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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Dark Cloud said:
If it’s Andy Robinson putting out a new article with new Switch 2 info that’ll be good
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About that - since this is brought up again - do we have any more references of Andy Robinson working on a new Switch 2 article, other than a random mention by a Fami member that I understood to be speculating on why Marmo was being coy last night (before it was revealed he was just trolling)?
 
darthdiablo said:
About that - since this is brought up again - do we have any more references of Andy Robinson working on a new Switch 2 article, other than a random mention by a Fami member that I understood to be speculating on why Marmo was being coy last night (before it was revealed he was just trolling)?
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you can say my username, it's fine!
 
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Here's a positive way to look at a H2 2024 reveal given the recent rumors: if the console doesn't release soon, then there's no point in revealing it this November.
If the console is not revealed in November, then marmolade's rumor is dead and that weakens the possibility of a digital model with no BC (and consequently the absence of digital BC/Nintendo taking the Wii U route for achieving BC).

I'm personally fine with waiting a whole year for this console as long as there's no "catch" to it. Give me a powerful system with (good) BC and I'll be there day one.
 
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darthdiablo said:
So you think announcements for an announcement is supposed to be a thing? :)
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We're definitely in the era where we tend to hear chatter before big announcements. I wouldn't call that an announcement of an announcement.

But anyway, same way I said in May that there is 0 chance this thing was launching this year after their year end report came out, there is like 0 chance they will be announcing new hardware set to launch in 2024 H2 right now. It makes 0 sense. We won't get an announcement until next year. Probably Feb or Mar if it is a Sept launch. If it is a Nov launch then we'll know around when the year end report comes out.
 
The Illumination design isn't the game design with infinite processing power. It's a Mario design that is built to be animated by hand, rather than controlled by a player.

EPD's design of Mario has been built around his hitbox. His hitbox is round, unlike most video game hitboxes, because it works better in platforming without flat surfaces (ie: Galaxy). Mario's design is built to be readable from the back and from the side. Can you imagine watching those loose denim overalls getting tangled in Mario's legs while running and jumping?

I doubt Nintendo is prepared to rebuild their whole game development pipeline to sync up with the movie - they know down that path lies Pokemon. They will continue to build their designs around the gameplay, as empowered by the technology.
 
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Dark Cloud said:
What should happen though? Why don’t you specify because then you’ll claim any little thing as “that’s what I was talking about”
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yeah I asked if a big leak counted as something happening and as far as I saw he ignored it

safe to say it was just the fast food troll
 
ns156 said:
The problem is Nintendo has always relied on stores to stock their stuff as well. If they start abandoning them there is no going back, so they'd have to be pretty damn confident that they don't need physical store advertisement anymore.
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MS and Sony's digital-only machines haven't made them disappear from stores.
lemonfresh said:
im curious for digital only users how do you handle the storage space problems do you buy big sd cards or something?
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Well, that's pretty much the only solution, unless you want to redownload things. In recent times my Internet speed has improved a lot so that becomes a more viable option, but I've still got a 1TB card.
ns156 said:
Their points system sucks IMO. Points expiring after a year is crap if you don't buy often, the points should last indefinitely.
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The point of the points is a carrot to help influence behavior, so they're unlikely to stop that.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
We're definitely in the era where we tend to hear chatter before big announcements. I wouldn't call that an announcement of an announcement.

But anyway, same way I said in May that there is 0 chance this thing was launching this year after their year end report came out, there is like 0 chance they will be announcing new hardware set to launch in 2024 H2 right now. It makes 0 sense. We won't get an announcement until next year. Probably Feb or Mar if it is a Sept launch. If it is a Nov launch then we'll know around when the year end report comes out.
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I'm not sure I agree that we're "definitely are in the era where we tend to hear chatter before big announcements". I think that's just confirmation or recency bias.

