StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Machrider]

That assumes people would buy games at the same rate as they do physical by forcing everyone to digital. It's a big risk and Nintendo don't do risks unless they have no choice.

Well get ready for it because it's likely going to be happening. I don't think PS6 and XBox Next will have physical games, and Nintendo has more incentive to go digital than even they do as cartridges are more expensive to produce than 25 cent Blu-Ray discs are.

Even if say on a 5 million game sell you lose 500k consumers (which I doubt would even happen) who are "physical media or bust", you likely still come out on top profit wise because the $15-$20 extra margin you're making by forcing everyone to buy digital just outweighs any lost sales.

 

[ns156]

Compared to what though? Not getting anything back for your digital purchases like what happens on PS, Xbox, or Steam? Even if you only sporadically every few months buy games digitally, that year restriction is a complete non factor.

In your opinion. In mine, it does not. I buy physical more than digital, and the points expiring just ensures I never care about them enough to collect and use them for purchases. Those other companies, how often do they do big discounts? I bet it's far more than Nintendo. ESPECIALLY Steam.

 

[Skittzo]

Sure, but couldn't they achieve pretty much almost the same by just increasing their offerings like the Vouchers?

Iirc, Sony actually makes (or made) more money from the disc based PS5.

Probably, which is why I don't think the digital only SKU makes much sense. I think it's unlikely.

I could see a digital only devkit being out which is confusing people.

 

[LiC]

When I said "drop", I meant going exclusively digital, with no option for physical, as it was also speculated. They won't do that.

I could see them offering a digital only SKU, though, but I still think it's more likely the different SKUs are just different storage space options like the Wii U.

I'm quite convinced there will only be one SKU at launch. It's true that storage size does have precedent with the Wii U, and if I had to pick the most likely scenario for multiple SKUs, that would be it. But the Wii U example didn't really yield great results itself. Nintendo mostly only stocked the deluxe version after the first few months, and even officially discontinued the basic version in Japan. Whatever triangulation you might hope to achieve by balancing SKUs with price and storage, I don't think is worth it compared to the simplicity of just having one thing for people to buy. And I think that applies a hundredfold to digital/physical SKUs, let alone the BC nonsense.

 

[Bonejack]

Probably, which is why I don't think the digital only SKU makes much sense. I think it's unlikely.

I could see a digital only devkit being out which is confusing people.

Wouldn't all dev kits, by default be digital only?

Legit asking, i have no idea right now if devs/pubs right now would have the option of having test-lines for carts?

 

[Suswave]

Theoretically the higher digital margins would probably be reason enough to do it. They could slot it into a lower price bracket and make up for the upfront losses with the digital margins.

But I dunno if they'd risk it.

my uninformed two cents:

fuck no they wouldn’t

there’s no way all-digital makes up for the hit that would take — and Nintendo knows how to make games events and collectibles

consider how much they publish a year compared to the other core game companies (first-party wise)

I really believe they would either go TRULY all-digital from the start, or combined — not split-SKU. and I think physical is important to them.

 

[goudsoup]

The more cynical opinion is that the rumor about the digital SKU not having even digital BC is true.....because Nintendo's BC solution is to basically include Switch 1 hardware on board for their physical model. I mean, that's sorta how they've handled BC in the past, right? I don't think they've ever used complex translation layers before.

Nope. The Wii doesn't have a Gekko processor in it: it runs Gamecube games on the Broadway processor after it underclocks itself. Same with the Espresso inside the Wii U. This is possible because, save obvious generational differences, the architecture is mostly the same— PowerPC processor with an AMD GPU.

 

[BassForever]

In your opinion. In mine, it does not. I buy physical more than digital, and the points expiring just ensures I never care about them enough to collect and use them for purchases. Those other companies, how often do they do big discounts? I bet it's far more than Nintendo. ESPECIALLY Steam.

Do you never look on the eshop? Even if you buy 90% physical, the amount of games that drop into "free with gold coins from physical" happens on a weekly basis from 3rd parties and indies. It sounds to me like you're just not being active enough on the digital store front to take advantage of the free money Nintendo gives you. Nintendo could give you 100 years and it sounds like you'd still not take advantage of it.

