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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Hermii said:
OG switch 196 gflops mode was literally a last minute addition, created mainly for botw. So I think the originals 150 gflops mode is around where they would like to be.
Click to expand...
Yeah I found the power Gap between docked and undocked to be unsatisfactory even on games using the standard portable mode profile. Given the X1 was likely presented to Nintendo as a mostly done design they really only had clocks to play around with.

With the new device the existing discussion around turning off SMs and perhaps disabling dlss could allow for docked more to scale up much better while preserving battery life when portable
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Here’s a thought: we have the Nvidia leak that we have been using for the past couple of months, what we have been using to extrapolate from to base our assumptions right?

What if, despite the information being correct, our interpretation of said information was incorrect and it isn’t quite what we are envisioning?


With that thought presented, what would be the most likely config you’d be comfortable with?
Click to expand...
So, my current interpretation/understanding is that the API looks for 12 active SMs. Ergo, the physical die is at least 12 SMs.

If that understanding is wrong, then it's the other way around; the die is what's 12 SMs large. Then maybe I'd be thinking of 10 functioning SMs with 2 to eat defects baked in. Pre-hack, I was thinking 6 or 8 SMs, but post-hack, with that sort of die size, fusing off so many SMs to get down to 6/8 seems pretty silly.

Clocks would have to be adjusted, but ultimately, my power targets probably won't change. In my head, I'd probably still try to configure CPU+RAM+GPU+actively reading from storage at 25 Celsius to hit... ~9 watts or less when portable, 14-17 watts when docked. IIRC, those targets are higher than even OG Switch, but what can I say, power draw inflation from RAM's annoying.
 
Look over there said:
So, my current interpretation/understanding is that the API looks for 12 active SMs. Ergo, the physical die is at least 12 SMs.

If that understanding is wrong, then it's the other way around; the die is what's 12 SMs large. Then maybe I'd be thinking of 10 functioning SMs with 2 to eat defects baked in. Pre-hack, I was thinking 6 or 8 SMs, but post-hack, with that sort of die size, fusing off so many SMs to get down to 6/8 seems pretty silly.

Clocks would have to be adjusted, but ultimately, my power targets probably won't change. In my head, I'd probably still try to configure CPU+RAM+GPU+actively reading from storage at 25 Celsius to hit... ~9 watts or less when portable, 14-17 watts when docked. IIRC, those targets are higher than even OG Switch, but what can I say, power draw inflation from RAM's annoying.
Click to expand...
Do you think they could boost the power draw docked significantly to achieve a bigger delta between handheld performance and docked performance to enable the jump from 720p to 4K?

With a more powerful and cleverly engineered cooling solution could they go up to 30w docked? Maybe 35w?
 
Dekuman said:
Yeah I found the power Gap between docked and undocked to be unsatisfactory even on games using the standard portable mode profile. Given the X1 was likely presented to Nintendo as a mostly done design they really only had clocks to play around with.

With the new device the existing discussion around turning off SMs and perhaps disabling dlss could allow for docked more to scale up much better while preserving battery life when portable
Click to expand...
All the data we have on DLSS points to it actually reducing power consumption significantly compared to native rendering.
 
Hermii said:
OG switch 196 gflops mode was literally a last minute addition, created mainly for botw. So I think the originals 150 gflops mode is around where they would like to be.
Click to expand...
BotW turned out to be using a mode at 60% of docked that a lot of first party games use. 3rd party games typically use the 50% mode.
 
0
ShaunSwitch said:
Do you think they could boost the power draw docked significantly to achieve a bigger delta between handheld performance and docked performance to enable the jump from 720p to 4K?

With a more powerful and cleverly engineered cooling solution could they go up to 30w docked? Maybe 35w?
Click to expand...
I can't say that it's impossible, but I think that the restraint there would be whether or not the accompanying noise level would be considered acceptable by whoever's in charge. And I'm not qualified to determine that. Maybe Crusters can weigh in on expected noise levels that would go along with adequately cooling a docked Switch at 20/25/30/35 watts?
 
Raccoon said:
they better call it the Switch 2 then
Click to expand...
They’d likely target something like the Switch Lite battery life. Or close to it. So at minimum of 3H. Maybe 3.5H min.

