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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.
A random Chinese Twitter account could be legit. It's likely bullshit, but there is a chance that they are legit. SamusHunter on the other hand been repeatedly proved to be a fraud.
 
I make forecasts for a living.

Being right about the future is hard, but I think that industry experts tend to get things more wrong than right because they are too bogged down in the details and cannot see the forest for the trees.

I think, broadly, this is largely a human psychology problem. Most people are linear thinkers, looking at how things are today, instead of trying to look around the corner.

This is not a revolutionary call. The business cycle is always coupled with an inventory cycle. We had a record surge in demand during Covid, now we have a record surge in capacity expansion, just as demand is either normalizing or falling below the trend line. Everyone likes to believe in the occasional new normal when it suits their interest; in this case it was tech and software companies. A new normal is exceptionally rare - even e-commerce penetration is declining.

So they were too slow, and struck after the iron cooled. Now they have this record surge in expanded capacity, after the demand went away/snapped back.

Does this mean prices are going to plummet for getting in on manufacturer fab lines?
 
I don’t see Nintendo producing Switch Oled model when Drake is in full production. They will have the Red Box model, Lite and the Drake model (occupying the premium space).

So…

Premium: Drake at $429

Budget: Lite $199

Red Box Switch $299

at least 3 years later Nintendo discontinued Red Box and Lite in favor for Drake versions
What if Nintendo moved the OLED to become the base switch though? I could see this happening if the next model also has an OLED screen.
 
So they were too slow, and struck after the iron cooled. Now they have this record surge in expanded capacity, after the demand went away/snapped back.

Does this mean prices are going to plummet for getting in on manufacturer fab lines?

TBD. We are trying to figure that out.

Generally, company can/do buy components including chips either directly from some manufacturer or from a distributor. Often, manufacturers honored their prices but could not produce the requisite volumes. So buyers began competing against each other in the secondary market, and the price of various components surged due to the supply shock.

the secondary market is where you’ll definitely see a price decline. It remains to be seen at what utilization rate and what price the fabs push out product for contracted products.

What the fabs/manufacturers would likely tell you is that they wrote the contracts during the boom (2020-2021) in a way to avoid the bust. But those might not be honored, as Micron hinted at yesterday. AMD and NVDA are also trying to renegotiate terms.
 
I haven’t been following progress on chip shortages lately but wasn’t the issue more with limited supply of specific substrates in the manufacturing process? Also, with the smaller transistors that are a part of the assembly? Is that stuff still constrained or has it bounced back?
 
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You know, thinking about this.

According to TPU, PS1 had the 600nm process? I’m not sure how accurate that is though but whatever. It was 5 gens of change there.
For the CPU it was a 500nm process. In contrast, the N64 CPU was 350nm.
With respect to Nintendo, Wii U to switch just so happened to be 4 generations of difference. This was more of a coincidence though. I believe the Wii U was 40nm?
45nm for the CPU, according to Wikipedia. It might by just the GPU that's 40nm, since it was an MCM and not a SoC.
 
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TBD. We are trying to figure that out.

Generally, company can/do buy components including chips either directly from some manufacturer or from a distributor. Often, manufacturers honored their prices but could not produce the requisite volumes. So buyers began competing against each other in the secondary market, and the price of various components surged due to the supply shock.

the secondary market is where you’ll definitely see a price decline. It remains to be seen at what utilization rate and what price the fabs push out product for contracted products.

What the fabs/manufacturers would likely tell you is that they wrote the contracts during the boom (2020-2021) in a way to avoid the bust. But those might not be honored, as Micron hinted at yesterday. AMD and NVDA are also trying to renegotiate terms.
Really great insights here! It's interesting, at least in the way I'm reading it, that the contracts can simply not be honored, haha! Is this a common thing, from what you can tell?

Man this is getting exciting.

Nurse! We need a new powerl-levels run-down with the leaked specs and 20w STAT!
Agreed! I know NOTHING, and am especially curious if any of it makes any sense, haha! Which, admittedly, is hard given it's all machine translation and doesn't make sense to me one way or another!
 
