StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Hermii]

Just want to inject a little pessimism into the thread - anybody still wonder if Nintendo would consider not using OLED for a revision, simply to keep the OLED model as uniquely appealing in handheld?

Nintendo denied claims that the OLED model was more profitable than the current Switch despite the higher price, but is that because of the screen or was there some other aspect? Would that be enough of a reason to remove it in a new product ?

I still find them calling it the OLED model an odd choice unless:

1. They drop that part of the naming convention and stop production of red box Switch this year
2. It’s the only device with an OLED, or
3. The new device is clearly differentiated from the existing product line eg. Super Switch.

1. Nintendo denied claims that the OLED model was more profitable than the current Switch

No they didnt. The denied it had a higher profit margin. Two different things. Profit margin is what percentage of the price is a profit, not how many currency units.

2. The name perfectly conveyed what it is. A switch with an oled panel.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

Chip Shortage Will Continue Into 2023, Say Analysts and Executives

As automotive companies work through a second year of supply chain woes, executives say that these conditions will last for another few years.

www.google.com

Car chips shortages still are expected to continue, dont think we should expect shortages to be solved only because some companies orders have decreased

Car chip shortage will be largely fixed by year end. It’s already much better in May-June. I call companies about the car production topic almost weekly. I know what I’m talking about.

I repeat: chip shortage will not last into 2023 for most things.

 

[karmitt]

1. Nintendo denied claims that the OLED model was more profitable than the current Switch

No they didnt. The denied it had a higher profit margin. Two different things. Profit margin is what percentage of the price is a profit, not how many currency units.

2. The name perfectly conveyed what it is. A switch with an oled panel.

You’re too hung up on trying to correct something that doesn’t change the meaning of any of my post. That particular bit was me trying to think about why they might remove it in a future model.

I understand the name works right now - the main question was how does the name fit in the future landscape, where there exists another Switch with an OLED screen

 

[metonight]

Car chip shortage will be largely fixed by year end. It’s already much better in May-June. I call companies about the car production topic almost weekly. I know what I’m talking about.

I repeat: chip shortage will not last into 2023 for most things.

Do you know if it will also get better for current consoles who are known to struggle with the chip shortage? (PS5/XSX)

 

[Hosermess]

You’re too hung up on trying to correct something that doesn’t change the meaning of any of my post. That particular bit was me trying to think about why they might remove it in a future model.

I understand the name works right now - the main question was how does the name fit in the future landscape, where there exists another Switch with an OLED screen

Who knows. Not likely that they're going to call Drake the Switch - OLED PRO model or anything. I don't think they trademarked the OLED model, but I would guess they would trademark the eventual Drake name. Even if they discontinue the redbox Switch, there's no harm in sticking with the OLED model name.

And they're not going to not give Drake an OLED screen cause it might make the naming a little trickier.

 

[Eradicate]

Now that I'm imagining a July reveal, I wonder what this upgraded Switch would look like design-wise when it first premieres. Assuming they'll market it as a "Pro" or whatever other label they call it, I can't see it being the exact same exterior but with beefier components, because that'd obviously look too visually similar to the regular switch or even OLED model. At the same time, I can't see it being anything too different so as to not look visually way out-of-place from the entire switch family... Thoughts?

One potential major change could be using a thin wraparound kickstand instead of the panel on the OLED, which could afford the unit some marginal internal space

I like the idea that, not being satisfied by only chasing graphics, Nintendo takes each hardware revision as an opportunity to improve that goddamn kickstand.

I'm conflicted in the same way. I don't see them differentiating it too much because I'd assume they'd want it to be compatible with the current joycon and dock (I was even thinking for a while that the OLED probably uses the chassis meant for Drake, though not so much anymore) but at the same time I could see Nintendo wanting Drake to be a unit that you look at and know it's something different immediately.

Kickstand included, there's one certain thing that this model will have that Nintendo can't go without: joy-con drift.
Without it, it cannot be a Nintendo certified product.

TBH I’m expecting it to be a different material. Aluminum or something.

