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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I don’t see Nintendo going all digital on Switch 3. After that I could see it.
The year is 2040, after confusing many late a year prior with a merger with a major pharmaceutical, Nintendo announces that Switch³ will be a drug that accesses upper brain functions fully immersing players in Nintendo's games.
 
10-15mins maybe. I don't have time for an hour long video these days.

It has other formats? I load it up on Apple Podcasts over a couple commutes.

I manage to fit these in on my 20 minute commutes:
  • NateTheHate
  • DF Direct
  • Game Mess Mornings
  • Last of the Nintendogs
 
The year is 2040, after confusing many late a year prior with a merger with a major pharmaceutical, Nintendo announces that Switch³ will be a drug that accesses upper brain functions fully immersing players in Nintendo's games.
The funny thing is that the drug restructures unused parts of the users brain to act as the compute for the games to run on. It rarely results in total brainwipe, and they've never lost in court over a brainwipe.
 
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It has other formats? I load it up on Apple Podcasts over a couple commutes.
I have all this extra time because my commute is the 30 second walk from my bed to my desk, but that time still goes somewhere that takes all my attention that won't let me listen to podcasts.
 
I have all this extra time because my commute is the 30 second walk from my bed to my desk, but that time still goes somewhere that takes all my attention that won't let me listen to podcasts.

I can respect that. If I worked from home most days I’d listen to far less. I only manage to prioritize listening to podcasts on commutes or longer walks by myself (picking up groceries).
 
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Bro why are you always like a day late? Lol.
Admittedly, I haven't been too active on this board for the past week and work has been busier than usual. Also been playing a shit ton of Soul Calibur.
 
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Holy crap. I was watching Spawnwave's daily news video and I wasn't expecting him to cover the Switch reveal video being taken down. But...
I FINALLY MADE IT. I'M FAMOUS BOYS

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Perfect time to start acting as an insider. All eyes on you. Just be vague about everything and you're good to go.
 
The Series X is also dropping the disc drive next year fwiw.
Xbox is hardly selling any discs. It's mostly digital now. I, who's a physical person through and through, have not purchased a single Xbox game this gen. Why? Because I'm after their 1st parties and they're all on Game Pass day 1. And it has some decent 3rd parties in there. My Xbox SX is a Game Pass machine. And I assume most are the same. And I think this is what MS wants.

Nintendo on the other hand still sells a lot of physicals. I think the physical to digital ratio is 50:50. They still rely on it a lot. I hope that never changes.
 
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With RR being not only available but viable, is it possible the hook/gimmick for the new Switch is power itself? “Tiny device, HUGE power!” “Powered by Nvidia’s latest chip, it can blah blah blah.”

Actually, I retract that. It’s not power, but feature sets that give you great visuals. “Tiny device, BEAUTIFUL graphics!”

This is similar to just marketing “power” instead of gimmicks, (like Nintendo of the 90s) but with a caveat: This thing is small, and portable. Could that maybe be marketed as the hook? I know Japan loves the portability of the Switch. It could at least cater to them.
GBA did pretty well for itself just being a Game Boy, but much more so.
Why would a retailer carry games that have such a clear incentive in place to make consumers not buy them?
If somebody wants them and will buy them, some retailer isn't going to be stubborn and will be willing to sell them.
Demand isn't a real argument if you are inflating the cost of a product over 25% arbitrarily. If there is ewuivalent demand for physical games at 90 USD what on earth makes you think that that wouldn't translate to demand at 90 USD for digital? This is simple economics, if you increase price demand drops. Video games are not inelastic products. You need to put forth an argument based in reality.
If a customer says "I want this product that's a bunch of ones and zeroes. But I ALSO demand physical items." Well, they can pay for that additional thing they want. Doesn't seem arbitrary to me.
 
