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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I don't get the obsession about expensive, fast storage. In any case, it still won't be enough not to require people to get an external expansion and it won't be fast enough to match the next gen.

Drake games will have loading times. Big , open world, AAA games designed around streaming ungodly amounts of assets through Direct Storage or similar APIs won't be on Drake. Why shouldn't Nintendo just cheap out? They wouldn't even have to explain different types of micro sd to their customers.

Storage expansion on PS5 and Xbox Series is something meant for enthusiasts and I expect the PS5 to remove the internal slot somewhere along its lifecycle to cut costs. It's not a necessity.
Mark Cerny mentioned third party developers requested a NVMe SSD with at least a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s for the PlayStation 5.

But that being said, a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s is achievable for UFS 2.2. And UFS 2.2 has been used in a good number of affordable smartphones (e.g. Oppo A76, Xiaomi Poco M4 Pro 5G, etc.). So I agree that using UFS 3.0 or newer is not absolutely necessary.
 
I've seen a lot of stories about the hardware development history of Nintendo, and from my point of view, it's not "normal" at all from Nintendo to "solicit feedback" from third parties.

Usually, Nintendo comes from a position that they don't need the third parties (and they really don't need them to survive, it's just a nice to have), Nintendo just tells partners the specs, that's what you have, live with it, they usually don't change much regardless of feedback, while other companies such as Sony, talk to third parties even before starting the development of the hardware.
Nintendo faced extremely negative feedback from devs on for example N64 and Wii specs, with many studios threatening to or ultimately abandoning Nintendo. In both cases Nintendo didn't change the specs much or at all and just lived with the consequences.
Generally yes, especially under the Yamauchi years, but from what I've read Iwata was working hard behind the scenes during the latter Wii years and especially the WiiU years to try and get third party goodwill back. I wouldn't be surprised if opening up to feedback from large, longtime developers like Capcom was a thing Iwata did.
 
On the subject of RAM for the original Switch:

Capture.png


This gigaleak slide from June 2015 shows they were already planning on using 4 GB (although it's bolded, so maybe it was changed recently?). Funnily enough, it also shows they were planning on 16 GB of internal storage at that point. That changed to 32 GB sometime in the next 8-ish months, though.
My understanding of the story was that Capcom warned Nintendo about the lack of RAM, probably saying they should've 8, and Nintendo bumped from 3 to 4.
Generally yes, especially under the Yamauchi years, but from what I've read Iwata was working hard behind the scenes during the latter Wii years and especially the WiiU years to try and get third party goodwill back. I wouldn't be surprised if opening up to feedback from large, longtime developers like Capcom was a thing Iwata did.
Yes, but from the stories we know, the Switch hardware development still didn't have much involvement from third parties. Iwatas advances were more in things such as better dev tools, better licensing deals, like the Switch dev kit only costing $ 500, compared to the several thousands on previous Nintendo systems from what I've heard.
 
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Mark Cerny mentioned third party developers requested a NVMe SSD with at least a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s for the PlayStation 5.

But that being said, a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s is achievable for UFS 2.2. And UFS 2.2 has been used in a good number of affordable smartphones (e.g. Oppo A76, Xiaomi Poco M4 Pro 5G, etc.). So I agree that using UFS 3.0 or newer is not absolutely necessary.
But this is not a Playstation 5 and it's not expected to have the performance of a Playstation 5. That's the whole point. Its main draw will be to be able to play all eight generation games portably, Nintendo games, indie games and AA games.

Tlou 3 will most likely not be able to run acceptably on this thing but, if it's powerful enough, more 9th gen AAA games will be developed for Drake than 8th gen AAA games have been developed for Switch.
 
I know you've had some pushback here, but just to reiterate (kindly!) - they really don't. The formula for both the Wii and the Wii U was "our competitors last gen power, but with more RAM". RAM is basically the one place they've been willing to go hard for the last couple of systems.
The Switch has half of the RAM of it's concurrence. Again, the Wii U having 4 times the RAM of PS3 is nothing special, it was a generation above, it still had 4 times less RAM than it's actual concurrence the PS4 and XO. So I really don't understand you guys' logic here.
Nintendo does have the tradition of underdelivering in the RAM department compared to the concurrence, and regardless of current needs in gaming, that's a fact from my point of view, from analyzing the final specs of past systems compared to the concurrence, it's a simple logic.
Arguably, the best launch title is one that is makes people want to buy your machine. Breath of the Wild made lots of people own a Switch because that was the way to play Breath of the Wild since very few people owned a Wii U. Tears of the Kingdom is not that experience, with roughly ten times as many Switches sold as Wii U.

If, in March, Nintendo announces that you need the NuSwitch to play the Full Fat Tears of the Kingdom Experience, and the Nu Switch is as hard to get as, say, the OLED model was... do you think that increases sales of the NuSwitch? Or does it reduce sales of Tears of the Kingdom for folks who want to wait? Or are the graphical improvements small enough that people will buy ToTK regardless of whether or not they can get a NuSwitch? In which case, what is the TotK doing for the new hardware?
I see where you coming from and this is probably most people's first thought.

But, hardcore gamers are more complex than that. Most hardcore Zelda fans absolutely won't miss out on the best version of TotK, even if they can't get Drake at launch, they will double dip/ upgrade as soon as they can.

We have examples of very successful launches despite the launch titles being cross gen, like TP on Wii, SM Miles on PS5.

I also don't think TOTK is the ideal launch title, I just think it's the best they might realistically have right now.
It would've been better to have a completely new Zelda with more realistic graphics like the Zelda U tech demo to show Drake's graphical capabilities, but I doubt they will release such a game so close to TOTK, although I personally believe a true next gen Zelda has been in development for a long time now alongside TOTK.
 