Haha, love all that about the kickstand! Maybe they'll just get rid of it outright and just package in/sell some sort of PopSocket-like thing to not bother anymore!

Love the interesting suggestions here!

Someone a few (many, now?) pages back mentioned a company doing work on a new circle pad to use electromagnetism. Assuming they go with something like "Switch Pro," and considering the "Pro" controller, it kind of seems they'd have upgraded joycons. Maybe they are ergonomic, at least slightly (like some 3rd party solutions out there) with better sticks, possibly better button switches, etc. But, the connection/grating inside of them would match the normal joycons, so any previously purchased joycons would still be completely compatible with the new model to lock in and use as a handheld as normal!

On the body of it, a smaller bezel would be nice!

I also kind of wonder if they'd have a new dock with a Switch Pro? Maybe another USB port, latest HDMI version, an integrated SD card slot for storage, etc.

Just want to inject a little pessimism into the thread >:] Anybody still wonder if Nintendo would consider not using OLED for a revision, simply to keep the OLED model as uniquely appealing in handheld?

Nintendo denied claims that the OLED model was more profitable had a higher profit margin than the current Switch, but is that because of the screen or was there some other aspect? Would that be enough of a reason to remove it in a new product ?

I still find them continuing* to call it the OLED model an odd choice unless:

1. They drop that part of the naming convention and stop production of red box Switch this year
2. It’s the only device with an OLED, or
3. The new device is clearly differentiated from the existing product line eg. Super Switch.

*Edited for clarity.

Hmm...it really may depend on how they position the newer one! It does "seem" like the OLED is doing really well though! They might, just by virtue of it being out, have to keep calling it OLED for the time being until, say, they start phasing out the OG Switches. Then, they could do a repackage, just calling it the Switch "Base" or something, and just list OLED on it as a feature...that is, if they want to make the current OLED model the normal one! But, who knows! If OLED screens become a standard part of the console base going forward, I just figure they'd remove it from the model name itself but boldly declare it as a console feature on the box and advertising! Or...just going really weird, the "New" models (half-generation models, that is, kind of like 3DS to New 3DS) feature OLED screens while the "new" iterations/upgrades stay using LCD-type screens. Make it a preference choice for consumers if they want that or not. That's just me rambling though, haha, just based on stuff you hear about with TVs at the moment!

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

Do you know if it will also get better for current consoles who are known to struggle with the chip shortage? (PS5/XSX)

Yes, it’s all connected. Production was constrained - different places at different times - while everybody was double ordering various electronics. As economies shift consumption back from goods to services + recession, I now expect the bull whip to go the other way.

Sony themselves expect shipments to increase about 50% this year.

 

[Raccoon]

Just want to inject a little pessimism into the thread >:] Anybody still wonder if Nintendo would consider not using OLED for a revision, simply to keep the OLED model as uniquely appealing in handheld?

With a product lineup like this, you never want to force an arbitrary compromise. Having to choose between the powerful model with a shit screen (and the LCD Switches do have shit screens, they've always been shit screens) and the substantially weaker model with a good screen would be disastrous for the Switch family.

Naming is easy to fix, a massive flaw in your value proposition is not.

 

[kimbo99]

So the logic about the increased raw materials is that Nintendo lowered their projection for Switch shipments despite gathering more raw materials, therefore a new model of some kind is imminent?

 

[Serif]

With a product lineup like this, you never want to force an arbitrary compromise. Having to choose between the powerful model with a shit screen (and the LCD Switches do have shit screens, they've always been shit screens)

I disagree. The OLED has a fantastic display but the original Switch's LCD is not shit. Analyses comparing it with the n3DS's IPS displays demonstrate it has good color and better contrast. We've come a long way from the nonsense screen lottery of the new 3DS. Otherwise I would've hopped on the OLED upgrade immediately.

I expect Drake to use OLED anyway since they can reuse parts, it'll show off native 720p games wonderfully and it'll help justify the price.