And Nintendo has lowered battery life before with a midget refresh like the DSi, so I wouldn’t rule out that it means it’s a 2 because of that.

For reference, OG 3DS was 3-5H. N3DS was 3.5-6H. 3DSXL was 3.5-5.5H. N3DSXL was 3.5-7H.

OG DS was 10H
DSLite was 15-19H at lowest brightness and 5-8H at highest brightness.


DSi was 3-4H at highest brightness and 9-14H at the lowest.
DSiXL was 4-5H at highest brightness and 13-17H at lowest brightness.



Hermii said:
OG switch 196 gflops mode was literally a last minute addition, created mainly for botw. So I think the originals 150 gflops mode is around where they would like to be.
Click to expand...
Was that actually last minute
ShaunSwitch said:
This is an interesting question. With what we know from the leak though, how the chip is specified with its core counts specifically there is only one scenario I can forsee where this could be misunderstood, and that's Thraktors assessment in having GPU cores disabled in handheld mode, I do have issues with this also which I will explain. I'm focusing on GPU here as its the only real known quantity.

So let's say we do have an 8nm chip, using original switch handheld clocks but having only 6sm active in handheld mode. That gives us 768*307*2 = 471 gflops handheld. Then in docked we have the full 12 sm at 768mhz which gives us 768 * 1536 * 2 = 2.359 tflops. A difference of around 5 between handheld and docked. I think the difference between processing in 720p and 4k is around 9 times the power, so throw in DLSS and this may be enough to give us an enhanced 4k switch experience. Would be a huge upgrade still and still the same product we have been following ultimately. So IMO this doesn't change much for me.

The problem I have around this is purely a technical one. The Orin chipset that have different operating profiles that disable cores, DLA etc require a hardware reboot to change profiles as far as I know. Much like using a MUX switch on a laptop to disable the on board GPU. With how software will be coded to use as many cores as available on the GPU I don't think there's an easy solution for the whole moving from docked to handheld seamlessly. Logic could be running on 12sm and then suddenly there's only 6sm available? That is the only bit I can't square, nvidia has some of the best engineers in the world so I am sure they could solve it, but there comes a point where the cost of doing so becomes prohibitive compared to other solutions.

Speaking of which, the proposal of an advanced node for Drake, enabling a 12sm chip to run all cores in handheld also poses another problem but its not the chip shortage, or because Nintendo, its that delta between handheld and docked.

This however is a much easier problem to solve. Let's use base handheld clocks again as a starting point, even though its likely the floor for clock speed where th chip is most efficient will raise. We will use all 12 sm so it's 307 * 2 * 1536 = 943 gflops in handheld. So how do we get that difference of 5 to push 720p fidelity at almost 1tflop up to 4k? We throw more power and cooling at it.

My laptop has a 8nm RTX 3070 at 140w which boosts up to 1720mhz and runs around 1300mhz normally. Now the laptop has more room for cooling and the cooling is very well engineered so I'm not saying you can get a 1720mhz 8nm GPU in the switch form factor. Could we get a 12sm 1500mhz GPU into the switch form factor if it's built on TSMC 5nm? I think with a very well engineered cooling solution and obviously more power for the unit in docked, its possible.

So 1536 * 2 * 1500 = 4.6 TFLOPS docked.

Do I think this specific setup is likely? No. Possible? Yes.

There are chip bin rates etc to consider as well, but overall I think the easier problem to solve is the second problem, rather than throwing however many man years of engineer time at solving the engineering problem of disabling GPU SM during gameplay.

So yeah, I think what the leak says is what we get. I'm about 35/65 on cores being disabled / bigger delta between handheld and docked. Ultimately in power I think we get something in between the two, maybe something made on TSMC 6NM with more reserved docked clocks putting us at 3 TFLOPS docked or there abouts. Maybe it is 8nm and they just run it at 1-1.2ghz in docked.

