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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Definitely not nonsense. It's the bare minimum but what would be quite disappointing. Nintendo can go bare minimum on the amount of RAM for OS again, but that would again mean a subpar OS with limited features. I think its time we get at least 2 GB of RAM dedicated to the OS. 12GB would be perfect for it. 2-3 for OS and 10-11 for games. Especially higher resolution textures for 1440p or above (which they can upscale with DLSS when needed) could help.
Where did you get those specs?
It's funny..I don't think Orion NX is completely out of the question, because the thermals does match what could fit in the successor. This is if we don't get Drake/T239 though.
I don't think we know where the RAM is coming from for the Orion modules, but it is lpddr5 at the max speed of 102.4 GB/s for the NX, and 204 .8 GB/s for the AGX modules. If there is anything I feel the most confident in what is all but confirmed, is the RAM speed (102.4 GB/s). Weird to see 76.8 though, when we have SD and other portables run at 88 GB/s.
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DS did drop heavily after 3DS was announced, selling 10 million fewer in the next year than the year before. Though how much was due to 3DS announcement and how much was due to DS naturally going down after peaking is up for debate.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
For argument sake, let's assume there would be no decline at all if they had hold 3DS announcement to 2011.
Their holiday quarter went from 11.65 mi in 2009 to 9.01 mi in 2010, a 22% decline or 2.64 mi units in absolute units. Do you think this is a massive drop and that Nintendo would never risk doing it again?
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Dekuman
Starman
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I know you're keeping most options open and not intending to put words into your mouth, but reading your post, by process of elimination, the most plentiful part is actually two 8GB 64-bit modules due to their wide use in phones (which usually come with a single 8GB module) Seems like 16GB may be likelier than i initially anticipated
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I know I'd want to have a very good reason to trade 2 million sales for letting people know about a new product earlier. If it's in production and being leaked to hell, maybe that would be a good reason.
the kicker would be costs. is there a surplus of 8GB chips that would make it cost effect or are said chips made to order, leaving a lack of supply?
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If apple does use the 6GB 64-bit for their flagship phones, I’d think it’s the likeliest scenario for Nintendo to adopt for their platform.
Apple’s phones would be very long lived so they’d do the biggest heavy lifting on availability of this module.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Not implying anything here, but just noting that it's interesting how Orion NX and AGX modules have multiples of 8GB of RAM.
8GB and 16 GB for NX modules and 32 and 64 GB for AGX modules.
This doesn't deconfirm 12GB by any means, especially when Drake is already custom and has hybrid features of the lowest AGX and highest NX models (amount of cuda cores closer to 32 GB AGX, but RAM/128 bus width and likely *amount of CPU cores equivalent to *NX modules).
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these are development systems, after all. the Drake dev kit using 8GB chips wouldn't be out of the questionNot implying anything here, but just noting that it's interesting how Orion NX and AGX modules have multiples of 8GB of RAM.
8GB and 16 GB for NX modules and 32 and 64 GB for AGX modules.
This doesn't deconfirm 12GB by any means, especially when Drake is already custom and has hybrid features of the lowest AGX and highest NX models (amount of cuda cores closer to 32 GB AGX, but RAM/128 bus width and likely CPU cores equivalent to AGX modules).
OP
OP
LPDDR5X actually has a max I/O rate of 8533 MT/s.
I don't know how 76.8 GB/s and 102 GB/s are derived from 6400 MT/s and 8500 MT/s respectively.
6400 MT/s converts to 51.2 GB/s for a memory bus width of 64-bit, or 102.4 GB/s for a memory bus width of 128-bit.
8500 MT/s converts to 68 GB/s for a memory bus width of 64-bit, or 126 GB/s for a memory bus width of 128-bit. (8533 MT/s converts to 68.264 GB/s for a memory bus width of 64-bit, or 136.528 GB/s for a memory bus width of 128-bit.)
LPDDR5 can also have an I/O rate of 5500 MT/s, which converts to 44 GB/s for a memory bus width of 64-bit, or 88 GB/s for a memory bus width of 128-bit.
Yeah, especially if there's truth to the rumour about the devkits having 16 GB of RAM.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Of course they wouldn't do it for no reason.
After the Wii U and 3DS, I'm fairly sure they will put their best effort to make Drake sell as much as the Switch rather than maximize Switch final sales.
Controlling the narrative around the console is very important for this, which is why they started doing Directs and work so hard against leaks. IF (big if) they decide to mass produce it next quarter would be the best timing, preventing a leak hell would be a good reason as you point out.