 

[Raccoon]

I disagree. The OLED has a fantastic display but the original Switch's LCD is not shit. Analyses comparing it with the n3DS's IPS displays demonstrate it has good color and better contrast. We've come a long way from the nonsense screen lottery of the new 3DS. Otherwise I would've hopped on the OLED upgrade immediately.

I expect Drake to use OLED anyway since they can reuse parts, it'll show off native 720p games wonderfully and it'll help justify the price.

the air gap really washes out the colors though

 

[Skittzo]

So the logic about the increased raw materials is that Nintendo lowered their projection for Switch shipments despite gathering more raw materials, therefore a new model of some kind is imminent?

They lowered their hardware projections while increasing the total value of their raw materials by about 10x YOY. This suggests they're either:

1) stockpiling raw components with no way (yet) to turn them into products
2) accelerating their holiday production schedule by acquiring the raw materials early and then beginning mass production soon after
3) preparing to launch a new, much higher value (read: priced) product

or some combination of the above.

 

[Legion of Primes]

They lowered their hardware projections while increasing the total value of their raw materials by about 10x YOY. This suggests they're either:

1) stockpiling raw components with no way (yet) to turn them into products
2) accelerating their holiday production schedule by acquiring the raw materials early and then beginning mass production soon after
3) preparing to launch a new, much higher value (read: priced) product

or some combination of the above.

4. All this in preparation for Stinky Horse Person game

 

[Golden Darkness]

So Nvidia thinks it might now expect lower demand for their upcoming cards and wants to cut back their wafer orders.

NVIDIA reportedly wants to cut TSMC orders for next-gen RTX 40 GPUs 5nm wafers amid lower demand - VideoCardz.com

TSMC customers want to lower their silicon orders The consumer electronics market is slowing down rapidly. The interest in new TVs, mobile phones and PCS and has declined as quickly as pandemic has ‘ended’ and inflation struck global markets. Both AMD and NVIDIA are revising their TSMC orders...

videocardz.com

 

[Smaggledaggle]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter has some choice words about an announcement of a new Switch console:

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

With the upcoming economic recession + people being poorer in general and the rise of inflation, I wonder if Nintendo will be wary of charging $400+ for the console. While previously I was thinking that even at $450 the console would sell like hot cakes, the general WW and economic situation has changed. COVID boost has largely passed and we're now suffering the effects of the economic choices made to counter the impending disaster COVID would cause to the general economy and populace while WFH frenzy has largely passed as people mostly return to offices/presential work. We're seeing multiple reports of ease of availability for components + failing prices while there's also reports of cancellation of wafer orders at TSMC for consumer facing products. Samsung also slashed their smartphone production due to slow sales and high inventory. In such uncertation times and situation, where people might shift their purchases towards services/essential products, I would be wary of introducing a much higher priced console. Given that we also expect Switch, due to it's enormous userbase, to continue to receive support from Nintendo and 3rd-party, the current Switch will also be competing with the Next Switch. I'm now predicting $399 max for this upcoming device. Nintendo can't change release date too much or shelve the device it due to contracts already in place with their partners and 3rd-parties, so it will be interesting to see how they will plan things.

I suppose if Nintendo had knowledge of how 2022 would shape economic wise, they would post-pone the device to 2024 CY and maintain the high engagement Switch has and introduce conter-measures to maintain it's high sales(Like price-cuts). But who knows.

 

[Legion of Primes]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter has some choice words about an announcement of a new Switch console:

So I expect the opposite of their post to happen then, good

 

[TheoD]

so the chip shortage will be solved by the end of the year?

 

[metonight]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter

sarcasm?

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

so the chip shortage will be solved by the end of the year?

Some sectors are still constrained, but the combination of economic recession, lower demand as we pass the COVID boost and increased production means the availability of eletronics/hardware is becoming much better. To the point some companies are even slashing orders/cancelling(Like Samsung Mobile) due to high inventory and slow sales.

 

[IamPeacock]

Some sectors are still constrained, but the combination of economic recession, lower demand as we pass the COVID boost and increased production means the availability of eletronics/hardware is becoming much better. To the point some companies are even slashing orders/cancelling(Like Samsung Mobile) due to high inventory and slow sales

Imagine demand is getting pre-covid and all of those newly build factories will become useless.