Either way, we get the same product in my eyes, a switch that runs at 4k in docked mode. The fidelity may change but the product concept is the same.
Click to expand...
This is an interesting post, it’s sort of highlights an issue that I feel like would have them present if there was GPU disabling between the modes, either A) games are not coded that well to the switch to and they are more loosely coded thus it leaves some levels of performance on the table, Or B) Drake will have a hypervisor that manages the games in the same way that Xbox manages its games and swaps. However with Xbox it is the whole system and it is that one config, it does not switch between two configurations. And looking at tegra ORIN, it probably wouldn’t be able to reasonably do 6SM‘s at a comfortable way in portable more without drawing too much power as it is already so I’m not really sure if they’d disable 6, because 6 might still be a bit much.

I’d guess that 4SMs would probably be more of a sweet consumption spot.
Raccoon said:
well shit

two and a half hour battery is a tough sell. I'm not sure if it would be worth it
Click to expand...
Well, not really that low. I think Joshua is referring to a step back from the V2, not that it’ll target to be so bad it’s V1. Like it’s not safe to assume it’ll 100% be guaranteed to have 4.5H min and a 9H battery at the highest.

Probably in between the Lite and the V2 if I were to guess.

But better than V1.
Look over there said:
So, my current interpretation/understanding is that the API looks for 12 active SMs. Ergo, the physical die is at least 12 SMs.

If that understanding is wrong, then it's the other way around; the die is what's 12 SMs large. Then maybe I'd be thinking of 10 functioning SMs with 2 to eat defects baked in. Pre-hack, I was thinking 6 or 8 SMs, but post-hack, with that sort of die size, fusing off so many SMs to get down to 6/8 seems pretty silly.

Clocks would have to be adjusted, but ultimately, my power targets probably won't change. In my head, I'd probably still try to configure CPU+RAM+GPU+actively reading from storage at 25 Celsius to hit... ~9 watts or less when portable, 14-17 watts when docked. IIRC, those targets are higher than even OG Switch, but what can I say, power draw inflation from RAM's annoying.
Click to expand...
Yeah 6-8 seems pretty reasonable here.

When you say 9W that’s just the SoC right? Not for the whole system such as the screen and joycons or fan, etc.? I think the switch draws now 7W for the whole system in portable mode.
 
Yes, when I say 9W, literally only adding together CPU/RAM/GPU/reading from internal storage. Current screen/joycons/fan/wifi/etc. not included mainly because I don't know where to even ballpark their power draw at.
Edit: for reference, OG Switch varies from 7.1 to 8.9W when undocked, depending on screen brightness. Averages 11W for itself when docked. At least in Breath of the Wild according to this.
 
Raccoon said:
well shit

two and a half hour battery is a tough sell. I'm not sure if it would be worth it
Click to expand...
if the games are there, it'll be worth it for people. especially since many folks carry a battery pack with them for extra juice

Look over there said:
Yes, when I say 9W, literally only adding together CPU/RAM/GPU/reading from internal storage. Current screen/joycons/fan/wifi/etc. not included mainly because I don't know where to even ballpark their power draw at.
Click to expand...
as an example, the steam deck in 7W mode consumes 11W total with everything on (screen, wifi, storage, etc). the OG switch topped out at about 9W for everything
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Here’s a thought: we have the Nvidia leak that we have been using for the past couple of months, what we have been using to extrapolate from to base our assumptions right?

What if, despite the information being correct, our interpretation of said information was incorrect and it isn’t quite what we are envisioning?


With that thought presented, what would be the most likely config you’d be comfortable with?
Click to expand...

ReddDreadtheLead said:
NEVER!

I want to probe people’s minds and see what they were honestly expecting in some numerical sense.


Or if they can’t give specs, a reasonable idea of what they would expect from the console as if the specs didn’t exist as we know it.
Click to expand...


What I wouldn't want is a die-shrunk Mariko at a higher clock speed to CPU+GPU and passing off the microarchitecture as new due to higher clock speeds for that alone, no change to RAM. I remember someone suggesting that would've been a smarter, money saving route ages ago (like hundreds of pages back, argument got pretty heated then) in this thread and it made me do a yucky face. Thinking like that undermines how much a different a newer architecture makes in terms of performance, especially for ARM cores. The same could be said of the whole "what if the upgrade was a GPU in the dock" suggestions because like the aforementioned, it's grossly oversimplifying Switch's areas of improvements as just a graphics thing when CPU and Memory could use some punching up.