Good read #1
Good read #2
Good read #3
 
Holy crap. I was watching Spawnwave's daily news video and I wasn't expecting him to cover the Switch reveal video being taken down. But...
I FINALLY MADE IT. I'M FAMOUS BOYS

image.png
image.png
 
darthdiablo said:
I'm not sure I agree that we're "definitely are in the era where we tend to hear chatter before big announcements". I think that's just confirmation or recency bias.

Good read #1
Good read #2
Good read #3
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Like I said, I wouldn't call chatter and announcement of an announcement. But yes, we tend to hear discussion about things in tech before an announcement takes place. That isn't recencybor confirmation bias. I wasn't just talking about Nintendo either. Of course, there are times when we don't hear about it too. It isn't a guarantee. But no one just slips a new console into thin air without us hearing anything before hand. That's not normal.

Of course, as I said, this isn't going to be announced this year regardless so I'm not paying attention either way.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
Like I said, I wouldn't call chatter and announcement of an announcement. But yes, we tend to hear discussion about things in tech before an announcement takes place.
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Maybe you're thinking of Directs. Not remotely the same thing. Someone like Pyoro wouldn't be privy to company announcements.

Gotdatmoneyy said:
That isn't recencybor confirmation bias. I wasn't just talking about Nintendo either. Of course, there are times when we don't hear about it too. It isn't a guarantee. But no one just slips a new console into thin air without us hearing anything before hand. That's not normal.

Of course, as I said, this isn't going to be announced this year regardless so I'm not paying attention either way.
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Okay. I hope nobody is surprised if we hear absolutely nothing until a day or two right before Nintendo makes the announcement, whenever that would be (November or March or later).
 
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Derachi said:
I could see them making 2 SKUs, one with a physical game slot and one without, and then simply not selling the digital SKU in Japan where physical sales still massively outweigh digital sales (iirc)
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I can also see it, but I fear it sets some sort of precedent for the west to eventually be digital only. I’ll have to bite the bullet one day, but I’d hope it’s not that soon.
 
I haven't had a chance to listen to Nate's podcast yet, but mentions of DLSS ray reconstruction make me hopeful that it's not just there, but viable. As already mentioned, Ampere supports DLSS-RR, so as long as Nvidia adds support for it to NVN2, it should technically run, but there's a difference between running and running quickly enough to be a sensible choice on low-power hardware like the Switch 2. We know DLSS-RR is slower than regular DLSS, and that it can sometimes be quicker than running both traditional denoising algorithms and DLSS, but without actual performance figures it's hard to determine whether that's enough to make it usable on Switch 2.

If developers are talking about it to journalists, though, that makes me think it's more likely to be actually usable. If it's tucked away in the SDK with documentation stating that it's extremely slow and probably only of limited use, I wouldn't expect devs to talk about it, or if they did, to caveat it as "technically it supports DLSS-RR, but it's too slow to use". If devs are proffering up information that DLSS-RR is supported, without caveats, then my guess is it should be fast enough to be actually viable on Switch 2 at least in some cases. That's great news, as it makes a big difference to the image quality of games which make heavy use of ray tracing (or at least in Cyberpunk 2077, which is our only example thus far). Of course I don't expect Switch 2 games to make similarly heavy use of ray tracing as Cyberpunk does, but even for game with more modest usage, we should hopefully get much cleaner reflections/shadows/lighting/etc as a result of using DLSS-RR.
 
kvetcha said:
Movies are nice, but Nintendo likely makes more direct profit off one major AAA release than they did off of the Mario movie.
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Movies if they continue to be successful (and I can see them becoming hugely successful) will likely allow Nintendo to leverage better deals for their content IP though.

Like you bet your ass right now Nintendo is going to get a very sweet deal on Legend of Zelda movie rights and a Luigi's Mansion movie rights and Donkey Kong movie rights if that's what they want because they have all the leverage. They can demand a huge cut of the revenue now and a studio will still say yes because they still stand to make lots of moneytoo. Every studio is dying to find the next franchise-able cinematic universe and Nintendo is sitting on a treasure trove of content.

