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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

But do you think they will remake a Switch 1 games from the ground up for Switch 2? I personally dont see that hapening.
Very unlikely, but there might be versions with better quality of assets and textures used. For games like Xenoblade, that'd already do wonders for the look of the landscapes.
 
You do not know it for a fact, as you are, I'm afraid, incorrect. Just because two devices have similar problems doesn't mean that those problems have the same causes - any more than having a fever means you can only have the flu, and not some other viral infection.

Sticks are always and will always be at least partially mechanical. Moving parts can fail. Failures will cause false inputs. False inputs will cause drift. That doesn't mean the failures will be always the same, or equally likely. Joy-con drift is much more common than drift in other devices, because the device is very thin. That's not controversial, it's pretty obvious once you've disassembled one.

Most sticks nowadays use potentiometers. They're accurate, cheap, and very flexible. But they're very vulnerable to dust. Worse than that, they create dust - there is a little graphite nub that moves along a strip as you move your stick. The graphite wears out, because all mechanical parts wear out - graphite is basically "pencil lead" and it creates little dust fragments.

PS5_DualSense_39-scaled.jpg

This is the stick in the Dual Sense. The two dark circles in the green square are the strips of the potentiometers. You'll notice that the strips are on the side of the assembly, which is a cube. Now compare to the Switch stick.


KIuu0BB_d.webp

Flat as a pancake, for obvious reasons. The black square has the potentiometer strips facing up, toward the controller itself. That means that as the graphite wears down the dust settles directly onto the potentiometer strips.

Worse, because the Joy-Con is so thin, when you put pressure on the stick, you're squeezing it from both sides. The forces the graphite to make stronger contact, which wears it out faster. The sticks are rated for a certain number of stick rotations over the course of their lifetime before the graphite is supposed to give up the ghost. It's highly likely that the additional back pressure is why the fail so much faster than they are rated for.

Ironically, the easiest fix is to increase that pressure, forcing the graphite to make stronger contact with the strip, and then recalibrating. It was called a "permanent" fix for drift, but it actually increases the rate at which the graphite wears out (though if it makes the controller usable in the interim, probably worth it).

So, yes, the thin size of the Joy-Con absolutely contributes to drift. All three console manufacturers use off-the-shelf sticks, and for cost reasons I imagine they'll continue to. It's unlikely that Nintendo can switch to the larger Dual Sense sized assembly, at even a modestly larger controller. So the better solution is an optical or hall effect stick. No clue how likely that is from a cost perspective
I'm very aware of all that, as someone who tried DIY fixes on my own due to living in a poor country where Joycons cost significantly more, but like you said in your own post, the dust problem is unrelated to the fact the joycons are dettachable controllers and have much more to do with Nintendo's need to keep it thin on a vertical axis, which means there is no need to entirely "ditch the joycons concept to fix the drift" first of all because ditching the joycons would not even be a guarantee that they would fix drifting in the first place since the Switch Lite still uses the same part due to the similarly thin frame (and a Switch 2, depending on what design they use, might still have a need to keep it so) and second of all because it's absurd to even suggest "the joycons destroyed nintendos hardware-durability-fame!" + the idea that an internet discourse denominator would factor in Nintendo's decisions in how to run this entire device's play pattern like the member was claiming.
 
So how we only have 2 insiders saying it’s March reveal/announcemnet? You would think the bigger publications would have reported on this as well using their own sources.

Not saying it won’t be March since I think there’s a good chance but I feel there was some piggybacking going on with that second ‘confirmation’.

Edit - I’m thinking more of a domino effect as with Starfox Racing or the recent new content for Smash rumour. It doesn’t mean people are lying but others speaking out leads one person saying something and then the next etc.
 
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But do you think they will remake a Switch 1 games from the ground up for Switch 2? I personally dont see that hapening.
I wouldn’t expect it from Nintendo EPD, or even the external studios associated with them.

But honestly, other companies? You never know, they might offer remasters of the same games that also ran on the Switch, but at a price. I find that annoying but I just know we will have one-off cases that will be met with scrutiny.