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My understanding of the story was that Capcom warned Nintendo about the lack of RAM, probably saying they should've 8, and Nintendo bumped from 3 to 8.
4GB, not 8. Sony was told that PS4 would fail if it did not have 8GB, so they upped it to that.
Yes, but from the stories we know, the Switch hardware development still didn't have much involvement from third parties. Iwatas advances were more in things such as better dev tools, better licensing deals, like the Switch dev kit only costing $ 500, compared to the several thousands on previous Nintendo systems from what I've heard.
That's different from what I've been reading, that Nintendo involved 3rd-parties early on in Switch's design.
 
But this is not a Playstation 5 and it's not expected to have the performance of a Playstation 5. That's the whole point. Its main draw will be to be able to play all eight generation games portably, Nintendo games, indie games and AA games.

Tlou 3 will most likely not be able to run acceptably on this thing but, if it's powerful enough, more 9th gen AAA games will be developed for Drake than 8th gen AAA games have been developed for Switch.
I do think the goal is to have most gen 9 AAA multiplats and I do think it's realistically possible thanks to DLSS.

I think there will be specific titles that make heavy use of the faster memory in their game design that won't be able to run on Drake, but let's say your average AAA games we have right now just with better graphics, I think they will all be able to run on Drake.
 
Letsa go.


  1. Jasen is interrupted mid-sentence by someone "Where did you get that footage from, Jensen! You're not supposed to have that, that's from our new game. Ugh!" Introduces himself as someone from Retro Studios, talks about development and how excited they are... "Well, we might as well show the full trailer at this point" it looks on par with Halo Infinite... debates on the internet erupt over if it looks better or not.
I hope mp4 doesnt looks like infinite at all!

But it was a lovely post overall : )
 
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4GB, not 8. Sony was told that PS4 would fail if it did not have 8GB, so they upped it to that.
Yes, that was a typo, already edited.

That's different from what I've been reading, that Nintendo involved 3rd-parties early on in Switch's design.
I don't remember reading that in Iwatas interviews or on Reggies book, I could be wrong obviously, none of us knows the full story.
 
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I don't get the obsession about expensive, fast storage. In any case, it still won't be enough not to require people to get an external expansion and it won't be fast enough to match the next gen.

Drake games will have loading times. Big , open world, AAA games designed around streaming ungodly amounts of assets through Direct Storage or similar APIs won't be on Drake. Why shouldn't Nintendo just cheap out? They wouldn't even have to explain different types of micro sd to their customers.

Storage expansion on PS5 and Xbox Series is something meant for enthusiasts and I expect the PS5 to remove the internal slot somewhere along its lifecycle to cut costs. It's not a necessity.
UFS is dirt cheap, eMMC is just cheaper. UFS is extremely common

storage apis similar to DirectStorage will definitely be there because it doesn't require specific hardware. it's a software solution that Nvidia had for years already. whether or not it'll be used, we probably won't even know

kinda hard to cheap out when the cheap solutions are still faster than the Switch. hell, it's already in the switch as the storage isn't the bottleneck, the cpu is
 
The Switch has half of the RAM of it's concurrence. Again, the Wii U having 4 times the RAM of PS3 is nothing special, it was a generation above, it still had 4 times less RAM than it's actual concurrence the PS4 and XO. So I really don't think you guys' logic holds too much water here.
Nintendo does have the tradition of underdelivering on the RAM department compared to the concurrence, and regardless of current needs in gaming.
Given that Switch in overall power lies between PS4/XB1 and PS3/360, having any more than 4GB would have been a waste, especially given that the Tegra X1's RAM bandwidth was restricted to 25.6GB/s.
 
The Switch has half of the RAM of it's concurrence. Again, the Wii U having 4 times the RAM of PS3 is nothing special, it was a generation above, it still had 4 times less RAM than it's actual concurrence the PS4 and XO. So I really don't understand you guys' logic here.
Nintendo does have the tradition of underdelivering in the RAM department compared to the concurrence, and regardless of current needs in gaming, that's a fact from my point of view, from analyzing the final specs of past systems compared to the concurrence, it's a simple logic.
The better way to look at it is to look at my post upthread responding to your original comment. The Wii was basically a X360 pro, Switch was a refinement of that idea in a different form factor, so it doesn't fit neatly. If this new device is targeting the 2-4TF power range but improving on it with years of improvements to tech, then they will very likely go with more RAM. 12 makes sense (the XBONEX has 12), but 16 also since 8GB RAM modules are widely used in phones and the price difference may not be huge.

Looking at the current generation of consoles and halving the RAM doesn't make as much sense since it's just a number, look at the target spec and build up because there's actually a history of that happening. You are looking at a specific number and halving it because reasons.
 
storage apis similar to DirectStorage will definitely be there because it doesn't require specific hardware. it's a software solution that Nvidia had for years already. whether or not it'll be used, we probably won't even know
I know what Direct Storage is. I am saying that trying to match the asset streaming capabilities of the PS5 is a futile exercise
kinda hard to cheap out when the cheap solutions are still faster than the Switch. hell, it's already in the switch as the storage isn't the bottleneck, the cpu is
I never said storage won't or shouldn't be faster, just that trying to make it faster at all costs is not the best choice, especially if it prevents customers from just buying a micro sd and using it with the console like it was suggested in this thread in the past.
 
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The Switch has half of the RAM of it's concurrence
This is irrelevant. Your statement was "Nintendo notoriously cheaps out on RAM." Not "Nintendo's machines are generally specced lower than their counterparts."

. Again, the Wii U having 4 times the RAM of PS3 is nothing special, it was a generation above, it still had 4 times less RAM than it's actual concurrence the PS4 and XO. So I really don't understand you guys' logic here.