 

[Machrider]

I'm quite convinced there will only be one SKU at launch. It's true that storage size does have precedent with the Wii U, and if I had to pick the most likely scenario for multiple SKUs, that would be it. But the Wii U example didn't really yield great results itself. Nintendo mostly only stocked the deluxe version after the first few months, and even officially discontinued the basic version in Japan. Whatever triangulation you might hope to achieve by balancing SKUs with price and storage, I don't think is worth it compared to the simplicity of just having one thing for people to buy. And I think that applies a hundredfold to digital/physical SKUs, let alone the BC nonsense.

I don't think Nintendo should really use the Wii U as a barometer for anything. It was a product DOA because the Wii fad had fizzled out (Wii Sports and Wii Fit were old hat by 2012) and the system had terrible marketing, an expensive controller gimmick that impressed no one, and no killer app software until like Mario Kart 8 came out.

A 128GB Switch 2 and a 512GB or something like that at different prices, makes a lot of sense IMO.

People are used to these kinds of options anyway frankly. iPhones, tablets, even things like the Quest 3 VR headset, you get options on storage size, no one is going to be confused if a Switch offers it.

 

[Shoulder]

What i don't get is how would Nintendo save money with a digital SKU?

I doubt the costs of that little cart reader part, even when talking about a millions amount, would save them that much.

Though Nintendo could opt for a smaller built-in-storage for the physical SKU compared to digital to hit a notable amount of savings.

What I could see is they use the real estate that would've been used for the cartridge slot, and it becomes a secondary storage slot. So you have the embedded internal storage, microSD storage (or some equivalent), and then this other mass storage slot. Could be another microSD slot, or something newer like UFS, or CF Express Type A, or perhaps in even more wishful thinking, nvme m.2 2230 slot.

The issue with this approach though is you add additional complexity to the manufacturing process. Makes me think instead they would just keep everything the same minus the internal storage, and keep the cartridge slot for the purposes of BC ala Wii having GCN controller ports.

In a rather Nintendo way, I could almost see them keep the cartridge slot, but introduce a writable Cartridge for mass storage for your digital games, so if say you wanted to go to a friend's house like in the old days, we could insert the cartridge slot into their Switch, and play our games that way. But then in another Nintendo fashion, there would be checks and balances to prevent piracy, or maybe using your smartphone to authorize its use like it's a contactless payment.

That said, the obvious answer is to just bring your Switch with you to your friends house.

I don't know though. There are so many possibilities of what Nintendo might do, and all of them seem plausible in some way.

 

[ns156]

Do you never look on the eshop? Even if you buy 90% physical, the amount of games that drop into "free with gold coins from physical" happens on a weekly basis from 3rd parties and indies. It sounds to me like you're just not being active enough on the digital store front to take advantage of the free money Nintendo gives you. Nintendo could give you 100 years and it sounds like you'd still not take advantage of it.

I mostly buy and care about Nintendo stuff for the first party Nintendo published titles. Why would I care about indies and third parties that I could just get cheaper elsewhere to begin with?

Come on man, you knew I was talking about Nintendo games.

EDIT: To make it crystal clear, Nintendo's points system is woeful compared to the much more common sales that happen on other systems, especially Steam. We know Nintendo likes to artificially elevate the value of their brand by never discounting their games directly, except on very rare circumstances.

This would need to change if they expect us to all be forced into digital. Whether that's by not having points expire, doing actual sales on their evergreen titles more than once in a century, or whatever.

 

[Skittzo]

Wouldn't all dev kits, by default be digital only?

Legit asking, i have no idea right now if devs/pubs right now would have the option of having test-lines for carts?

Yeah no idea.

I don't think the 2 SKU thing holds much water, especially when you say one lacks BC. A lot of people seem to think there's some uncertainty about BC in general so they're coming up with theories to "explain" the confusion... but there's really no confusion. BC should be possible, without too much trouble.