The only Switch game from Nintendo themselves that I can imagine as even being worth a remaster is perhaps Super Smash Bros. especially considering how well the game runs already. Even then, that’s probably an entirely new game with additional content at that point, not a remaster.
 
For what it's worth, i understood that Necro said that he had his own sources about this, independently from Nate.
Might be possible that Nate's report made those feel that it's okay to talk, too.
 
Not saying it won’t be March since I think there’s a good chance but I feel there was some piggybacking going on with that second ‘confirmation’.
This type of accusation from people like you does nothing with the thread and only encourage us to simply not post anything related to our sources in any way
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
 
If we do get a Partner Direct next week and then the March reveal includes software, I can see Nintendo also announcing the dates for LM2 and Paper Mario at the March reveal and giving them the “don’t worry, there’s still games coming to switch, and you can play them on our new device too!” treatment.

We’re so close.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release

I'd look at a similar timeframe from back in 2017, reveal event was January, launch March.

If the upcoming reveal is a full blown one similar to the Switch 2017 one, i'd argue we're at max 3 months away.

Gut feeling would be June.
 
This type of accusation from people like you does nothing with the thread and only encourage us to simply not post anything related to our sources in any way

Disappointed to read ‘people like you’ since I’ve never been anything but complimentary about people like Nate and people who put themselves on the line.

That comment wasn’t meant to be offensive in any way but more a case of how someone can’t ‘confirm’ something without them having actual confirmation.

What I meant by ‘piggybacking’ was more of a domino effect of ‘I’ve also heard this’ as we saw with something like Starfox Racing and that rumour going down the channels. Another example recently was ‘new content for Smash’…

It doesn’t mean I think people are lying so hopefully you’re less aggrieved now.
 
This type of accusation from people like you does nothing with the thread and only encourage us to simply not post anything related to our sources in any way
Thing is, he’s just saying how he feels.
I’m sure that feeling runs through other’s minds as well.
I mean as a leaker you must’ve expected this type of reaction.
Goes with the territory right?
 
Remake, as in like Sony just remade TLoU 2 for PS5?

No, not that.

That's a silly thing, i hope they're better than that.

What are you talking about? TLOU2 didn't get remade, it's a remaster package with technical and accessibility upgrades plus new content. And current owners get it for $10. I'd be very happy if a bunch of Switch games got similar treatment.

I think he's referring more to actual remake-remakes, which does seem unlikely after only 1 generation. Though the jump from Switch to Switch 2 IS going to be immense, such that they might be able to improve on a game more than one might think. Between the power jump, does and mesh shaders.
 
I'd look at a similar timeframe from back in 2017, reveal event was January, launch March.

If the upcoming reveal is a full blown one similar to the Switch 2017 one, i'd argue we're at max 3 months away.

Gut feeling would be June.
May 2024 bros are winning.

For real though, Nintendo can probably get away with a release at basically any time this year, so a June or July release date is very plausible. Would be abnormal but not impossible. The only real thing that backs those dates up though is Nintendo wanting to release the Switch 2 as soon as possible, apparently. It's nice to hope.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release

You’re an absolute legend.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
I choose to believe this wholeheartedly because it feeeeeeeeeeels good.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
Honestly I can see this happening given Nintendo's secrecy. I wouldn't be shocked if they started production in silence, but it'd be a pretty big risk.

Speed running the reveal to release process also makes sense given how... Well "fast" their strategies have been recently. Listen, I get Nintendo most of the time, but revealing and releasing the OLED within 3 months (July to October) is weird right?

Gonna hope for that happening but understand that it relies on Nintendo being very confident in their pre-reveal to release plans.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
March/April soft launch? What does soft mean in this sentence? Because I really doubt that will be the case. Aswell May/June.

They need to wait 6 months or so for advertising and promoting the thing. If the release is around the corner, they won't have the preparation time for the Switch 2 launch for Ads and Promotional stuff.
 
Honestly I can see this happening given Nintendo's secrecy. I wouldn't be shocked if they started production in silence, but it'd be a pretty big risk.