The logic is that Nintendo releases low power devices, as you say. So to compare a Nintendo device to it's competitors, then weirdly single out the RAM, say it's less than the competitors, and totally ignore the rest of the hardware design isn't a valid way to decide if the amount of RAM is low. If Nintendo cheaps out on RAM specifically then we would expect to see less RAM in their machines relative to the rest of the speccs. We do not.

When Switch came out it was a mobile device with more RAM than the high end iPhone and comparable RAM to the high end Samsung device.
The Wii U had a GPU that was roughly the same class as a low end Radeon that shipped with half a gig of RAM, and the Wii U had 4 times that.
The Wii used an overclocked GameCube GPU, but gave it 8x the amount of dedicated graphics RAM.

These are not hardware designs that are RAM limited. Their limitations are elsewhere, so much so that a generous increase in RAM would not see significantly increased performance. The thing that Nintendo is actually notorious for is using excess RAM to overcome to limitations of their underpowered GPUs.

We know that Drake's performance profile puts it in the neighborhood of the PS4. Nintendo's pattern has been to land in last gen's power area, then add RAM to that to cover the gap. Which would be 12GB.

Do I expect 12GB? No. 8GB is perfectly fine.
Does Nintendo cheap out on RAM specifically? No.
 
Even if Drake had only double the RAM of Switch like how the PS5/XSX have double what PS4/XB1 had, I wouldn't necessarily say it's bad. We have to look at other aspects. What PS5/Series have over their predecessors is not just using SSDs over HDDs, but also incorporating hardware decompression as opposed to slower software decompression on the CPU. I believe Cerny noted how that combination would allow on-the-fly loading of assets at the frame level, like spinning the camera around, and parts of the world are loaded/unloaded in real-time.

Drake is said to have this advantage as well (FDE + possibly UFS), so the need to have an exorbitant amount of RAM is not necessary.
 
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I've seen a lot of stories about the hardware development history of Nintendo, and from my point of view, it's not "normal" at all from Nintendo to "solicit feedback" from third parties.
I have no idea where you're getting this from. In all likelihood Nintendo literally sends out early hardware and SDKs with their own feedback forms. How much they take that feedback under consideration will vary with circumstances, but I assure you they've done some amount of this since the 2000s.

My understanding of the story was that Capcom warned Nintendo about the lack of RAM, probably saying they should've 8, and Nintendo bumped from 3 to 4.
Also no. In fact, in that conference talk, Capcom said 4 GB was exactly what they recommended.

Like I said, this is all really trying to a push a narrative here and it's just not true even to the facts of the Capcom story that created this particular bit of trivia.
 
Not sure why I broke down my predictions in this way, but here goes:

1. Announced January 2023; Released (17) March 2023
2. Launch Titles: Metroid Prime Remake, unannounced third party exclusive (multi platform w/ Drake support), 4K patches for select evergreens
3. Pricing: $400 USD; OLED price dropped to $300; Lite $200 and Redbox discounted, removed from marketing (I could also see $450 with no price drops anywhere)
5. Announced with 3D Mario or Donkey Kong; Releasing end of 2023; TotK enhanced on its release in May
6. Announced with Dragon Quest XII trailer; Drake and PS5 only; Releasing 2024
Lite has always been $200. Maybe $150?
1. Nintendo announced new Switch Revision in February direct and goes on sale in March. last big push for the old aging Switch hardware. More of a cost saving thing ( like Sony did with PS5)

2. Nintendo reveals Drake on March 2024 and urges people to wait for June Direct “Lot’s of surprises are coming, stay tuned!“

3. Drake release in August 2024 for $449, 12GB Ram and 128GB storage

4. Metroid Prime 4 is one of the launch games

5. features new Joy cons with analog triggers

6. Nintendo releases BoTW Deluxe edition with the game running at 60fos and at 4K via DLSS
4k 60fps with DLSS maybe (I'm thinking more like 1440p 60fps), but RT will cut it down to 30 fps and likely a lower resolution as well.
Arguably, the best launch title is one that is makes people want to buy your machine. Breath of the Wild made lots of people own a Switch because that was the way to play Breath of the Wild since very few people owned a Wii U. Tears of the Kingdom is not that experience, with roughly ten times as many Switches sold as Wii U.

If, in March, Nintendo announces that you need the NuSwitch to play the Full Fat Tears of the Kingdom Experience, and the Nu Switch is as hard to get as, say, the OLED model was... do you think that increases sales of the NuSwitch? Or does it reduce sales of Tears of the Kingdom for folks who want to wait? Or are the graphical improvements small enough that people will buy ToTK regardless of whether or not they can get a NuSwitch? In which case, what is the TotK doing for the new hardware?

I honestly can't think of a more "meh" launch than Tears of the Kingdom. I am aware I am in the minority here, but I don't find the package compelling.

I kinda disagree that it would make it a meh launch for Drake. It is hard to predict right now how much better the experience we will be in Drake, when we don't even know the performance on switch will be. Will Totk the same resolution and performance as botw or less? Who knows. It's true that switch botw will have the bigger impact though since Wii u's install base is so small.

If it's 600-720p handheld, they could make handheld Drake have that same performance profile to save battery, but also a solid super sampling 720p (and maybe 60 fps), with better draw distance, lighting (potentially DLSS) and shadows. Maybe higher quality textures. Who knows.
On the big screen, 4k 30 fps minimum with increased Fidelity or 1440p 30fps performance... Orr a 1080p mode with RT on with 30 fps. That's how I can see them advertise Totk on Drake. Would be a shocker to see the day Nintendo regularly support multiple performance profiles for their 1st party Drake games.