My priority isn't whether or not 4K or Ray-Tracing are possible, I just wanna know how much draw distance and load times will be improved. As someone who loved Mario Odyssey, I'd love to see another Mario game going beyond that one in terms of how visually impressive Mario's world can be while still feeling on-brand. There's a lot a few extra million polygons and lighting+texture effects can do, seeing individual hairstrands on Mario's moustache does show Nintendo will do its earnest to push the tech they have.

If I can be a little greedy, please more than 8GB of RAM and at most 128GB of storage to start (and before you say anything, I eyeball and track the MicroSD card market a lot so of course I'll put down for the fattest amount of space I'll slave out hours for, so you're not feeding me new information by interjecting "just get a MicroSD, bro"). Anything that cuts down the possible loading problems of the Maxwell based system really, however much memory bandwidth they can push on Drake would be a godsend. Originally I did want a higher resolution screen if they were considering more LaboVR support -- there's only so much a 720p display can be cut down but that's probably not a road to pursue at the moment.

Overall the idea has to be a Switch that does more than the average Switch can and better if were backwards compatible. Of course I expect this to be a "soft" successor with timing like the SNES or Nintendo DS, so I don't expect Switch support to die the moment it launches with whatever gimmicks have to be considered part of the cost either so I'll understand where sacrifices have to be made.
 
you guys make this thing sound like a disaster sometimes lmao

why not make it an inch bigger diagonally? why not make it thicker? why not have no cartridge slot? why not go back to LCD? why not have a two hour battery life?

what's next, why not have it passively radiate heat through the controllers? anything for performance, right?
 
ILikeFeet said:
if the games are there, it'll be worth it for people. especially since many folks carry a battery pack with them for extra juice


as an example, the steam deck in 7W mode consumes 11W total with everything on (screen, wifi, storage, etc). the OG switch topped out at about 9W for everything
Click to expand...
For the Steam Deck, that 7W is in PC speak, right? My understanding is that in PC terms, the power limit that's adjustable in BIOS is CPU + iGPU, but doesn't include RAM. But I might be wrong there?
 
Raccoon said:
five hours is sort of my line

because let's be clear, the V1 battery life was a problem day one, not just by comparison
Click to expand...

If it was a problem I don’t think Switch would have been as successful as it was. I play 95% in handheld and never had a problem with it personally either. Could it have been better? Sure, but it was never an issue in my view.
 
I agree, the battery wasn’t a big deal to me.

A bit low but I usually wasn’t miffed by it as I wasn’t going to play more than 3 hours every session anyway.
 
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Raccoon said:
anything for performance, right?
Click to expand...
duh

Why would anyone want something that intentionally performs worse when it can not perform worse

Like there’s perform worse with a good reason, the switch undocked for example, and then there’s perform worse for no reason: imagine the switch not raising the ram frequency when docked.

When it can raise that.
 
Raccoon said:
you guys make this thing sound like a disaster sometimes lmao

why not make it an inch bigger diagonally? why not make it thicker? why not have no cartridge slot? why not go back to LCD? why not have a two hour battery life?

what's next, why not have it passively radiate heat through the controllers? anything for performance, right?
Click to expand...
I want it to shoot lasers into your brain that force you to buy more amiibos
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
duh

Why would anyone want something that intentionally performs worse when it can not perform worse

Like there’s perform worse with a good reason, the switch undocked for example, and then there’s perform worse for no reason: imagine the switch not raising the ram frequency when docked.

When it can raise that.
Click to expand...
it would run best if it was three feet long and ran for half an hour

there are design decisions that demand sacrifices, and battery life ought to be one of them
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Here’s a thought: we have the Nvidia leak that we have been using for the past couple of months, what we have been using to extrapolate from to base our assumptions right?

What if, despite the information being correct, our interpretation of said information was incorrect and it isn’t quite what we are envisioning

With that thought presented, what would be the most likely config you’d be comfortable with?
Click to expand...
I have a scenario for this. It's the "NVN2 is because Switch 2. The incoming Pro is not Drake" scenario.