Feels like this is someone reaching to try to explain a problem that doesn't exist.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I still don't believe in a two sku model since it doesn't make much sense, nor are there any savings to be had for Nintendo. it's not a coincidence that Sony shipped more disc models than digital models, and the same will be true for the revision. the price increase of a physical Drake will far outweigh what they save by removing the card slot

and you throw in BC, then there's even less reason for people to go with the digital model. I highly doubt we're gonna see a $300/$400 split. not even Sony is doing that now

 

[Dark Cloud]

Either we get the one physical fully BC switch 2 or we get 2 SKUs with one physical and one digital. Idc either way. Nothing to argue about because I’ll still get my physical Switch 2.

 

[Giancarlo]

I guarantee you Nintendo will not re-upload the Switch reveal trailer in 2023.

how are so certain on this?

 

[Bonejack]

What I could see is they use the real estate that would've been used for the cartridge slot, and it becomes a secondary storage slot. So you have the embedded internal storage, microSD storage (or some equivalent), and then this other mass storage slot. Could be another microSD slot, or something newer like UFS, or CF Express Type A, or perhaps in even more wishful thinking, nvme m.2 2230 slot.

The issue with this approach though is you add additional complexity to the manufacturing process. Makes me think instead they would just keep everything the same minus the internal storage, and keep the cartridge slot for the purposes of BC ala Wii having GCN controller ports.

In a rather Nintendo way, I could almost see them keep the cartridge slot, but introduce a writable Cartridge for mass storage for your digital games, so if say you wanted to go to a friend's house like in the old days, we could insert the cartridge slot into their Switch, and play our games that way. But then in another Nintendo fashion, there would be checks and balances to prevent piracy, or maybe using your smartphone to authorize its use like it's a contactless payment.

That said, the obvious answer is to just bring your Switch with you to your friends house.

I don't know though. There are so many possibilities of what Nintendo might do, and all of them seem plausible in some way.

I say the ones that cost unnecessarily much more money and the ones that would lead to a shitstorm backlash PR for them are not plausible.

This is Nintendo, after all. ;D

Yeah no idea.

I don't think the 2 SKU thing holds much water, especially when you say one lacks BC. A lot of people seem to think there's some uncertainty about BC in general so they're coming up with theories to "explain" the confusion... but there's really no confusion. BC should be possible, without too much trouble.

Feels like this is someone reaching to try to explain a problem that doesn't exist.

Yeah, i gotta agree.

 

[Giancarlo]

Do you have a link for this news?

It seems strange to me that Nintendo changes the music of a trailer to avoid paying for the renewal of the license and then pays for the license of another song...

https://gamerant.com/nintendo-switch-reveal-video-youtube-removal/

 

[darthdiablo]

"latter part of the year" means "late in the year" not "second half of the year."

lmao. That's truly reaching.

 

[Shoulder]

I say the ones that cost unnecessarily much more money and the ones that would lead to a shitstorm backlash PR for them are not plausible.

This is Nintendo, after all. ;D

I believe Nintendo have plans to integrate their smartphone app more rather than add individual features to the system itself. They did manage to put voice chat onto the app, but not the system. This is Nintendo, after all.

 

[Plum]

Nintendo Fans discuss Nintendo's possible Backwards Compatibility solution for its Nintendo Switch Successor (Circa 2023, Colourised)

 

[Giancarlo]

 

[goudsoup]

Another possibility that just popped into my head: if internal storage speeds have increased considerably to the point where micro SD is no longer a viable storage method to run games off of, and mandatory installs become a necessary evil, then Nintendo might find it reasonable to offer 2 SKUs: a 128GB model for 399 USD and a 256GB model for 449 USD.

Maybe add some extra knicknacks here and there to make the more 'premium' package more appealing, but ideally both SKUs would have the same functionality in terms of BC and performance, you'd just end up moving games from the internal memory to the SD much more frequently on the base model.