If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.

Random Chinese accounts don't have track records so horrendous that carnival prediction machines are more correct than them.
 
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You know, thinking about this.

According to TPU, PS1 had the 600nm process? I’m not sure how accurate that is though but whatever. It was 5 gens of change there.


PS2 to 3 was also 8 generations of difference. From 250nm to 90nm.

From 90nm PS3 to 28nm PS4 was 5 gens of difference.

Anyway, OG XBox to 360 was from 180nm to 90nm, or 5 generations of difference.

But 360 to One was 8 generations of difference


From PS4/X1 to PS5/XS it was 28nm>7nm, so 5 gens of difference.


They were fortunate enough to get around at least 5 gens of node enhancement between whatever they are on to whatever is next. PS2 and 3 and 3 to 4 were Sony’s biggest jumps. But that won’t last anymore. Next may be 4 generational enhancements but that depends on Sony and AMD. So they would need to lean more on smart methods to get better/ more noticeable enhancements.

Likewise, MS has been able to get at least 5 gens of enhancements between one platform and another. Next may be 4 for all we know. Food for thought.




With respect to Nintendo, Wii U to switch just so happened to be 4 generations of difference. This was more of a coincidence though. I believe the Wii U was 40nm?

But GCN to Wii was only 5 gens of enhancements. And Wii to Wii U was 6 gens of enhancements.


Note: these numbers are from TPU, they may not be fully representative. Take with grains of salt.
I could also be mistaken in how I interpreted, I know some nodes (16/14) are grouped as one. Unsure which one it is also applicable here.
Since I referred to the ITRS roadmap from 2017 earlier, I'll stick with that for consistency. Also, sticking with what TPU lists for consistency. So again, grain of salt with regards to their accuracy.
PS1 to PS2: 600nm to 250nm is two generations by the roadmap (500nm would then be part of the 600nm generation).
PS2 to PS3: 250nm to 65nm is four generations.
Note made after writing the rest of this post: 65nm seemed a little fishy considering that Xbox 360 and Wii are listed at 90nm. Checking with wiki, 65nm applies for later revisions. The older models with PS2 compatibility were on 90nm. So PS2->PS3 is more like three generations, as far as original design goes.

65nm process nodes would be ~2004-2007. Here's where an important note goes:
Dennard scaling, or MOSFET scaling. Basically the observation of power consumption improvement keeping up with transistor density. That started breaking down in the mid 2000's.
Remember the clock frequency race back then? The dreams of 10 gigahertz and then how those dreams died like Icarus? Then we had the paradigm shift to multi cores? It was around that same time wasn't it...
(the straightforward interpretation: those 2/4 generations back then offered a lot more energy efficiency improvement compared to 2/4 generations now)

PS3 to PS4: 65nm to 32nm is two generations. I'm filing TSMC 28nm under the 32nm generation because their 20nm node started up after PS4's launch. While Dennard scaling has started its breakdown, we're still in the period where planar transistors are still worth squeezing. So those two generations still offer more potential what we'd see with two nowadays, IMO anyway.
Note made after writing the rest of this post: Alternatively, going from 90nm (first versions of PS3) to 32nm is three generations.

XBox to Xbox 360: Huh, TPU says 150nm? TSMC's own website doesn't mention such a node... I'm guessing a 180nm refinement, as there is a separate 130nm node. Anyway, 180nm to 90nm is two generations.
Xbox 360 to Xbox One: 90nm to 32nm is three generations.

GCN to Wii: 180nm to 90nm is two generations.
Wii to Wii U: 90nm to 45nm is two generations. 45/40 should be within the same generation.

Yaknow, there's more I can ramble on regarding possible future of consoles, but I don't have the time to put it within this post. Sometime later, I might reply to this and go stream of consciousness on the topic. Although it'd be more related to the big consoles than the Switch.
 
You guys must be aware that this 'China forum' rumblings might be organized marketing from Nintendo themselves so, don't make the jump in your head that an unveiling of new hardware is imminent.