Another reason is that the people holding their purchases will get a device with longer software support, giving them more revenue in long term, while having a good stock for people who don't have a Switch and wouldn't be an early adopter anyway, for example parents looking for a XMas gift. Specially so if they face shortages and can't meet holiday demands.
That's not to say I'm advocating when it's the best time to produce, announce or release Drake, that's their decision and could be very different of what I would think it's better. I just find it very shortsighted when those 2 millions (at best) are treated as the priority over the next console initial sucess and momentum. It's as if Drake is guaranteed to sell really well, when growing after a huge success has been the exception not the norm in the industry and last time they were overconfident on the existing success we got the Wii U and 3DS.
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NineTailSage
Bob-omb
Yes you are right my math's were definitely off on that, a problem with posting right after work...
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
My math was definitely off I edited my post, thanks!
OP
OP
Depends on how customised Drake is compared to Orin since Drake's a customised variant of Orin (here and here), I think. Orin only has support for a LPDDR5 controller. And considering LPDDR4X is not backwards compatible with LPDDR4, there's a possibility Nintendo and Nvidia need to have Drake support a LPDDR5X controller in order for LPDDR5X to be used.
And Micron's and Samsung's LPDDR5X modules released so far only have a max I/O rate of 7500 MT/s, so 120 GB/s for a memory bus width of 128-bit.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
My understanding is that NX is a binned AGX, yes? This is a tangent from the memory discussion, but I think the hardware is otherwise identical except for what is fused off.
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Fair point.
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I’ve addressed this point about announcement-to-release timing before, but I guess I’ll repeat myself. Each presidential era seems to take a different tactic with announcements, with each era seeing the time between announcement and release seeming to shrink. Yamauchi liked announcing the arrival of new hardware multiple years in advance, Iwata primarily stuck with 1 year between announcement and release (with Switch’s existence, albeit without much detail, being an exception due to external factors like the mobile development partnership announcement), while Kimishima/Furukawa seemed/seem to generally prefer the “cone of silence” until within 6 months of release and said as little as humanly possible about Switch after Iwata’s passing (despite repeated hounding by the press) until revealing the actual hardware in October and launching in March. So with that in mind, whenever the reveal happens, I think we’re likely 6 months out from release at most. Which would mean an announcement between now and November would mean a late March-May release. If we’re waiting til the 2023 holiday season for a release, announcement should be expected in March or April.
We also know that such an announcement date does not coincide with corporate planning, as “NX” had a release window of March 2017 as early as April 2016, announced to explain the forecasting target for the upcoming fiscal year that Switch would have nearly a full month of sales within. So any release decision seems to be planned at least 1 year in advance (which runs counter to the idea that they have a ton of flexibility in launch timing that they can release it right when sales decline or right when the chip shortages end, but that’s another discussion entirely). That also means a release within the current fiscal year is highly unlikely, if only because new hardware is clearly not in the current forecast and Nintendo has explicitly said as much, more likely April or June at the earliest. However, given the huge persistent R&D cost increases over the past 2-3 fiscal years, it seems unlikely that we will be waiting to 2024 for new hardware, either.
Nintendo is a public company with forecasts to meet and they “risked” their Q3 holiday season revenue, their biggest time for revenue generation, of which 3DS was the only viable source, to announce a new hardware product when they, according to some, could have waited until after the biggest shopping season of the year. And they were no worse for wear doing it as they did. That they did it, with the risk of having to explain the decision away to investors and a possible significant dip in share price from a worse-performing Q3 that year (which is no small amount to lose, all things considered), indicates to me that they saw no risk to their projected revenue, not that they had little to lose to begin with. And they were right, 3DS exceeded projections and caused a FY forecast adjustment based on sales that holiday season being higher than originally anticipated.
Allegedly trade. There’s no guarantee they’d lose sales at the announcement of new hardware, despite expectations that it will/would.
Yeah, even if we take a sales reduction as de facto truth, there’s an over-estimation of how severe that might be and that current or short term revenue is inviolable, even at the expense of long term prospects that will inevitably demand a new hardware cycle that should be teed up for success as much as humanly possible.
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I do like that @RennanNT pointed out the difficulty of following up a majorly successful console. Only one time in history has a successor to a platform that sold 100M+ also been able to sell 100M+ (PS1 -> PS2). The Game Boy Advance probably would have been able to also accomplish that had its life not been cut short, but them’s the breaks. The PS3, 3DS, and Wii U all saw marked contractions from their predecessors. The Xbox 360 didn’t break the 100M barrier but I think it sold well enough to consider it an unambiguous major success for Microsoft and they weren’t able to keep that momentum up with the Xbox One. It’s hard.