And for that I go back to the place I was comfortable with in the very early days of Switch Pro talk, well before the 2020/2021 leaks started - a device that runs at OC X1 speeds + DLSS for exclusives . Knowing what I know now, this seems a pretty unlikely spec, due to Maxwell not supporting DLSS.

I would happily pay someone else 50 bucks to overclock my OLED model. If Nintendo wants to do that for me, and provide a no-hassle user interface for getting all my games to run the right settings, and in a handsome, unique color scheme, without breaking my warranty? I'll be well pleased while I wait 2 years for that next device to come out.
 
0
Thugstas said:
Pb is the switch lifespan… if they want to sell it as new hardware … they will start at 0. But if they want it as a switch family , they will call it switch … xxx model or something like that
Click to expand...
One of the many reasons I don’t think Nintendo will call it Switch 2 is because they want the “best selling console ever” title. If they go with “Switch 4K” and price drop the other modes to

Lite - $199
Red Box - $249
OLED - $299
4K - $399

Then they have a real shot at 160+ million for the Switch family. There is NO RUSH to leave this momentous hit and huge install base behind. Switch 4K will essentially be Switch 2 to those that care enough to even know what a generation is (90% of customers don’t).
 
Polygon said:
One of the many reasons I don’t think Nintendo will call it Switch 2 is because they want the “best selling console ever” title. If they go with “Switch 4K” and price drop the other modes to

Lite - $199
Red Box - $249
OLED - $299
4K - $399

Then they have a real shot at 160+ million for the Switch family. There is NO RUSH to leave this momentous hit and huge install base behind. Switch 4K will essentially be Switch 2 to those that care enough to even know what a generation is (90% of customers don’t).
Click to expand...
4K could be sold at a higher price and agree with you
 
Raccoon said:
it would run best if it was three feet long and ran for half an hour
Click to expand...
That would actually be it running the worst, because it defeats the purpose of the thing.

Raccoon said:
there are design decisions that demand sacrifices, and battery life ought to be one of them
Click to expand...
Battery life is only to a point.

If it’s too short then it wouldn’t fly well because you didn’t curve it right.

If it’s long then you aren’t using the thing right and making it less than what it can be and have a less efficient design. As in, it’s less performant per watt than if it had a shorter battery life that made the most of each watt.
 
Raccoon said:
you guys make this thing sound like a disaster sometimes lmao

why not make it an inch bigger diagonally? why not make it thicker? why not have no cartridge slot? why not go back to LCD? why not have a two hour battery life?

what's next, why not have it passively radiate heat through the controllers? anything for performance, right?
Click to expand...
Jeezus Cheez and crackers, do you also micromanage people's grocery shopping too?
 
Raccoon said:
you guys make this thing sound like a disaster sometimes lmao

why not make it an inch bigger diagonally? why not make it thicker? why not have no cartridge slot? why not go back to LCD? why not have a two hour battery life?

what's next, why not have it passively radiate heat through the controllers? anything for performance, right?
Click to expand...

Slightly larger screen or thicker device are hardly a disaster. People are just working around the idea that the SoC could be larger. The rest is just speculation on what other cuts could happen, none of which would amount to being a disaster.

Steam Deck has a shorter battery life, is thicker, wider, and heavier than anybody’s expecting, has an LCD, and nobody is calling it a disaster. Expecting Nintendo to tick all the boxes on a perfect upgrade is asking for disappointment. There’s a fair chance something is going to fail to meet expectations. I’m personally expecting some change in dimensions (assuming wider because of joycons), and maybe having battery life closer to Lite or even OG.

To be frank your bar far skipping the device is pretty specific. If the original Switch had been a quarter inch wider I doubt it would have been any less of a success. Same goes for if it were a mil thicker. We’ll see where it ends up, but I’m sure it’ll be sensibly designed, and plenty great to use.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
That would actually be it running the worst, because it defeats the purpose of the thing.


Battery life is only to a point.

If it’s too short then it wouldn’t fly well because you didn’t curve it right.