 

[Machrider]

Another possibility that just popped into my head: if internal storage speeds have increased considerably to the point where micro SD is no longer a viable storage method to run games off of, and mandatory installs become a necessary evil, then Nintendo might find it reasonable to offer 2 SKUs: a 128GB model for 399 USD and a 256GB model for 449 USD.

Maybe add some extra knicknacks here and there to make the more 'premium' package more appealing, but ideally both SKUs would have the same functionality in terms of BC and performance, you'd just end up moving games from the internal memory to the SD much more frequently on the base model.

It's entirely reasonable. And dump the SD Cards for faster UFS proprietary Nintendo cards, and you got yourself a pretty decent setup.

 

[CalmMind]

A November reveal cancels out any notion of a 2nd half of 2024 release.

 

[Comic Obsessed]

If there's a digital only Switch I would buy if it's just as small as the Switch Lite and has a proper D-Pad too.

If for some insane reason is not digital BC then I say F that.

 

[Dark Cloud]

A November reveal cancels out any notion of a 2nd half of 2024 release.

Of course. Anything announced (liked dropped YouTube video) in the next 3 weeks then we know it’s coming by May the latest.

 

[goudsoup]

It's entirely reasonable. And dump the SD Cards for faster UFS proprietary Nintendo cards, and you got yourself a pretty decent setup.

Maybe it's the luddite in me speaking, but I would sincerely prefer they stick with SD. I understand that UFS is much faster, but the idea of propietary storage just makes me uneasy after what happened with the Vita.

 

[Machrider]

It doesn't really matter what you perceive Nintendo as. The Japanese branch has always considered themselves as a toy company, and they base a lot of their decisions on that concept.

Doug Bowser's statements may be the beginning of a change, but ultimately unless NoJ agree then no, still a toy company.

Mario movie made $1.3 billion+ dollars at the box office.

No shit they're not a toy company.

I don't really think honesty they've been a "toy company" since like the 80s, what "toys" in the 90s had a freaking Silicon Graphics chipset in them, lol. When I was growing up I actually wished Nintendo would make toys, things like Mario/Zelda/Star Fox/etc. toys weren't that common by the mid-late 90s/early 2000s, I totally would've bought a shit-ton of Nintendo toys/merch if they had offered it back in those days, it simply wasn't a lot of it available.

They were a toy company in the 70s, that's a long, long time ago now.

 

[CalmMind]

I don't know why but my gut is starting to tell me Team2025 might start becoming a thing.

You clearly ate something you shouldn't have.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Nintendo isn’t a toy company lol.

 

[Lancelot]

Mario movie made $1.3 billion+ dollars at the box office.

No shit they're not a toy company.

I don't really think honesty they've been a "toy company" since like the 80s, what "toys" in the 90s had a freaking Silicon Graphics chipset in them, lol. When I was growing up I actually wished Nintendo would make toys, things like Mario/Zelda/Star Fox/etc. toys weren't that common by the mid-late 90s/early 2000s, I totally would've bought a shit-ton of Nintendo toys/merch if they had offered it back in those days, it simply wasn't available.

They were a toy company in the 70s, that's a long, long time ago now.

It's funny since EPD Tokyo themselves at Japan made the Mario designs for the movie and all what goes with it. They had a lot more involvement in the movie than most think, and the reason even Peach's design has been changed for her signature title to further resemble it. That's how they want Mario to look like, period, Nintendo is way more than just a toy company at this point.

 

[PandaAndino]

Just add oled screen to the card slot version. Everybody wins, Now are there really someone saying that BC will be physical only? Lol

 

[Skittzo]

A November reveal cancels out any notion of a 2nd half of 2024 release.

Eh I don't really think a November reveal is on the table anymore. We'd probably have heard at least a bit more about something being imminent.

I'd be pleasantly surprised though!

 

[Suswave]

I don't know why but my gut is starting to tell me Team2025 might start becoming a thing.

always has been

not my team of course, I’m out in the cornfields of 2027

 

[Bonejack]

Eh I don't really think a November reveal is on the table anymore. We'd probably have heard at least a bit more about something being imminent.