The movies also drive mainstream attention and visibility to levels no game really can. The Mario movie brought in tons of people who grew up on Mario but possibly didn't play any of the more recent games on top of making new fans, like my nieces and nephews for example they became Mario fans this year and it wasn't because of a game, it's because they went to the movie.

The movies could become huge pop culture events in a way that no game can be.
 
Thraktor said:
I haven't had a chance to listen to Nate's podcast yet, but mentions of DLSS ray reconstruction make me hopeful that it's not just there, but viable. As already mentioned, Ampere supports DLSS-RR, so as long as Nvidia adds support for it to NVN2, it should technically run, but there's a difference between running and running quickly enough to be a sensible choice on low-power hardware like the Switch 2. We know DLSS-RR is slower than regular DLSS, and that it can sometimes be quicker than running both traditional denoising algorithms and DLSS, but without actual performance figures it's hard to determine whether that's enough to make it usable on Switch 2.

If developers are talking about it to journalists, though, that makes me think it's more likely to be actually usable. If it's tucked away in the SDK with documentation stating that it's extremely slow and probably only of limited use, I wouldn't expect devs to talk about it, or if they did, to caveat it as "technically it supports DLSS-RR, but it's too slow to use". If devs are proffering up information that DLSS-RR is supported, without caveats, then my guess is it should be fast enough to be actually viable on Switch 2 at least in some cases. That's great news, as it makes a big difference to the image quality of games which make heavy use of ray tracing (or at least in Cyberpunk 2077, which is our only example thus far). Of course I don't expect Switch 2 games to make similarly heavy use of ray tracing as Cyberpunk does, but even for game with more modest usage, we should hopefully get much cleaner reflections/shadows/lighting/etc as a result of using DLSS-RR.
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Another point that LIC brought up is that adding features to NVN2 and Nintendo's dev tools isn't free, even if Ampere supports it. So they probably woudnt have bothered if there wasn't a tangible benefit.
 
Machrider said:
Movies if they continue to be successful (and I can see them becoming hugely successful) will likely allow Nintendo to leverage better deals for their content IP though.

Like you bet your ass right now Nintendo is going to get a very sweet deal on Legend of Zelda movie rights and a Luigi's Mansion movie rights and Donkey Kong movie rights if that's what they want because they have all the leverage. They can demand a huge cut of the revenue now and a studio will still say yes because they still stand to make lots of moneytoo. Every studio is dying to find the next franchise-able cinematic universe and Nintendo is sitting on a treasure trove of content.

The movies also drive mainstream attention and visibility to levels no game really can. The Mario movie brought in tons of people who grew up on Mario but possibly didn't play any of the more recent games on top of making new fans, like my nieces and nephews for example they became Mario fans this year and it wasn't because of a game, it's because they went to the movie.

The movies could become huge pop culture events in a way that no game can be.
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No argument here. It has plenty of benefits for their brand awareness, but ultimately they are still making their money selling toys.
 
kvetcha said:
No argument here. It has plenty of benefits for their brand awareness, but ultimately they are still making their money selling toys.
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The defininition of toy has changed since the 70s and 80s. Toy has been "video games" for at least two decades. Otherwise it's kitchy shit that's just an updated pet rock - like beanie babies and furbies.

The Mario movie though - it shifts Nintendo in the direction of being a general media company.
 
nintendo's games are fun for all ages but the mario movie seems to be strictly for kids (and kids with low standards no less)

could be totally off base on that assessment but regardless I'd rather not see the movies get a ton of internal attention, they should always come second
 
so from the past few pages all I got was maybe a digital-only switch 2 and marmalade is going to be banned in a month
 
Skittzo said:
The people demand Nate reveal his face to MVG
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One day. Maybe.

Thraktor said:
I haven't had a chance to listen to Nate's podcast yet, but mentions of DLSS ray reconstruction make me hopeful that it's not just there, but viable. As already mentioned, Ampere supports DLSS-RR, so as long as Nvidia adds support for it to NVN2, it should technically run, but there's a difference between running and running quickly enough to be a sensible choice on low-power hardware like the Switch 2. We know DLSS-RR is slower than regular DLSS, and that it can sometimes be quicker than running both traditional denoising algorithms and DLSS, but without actual performance figures it's hard to determine whether that's enough to make it usable on Switch 2.