If it’s long then you aren’t using the thing right and making it less than what it can be and have a less efficient design. As in, it’s less performant per watt than if it had a shorter battery life that made the most of each watt.
Click to expand...
I get what you're saying. My expectation is a device that doesn't compromise on the experience of using the OLED (the size, the display, the kickstand functionality) while being slightly more powerful. Everybody has their line for what goals a Switch model should have in form and what can be compromised, and my line is pretty high.

I want it to be closer to the OLED battery life than the original, I want it to be roughly the same size, and I want it to maintain full accessory compatibility besides cases. This is my mental standard for a revision to the Switch.

If it's a successor, in terms of having unannounced Nintendo games come exclusively to it, all of this goes out the window for me. It's the new Nintendo, and like the declining battery lives of the previous handheld generations, I'd try to judge it on its own merits.

It doesn't need said that my feelings about these sorts of compromises don't matter, and that my observations about others' feelings especially don't matter. It's just my opinion about future Nintendo hardware.
 
karmitt said:
Slightly larger screen or thicker device are hardly a disaster. People are just working around the idea that the SoC could be larger. The rest is just speculation on what other cuts could happen, none of which would amount to being a disaster.

Steam Deck has a shorter battery life, is thicker, wider, and heavier than anybody’s expecting, has an LCD, and nobody is calling it a disaster. Expecting Nintendo to tick all the boxes on a perfect upgrade is asking for disappointment. There’s a fair chance something is going to fail to meet expectations. I’m personally expecting some change in dimensions (assuming wider because of joycons), and maybe having battery life closer to Lite or even OG.

To be frank your bar far skipping the device is pretty specific. If the original Switch had been a quarter inch wider I doubt it would have been any less of a success. Same goes for if it were a mil thicker. We’ll see where it ends up, but I’m sure it’ll be sensibly designed, and plenty great to use.
Click to expand...
You make great points, and I recognize your allusions to the arbitrary nature of these sorts of complaints. For me, the Switch is already a little bigger than I'd like, but I'd concede that the battery life is overkill for me personally. In practice I think anything in the neighborhood of four hours would easily satisfy me.

My problem is that I intend to replace my OLED. I do not want a worse experience while using the device. Despite my consistent hair-splitting about sizing, the actual dealbreakers are the kickstand and especially the display. The Switch's LCD sucked on day one, and I don't think I could go back to it.
 
KeijiKG said:
It's just weird when someone is asking for the equivalent of a wishlist to Santa and you make a post judging the lists is what I'm getting at.
Click to expand...
All of those things sound, to me at least, unmistakably terrible. Given the nature of the argument though, I should have recognized that these are to many trivial details or even improvements.

I still don't get the word micromanage though. I'm not a mod, you can and should want what you want, even if it makes me want to sell all my video games and move to Alaska
 
0
Polygon said:
One of the many reasons I don’t think Nintendo will call it Switch 2 is because they want the “best selling console ever” title. If they go with “Switch 4K” and price drop the other modes to

Lite - $199
Red Box - $249
OLED - $299
4K - $399

Then they have a real shot at 160+ million for the Switch family. There is NO RUSH to leave this momentous hit and huge install base behind. Switch 4K will essentially be Switch 2 to those that care enough to even know what a generation is (90% of customers don’t).
Click to expand...
I assure you Nintendo does not give a rat's ass whether the switch is the best selling console or not. What they want is just the maximum amount of money. When they decide how to market the drake they will purely look at what will make them the most money, because they are a publicly traded company and that's what they exist to do.
 
Raccoon said:
why not make it an inch bigger diagonally? why not make it thicker? why not have no cartridge slot? why not go back to LCD? why not have a two hour battery life?
Click to expand...
Out of these I expect only the bolded to be likely.

Two hour battery life could happen in the context of a really demanding game at medium-max brightness, I guess.
 
epicmartin7 said:
Y'know, this tweet makes me think...




I wonder if Calcio will be released at some point. Maybe Nintendo's waiting for this threshold to be passed?
Click to expand...

This is another dealbreaker for me, and it has nothing to do with my unhinged industrial design demands. I have 32 physicals, all first party, and I am not buying something that doesn't play them until Pikmin 4 comes out
 
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