I'd be pleasantly surprised though!

Personally, the only thing i could see is a PR announcement.

And that technically wouldn't be something anyone has to know outside of a few key people.

 

[ns156]

Mario movie made $1.3 billion+ dollars at the box office.

No shit they're not a toy company.

I don't really think all honesty they've been a "toy company" since like the 80s, what "toys" in the 90s had a freaking Silicon Graphics chipset in them, lol. When I was growing up I actually wished Nintendo would make toys, things like Mario/Zelda/Star Fox/etc. toys weren't that common by the mid-late 90s/early 2000s, I totally would've bought a shit-ton of Nintendo toys/merch if they had offered it back in those days, it simply wasn't available.

I hate to tell you this, but up until the last few years, video games were firmly seen as toys. Some people are just too proud to accept that, I think. Nintendo primarily targets a younger audience as a toy company. What's so outlandish about that? You don't think Labo VR and Mario Kart AR aren't toys? They run their company like one, lol.

It's funny since EPD Tokyo themselves at Japan made the Mario designs for the movie and all what goes with it. They had a lot more involvement in the movie than most think, and the reason even Peach's design has been changed for her signature title to further resemble it. That's how they want Mario to look like, period, Nintendo is way more than just a toy company at this point.

They want Mario to look like illumination/dreamworks? Sounds like a toy to me!

 

[Dark Cloud]

We’re not your enemy. People act like we want Nintendo to announce this system next year so it can release in H2 2024. Everyone would be glad for it to be announced by November. We all win if it comes sooner.

 

[mjayer]

I, for one, got the oneders reference, Nate. If I'm being a critical, which I'm always being critical, I would love if you put out short rumor recap videos in addition to these long form discussions. I think you could get more traction out of a quick rundown.

Where would Nintendo get an expandable storage solution though that matches the speed of their internal storage for the Switch 2? SD-cards haven't really evolved since the OG Switch's release. Physical game carts are the most logical solution if Nintendo has to keep the internal storage capacity low to reduce costs. (Also physical is still very popular in Japan and i believe in Europe too)
I'm expecting 256GB of internal storage at best and 128GB at worst, with the latter being the most likely scenario. You're not going to fit many games even with 256GB so expandable storage is a necessity. I think Nintendo will for the the first ever settle for a proprietary solution like how Microsoft has done it with the NVME sticks on Series S & X.

Well if Nintendo DID go all digital (I actually still don't think there's a good chance they do, but there is a chance) then they may be much more willing to sell their console at cost or even at a loss...knowing they are going to make much more profit per game sale. In which case we could see a 512GB to 1TB Switch 2.

A quick thought I had... what if Nintendo introduced Amiibo 2.0 in this cursed all-digital future as the "physical form" of their games. AKA buy this amiibo, when scanned will download the game to all compatible Switch hardware (which will, Nintendo will promise, be all future Switch hardware, also can only be downloaded to one Nintendo Online account at one time, or some other bullcrap) And they are more detailed than current amiibo, but cost $99 bucks.

Eh? Eh? Cursed Nintendo future sounds possible!

 

[Concernt]

Eh I don't really think a November reveal is on the table anymore. We'd probably have heard at least a bit more about something being imminent.

I'd be pleasantly surprised though!

Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence... At all.

Do people forget September and October 2016? Until like a week before reveal, we had a lot LESS noise than we gave now, and we've had noise about this for months, even years!

 

[Lancelot]

They want Mario to look like illumination/dreamworks? Sounds like a toy to me!

I want to assume you're joking.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence... At all.

Do people forget September and October 2016? Until like a week before reveal, we had a lot LESS noise than we gave now, and we've had noise about this for months, even years!

The Switch launched with five games and did not have an original and significant release post launch for three months (Arms). It had no relevant third party games near launch other a Lego game.

The Switch 2’s launch will likely be very different.

 

[ns156]

I want to assume you're joking.

It's more me saying the illumination cartoony look is outright terrible, tbh. I certainly hope they do not start changing the games to look anything like that going forward.