If developers are talking about it to journalists, though, that makes me think it's more likely to be actually usable. If it's tucked away in the SDK with documentation stating that it's extremely slow and probably only of limited use, I wouldn't expect devs to talk about it, or if they did, to caveat it as "technically it supports DLSS-RR, but it's too slow to use". If devs are proffering up information that DLSS-RR is supported, without caveats, then my guess is it should be fast enough to be actually viable on Switch 2 at least in some cases. That's great news, as it makes a big difference to the image quality of games which make heavy use of ray tracing (or at least in Cyberpunk 2077, which is our only example thus far). Of course I don't expect Switch 2 games to make similarly heavy use of ray tracing as Cyberpunk does, but even for game with more modest usage, we should hopefully get much cleaner reflections/shadows/lighting/etc as a result of using DLSS-RR.
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It's viable. As said, the SOC has a custom feature set. RR is there because it can be used. As you said, power draw is a major limit. Could see RR being a feature only available while docked.
 
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I think the argument that there will be 2 SKUs - one with a cartridge slot just for Switch 1 games, and the other for people that are not bringing over a physical collection that needs that slot is convincing. Both able to play digital Switch 1 and 2 games.

Nintendo wants to kill physical media. Not having Switch 2 games on physical media makes sense to that end.

I'm amenable to the argument that it's too early to force that, but not convinced of that. Series X and S has successfully done this (sort of). In fact, I wouldn't have bought an X with a disk drive if there had been one for $50 less that didn't have one.
 
LiC said:
It's still a diver feature that needs support built in to NVN2 and then to Nintendo's GFX library. So not everything should be assumed by default, or at least, it shouldn't have been prior to the confirmation of RR. That confirmation does indicate that Nintendo is interested in keeping up to date with new Nvidia features, but it still shouldn't be taken as an automatic/absolute thing.
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Just curious, what driver features that are supported on Nvidia Ampere gpus that we should not expect to be usable/running on the new Switch chip?
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The Series X is also dropping the disc drive next year fwiw.
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Yep. Honestly, they're hedging their bets. They probably have plans for another lower cost X (their costs, not ours) with a disk drive in case this ends up turning off customers in droves. Or like Sony is rumored to do with an external drive.
 
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My Tulpa said:
Just curious, what driver features that are supported on Nvidia Ampere gpus that we should not expect to be usable on the new Switch chip?
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Probably non currently. But in the future, there might be some feature where Nvidia recommends say a 3070 minimum so it won't be worth porting that feature to Nintendo. Even though it's technically supported on Ampere.
 
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bmfrosty said:
I think the argument that there will be 2 SKUs - one with a cartridge slot just for Switch 1 games, and the other for people that are not bringing over a physical collection that needs that slot is convincing. Both able to play digital Switch 1 and 2 games.

Nintendo wants to kill physical media. Not having Switch 2 games on physical media makes sense to that end.

I'm amenable to the argument that it's too early to force that, but not convinced of that. Series X and S has successfully done this (sort of). In fact, I wouldn't have bought an X with a disk drive if there had been one for $50 less that didn't have one.
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'Nintendo wants to kill physical media'

Source? Nintendo are the one of the least trend following companies around. Do we have reason to believe they actually want to do this beyond gut feelings?

And not forgetting Japan, Nintendo's main market who are still very much in love with physical copies...
 
kvetcha said:
No argument here. It has plenty of benefits for their brand awareness, but ultimately they are still making their money selling toys.
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They make money selling video games for the last 30-35 years mainly, but the movie business will likely become a bigger and bigger part of their business.

This is a toy:

999999-39897460000.jpg


It's made by a toy company called Jakks.

