Derachi's Handy Compilation Post
WHAT WE KNOW:
- There is a July-long Official Splatoon Tournament being held by Nintendo, just like there was last year. Last year, it ran every week. This year, it runs every week
except for next week. They have not given a reason for this.
- Nintendo likes to use video game preview coverage to fill out weeks where there would otherwise be no news from them. This week, however, we got press previews for both Live A Live and Xenoblade Chronicles 3.
Usually both games would get their own week of coverage to themselves, but this week both games' coverage are crowded into a single week.
- They built an entire Nintendo Treehouse Live* (*I do believe that segment was pre-recorded) set just to show off Live A Live. That's not necessarily proof of anything, but getting a production crew and a set and hosts and equipment and all that isn't cheap. Usually this is done when they have multiple games to show off all at once. Live A Live certainly deserves showcasing, but
to put together an entire production just for that one game feels like either an unnecessarily huge marketing spend, or there's maybe something more going on with that Treehouse Live set.
- They sure did announce a Splatoon 3-themed OLED (that looks, frankly, extremely cool) but had
no new Splatoon 3 video content, such as a trailer or gameplay demo, ready to go alongside it.
- Nintendo did not announce or showcase any First Party software last month, where June is oftentimes THE place for them to do so. For evidence of this, please google "E3." We know they have games to talk about and show that are going to be out before the end of the year, both announced (Splatoon 3, for example) and unannounced (Metroid Prime 1 Remastered) so it is a little suspicious they had nothing to show.
- Nintendo likes to announce new Nintendo Switch Hardware in July. The Nintendo Switch Lite was revealed July 10th 2019, and the Nintendo Switch -- OLED Model was revealed July 6th 2021.
- This one is going to veer into a bit of a grey zone, as we
know this, but we
shouldn't know this, but: We know Nintendo and NVidia are working on a new piece of hardware that will be able to play games at 4K resolutions using a technology called DLSS. There are people who doubt the existence of this hardware, and while I am trying to keep this section dedicated wholly to information that we absolutely know and cannot dispute, I think it's important to point out that we have had leaks from Nvidia themselves regarding this hardware, how powerful it will be (from what I understand: pretty darn powerful) and how it's going to achieve 4K resolutions using DLSS. This more-or-less confirms that this hardware is going to happen at some point. Putting all of the information we've gotten regarding Developer Kit Distribution aside, which is up to the reader to determine whether or not they believe it, a genuine leak from NVidia themselves regarding the hardware simply cannot be ignored. What the leak does not tell us is the price, name, release date, if Nintendo will market the unit as a half-step (think PS4 to PS4 Pro) or a full generational leap (think PS4 to PS5) or, really, anything. It is purely a technology information dump. Please refer to the Future Hardware Thread for more information.
- Nintendo does not like competing videos to be available at the same time. This is common among companies that reveal products. It's a strategy to ensure that uninformed customers are not watching an older, out-of-date video instead of the most recent one. For example, when Apple has a reveal video for the iPhone 13, they will hide/delete the reveal video for the iPhone 12 to make absolutely sure no one is watching that one by mistake. Nintendo has hidden the OLED reveal video from about a year ago. This could have been, as former Nintendo of America Marketing Employee Kit Ellis suggested, due to music/actor licenses expiring a year later. Or it could have been to make sure all eyes are focused on that, again, extremely cool Splatoon 3 OLED. Or it could be something else. We simply do not know. Speaking of...
- Nintendo has
announced that Pokémon Puzzle League is coming to NSO on Friday, July 15th.
-
Japanese 7-11 is advertising the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass, with a notice to remove the advertisement on July 17th.
WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW:
- We do not know if there's anything Nintendo-related next week. We just don't. We won't know until it happens.
- We do not know if Nintendo is going to announce some new Nintendo Switch hardware next week or, frankly, at all this year.
- We do not know the name of the next hardware unit. "Switch Pro" is convenient shorthand, nothing more.
- We do not know why the Splatoon tournament is not running next week.
- We do not know why the Switch OLED reveal trailer was made hidden.
WHAT WE MIGHT KNOW:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
WHAT WE THINK:
- This section is more "data extrapolation" than anything else. Do not take anything below as fact.
- Nintendo has left next week suspiciously
wide open. No Splatoon tournament, no preview coverage drops (the next two Nintendo Published game release previews dropped this week). They really do like having SOMETHING to tell/show us every week, from press preview embargoes lifting (meaning news/coverage outlets are allowed to talk about an upcoming game) to Nintendo Switch Online updates to a new Lego Set (which also dropped today, by the way) to literally anything. But next week has been absolutely cleared. This leads us to believe they have something real big to show/tell us.
- The lack of Splatoon tournament lends credence to the idea that they are gonna show something related to Splatoon 3, as per the "no competing videos" idea mentioned earlier.
It could potentially be a Splatoon 3 Dedicated Direct. However, it's a little peculiar they wouldn't hold the Splatoon 3 OLED model reveal for that. It is also worth mentioning they have done a dedicated Splatoon Direct before both Splatoon 1 and Splatoon 2, but they were always two or three weeks before launch, not several months. There
is a theory that Splatoon 3 was originally supposed to be a July game but it was delayed/switched places with Xenoblade Chronicles 3, and maybe the potential Splatoon 3 Direct being next week is a holdover from when it was a Late July game. But again, announcing the Splatoon 3 OLED now and not waiting for next week feels a little peculiar.
- Next week
could absolutely be the reveal of a Switch Pro. Again, we're using "Switch Pro" as convenient shorthand. Yes, they just announced a Splatoon themed OLED, but that would not affect a Pro announcement. There is no way Nintendo is going to render the current Switch Family of Systems (Switch, Lite and OLED) obsolete right now, and all signs are pointing to the Pro being a premium (therefore expensive) but optional model. The OLED is not going anywhere, except potentially taking over the Regular Switch's spot as "default model." A Pro reveal next week actually makes some amount of sense in a number of different potential scenarios. Let's look at the most
optimistic scenario:
A Nintendo Direct + Hardware Showcase. Nintendo loves to showcase new Switch Hardware in July, which would explain the timing. The new hardware is, unlike the previous two revisions (Lite and OLED) going to directly affect how the games look and play. Last month, obviously, they had a Partner Showcase, but did not show off their First Party software. It would make sense that they held onto their First Party software to showcase the power/ability of this new 4K-capable unit. This would include showing new Splatoon 3 footage, which would explain the "no Splatoon 2 tournament" thing, because again, no competing videos. It would also explain why they announced the Splatoon 3 OLED unit this week but have nothing else Splatoon 3 to show: they do not want to confuse the consumer into thinking the Splatoon OLED does 4K, and they want to hold off on showing Splatoon 3 until they can officially show it in 4K. The "Hardware Showcase" would also explain them building the Treehouse Live set: If they have new Hardware to show off, they're going to want cameras/lighting/hosts/production crew to show off the actual physical unit in the literal best possible light. They just filmed the Live A Live stuff on it first, and showed it to us a little early.
- Next week could also simply be a
First Party Software Showcase with no new Hardware. They still have games to show off, like Splatoon 3, games to give dates for, like Bayonetta 3, and games to announce, like the Metroid Prime 1 Remaster that is evidently happening this year. This could also potentially include, or maybe even consist solely of, Treehouse Live segments using the set built for the Live A Live Treehouse Live showcase last month. This could also amount to a Twitter-based announcement, similar to how Paper Mario The Origami King was revealed through a tweet/YouTube upload.
- Next week could simply be an
empty week. I dunno, fam. Literally anything can happen.