I also want to play, here are my predictions:

1. releases the same day as Tears of the Kingdom (the one I'm least confident in)
2. Has a larger, 1080p OLED screen (7.5 inches), 128GB of (non-esoteric) storage and bigger joycons. Normal Micro sd slot.
3. The next Mario Kart and the 3D Mario Team's new game are Drake exclusive and releasing during launch year
4. Backwards compatibility PS5-style, no patches for older games. A few games (like Smash Ultimate) get 70$ Deluxe editions with improvements.
5. Nintendo of America in particular wants every PS4 AAA game on the console and pushes their partners to port everything relevant in the early years of the platform
6. They want rapid adoption, so they'll phase out every other model except the Switch Lite by Christmas.

I think people overestimate the impact of a high price in 2023. Today spending a lot of money on tech has been perfectly normalized by smartphones manufacturers, the xbox series s is readily available on shelves despite series x and playstation 5 being hard to find and "Nintendo Switch" is a household name not comparable to the gimmicky Wii everyone had lost interest in by 2012
We're not getting a new Mario kart next year. Not when we are getting the last MK8d dlc pack by end of Q4 2023.

Also have my hesitations about a 1080p screen... And removing all switch models except lite by next Xmas..
 
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So what to people here think of Nidia Shield TV users losing acces to Gamestream early next year?
Link
Could this be because a news Shield TV is releasing next year?
Or and there for indicate an new switch is releasing next year?
It is far fetched I know.
But strange after the support the Shield TV got
 
We're not getting a new Mario kart next year. Not when we are getting the last MK8d dlc pack by end of Q4 2023.

Also have my hesitations about a 1080p screen... And removing all switch models except lite by next Xmas..
Launch year could also mean 2024. Mario Kart 8 was released in 2014 and hasn't stopped selling since. Releasing a new Mario Kart to sell alongside the system is a guaranteed system seller for its entire lifetime. We also don't know what Yabuki's team has been doing.

I said a 1080p 7.5inch screen because, despite every possible interesting technical aspect, the best selling point for a mobile device is "bigger, better screen". I think the objection about artifacts some pages ago is something no normal person will ever notice. 120hz would also be weird: not only would it be a colossal waste of resources, but the game on tv would also have to cut its fps! 120hz tvs are rare and they won't become mainstream any time soon.
HD ready/720p -> FullHD/1080p is also something that has been marketed and explained to the general population for years and that people understand. It's the reason the ps4 pro was marketed as "it does your games in 4k" even though that wasn't really true.

Out of every possible predition the 1080p screen is the most obvious one and I frankly do not understand why it gets so much pushback in this thread.

You want the premium model? Buy Drake. Cheap one? Buy Switch Lite. There's not really the market conditions to keep 4 models in a 200$ range with sensible margins. It doesn't make sense to keep the v2 and OLED at low margins as I see often suggested here.

Switch Lite with a game -> 200$
Drake -> 400$

Switch Lite aside, it's what Sony did with the Playstation 5 and it worked well for them.

So what to people here think of Nidia Shield TV users losing acces to Gamestream early next year?
Link
Could this be because a news Shield TV is releasing next year?
Or and there for indicate an new switch is releasing next year?
It is far fetched I know.
But strange after the support the Shield TV got

Nvidia suggests to use the Steam link, it probably simply doesn't make sense for them to continue maintaining an alternative, as simple as that.
 
1. A Super Bowl ad shows revealing a quick tease of what's to come and more to be revealed at a later date. Ad ends with new Switch logo and later date.
2. Nintendo of America posts new trailer focussing on new hardware and its features and what sets it apart from current Switch without saying so. e.g. the games.
3. The Switch 2 is revealed with a MSRP of $399 USD. It is totally backwards compatible with all current Switch software. Joycons are now Hall Effect.
4. shows 3rd party partner reel
The 3rd party situation improves exponentially.
5. Revival of a few classic IP are revealed, Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime 4 and a new 3D Mario are all revealed to be 2023 games.
6. Lastly, a full and final trailer for Tears of the Kingdom is revealed. Switch 2 releases same day. Preorders go live soon after crashing Nintendo's and several retailers sites for a week.
 
1. A Super Bowl ad shows revealing a quick tease of what's to come and more to be revealed at a later date. Ad ends with new Switch logo and later date.
Nintendo is a japanese company that cares very much about its home country. There's 0% of a reveal at an american event. Imagine Apple revealing their vr headset during next year's Eurovision
 
Launch year could also mean 2024. Mario Kart 8 was released in 2014 and hasn't stopped selling since. Releasing a new Mario Kart to sell alongside the system is a guaranteed system seller for its entire lifetime. We also don't know what Yabuki's team has been doing.

Exactly. Given the sales profile of Mario Kart, it's essential to release a new one within the first 6 months of a new system in my opinion.
 
Launch year could also mean 2024. Mario Kart 8 was released in 2014 and hasn't stopped selling since. Releasing a new Mario Kart to sell alongside the system is a guaranteed system seller for its entire lifetime. We also don't know what Yabuki's team has been doing.
We know exactly what they've been doing - making Mario Kart Tour, and then reworking those tracks for extended MK DLC. They went straight into that after making ARMS. EPD9 makes a Mario Kart for the main console, they make a handheld Mario Kart, then they go back.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe let them make ARMS instead, then they made a handheld Mario Kart... for phones. Tour has as much content as any other Mario Kart game, it's running at a similar quality, requires a totally new engine, and a new control scheme.

I doubt that there is a second, full fat Mario Kart that has been in parallel development the whole time, that will drop a game within months of MK8DX DLC finishing up.