Speed running the reveal to release process also makes sense given how... Well "fast" their strategies have been recently. Listen, I get Nintendo most of the time, but revealing and releasing the OLED within 3 months (July to October) is weird right?

Gonna hope for that happening but understand that it relies on Nintendo being very confident in their pre-reveal to release plans.

Wouldn't a release so soon mean they had already been in mass production for a month or so by now? I don't see how leaks could've been avoided then, isn't the general rule that the console needs to be revealed when mass production starts at the latest?
 
Thing is, he’s just saying how he feels.
I’m sure that feeling runs through other’s minds as well.
I mean as a leaker you must’ve expected this type of reaction.
Goes with the territory right?
Respectfully disagree. People are not paid to do this technically, so it is their right to not say when they have something, or to check with their sources after they have heard something. Here it adds credence to a statement (switch2 reveal/announcement in March) which otherwise would have been taken relatively less seriously.
They also have to maintain relationships and not expose anyone, which we random joes do not see nor imagine the difficulty.
Even then, it is okay to piggyback (although not sure it applies in this case) off something that was said before, for as long as we know the person is not trying to deceive or lie about what they know. Hell we know the few people here who have inside contacts, the imposters on youtube don't bother coming here, because the ones posting here are just the best, so let's not insult them plz.
Thank you kindly.
 
March/April soft launch? What does soft mean in this sentence? Because I really doubt that will be the case. Aswell May/June.

They need to wait 6 months or so for advertising and promoting the thing. If the release is around the corner, they won't have the preparation time for the Switch 2 launch for Ads and Promotional stuff.

Dunno, of course they're going to promote the shit out of it. But honestly, if we're really talking about a system that's more evolution than revolution ... wouldn't it technically be enough when mainstream media reports "Nintendo has announced the next-gen successor to Switch" to get what it is?

Switch 1 had a couple of factors that played into Nintendo being more upfront, and way earlier about NX / Switch than they usually are.

But to be fair, i would say that the absolute mininum of promotion time between reveal and launch would be 3 months.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
We have like no evidence of mass production even starting, but I won't complain if we get it early lol
 
They need to wait 6 months or so for advertising and promoting the thing.
This is untrue: Nintendo Switch had a little over four months, for instance. Of those, however, marketing didn't start in earnest until January, leaving just two months of "full throttle" marketing.

Nintendo doesn't "need" a huge run-up to release. People get the idea, so realistically 4 months or less is on the table, they don't have to prove or explain the concept this time, just explain why it's better, which is a simpler thing.

A soft launch (launching with a small number of units and games available, if any games at all) I do think is off the table, the initial demand would be too great, the PR wouldn't be good, and if they have units that ready ahead of time, they'd be better off sending them to influencers and reviewers to push marketing.
 
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March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
Must proceed at high velocity…
 
At this point I'm half-convinced the jaggies are an artistic decision, so you're probably right.
i mean, ngl...the jaggies almost feel synonymous with the artstyle of BOTW/TOTK at this point lmao. it's kinda one of those nintendo EPD things where they somehow manage to create beauty out of severe limitations.
 
I don't talk much in this thread since a lot of you are a lot more knowledgeable than me but I just wanted to say something that has been in my mind since we are kind of talking about release timing:

I'm nearly-confident that they wouldn't do something like this but something that always does stick out to me for the Switch's announcement is that they did officially acknowledge it in April 2016, saying it would release in March of 2017. While, again, I don't think they'd do this again (I've seen others talk about how they did this to ensure investors that they wouldn't be going fully into the mobile market), I do think that ultimately the next console's marketing and announcement to release timing will fall into the middle of the four and a half months to eleven months range, probably, as some have mentioned, at around the six month point. I could be off-base with this but I just don't know why I can't see them releasing it earlier than late-late summer to early Fall... :)
 
I certainly wouldn't expect less than four months from reveal to release. But I also don't think more than 6 is a good idea. So with an announcement in March, July to September makes sense to me.
 
Just been catching up here, is the lack of Joy-Cons a real thing insiders are saying or just baseless speculation? Because removing the Joy-Con functionality would be an absolute disaster no matter how you slice it.
 