I mean even in the 80s, Nintendo allowed people to check stock quotes on the Family Computer, not "Famitoy". Nintendo only had to do that R.O.B. toy shit in the US to get retailers to stock the machine because Atari had fucked up that badly, but that was really just a ploy by them to get retailers to bite on the system.

Here is the Famicom with a modem that would let you check stock quotes, do horse betting (great for children, right?), check weather, etc. even before the internet as we know it existed:

1920px-Nintendo-Famicom-Modem-Network-System-Attached.jpg


Here is the Family Basic add-on for the Famicom which added a keyboard and allowed for BASIC programming on the system.

familybasic-1657739326956.jpg

In the late 80s/early 90s, believe it or not there was a lot of industry people and even mainstream press saying that Nintendo was poised to become the no.1 computer company in the world because they were going to leverage the NES/Famicom into computing ... and they actually were trying that in Japan. Nintendo had more NES systems in homes than PCs at that point.

In a parallel world where Windows PCs don't take off and Nintendo nailed the execution of a computer better ... who knows. Maybe you are sitting on a Nintendo computer doing your taxes, Nintendo was definitely dipping their toes and experimenting with that.

They had a lot of ideas in the 80s/90s that were way ahead of their time.
Ah, my beloved console.

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Collectors editions with only digital codes still sell out. And with people having Xbox Series S or PS5DE, more and more collectors editions are moving to just have a code in the box so people with digital only consoles can actually buy them.
if Micronix can provide with their new cards, Nintendo games can will stick around. unless, of course, Ubisoft and others want to cheap out
 
Don't think Nintendo really needs a "hook" for the next console. The movie side of the business is going to take Nintendo IP to a whole other stratosphere, like movies did for Marvel Comics. If they are really smart they'll be able to do what the MCU did in bolstering characters that were previously not as well known like Iron Man, Ant-Man, Black Panther, Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain Marvel, but are now household names.

And then it'll still have the hook of being a console you can play anywhere.

I'm sure they'll try some new stuff but it's not really a do or die type of thing if they have some new idea and it doesn't take off.

The next 7-10 years is all about Nintendo becoming a massive entertainment media company. More movies, TV/streaming deals, more theme park attractions, the works.
 
Don't think Nintendo really needs a "hook" for the next console. The movie side of the business is going to take Nintendo IP to a whole other stratosphere, like movies did for Marvel Comics. So the value of their IP is going to skyrocket IMO.

And then it'll still have the hook of being a console you can play anywhere.

I'm sure they'll try some new stuff but it's not really a do or die type of thing if they have some new idea and it doesn't take off.
I honestly hope that whatever their new innovation/gimmick/hook is, it won't be a requirement for playing games. Honestly, those tend to be sort of crapshoots anyway. Looking at the failures, an analog stick was too easy for Sony to copy, and didn't make up for the fact that the CD as a delivery medium made it a much better business model, little discs and a funny controller on the GameCube didn't make up for the fact that the DVD and the PlayStation brands were both juggernauts in 2000/2001, and the tablet controller was a bag on the side only rivaled by the Kinect that was part of the XBox one and added $$ to the purchase price for something that few people wanted. As much as I loved the WUST and Cafe threads, I really don't have much positive to say about the Wii U.
 
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Gotcha. So... nothing really beyond him expressing opinion and speculating?
Yep, I actually just got done watching Grubb's video with it. He said it's probably licensing so that's that.



Here's the video. If the timestamp doesn't work, it's 5min in.
 
God I hate the super saturated look everybody goes with for ReShade. No respect to the art direction of the game.

