affected the price of the stock.
If you combine these, if we assume that investors have reliable information, that they invest based on the most likely outcome based on what they know, this means May was the plan in January, and changes in business operations have not changed the launch date, and cannot, due to the sheer scale of hardware launch planning.
While global shipping bottlenecks have arisen, Nintendo has dealt with shipping disruption before, and like with Nintendo Switch's launch, will gladly launch WITHOUT enough product to meet demand rather than delay launch. The business situation has changed since December, yes, but Nintendo's plans haven't necessarily changed to match. There are options for them, there are still 50% of the Suez's intended cargo going through the Suez, while the alternative route adds several weeks, yes, but transoceanic shipping takes weeks at the best of times, and delays can be and are planned around.
Nintendo is no stranger to this, either, Europe's Nintendo product supply has previously been bouyed by air freight to avoid delays, and the initial cost of that, much like the launch of Nintendo Switch, would certainly be worth having more stock on shelves.
While the situation has changed, ultimately the most impacted part of supply for Nintendo is increased maritime shipping times to Europe, but not Japan nor America. Due to the length of time maritime shipping already takes, they'd want to have planned to get systems into their destination countries (or at least continent) far ahead of launch time, which could, and really should, be more time than the delay caused by Cape of Good Hope shipping routes. Relying on just in time delivery from maritime shipping would never have been entirely realistic, and they have executed plans to circumvent such before and have every confidence they can again, if they want to.
To be clear, I am not certain of this outcome, but I do think it's worth considering as a possibility, especially if noise around a May launch is still present in certain relevant circles.
First off, Those are great points and I recognize the possibility I might be placing too much significance (as it relates to Nintendo’s plans) on certain events as an indicator of change.
The advance wars situation lives rent free in my mind. It was the correct move and I applauded Nintendo for it. They usually (not without flaws) read the room well.
Ive thought about maybe my own predictions are going in circles too much. I was not this “out of the loop” with the 3DS, Wii-U and Switch 1 launch. Usually I heard Wall Street talking about stuff earlier than insider reports from major publications. Of course a lot of it is BS too so learning to decipher what is actionable and what isn’t is a skill in and of itself.
Just rambling. This cycle has been tough to predict.
they said it's their speculation. just take it at face value. if they said it was new information they got from sources, they would have stated as such
My Xbox Series X controller started drifting after 100 hours or so, or just after a month. That, and the D-Pad is incredibly loud. Hideous controller all around.
Mine drifts too and the dpad is too loud BUT it is still the best dpad in terms of reliability and absolutely zero fake inputs. It's a joy to play fighting Games on it.
I see summer launch talk is picking back up. While I myself have fallen off the bandwagon, I have spoke with wall street types that are still convinced of May 2024 even despite everything going on. One of the original dudes I spoke with whom I figure as the best chance to have inside info basically double downed on it. I’ve expected big selling in Nintendo stock and it hasn’t really happened. A bunch of scaled back to bank profit but remain in to some degree.
Still feels low chance but not impossible. Gonna be honest, I feel more disconnected with the general feel of things now than I ever have as an investor. There is a lot of head scratching decisions/events going on.
I've had this vibe too but I understand the doubt. I'm going forward with a May prediction despite how silly it sounds. Furukawa's statements about wanting a shorter timeframe between reveal and launch is hard to interpret too. Personally, everyone being so certain that the console will reveal in Fall because "that's when it always happens" screams for a perfect opportunity for Nintendo to surprise and delight with a summer release.
I figured it might be fun to list my thoughts on why it could be great to launch in Summer :
Most Americans get their tax returns late April/Early may as most of them file last minute.
Kids are out of school and parents frequently look for ways to keep them busy.
September/October have been so packed with major releases recently that the meme has become how packed those months are.
PS5 Pro is rumored to be releasing this Christmas.
they said it's their speculation. just take it at face value. if they said it was new information they got from sources, they would have stated as such
On top of that, I think it may be wishful speculation. For people who never detach the joy cons, they would obviously prefer to do away with them in favor of built in controls more similar to Steam Deck. The Joy Cons always allow for some flex in the system when playing portably. It has never really bothered me, but I can understand why some people would prefer they go away.
Nintendo probably has the hours played in tabletop mode available to them, and unless its ridiculously low, I suspect they will want to retain that feature seeing how its one of the key marketable features for the system. Without the joy cons, would they even bother to include the kickstand for table top play? At that point the user would have to carry around a Pro Controller with them and that seems pretty clunky.
I'd be fine with them getting rid of Joy-Cons. I never used them and they are more trouble than they're worth IMO. Plus, I'd really love to get a proper D-Pad on the next Switch. Pro Controller is one of the GOAT controllers IMO.
I've had this vibe too but I understand the doubt. I'm going forward with a May prediction despite how silly it sounds. Furukawa's statements about wanting a shorter timeframe between reveal and launch is hard to interpret too. Personally, everyone being so certain that the console will reveal in Fall because "that's when it always happens" screams for a perfect opportunity for Nintendo to surprise and delight with a summer release.
I figured it might be fun to list my thoughts on why it could be great to launch in Summer :
Most Americans get their tax returns late April/Early may as most of them file last minute.