Exactly. Given the sales profile of Mario Kart, it's essential to release a new one within the first 6 months of a new system in my opinion.
I don't know about essential. The Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS, SNES, all launched without a Mario Kart in their first six months. Nintendo probably wants to replace MK8, because the attach rate is so high, that even with new hardware they're gonna run out of people to sell the thing to, but since the Booster Course Pass, it seems unlikely they're ready to move on.
 
Do I expect 12GB? No. 8GB is perfectly fine.
Does Nintendo cheap out on RAM specifically? No.
I agree. 8GB RAM in a device released before next September would, once again, be more than the contemporary iPhone (even the iPhone Pro!). It's a healthy figure.

The days of gaming platforms getting 16x more RAM generation-on-generation are pretty much over. That's not just a Nintendo thing, that's a "reaching the limits of current science" thing. Doubling is fine.
 
That's a bit narrow. Before 8 Deluxe the most successful Mario Kart game was Wii, which arrived 1.5 years after launch.

The demographic of the Wii and the switch is quite different.
On Switch, Mario Kart sold incredibly well throughout the entire life of the console, and probably helped selling more hardware; the success of the Wii was more linked to the novelty of the motion control experience, and Mario Kart wasn't as instrumental in that regard.
Assuming a similar demographic for the next Switch, it would be beneficial to release a new Mario Kart as early as possible. I do not believe that Nintendo would release ARMS 2 instead, for example.
 
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I agree. 8GB RAM in a device released before next September would, once again, be more than the contemporary iPhone (even the iPhone Pro!). It's a healthy figure.

The days of gaming platforms getting 16x more RAM generation-on-generation are pretty much over. That's not just a Nintendo thing, that's a "reaching the limits of current science" thing. Doubling is fine.
Depends on what their goal are. If they want as many ports as possible, 12 is definitely a lot better than 8.
 
If, in March, Nintendo announces that you need the NuSwitch to play the Full Fat Tears of the Kingdom Experience, and the Nu Switch is as hard to get as, say, the OLED model was... do you think that increases sales of the NuSwitch? Or does it reduce sales of Tears of the Kingdom for folks who want to wait? Or are the graphical improvements small enough that people will buy ToTK regardless of whether or not they can get a NuSwitch? In which case, what is the TotK doing for the new hardware?

I honestly can't think of a more "meh" launch than Tears of the Kingdom. I am aware I am in the minority here, but I don't find the package compelling.
I think this disparity lies in the fact that for many the new Switch is not an exciting new product that needs sold but instead the savior of Nintendo games. i.e. launching with Zelda is good for the game, not the system.
 
We know exactly what they've been doing - making Mario Kart Tour, and then reworking those tracks for extended MK DLC. They went straight into that after making ARMS. EPD9 makes a Mario Kart for the main console, they make a handheld Mario Kart, then they go back.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe let them make ARMS instead, then they made a handheld Mario Kart... for phones. Tour has as much content as any other Mario Kart game, it's running at a similar quality, requires a totally new engine, and a new control scheme.

I doubt that there is a second, full fat Mario Kart that has been in parallel development the whole time, that will drop a game within months of MK8DX DLC finishing up.
The DLCs are tracks that had been already developed for the mobile game. While porting them to 8 is not as easy as pressing a button, I can't believe that's what the entire team has been doing for the past 3 years.
 
Just stating "2x improvement" here is hard for me to engage with when it's based on so much rough estimation. With how much uncertainty there is, starting with the wrong chip being used as the basis for all the numbers, to not knowing what changed in the design, there's more than enough to go from "the napkin math says this isn't possible" to "oh well it turned out to just barely be possible with OG Switch battery life."

Sorry for the delay in responding. I don't want to drag the discussion up again, I just don't feel, given the Orin power draw estimations coming from Nvidia, that there's sufficient wiggle room to get the full chip running at sufficiently low power on 8nm for a Switch form-factor device. Happy to agree to disagree on this one.

One part of the leaked source shows SM versions 8.6, 8.7, and 8.8 all mapping to SPA version 8.6, with another code comment referring to SM version as the "hardware revision" of the SM block, and SPA version as the ISA version. So if that's true, then all three share the same instruction set.

There is more info about the instructions in each ISA, organized by SM version, but SM88 is missing from it and it's a bit contradictory on whether SM86 and SM87 are identical and when exactly the Hopper instructions first became available.

Thanks. The Orin SMs are distinct from desktop Ampere SMs in that they have double-size tensor cores. I don't think it impacts the ISA, as it would still use the IMMA/HMMA instructions, but would definitely count as a "hardware revision", and may require the compiler to be aware to make effective use of them.

I don't get the obsession about expensive, fast storage. In any case, it still won't be enough not to require people to get an external expansion and it won't be fast enough to match the next gen.

Drake games will have loading times. Big , open world, AAA games designed around streaming ungodly amounts of assets through Direct Storage or similar APIs won't be on Drake. Why shouldn't Nintendo just cheap out? They wouldn't even have to explain different types of micro sd to their customers.

Storage expansion on PS5 and Xbox Series is something meant for enthusiasts and I expect the PS5 to remove the internal slot somewhere along its lifecycle to cut costs. It's not a necessity.

I don't think there's an "obsession" about storage, but it shouldn't be surprising that it keeps coming up. We have pretty good info on the CPU, GPU and RAM, but we know basically nothing about storage. That makes storage pretty much the only piece of the performance equation that's completely open to speculation, and this is a speculation thread, after all.

The other factor is that storage is an area where Nintendo actually can get close enough to allow for exactly those "Big , open world, AAA games designed around streaming ungodly amounts of assets through Direct Storage or similar APIs" without breaking their power or cost budget. The SSD of the PS5 in particular is absurdly over-specced, and even the Series X could have gotten away with a lot less than its 2.4GB/s. Considering the lower quality assets we'd expect on the new Switch model compared to these consoles, something around 1GB/s should be enough to prevent it being a significant bottleneck, and I think pretty much anyone in this thread would be happy with UFS 2.1 storage providing 1GB/s read speeds.