EDIT: Just to add some semblance of substance to this discussion, I will say I'm consistently impressed by how well Switch games scale up. Really shows how modern these games - and the Switch - are. PS3 games, these are not. Contrary to what console warriors will tell you.
Dear Lord, I feel a rant coming on… URGH. I wasn’t impressed. In fact, I would go even further and say it looks better as it is right now on the Switch and the Wii U. I don’t believe that Nintendo’s end result in a future LOZ title would look like that video, which resembles an AI art impression of a LOZ game. This video somehow manages to take a very charming game, what makes it beautiful, and make it look like something that Youtubers would scream “HIRE THIS MAN!!” at. It’s wildly incoherent - Now, the substance of the mechanics remain, and you would have to see past the spoiled visual to get there, but from a creative visual perspective, it lacks so much. I say this as a very passionate fan of the LOZ series. They’ve been my favourite games since forever, but that intangible, the “Nintendo touch” isn’t present there. Whoever did this mod has a very primitive understanding (like a lot of the gaming community, tbqh, but that’s another topic…) of what “graphics” are.

I find that the video takes a lot of the artistic elements away, and you lose the sense that this was drawn. It looks less fun to play, because the human touch isn’t really there, although you’re reminded of it a little when the enemies show up and seem out of place among the imitation of realistic visuals. The painting appearance, the watercolour parts, even where some of the blues and greens seem a little washed out - the “en plein air” direction inspired by gouache paints, these create the “viewer’s eye”, and also convey the sense of ruin in the landscape. A lot of it is sacrificed for rock textures and such, which were already fine. It’s the beauty borne out of self-constraint and limitations. Much of the beauty is that the visual doesn’t attempt to be realistic. The “realism” lies within the scientific elements in the gameplay. I’m reminded of the Wii U tech demo for LOZ - At the time, I thought it was awesome, until Aonuma let us in to Breath’s new Kingdom Of Hyrule at E3 2014, and I began to think about the possibilities.
 
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One day. Maybe.


It's viable. As said, the SOC has a custom feature set. RR is there because it can be used. As you said, power draw is a major limit. Could see RR being a feature only available while docked.
The custom SOC is what excites me the most along with the fact the NVIDIA can continue to update and support custom features on a software-level such as DLSS. In No Man's Sky we already have a game running on the original Switch with FSR 2.

In terms of purely visual fidelity (not raw pixel counts) we could see some considerable improvements from NVIDIA's end to Switch 2 throughout the generation. I wouldn't be surprised if in some scenarios it went toe-to-toe with something like the Series S in terms of performance at lower input resolutions but similar output resolutions.
 
GBA did pretty well for itself just being a Game Boy, but much more so.

If somebody wants them and will buy them, some retailer isn't going to be stubborn and will be willing to sell them.

If a customer says "I want this product that's a bunch of ones and zeroes. But I ALSO demand physical items." Well, they can pay for that additional thing they want. Doesn't seem arbitrary to me.

If this was actually the case, publishers would have done this long ago and retailers woupd have happily accepted it. But it isn't actually realistic which is why no one has tried it. And if we get to the point where the only way it makes sense for publishers to sell physical media is for a retailer to take on a shit margin product for pennies in profit compared to just stocking some other actual high margin product, then I can already tell you they just stop selling physical media all together.

This wont be a real thing. It makes no sense.
 
The custom SOC is what excites me the most along with the fact the NVIDIA can continue to update and support custom features on a software-level such as DLSS. In No Man's Sky we already have a game running on the original Switch with FSR 2.

In terms of purely visual fidelity (not raw pixel counts) we could see some considerable improvements from NVIDIA's end to Switch 2 throughout the generation. I wouldn't be surprised if in some scenarios it went toe-to-toe with something like the Series S in terms of performance at lower input resolutions but similar output resolutions.
Ray Reconstruction will provide many exciting possibilities for the hardware.
 
I feel like it's overselling it a bit. it's great to have, as it solves a big problem, but it's usage is dependent on the game being able to use an even more expensive rendering method to start with
And there are going to be devs who are up for that challenge. If they are up to that challenge, RR is available as part of the tool set. Which is the point I think?
 
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If this was actually the case, publishers would have done this long ago and retailers woupd have happily accepted it. But it isn't actually realistic which is why no one has tried it. And if we get to the point where the only way it makes sense for publishers to sell physical media is for a retailer to take on a shit margin product for pennies in profit compared to just stocking some other actual high margin product, then I can already tell you they just stop selling physical media all together.