Is that a possibility?

 

[Dekuman]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter has some choice words about an announcement of a new Switch console:

did she predict the last direct, or piggy back off Nate again?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

You know, from OLED release in October 2021 to say March 2023 is 18 months.


That’s not uncommon to happen


And sufficient enough time I think.

(Long ass time though)

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Imagine demand is getting pre-covid and all of those newly build factories will become useless.

Is that a possibility?

I don't think it's a possibility because, as TSMC said, even though consumer-facing hardware is suffering from weakening demand, others areas still have huge demand like HPC or Automotive. These companies creates new fabs with very secure forecasts, as they can't spent vast amounts of money on useless fabs. They probably have contracts or forecast that ensure their new capacity will be used. Eletronic will keep seeing increased demand due to the fact the world itself is becoming more reliant on them, as everything nowadays do have a eletronic components one way or another. There's also government interest in these fabs for national security of military use.

However the weakening of consumer-facing is problematic indeed, as those are the ones who usually are the first to use bleeding edge nodes. But non-consumer facing/B2B usage of bleeding edge nodes is increasing, so it probably won't be a problem.

 

[Deleted member 2551]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter has some choice words about an announcement of a new Switch console:

 

[Erimgard]

did she predict the last direct, or piggy back off Nate again?

They were all-in on Nintendo doing the usual June 15 Direct until long after Nate, Alanah, and others said 29th/28th
They also said it would feature BOTW2
Then suddenly on June 12th, the Direct was "Delayed"

 

[Skittzo]

did she predict the last direct, or piggy back off Nate again?

She was adamant it was happening the 15th.

She knows nothing, gets things wrong pretty much every time.

 

[Smaggledaggle]

sarcasm?

glad someone could tell

 

[Bosintang]

I'll be ok if it's 450 in the beginning. The machine would probably be easier to find, and considering the performance which are being discussed, it would be justified in my opinion.

 

[chocolate_supra]

I'm starting to get curious now on why people are so adamant on determining if it's a pro or successor. Let's play out some hypotheticals:

The rumoured specs are 100% accurate. Impossible ports now made possible. Elden Ring coming to the next Switch in early 2024. Fall Guys now runs either 1440p60 or 4K30 based on performance or graphics mode option. Regardless of whether it's a pro or a successor, you are going to be inclined to purchase it (especially given we're all on a Nintendo enthusiast forum).

If Nintendo markets it as a pro, does that disappoint you? That after six years on market, it's still not an even more substantial leap than what it already is? Capable of AAA titles using modern graphical wizardry to provide you upscaled 4K content nigh imperceptible from native 4K images, taken on the go to improve IQ on the 720p screen so you more frequently experience a rock solid 30/40*/60fps game? (*In this scenario I hope the screen offers this refresh rate, just roll with it)

If Nintendo markets it as a successor, does it excite or frighten you? Yes, this beast of a machine is ready to stand toe to toe with Xbox Series and PS5 consoles. It will still receive the same games like before if it were a pro, and those same games will still likely be delayed a year or more after release like before on the other consoles (Alan Wake, Life is Strange, Elden Ring, etc.). A successor is more likely to ask for a higher price tag though, far more than a pro revision could.

Or is it, at the end of the day, a desire to simply know more than what Nintendo/Bloomberg/insiders/leakers are currently offering? Just to set your expectations that for a portable device that as of 2017 has more than a million times the RAM and harddrive of the Apollo Guidance Computer?

I'd like you to know I had a full 3 paragraph (and honestly one of the paragraphs was as long as probably 2 or 3 by itself) response to this but I backspaced the whole thing in the interest of not wrecking this thread.

 

[Crusters]

Yes, it’s all connected. Production was constrained - different places at different times - while everybody was double ordering various electronics. As economies shift consumption back from goods to services + recession, I now expect the bull whip to go the other way.

Sony themselves expect shipments to increase about 50% this year.