I am saying this so that the younger ones among us don't get carried by the hype.

I am hyped!
 
Its really not that much noise.

Its just that every little thing written on the internet finds its way into the thread, with no source criticism.
I would gently push back on that - at least core contributors absolutely criticize sources. One of the reasons that we have been hiding so much stuff lately is because we know the sources are unvetted, and part of the fun here is doing the vetting. For example

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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You guys must be aware that this 'China forum' rumblings might be organized marketing from Nintendo themselves so, don't make the jump in your head that an unveiling of new hardware is imminent.

I am saying this so that the younger ones among us don't get carried by the hype.

I am hyped!
you think to highly of Nintendos marketing department.
 
Funny part is, apparently it was the 28th for many weeks. Samushunter tweeted their insider info was still valid in late May, so when they confirmed a June 15th Direct (just after the reddit leak), it must have been because their late May insider info said the Direct was June 15th. However, we know that even in late May, June 15th was not the date of the Direct, it was going to be June 28th even before late May. It’s not a mistake on their insiders’ end because the Direct was never delayed.

So there are 2 reasonable possibilities, their insider purposely gave them fake info, or they don’t have an insider. My guess is the later.

Listen, I'm gonna say this once so the whole website better listen up.

Samushunter doesn't have insider info. They don't have a contact.

They're just another person like you or me who knows where to read information from people who do have insider information.

The only difference between us and Samushunter is that Samushunter takes the public stuff they read and shares it to the twitter crowd as if it's coming from a secret insider source. This has been proven time and time and time again


We could do the exact same thing but don't because we're not that desperate for attention.
 
You guys must be aware that this 'China forum' rumblings might be organized marketing from Nintendo themselves so, don't make the jump in your head that an unveiling of new hardware is imminent.

I am saying this so that the younger ones among us don't get carried by the hype.

I am hyped!
Haha! :ROFLMAO: Nintendo's latest ninjas aren't going after leakers, but they've become false leakers themselves to throw the scent off?!?

I'm hyped too!
 
Since I referred to the ITRS roadmap from 2017 earlier, I'll stick with that for consistency. Also, sticking with what TPU lists for consistency. So again, grain of salt with regards to their accuracy.
PS1 to PS2: 600nm to 250nm is two generations by the roadmap (500nm would then be part of the 600nm generation).
PS2 to PS3: 250nm to 65nm is four generations.
Note made after writing the rest of this post: 65nm seemed a little fishy considering that Xbox 360 and Wii are listed at 90nm. Checking with wiki, 65nm applies for later revisions. The older models with PS2 compatibility were on 90nm. So PS2->PS3 is more like three generations, as far as original design goes.

65nm process nodes would be ~2004-2007. Here's where an important note goes:
Dennard scaling, or MOSFET scaling. Basically the observation of power consumption improvement keeping up with transistor density. That started breaking down in the mid 2000's.
Remember the clock frequency race back then? The dreams of 10 gigahertz and then how those dreams died like Icarus? Then we had the paradigm shift to multi cores? It was around that same time wasn't it...
(the straightforward interpretation: those 2/4 generations back then offered a lot more energy efficiency improvement compared to 2/4 generations now)

PS3 to PS4: 65nm to 32nm is two generations. I'm filing TSMC 28nm under the 32nm generation because their 20nm node started up after PS4's launch. While Dennard scaling has started its breakdown, we're still in the period where planar transistors are still worth squeezing. So those two generations still offer more potential what we'd see with two nowadays, IMO anyway.
Note made after writing the rest of this post: Alternatively, going from 90nm (first versions of PS3) to 32nm is three generations.

XBox to Xbox 360: Huh, TPU says 150nm? TSMC's own website doesn't mention such a node... I'm guessing a 180nm refinement, as there is a separate 130nm node. Anyway, 180nm to 90nm is two generations.
Xbox 360 to Xbox One: 90nm to 32nm is three generations.

GCN to Wii: 180nm to 90nm is two generations.
Wii to Wii U: 90nm to 45nm is two generations. 45/40 should be within the same generation.