This wont be a real thing. It makes no sense.
It's already a thing.


I know that you and a lot of other people don't want it to be a thing, but it's a thing.
 
I feel like it's overselling it a bit. it's great to have, as it solves a big problem, but it's usage is dependent on the game being able to use an even more expensive rendering method to start with
That's far from being an issue for the development studio, the point of RR is to further cheapen the usage of raytracing, even beyond Switch 2's already industry leading RT capabilities. Again, after Insomniac doing what they did on the PS5 without any specialized hardware many of you are in for a surprise...
 
I feel like it's overselling it a bit. it's great to have, as it solves a big problem, but it's usage is dependent on the game being able to use an even more expensive rendering method to start with
Of course. The efficiency of RR is dependent on the denoiser quality in the product it is being used on. But, when utlized, it'll provide a nice gain.
 
It's already a thing.


I know that you and a lot of other people don't want it to be a thing, but it's a thing.

If limited run games is your usage case than I know this is a pointless discussion lol.
 
Unless the reveal trailer disappears from Nintendo's Facebook and Twitter accounts, it was SEO, and not licencing.
Curious if any of those folks insisting it was a licensing issue have offered any explanation for why the said trailer still exists on FB and Twitter, if it's supposedly a licensing issue?

I know people here like to point out YT is much more stricter about copyright strikes and that might have scared Nintendo into preemptively making video go private while leaving FB/Twitter alone, but that doesn't make sense to me either. Nintendo lawyers aren't going to fuck around. If they got wind that there is a licensing issue, they're not going to just let the video stay up on FB and Twitter, in order to protect themselves.
 
I feel like it's overselling it a bit. it's great to have, as it solves a big problem, but it's usage is dependent on the game being able to use an even more expensive rendering method to start with
RR is to RT as DLSS is to high resolutions. Yes, games need to be able to fit the tensor core workload into their budget, but that workload is giving you way more bang for your buck than native. Not sure what's to oversell. I don't think anyone is saying that RR means path-traced Cyberpunk at 4K is now possible.
 
Of course. The efficiency of RR is dependent on the denoiser quality in the product it is being used on. But, when utlized, it'll provide a nice gain.
Hi Nate, have you already heard anything about the specific specs of the SoC (CPU clock, GPU TFLOPS, etc.)?
 
That's far from being an issue for the development studio, the point of RR is to further cheapen the usage of raytracing, even beyond Switch 2's already industry leading RT capabilities. Again, after Insomniac doing what they did on the PS5 without any specialized hardware many of you are in for a surprise...
RR doesn't cheapen the usage of RT, it prevents information loss from temporal reconstruction. RR is gonna be heavier, but not so much more. though if a studio's RT solution is already brushing up to the edge, I don't think RR will be leveraged, if they can even use it for their use case as it might not be very useful outside of GI and reflections



SD_Express_Speed_Classes.jpg


SAN RAMON, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SD Association (SDA) today announced the latest evolution of SD Express memory cards doubling microSD Express memory card speed up to 2GB/s, plus four new SD Express Speed Classes to ensure guaranteed minimum sequential performance levels in the new SD 9.1 specification including support of Multi-stream access and related Power and Thermal Management assuring the guaranteed performance. SD 9.1 helps consumers identify the right card for their device while giving manufacturers new tools to assure minimum level of performance of SD Express memory cards and have means to guide consumers what type of cards will assure specific application operations.


The latest generation of microSD Express uses the PCIe interface delivering a 1,969 megabytes per second (MB/s), nearly 2 gigabytes per second (GB/s) speeds by using the PCIe Gen4 x1 lane as defined in the latest update to the microSD Addendum version 8 specification. microSD Express was introduced with 985 MB/s speed maximum data transfer rate and the NVMe upper layer protocol in the SD 7.1 specification. The increase in speed gives product designers more storage options and SSD level performance for a variety of size constrained devices requiring easily repairable or upgradeable storage.