If this is something you have experience/knowledge of, how cognizant In advance, are companies typically aware of these changes? Do their analysis provide enough confidence to take action on this change in advance? Or do they have to wait to see which way the wind blows?

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Good ol' reliable leaker SamusHunter has some choice words about an announcement of a new Switch console:

Can we not post these people if their track record is so horrendous that carnival prediction machines are more correct than them. Let’s not give them the time of day.

 

[Hermii]

Can we not post these people if their track record is so horrendous that carnival prediction machines are more correct than them. Let’s not give them the time of day.

If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.

 

[Skittzo]

If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.

Hey at least the random Twitter accounts don't have a bad track record, just no track record

(I do agree with you though)

 

[ILikeFeet]

If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.

samushunter is a known fraud though, there's no benefit in continuing to post them, even for mockery

 

[Awesomegames23]

She was adamant it was happening the 15th.

She knows nothing, gets things wrong pretty much every time.

Funny part is, apparently it was the 28th for many weeks. Samushunter tweeted their insider info was still valid in late May, so when they confirmed a June 15th Direct (just after the reddit leak), it must have been because their late May insider info said the Direct was June 15th. However, we know that even in late May, June 15th was not the date of the Direct, it was going to be June 28th even before late May. It’s not a mistake on their insiders’ end because the Direct was never delayed.

So there are 2 reasonable possibilities, their insider purposely gave them fake info, or they don’t have an insider. My guess is the later.

 

[hologram]

Can this be threadmarked, please?
I dunno who to tag because usually when I ask for a threadmark I'm joking.

LTTP here but any mod/admin can threadmark, as can the OP. In this case I would defer to @Dakhil on whether or not they want it threadmarked

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

If we didn’t post random Chinese twitter accounts, you would have a point.

You know exactly who I’m talking and it has nothing to do with random Chinese Twitter accounts. Unless we are also saying they are on the same level as the aforementioned “leaker” post.

 

[tarsus]

They were all-in on Nintendo doing the usual June 15 Direct until long after Nate, Alanah, and others said 29th/28th
They also said it would feature BOTW2
Then suddenly on June 12th, the Direct was "Delayed"

She was adamant it was happening the 15th.

She knows nothing, gets things wrong pretty much every time.

She doubled down on the 15th because of the Neon White leak, which makes it even funnier since that was based on an erroneous assumption. Then Alanah's 29th date came out and she had to scramble to "confirm" with her sources that there's indeed been a last minute "delay".

The other time SamusHunter messed up badly due to misinterpreting other people's comments is with Bill Trinen's BotW2 interview. During E3 2021, Trinen mentioned how we'd hear more about the game plays "in the coming months to the next year", which got interpreted to mean they'll going to show something in 2021. With TGA being the last big event of 2021, SamusHunter went all in on a big TGA Zelda announcement, which seems hilarious now in hindsight. It's pretty clear that Trinen's comments were an offhand remark and not gospel of Nintendo's marketing team.

 

[Blue Monty]

I'll be ok if it's 450 in the beginning. The machine would probably be easier to find, and considering the performance which are being discussed, it would be justified in my opinion.

The issue with price is mid-long term not the start, nowadays hardware doesnt drop price as much as it used so would Nintendo be able to deliver a 350$ console 2-3 years in? If it cant then 450$ seems too high

 

[sagadego20]

please stop giving that samus putz anytime of the day

 

[bloopland33]

Man I’m trying not to get my hopes up but if this thing did indeed make 2022…we’d be guaranteed enhanced Sonic Frontiers and might even get 60fps Nier. There’s just a lot coming in the near future that would be awesome if the timing worked out so devs took advantage.