 

[Concernt]

Personally, the only thing i could see is a PR announcement.

And that technically wouldn't be something anyone has to know outside of a few key people.

Even a short simple reveal video is relatively easy to keep under wraps until the last moment.

It's not like Nintendo Switch where there was this big new formfactor... There just isn't much to leak? It's a new Switch, and we've had leaks about the controllers being round and colourful, and we've had a leak of the ENTIRE SOC.

What are we even looking for at this point? Do we expect photos to leak before reveal? Never happened for Switch, just some drawings, a week before launch, which were so wrong the leaker apologised and got a lot of heat for it.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Lemme try to see the business rationale for two SKUS: physical and digital…
• Physical will be more expensive, probably $449 to 499, so it won’t be sold at a loss;
• Digital will probably be $399 to 449. The benefit of all digital is that they could capitalize the revenue difference from the physical model by having digital owners:
— Use the eShop for purchase, thus the revenue cut of software for Nintendo will be muuuch bigger because they’re buying in their platform, plus they don’t have to factor costs of manufacturing, distribution and storage of the physical games, nor retail presence.
—— Speaking of retail presence: less retail presence, less units to manufacture, less costs associated for physical game distribution
— Nintendo is preparing for a market reality where digital will continue to eat up physical sales
— All digital would let hardware have more space for other stuff, like better/extra features and/or better cooling system

—————

[EDIT]:

• I forgot to add: this also incentivizes owners to get an eShop account and invest in the $100 voucher, which is the closest we’ll have Nintendo having sales for first party games

 

[Dark Cloud]

Even a short simple reveal video is relatively easy to keep under wraps until the last moment.

It's not like Nintendo Switch where there was this big new formfactor... There just isn't much to leak? It's a new Switch, and we've had leaks about the controllers being round and colourful, and we've had a leak of the ENTIRE SOC.

What are we even looking for at this point? Do we expect photos to leak before reveal? Never happened for Switch, just some drawings, a week before launch, which were so wrong the leaker apologised and got a lot of heat for it.

We have?

 

[Individualised]

It's more me saying the illumination cartoony look is outright terrible, tbh. I certainly hope they do not start changing the games to look anything like that going forward.

Mario's design in particular looks like something out of a cheap British claymation cartoon from the 2000s. I can't get used to it at all.

 

[Lancelot]

It's more me saying the illumination cartoony look is outright terrible, tbh. I certainly hope they do not start changing the games to look anything like that going forward.

I thought it was an excellent translation of how Mario could look like with basically infinite processing power, it's easily the prettiest Nintendo artstyle since their glory power days because of this reason. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a different one (and I don't want another, anyways), even Peach's design was changed to resemble it, I'll still hold it's an early spoiler for their next gen 3D artstyle considering EPD basically made it.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Even a short simple reveal video is relatively easy to keep under wraps until the last moment.

It's not like Nintendo Switch where there was this big new formfactor... There just isn't much to leak? It's a new Switch, and we've had leaks about the controllers being round and colourful, and we've had a leak of the ENTIRE SOC.

What are we even looking for at this point? Do we expect photos to leak before reveal? Never happened for Switch, just some drawings, a week before launch, which were so wrong the leaker apologised and got a lot of heat for it.

Probably literally any leak about third party launch window games, lol.

 

[Skittzo]

Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence... At all.

Do people forget September and October 2016? Until like a week before reveal, we had a lot LESS noise than we gave now, and we've had noise about this for months, even years!

I'm not saying absence of evidence is evidence of absence, I just mean I don't really personally see it happening. I'd think differently if there was a bit more chatter, sure, but that doesn't mean I think it HAS to leak or anything.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Maybe it's the luddite in me speaking, but I would sincerely prefer they stick with SD. I understand that UFS is much faster, but the idea of propietary storage just makes me uneasy after what happened with the Vita.

it's not proprietary when anyone can make cards. if Nintendo has to push companies to make them, I doubt they'll go with that format. hence why I think UHS-II SD cards are an option, and they are usable with Switch's MicroSD cards