The SD Express Speed Classes are used exclusively on SDXC, SDUC, microSDXC and microSDUC memory cards offering the SD Express bus. Changes in memory technology necessitate the need to define speeds as NAND flash technology continues to evolve. SD Express is the most significant evolution for SD since it was introduced in 2000. It meets new and evolving market needs to support increased performance requirements of controllers, memories, and other application interfaces. SD Express can fully support almost every use case demanding higher speed removable or semi-removable memory cards and is ideal for meeting the growing number of Right to Repair laws.

“By defining minimum assured sequential performance standards for SD Express memory cards, the SDA helps both device manufacturers and consumers ensure the best recording and playback of all types of content,” said Hiroyuki Sakamoto, SDA president. “We doubled the speed of microSD Express to 2GB/s to give product manufacturers more storage options capable of handling the most demanding storage uses making SD Express memory cards a compelling, ecologically sound choice making it easier to repair and upgrade devices.”

New Features

In order to optimize the SD Express speed class usage under various power levels and thermal conditions - Leveraging NVMe specifications, SD Express memory card now offer several Power Management settings through Maximum Power (MP) values. The card consumes power up to one of the MP values set by the host device to manage card temperatures. SD Express memory cards use a new Thermal Management feature where the card indicates a group of its specific thermal thresholds. The host device may then set appropriate Thermal Management parameters for the card according to the target class and the selected PCIe bus mode, much like an MP value for power management.

The SD 9.1 specification defines the access rules required to ensure the minimum defined performance of the PCI/NVMe interface in SD Express cards, including multi-stream access of up to eight streams.

The SDA has prepared a whitepaper providing more details about the new features and SD Express Speed Classes defined by SD 9.1.

 
RR is to RT as DLSS is to high resolutions. Yes, games need to be able to fit the tensor core workload into their budget, but that workload is giving you way more bang for your buck than native. Not sure what's to oversell. I don't think any is saying that RR means path-traced Cyberpunk at 4K is now possible.
8k though!
 
Hi Nate, have you already heard anything about the specific specs of the SoC (CPU clock, GPU TFLOPS, etc.)?
Not at present. My primary interest has been which features the custom set of the SOC will have enabled -- like RR.

Anything else? What about the two sku rumor?
Similar info came my way that predates the rumor -- but I couldn't verify the info with any other source. I'm uncertain if the info originates from the same source. Then we simply discuss that a digital-sku coming this generation isn't an impossibility, as the industry begins its gradual shift towards digital distribution.
 
The custom SOC is what excites me the most along with the fact the NVIDIA can continue to update and support custom features on a software-level such as DLSS. In No Man's Sky we already have a game running on the original Switch with FSR 2.

In terms of purely visual fidelity (not raw pixel counts) we could see some considerable improvements from NVIDIA's end to Switch 2 throughout the generation. I wouldn't be surprised if in some scenarios it went toe-to-toe with something like the Series S in terms of performance at lower input resolutions but similar output resolutions.
Yeah, that's true. The console will basically get stronger over time, or its DLSS implementation that is. That said, it's already likely to trade blows with Series S when using its entire feature set on a given title, if not surpass it on many departments due to its higher ram amount and of course... Superior rt capabilities, imagine how ridiculously great the thing will be by then.
RR doesn't cheapen the usage of RT, it prevents information loss from temporal reconstruction. RR is gonna be heavier, but not so much more. though if a studio's RT solution is already brushing up to the edge, I don't think RR will be leveraged, if they can even use it for their use case as it might not be very useful outside of GI and reflections



SD_Express_Speed_Classes.jpg




It does, it's just that the PC implementation currently on Cyberpunk doesn't actually bring down the ray amount on any way. RR is meant to cheapen RT usage by reducing the amount of rays you need to cast to achieve a certain standard of quality, aka more bang for your buck. Oldpuck explained it well, you can be sure Nintendo will leverage this always as long as they're using RT, the tradeoff is absolutely worth it.
 