Unsurprisingly, the "existing Switch will be our main business heading into 2024" claim seems to have been mistranslated or misinterpreted, as there's no direct reference to it in the Q&A. My best guess is that it's referring to this sentence from the answer to Q4:

A number of new titles are set for release next fiscal year, both from Nintendo and other software publishers, and by continuing to promote the appeal of those titles as well as existing ones, we aim to maintain the momentum of the overall Nintendo Switch business.

The "we will present a hardware unit sales forecast in May" quote was also taken out of context somewhat. Many people read the Bloomberg article to mean that he said this as part of the discussion of next-gen hardware, but he was asked directly what Nintendo's hardware expectations for the next FY were, and simply stated that they would provide the forecasts at the usual time. So there's nothing to read into it, and certainly no implication that the next-gen hardware will be included in forecasts provided in May.

The answer to Q1 is the most relevant to the thread, particularly this part:

Regarding new hardware, we are unable to make any comments beyond saying that our company is constantly conducting research and development on new hardware and software. As we mentioned before, articles claiming to reference information released by Nintendo and other speculations have been appearing mainly on the internet lately. Information that has not been officially announced by Nintendo can mislead consumers and investors. We encourage you to exercise good judgment based on the information we provide on our official websites and social media accounts. It takes a long time and thorough planning to get ready for new hardware, and those plans are not impacted by whatever the latest business conditions might be.

As has been stated by many people in this thread, console launches are planned long in advance, with both hardware and software having long development cycles that can't be changed on a whim. Whenever they release it will almost certainly be when they always planned to release it, and likewise they'll probably announce it when they always planned to announce it.
 
As far as I'm aware, the source of these joycon "rumours" are John Linnemann not liking joycons and therefore joycons will be gone from Switch 2 because John doesn't like them.

I like John Linnemann's work btw. But folks shouldn't fret about this.
 
How does one reconcile the belief that there will no longer be joycon/gyro with the belief that it will have BC?
I do not believe there will be no joycon personally. However, my personal preference would be for the device to have gyro in the console, controllers not detachable, and allow the option to still use joycon via bluetooth if you prefer. In fact they could sell better split controllers that don't have rails in that case.

In terms of backwards compatability, there aren't many major titles that require 2 separate controllers. Those that do would require you use the joycon you presumably already have. It wouldn't be the first time there is a list of games that don't work despite backcompat due to controller changes.
 
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Because they haven't revealed it yet. This is early 2023 all over again...

Well, we won't have to wait long to see if this will be 2023 "again".

If next week's Direct is a Partner Showcase, that should tell enough about Nintendo not willing or not able to give the Switch a strong 1st party lineup.

A Partner Showcase als the first Direct of the year is pretty much between the lines saying that Nintendo is about to move on.
 
Because they haven't revealed it yet. This is early 2023 all over again...
This is true if there's a normal average every-February Nintendo direct next week. If it's a partner showcase, this argument holds as much water as a sieve in a desert.

A lot rides on next week, but if the direct is basically just third party titles and like... Housecleaning with previously announced titles at best, then we can assume Nintendo is hiding stuff to show until either March or later in the year generally.
 
I see summer launch talk is picking back up. While I myself have fallen off the bandwagon, I have spoke with wall street types that are still convinced of May 2024 even despite everything going on. One of the original dudes I spoke with whom I figure as the best chance to have inside info basically double downed on it. I’ve expected big selling in Nintendo stock and it hasn’t really happened. A bunch of scaled back to bank profit but remain in to some degree.

Still feels low chance but not impossible. Gonna be honest, I feel more disconnected with the general feel of things now than I ever have as an investor. There is a lot of head scratching decisions/events going on.
 
March reveal as the Switch 7 year anniversary makes sense

However there are two scenarios I think are probable


March Reveal + March/April Soft Launch

March Reveal + May/June Launch


I don’t see them waiting 6 months to release the ting from release and messing up the Switch 1 sales for half a year, they have to move quick from announcement to release
I wouldn’t mind a June launch since that’s my birthday month
 
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