This is a toy

-lego-super-mario-starter-course-ea484181-361a-4671-a5af-df78ebabe873.png


It's made by a toy company -- LEGO. If Nintendo was a toy company they'd just make this stuff themselves, they don't because they aren't a toy company.

Nintendo hasn't really made toys since like the 1970s/early 80s.

Video game consoles are not toys, they're more like home entertainment appliances, like a DVD player or VHS player or home stereo. If a GameCube was a toy then so was a Playstation 2, if a Switch is a toy then so is a Playstation 4.
 
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Machrider said:
They make money selling video games.

This is a toy:

999999-39897460000.jpg


It's made by a toy company called Jakks.

This is a toy

-lego-super-mario-starter-course-ea484181-361a-4671-a5af-df78ebabe873.png


It's made by a toy company -- LEGO.

Nintendo hasn't really made toys since like the 1970s/early 80s.

Video game consoles are not toys. If a GameCube was a toy then so was a Playstation 2, if a Switch is a toy then so is a Playstation 4.
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Are you still doing this? Video games are toys. Stop being insecure about it. Videogame consoles are devices used by either children or adults for pleasure - the very definition of a toy.

People with a bunch of action figures insist on calling them collectibles—we all know they're just toys.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
that is such a lame and lazy argument that if I could express my true feelings I would be banned
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Honestly, it's been discussed ad nauseam why it's beneficial to platform holders to kill physical media. I'm not going to repeat those arguments again and again. The big one is that makes Nintendo (basically) the sole retailer and allows them to keep a bigger part of the profits and deny it to gamestop and amazon or whoever it is that sells new physical games. They can sweeten this by splitting that extra with the publishers. It's all about the money.
 
Re: Mario Movie - My perception is that Nintendo sees the Mario Movie the same way GameFreak and the Pokemon Company see their animated series and movies: cross media promotion. They keep mentioning momentum due to the movie. They see it as a sales booster rather than something of its own.

While I do belive Nintendo will keep pushing their IPs via movies and series, Nintendo will always see them as marketing rather than individual products
 
Thraktor said:
I haven't had a chance to listen to Nate's podcast yet, but mentions of DLSS ray reconstruction make me hopeful that it's not just there, but viable. As already mentioned, Ampere supports DLSS-RR, so as long as Nvidia adds support for it to NVN2, it should technically run, but there's a difference between running and running quickly enough to be a sensible choice on low-power hardware like the Switch 2. We know DLSS-RR is slower than regular DLSS, and that it can sometimes be quicker than running both traditional denoising algorithms and DLSS, but without actual performance figures it's hard to determine whether that's enough to make it usable on Switch 2.

If developers are talking about it to journalists, though, that makes me think it's more likely to be actually usable. If it's tucked away in the SDK with documentation stating that it's extremely slow and probably only of limited use, I wouldn't expect devs to talk about it, or if they did, to caveat it as "technically it supports DLSS-RR, but it's too slow to use". If devs are proffering up information that DLSS-RR is supported, without caveats, then my guess is it should be fast enough to be actually viable on Switch 2 at least in some cases. That's great news, as it makes a big difference to the image quality of games which make heavy use of ray tracing (or at least in Cyberpunk 2077, which is our only example thus far). Of course I don't expect Switch 2 games to make similarly heavy use of ray tracing as Cyberpunk does, but even for game with more modest usage, we should hopefully get much cleaner reflections/shadows/lighting/etc as a result of using DLSS-RR.
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You know Nvidia have been working on NVN2 for a long time now... If Jensen really does walk out on the Nintendo stage to lift the veil off the Switch 2 SOC, I wonder if he would include new software wizbang to go with it... He could announce a new version of RR, or hell, he could even introduce DLSS 4.0 to the world! Or some new tensor core thing that we've never heard of.

It would be a great stage to do so and I bet Nintendo would be pleased as punch for their new console to be shown off tied so close to the latest technologies in real-time rendering.
 
ns156 said:
Are you still doing this? Video games are toys. Stop being insecure about it. Videogame consoles are devices used by either children or adults for pleasure - the very definition of a toy.
Click to expand...