Anything else? What about the two sku rumor?
Mostly that the two SKU rumor should not be dismissed. That he cannot get confirmation through other sources, but that the 2 sku approach seem to make sense due to the push for digital-only (which we already saw on Sony's and Microsoft's part). Also said the 2 sku thing, if it happens, won't necessarily happen at launch time.

(Nate can correct me if I'm off base, he's around here at present time)

Edit: the horse's mouth beat me to it.
 
Curious if any of those folks insisting it was a licensing issue have offered any explanation for why the said trailer still exists on FB and Twitter, if it's supposedly a licensing issue?

I know people here like to point out YT is much more stricter about copyright strikes and that might have scared Nintendo into preemptively making video go private while leaving FB/Twitter alone, but that doesn't make sense to me either. Nintendo lawyers don't fuck around. If they got wind that there is a licensing issue, they're not going to just let the video stay up on FB and Twitter, in order to protect themselves.
I don't think those people know, or if they do, there can still be another explanation.
Even if I don't personally think it's specifically due to any licensing complications, I don't see us getting anything before or on Tuesday next week that relates to new hardware, which means privating the video would be pointless to do so early on.

I will say they did remove the video from the Switch Lite Reveal tweet back in 2019 (I don't recall this being an embedded link, if it was, then disregard):
This means the reason they did take down that video in 2022 was probably due to licensing issues. The video of the OG Switch is still up on their social media platforms, which heavily implies to me that licensing isn't the reason. If they took down the Lite, they would have also taken down the OG Switch video.

Edit: The YT video was an embed. Disregard this portion.

In my head, it can go either way. If it were due to licensing, they would have taken it down everywhere in my mind. If it was due to them revealing new hardware soon, why do it now? Why do it so early on? They have to know people stalk them like hawks. There's little reason for them to do it now and not the day before or of the reveal, it doesn't take that long for the algorithm to stop promoting a video that's private, normally it's pretty instant.
 
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RR doesn't cheapen the usage of RT, it prevents information loss from temporal reconstruction. RR is gonna be heavier, but not so much more. though if a studio's RT solution is already brushing up to the edge, I don't think RR will be leveraged, if they can even use it for their use case as it might not be very useful outside of GI and reflections
RR does effectively cheapen the cost of RT relative to the quality you're getting out of it. As you said, its primary goal is to denoise RT while not interfering with the information DLSS needs to produce a high quality image. Because of that, you have the performance savings of DLSS available to you (rendering the frame, including the RT effects, at a lower internal resolution to save frame time) without sacrificing quality.

I don't think those people know, or if they do, there can still be another explanation.
Even if I don't personally think it's specifically due to any licensing complications, I don't see us getting anything before or on Tuesday next week that relates to new hardware, which means privating the video would be pointless to do so early on.

I will say they did remove the video from the Switch Lite Reveal tweet back in 2019:
This means the reason they did take down that video in 2022 was probably due to licensing issues. The video of the OG Switch is still up on their social media platforms, which heavily implies to me that licensing isn't the reason. If they took down the Lite, they would have also taken down the OG Switch video.

In my head, it can go either way. If it were due to licensing, they would have taken it down everywhere, like what they've done in the past. If it was due to them revealing new hardware soon, why do it now? Why do it so early on? They have to know people stalk them like hawks. There's little reason for them to do it now and not the day before or of the reveal, it doesn't take that long for the algorithm to stop promoting a video that's private, normally it's pretty instant.

They didn't remove anything from that tweet. It's just a YouTube embed that broke when they made the video private. That's different from the 2016 Switch announcement tweet, which has the video embedded on Twitter, not YouTube.
 
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