If current sales patterns hold, the PS5 will probably repeat the feat of being a successor to a 100M console that also sells 100M. But historically, the odds are very much against that happening.
It’s very, very important for Nintendo’s next Switch to be an unambiguous success. They only have one platform now, they can’t afford to have the “every other generation” boom and bust cycle we saw with the GC/Wii/Wii U and (to a lesser extent) the DS/3DS.
If current sales patterns hold, the PS5 will probably repeat the feat of being a successor to a 100M console that also sells 100M. But historically, the odds are very much against that happening.
It’s very, very important for Nintendo’s next Switch to be an unambiguous success. They only have one platform now, they can’t afford to have the “every other generation” boom and bust cycle we saw with the GC/Wii/Wii U and (to a lesser extent) the DS/3DS.
YolkFolk
Tingle
This hardware will be the first time we’ve seen a large leap in graphic tech from Nintendo since 2012 when we went from Wii level graphics to PS360 level with the Wii U. The Switch was a step up from the Wii U no doubt but no where near enough for it to be PS4 level.
Honestly, the idea of playing Nintendo games with PS4 (Pro?) level graphics is amazing to me. I’ve not got a PS5 yet but whenever I boot up my Pro I still to this day think ‘damn, those graphics look great’. I can only be excited about the future possibilities.
I can’t help but feel happy that games like Breath of the Wild 2 and Metroid Prime 4 are going to benefit from this new technology as well. They’re going to look so damn nice on this thing with the increased resolutions and smooth frame rates, and maybe with some extra bells and whistles too.
Honestly, this is the most I’ve been excited about a new console for a long long time.
Honestly, the idea of playing Nintendo games with PS4 (Pro?) level graphics is amazing to me. I’ve not got a PS5 yet but whenever I boot up my Pro I still to this day think ‘damn, those graphics look great’. I can only be excited about the future possibilities.
I can’t help but feel happy that games like Breath of the Wild 2 and Metroid Prime 4 are going to benefit from this new technology as well. They’re going to look so damn nice on this thing with the increased resolutions and smooth frame rates, and maybe with some extra bells and whistles too.
Honestly, this is the most I’ve been excited about a new console for a long long time.
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Eclissi
Moblin
Yes, and I think that the Nintendo tipical style (under the uncanny Valley limit) will can show wonderful things.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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As @ReddDreadtheLead mentioned, if Apple are using 6GB 64 bit modules, then it pretty much guarantees they'll be manufactured for a long time. The iPhone 14 Pro is in an unusual position, as the iPhone 14 is using the older A15 SoC with LPDDR4X RAM, so it's possible that the A16 itself won't stick around for that long. However the A17 SoC for the next iPhones is virtually guaranteed to also use a 64 bit LPDDR5 memory interface, and I'd bet good money that the base iPhone 15 will use a 6GB LPDDR5 config as well. Apple tend to keep selling their older phones for 3 years (they just discontinued the iPhone 11), which means Apple would need 6GB modules at least through 2026. There's also the possibility that it's used in an iPad or other device which could stick around for even longer.
I'm sure 8GB modules will also continue to be plentiful for the next couple of years, but if Apple are using 6GB modules they'll definitely be in ample supply, and of course should be cheaper than 8GB. I also don't think they really need 16GB. Of course more RAM is always better, but with Series S at 10GB, they put themselves at a much better position than the original Switch with regards to third party ports. I'd actually prefer them to spend that budget on a faster storage solution (ie >1GB/s including hardware decompression) as it's likely to make a much bigger difference than RAM quantity with third party ports, as developers start building engines around an expectation of very fast asset streaming.
It isn't that hard, just the concept of people getting lazy or arrogant after a big success is enough to allow others to claw their way in. The reality is that had Sony not gone full on psycho launching the PS3 they would have whooped MS again just like they did with the PS4. MS committed market suicide by nuking all their in house development while launching a game console that focused on watching TV while having predatory DRM, a useless Kinect, higher cost and weaker power. Sony has become pretty conservative in how it handles itself which is why they continually maintain their position over MS, requiring MS to go spend 100 billion dollars just so they can create a rival portfolio. In essence, once these companies lose track that they are making game consoles and instead try to turn that into something else is usually when they get a reality check.