(Like, for how long it already took, I could’ve waited for Ezio for one more year to get some of those rough edges smoothed out. But I doubt they’ll go back and touch that one now. So come on 2022…)

 

[Dakhil]

LTTP here but any mod/admin can threadmark, as can the OP. In this case I would defer to @Dakhil on whether or not they want it threadmarked

I wouldn't mind that post being threadmarked.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Hmm, might as well do a recap, as I'm sure that you're not the only reader wondering 'what's all this nm business in relation to the Switch'
First off, 'x nm' used to literally refer to the length of one aspect of a transistor, but that stopped being the case for a while now (was the decoupling back in the 90's or 2000's?). The nomenclature continues on as a matter of 'eh, might as well'. They're just labels/branding now.
Next, they can generally be organized in terms of generations. I'll refer to the ITRS roadmap from 2017 for generation names.
Generally speaking, each generation should offer significant improvements, while nodes that are just refinements/variants within the same generation should offer minor to moderate improvements.

22nm:
TSMC 20nm node is part of this generation. The original Nintendo Switch (v1, Erista) was manufactured on this node. For consistency with the rest of this post, I'll state that this is 0 generations removed from the first Switch.

14nm:
TSMC 16FF/12FF are part of this generation. Switch-wise, v2/Mariko/Redbox/Lite/OLED. 1 generation removed from the start.
(PS4 Slim/Pro were also made on this node, I think?)
I should point out that the TSMC 20->16FF/12FF jump was huge for power savings, both on paper (probably fair to ballpark it as 2 later generations worth of gains) and in practice, as demonstrated with the v2. There was a major shift in transistor design (the FF stands for FinFET), thus the even better than usual improvement.

10nm:
2 generations removed from the start.
There was a very short lived TSMC 10FF node. On paper, gains weren't shabby actually, but they phased this one out once they got the next generation going.
Samsung's entry here starts with 10 LPE and gets refined over and over. 10LPE->10LPP->8LPP->8LPU. Yes, Samsung's 8nm nodes are just 10nm refinements. Nvidia's Orin is on... one of those Samsung 8 nm nodes. As far as we are aware, Drake's design is an offshoot of Orin, which is why our speculation starts here.

7nm:
3 generations removed from the start.
TSMC's entry here starts with N7, then there are a few variants. N6 is a N7 refinement/variant. On paper, the gains in power efficiency that TSMC advertises for the jump from 16FF/12FF to N7 are... about the same as 20->16FF/12FF. That's more to highlight that wow, 20->16FF/12FF was good. The PS5/Xbox Series consoles are made on this node family. We are aware that Nvidia has/had some capacity on N7 because of the A100 gpu.
Samsung's entry here starts with 7LPP and also gets refined over and over. 7LPP->(6LPP)->5LPE->5LPP->(4LPE). 6LPP is in parentheses because eventually it disappears from presentations. 4LPE is in parentheses because eventually Samsung reclassifies it to being a member of the next generation
Consensus is that TSMC's the better of the two for this generation.

5nm:
4 generations removed from the start. As of today, this is the latest generation with products out on the market.
For TSMC, the N5 and N4 nodes are part of this generation. N5 started production in 2020, N5P in 2021, N4 this year, and N4P's either later this year or next year. The N5 family is one of the suspects since purportedly, Nvidia spent multiple billions of USD to secure capacity on this family for their next generation of products.
For Samsung, 4LPE and 4LPP are officially their entries in this generation.
Again, consensus is that TSMC's the winner of this generation.

3nm:
5 generations removed from the start.
For TSMC, N3 is expected to start volume production by the end of this year, with products hitting the market next year. TSMC is still using FinFET (the transistor design approach they first started using back in 16FF) here.
For Samsung, 3GAE supposedly started production this week. 3GAP is scheduled for next year. Here, they're attempting Gate-All-Around, which is the next major shift in transistor design.
Obviously, products aren't out yet. But, Samsung's latest promised gains for 3GAE and 3GAP are... not encouraging. The short of it is, if N3 and 3GAP deliver exactly according to the promises of today, I'd expect TSMC to stay winners.

2nm:
6 generations removed from the start. Too far off in the future for Drake, but hell, might as well finish things.
For TSMC, N2 is where they're attempting the transition from FinFET to Gate-All-Around. It is expected to start production in late 2025, so it probably means product in 2026.
As of last October, Samsung claimed that 2GAP will start mass production in 2025.

You know, thinking about this.