Yaknow, there's more I can ramble on regarding possible future of consoles, but I don't have the time to put it within this post. Sometime later, I might reply to this and go stream of consciousness on the topic. Although it'd be more related to the big consoles than the Switch.
Really, really cool and interesting!! Great breakdown!

I actually think it might be still useful, even if it may concern the other consoles. I figure, if it's like any corporations in similar fields here, that engineers across companies talk and interact, and company heads aim for somewhat similar product releases. So, it could still be pretty useful to read about! (Or, it's just me justifying my own interest in the topic to hear more, haha! :ROFLMAO:)
 
Necessity.

Anything more specific?

Beyond the physical limits of transistors, we're fighting against the intrinsic limitations of the Von Neumann architecture, which is inherently power hungry. There's some active research to unify CPU and memory, but most of it is still ways of. There's gonna be some good progress within the next 10-ish years, but those limitations coupled with a looming raw materials scarcity makes me believe that we will have a pretty long period during which evolutions will be very incremental.
 
Anything more specific?

Beyond the physical limits of transistors, we're fighting against the intrinsic limitations of the Von Neumann architecture, which is inherently power hungry. There's some active research to unify CPU and memory, but most of it is still ways of. There's gonna be some good progress within the next 10-ish years, but those limitations coupled with a looming raw materials scarcity makes me believe that we will have a pretty long period during which evolutions will be very incremental.

Basically this right here. Because there is a problem that needs to be solved to move forward.

It's very reminiscent to me of the struggles of breaking the um to nm barrier like the shmoo issues and fet sodium poisoning.

If you are asking me to link to something like quantum computing, that's not what this is about. We just have a pretty dang good track record of pushing past these obstacles that looked pretty impassable at the time. I see a problem that looks pretty impassable at this time. That's what it's about.

Depends who you are. Unfavorable contract terms are for the weak.

Ha ha, Brutal Knives.
 
What if Nintendo moved the OLED to become the base switch though? I could see this happening if the next model also has an OLED screen.
I think so too. Hopefully reduce to a $300 price point when Drake launches. Phase out Redbox switch in 1 -2 years with a cheaper price point of $250 or bundle them with a game.

Pretty crazy for switch models to be around $300 still after what will be 6 years in March 2023. If OLED continues to be priced at $350 when Drake comes out, then I expect Drake to be priced at $450 from Nintendo. ugh.

Hmm, speaking of random Chinese things...

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
This is exciting news. Hopefully Nitnendo does allow a 20 watt tolerance for docked! Would work perfectly for a 5-6nm mode.
 
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I'm starting to get curious now on why people are so adamant on determining if it's a pro or successor. Let's play out some hypotheticals:

The rumoured specs are 100% accurate. Impossible ports now made possible. Elden Ring coming to the next Switch in early 2024. Fall Guys now runs either 1440p60 or 4K30 based on performance or graphics mode option. Regardless of whether it's a pro or a successor, you are going to be inclined to purchase it (especially given we're all on a Nintendo enthusiast forum).

If Nintendo markets it as a pro, does that disappoint you? That after six years on market, it's still not an even more substantial leap than what it already is? Capable of AAA titles using modern graphical wizardry to provide you upscaled 4K content nigh imperceptible from native 4K images, taken on the go to improve IQ on the 720p screen so you more frequently experience a rock solid 30/40*/60fps game? (*In this scenario I hope the screen offers this refresh rate, just roll with it)

If Nintendo markets it as a successor, does it excite or frighten you? Yes, this beast of a machine is ready to stand toe to toe with Xbox Series and PS5 consoles. It will still receive the same games like before if it were a pro, and those same games will still likely be delayed a year or more after release like before on the other consoles (Alan Wake, Life is Strange, Elden Ring, etc.). A successor is more likely to ask for a higher price tag though, far more than a pro revision could.