Here's a phone that launched two years ago for €200 with UFS 2.1 storage providing 1GB/s read speeds.

Storage like that isn't particularly expensive, or even particularly fast, to be honest. The latest UFS 4.0 based phones are hitting almost 3.5GB/s in sequential reads. We'll likely see mid-range phones switch to UFS 3.1 next year (which has actually already started, with this phone recently releasing with UFS 3.1 and almost 1.9GB/s sequential reads for €360), leaving slow, old ~1GB/s UFS 2 for the entry level of the market by the time the new Switch model releases.

Slow Switch load speeds haven't really been due to Nintendo cheaping out on storage, either. I can't find sequential read speeds for the eMMC used in early Switch models, but since at least 2019 in the Switch Lite they've been using the Samsung KLMBG2JETD-B041, which should hit around 300MB/s sequential reads (Samsung advertises 330MB/s for the 64GB variant, so the 32GB module Nintendo use probably comes in a bit lower). Nintendo multi-source components like the eMMC, but they're likely using similarly specced parts when they do so.

Switch games aren't bottlenecked by the storage itself when it comes to load times, they're typically bottlenecked by the CPU having to decompress the data. Hence why Nintendo added a boost mode which increases CPU clocks during loading, and why higher specced storage would have been pointless on the Switch. Drake isn't the TX1, though, and in particular it has a File Decompression Engine (FDE), which Nvidia seemingly designed specifically for Nintendo (it's not on Orin), and which should allow them to eliminate any CPU bottleneck when it comes to storage speeds. The fact that they went to the trouble of adding custom hardware like this is a very strong indication that Nintendo aren't going to cheap out on storage.

For external storage, as has been discussed many times, there are options. But the actual cost to Nintendo of supporting something like UFS cards or CFExpress is pretty trivial, as they use standard interfaces and should be able to be wired up directly to the SoC the same way an SD card slot can. I'm not sure about SD Express (it combines the old SD interface with NVMe, so might need an IC to interface correctly), but there are definitely options for faster external storage that cost Nintendo nearly nothing to support. Obviously availability and cost of the cards themselves to consumers is a different factor, but that's not a matter of Nintendo cheaping out.
 
Nintendo is a japanese company that cares very much about its home country. There's 0% of a reveal at an american event. Imagine Apple revealing their vr headset during next year's Eurovision
they can do both of course. airing the super bowl teaser and the jp teaser literally minutes afterwards. good marketing means tailoring ads to the location. taking advantage of the super bowl would be a good move to get people excited
 
We know exactly what they've been doing - making Mario Kart Tour, and then reworking those tracks for extended MK DLC. They went straight into that after making ARMS. EPD9 makes a Mario Kart for the main console, they make a handheld Mario Kart, then they go back.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe let them make ARMS instead, then they made a handheld Mario Kart... for phones. Tour has as much content as any other Mario Kart game, it's running at a similar quality, requires a totally new engine, and a new control scheme.

I doubt that there is a second, full fat Mario Kart that has been in parallel development the whole time, that will drop a game within months of MK8DX DLC finishing up.
sorry for the extra reply, but isn't Mario Kart Tour built in Unity? unless by totally new engine you meant totally new for the team
 
they can do both of course. airing the super bowl teaser and the jp teaser literally minutes afterwards. good marketing means tailoring ads to the location. taking advantage of the super bowl would be a good move to get people excited
Nintendo will never reveal a new hardware without their own terms lol. They will reveal their hardware on their exact terms, on their own circumstances. It's the same as some people thought it will be at TGA, will never ever happen.
 
Nintendo will never reveal a new hardware without their own terms lol. They will reveal their hardware on their exact terms, on their own circumstances. It's the same as some people thought it will be at TGA, will never ever happen.
I don't think it'll be there, but it's not impossible. and the post in question was about a teaser. it'd be a fancier "mario behind the curtain" twitter post essentially
 
Depends on what their goal are. If they want as many ports as possible, 12 is definitely a lot better than 8.
Most of the likely port candidates (eighth generation home console games and current cross-gen games) already run on hardware with 8GB of RAM, though. And significantly less than 8 of that is usable by games, in the case of the Xbox One.

I don't think they're likely to be designing this with the goal of enabling ports of native PS5/XSX games that push those consoles to the limit as a priority.
 
Most of the likely port candidates (eighth generation home console games and current cross-gen games) already run on hardware with 8GB of RAM, though. And significantly less than 8 of that is usable by games, in the case of the Xbox One.

I don't think they're likely to be designing this with the goal of enabling ports of native PS5/XSX games that push those consoles to the limit as a priority.
Maybe not those that push em to the limit. But a port here and there past cross gen, is probably something they want.
 
Out of every possible predition the 1080p screen is the most obvious one and I frankly do not understand why it gets so much pushback in this thread.
You know, I kinda agree, but let me make the alternative case.

The Switch is already at a retina pixel density. Just as most people wont see the artifacts, most people won't see the improvements either. Why lower the battery life for a change that will not be seen by most people, while your most picky fans will find to be a downgrade?

It's the battery life thing that I think is the crux. You've about 7-10W to play with, total, in handheld mode. An upgrade to a 1080p screen is ~10% of that alone.



You want the premium model? Buy Drake. Cheap one? Buy Switch Lite. There's not really the market conditions to keep 4 models in a 200$ range with sensible margins. It doesn't make sense to keep the v2 and OLED at low margins as I see often suggested here.
There aren't market conditions for 4 models, but there are absolutely market conditions for 3. We have 3 now for a reason. The Lite doesn't sell to price conscious gamers, it sells to handheld only gamers. The price point helps, mostly by allowing gamers to buy a second device for their kid/spouse, or for gamers who would never buy a console to justify a purchase of mobile hardware that can't make phone calls but can play Pokemon.