For Nintendo, they never once lost a battle in the portable space and they never really deviated from what the market wanted in that space, just added and innovated while keeping true to the market and that works out just fine, the GB, GBC, GBA, DS, 3DS and Switch have all been definitive winners in the handheld space because the leaps always made sense, with the 3DS being the most shakey one they ever did, which they quickly corrected. Nintendo has been drunk stumbling into the home console side ever since the NES faded out and have only managed to catch the wind here and there since, which is kind of proof that when a company sticks the landing and keeps it going it's hard to ever topple them, which would be Sony in this instance. Brand loyalty only goes so far and Sony only ever really screwed up in the PS3 space but even then they still managed to outsell the 360 and immediately retook their definive position. It will be curious to see how the future goes if all of these MS acquisitions end up being exclusives though.
KeijiKG
Moblin
Saying offhand, I don't know what the final amount of RAM is but I will say that a Mario game could sure do a lot pretty things with 10GB of work RAM (assuming 2GB or 1.5GB is allocated to the Horizon OS) and RTX-level graphics -- on Nintendo's terms, not some "hire me" reel running on UE5. Ever since Galaxy on the Wii, things like the Honey Queen's fuzz showed good fundamentals and Odyssey on the Wii was already visually impressive, the least I expect is something on those lines with more draw distance.
On a similar note, a Zelda game made from the ground up on the device could probably flex lighting and/or texture effects. I kind of have a feeling Miyamoto and Aonuma want to blur more 2D and 3D lines between Zelda titles knowing how well received BoTW was and as far as pushing tech on a Zelda game goes, those seem to be their favorite horses to bet on.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
It's not about winning in their space or being profitable though, it's about growth. While Nintendo would do fine if next system sells as much as the 3DS, as with any company, they want growth and they absolutely don't want a decline.
Their target is almost certainly the next system to grow from the Switch and the next next grow even more.
Of course, they could aim to grow with more profit per console unit (hw+sw), which is how PS4 and Switch made more money than PS2 and DS, but the more the user base shrinks the harder it will be to grow that way.
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Empirically, it is!
Please don’t use ablest terms like “gone full on psycho” to describe a multinational corporation’s marketing strategy.
I’m not saying that some other portable console is going to come out and beat Nintendo in sales. It doesn’t matter if that happens or not; going from selling 120M consoles in six years to selling 80M in six years would represent a significant contraction of Nintendo’s business, even if they’re still number one in portable consoles.
They may have “quickly corrected” their initial 3DS decisions but the console still only ended up selling about half as much as its predecessor, with especially serious declines outside of Japan. That’s not really a win, even if they “won” compared to the PS Vita.
The drop from the DS to the 3DS is easily explained due to the market conditions at the time. Phone games basically came and ate the lunch of what was the expanded demographic the system enjoyed, if you compare it to any previous Nintendo portable it's very much in line with them despite the start it had. Nintendo essentially invented the dedicated portable market and has managed to maintain their position almost entirely solid much like Windows has never been unseated. If Microsoft went and drastically altered windows to a point no one knew how to program for it or use it, you'd see them lose a ton of market share. Familiarity and brand power matter but everyone has a breaking point.
The iPhone is another good example of a device that has never really been stunted, with really the biggest mistake they made being that they tied themselves to ATT for so long that another competitor was able to be viable on other networks long enough that people wouldn't all want to move over without very strong reason. I wanted an iPhone but not ATT and by the time they came to my network I had already been using an Android for years and have never seen a reason to bail, but had I started with an iPhone I likely would have stuck to that too.
I think in general people want to stick to brands and things they trust and can rely on, but a drastic pivot that disrupts them may make them look elsewhere. Had Sony just done the norm and released a high powered console at 400 bucks they likely would have still been the top selling console that generation, it takes critical screw ups to usually lose your dominant position.
All Nintendo has to do is launch a system that does nothing worse than the original while improving on things a lot and ensuring full BC and account transferring, and that will likely secure a safe 100+ million selling device as long as they don't share direct competition with a disruptive rival. At those points, it's important that you can then innovate and pivot so that your stable base doesn't hit the temptation threshold to bail out, and the more rooted people become in an ecosystem the less likely they will be to leave it, many people don't want to lose their account, friends list, old games and so forth just because, you usually have to push them off which is exactly what happened with me from the 360 to the PS4, and now I mostly use PS5 and not a series X.
Pivoting and innovating is a difficult thing to do, but taking the safe and conservative route is not and usually is a winning strategy if you're already on top. Sony hasn't really adapted much from when they started to where they are today, mostly just catching up to MS from an online standpoint, but otherwise their course has been almost the same every single time. At this point neither Sony or MS are really disrupting anything to the point they are almost following the same script, so Nintendo just has to not drop the ball and keep doing what they are doing well.