Kids are out of school and parents frequently look for ways to keep them busy.
September/October have been so packed with major releases recently that the meme has become how packed those months are.
PS5 Pro is rumored to be releasing this Christmas.
Yeah, while I've argued March and April before due to economic factors, those apply to May as well.
Due to a combination of Golden Week and American Tax Return season, alongside factors worldwide and in Europe, like exam season, end of year reports for students, the upcoming summer holidays, and the increased spending seen in predominantly Catholic countries following First Communion and Confirmation season, May is second only to the holiday season for consumer spending worldwide, at least in Nintendo's most relevant markets.
It's not a bad time to launch, all things considered.
16GB of RAM was a prediction as well, though I got the vibe that he was a little more confident in this prediction. Maybe he has heard some birds singing to the same tune, but not enough to make a confirmation?
I'm unsure if him talking about Switch 2 having backwards compability was a prediction or a report from Nate, previously he has been unsure about BC but now he seemed very sure about Switch 2 being BC.
Yeah, while I've argued March and April before due to economic factors, those apply to May as well.
Due to a combination of Golden Week and American Tax Return season, alongside factors worldwide and in Europe, like exam season, end of year reports for students, the upcoming summer holidays, and the increased spending seen in predominantly Catholic countries following First Communion and Confirmation season, May is second only to the holiday season for consumer spending worldwide, at least in Nintendo's most relevant markets.
It's not a bad time to launch, all things considered.
... Right up until the Direct next week is over and I actually have to deal with waiting for the console reveal instead of a presentation I'm going into with no expectations.
I'm unsure if him talking about Switch 2 having backwards compability was a prediction or a report from Nate, previously he has been unsure about BC but now he seemed very sure about Switch 2 being BC.
There is a decent chance that the upcoming Direct is more than just a partner showcase. There have been some long standing rumors for games like Metroid Prime 2 and Fire Emblem Remake. They could also focus on games like Princess Peach, Luigis Mansion and Paper Mario. So while the Direct may be propped up by a lot of smaller third party titles, there is a good chance they still label it as a standard Nintendo Direct.
After using my dad's PS5 to play the God of War Ragnarok DLC, I appreciate the simplicity of the Switch's UI so much. The PS5 menu is so damn bloated, loud, and noisy. I really hope they don't take notes from Sony for the home menu.
After using my dad's PS5 to play the God of War Ragnarok DLC, I appreciate the simplicity of the Switch's UI so much. The PS5 menu is so damn bloated, loud, and noisy. I really hope they don't take notes from Sony for the home menu.
I'd be fine with them getting rid of Joy-Cons. I never used them and they are more trouble than they're worth IMO. Plus, I'd really love to get a proper D-Pad on the next Switch. Pro Controller is one of the GOAT controllers IMO.
Not at all. It's funny because I got really good about not really caring about the thing and just enjoying the discussion. Now it feels tantalizingly close and I just wanna see it. It's like years worth of excitement set in all at once.
Now that I'm properly excited again, a Switch Lite OLED will be announced. Sorry. I've doomed us all.
Extremely based. Dpads are nice when done right, but more often than not some aspect of them just ain't right. Separating them into 4 different buttons prevents a lot of these problems and it's more precise as a result.
I've been impatient every since the Xbox stuff dropped last weekend way worse than usual. We're hearing a lot of chatter about all sorts of news, not just about the Switch 2, and I'm itching to get official info on all the rumors we've been hearing from the industry in the last couple of weeks.
After using my dad's PS5 to play the God of War Ragnarok DLC, I appreciate the simplicity of the Switch's UI so much. The PS5 menu is so damn bloated, loud, and noisy. I really hope they don't take notes from Sony for the home menu.
Extremely based. Dpads are nice when done right, but more often than not some aspect of them just ain't right. Separating them into 4 different buttons prevents a lot of these problems and it's more precise as a result.
Not at all. It's funny because I got really good about not really caring about the thing and just enjoying the discussion. Now it feels tantalizingly close and I just wanna see it. It's like years worth of excitement set in all at once.
Now that I'm properly excited again, a Switch Lite OLED will be announced. Sorry. I've doomed us all.
So how we only have 2 insiders saying it’s March reveal/announcemnet? You would think the bigger publications would have reported on this as well using their own sources.
It feels like nobody cared about the March reveal stuff from Nate. Outside of here it was really all about the speculated partner direct. Kind of odd but I guess there could be multiple reasons for that.
A better solution in addition to standard Joycons being included is to have official Joycon Pros. Thee should be designed in a way where comfort is prioritised, larger grips etc. Full size analog sticks. Similar to Hori Pros there should be a bit of plastic at the back so their is less flex when joycons are attached.
They can sell in 2 SKUs
Switch 2 LCD 256GB + Regular Joycond
Switch 2 OLED 500GB + Joycon Pros
$200 Price difference. Regular Joycons and Joycons Pros are also sold separately. Both SKUs marketed equally with Switch 2 OLED marketed with games like Metroid Prime, Call of Duty etc, while Switch 2 LCD is marketed with games like Mario Kart.
I'm curious as well, though I did like the simplicity of the Switch UI. I would like custom themes and music this time around. I'm really wanting(and praying for) a much more organized and faster eShop as well.
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