The v2 sells twice as many units as the Lite for a reason. As long as Nintendo is making Joy-Cons and putting LCD screens in the Lite, it also doesn't require any significant manufacturing investment or parts that Nintendo isn't going to keep around anyway. Keeping the v2 around makes sense.
 
I think this disparity lies in the fact that for many the new Switch is not an exciting new product that needs sold but instead the savior of Nintendo games. i.e. launching with Zelda is good for the game, not the system.

Not every game Nintendo releases needs “saving.” Nobody is (or very few people are) crying about Fire Emblem Engage’s visuals - they’re playing well within the specs. Luigi’s Mansion 3, Kirby, Breath of the Wild etc. are still acceptable (perhaps even great) looking titles. Tears of the Kingdom will sell exceptionally well, and I’m fairly confident performance complaints will be minor. Perhaps more than they were for Breath of the Wild, but a footnote in otherwise glowing impressions.

My instinct tells me that the new system needs Tears of the Kingdom far more than the inverse, and it needs to look notably better on the new system, otherwise many won’t even bother upgrading.
 
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Most of the likely port candidates (eighth generation home console games and current cross-gen games) already run on hardware with 8GB of RAM, though.
They run on hardware with 12GB of RAM. This is 4k hardware, like the pro consoles. DLSS might be more efficient in terms of GPU power, and be higher quality, but you still need RAM for those higher res assets.
 
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I don't think they're likely to be designing this with the goal of enabling ports of native PS5/XSX games that push those consoles to the limit as a priority.
I think they are, in the sense that (nearly) the only reason games don't come is due to politics rather than outright performance.
 
My six predictions.

1. Nintendo shadow drops a special thank you video on Christmas day.
2. Starts with Furakawa dressed as Krampus saying he hopes everyone is enjoying their new switch systems for Christmas and welcomes them all to the Nintendo family, but has something to announce.
3. A sizzle reel plays revealing the new system, game footage is solely games already released and focuses on Christmas best sellers, all of them are significantly enhanced for drake.
4. Miyamoto is up next, dressed as the grinch, asks if everyone is excited for the new Mario movie, drops a trailer for a new 3d Mario title, looks better than the movie, exclusive to drake.
5. Aonuma then appears, dressed as a dark link santa combo, drops a new trailer for TotK, looks incredible, 4k, Ray tracing, new gameplay mechanics using new control methods and an ai assistant that takes voice commands. Also announces the base switch version is cancelled.
6. All three of them stand menacingly on the screen, refuse to elaborate further, then leave.

/s
 
I don't think there's an "obsession" about storage, but it shouldn't be surprising that it keeps coming up. We have pretty good info on the CPU, GPU and RAM, but we know basically nothing about storage. That makes storage pretty much the only piece of the performance equation that's completely open to speculation, and this is a speculation thread, after all.

The other factor is that storage is an area where Nintendo actually can get close enough to allow for exactly those "Big , open world, AAA games designed around streaming ungodly amounts of assets through Direct Storage or similar APIs" without breaking their power or cost budget. The SSD of the PS5 in particular is absurdly over-specced, and even the Series X could have gotten away with a lot less than its 2.4GB/s. Considering the lower quality assets we'd expect on the new Switch model compared to these consoles, something around 1GB/s should be enough to prevent it being a significant bottleneck, and I think pretty much anyone in this thread would be happy with UFS 2.1 storage providing 1GB/s read speeds.

Here's a phone that launched two years ago for €200 with UFS 2.1 storage providing 1GB/s read speeds.

Storage like that isn't particularly expensive, or even particularly fast, to be honest. The latest UFS 4.0 based phones are hitting almost 3.5GB/s in sequential reads. We'll likely see mid-range phones switch to UFS 3.1 next year (which has actually already started, with this phone recently releasing with UFS 3.1 and almost 1.9GB/s sequential reads for €360), leaving slow, old ~1GB/s UFS 2 for the entry level of the market by the time the new Switch model releases.

Slow Switch load speeds haven't really been due to Nintendo cheaping out on storage, either. I can't find sequential read speeds for the eMMC used in early Switch models, but since at least 2019 in the Switch Lite they've been using the Samsung KLMBG2JETD-B041, which should hit around 300MB/s sequential reads (Samsung advertises 330MB/s for the 64GB variant, so the 32GB module Nintendo use probably comes in a bit lower). Nintendo multi-source components like the eMMC, but they're likely using similarly specced parts when they do so.

Switch games aren't bottlenecked by the storage itself when it comes to load times, they're typically bottlenecked by the CPU having to decompress the data. Hence why Nintendo added a boost mode which increases CPU clocks during loading, and why higher specced storage would have been pointless on the Switch. Drake isn't the TX1, though, and in particular it has a File Decompression Engine (FDE), which Nvidia seemingly designed specifically for Nintendo (it's not on Orin), and which should allow them to eliminate any CPU bottleneck when it comes to storage speeds. The fact that they went to the trouble of adding custom hardware like this is a very strong indication that Nintendo aren't going to cheap out on storage.

For external storage, as has been discussed many times, there are options. But the actual cost to Nintendo of supporting something like UFS cards or CFExpress is pretty trivial, as they use standard interfaces and should be able to be wired up directly to the SoC the same way an SD card slot can. I'm not sure about SD Express (it combines the old SD interface with NVMe, so might need an IC to interface correctly), but there are definitely options for faster external storage that cost Nintendo nearly nothing to support. Obviously availability and cost of the cards themselves to consumers is a different factor, but that's not a matter of Nintendo cheaping out.
I just want to say that I own a Playstation Vita. As long as 100 MB/s micro sd cards will be supported I don't think there are problems.