According to TPU, PS1 had the 600nm process? I’m not sure how accurate that is though but whatever. It was 5 gens of change there.


PS2 to 3 was also 8 generations of difference. From 250nm to 90nm.

From 90nm PS3 to 28nm PS4 was 5 gens of difference.

Anyway, OG XBox to 360 was from 180nm to 90nm, or 5 generations of difference.

But 360 to One was 8 generations of difference


From PS4/X1 to PS5/XS it was 28nm>7nm, so 5 gens of difference.


They were fortunate enough to get around at least 5 gens of node enhancement between whatever they are on to whatever is next. PS2 and 3 and 3 to 4 were Sony’s biggest jumps. But that won’t last anymore. Next may be 4 generational enhancements but that depends on Sony and AMD. So they would need to lean more on smart methods to get better/ more noticeable enhancements.

Likewise, MS has been able to get at least 5 gens of enhancements between one platform and another. Next may be 4 for all we know. Food for thought.




With respect to Nintendo, Wii U to switch just so happened to be 4 generations of difference. This was more of a coincidence though. I believe the Wii U was 40nm?

But GCN to Wii was only 5 gens of enhancements. And Wii to Wii U was 6 gens of enhancements.


Note: these numbers are from TPU, they may not be fully representative. Take with grains of salt.
I could also be mistaken in how I interpreted, I know some nodes (16/14) are grouped as one. Unsure which one it is also applicable here.

 

[Magic-Man]

I've been saying the same exact thing as SamusHunter but no one pays attention to me smh my head

 

[Mr Swine]

I don’t see Nintendo producing Switch Oled model when Drake is in full production. They will have the Red Box model, Lite and the Drake model (occupying the premium space).

So…

Premium: Drake at $429

Budget: Lite $199

Red Box Switch $299

at least 3 years later Nintendo discontinued Red Box and Lite in favor for Drake versions

 

[Hosermess]

 

[Brofield]

I'd like you to know I had a full 3 paragraph (and honestly one of the paragraphs was as long as probably 2 or 3 by itself) response to this but I backspaced the whole thing in the interest of not wrecking this thread.

I mean, if you have no problem sending it to me as a DM, I'm genuinely curious! Truthfully I agree with @ReddDreadtheLead that it's most likely innate human tribalism in wanting to categorize the box one way or another, but I would also love additional perspectives like others offered if there is something I'm overlooking with people's desires to know ahead of time what quantifiable differences there are between the idea of a pro and successor haha

 

[Crusters]

You know, thinking about this.

According to TPU, PS1 had the 600nm process? I’m not sure how accurate that is though but whatever. It was 5 gens of change there.

Oh man 600 nm. from the 70's to the 90's just break neck progress. That was like two decades after HP's NMOS II solved the shrinking shmoos and busted through to the 5 micron barrier from um (I uh can't find the fancy 'u' on my phone) paving the way to nm, with performance gains way way way beyond what they were targeting.... And then erupting in the NMOS/cmos wars.... I think it was Fujitsu cmos that leapfrogged NMOS with a 700nm process in 87. Crazy series of events.

Lol, they did it for $6000 calculators, but it exploded into everything.

I feel like we are on this precipice again.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

If this is something you have experience/knowledge of, how cognizant In advance, are companies typically aware of these changes? Do their analysis provide enough confidence to take action on this change in advance? Or do they have to wait to see which way the wind blows?

I make forecasts for a living.

Being right about the future is hard, but I think that industry experts tend to get things more wrong than right because they are too bogged down in the details and cannot see the forest for the trees.

I think, broadly, this is largely a human psychology problem. Most people are linear thinkers, looking at how things are today, instead of trying to look around the corner.

This is not a revolutionary call. The business cycle is always coupled with an inventory cycle. We had a record surge in demand during Covid, now we have a record surge in capacity expansion, just as demand is either normalizing or falling below the trend line. Everyone likes to believe in the occasional new normal when it suits their interest; in this case it was tech and software companies. A new normal is exceptionally rare - even e-commerce penetration is declining.