Or is it, at the end of the day, a desire to simply know more than what Nintendo/Bloomberg/insiders/leakers are currently offering? Just to set your expectations that for a portable device that as of 2017 has more than a million times the RAM and harddrive of the Apollo Guidance Computer?
Speaking for myself--

I want to know if the games coming out in the next 2-4 years will be playable on the Switch I already own. If this is just a Switch Pro then many future games, with some New3DS-style exceptions, will work on the base Switch. If this is a true successor then Nintendo may move away from the old SKU and make new games for their new hardware. If they do cross-gen / iterative Apple-style compatibility then that's a different story.

I don't really care about better graphics on Nintendo games that I already think look great or impossible ports that I would prefer to play on other hardware anyway. I am happy with the current Switch and want to know how long the ride will last. Whether this is a pro or a successor is substantively important to me.
 
What if Nintendo moved the OLED to become the base switch though? I could see this happening if the next model also has an OLED screen.

I don’t see it, Nintendo will most likely use the Oled screens for Drake while leaving the Red Box Unit untouched. They would need to do R&D, test it and more if they create a new revision with just a Oled screen and that money can be put somewhere else.
 
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Basically this right here. Because there is a problem that needs to be solved to move forward.

I'm going to offer a counter argument to that, because it's internet and I of course need to.

Mankind is facing in climate change its biggest problem so far to move forward, and while its arguably already too late to avoid some of the dramatic consequences of it, we still do not have Hot Carrier Solar Cells, efficient atmospheric carbon capture or controlled Nuclear Fusion. Hence, I don't believe its a given that facing a big hurdle, we'll quickly make the necessary breakthroughs.

But I'm admittedly not too versed in computer science, and beyond the materials and architectures, there may be other aspects to leverage which I haven't considered.

Also, from my understanding, quantum computing isn't something that we should expect to become mainstream; it has great potential for some specific applications, but not necessarily those which we need on a daily basis
 
Listen, I'm gonna say this once so the whole website better listen up.

Samushunter doesn't have insider info. They don't have a contact.

They're just another person like you or me who knows where to read information from people who do have insider information.

The only difference between us and Samushunter is that Samushunter takes the public stuff they read and shares it to the twitter crowd as if it's coming from a secret insider source. This has been proven time and time and time again


We could do the exact same thing but don't because we're not that desperate for attention.
It seems like my comment didn't elicit the right tone, my mistake.

Everything you typed, goes without words. I just felt like typing a specific example where it's evident/proven they're full of it.
 
I'm going to offer a counter argument to that, because it's internet and I of course need to.

Mankind is facing in climate change its biggest problem so far to move forward, and while its arguably already too late to avoid some of the dramatic consequences of it, we still do not have Hot Carrier Solar Cells, efficient atmospheric carbon capture or controlled Nuclear Fusion. Hence, I don't believe its a given that facing a big hurdle, we'll quickly make the necessary breakthroughs.

But I'm admittedly not too versed in computer science, and beyond the materials and architectures, there may be other aspects to leverage which I haven't considered.

Ha ha, I can't disagree with that, I was pretty pessimistic on that In the socialism thread.

I was specifically talking about computer science breakthroughs though.
 
This is exciting news. Hopefully Nitnendo does allow a 20 watt tolerance for docked! Would work perfectly for a 5-6nm mode.
It does sound pretty exciting!

Not technical at all, but I was real curious about wattages and TDP, and it's interesting cause it seems like 15W is a "max" for the OG one, just never hit, and someone on a random Reddit thread said they saw others I guess "stress test" it to 17W or so. Surely they work to prevent it, as much as possible, getting THAT high! But, if they did ordinarily allow more power when docked, that may be pretty interesting indeed!

These things are neat, if for no other reason than to learn new stuff!
 
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Hmm, speaking of random Chinese things...

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

I assume he is talking about the oled designs smaller heat pipe, being the 6mm diameter flattened tube? And these new parts having a larger 8mm heat pipe tube?

Does anyone know the diameter of the original switches
heat pipe?

Ha ha if a knew this was going to be a thing I would have measured my old switches heat pipe when I replaced the fan.
 