As you also said, the cpu was the bottleneck on Switch so maybe they can still support them.

Maybe not those that push em to the limit. But a port here and there past cross gen, is probably something they want.
I think that a safe, iterative Switch would make a lot of third parties include Nintendo in their multiplatform plans regardless. At worst we'd see a lot more Hogwarts Legacy/Doom Eternal situations.

You know, I kinda agree, but let me make the alternative case.

The Switch is already at a retina pixel density. Just as most people wont see the artifacts, most people won't see the improvements either. Why lower the battery life for a change that will not be seen by most people, while your most picky fans will find to be a downgrade?

It's the battery life thing that I think is the crux. You've about 7-10W to play with, total, in handheld mode. An upgrade to a 1080p screen is ~10% of that alone.




There aren't market conditions for 4 models, but there are absolutely market conditions for 3. We have 3 now for a reason. The Lite doesn't sell to price conscious gamers, it sells to handheld only gamers. The price point helps, mostly by allowing gamers to buy a second device for their kid/spouse, or for gamers who would never buy a console to justify a purchase of mobile hardware that can't make phone calls but can play Pokemon.

The v2 sells twice as many units as the Lite for a reason. As long as Nintendo is making Joy-Cons and putting LCD screens in the Lite, it also doesn't require any significant manufacturing investment or parts that Nintendo isn't going to keep around anyway. Keeping the v2 around makes sense.
"Retina" is a silly term coined by Apple for marketing purposes. The same Apple that uses 1080p+ screens on their 6.1 smartphones, while the Switch will have at least a 7 inch screen.

When you release a new generation, the previous one becomes a cash cow. If the hardware is not ridiculously cheap to make like the Playstation 2 was, it makes sense to retire it. You want the previous generation to have high margins because the late adopter won't probably buy a lot of games for it. The Lite makes sense because it's a totally different product that most likely Nintendo won't have anything to replace with.

My instinct tells me that the new system needs Tears of the Kingdom far more than the inverse, and it needs to look notably better on the new system, otherwise many won’t even bother upgrading.
100%

I think they are, in the sense that (nearly) the only reason games don't come is due to politics rather than outright performance.
The Media Create thread is leaking. That's not true. Virtuous had to change a lot of assets in Nier, The sinking city also had problems. Doom Eternal and Hogwarts Legacy got delayed despite being announced for the platform on day 1
 
The Media Create thread is leaking. That's not true. Virtuous had to change a lot of assets in Nier, The sinking city also had problems. Doom Eternal and Hogwarts Legacy got delayed despite being announced for the platform on day 1
that's not detracting from my point. there does exist a point where games can't come the system, unless you want to make the claim that Hogwarts could work on the 360
 
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Seems like a pretty big hire for Nintendo and good timing ahead of a potential Switch 2 launch mid next year. Interesting to note she specifies AAA 3P developers/publisher relationships. Anyone wanna say Nintendo doesn't care about third parties again?
 
The DLCs are tracks that had been already developed for the mobile game. While porting them to 8 is not as easy as pressing a button, I can't believe that's what the entire team has been doing for the past 3 years.
Tour launched public beta 18 months after ARMS released. It has 102 courses. They did not make all 102 courses in 18 months, they've been making them as they go. It took 4 years to make 48 courses for MK8, you think it's unbelievable that in 5 years since ARMS they've only made 102?
 


Seems like a pretty big hire for Nintendo and good timing ahead of a potential Switch 2 launch mid next year. Interesting to note she specifies AAA 3P developers/publisher relationships. Anyone wanna say Nintendo doesn't care about third parties again?

That tweet is the reason I added my fifth point:

"5. Nintendo of America in particular wants every PS4 AAA game on the console and pushes their partners to port everything relevant in the early years of the platform"

I don't know how many contacts she has in the industry personally, but if you want third party games there's no better place to poach people from than Playstation.

Tour launched public beta 18 months after ARMS released. It has 102 courses. They did not make all 102 courses in 18 months, they've been making them as they go. It took 4 years to make 48 courses for MK8, you think it's unbelievable that in 5 years since ARMS they've only made 102?
I only played the game when it came out, but I thought they just relied on Bandai Namco for asset creation. It would be incredibly sad if the whole team did nothing but update Tour since 2019
 
"Retina" is a silly term coined by Apple for marketing purposes. The same Apple that uses 1080p+ screens on their 6.1 smartphones, while the Switch will have at least a 7 inch screen.
As someone whose formal education was research on visual acuity and recognition I can assure you that while Retina is a marketing term, it isn't silly. Pixel density smaller than foveal acuity at viewing distance is a Real Thing, and if you think "people can't notice the upscaling artifacts from 720p to 1080p" you are agreeing. Rendering density on a phone where peripheral viewing doesn't matter and you're primarily reading text is very different from playing a video game.

Again, I'm saying I agree with you. But there are multiple downsides to a bigger screen, and there are limits to the upsides. It's not a slam dunk, especially when you consider the drop in battery life.
 
I only played the game when it came out, but I thought they just relied on Bandai Namco for asset creation. It would be incredibly sad it the whole team did nothing but update Tour since 2019
Bandai Namco did asset creation for MK8 as well. There isn't a gigantic team over there. EPD teams are like 10 people. When that group of people is ready to go from "brainstorming" to "let's make a game" they either hire external companies, or draw from EPD's pool of unfixed staff, who float from team to team as needed.

Basically, EPD 9 is Yabuki, and if he's supervising Tour, then he's not available to make MK10 without promoting other staff, or handing it to a different team.
 
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Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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