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They aren't even trying to be convincing here. Nintendo doesn't go to TGS and hasn't for almost 2 decades. The laws of thermodynamics prevent this from being as strong as the Series S. This isn't even a good fake
Since you brought up the Honey Queen, this is the perfect thing new hardware is for. Mesh shaders can draw procedural hair and grass as polygons rather than textures. And without a significant drop in performance
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
I see the words 'According to Nate'
Can someone fill me in or is this obvious nonsense?
not to mention if new baidu stuff had appeared it would probably be posted here before it found its way via a Japanese forum
Depends what 'execution performance' translates as, maybe. I'm not sure matching theoretical compute performance would be impossible on N4 for 20 watts or so. But we'll have to see if Nintendo is pushing for something that advanced or not.
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But where are the original source?
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
To be fair it says "execution performance comparable to XSS". The reTweet is exercising creative license as comparable != "same power than (sic)". We've discussed plenty in this thread how Drake could achieve IQ in the ballpark of Series S without matching raw power, especially for cross-gen games.
Not that I believe this, anyway. Seems to be pulling together information and speculation from various places (including this thread, Fami -> Twitter -> Fami lol) to make it sound plausible buuut it's already been said that Nintendo doesn't really have a presence at TGS, more likely they'll do their own Twitter reveal.
Not that I believe this, anyway. Seems to be pulling together information and speculation from various places (including this thread, Fami -> Twitter -> Fami lol) to make it sound plausible buuut it's already been said that Nintendo doesn't really have a presence at TGS, more likely they'll do their own Twitter reveal.
Hajeman
Handheld
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Gotdatmoneyy
Boo
Lol come on now.
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He never said this
People are reading this here and posting the wrong information that other people speculate or post, and it’s being put as if Nate said it when that isn’t what happened.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
Nate only mentioned a possible Direct announcement next Monday. Not related to hardware.
Nvidia would have to push for that, but TSMC N4 isn't ready for anyone but Apple right now. not to mention it would be too expensive
even if there's a "perceptible equivalence" in visual quality, that's playing things really loosey goosey. it's not just raw gpu specs but things like memory bandwidth holding things back as well
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
In what sense is a clock speed of 1.3Ghz for the GPU in docked mode completely beyond the laws of thermodynamics? Not talking about the credibility of the leak here, but if it really is on 5nm it seems within the realm of possibility with a sub 30W power draw. It also happens to perfectly match the ratio between handheld and docked mode with handheld being "a handheld PS4".
It pushes everything into the realm of "extreme optimism" but it doesn't seem to break the laws of physics? Please, genuinely, correct me if I am wrong here.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
This is me. I am the source. I am not joking.
I followed the links in the screenshots, ran some google translation, and found a table of leaked "Drake" specs, which matches my speculated table of specs from last week. It adds a few little bits of data (a row saying "ray tracing" with "High" as the value), but the other values are identical. It includes my random assumptions (that handheld Drake clocks would match TX1 docked clocks) but also my dumb mistakes, like where I scaled CPU clocks instead of leaving them stable across modes (necessary if you want your game logic to run the same in both modes).
This is a mashup of stuff we've either discovered on this thread or our random speculation to make things look "technical". This is the snake eating it's own tail till it reaches its eyeballs
despite all the added parts, there's just a lot more power flowing through the SoC of the Series S than I would assume Drake would have. if you told me that Drake would be equivalent, I'd be asking how and through what cuts to make up for that drop in power
Anatole
Octorok
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ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I did get a strange sense of familiarity reading that twitter post.
4 TFLOPS is possible if the chip is 5nm, current ampere laptops run at 1.55 ghz and are fine, just hot. I think the jump from Samsung 8nm to TSMC 5nm would be enough to facilitate it given a more aggressive cooling solution.
Doesn't make it probable though, doubt Nintendo would allow the switch to get noisier and hotter. Even if its only slightly hotter and noisier.
4 TFLOPS is possible if the chip is 5nm, current ampere laptops run at 1.55 ghz and are fine, just hot. I think the jump from Samsung 8nm to TSMC 5nm would be enough to facilitate it given a more aggressive cooling solution.
Doesn't make it probable though, doubt Nintendo would allow the switch to get noisier and hotter. Even if its only slightly hotter and noisier.
OP
OP
FamiBoards → Internet → FamiBoards
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Can’t wait for the YouTube videos about this
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Ah, yes that makes sense. I was thinking narrowly in FLOPS
But where is the source of the "leaked" specs?
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