I don't really care about better graphics on Nintendo games that I already think look great or impossible ports that I would prefer to play on other hardware anyway. I am happy with the current Switch and want to know how long the ride will last. Whether this is a pro or a successor is substantively important to me.
Nintendo has generally indicated a 7 year minimum lifetime for the Switch. You should expect that Nintendo’s output for your current Switch to roughly match the last two years of the GameCube and the Wii era. There is no serious belief that Nintendo is going to cut off support for the Switch in March.

Successor folk tend to believe that the target release date is closer to 2024 - the end of that 7 year generation. Revision folk who expect exclusives generally expect New 3DS style - a couple big games from 3rd parties that Nintendo has subsidized that wouldn’t have come to a Nintendo platform otherwise, so not games that you were deprived of because of the revision.

If you want a longer than 7 year generation for the Switch then the crystal ball is foggy with data-free speculation.

I get you being deeply invested in whether or not this device is a revision, but the discussion doesn’t have a lot farther to go. There is zero hard data about Nintendo’s marketing plan for the device, and a year of tea leaf reading has changed that. Short of an announcement or a new, BIG leak, we won’t know.

No amount of further discussion will make the answer clearer, and it won’t change the minds of the existing folks who have settled into their opinions, and it will definitely have no influence on Nintendo :(
 
Nintendo has generally indicated a 7 year minimum lifetime for the Switch. You should expect that Nintendo’s output for your current Switch to roughly match the last two years of the GameCube and the Wii era. There is no serious belief that Nintendo is going to cut off support for the Switch in March.

Successor folk tend to believe that the target release date is closer to 2024 - the end of that 7 year generation. Revision folk who expect exclusives generally expect New 3DS style - a couple big games from 3rd parties that Nintendo has subsidized that wouldn’t have come to a Nintendo platform otherwise, so not games that you were deprived of because of the revision.

If you want a longer than 7 year generation for the Switch then the crystal ball is foggy with data-free speculation.

I get you being deeply invested in whether or not this device is a revision, but the discussion doesn’t have a lot farther to go. There is zero hard data about Nintendo’s marketing plan for the device, and a year of tea leaf reading has changed that. Short of an announcement or a new, BIG leak, we won’t know.

No amount of further discussion will make the answer clearer, and it won’t change the minds of the existing folks who have settled into their opinions, and it will definitely have no influence on Nintendo :(

You can also use Occam's razor: if Nintendo goes through the trouble of making a device capable of things their current console clearly cannot do, it is likely that they intend to release software that the current console clearly cannot handle. Otherwise, they would just be making a gift to third parties and that's quite a stretch knowing how Nintendo operates.
 
Speaking for myself--

I want to know if the games coming out in the next 2-4 years will be playable on the Switch I already own. If this is just a Switch Pro then many future games, with some New3DS-style exceptions, will work on the base Switch. If this is a true successor then Nintendo may move away from the old SKU and make new games for their new hardware. If they do cross-gen / iterative Apple-style compatibility then that's a different story.

I don't really care about better graphics on Nintendo games that I already think look great or impossible ports that I would prefer to play on other hardware anyway. I am happy with the current Switch and want to know how long the ride will last. Whether this is a pro or a successor is substantively important to me.
Expect the new machine to be a New 3DS situation, regardless of how it's marketed. Still, aside from some games exclusive to the new machine, Switch will keep receiveing cross-gen games and Nintendo will probably keep releasing their games on both machines for 1-2 years.
 
Expect the new machine to be a New 3DS situation, regardless of how it's marketed. Still, aside from some games exclusive to the new machine, Switch will keep receiveing cross-gen games and Nintendo will probably keep releasing their games on both machines for 1-2 years.

This is exactly what I see Nintendo first party doing. By design they will make sure most of the games during the transition period can run well enough on og switch, with sacrifices (hopefully) within reason.

I see 3rd parties being the ones to be putting out the most Drake exclusive games by far, as ports from the other consoles, with og switch versions only if they can actually make it reasonably happen.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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