By that logic an iPad is a toy, an iPod circa 2005 is a toy, a Playstation 5 is a toy, a $4000 gaming PC is a toy, a Steam Deck is a toy, etc. etc. etc.

This isn't the 80s anymore, game consoles stopped being toys certainly by the mid-1990s. Playstation is self explanatory but even the N64 ... the N64 was like a consumer grade version of an SGI workstation, lol, that's certainly not a toy. That's a high end electronics appliance (for the time). To get graphics performance comparable to an N64 circa 1996 you'd have to buy what was for then a bleeding edge PC GPU.

If Nintendo was a toy company they'd just make their own toys, they wouldn't license them out. Jakks is a toy company, Lego is a toy company, Nintendo is a video game company that is about to become a massive media company because their movie business is going to likely explode much like Marvel Comics movie business did.

The vast majority of the video game business is adults, even Nintendo's own demographics show that. The actual toy business is in the toilet by the way, it's a good thing Nintendo is not in the toy business because if they were they'd be in trouble.
 
I just posted this with $5 to streamlabs after listening to Nate's latest episode, but I'll share it here since I have more than 255 characters.

On the topic of 2 SKUs and backwards compatibility - what if they have a Deluxe model with hardware-based backwards compatibility (Tegra X1 and a cartridge slot) and a cheaper Digital-only model? The Digital model would play digital Switch 2 games, plus digital Switch 1 games if they've been patched by the developer. The Deluxe would play these, but also any Switch 1 game (including physical) even if it's not patched.

I don't 100% agree that the BC solution will be all-or-nothing. I certainly don't think it will be nothing. I think Nintendo will make sure it's understandable. So if my console has a slot that takes a switch cartridge, it will play. But if my console doesn't have a cartridge slot at all, obviously I can't play a cartridge. And I may need to check if a digital version I purchased is playable. Having these different SKUs provides options for everyone while maximizing profit for Nintendo.

I remember MVG and others stating that due to the way that shaders are pre-compiled for the Tegra X1 into game code (and therefore on carts), BC on future Nvidia GPUs is not straightforward. So you'd either need patches, BC hardware (e.g. including a Tegra X1), or some other mechanism to recompile. Maybe this is part of the new SoCs, I haven't kept up. But previous Nintendo handhelds have all included previous-gen hardware for BC (and many home consoles), so maybe this continues in one SKU?

I would expect Nintendo to provide patches for its best-selling games and encourage third-parties to do the same. But there's a lot of games that won't be patched. Probably doesn't make sense to add hardware and cost to every Switch 2 for that, so maybe they position it this way.
 
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NateDrake said:
Could see RR being a feature only available while docked.
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This reminds me of people who used to theorize that DLSS would only be for docked mode. Not seeing how almost any feature could be viable when docked, but not viable at a much lower resolution while ~half speed.
 
Machrider said:
By that logic an iPad is a toy, an iPod circa 2005 is a toy, a Playstation 5 is a toy, a $4000 gaming PC is a toy, a Steam Deck is a toy, etc. etc. etc.

This isn't the 80s anymore, game consoles stopped being toys certainly by the mid-1990s. Playstation is self explanatory but even the N64 ... the N64 was like a consumer grade version of an SGI workstation, lol, that's certainly not a toy. That's a high end electronics appliance.

If Nintendo was a toy company they'd just make their own toys, they wouldn't license them out. Jakks is a toy company, Lego is a toy company, Nintendo is a video game company that is about to become a massive media company because their movie business is going to likely explode much like Marvel Comics movie business did.

The vast majority of the video game business is adults, even Nintendo's own demographics show that. The actual toy business is in the toilet by the way, it's a good thing Nintendo is not in the toy business because if they were they'd be in trouble.
Click to expand...

I think you need to stop being so insecure about this. The complexity nor how much a toy costs stops it being a toy if its primary purpose is to play games. Have fun with your grown up toys and own it.
 
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